BKNG 第一上海证券有限公司 www.mystockhk.com 瑞银最近也开始上调了标普 500 指数的目标价至 5400 点，年内还有低个位数的上 涨空间。华尔街资深分析师 Yardeni 的评论最近也开始转牛，认为标普 500 指数有 可能在两年内突破 6500 点，还有 30%的涨幅，但是也提醒避免股市过热导致的崩 溃，尤其是围绕 AI 的炒作。总之现在华尔街都开始撕报告了，改变年初对美股的 保守预测，都开始大幅多次上调。 但也有不好的消息，美国商业地产法拍数量有所增加，有可能影响中小银行的股价 从而间接导致市场情绪连带下跌。 季报大超预期，对整个科技股乃至整个指数都有很强有力的支撑作用，现在英伟达 的市值也接近 2 万亿美元。但市场有少数声音还是对英伟达表现出了一些忧虑，主 要是担心四大云客户在 2025 年之后，在下游应用创收没有达到预期的情况下，可 能会缩减支出，这样会影响英伟达的增速。德意志银行和瑞银都表达了对英伟达未 来收入增速放缓的担忧。 用户640989118于2024-02-28日下载，仅供本人内部使用，不可传播与转载 最近有个好消息，要取代 Walgreens 进入道琼斯指数成分股 ...

瑞声科技（2018） 更新报告 买入 2024年4月2日 23年业绩略有下跌，声学有望升规升配，结构件业务增势强劲 陈晓霞  23 年业绩略有下跌：公司 2023 年全年实现收入 204.2 亿元（人民币，下 852-25321956 同），同比下降 1.0%。毛利率为 16.9%，同比下滑 1.4 个百分点。净利 润 7.4 亿，同比下降 9.9%，基本符合预期，主要是因为全球智能手机恢 xx.chen@firstshanghai.com.hk 复不及预期，消费需求疲软。展望 24 年，智能手机市场微复苏，公司 主要数据 IoT、AR/VR 及车载领域均获成果，尤其车载领域取得定点项目和收购 PSS公司，将助力公司全球汽车行业渗透。 行业 TMT  光学业务稳健增长，声学有望升规升配：光学业务实现收入 36.3 亿，同 股价 26.25港元 比增长12.7%，得益于塑胶镜头和光学模组业务产品升级进展顺利以及在 目标价 29.04港元 中高端机型份额的提升，公司全年塑胶镜头和 WLG 镜头出货量同比分别 （+10.6%） 提升 20%和 22%。毛利率为-13%，同比持平。公司去库存进展良好，预计 今年一 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for CRRC Times Electric (3898) with a target price of HKD 38.1, indicating a potential upside of 53.6% from the current price [2]. Core Views - The report highlights a recovery in rail transit and rapid growth in new equipment, with a net profit growth of 21.5% in 2023, driven by a revenue increase of 20.9% to RMB 21.8 billion [2]. - The rail transit business is showing signs of recovery, with a significant increase in national railway passenger volume, which rose by 128.8% year-on-year, surpassing pre-pandemic levels [2]. - The emerging equipment business is experiencing high growth rates, particularly in power semiconductor devices and new energy vehicle components, with some segments growing over 69% [2]. Financial Summary - In 2023, the company reported revenues of RMB 21.8 billion, with a net profit of RMB 3.1 billion, translating to an earnings per share (EPS) of RMB 2.19 [2][7]. - The revenue breakdown shows rail transit business revenue at RMB 12.9 billion (up 2%) and emerging equipment business revenue at RMB 8.7 billion (up 69.6%) [2]. - The forecast for 2024-2026 projects revenues of RMB 24.5 billion, RMB 27.8 billion, and RMB 30.6 billion, with respective growth rates of 12.4%, 13.6%, and 10.0% [2][7]. Business Segments - The rail transit business is expected to benefit from ongoing demand for locomotive and train replacements, with a total of 22,400 locomotives and 4,427 standard train sets in operation by the end of 2023 [2]. - The emerging equipment segment focuses on two main areas: transportation and energy, with significant investments in research and development, amounting to RMB 2.02 billion in 2023, representing 9.3% of total revenue [2]. - The company has secured new orders for photovoltaic inverters totaling 18.6 GW, ranking among the top three in the industry [2].

比亚迪电子（0285） 更新报告 买入 2024年04月02日 陈晓霞 完成收购捷普，汽车电子迎高质发展，不断拓宽业务边界 852-25321956  2023 年净利润增长 118%：比亚迪电子2023年收入1300亿元， xx.chen@firstshanghai.com.hk 增长 21%；净利润 40.4 亿元，增长 118%；每股盈利 1.79 元人民 币，增长 118%。从收入结构看，消费电子零部件 136 亿，下滑 主要数据 3.7%；组装 837.8 亿，增长 23%；新型智能产品 184 亿，增长 21.3%；新能源汽车业务141亿，增长52%。 行业 TMT  完成捷普收购，提升消费电子竞争力：2023 年全球智能手机出 股价 28.85港元 货量下滑3.2%至11.7亿部。根据TechInsight的预测，2024年智 目标价 45港元 能手机出货量将恢复低单位数的增长。公司以158亿元人民币的代 价收购捷普位于成都、无锡的制造业务，于 2023 年 12 月 29 日完 (+54.6%) 成交割，这将增强公司在核心客户 A 的合作深度，增厚 2024 年的 股票代码 0285 收入 ...

华润万象生活（1209） 更新报告 买入 2024年4月2日 物管+商管双赛道高质量发 展，提升股东回报  2023年核心净利润同比增长31.2%：2024年公司收入录得147.7亿元，同比 罗凡环 增长22.9%。整体毛利率为31.8%，同比提升1.7个ppt。核心净利润同比增 852-25321962 长 31.2%至 29.2 亿元，核心净利润率提升 1.3 个 ppt 至 19.8%。全年股息每 Simon.luo@firstshanghai.com.hk 股 0.704 元，同比增长 60.4%，派息率 55.0%。截止 2023 年底，公司总合约 面积约4.4亿方，总在管面积约3.8亿方，在管面积中第三方占比由2022年 主要资料 底的56.3%提升至2023年底的59.2%。 行业 物业管理  商管毛利率大幅提升，领导地位更加稳固：期内商管航道收入为51.7亿元， 股价 24.75港元 同比增长 22.6%。毛利率提升 7.7 个ppt 至 58.4%。零售额同比增长 43.3%至 1812 亿元，同店可比增长 30.9%，零售额增速大幅优于社会消费品零售总额 目标价 43.20港元 增速。 ...

兖煤澳大利亚（3668） 更新报告 买入 2024年4月2日 产量逐季度恢复，公司业绩 符合预期  全年业绩符合预期，下半年产量回升：2023 年国际煤炭市场达到新的供需平 邹瀚逸 衡 ，煤炭价格回购理性，公司全年业绩同比下降。全年录得收入 77.8 亿澳元， 852-69539760 同比-26%。归母净利润为 18.2 亿澳元，同比-49%。主要受煤价下跌所至，公司 Robin.zou@firstshanghai.com.hk 全年动力煤均价为 211 澳元/吨，冶金煤为 356 澳元/吨，平均煤价为 232 澳元/ 吨，同比-39%。2023年公司积极恢复产能，H2煤炭产量恢复至历史高位。 陈晓霞  全年现金成本增长，下半年明显改善：由于公司产量减少原材料和用工成本 增长及公司额外增加机器和人员进行复产，公司全年现金成本为 96 澳元/吨， 852-25321956 同比增长 2%。其中中原材料基本持平为 33 澳元/吨；员工福利基本持平 22 澳 xx.chen@firstshanghai.com.hk 元/吨，同时运输费用及合约服务费分别上涨 1 澳元至 21 澳元/吨及 16 澳元/ 吨。虽然 ...

Investment Rating - Buy rating with a target price of HKD 98.09, implying a 32.4% upside from the current price of HKD 74.10 [1][3] Core Views - 2023 net profit of RMB 4.56 billion met expectations, with capacity utilization recovering to 100% [1] - Revenue declined 10.1% YoY to RMB 24.97 billion due to weak global consumer demand and customer destocking [1] - Gross margin improved 2.2ppt to 24.3%, driven by higher capacity utilization and overseas factory efficiency [1] - Effective tax rate dropped to 8.8% due to higher overseas profit contribution [1] - Final dividend of HKD 1.08 declared, representing a payout ratio of 60.3% [1] - Double-digit revenue growth expected in 2024 as destocking progresses and capacity utilization remains at 100% [3] Financial Performance - Revenue breakdown by product: sportswear -13.6%, casualwear -1.4%, underwear +30.2%, others -41.6% [2] - Revenue breakdown by region: Europe -19.1%, US -20.4%, Japan -6.4%, other regions -7.6%, China +0.7% [2] - Key customer growth: Nike -10.8%, Adidas -24.1%, Uniqlo +2.9%, Puma -28.1% [2] - Domestic brands' share increased to 11%, while Lululemon accounted for 2% of sales [2] - 2H23 revenue declined 5.5% YoY, with Q4 returning to positive growth [3] - 2H23 gross margin improved 3.1ppt QoQ to 25.8% [3] Forecasts - 2024 revenue forecast at RMB 28.15 billion, +12.8% YoY [4] - 2024 net profit forecast at RMB 5.37 billion, +17.8% YoY [4] - 2024 EPS forecast at RMB 3.57, +17.8% YoY [4] - 2024 dividend forecast at HKD 2.41, with payout ratio maintained at 60% [4] - 2024-2026 revenue CAGR forecast at 13.0% [4] - 2024-2026 net profit CAGR forecast at 17.8% [4] Industry and Company Positioning - The company operates in the apparel and textile industry [2] - It benefits from vertical integration, balanced domestic and overseas presence, and strong management execution [3] - The company is well-positioned as an industry leader with innovative product capabilities [3]

公司评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 2024年3月19日 星期二 【公司评论】 特斯拉（TSLA）：周报 李京霖 852-25321957 FSD Beta v12.3 开始大规模推送 Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 3月16日凌晨， Teslascope 分享称，FSD Beta v12.3 正在向美国数千辆车推送， 李倩 其中包括美国每个州的 FSD 测试版客户和东海岸的一些车辆。这波 v12 部署中包 852-25321539 含的所有车辆的软件版本都是 2023.44.30.8 和 2023.44.30.14。但在加拿大，本 Chuck.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 次更新目前仍仅向特斯拉员工开放，此前Teslascope 预计新的 FSD Beta很快就 陈晓霞 会在加拿大推出。 852-25321956 xx.chen@firstshanghai.com.hk 欧洲、美国 Model Y 价格上涨 特斯拉欧洲计划于3 月 22 日在欧洲国家提高 Model Y 的价格，价格上涨约 2,0 行业 汽车 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Telecom with a target price adjusted to HKD 5.2, reflecting a 27% upside potential from the current stock price of HKD 4.1 [2][3]. Core Views - China Telecom has entered a high-quality development phase focused on improving efficiency and returns, with service revenue expected to maintain good growth over the next three years. The reduction in capital expenditure is anticipated to enhance operating cash flow [2][3]. - The company emphasizes precise cost management and structural optimization, projecting profit growth to outpace revenue growth [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, China Telecom achieved revenue of CNY 513.6 billion (YoY +6.7%), with service revenue at CNY 465 billion (YoY +6.9%). EBITDA reached CNY 136.8 billion (YoY +5.0%), and net profit was CNY 30.4 billion (YoY +10.3%) [1][3]. - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio to over 75% over the next three years, with a dividend of CNY 0.23 per share in 2023 (YoY +19%) [1][3]. Business Segments - Mobile communication service revenue was CNY 195.7 billion (YoY +2.4%), with a mobile ARPU of CNY 45.4 (YoY +0.4%). The number of mobile users reached 408 million, with a net increase of 16.59 million users [1][3]. - The digital industry segment saw revenue of CNY 138.9 billion (YoY +17.9%), with Tianyi Cloud revenue at CNY 97.2 billion (YoY +67.9%), indicating rapid growth and a focus on upgrading to intelligent cloud services [1][3]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the capital expenditure for 2024 will be CNY 96 billion, accounting for less than 20% of service revenue, a decrease of 2.9% from the previous year [1][3]. - The company is expected to focus more on the quality of revenue growth in its cloud services, transitioning into a phase of high-quality development [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 21.43, indicating a potential upside of 21.8% from the current price of HKD 17.60 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 416.61 billion for 2023, a decrease of 1.33% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 123.84 billion, down 12.60% year-on-year, primarily due to declining international oil prices [1]. - The company achieved a net production of 678 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2023, an increase of 8.69% year-on-year, with a record high net proven reserves of 6,784 million barrels of oil equivalent [1]. - The company maintained a strong cost control with an average oil production cost of USD 28.83 per barrel, a decrease of 5.1% year-on-year [1]. - Capital expenditures for 2023 were raised to RMB 129.6 billion, an increase of 18.73% year-on-year, with plans for 2024 capital expenditures between RMB 125 billion and RMB 135 billion [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2023, the company reported revenues of RMB 416.61 billion and a net profit of RMB 123.84 billion, with a dividend payout of HKD 1.25 per share [1][5]. - The company forecasts revenues of RMB 440.23 billion, RMB 479.79 billion, and RMB 493.81 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits projected at RMB 134.57 billion, RMB 147.09 billion, and RMB 151.14 billion [2][5]. Production and Reserves - The company successfully discovered 9 new oil and gas fields and evaluated 22 oil and gas structures, maintaining its position as China's largest crude oil production base [1]. - The reserve replacement ratio reached 180%, with a stable reserve life of over 10 years for the past 7 years [1]. Cost Management - The company reported a decrease in operating costs, with a 10.7% reduction in taxes other than income tax and a 4.1% decrease in depreciation and amortization costs [1]. Capital Expenditure - The company plans to continue its strategy of increasing reserves and production while integrating green low-carbon projects with oil and gas production [1].