羅凡環 (852)25321962 Simon.luo@firstshanghai.com.hk | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|-------------|-----------|---------------------|--------------|-------|------------------|-------| | 圖表 1： IMF 全球經濟 GDP \nWorld Output Advanced Econom ies | 展望（%） 圖表 \n2023 3.2 | 2024E 3.2 | 2025E 3.2 | 2：美國 1 \n6.0 | 年、5 年和 | 10 | 年期國債利率 (%) | 6.0 | | | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.8 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 233.59 RMB, indicating a potential upside of 22.99% from the current price [2][4]. Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2024 results that met expectations, with revenue of 79.77 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 10.41%, and a net profit of 10.51 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 7% [1]. - The company holds a leading market share in the battery sector, achieving a battery shipment volume of 35.5 GWh in January-February 2024, a year-on-year increase of 44.9%, with a market share of 38.4% [1]. - The company is expanding its international presence through technology licensing agreements with major automakers like Ford, Tesla, and GM, and expects to achieve breakeven at its German factory in 2024 [1]. - The company launched the Tianheng energy storage system, which boasts zero degradation in power and capacity over five years, enhancing energy density and safety [1]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to generate revenues of 389.39 billion RMB, 469.91 billion RMB, and 526.13 billion RMB for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2]. - The forecasted net profits for the same years are 49.76 billion RMB, 58.59 billion RMB, and 65.30 billion RMB [2]. - The company’s cash flow remains strong, with operating cash flow of 28.4 billion RMB in Q1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 35% [1].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of HKD 51.40, representing a potential upside of 33.49% from the last closing price [2][18][66]. Core Insights - The company achieved a record revenue of RMB 1.12 billion in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 111.2%, with a positive gross margin of 8.4%, driven by significant growth in ADAS lidar sales [2][51][79]. - The global penetration rate of autonomous driving is expected to rise from 42.7% in 2022 to 84.6% by 2030, indicating a favorable market outlook for the company's products [2][92]. - The company has secured multiple orders from domestic and international OEMs, maintaining a market share of 55.3% in the lidar sector as of early 2024 [2][21][89]. - The company emphasizes self-developed chips to strengthen its technological moat and plans to expand its business into AI and robotics [2][23][84]. Financial Performance - In 2023, lidar product sales revenue increased by 141.2% to RMB 963.5 million, with ADAS lidar revenue soaring by 384.6% to RMB 777.1 million [2][56][58]. - The total sales volume of lidar products reached 259,600 units in 2023, with ADAS lidar sales accounting for 243,000 units [2][56][58]. - The company's gross margin improved significantly from -7.4% in 2022 to 8.4% in 2023, primarily due to higher margins from ADAS lidar products [2][79][81]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is recognized as the first globally to achieve mass production of automotive-grade solid-state lidar, with a strong focus on the ADAS market [2][21][89]. - The strategic shift towards ADAS applications has led to a significant increase in revenue share from 3.6% in 2020 to 69.4% in 2023 [2][61][88]. - The company plans to enhance its R&D capabilities, with a 107.6% increase in R&D spending in 2023, focusing on chip development and AI algorithms [2][84][85].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 5.24, representing a potential upside of 44.68% from the current price of HKD 3.62 [2][3]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for the year 2023 reached RMB 23.475 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.75%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 10.51% to RMB 1.187 billion due to soft supply-demand dynamics and lower prices for urea and other chemical products [1][4]. - The report anticipates a recovery in chemical product prices in 2024, driven by a projected increase in demand and the company's ongoing capacity expansion projects [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue**: RMB 23.475 billion in 2023, up 1.75% from 2022, with forecasts of RMB 23.999 billion in 2024 and RMB 26.427 billion in 2025 [4][5]. - **Net Profit**: RMB 1.187 billion in 2023, down 10.51% from 2022, with projections of RMB 1.484 billion in 2024 and RMB 1.650 billion in 2025 [4][5]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: RMB 0.969 in 2023, with expected increases to RMB 1.21 in 2024 and RMB 1.35 in 2025 [4][5]. - **Gross Margin**: 17.83% in 2023, slightly down from 18.84% in 2022, with expectations of improvement in future years [1][4]. Business Segment Performance - **Urea Segment**: Revenue increased by 1% to RMB 6.874 billion in 2023, with a 9% rise in sales volume but a 7% decline in average selling price [1]. - **Compound Fertilizer**: Revenue grew by 0.2% to RMB 6.130 billion, with a 16% increase in sales volume offset by a 13% drop in average selling price [1]. - **Methanol**: Revenue rose by 2% to RMB 2.339 billion, driven by a 9% increase in sales volume, although the gross margin was negative at -0.6% [1]. - **Melamine**: Revenue decreased by 19% to RMB 0.784 billion, with a significant drop in gross margin from 49% to 29% [1]. Capacity Expansion Projects - The company is progressing with new capacity projects, including a 500,000-ton nitro fertilizer plant in Henan and a 300,000-ton compound fertilizer plant in Guangxi, both expected to commence operations in 2024 [1][2]. - Additional projects include a 60,000-ton polyoxymethylene project in Xinjiang and an 800,000-ton synthetic ammonia and 1,150,000-ton urea project in Jiangxi, slated for completion by 2025 [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 39, representing a potential upside of 32.6% from the current price of HKD 23.5 [3][4]. Core Insights - The company achieved a core net profit growth of 2.9% year-on-year, with total revenue reaching RMB 251.1 billion, a 21.3% increase compared to the previous year [1][2]. - The development business sales increased by 1.9% to RMB 307 billion, supported by a strategic focus on high-tier cities [1][2]. - The company successfully issued two public REITs, enhancing its asset value release channels [1]. Financial Performance - Revenue for 2023 was RMB 251,137 million, up 21.3% from RMB 207,061 million in 2022 [2][4]. - The core net profit for 2023 was RMB 27,770 million, reflecting a 2.9% increase [2][4]. - The company declared a final dividend of RMB 1.243 per share, with a total annual dividend of RMB 1.441, marking a 2.9% increase [1]. Business Segments - The regular business revenue, which includes operational real estate and light asset management, grew significantly, contributing 15.6% to total revenue [1]. - The retail revenue from shopping centers surged by 44.2% to RMB 163.9 billion, with same-store sales growth of 31.2% [1]. - The company’s investment property land bank reached 1,004 million square meters, with 72% allocated to shopping centers [1]. Debt and Financial Structure - The weighted average financing cost decreased by 19 basis points to 3.56%, maintaining a competitive position in the industry [1]. - The net debt exposure in non-RMB currencies fell to 4.4%, the lowest level in recent years [1]. - The cash-to-short-term debt ratio stood at 1.49 times, indicating a strong liquidity position [1]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve core net profits of approximately RMB 287 million, RMB 315 million, and RMB 332 million for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively [1][2]. - The anticipated sales area for the next three years is about 42.2 million square meters, with 82% located in high-tier cities [1].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company is experiencing a continuous recovery in coal power profitability while accelerating the installation of renewable energy [1]. - The company achieved a revenue of 44.262 billion RMB in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.3%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.660 billion RMB, up 7.2% year-on-year [1]. - The coal power segment has significantly improved profitability, with a net profit of 928 million RMB, while hydropower faced a loss of 530 million RMB due to reduced water inflow [1]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.132 RMB per share, maintaining a high payout ratio [1]. - The company’s renewable energy capacity reached 13 GW in 2023, with a significant increase in wind and solar power sales [1]. - The average on-grid electricity price for new installations decreased by 1.5% for wind and 6.3% for solar [1]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 4.64 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 44% from the current price [1]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 44.262 billion RMB in 2023 to 49.893 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 12.7% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 2.660 billion RMB in 2023 to 4.523 billion RMB in 2024, representing a growth of 70.0% [2]. - The company’s gross profit margin is forecasted to improve from 41.5% in 2023 to 47.7% in 2024 [2]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 305.807 billion RMB in 2023 to 329.186 billion RMB in 2024 [2]. - The debt-to-equity ratio is expected to remain stable around 68.9% in 2023 and 70.7% in 2024 [2].

| --- | --- | |-------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | 20 ...

业绩增长再超预期，24 年目标稳步前行 i 茅台数字平台表现亮眼，直营占比持续提升：分渠道看，23FY 公司批发代理/ 直销分别收入 800/672 亿元，同比+7.5%/+36.2%，直销占比 45.7%，同比 +5.8pct，其中 i 茅台实现收入 224 亿元，同比+88.3%。公司通过 i 茅台实现营 销数字化改革成效显著，此外，预计期内公司企业团购渠道及商超直营渠道等亦 获得较为亮眼发展，助力公司维持高直销比重。单季度看，23Q4 批发代理/直销 收入分别为 233/210 亿元，同比+20.7%/+20.2%，直销占比为 47.4%，同比/环比 分别-0.1/+3.3pct。其中 Q4 单季 i 茅台单实现收入 75 亿元，同比大幅+119.3%。 盈利摘要 股价表现 买入 2024 年 4 月 11 日 贵州茅台（600519） 更新报告 量价齐升增长显著，茅台 1935 完成百亿冲刺：23FY 茅台酒/系列酒收入分别为 1,266/206 亿元，同比+17.4%/+29.4%，其中 23Q4 分别为 393/50 亿元，同比 +17.6%/+48.2%。分量价看，茅台酒/系列酒全年分别实现销量 ...

中国黄金国际（2099） 更新报告 买入 2024年4月12日 业绩由盈转亏，铜金价格持续走高，甲玛矿区全面复产在即  业绩由盈转亏：2023 年全年，公司实现总收入 4.59 亿美元，同 许尚青 比减少 58%；净亏损为 2300 万美元，同比由盈转亏。公司收入和 +852-25321539 利润的下滑主要由于甲玛矿山果朗沟尾矿库尾砂外溢，甲玛矿山已 tim.xu@firstshanghai.com.hk 于2023年3月27日起暂停生产影响了整体的产量和业绩。公司综 陈晓霞 合矿山经营利润率为 17.49%，与去年同期相比下滑 18.31 个百分 (852)25321956 点。公司 2023 年全年矿产铜产量为 2 万吨，同比下滑 76%，全年 矿产铜销售均价为 6989 美元/吨，同比下滑 4.23%；公司 2023 年 xx.chen@firstshanghai.com.hk 全年矿产金产量为 14.79 万盎司，同比下滑 38%，矿产金平均价格 主要资料 为1962美元/盎司，同比提升8.64%。 铜金价格持续走高：随着美联储降息预期的发酵，有色金属价格 行业 原材料 有了大幅度的提升。截至目 ...

| --- | --- | |-------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...