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一体化运营彰显盈利稳定性,煤价波动中的定海神针


First Shanghai Securities· 2024-04-10 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 37.49, indicating an 18% upside potential from the current price of HKD 31.85 [2][4]. Core Views - The company's integrated operations demonstrate stable profitability, acting as a stabilizing force amid coal price fluctuations. The high proportion of long-term contracts in coal sales helps smooth out price volatility, contributing to stable profit levels [1][2]. - The company has a strong focus on shareholder returns, maintaining a high dividend payout ratio of 69.5% [2][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved revenues of CNY 343.1 billion, a slight decrease of 0.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 64.6 billion, down 11.4% year-on-year. The proposed cash dividend is CNY 2.26 per share, totaling CNY 44.9 billion [1][5]. - The coal production reached 321 million tons, up 3.5% year-on-year, while coal sales volume increased by 7.7% to 450 million tons. The revenue from coal business was CNY 273.3 billion, a decline of 1.5% [1][5]. Operational Insights - The company’s coal production cost per ton decreased by 2.3% to CNY 162 due to significant reductions in labor costs in the fourth quarter [1]. - The proportion of long-term contracts in coal sales increased by 4.5 percentage points year-on-year, with the average price of long-term contracts only declining by 2.9%, which is less volatile compared to spot market prices [1][2]. Power Generation - The company’s total installed power generation capacity reached 45 GW, with 43 GW from coal-fired power. The power generation volume increased by 11% year-on-year, benefiting from new installations and a 5% reduction in unit electricity costs due to falling coal prices [1]. - The integrated coal and power operations significantly alleviate profitability pressures during periods of coal price volatility, with approximately 7 GW of coal power capacity still under construction [1][2]. Future Outlook - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are adjusted to CNY 63.3 billion, CNY 63.5 billion, and CNY 63.7 billion respectively, reflecting stable growth expectations [2][5].
集采影响充分消化,明星产品保持潜力,创新转型将步入密集收获期
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-04-10 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 8.61, representing a potential upside of 38.4% from the current price of HKD 6.22 [2]. Core Insights - The company has experienced a slowdown in sales growth in 2023, with revenue reaching CNY 31.45 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%. The gross profit was CNY 22.18 billion, with a gross margin of 70.5%, down 1.4 percentage points [1][4]. - The company is focusing on innovation and transformation, with R&D expenses increasing by 21.2% to CNY 4.83 billion, accounting for 18.8% of the revenue from the pharmaceutical segment. Over the next five years, more than 50 new products or indications are expected to be approved [2][5]. - The company is expanding its product portfolio, particularly in the neurology sector, where revenue grew by 12.1% to CNY 9.09 billion, now accounting for 35.4% of the pharmaceutical revenue [1][2]. Financial Summary - In 2023, the pharmaceutical segment generated revenue of CNY 25.64 billion, up 4.6%, while the vitamin C raw materials segment saw a significant decline in revenue to CNY 1.93 billion, down 23.7% [1]. - The company reported a net profit of CNY 5.87 billion, a decrease of 3.6%, while the adjusted net profit increased by 2.8% to CNY 6.28 billion, with an adjusted net profit margin of 20.0% [1][4]. - The company’s market capitalization is HKD 732 billion, with a total issued share capital of 11.903 billion shares [2].
周报
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-04-10 16:00
公司评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 2024年3月19日 星期二 【公司评论】 特斯拉(TSLA):周报 李京霖 852-25321957 FSD Beta v12.3 开始大规模推送 Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 3月16日凌晨, Teslascope 分享称,FSD Beta v12.3 正在向美国数千辆车推送, 李倩 其中包括美国每个州的 FSD 测试版客户和东海岸的一些车辆。这波 v12 部署中包 852-25321539 含的所有车辆的软件版本都是 2023.44.30.8 和 2023.44.30.14。但在加拿大,本 Chuck.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 次更新目前仍仅向特斯拉员工开放,此前Teslascope 预计新的 FSD Beta很快就 陈晓霞 会在加拿大推出。 852-25321956 xx.chen@firstshanghai.com.hk 欧洲、美国 Model Y 价格上涨 特斯拉欧洲计划于3 月 22 日在欧洲国家提高 Model Y 的价格,价格上涨约 2,0 行业 汽车 ...
火电盈利持续改善,新能源装机加速兑现
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-04-10 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 24, indicating a potential upside of 29% from the current price of HKD 18.62 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company's performance in 2023 met expectations, with revenue of HKD 1,033 million, remaining stable year-on-year, and a net profit of HKD 110 million, representing a 56.2% increase. The renewable energy segment contributed HKD 97 million in profit, up 12.5%, while the thermal power segment turned a profit of HKD 36 million, recovering from a loss of HKD 619 million [2][3]. - The report highlights significant improvements in thermal power profitability due to increased coal imports and a substantial drop in coal prices, leading to a 12.6% decrease in fuel costs year-on-year. The introduction of capacity pricing policies in 2024 is expected to further stabilize thermal power profitability [2][3]. - The renewable energy segment is projected to be the main profit contributor, with 5.3 GW of new renewable energy capacity added in 2023 and a target of 10 GW for 2024. The report notes a 12.4% increase in wind power generation and a 111.8% increase in solar power generation, despite a slight decrease in solar utilization hours [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of HKD 1,033 million, with a net profit of HKD 110 million, marking a 56.2% increase from the previous year. The renewable energy segment's profit was HKD 97 million, while thermal power generated a profit of HKD 36 million [2][4]. - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are HKD 144 million, HKD 162 million, and HKD 182 million, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 31%, 13%, and 13% [3][4]. Operational Highlights - The company added 5.3 GW of renewable energy capacity in 2023 and has a construction pipeline of 7.3 GW for wind and 6 GW for solar. The capital expenditure for 2024 is planned at HKD 59.9 billion, primarily for renewable energy projects [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong governance and operational efficiency, which have contributed to its improved financial performance and market position [3][4].
23年公司经调整股东应占溢利同比下降4.6%

First Shanghai Securities· 2024-04-10 16:00
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 18.5, indicating a potential upside of 29.3% from the current price of HKD 14.34 [3][4]. Core Insights - The company's adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 4.6% year-on-year in 2023, with total revenue increasing by 11.6% to RMB 17.034 billion. Non-COVID revenue rose by 37.7% to RMB 16.51 billion, while COVID-related revenue decreased by 83.9% to RMB 0.53 billion [2][3]. - The gross profit margin declined by 3.9 percentage points to 40.1% due to the ramp-up of new overseas production facilities. Other income fell significantly from RMB 7.7 billion in 2022 to RMB 0.4 billion in 2023 due to reduced foreign exchange gains and losses in fair value of equity investments [2][3]. - The company reported a total of 698 projects in 2023, an increase of 132 projects, with a notable rise in monoclonal antibody projects and ADC projects [2][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 was RMB 17,034 million, with a growth rate of 11.6%. The adjusted net profit was RMB 34.0 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 23.1% [2][4]. - The company’s net cash position at the end of 2023 was RMB 9.1 billion, with free cash flow reported at RMB 0.6 billion [2][3]. - The projected revenue for 2024 is RMB 17,895 million, with expected growth rates of 5.1% [4]. Capacity and Production - The company's production capacity reached 276,000 liters in 2023, with expectations to increase to 610,000 liters. Approximately 40% of the capacity is located overseas to mitigate geopolitical risks [3][4]. - The Irish facility is expected to achieve significant commercial production and break-even by 2024, with full capacity anticipated by 2025 [3][4]. Market Position and Risks - The company has a total order volume of USD 20.6 billion, with a slight decrease in unfulfilled service orders by 1% year-on-year [2][3]. - Concerns regarding the company's future CMO business due to potential policy uncertainties in the U.S. market are noted, particularly with the Senate's proposed Biosecurity Act [3][4].
坚持有品质发展,提升派息率
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-04-09 16:00
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 2.0 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 54% from the current price of 1.31 HKD [1][2][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a 10.9% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, with total revenue reaching 635 million HKD, a 13% increase from the previous year [1]. - The gross profit margin decreased to 52.5%, down 3.2 percentage points, primarily due to a decline in the gross margin of the leasing model, while the brand and management output model saw an increase [1]. - The company has maintained a strong cash position with cash on hand of 1.437 billion HKD, a 13% increase year-on-year, and achieved a net cash inflow from operations of 299 million HKD [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 was 635 million HKD, with a growth rate of 13% compared to 2022 [4][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 171 million HKD, reflecting a 10.9% increase year-on-year [4][9]. - The company achieved a net profit margin of 25.6% in 2023, with a return on equity (ROE) of 13% [4][9]. Operational Highlights - The company operates 27 retail projects with a total area of 1.65 million square meters and has 20 projects in preparation, indicating a solid pipeline for future growth [1]. - Same-store sales increased by 18% and customer traffic rose by 39% year-on-year, demonstrating a recovery in market consumption post-pandemic [1]. - The overall occupancy rate improved to 92.8%, with a collection rate of 99.8% [1]. Dividend and Shareholder Returns - The company increased its dividend payout ratio to 70%, with a dividend of 0.13 HKD per share, marking a 23.8% increase from the previous year [1]. - Since the beginning of 2023, the company has repurchased approximately 384,700 shares, totaling 542,200 HKD, as part of its commitment to returning value to shareholders [1].
毛利率触底反弹,盈利能力将持续改善

First Shanghai Securities· 2024-04-09 16:00
吉利汽车(175) 更新报告 买入 2024年4月10日 毛利率触底反弹,盈利能力将持续改善 毛利率反弹,核心净利润大幅增长:公司实现全年实现营业收入 邹瀚逸 1798.5 亿元,同比+21%;实现毛利 274.2 亿元,同比+31.2%, 毛利率触底反弹 1.2pct.至 15.3%。归母净利润 53.1 亿元,同比 852-33367861 +1%,剔除出 22 年公司收购韩国雷诺带来的一次性收益后,23 Robin.zou@firstshanghai.com.hk 年公司核心净利润同比大幅增长 51%。公司净现金水平达到 284 亿元,同比+46%。 陈晓霞 2023 年销量创历史新高,新能源车占比提升:2023 年公司销量 创历史新高的 168.7 万辆,同比+18%,分品牌来看:吉利品牌 852-25321956 130.96 万辆,同比+16%;领克 22.03 万辆,同比+22%;极氪 xx.chen@firstshanghai.com.hk 11.87 万辆,同比+65%。主要得益于三方面:1)在燃油车方 面,依托 CMA 平台优秀表现,中国“星”系列销量销量稳步提 主要数据 高。2) ...
盈利能力继续承压,未来手机业务回暖,车载光学和VRAR新曲线稳中有进
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-04-08 16:00
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 45.00, representing a potential upside of 16.73% from the current price of HKD 38.55 [3][4]. Core Insights - The company's profitability continues to be under pressure, primarily due to a decline in smartphone demand and a trend towards lower specifications in optical products, leading to a decrease in average selling price (ASP) and gross margins [2]. - Future expectations include a recovery in the smartphone business, growth in automotive optics, and advancements in VR/AR segments, indicating a stable outlook for these areas [2][3]. - The company anticipates a slight increase in smartphone lens ASP and a 5% growth in shipment volume as the smartphone market gradually recovers [2]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is reported at RMB 31.68 billion, a decrease of 4.6% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 14.5%, down approximately 5.4 percentage points from the previous year [2][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is RMB 1.10 billion, reflecting a significant decline of 54.3% compared to the previous year, aligning with prior profit warnings [2][8]. - The company projects revenues of RMB 34.03 billion, RMB 37.24 billion, and RMB 40.84 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, indicating a recovery trend with growth rates of 7.4%, 9.4%, and 9.7% [8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from RMB 1.08 in 2024 to RMB 1.74 in 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 7.7%, 30.5%, and 22.7% [8]. Segment Performance - The optical components business saw a slight revenue increase of 0.9% to RMB 9.56 billion, although the segment's gross margin fell from 33.4% to 28.4% [2]. - Shipments of smartphone lenses reached 1.17 billion units, a minor decline of 1.8%, with high-end market demand remaining sluggish [2]. - The automotive lens segment experienced a 15.1% increase in shipments, totaling 90.81 million units, although growth is expected to slow down in 2024 [2]. - The VR/AR business is projected to grow by 15% in 2024 as the company becomes a preferred supplier for key clients [2].
啤酒高端化稳步向前,白酒重塑成效显著

First Shanghai Securities· 2024-04-08 16:00
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 41.3, representing a potential upside of 21.8% from the current price of HKD 33.9 [2][3]. Core Insights - The company has shown steady performance in FY23 with a revenue of RMB 38.93 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10%. The EBIT recorded was RMB 6.96 billion, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 33% due to a low base effect [1][3]. - The beer business is focused on premiumization, with a revenue of RMB 36.87 billion in FY23, up 5% year-on-year. The average selling price increased by 4% to RMB 3,306 per thousand liters, driven by product mix upgrades [1][3]. - The white liquor business has successfully undergone a transformation, achieving a revenue of RMB 2.07 billion in FY23, with an EBIT of RMB 130 million. The company has effectively reduced inventory levels and improved pricing strategies [1][2]. Summary by Sections Beer Business - The beer segment's revenue reached RMB 36.87 billion, with a stable volume of 11.15 million kiloliters sold. The sales of premium and above products grew by 18.9%, accounting for 22.4% of total sales [1][2]. - The gross margin for the beer business improved to 40.2%, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, with EBIT and net profit contributions of RMB 7.03 billion and RMB 5.25 billion, respectively [1][3]. White Liquor Business - The white liquor segment generated RMB 2.07 billion in revenue, with an EBIT of RMB 130 million. After adjusting for intangible asset amortization from the acquisition of Guizhou Jinsha, the EBIT would be RMB 797 million, reflecting a robust EBIT margin of 38.6% [2][3]. - The company has successfully reduced inventory by approximately RMB 800 million, achieving a significant improvement in pricing for key products [1][2]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts net profits of RMB 60.7 billion, RMB 70.2 billion, and RMB 80.3 billion for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively, with a target price based on a 20x PE ratio for FY24 earnings [3][4].
业绩符合预期,铜金产量大幅提升,铜金价格持续走高,未来产量增长空间巨大


First Shanghai Securities· 2024-04-08 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 20.67 HKD, representing a potential upside of 23.2% from the current price of 16.78 HKD [2][4]. Core Insights - The company's performance in 2023 met expectations, with significant increases in copper and gold production, and rising prices for these metals, indicating substantial future growth potential [1]. - The company achieved total revenue of 293.4 billion RMB in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 8.54%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 21.12 billion RMB, up 5.38% year-on-year, marking historical highs for both metrics [1]. - The report highlights the expected production plans for 2024, projecting copper production at 1.11 million tons and gold production at 73.5 tons, among other minerals, indicating a sustained growth trajectory [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 was 293.4 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 9% compared to 2022 [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 21.12 billion RMB, reflecting a 5.4% increase from the previous year [5]. - The average selling price for copper concentrate was 49,406 RMB per ton, up 3.95% year-on-year, while the average selling price for gold bars was 433 RMB per gram, an increase of 12.28% [1][5]. - The company’s gross margin for 2023 was 15.81%, slightly improved from the previous year, while the mineral product gross margin was 49.09%, down approximately 5 percentage points [1]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued price increases for copper and gold due to tightening supply and recovering demand, which will support the company's profitability [1]. - The projected revenue for 2024 is 328.41 billion RMB, with net profit expected to reach 27.75 billion RMB, indicating a growth rate of 31.4% [5][6].