宏观经济研究 | 中国宏观经济点评 证券研究报告 报告日期 2025 年 03 月 07 日 分析师：段超 研究助理：谢智勇 xiezhiyong@xyzq.com.cn 相关研究 【兴证宏观】从投资于物到投资于人 — —2025 年政府工作报告解读-2025.03.05 【兴证宏观】PMI 缘何超预期？基数与 基数之外 ——2 月 PMI 数据点评- 2025.03.01 【兴证宏观】科技与内需的天平 —— 2025 年两会前瞻-2025.02.26 如何解读开年外需形势和内需格局？ ——2025 年 1-2 月进出口数据点评 投资要点： 美元计价下，中国 2025 年 1-2 月出口累计同比 2.3%，低于万得一致预期的 3.3%，前值 10.7%；进口 1-2 月累计同比-8.4%，低于万得一致预期的-2.9%，前值 1.0%；贸易顺差 1705.2 亿美元，较去年同期增长 458.8 亿美元。我们认为： 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1/9 ⚫ 如何评估开年出口表现：外需实际动能不弱。如果从同比读数来看，开年出口表现不及 市场预期。同比读数低受多重因素影响：一是去年同期基数偏高，2024 年开年出口增 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit (CDs) has significantly increased, with a total issuance quota of 30.43 trillion yuan for 2025, up by 5.59 trillion yuan from 2024 [4][5] - The increase in issuance is primarily driven by strong credit growth and a substantial outflow of non-bank deposits, leading to a heightened demand for proactive liability management [11][4] - In January 2025, new RMB loans reached 5.13 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations and reflecting a strong willingness from banks to increase lending [11][2] Summary by Sections Credit - In January 2025, the total new RMB loans amounted to 5.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 210 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating a robust lending environment [2][11] - The corporate lending sector showed strong performance, particularly in manufacturing and key areas related to national strategies [11][2] Deposits - Following the release of self-regulatory initiatives in November 2024, non-bank demand deposits saw a significant outflow, particularly affecting state-owned banks, which collectively lost 4.35 trillion yuan in non-bank deposits by January 2025 [2][13] - The downward adjustment of deposit rates and regulatory restrictions on "manual interest supplementation" have also constrained deposit absorption [13][2] Asset and Liability Management - The growth rate of loans (7.5%) has outpaced that of deposits (5.8%) as of January 2025, leading to a widening gap between the two [3][17] - The loan-to-deposit ratio for commercial banks stood at 80.3% at the end of 2024, indicating a relatively high level of leverage [17][3] - Banks are increasingly relying on interbank CDs as a tool for proactive liability management, with a notable increase in issuance quotas for major banks [3][4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [1] Core Insights - The overall policy for stabilizing growth aligns with expectations, with a 2025 economic growth target of around 5% and a proposed deficit ratio of approximately 4% [3][8] - The issuance of special government bonds totaling 1.3 trillion yuan is planned, including 500 billion yuan to support the capital replenishment of state-owned commercial banks [3][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand and improving investment efficiency as a top priority [3][8] - The capital replenishment scale for state-owned banks is better than expected, with the issuance of special government bonds having a limited impact on dividend dilution [3][9] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The CITIC Bank Index rose by 1.11% during the week from March 3 to March 7, 2025, while the CSI 300 Index increased by 1.39% [7] - Notable performers included Qilu Bank (+4.65%), China Merchants Bank (+3.61%), and Industrial Bank (+2.94%) [7] Industry and Company Dynamics - The People's Bank of China reported a 21.2% year-on-year increase in loans to technology-based small and medium-sized enterprises by the end of 2024 [14] - The government work report proposed implementing a moderately loose monetary policy and a more proactive fiscal policy, with a deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from the previous year [15][16] Recent Market Review - The report includes a review of the A-share and H-share banks' performance, with specific price changes and valuation metrics provided [21][23] Funding Price Review - The report details the recent operations in the open market, including reverse repos and MLF operations, highlighting a net withdrawal of 8.813 billion yuan on March 7, 2025 [29] Wealth Management Product Tracking - The report tracks the scale of the bank wealth management market, indicating ongoing trends in product yields and market dynamics [38] Interbank Certificate of Deposit Market Review - The report provides insights into the issuance rates of interbank certificates of deposit, showing slight fluctuations in rates across different maturities [40]

行业周报 | 基础化工 证券研究报告 | 行业评级 | 推荐（维持） | | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2025 年 3 月 9 日 | 相关研究 【兴证化工】化工行业周报———春耕需 求推动化肥价格悉数上行，继续关注化工 核心资产及新材料成长 （20250224-20250228）-2025.03.02 【兴证化工】化工行业周报———阿里巴 巴资本开支提速有望拉动氟化液需求，继 续关注化工核心资产及新材料成长 （20250217-20250221）-2025.02.23 【兴证化工】化工行业周报———国常会 研究提振消费及化解重点产业结构性矛 盾，继续关注化工核心资产及新材料成长 （20250210-20250214）-2025.02.16 分析师：吉金 投资要点： 中长期投资推荐： ⚫ 价值类：具备业绩安全边际的龙头白马价值凸显。 化工品价格、价差底部区域，龙头白马中长期性价比凸显。当前，化工品价格、价差处于 底部区域，龙头白马估值亦跌至底部水平。龙头公司周期底部业绩测算，该估值具有强安 全边际。叠加龙头白马产业链一体化、规模、成本优势明显，在建工程充足，中长期有望 在当前扩产周期中保持市 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the EU's anticipated increase in defense spending is expected to support the prices of minor metals and rare earth materials [2] - Gold prices are projected to continue rising, potentially reaching $3000 per ounce, following a brief correction [3] - Aluminum prices are strengthening due to a turning point in inventory reduction and warming demand [4] - Copper prices are experiencing fluctuations, with a focus on whether end-user demand can effectively drive prices upward [5] - Lithium carbonate prices have slightly decreased, but the demand remains high [6] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Performance Review - The non-ferrous metal sector increased by 7.08%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 5.52 percentage points [19] 2. Industrial Metal Fundamentals Tracking Aluminum - Inventory is at a turning point with demand recovering, pushing aluminum prices higher [4][30] - The average price of A00 aluminum ingots has increased [29] Copper - Copper prices are showing a strong trend with significant volatility [5][43] - The average price of electrolytic copper has risen [46] Zinc - Zinc prices have seen a slight increase [55] Tin - Tin prices have strengthened due to tightening supply [4] 3. Precious Metal Fundamentals Tracking Gold - Gold prices are supported by uncertainties around tariffs and a weakening dollar [3] 4. Energy Metals and Rare Earth Fundamentals Tracking Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate has decreased slightly, but production is expected to increase [6] Cobalt and Nickel - Cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo have been paused, which may lead to a rise in global cobalt prices [2] 5. Industry Weekly Dynamics - The report indicates a positive sentiment in the non-ferrous metals sector, driven by macroeconomic factors and policy expectations [2][4]

行业周报 | 汽车 证券研究报告 行业评级 推荐（维持） 报告日期 2025 年 03 月 09 日 相关研究 【兴证汽车】周动态：上汽与华为签署 深度合作协议，人形机器人巨头 Figure 重磅发布 Helix-2025.02.24 【兴证汽车】周动态：比亚迪宣布全系 车型将搭载高阶智驾，华为上汽或合作 敲定鸿蒙智行新品牌-2025.02.17 【兴证汽车】Deepseek 赋能，智能化平 权加速来临-2025.02.11 分析师：董晓彬 S0190520080001 dongxiaobin@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：王凯丽 S0190522070001 wangkaili@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：于鹏亮 表1、重点指数周表现（2025.03.01-2025.03.07） | 指数 | 周涨跌幅 | | 周成交额（亿元） 年初至今涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证综指 | 1.6% | 32248 | 5.0% | | 创业板指 | 1.6% | 24870 | 9.4% | | SW 汽车 | 3.1% | 4798 | 20.1% | | SW 乘用车 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a shift from strong beta to strong alpha in the computer industry, suggesting a focus on sectors with significant growth potential such as AI applications, cloud computing, and domestic innovation [4][6][7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) expectations, highlighting that the release of Manus has intensified market interest in AGI, which could lead to a significant evolution in technology companies and AI applications [7][8]. - The RISC-V open-source ecosystem is rapidly developing, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 40% for RISC-V based SoCs, expected to reach 20 billion units by 2024 and over 200 billion by 2031 [9][11]. - The report suggests focusing on companies within the RISC-V ecosystem and those involved in AI, cloud computing, and domestic innovation, such as Haiguang Information, Keda Information, and others [8][19]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The computer industry index rose by 6.46% from March 2 to March 8, outperforming the ChiNext index by 4.85 percentage points [21][22]. - The report notes that the current momentum in the computer industry is comparable to the upward trend observed from 2018 to 2020, but with stronger potential this time [4][6]. RISC-V Ecosystem - RISC-V architecture is rapidly evolving, characterized by its modularity and open-source nature, which allows for high scalability and low energy consumption [11][12]. - The domestic RISC-V ecosystem is thriving, with major companies like Alibaba and Huawei actively participating, and the RISC-V International Foundation has over 4000 members from 52 countries [9][14]. - Investment recommendations include companies like Haiguang Information, Cambrian, and Loongson Technology, which are positioned to benefit from the increasing penetration of domestic software and hardware [19][20]. Market Performance - The report highlights that the computer industry has shown strong performance, with significant weekly gains and a notable increase in trading volume [21][22]. - Specific stocks such as Xinkai Pu and Hengfeng Information have seen substantial weekly increases, indicating strong market interest [23]. Major News - The report covers significant developments in AI, including the launch of the QwQ-32B model by Alibaba, which demonstrates competitive performance with significantly fewer parameters compared to existing models [36]. - The report also notes the increasing deployment of AI technologies in the financial sector, with multiple institutions adopting the DeepSeek model for various applications [44].

行业深度报告 | 国防军工 证券研究报告 | 报告日期 | 2025 年 03 月 09 日 | | --- | --- | | 行业评级 | 推荐（维持） | 相关研究 【兴证军工】军费增速连续三年保持 7.2%，锚定建军百年目标攻坚——2025 年国防开支预算数据评析-2025.03.06 军事人工智能独角兽，国防科技产业变 革引领者 Auduril 深度研究——【兴证军 工】海外研究启示录 2025-2025.02.27 【兴证军工观察】继续战略看多航天精 导产业链，十四五末需求拐点已至- 2025.02.23 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1/40 ⚫ 21 世纪初至今，军事人工智能在技术突破催化下进入快速发展期。大数据、云计算、 GPU 的发展使得深度学习模型的规模和复杂性不断增加，促进了人工智能在军事领域 的全面应用，主要包括：实现作战指挥过程中辅助决策的专家系统、提升军事训练质量 和效益的辅助训练系统、提升无人作战平台的环境感知和自主控制、实现对作战目标的 快速识别、特征提取和计算视觉技术等。军事人工智能在国家层面的竞争拉开序幕，中 国、俄罗斯等国家相继颁布相关文件，立足顶层对人工智能在军事领域 ...

行业周报 | 电子 证券研究报告 | 行业评级 | 推荐（维持） | | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2025 年 03 月 09 日 | 相关研究 【兴证电子】周报：国补点燃中国智能 手机市场，看好端侧 AI 硬件创新浪潮和 国产算力需求-2025.03.02 【兴证电子】周报：阿里巴巴资本开支 超预期，看好端侧 AI 硬件创新浪潮和国 产算力需求-2025.02.23 分析师：姚康 S0190520080007 yaokang@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：仇文妍 S0190520050001 qiuwenyan@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：张元默 S0190523020002 zhangyuanmo@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：胡园园 S0190525010001 huyuanyuan1@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：王恬恬 S0190524040002 wangtiantian22@xyzq.com.cn 研究助理：刘珂瑞 liukerui@xyzq.com.cn 【兴证电子】半导体设备皇冠上的明 珠，自主可控大势所趋—光刻机行业深 度报告-2025.03.04 研究助理：刘 ...

行业点评报告 | 银行 证券研究报告 行业评级 推荐（维持） 报告日期 2025 年 03 月 07 日 【兴证银行】险资持续举牌银行，长期 配置价值凸显 ——银行业周报 （2025.02.24-2025.03.02）-2025.03.03 【兴证银行】LPR 持平，银行业季度经 营数据披露——银行业周报 （2025.02.17-2025.02.23）-2025.02.23 【兴证银行】低利率时期银行股表现全 球比较分析-2025.02.21 分析师：陈绍兴 S0190517070003 chenshaox@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：王尘 S0190520060001 wangchenyjy@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：曹欣童 S0190522060001 caoxintong@xyzq.com.cn 如何理解银行同业存单备案额度显著增长 投资要点： 相关研究 （1）信贷方面，2025 年 1 月全口径新增人民币贷款+5.13 万亿元，同比多增 2100 亿元，信贷增量超市场预期。银行主动靠前发力意愿较强，前期项目储备释放，信 贷投放在高基数下仍实现同比多增，结构上对公端表现强劲，预计制造业贷款、" ...