行业周报 | 交通运输 证券研究报告 行业评级 推荐（维持） 报告日期 2025 年 03 月 02 日 相关研究 【兴证交运】交通运输行业周报 （2025.02.17 - 02.22）——油轮运价继 续回升，快递揽投量稳步增长- 2025.02.23 【兴证交运】2025 年 1 月快递月报：继 续看好 2025 年行业需求，建议关注业绩 弹性标的-2025.02.20 【兴证交运】交通运输行业周报 （2025.02.09 - 02.15）——美国制裁持 续发力见效；春运旅客总量同比增长 7.2%-2025.02.16 分析师：张晓云 S0190514070002 zhangxiaoyun@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：王凯 S0190521090002 wangkai21@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：袁浩然 S0190523070003 yuanhaoran@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：陈尔冬 S0190524080005 chenerdong@xyzq.com.cn 交通运输行业周报（2025.02.23 – 03.01）—— 快递业务量同比增长显著， 航空、航运业量价维持平稳 投资要点： 根 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Add" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is a leader in FPC testing equipment, benefiting from industry recovery and technological innovation, which is expected to drive demand growth [3][4] - The company has a strong technical background and customer base, positioning it well to capitalize on the growth in the FPC market, which is projected to grow from $12.191 billion in 2023 to $15.117 billion by 2028 [3][4] - The acquisition of Axis Tec is expected to open new growth avenues in the silicon photonics equipment sector [3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has focused on the testing field for over a decade, becoming a leading provider of FPC testing equipment [8] - It has established relationships with eight of the top ten global FPC manufacturers, including major clients like Apple [8][4] 2. FPC Testing Equipment - The FPC market is experiencing a recovery driven by technological innovations in mobile devices and the automotive sector, which is expected to increase demand for FPC testing equipment [3][4] - The company has maintained a high gross margin of around 57% and has a robust R&D investment strategy, with R&D expenses consistently above 15% of revenue [3][4] 3. MEMS Testing Equipment - The MEMS testing equipment segment shows significant potential, with the global MEMS market expected to grow from $14.6 billion in 2023 to $20 billion by 2029 [3][4] - The company has developed advanced pressure sensor testing equipment and is expanding its product offerings in the MEMS sector [3][4] 4. Acquisition of Axis Tec - The acquisition of a 67% stake in Axis Tec for approximately 20.73 million yuan is aimed at entering the silicon photonics equipment market, which is expected to enhance the company's growth prospects [3][4] 5. Financial Projections and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 0.98 billion yuan in 2024, 1.50 billion yuan in 2025, and 1.82 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 44.3, 29.0, and 23.9 [3][4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a structural market shift towards active equity funds, particularly those focused on technology and growth sectors, which have shown significant excess returns [4][6][25] - The overall market experienced a decline in January 2025, with major indices such as the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 showing declines of -3.0%, -2.4%, and -1.9% respectively, while mixed equity funds saw a slight increase of 0.2% [4][6] - The bond market continued its upward trend, albeit with reduced gains compared to previous periods, with the CSI All Bond Index, CSI Financial Bond Index, and CSI Corporate Bond Index showing increases of +0.5%, +0.1%, and +0.2% respectively [4][6] Market Review - In January 2025, the equity market overall declined, with the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices showing respective declines of -3.0%, -2.4%, and -1.9% [6] - The mixed equity fund index, however, increased by 0.2%, indicating a potential shift in investor preference towards active management strategies [6] - The bond market continued to rise, with the CSI All Bond Index gaining +0.5%, while credit spreads for AAA-rated bonds narrowed [4][8] Product Application Situation - A total of 147 funds were applied for in January 2025, a decrease of 15 from the previous month, with significant reductions in bond fund applications [11] - The number of mixed funds applied for increased, focusing on high-growth sectors such as technology and advanced manufacturing [12][14] - The application for index funds saw a slight decrease, with 85 funds applied for, reflecting a more diversified product offering [13][14] Product Issuance Situation - In January 2025, a total of 833 billion units of new funds were issued, a year-on-year increase of 47.3% but a month-on-month decrease of 44.3% [19] - The issuance of stock and mixed funds accounted for 34.0% of the total new fund issuance, indicating a shift in investor focus towards equity products [19] - The issuance of bond funds saw a significant decline, with a total of 469.76 billion yuan issued, reflecting a shift in market sentiment [27] Existing Scale - As of the end of January 2025, the net asset value of public funds reached 31.93 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.7% but a month-on-month decrease of 2.7% [4][19] - The stock and mixed fund assets accounted for 24.5% of the total, indicating a slight increase in their proportion [4][19] Discussion on Active Equity Funds - The report discusses the potential for active equity funds to regain prominence, particularly those focused on high-growth sectors, which have shown resilience and significant returns [25] - Factors driving the growth of certain funds include concentrated investments in high-performing sectors and the recognition of fund managers' long-term performance [25] - The report notes that some active equity funds have achieved returns exceeding 40% year-to-date, drawing renewed interest from investors [25]

Company Rating - Investment Rating: "Buy" (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The company is a leading provider of cleanroom system integration engineering solutions, leveraging its Taiwanese background to expand in domestic and international markets. The company reported significant revenue and profit growth in 2024, with revenues of 44.18 billion yuan and a net profit of 4.39 billion yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 143.31% and 92.12% respectively [3][9][19]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in cleanroom engineering for high-tech industries such as IC semiconductors and optoelectronics, providing comprehensive services including planning, design, equipment configuration, and maintenance. It has a strong Taiwanese shareholder base, which provides technical support and brand advantages [7][9]. Financial Performance - The company has shown a remarkable recovery since 2020, with a significant increase in revenue and net profit since 2022. The projected revenues for 2024-2026 are 53.98 billion yuan, 60.88 billion yuan, and 66.90 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 6.26 billion yuan, 6.95 billion yuan, and 7.59 billion yuan [4][9][19]. Industry Outlook - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue its growth, driven by increasing domestic demand and the acceleration of chip localization. The total sales of semiconductors in China are projected to reach 181.92 billion USD in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.83% [23][25][27]. Competitive Advantages - The company possesses a strong technical edge with 90 valid patents and established long-term relationships with key clients in the semiconductor industry, enhancing its market position. The company has also improved its cash flow significantly, with a net operating cash flow of 1.343 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a 53.39% increase year-on-year [3][19][38]. Investment Value - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, with a cash dividend ratio of 74.37% in 2023, and a projected dividend yield of 2.99% as of February 24, 2025. This indicates a strong investment value as the company continues to grow its profits [3][44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The global AI medical market is rapidly growing, with an estimated market size of approximately 97.3 billion yuan in 2023, projected to exceed 150 billion yuan by 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 10.5% from 2022 to 2028 [3][4] - Key drivers of market growth include technological breakthroughs in AI applications across medical imaging, pathology analysis, and drug development, as well as the digital transformation of healthcare institutions [3][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy and capital support, noting a significant increase in financing activities within the AI medical sector, with 170 financing rounds completed in China in 2023, totaling 16.124 billion yuan, a substantial rise from previous years [11][3] Summary by Sections Market Growth and Drivers - The AI medical market is expected to experience exponential growth due to increasing healthcare demands driven by an aging population and the need for efficient resource allocation [4] - AI technology is maturing in various medical applications, transitioning from experimental phases to large-scale commercialization, including subscription models for AI-assisted diagnostics and sales of AI medical devices [6][3] Digital Transformation in Healthcare - The integration of digital tools such as hospital information systems (HIS) and electronic medical records (EMR) is enhancing data collection and sharing, leading to improved diagnostic accuracy and efficiency [9][3] - A case study from a top-tier hospital in Shenzhen demonstrated a 300% increase in work efficiency for radiologists and a 45% reduction in misdiagnosis rates after implementing an AI-assisted diagnostic system [9][3] Commercialization and Business Models - The report highlights a shift towards value creation in AI-assisted diagnostics, with standardized applications in medical imaging and pathology likely to see widespread adoption [14][3] - AI's role in drug development is also emphasized, with potential cost savings of up to 26 billion USD and a reduction in drug screening time by 40-50% [14][3] Internet Healthcare and E-commerce - The report notes that the online pharmacy market in China is projected to reach 75.8 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 14.4% [19][3] - AI technologies are enhancing operational efficiencies in e-pharmacy platforms, significantly reducing stockout rates from an industry average of 8% to 1.5% [23][3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like Alibaba Health, JD Health, and Ping An Good Doctor in Hong Kong, and Tempus AI, Doximity, and Teladoc in the US, as they are well-positioned to capitalize on the rapid growth of the AI medical sector [32][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the AI+Consumer sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [1]. Core Insights - The performance of large models has significantly improved while costs have decreased, driven by advancements in AI Agent technology, which is fostering the development of B-end applications and C-end hardware markets [4][20]. - The launch of DeepSeek-R1 marks a new phase in open-source inference models, achieving performance comparable to OpenAI's models at a fraction of the cost, thus lowering the barriers for enterprise deployment in vertical sectors like education [10][19]. - The integration of AI in various consumer sectors, particularly education, human resources, and e-commerce, is expected to enhance operational efficiency and create new business models [40][50]. Summary by Sections 1. DeepSeek-R1 Launch - DeepSeek-R1, released in January 2025, is the first open-source model matching OpenAI's performance, significantly enhancing inference capabilities with minimal labeled data [12][15]. - The model's cost efficiency is notable, with an output cost of $2.19 per million tokens, which is only about 3% of OpenAI's pricing [20][21]. - The rapid adoption of DeepSeek by various consumer companies indicates a shift towards an AI-enabled consumer landscape [4][20]. 2. AI Empowering the Education Sector - The education sector is ripe for AI integration due to its rich data resources and strong demand for personalized learning experiences [27][28]. - Companies like Duolingo are successfully leveraging AI to enhance user engagement and monetization, demonstrating the viability of AI-driven educational products [33][34]. - The report highlights various applications of AI in education, including automated assessments and personalized learning tools, which are gaining traction in both domestic and international markets [36][38]. 3. AI in Human Resources - AI technologies are transforming human resource management by automating processes and improving data security, particularly in recruitment and performance management [40][41]. - Leading companies are adopting AI tools to enhance recruitment efficiency and candidate matching, indicating a trend towards data-driven decision-making in HR [46][49]. - The report identifies key players in the HR sector that are integrating AI solutions to streamline operations and reduce costs [46][49]. 4. AI in E-commerce - AI applications in e-commerce focus on data-driven operations, enhancing user experience through personalized recommendations and optimizing supply chain management [50][51]. - The report notes significant growth in e-commerce sales attributed to AI, with companies like Baidu and Lenovo reporting substantial increases in transaction volumes driven by AI capabilities [50]. - The potential for AI to further enhance consumer engagement and operational efficiency in e-commerce is emphasized, despite existing challenges in complex scenario problem-solving [50]. 5. AI Hardware: AI Glasses - AI glasses are identified as a promising segment due to their combination of low-frequency hardware sales and high-frequency service consumption [54][56]. - The report anticipates significant growth in the AI glasses market, with projected sales reaching 1.52 million units in 2024, highlighting the low penetration rate and vast growth potential [56][57]. - Companies are exploring collaborations to enhance market acceptance and expand the functionality of AI glasses, indicating a trend towards innovation in this space [56][58].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the AIoT sector, highlighting a recovery in demand and inventory clearance as key drivers for growth [5]. Core Insights - The AIoT industry is entering a new growth phase, driven by dual catalysts of improved market conditions and advancements in edge AI technology [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of Wi-Fi technology as a preferred solution for AIoT applications, with a focus on higher speeds and interoperability as future trends [18][20]. - The Matter standard is identified as a significant factor in promoting interoperability across devices, which is expected to catalyze high growth in the AIoT market [29][30]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Dynamics - The AIoT market is projected to experience a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.6% from 2023 to 2033, with significant contributions from Wi-Fi technology [2][18]. - The demand for AIoT MCUs is expected to recover, with a forecasted growth of 34% in the second half of 2023 [5]. Section 2: Wi-Fi Technology - Wi-Fi technology is positioned as a core component of the AIoT ecosystem, with advancements in Wi-Fi 6 and 7 expected to enhance connectivity and performance [20][22]. - The report notes that Wi-Fi 7 is anticipated to achieve a market penetration of 20% by 2027, reflecting the growing demand for high-speed connectivity [22][28]. Section 3: Competitive Landscape - The report highlights leading companies in the Wi-Fi MCU space, such as Espressif, which has established a strong developer ecosystem and competitive advantage through self-developed IP [39][46]. - The competitive landscape is characterized by significant R&D investments, with companies aiming for long-term growth through innovation and product development [46][55]. Section 4: Future Outlook - The AIoT market is expected to see substantial growth driven by the integration of AI capabilities, with projections indicating a market size of $671 billion by 2030 [11][12]. - The report underscores the importance of developer ecosystems and core self-developed IP as critical factors for maintaining competitive advantage in the evolving AIoT landscape [46][55].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the recent suspension of cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is expected to significantly improve the global cobalt supply-demand balance, potentially leading to an upward adjustment in cobalt prices [3] - As of February 24, 2025, the global cobalt price has dropped to $9.95 per pound, a decrease of 75.20% from the 2022 peak, indicating that cobalt prices are currently at historical lows [3] - The DRC is the largest cobalt producer globally, accounting for approximately 76% of the total cobalt production, with an estimated output of 220,000 tons in 2024 [3] Summary by Sections Market Price - The domestic cobalt market price as of February 24, 2025, is 160,600 yuan per ton, down 72.08% from the 2022 peak, marking a five-year low [3] Supply and Demand Situation - In 2024, global cobalt production is projected to be around 290,000 tons, with the DRC contributing 220,000 tons [3] - The suspension of cobalt exports for four months is expected to impact the global cobalt supply by approximately 73,300 tons, alleviating the current oversupply situation if downstream demand remains stable [3] Event Analysis - The DRC's export suspension is anticipated to lead to a rebound in cobalt prices, benefiting companies with cobalt production capabilities in Indonesia and other regions [3] - The DRC government plans to reassess the export suspension after three months, which may lead to a gradual lifting of restrictions, indicating that long-term supply pressures may still exist [3] Investment Highlights - The report suggests that the recent export suspension will likely result in a short-term increase in global cobalt prices, with a focus on companies like Huayou Cobalt that have nickel production capacity in Indonesia [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [1] Core Views - The real estate beta factor is more positive, suggesting a proactive layout in retail building materials [6] - Attention is drawn to the cement industry's bottom improvement, with seasonal price increases stabilizing profits and indicating bottom signals [8] - There is a recommendation to focus on high-dividend stocks for their allocation value [9] - The strategy for 2025 indicates a profit bottom and an impending supply-demand inflection point [12] Market Performance - The report includes a section on market performance for the period from February 17 to February 21 [15] Price Changes - Cement prices have shown fluctuations, with specific data on price changes during the period from February 17 to February 21 [19] - The float glass and photovoltaic glass market also experienced price changes during the same period [24] Key Company Tracking and Industry News - Significant company announcements include share buybacks and stock increases by major players such as China Jushi and Wan Nian Qing [47][49] - Industry news highlights include the release of over 430 policies optimizing public funds in 2024 and the gradual improvement of market confidence in the real estate sector due to policy effects [51]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the 3D printing industry, particularly focusing on its applications in consumer electronics [1]. Core Insights - The 3D printing market is expected to experience significant growth, with a global market size exceeding $20 billion and a domestic market size surpassing 30 billion yuan, driven by applications in aerospace, automotive, and medical sectors, with immense potential in consumer electronics [3][16]. - The report highlights the acceleration of core component replacement and the gradual improvement of the industry chain, indicating a shift towards domestic alternatives in key components like lasers and galvanometers [4][34]. - The report anticipates the dawn of a new era for 3C applications, projecting that the market for 3D printing services and equipment in consumer electronics could exceed 100 billion yuan, fueled by the successful application of 3D printing in products like foldable phone hinges [4][60]. Summary by Sections What is 3D Printing? - 3D printing, also known as additive manufacturing, involves creating three-dimensional physical entities from digital models through layer-by-layer material deposition, suitable for complex structures and high material utilization [3][9]. Core Components and Industry Chain - The 3D printing industry chain includes upstream components like industrial software and raw materials, with midstream dominated by 3D printing equipment manufacturers, and downstream applications spanning various sectors [4][31]. - The global 3D printing market generated $15.24 billion in 2021, with manufacturing-related services accounting for approximately 59% of the total market value [31]. 3C Application Potential - The report emphasizes the potential for 3D printing in consumer electronics, with complex designs and weight reduction needs driving demand. Major brands like Honor and OPPO are already integrating 3D printing into their products [4][56]. - The anticipated market for 3D printing services and equipment in the 3C sector is projected to exceed 100 billion yuan, with significant contributions from companies involved in the production of mobile phone frames and other components [60][63]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on 3D equipment manufacturers such as Huazhu High-Tech and Platinum, as well as traditional CNC companies like Luxshare Precision and BYD Electronics that are actively expanding into 3D printing [4][67].