Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry in China [1][2]. Core Viewpoints - The real estate sector index outperformed both the CSI 300 index and the ChiNext index in the 48th week, with a relative return of 1.8% compared to the CSI 300 index [7][21]. - Nationally, 270 projects for affordable housing have been implemented across 65 cities to promote construction [24]. - Local policies have been adjusted in various cities, including increased loan limits and reduced down payment ratios for housing funds [24][28]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the 48th week, new home sales in 44 major cities reached 35,300 units, a 43.1% increase from the previous week, while second-hand home sales in 21 major cities rose to 22,000 units, up 5.0% [8][28]. - The inventory of 18 major cities increased to 888,000 units, with a sales-to-inventory ratio of 18.8 months, reflecting a 0.5-month increase from the previous week [8][38]. Policy Developments - Since September 24, policies have focused on inclusive measures and a "stop the decline and stabilize" approach, including lowering existing mortgage rates and providing subsidies to struggling households [9][64]. - Major cities have optimized demand-side policies, including adjustments to purchase qualifications and tax fees, which have lowered costs and boosted market confidence [9][64]. Company Announcements - Companies such as Xinhua Lian, *ST Jinke, and Rong'an Real Estate have released announcements regarding guarantees for financing [59][63].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 31.79 yuan, based on a 17x P/E ratio for 2025 [2][7] Core Views - The company reported a 6.78% YoY decline in revenue to 7.396 billion yuan and a 12.44% YoY drop in net profit to 1.202 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024 [1] - In Q3 2024, revenue fell 11.07% YoY to 2.666 billion yuan, while net profit decreased 18.49% YoY to 443 million yuan [1] - The decline in revenue is attributed to weak upstream real estate completions, with China's residential completion area down 23.9% YoY in the first three quarters of 2024 [1] - The company's leading position in the kitchen appliance market remains strong, with top market shares in range hoods and cooktops, and significant presence in dishwashers and built-in ovens [1] - The company's gross margin improved by 1.0 percentage points to 53.18% in Q3 2024, driven by enhanced supply chain efficiency [1] - The company's net profit margin declined by 1.5 percentage points to 16.61% in Q3 2024 due to increased sales expenses [1] Industry Outlook - The kitchen appliance industry is expected to recover, supported by nationwide appliance replacement policies [1] - Retail sales of key kitchen appliances showed strong growth in September 2024, with range hoods up 43% YoY and cooktops up 37% YoY [1] - During the Double 11 shopping festival, retail sales of kitchen appliances grew significantly, with range hoods up 30% YoY and dishwashers up 32% YoY [1] Financial Forecasts - The report revises down the company's net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 1.673 billion yuan, 1.762 billion yuan, and 1.875 billion yuan, respectively [2][7] - The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is projected at 1.77 yuan, 1.87 yuan, and 1.99 yuan, respectively [7] - Revenue growth is expected to rebound to 5.4% in 2025 and 5.7% in 2026, following a 3.4% decline in 2024 [5] - The company's gross margin is forecasted to improve gradually, reaching 52.6% by 2026 [5] Market Position - The company maintains a dominant market position in key kitchen appliance categories, with leading market shares in range hoods and cooktops [1] - The company's strong brand and product portfolio position it to benefit from the industry's recovery [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the e-commerce industry, recommending a "Buy" rating for Alibaba-W (09988), JD Group-SW (09618), Pinduoduo (PDD.O), and Kuaishou-W (01024) [3][41]. Core Insights - The overall GMV for the 2024 Double Eleven event reached 1,441.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26.6%, with significant contributions from home appliances and 3C products due to national subsidies [2][9]. - The extended promotional period led to a notable increase in GMV, with platforms like Taobao, JD, Pinduoduo, Douyin, and Kuaishou showing growth rates of 11%, 13%, 19%, 30%, and 20% respectively [2][30]. - The report highlights a shift in consumer behavior, with a significant increase in the number of users and transactions across platforms, driven by enhanced promotional efforts and subsidies [2][27][34]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - The 2024 Double Eleven event saw a GMV of 1,441.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 26.6%. The breakdown includes 1,109.3 billion yuan from general e-commerce and 332.5 billion yuan from live e-commerce, marking increases of 20.1% and 54.6% respectively [2][10]. - The national subsidy policy for replacing old appliances significantly boosted the sales of home appliances and 3C products, with GMV growth rates of 26.5% and 23.1% respectively [2][9]. Platform Analysis - Taobao's user base reached new heights, with a 50% increase in 88VIP orders and a record number of live streaming sessions [27][34]. - JD benefited from the national subsidy policy, with a 20% increase in shopping users and a substantial rise in sales for home appliances [2][36]. - Douyin and Kuaishou also reported strong growth, with Douyin's GMV from the general merchandise category increasing by 170% [27][40]. Promotional Strategies - Platforms increased their promotional investments, with Taobao's 88VIP investment rising by 50% year-on-year, and significant coupon distributions across platforms [2][22]. - The report notes that the extended promotional period and increased coupon offerings have led to higher consumer engagement and spending [2][15][22].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, with a target price of 217.14 HKD for 2025, based on a 22x PE ratio [4][5][115]. Core Insights - The company is a leading high-end gold jewelry brand in China, focusing on the promotion of "Ancient Method Gold" and has established a differentiated high-end positioning that serves as a foundation for its success. The company has experienced rapid growth, with a CAGR of 58.6% in revenue and 91.2% in net profit from 2021 to 2023 [1][29]. - The market for Ancient Method Gold jewelry is expected to grow significantly, with a projected CAGR of 21.8% from 2023 to 2028, outpacing traditional gold jewelry segments. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on this growth through its comprehensive competitive advantages across branding, product innovation, channel marketing, and strategic development [1][53]. Company Overview - Founded in 2009, the company is recognized as the first brand in China to promote the concept of "Ancient Method Gold" and is the leading brand in the field of traditional handcrafted gold jewelry [1][23]. - The founder has extensive experience in commercializing cultural products, and the management team is stable and experienced [1][41]. Market Potential - The gold jewelry market in China is projected to reach 811 billion RMB by 2028, with a CAGR of 9.4% from 2023 to 2028. The pure gold segment is expected to dominate, with a projected CAGR of 9.7% during the same period [46][47]. - The Ancient Method Gold jewelry market is anticipated to grow from 157.3 billion RMB in 2023 to 421.4 billion RMB by 2028, capturing an increasing market share [53][54]. Brand Positioning - The company fills a gap in the high-end gold jewelry market in China, recognized by high-net-worth individuals. It differentiates itself through a pricing model based on piece pricing rather than weight, which is common among traditional brands [2][62]. - The company has been recognized as one of the top ten jewelry brands favored by high-net-worth individuals in China, indicating strong brand recognition and market acceptance [62][68]. Distribution Channels - The company focuses on high-end shopping centers, achieving significant results with a coverage rate of 80% in major high-end shopping centers in China. The revenue share from five major shopping centers increased from 35.7% in 2021 to 39.1% in 2023 [2][80]. - The company plans to open 15 new stores over the next three years, indicating substantial growth potential in its distribution network [2][90]. Product Competitiveness - The company maintains a strong product development capability, with a focus on strict quality control to ensure high-end positioning. It has a unique advantage in the Ancient Method Gold market, being the only brand dedicated to this segment [3][95]. - The company has a robust pipeline of innovative products, having launched numerous new and updated products in recent years, which enhances its competitive edge [99][100]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts significant growth in earnings per share, projecting 6.93, 9.19, and 11.71 RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. Revenue is expected to grow substantially, driven by both offline and online sales channels [4][110][112].

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry chain in China [4] Core Views - NEV sales in China from January to September 2024 reached 8.32 million units, a 33% YoY increase, with power battery installations at 346.6GWh, up 36% YoY [2] - The lithium battery industry has entered a recovery phase since Q1 2024, with upstream lithium resources and downstream battery sectors showing significant recovery [2] - The industry is expected to maintain strong growth momentum in 2025, driven by demand from power, energy storage, and export sectors [2] Key Industry Developments - Qingtao Energy launched the second phase of its semi-solid-state battery production line, with a planned total investment of RMB 10 billion and an annual capacity of 15GWh [21] - CATL, in a consortium, invested over RMB 7 billion to develop lithium resources in Bolivia, aiming to produce 35,000 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate annually [22][23] - Shenzhen Capchem invested RMB 352 million in Jiangxi Shilei Fluorine Materials to secure a stable supply of key electrolyte raw materials [38][41] - Yinglian Co. received a mass production order for composite current collectors from a South Korean customer, with plans to supply 2 million square meters of composite aluminum foil and 1 million square meters of composite copper foil in 2025 [44][46] Lithium Battery Material Prices - Cobalt products: Electrolytic cobalt (RMB 178,000/ton, -0.28%), Cobalt tetroxide (RMB 116,000/ton, -0.22%), Cobalt sulfate (RMB 27,000/ton, -0.37%) [1] - Lithium products: Lithium carbonate (RMB 78,000/ton, -1.14%), Lithium hydroxide (RMB 68,000/ton, +0.48%) [1] - Nickel products: Electrolytic nickel (RMB 128,000/ton, +0.75%), Nickel sulfate (RMB 30,000/ton, -0.40%) [1] - Midstream materials: Ternary cathode (523 power type RMB 109,000/ton, 0.00%; 622 single crystal type RMB 122,000/ton, 0.00%; 811 single crystal type RMB 151,000/ton, 0.00%), Lithium iron phosphate (RMB 39,000/ton, 0.00%) [1] - Electrolyte: Lithium iron phosphate type (RMB 18,000/ton, +1.10%), Ternary type (RMB 18,000/ton, +1.13%), Lithium hexafluorophosphate (RMB 67,000/ton, 0.00%) [1] Investment Recommendations - Key companies to watch: CATL (300750, Buy), Shangtai Technology (001301, Not Rated), Kedali (002850, Not Rated), Eve Energy (300014, Not Rated), Shenzhen Capchem (300037, Not Rated) [18] - Charging infrastructure: Wanma (002276, Buy), Xinde New Materials (301349, Not Rated) [18] - Solid-state battery: Shanghai Xiba (603200, Not Rated), Fengyuan (002805, Not Rated), Youyan New Materials (600206, Not Rated) [18] - Hydrogen energy: Kewell (688551, Not Rated), Huaguang Energy (600475, Not Rated), Shihua Machinery (000852, Not Rated) [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the electric power equipment and new energy industry [4]. Core Insights - The U.S. anti-dumping tariffs have been finalized, signaling a bottoming out of the photovoltaic sector, which is now poised for recovery. The U.S. Department of Commerce announced preliminary affirmative rulings on anti-dumping investigations against crystalline photovoltaic cells from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam, with tariff rates ranging from 0% to 271.28% [1][26]. - Domestic wind turbine prices have hit a low point, with significant potential in export markets. BloombergNEF forecasts that global wind power installations will reach 124 GW in 2024, with China expected to account for 60% of new installations by 2030 [1][42]. - The new energy storage sector is gaining momentum, supported by recent policy clarifications from the National Energy Administration aimed at ensuring grid safety and high-quality development of new power systems [2][48]. Summary by Sections Photovoltaic Sector - The photovoltaic sector is expected to recover as market concerns over tariffs have been alleviated. The finalized anti-dumping tariffs have led to a more stable outlook for domestic manufacturers [1][26]. - Price trends in the photovoltaic supply chain show a decline in silicon wafer prices, while battery and component prices remain stable [32][37]. - Key companies to watch include Aiko Solar, Longi Green Energy, and JinkoSolar, among others, as they navigate the evolving market landscape [21][25]. Wind Power Sector - The wind power market is experiencing a price decline, but opportunities for growth in export markets are emerging. Chinese manufacturers are expanding their reach into the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America [1][42]. - The report highlights potential recovery in the wind power sector, with companies like Goldwind Technology and Mingyang Smart Energy positioned for growth [25][42]. Energy Storage Sector - The energy storage market is witnessing a steady increase in demand, with significant procurement activity in independent storage projects. The average procurement price for energy storage systems is around 0.75 CNY/Wh [2][49]. - The National Energy Administration's recent guidelines are expected to bolster the energy storage sector, enhancing its role in the new power system [2][48]. Electric Power Equipment Sector - The electric power equipment sector is projected to grow steadily, with increasing opportunities in overseas markets. The report emphasizes the importance of companies like HaiXing Electric and Samsung Medical in capitalizing on these opportunities [25][53]. - The release of the "National Unified Electric Power Market Development Planning Blue Book" marks a significant step towards a more integrated and efficient electric power market in China [2][53].

Geopolitical Developments - Recent international dynamics focus on two main issues: the evolving situations in Ukraine and the Middle East, and Trump's tariff threats to Mexico, Canada, and BRICS nations[2] - Ukrainian President Zelensky indicated that NATO protection is a condition for ending the "hot phase" of the war, reflecting a decreased expectation of battlefield victories[2] - In the Middle East, a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah shows signs of cooling, while the situation in Syria is escalating with extremist groups gaining ground[2] Trump's Tariff Policies - Trump announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada and a 10% tariff on Chinese goods starting on his first day in office[2] - He also threatened a 100% tariff on imports from BRICS nations unless they commit to not creating a new BRICS currency or supporting alternatives to the US dollar[2] - The potential use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) allows Trump to impose tariffs without congressional approval, which he may utilize for immediate tariff implementation[2] Economic Implications - Short-term aggressive tariff measures could increase supply-side pressures, while mid-term impacts on the US dollar's international status may arise if trade deficits are reduced[2] - Empirical studies suggest limited effects of tariffs on trade balances, indicating that Trump's tariff policies may not significantly conflict with the goal of maintaining the dollar's status[2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 136.40 CNY [3][6][10] Core Insights - In Q3 2024, the company's revenue reached 517 million CNY, marking a historical high with a 6% increase quarter-on-quarter and an 87% increase year-on-year. This marks five consecutive quarters of revenue growth. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was -142 million CNY, and the adjusted net profit was -155 million CNY. For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 1.37 billion CNY, a 36% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of -408 million CNY [2][3] - The automotive electronics segment continues to expand rapidly, with Q3 2024 revenue reaching 196 million CNY, a 26% increase quarter-on-quarter, accounting for 38% of total revenue. The company has seen significant market share growth in the electric vehicle power control chips and has begun large-scale shipments of various automotive chips. The company plans to launch several new products in the automotive electronics sector in the coming year, driven by strong demand in the Chinese market [2][3] - The company's overseas expansion is progressing well, with branches in Germany, Japan, and South Korea, and has passed supplier certifications from several tier 1 clients. A strategic partnership with Continental Group has been established to develop automotive-grade pressure sensor chips, enhancing safety and reliability features [2][3] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 1.91 billion CNY, 2.60 billion CNY, and 3.26 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively. The previous forecast for 2024 was 3.46 billion CNY, which has been revised down due to adjustments in revenue and gross margin expectations [3][10] - Key financial metrics include a projected gross margin of 36.7% for 2024, improving to 42.7% by 2026. The net profit margin is expected to recover from -17.2% in 2024 to 3.8% in 2026 [5][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for SAIC Motor with a target price of **20.14 CNY** [2][5] Core Views - SAIC Motor's overall sales in November showed a **19.1% month-on-month (MoM) increase**, reaching **478,800 units**, despite a **7.1% year-on-year (YoY) decline** [1] - Cumulative sales from January to November were **3.53 million units**, a **19.5% YoY decrease** [1] - SAIC Volkswagen's sales in November grew **10.4% YoY** and **16.7% MoM**, marking the first time since April that both YoY and MoM growth were achieved [1] - SAIC General Motors' sales in November increased **55.1% MoM**, although they declined **35.4% YoY** [1] - SAIC Motor's new energy vehicle (NEV) sales in November reached **174,900 units**, up **16.1% YoY** and **11.3% MoM**, with cumulative NEV sales for the year reaching **1.08 million units**, a **19.5% YoY increase** [1] - SAIC's IM Motors achieved sales of **10,007 units** in November, marking the second consecutive month of sales exceeding 10,000 units [1] - The company is expected to benefit from Shanghai's state-owned enterprise reforms, which could improve its operational capabilities and market competitiveness [1] Financial Forecasts - The report forecasts **EPS** for 2024, 2025, and 2026 at **0.89 CNY**, **1.06 CNY**, and **1.15 CNY**, respectively [2] - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be **659.8 billion CNY**, with a **9.1% YoY decline**, followed by an **8.3% increase** in 2025 and a **6.4% increase** in 2026 [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be **10.33 billion CNY** in 2024, **12.30 billion CNY** in 2025, and **13.27 billion CNY** in 2026 [4] - Gross margin is forecasted to improve from **10.2%** in 2024 to **10.9%** in 2026 [4] - ROE is expected to rise from **3.5%** in 2024 to **4.2%** in 2026 [4] Sales Performance - SAIC Motor's sales have shown continuous improvement since August, with September and October sales growing **21.6%** and **28.3% MoM**, respectively [1] - SAIC Volkswagen's cumulative sales from January to November were **1.02 million units**, a **5.1% YoY decline** [1] - SAIC General Motors' cumulative sales from January to November were **371,000 units**, a **58.6% YoY decline** [1] - SAIC Motor's overseas and export sales in November were **94,200 units**, a **20.0% YoY decline** and **9.6% MoM decrease** [1] Market and Industry Insights - The IM LS6 model, featuring advanced configurations such as the Lizard Digital Chassis and a quasi-900V platform, has shown strong competitiveness, with pre-orders exceeding **11,000 units** within 48 hours of launch [1] - The company is expected to accelerate reforms under the support of the Shanghai municipal government, focusing on organizational restructuring, business reshaping, and rebuilding competitive advantages [1]

金融工程 | 专题报告 ABCM：基于神经网络的 alpha 因子和 beta 因子协同挖掘模型 ——因子选股系列之一一〇 研究结论 ⚫ 基于基本面的 Barra 模型中的风险因子往往考虑的是超长周期的风险，且模型中基本 面信息占比相对量价信息更高，因此这种风险模型对于中高频策略可能力不从心。 为了克服这些问题，我们提出了一套基于神经网络和量价数据驱动的风险因子生成 模型，我们称之为 ABCM（Alpha-Beta Co-mining）模型。 样本外各风险因子的表现： 样本外"伴生"的 alpha 因子的表现： 风险因子用于组合优化的表现： ⚫ 相对于使用 Barra 风险模型，将 ABCM2 风险模型生成的风险因子直接用于组合优 化，新组合具有更高的信息比率，其中中证 500 增强组合由 2.79 提升至 3.30，中证 1000增强组合则由 3.83提升至 4.25。并且组合的年化超额以及超额最大回撤均有显 著改善。 风险提示 报告发布日期 2024 年 12 月 03 日 | 杨怡玲 | yangyiling@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S08 ...