看好（维持） 国家/地区 中国 行业 造纸轻工行业 报告发布日期 2024 年 12 月 08 日 李雪君 021-63325888*6069 lixuejun@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860517020001 香港证监会牌照：BSW124 谢雨辰 xieyuchen@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860524090001 本周成品纸价格均有提涨 ——造纸产业链数据每周速递（2024/12/07） 核心观点 ⚫ 本周轻工制造行业指数上涨 1.23%，跑输大盘 0.21pct；造纸子板块上涨 1.72%， 跑赢大盘 0.28pct。本周沪深 300 指数上涨 1.44%，轻工制造(申万)指数上涨 1.23%，跑输沪深 300 指数 0.21pct，在 28 个申万一级行业中位列第 24 位；二级行 业中，造纸子板块上涨 1.72%，跑赢大盘 0.28pct。本周轻工四大子板块按涨幅由大 到小分别为包装印刷、造纸、家具和文娱用品，其中包装印刷、造纸、家具板块分 别上涨 5.04%、1.72%、0.13%，文娱用品板块下跌 4.80%。 产业链数据跟踪 ⚫ 本周国废 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the paper and light industry in China [1][2]. Core Views - The light manufacturing industry index increased by 1.23%, underperforming the market by 0.21 percentage points, while the paper sub-sector rose by 1.72%, outperforming the market by 0.28 percentage points. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 1.44% [9][24]. - The report highlights that all finished paper prices have risen this week, indicating a positive trend in the market [9][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The light manufacturing industry index rose by 1.23%, while the paper sub-sector increased by 1.72%. The paper sub-sector ranked 24th among 28 first-level industries [9][24]. - The four major sub-sectors of light manufacturing, ranked by growth, are packaging and printing, paper, furniture, and cultural products, with respective increases of 5.04%, 1.72%, 0.13%, and a decline of 4.80% in cultural products [9][24]. 2. Industry Chain Data Tracking - The national waste price at the factory increased by 19 CNY/ton, while foreign waste prices remained stable. The price of broadleaf pulp fell by 10 USD/ton, and the spot price of pulp showed divergence [10][34]. - Finished paper prices saw an increase: double glue paper rose by 160 CNY/ton, coated paper by 74 CNY/ton, white card paper by 42 CNY/ton, high-grade corrugated paper by 50 CNY/ton, and low-grade corrugated paper by 64 CNY/ton [10][45]. - Profitability for finished paper improved, with double glue paper profitability increasing by 150-162 CNY/ton, coated paper by 73-86 CNY/ton, white card paper by 44-50 CNY/ton, and waste paper products by 30-41 CNY/ton [10][52]. 3. Production and Inventory - In October 2024, the production of mechanical paper and paperboard reached 13,994,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%. The inventory of finished products decreased by 2.3% month-on-month [10][18]. - The total inventory of wood pulp at two major ports in China was 1.51 million tons, a decrease of 1.9% month-on-month [10][42]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading companies in the integrated paper industry, such as Sun Paper Industry (002078, Buy), Huawang Technology (605377, Buy), Xianhe Co., Ltd. (603733, Buy), and Wuzhou Special Paper (605007, Hold). It also suggests focusing on the corrugated paper sector with companies like Jiulong Paper (02689, Buy) and Shanying International (600567, Hold) [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan with a target price of 215.76 HKD [2][12][11] Core Insights - Overall performance exceeded expectations with Q3 2024 revenue of 936 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 22.4%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 920 billion CNY [1] - Adjusted operating profit for Q3 2024 was 136 billion CNY, exceeding the expected 112 billion CNY, with an operating profit margin of 14.5% [1] - Adjusted net profit reached 128 billion CNY, above the expected 118 billion CNY, with a net profit margin of 13.7% [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue was 936 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 22.4% [1] - Adjusted operating profit was 136 billion CNY, with an operating profit margin of 14.5% [1] - Adjusted net profit was 128 billion CNY, with a net profit margin of 13.7% [1] Core Local Business - Revenue from core local business was 694 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 20.2% [1] - Adjusted operating profit for this segment was 146 billion CNY, exceeding expectations [1] - The operating profit margin improved by 3.5 percentage points year-on-year to 21.0% [1] New Business Developments - New business revenue reached 242 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 28.9% [1] - Operating loss narrowed to 10 billion CNY, with a loss rate improvement to 4.2% [1] - The report highlights ongoing efforts in overseas markets and community group buying as potential growth areas [1] Future Outlook - The report projects revenue growth for 2024 to reach 1,670 billion CNY, with adjusted net profit expected to be 39,041 million CNY [6][12] - The target price reflects a valuation of 13,130 billion HKD for the company [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 33.8 CNY [4][6]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2024 faced pressure, with revenue of 814 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 0.26% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 11.75%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 110 million CNY, down 22.47% year-on-year and 32.42% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The overall gross margin for Q3 2024 was 27.33%, a decrease of 3.72 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 13.54%, down 3.97 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company has increased its R&D expenditure by 27% year-on-year to 125 million CNY in the first three quarters of 2024, indicating a strategic focus on enhancing product performance and capabilities during the industry's downturn [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 2.493 billion CNY, a slight decline of 0.57% year-on-year, and a net profit of 404 million CNY, down 12.89% year-on-year [3]. - The company’s expense ratio for the first three quarters was 10.81%, an increase of 0.77 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising R&D costs [3]. Industry Context - The machine tool industry continues to face demand pressures, with a reported 6.6% year-on-year decline in revenue and a staggering 78.8% drop in total profits across the industry from January to September 2024 [3]. - Despite the overall industry challenges, the company is focusing on R&D to maintain its competitive edge and prepare for future recovery phases [3]. Earnings Forecast - The report adjusts the revenue forecast for 2024 downwards, predicting EPS of 1.06 CNY for 2024, 1.30 CNY for 2025, and 1.52 CNY for 2026, reflecting a cautious outlook amid current market conditions [4].

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [2] Core Views - The heart failure (HF) market has significant potential, with improving patient prognosis being the core focus [3] - HF is characterized by high morbidity and mortality rates, with approximately 12.1 million HF patients in China in 2017 [3] - HF is classified into three types based on left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF): HFrEF (35.6%), HFmrEF (20.6%), and HFpEF (43.8%) [3] - Chronic HF treatment has evolved from the "RASI+BB+MRA" golden triangle to the "RASI+BB+MRA+SGLT2i" quadruple therapy, with SGLT2i showing better prognosis improvement [3] - There is a lack of effective treatments for HFmrEF and HFpEF, with only SGLT2i receiving IA-level guideline recommendations [3] Unmet Needs and Competitive Landscape - Despite advancements, the 3-year all-cause mortality rate for HF patients in China remains high at 28.2%, indicating significant unmet needs [4] - Overseas companies dominate the chronic HF pipeline, with nearly 30 drugs in Phase II or later globally, including 5 domestic candidates [4] - Promising new drugs in development include Omecamtiv Mecarbil (OM), finerenone, tirzepatide, and semaglutide, with finerenone and tirzepatide showing potential as new treatment options [4] - Domestic candidates like S086 (sacubitril/valsartan) and recombinant human neuregulin are progressing rapidly, with S086 and neuregulin in Phase III trials [4] Investment Recommendations - Chronic HF, with its large patient base and long-term medication needs, is expected to see rapid market growth due to aging populations [5] - The market is driven by multi-drug combination therapies and the approval of new mechanism drugs [5] - Domestic companies like Salubris and Hengrui are recommended for attention due to their progress in HF drug development [5] Market Overview - HF is a chronic, progressive disease requiring long-term medication, with the Chinese HF drug market growing from 5.1 billion yuan in 2019 to 7.4 billion yuan in 2023 [26] - The global HF drug market is projected to grow from $3.7 billion in 2018 to $22.1 billion in 2028, with a CAGR of 19.5% [31] Treatment Evolution - HFrEF treatment has evolved from the "RASI+BB+MRA" golden triangle to the "RASI+BB+MRA+SGLT2i" quadruple therapy, with SGLT2i improving patient prognosis [32] - ACEIs were the first class of drugs proven to reduce mortality in HFrEF patients [33] - ARNIs, particularly sacubitril/valsartan, are recommended for HFrEF patients with NYHA class II/III symptoms [38] - SGLT2 inhibitors like dapagliflozin and empagliflozin have shown significant benefits in reducing HF hospitalization and cardiovascular death risks [50][55] Pipeline Highlights - Omecamtiv Mecarbil (OM) has shown mixed results in Phase III trials, with no significant reduction in cardiovascular mortality [71] - Finerenone has demonstrated positive results in HFmrEF and HFpEF patients, potentially becoming a new treatment option [72] - Semaglutide and tirzepatide have shown promise in reducing cardiovascular risks in obese and diabetic HFpEF patients [78][83] - Domestic candidates like S086 and recombinant human neuregulin are progressing well, with neuregulin showing potential in improving heart function [88][90]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 5.16 HKD based on a 15x PE valuation for FY25 [3][7]. Core Insights - The company reported strong performance in FY25H1, achieving revenue of 8.804 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 17.8%. Operating profit reached 1.47 billion HKD, up 19.6%, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.13 billion HKD, reflecting a 23% growth. A mid-term dividend of 0.06 HKD per share was proposed, marking a 20% increase [2][3]. - The brand's down jackets are identified as the core growth driver, with FY25H1 revenue from this category increasing by 22.7%. Notably, the main brand, Bosideng, despite closing 124 stores, still achieved rapid sales growth, indicating effective channel optimization and focus on top stores [2]. - The women's wear segment faced challenges, with a 21.5% decline in revenue due to a persistently weak market environment, leading to an operating loss of 50.42 million HKD. The company is reassessing its strategic focus on this non-core business [2][3]. - The company's OEM business saw a 13.4% revenue growth in FY25H1, maintaining a gross margin above 20% [2]. - Inventory turnover increased to 189 days, up 29 days year-on-year, primarily due to proactive inventory management in response to market conditions [2]. - The company continues to focus on brand-led development, with positive market feedback on new product categories such as sun protection clothing and lightweight down jackets. A collaboration with the Harbin government to create a brand IP is also noted [2]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The earnings forecast for FY25-27 has been adjusted, with expected earnings per share of 0.32, 0.37, and 0.43 HKD respectively. The previous estimates for FY25 and FY26 were 0.33 and 0.38 HKD [3][7]. - The company is projected to achieve revenue growth of 13.9% in FY25, with operating profit growth of 12.2% and net profit growth of 16.8% [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry in China [2]. Core Insights - The heart failure market presents significant potential, with a focus on improving patient prognosis. In 2017, there were approximately 12.1 million heart failure patients in China, categorized into HFrEF (35.6%), HFmrEF (20.6%), and HFpEF (43.8%) based on LVEF [3][19]. - Treatment for HFrEF has evolved from the "golden triangle" of RASI, BB, and MRA to the "new quadruple therapy" including SGLT2i, which is crucial for improving patient outcomes. The sGC agonist, Vericiguat, is undergoing clinical trials for expanded indications and may become a new first-line option [3][4]. - There is a significant unmet need in the treatment of HFmrEF and HFpEF, with very few drugs showing clear clinical benefits. Currently, only SGLT2i has received an IA level recommendation in guidelines, indicating a lack of available medications [4]. Summary by Sections Heart Failure Market: Large Potential and Core Focus on Prognosis Improvement - Heart failure is characterized by high incidence and mortality rates, with chronic heart failure treatment focusing on symptom relief and reducing mortality and hospitalization risks [3][25]. - The chronic heart failure drug market in China is projected to grow rapidly due to an aging population and the need for long-term medication [5][27]. Unmet Needs and Intense Competition in New Drug Development - Despite advancements in chronic heart failure treatment, the mortality rate remains high, with a 3-year all-cause mortality rate of 28.2% for discharged heart failure patients in China [4][61]. - The global pipeline for chronic heart failure includes nearly 30 candidates in clinical development, with a majority being from overseas companies. Domestic candidates like S086 and recombinant human Neulengrin are in Phase III trials and show promising progress [4][63]. Investment Recommendations and Targets - The chronic heart failure market is characterized by a large patient population requiring long-term medication, and the approval of new mechanism drugs will drive market expansion [5]. - Key companies to watch include Xinlitai and Heng Rui Medicine, as they are involved in the development of promising candidates in the chronic heart failure space [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the banking industry in China [4] Core Insights - Fiscal policy remains crucial, with accelerated debt resolution expected to significantly impact the banking sector's fundamentals in 2025. A large-scale debt resolution plan has been implemented, which is anticipated to enhance bank operations [2][20] - Loan growth is expected to stabilize with a slight decline, while social financing growth is projected to rebound. The estimated loan growth for 2025 is between 7.1% and 7.6% [2][28] - The impact on bank net interest margins (NIM) is manageable, with a projected decline of 10-12 basis points in 2025. The concentration of high-interest deposits maturing is expected to provide some relief [2][55] - Asset quality is anticipated to improve significantly, driven by policy support, particularly in real estate and local government investment projects [2][43] Summary by Sections 1. Fiscal Policy and Debt Resolution - The report emphasizes the importance of fiscal and monetary policies, predicting a continuation of a positive stance in 2025. The large-scale debt resolution plan, amounting to 12 trillion yuan, is expected to have a profound impact on bank operations [20][21] - The combination of existing debt resolution and increased fiscal deficits is likely to lead to a slight decline in loan growth, with social financing growth expected to recover [22][28] 2. Interest Margin and Repricing Effects - The report forecasts a decline in bank NIM by 10-12 basis points in 2025, with the potential for improvement due to the maturing of high-interest deposits [50][55] - The impact of debt resolution on NIM is estimated to be around 6-7 basis points, with the overall effect being manageable [37][40] 3. Non-Interest Income Contribution - Non-interest income is expected to remain stable, with a slight recovery in fee income anticipated due to a low base and a rebound in the stock market [3][16] 4. Asset Quality Outlook - The report indicates that asset quality is likely to remain stable, with a focus on consumer loans and credit card quality potentially improving. The overall asset quality is expected to benefit from the resolution of local government debts [2][43][46] 5. Capital and Refinancing Issues - The implementation of new capital regulations is expected to improve the capital adequacy ratios of banks, with some banks showing strong performance potential [2][24] - The report discusses the implications of capital injections from large banks, estimating a dilution effect on earnings per share (EPS) and return on equity (ROE) to be relatively limited [2][41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Views - The market remains cautious towards the petrochemical industry due to unclear oil price expectations following Trump's election. The shift in market sentiment has led to a slight decrease in risk appetite, favoring leading companies with strong fundamentals and low correlation to oil prices. The increasing instability in global situations has highlighted the importance of food security, making the demand in the agriculture and food supply chain more rigid. The report anticipates sustained prosperity and upward elasticity from supply-side optimization [20][6] Summary by Sections Oil and Chemical Product Information - As of November 29, Brent oil price decreased by 3.0% to $72.94 per barrel. Early in the week, oil prices were pressured by easing Middle East tensions and a stronger dollar, but rebounded mid-week on expectations that OPEC+ would continue to extend production cuts. As of November 22, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories stood at 428.4 million barrels, a weekly decrease of 1.8 million barrels [21][3] Price Changes - Among the 188 monitored chemical products, the top three price increases this week were Nicotinamide (up 9.9%), Formic Acid (up 5.4%), and Natural Rubber (up 3.8%). The top three price decreases were Ammonium Nitrate - International (down 7.3%), Diethanolamine (down 6.9%), and C9 Cracking (down 3.6%). Monthly, the top three price increases were Liquid Chlorine (up 39.6%), Natural Gas (up 27.1%), and Vitamin B1 (up 16.9%) [4][22] Price Spread Changes - This week, the top three products with the largest spread increases were Butyl Acrylate (up 495.2%), Lithium Hexafluorophosphate (up 49.5%), and Oil Head Propylene (up 25.7%). The largest decreases were seen in Hydrogen Peroxide (down 100.0%), Oil Head Ethylene Glycol (down 31.1%), and Polypropylene (down 17.9%). Monthly, the top three spread increases were MTO (up 111.8%), Lithium Hexafluorophosphate (up 63.5%), and Ethylene (up 44.4%) [5][27] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends Wanhua Chemical (600309, Buy) due to recent profit improvements in its core product MDI and upcoming production from petrochemical and new material projects. It also recommends Huamao Technology (603181, Buy) as a leading special polyether company that has re-entered a growth phase. Jinhe Industrial (002597, Buy) is recommended for its leading products Maltol and Sucralose, which are showing signs of marginal improvement. Yuntianhua (600096, Not Rated) is suggested for attention as a leading company in the domestic phosphate chemical industry with sustainable phosphate ore prosperity and potential for increased dividends [6][20]

看好（维持） 国家/地区 中国 行业 房地产行业 报告发布日期 2024 年 12 月 04 日 赵旭翔 zhaoxuxiang@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860521070001 一线城市均已取消非普宅认定 2024-11-27 政策效果延续性较好 2024-11-18 地方化债出台，未来关注增量增量政策 2024-11-11 城中村改造加快 2024-10-21 9.24 以来政策效果强于 5.17，但弱于 23 年初小阳春 核心观点 ⚫ 第 48 周房地产板块指数强于沪深 300 指数，强于创业板指。房地产板块较沪深 300 指数相对收益为 1.8%。沪深 300 指数报收 3916.58，周度涨幅为 1.3%；创业板指 数报收 2224.00，周度涨幅 2.2%；房地产指数（申万）报收 2391.95，周度涨幅为 3.1%。 ⚫ 全国政策方面。全国共落实 270 宗配售型保障房项目用地，涉及 65 个城市，以促进 保障房建设。地方政策方面。安徽六安、广东韶关等地调整住房公积金政策，包括 提高贷款额度、降低首付比例、优化使用政策等。广东韶关推出商业住房贷款转公 积金贷款政策，兰 ...