Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the textile and apparel industry [6] Core Views - The textile and apparel industry index (CITIC) rose by 0.51% last week, outperforming the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices, which fell by 2.6% and 3.03% respectively [3][10] - The textile manufacturing sector (CITIC) increased by 1.15%, while the branded apparel sector (CITIC) declined by 0.03% [3][10] - Key stocks such as Shenzhou International, Mercury Home Textile, and Huali Group achieved significant gains [3][10] Industry and Company Updates - Jinbo Biotech announced the completion of a phase of clinical trials for its EK1 aerosol for treating COVID-19, showing positive results [3][13] - Peacebird approved the liquidation of several subsidiaries and invested approximately 600 million yuan in a fashion R&D center project [3][12] - Huali Group announced the redemption of idle funds and continued cash management, with expected annualized returns of 0.2%-2.55% [14] Recommended Portfolio - This week's recommended portfolio includes Weixing Shares (002003, Buy), Proya (603605, Buy), Shenzhou International (02313, Buy), and Bosideng (03998, Buy) [3][19] - Last week's portfolio performance: Weixing Shares +2%, Proya -4%, Shenzhou International +9%, and Bosideng +4% [3][19] Investment Recommendations - The textile and apparel industry outperformed the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices, with active performance in e-commerce, home textiles, and export manufacturing sectors [4][20] - Export manufacturing leaders with global competitiveness, such as Weixing Shares (002003, Buy), Shenzhou International (02313, Buy), and Huali Group (300979, Buy), are favored for long-term growth [4][20] - In the domestic demand sector, sportswear and functional apparel leaders like Bosideng (03998, Buy) and Anta Sports (02020, Buy) are recommended due to their resilience and attractive valuations [4][20] - Cosmetics and medical beauty leaders, such as Proya (603605, Buy), Giant Biogene (02367, Buy), and Aimeike (300896, Buy), are seen as potential opportunities if market conditions improve [4][20] - Dividend stocks like Semir (002563, Buy) and Hla Group (600398, Buy) are considered stable holdings, while gold jewelry leaders face challenges due to high gold price volatility [4][20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the paper and light industry in China [1]. Core Viewpoints - The light manufacturing industry index decreased by 0.46% this week, outperforming the market by 2.14 percentage points; the paper sub-sector fell by 0.09%, outperforming the market by 2.51 percentage points [9][24]. - The prices of domestic waste paper and recycled boxboard have increased this week, indicating a positive trend in the industry [10][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The light manufacturing industry index fell by 0.46%, while the paper sub-sector decreased by 0.09%, ranking 7th among 28 primary industries [9][24]. - The four major sub-sectors of light manufacturing ranked by growth were entertainment products, paper, packaging and printing, and furniture, with entertainment products increasing by 3.12% [9][24]. 2. Industry Chain Data Tracking - Domestic waste paper prices increased by 40 CNY/ton this week, while foreign waste prices remained stable [10][35]. - The average price of domestic waste paper (excluding tax) is now 1535 CNY/ton, reflecting a 2.6% increase [10][35]. - The production of mechanical paper and paperboard from January to October 2024 increased by 10.6% year-on-year, with a total output of 12,994 million tons [10][11]. 3. Finished Paper - The average market price for double glue paper and copper plate paper remained stable, while white card paper increased by 3 CNY/ton [44]. - High-end boxboard prices remained stable, while low-end boxboard prices increased by 24 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.9% rise [44]. 4. Profitability Levels - The profitability of finished paper products has improved, with double glue paper profitability increasing by 5-26 CNY/ton this week [10][11]. - The profitability of waste paper products also saw a slight increase of 2-3 CNY/ton [10][11]. 5. Recommendations and Investment Targets - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the integrated pulp and paper industry, such as Sun Paper Industry (002078, Buy), Huawang Technology (605377, Buy), and Xianhe Co. (603733, Buy) [11]. - It also suggests paying attention to companies like Nine Dragons Paper (02689, Buy) and Shanying International (600567, Increase) due to the recovery in the boxboard and corrugated paper sector [11].

Group 1: Strategic Overview - The main international focus is on the transition to Trump's presidency in January 2025, with a consensus on Russian military advantages in the Ukraine conflict[3] - Ukrainian President Zelensky hopes to conclude negotiations by 2025 to end the conflict, which is increasingly seen as having limited chances of victory[3] - The Biden administration continues to signal support for prolonging the conflict, recently allowing Ukraine to use U.S. long-range missile systems against Russian targets[3] Group 2: Appointment Pathways - Trump's cabinet appointments may proceed through three potential pathways due to Republican control of both Senate chambers[3] - The first pathway involves the regular Senate confirmation process, where Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, but internal divisions could pose risks[3] - The second pathway is through "recess appointments," allowing Trump to unilaterally appoint officials during Senate recesses lasting over 10 days[3] - The third pathway allows Trump to appoint "acting officials" for up to 210 days without Senate approval, potentially extending indefinitely if nominations are pending[3] Group 3: Republican Leadership Dynamics - Recent Republican leadership elections indicate a shift, with Mitch McConnell's leadership being challenged for the first time in 20 years[16] - John Thune, John Cornyn, and Rick Scott were the main candidates, with Thune winning the leadership role, reflecting a preference for experienced leadership over MAGA alignment[20] - Despite Scott's early exit from the leadership race, the overall Republican stance remains supportive of Trump's authority within the party[21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the basic chemical industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - The market remains cautious towards the petrochemical industry due to unclear oil price expectations following Trump's election. The shift in market sentiment has led to a slight decrease in risk appetite, favoring leading companies with strong fundamentals and low correlation to oil prices. The instability in global situations has heightened the importance of food security, making the demand in the agriculture and food supply chain more rigid. The report anticipates sustained prosperity and upward elasticity from supply-side optimization [20]. Summary by Sections Oil and Chemical Product Information - As of November 15, Brent oil prices fell by 3.8% to $71.04 per barrel. Concerns over Trump's potential increase in oil production and EIA's slight upward revision of U.S. and global oil production forecasts have contributed to this decline. Additionally, OPEC's monthly report has lowered the forecast for oil demand growth, putting pressure on supply and demand dynamics [21]. - On November 8, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories stood at 429.7 million barrels, an increase of 2.1 million barrels week-on-week. Gasoline inventories decreased by 4.4 million barrels to 206.9 million barrels, while distillate inventories fell by 1.4 million barrels to 114.4 million barrels [3][21]. Price Changes - Among the 188 monitored chemical products, the top three price increases this week were Vitamin A (up 7.3%), dichloromethane (up 7.2%), and Vitamin B1 (up 7.0%). Conversely, the largest declines were seen in liquid chlorine (down 35.3%), butadiene (down 13.3%), and international urea (down 7.1%) [4][22]. - Monthly price changes showed natural gas leading with a 26.1% increase, followed by Vitamin E (up 18.0%) and BDO (up 14.0%). The largest monthly declines were in butadiene (down 24.5%), styrene butadiene rubber (down 14.0%), and Vitamin B2 (down 10.6%) [4][22]. Price Spread Changes - The top three price spread increases this week were for BDO (up 27.3%), ethylene (up 21.3%), and MTBE (up 16.2%). The largest declines were in butyl acrylate (down 352.1%), butadiene (down 25.3%), and glycol ether (down 18.7%) [5][26]. - Monthly data indicated that the largest price spread increase was for styrene (up 2186.3%), followed by BDO (up 139.8%) and MTO (up 71.3%). The largest monthly declines were in R410a (down 300.0%), hydrogen peroxide (down 250.0%), and butyl acrylate (down 120.9%) [5][27]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends Wanhua Chemical (600309, Buy) due to recent profit improvements in its core product MDI and upcoming production from petrochemical and new material projects. The acquisition of Covestro by ADNOC is expected to reshape the industry landscape [6]. - Royal Technology (603181, Buy) is highlighted as a leading specialty polyether company that has successfully navigated previous macroeconomic pressures and is now in a growth phase [6]. - Jinhe Industrial (002597, Buy) is noted for its leadership in maltol and sucralose, with signs of marginal improvement in its main products [6]. - Yuntianhua (600096, Not Rated) is recommended for attention as a leading player in the domestic phosphate chemical industry, with sustainable phosphate ore market conditions and potential for improved dividends [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 178.4 per share, based on a 2024 PE multiple of 11x for the retail business and a valuation of RMB 525 billion [2][9] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching RMB 260.39 billion (YoY +5.1%) and non-GAAP net profit of RMB 13.17 billion (YoY +23.9%) [1] - The retail segment achieved revenue of RMB 224.99 billion (YoY +6.1%) and operating profit of RMB 11.61 billion (YoY +5.5%), driven by strong growth in electronics and supermarket categories [1] - The logistics segment saw a significant improvement in profitability, with revenue of RMB 44.4 billion (YoY +6.6%) and operating profit of RMB 2.09 billion (YoY +624.3%) [1] Business Segment Analysis Retail Business - Revenue reached RMB 224.99 billion in Q3 2024, with electronics and home appliances benefiting from government subsidies and the Double 11 shopping festival [1] - The segment is expected to maintain strong growth in Q4, supported by expanded subsidy coverage and increased consumer awareness [1] Logistics Business - Achieved revenue of RMB 44.4 billion in Q3 2024, with operating profit surging 624.3% YoY to RMB 2.09 billion, driven by scale effects and supply chain optimization [1] Product Revenue Breakdown - Electronics revenue grew 2.7% YoY to RMB 122.56 billion, supported by the government's appliance replacement policy [1] - Daily necessities revenue increased 8.0% YoY to RMB 82.05 billion, with supermarket and apparel categories maintaining double-digit growth [1] Service Revenue Breakdown - Platform revenue grew 6.3% YoY to RMB 20.76 billion, driven by a 20%+ increase in third-party merchant users and double-digit growth in advertising revenue [1] - Logistics and other service revenue increased 6.5% YoY to RMB 35.01 billion [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected at RMB 1,138.5 billion, RMB 1,209.8 billion, and RMB 1,287.8 billion, respectively, with adjusted net profit of RMB 42.1 billion, RMB 47.2 billion, and RMB 50.7 billion [2][9] - Gross margin is expected to improve from 14.7% in 2023 to 15.9% in 2026, while net margin is forecasted to increase from 2.23% to 3.69% over the same period [3] Valuation - The company's retail business is valued at RMB 315.665 billion based on a PE multiple, with a total equity value of RMB 524.986 billion [13] - The target price of HKD 178.4 per share implies a 29.7% upside from the current price of HKD 137.5 [4][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the photovoltaic manufacturing industry [11][21]. Core Viewpoints - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has revised the "Photovoltaic Manufacturing Industry Normative Conditions" to promote high-quality development in the photovoltaic sector [11]. - The new standards aim to enhance supply-side management by setting energy consumption efficiency limits, such as a maximum of 46 kWh/kg for existing polysilicon projects and 40 kWh/kg for new projects [12]. - The minimum capital ratio for new photovoltaic manufacturing projects is set at 30%, encouraging rational development and technological innovation [12]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The photovoltaic industry is transitioning towards high-quality development with a focus on advanced, safe, energy-efficient, and cost-effective production technologies [11]. Supply-Side Standards - New standards specify that polysilicon battery and module efficiencies must meet minimum conversion rates of 21.7%, 23.7%, and 26% for different types of cells [12]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the photovoltaic sector, including Aiko Solar (爱旭股份), Longi Green Energy (隆基绿能), and JinkoSolar (晶科能源), among others [13]. - It highlights potential opportunities in the supply chain, particularly in materials like photovoltaic glass and silicon [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating for the automotive and parts industry [5] Core Insights - The automotive industry experienced overall pressure on profits in Q3, with revenue remaining stable but significant profit declines [1][15] - The performance of passenger vehicle and commercial vehicle companies showed significant divergence, with bus and parts companies improving their profitability [1][24] - The report anticipates a marginal improvement in automotive sales in Q4 due to the effects of vehicle replacement policies and recovering consumer confidence [3][18] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In the first three quarters, the automotive industry generated revenue of 7.36 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, while total profit was 335.98 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.9% [1][15] - Q3 revenue was 2.59 trillion yuan, down 1.1% year-on-year but up 2.9% quarter-on-quarter; total profit for Q3 was 98.28 billion yuan, down 23.4% year-on-year and 26.5% quarter-on-quarter [1][15] Profit Comparison - The profitability of the automotive sector showed a decline in Q3, with the return on equity (ROE) for the entire vehicle industry at 1.97%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [2][32] - The parts sector outperformed the vehicle sector, with parts companies achieving a net profit of 18.468 billion yuan in Q3, a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year [2][28] Inventory Management - The inventory turnover for passenger vehicles and parts improved, while truck companies faced increased turnover pressure [2][24] - By the end of Q3, the inventory of the vehicle industry accounted for 19.4% of current assets, a year-on-year increase of 0.3 percentage points [2][24] Cash Flow Analysis - The operating cash flow for the vehicle industry totaled 125.33 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a decrease of 26.5% year-on-year [2][28] - The cash flow performance of parts companies weakened overall, with a cumulative net cash flow of 70.12 billion yuan, down 8.8% year-on-year [2][28] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading vehicle and parts companies with strong risk resistance, as well as those involved in the T-chain, Huawei industry chain, autonomous driving, and Xiaomi industry chain [3][18] - Recommended companies include BYD, Jianghuai Automobile, Changan Automobile, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, SAIC Motor, and Yutong Bus among others [3][18]

国家/地区 中国 行业 电力设备及新能源行业 报告发布日期 2024 年 11 月 21 日 卢日鑫 021-63325888*6118 lurixin@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860515100003 顾高臣 021-63325888*6119 gugaochen@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860520080004 严东 yandong@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860523050001 10 月电新出口抵住回落，态势趋稳 看好（维持） 核心观点 ⚫ 10 月电新出口态势趋稳，静待后续需求复苏。 组件：10 月出口 153 亿元,环比+7%,同比-21%。1-10 月累计出口 1909 亿元,累计同 比-29%。 逆变器：10 月出口 47 亿元,环比-4%,同比+17%。1-10 月累计出口 497 亿元,累计同 比-19%。 变压器：10 月出口 44 亿元,环比-2%,同比+53%。1-10 月累计出口 376 亿元,同比 +30%。 电表：10 月出口 9.6 亿元,环比 0%,同比+20%。1-10 月累计出口 93 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the electric equipment and new energy industry [11]. Core Viewpoints - The export situation for new energy in October shows signs of stabilization, awaiting subsequent demand recovery [11]. - In October, the export of components reached 15.3 billion RMB, a month-on-month increase of 7% but a year-on-year decrease of 21%. Cumulative exports from January to October totaled 190.9 billion RMB, down 29% year-on-year [11]. - Inverters saw exports of 4.7 billion RMB in October, a month-on-month decrease of 4% but a year-on-year increase of 17%. Cumulative exports for the year reached 49.7 billion RMB, down 19% year-on-year [11]. - Transformers had exports of 4.4 billion RMB in October, a month-on-month decrease of 2% but a year-on-year increase of 53%. Cumulative exports from January to October reached 37.6 billion RMB, up 30% year-on-year [11]. - Electric meters exported 0.96 billion RMB in October, remaining flat month-on-month and increasing 20% year-on-year. Cumulative exports for the year reached 9.3 billion RMB, up 11% year-on-year [11]. - Short-term disturbances have been removed, and data shows a warming trend due to improved transportation conditions and low base effects from the previous year [11]. - The industry maintains a solid export chain advantage, with expectations for a return to growth in demand from Europe and the U.S., as well as energy reform needs in developing countries [11]. Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests focusing on the following companies: - Deye Technology (605117, Buy) - Sungrow Power (300274, Not Rated) - Shangen Electric (300827, Not Rated) - Hemai Technology (688032, Buy) - Samsung Medical (601567, Not Rated) - Haixing Electric (603556, Not Rated) - Jinpan Technology (688676, Buy) - Chint Electric (601877, Not Rated) [12].

银行行业 行业研究 | 深度报告 高息定存将迎集中到期，如何看待当前存 款的几个关键问题 核心观点 ⚫ 存款增速经历"大起大落"，24Q3 以来增速修复的持续性尚待观察。21Q3-23Q1 超额储蓄现象推动存款增速持续攀升，此后存款增速趋势性回落，受贷款派生存款 放缓、监管政策以及居民资产配置行为变化的共同影响。今年 7-9 月存款增速有所 修复，如何看待其持续性？我们认为可以观察到积极因素，但尚有一定不确定性： 1）7 月以来新增存款结构偏弱，非银存款持续大幅同比高增有难度，一是股市再现 极致行情可能较难，二是银行同业负债成本若有所压降，也可能冲击非银存款。2） 企业存款的走势更多依赖于贷款，以及财政存款的转化。年内看，财政存款的转化 确定性更强。 3）居民存款的走势存在不确定性，需关注资本市场的变化，以及 2022 年左右新增的三年定存在 2025 年到期重定价过程中存款的稳定性。 ⚫ 存款利率受自律机制约束，并已建立市场化调整机制。2015 年 10 月起，央行放开 对人民币存款利率上限的行政管制，由自律机制形成自律约定上限，并逐步指导建 立了存款利率市场化调整机制。现行监管体制下，存款利率实际上分为存 ...