国家/地区 中国 行业 电力设备及新能源行业 报告发布日期 2024 年 11 月 21 日 卢日鑫 021-63325888*6118 lurixin@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860515100003 顾高臣 021-63325888*6119 gugaochen@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860520080004 严东 yandong@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860523050001 10 月电新出口抵住回落，态势趋稳 看好（维持） 核心观点 ⚫ 10 月电新出口态势趋稳，静待后续需求复苏。 组件：10 月出口 153 亿元,环比+7%,同比-21%。1-10 月累计出口 1909 亿元,累计同 比-29%。 逆变器：10 月出口 47 亿元,环比-4%,同比+17%。1-10 月累计出口 497 亿元,累计同 比-19%。 变压器：10 月出口 44 亿元,环比-2%,同比+53%。1-10 月累计出口 376 亿元,同比 +30%。 电表：10 月出口 9.6 亿元,环比 0%,同比+20%。1-10 月累计出口 93 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the electric equipment and new energy industry [11]. Core Viewpoints - The export situation for new energy in October shows signs of stabilization, awaiting subsequent demand recovery [11]. - In October, the export of components reached 15.3 billion RMB, a month-on-month increase of 7% but a year-on-year decrease of 21%. Cumulative exports from January to October totaled 190.9 billion RMB, down 29% year-on-year [11]. - Inverters saw exports of 4.7 billion RMB in October, a month-on-month decrease of 4% but a year-on-year increase of 17%. Cumulative exports for the year reached 49.7 billion RMB, down 19% year-on-year [11]. - Transformers had exports of 4.4 billion RMB in October, a month-on-month decrease of 2% but a year-on-year increase of 53%. Cumulative exports from January to October reached 37.6 billion RMB, up 30% year-on-year [11]. - Electric meters exported 0.96 billion RMB in October, remaining flat month-on-month and increasing 20% year-on-year. Cumulative exports for the year reached 9.3 billion RMB, up 11% year-on-year [11]. - Short-term disturbances have been removed, and data shows a warming trend due to improved transportation conditions and low base effects from the previous year [11]. - The industry maintains a solid export chain advantage, with expectations for a return to growth in demand from Europe and the U.S., as well as energy reform needs in developing countries [11]. Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests focusing on the following companies: - Deye Technology (605117, Buy) - Sungrow Power (300274, Not Rated) - Shangen Electric (300827, Not Rated) - Hemai Technology (688032, Buy) - Samsung Medical (601567, Not Rated) - Haixing Electric (603556, Not Rated) - Jinpan Technology (688676, Buy) - Chint Electric (601877, Not Rated) [12].

银行行业 行业研究 | 深度报告 高息定存将迎集中到期，如何看待当前存 款的几个关键问题 核心观点 ⚫ 存款增速经历"大起大落"，24Q3 以来增速修复的持续性尚待观察。21Q3-23Q1 超额储蓄现象推动存款增速持续攀升，此后存款增速趋势性回落，受贷款派生存款 放缓、监管政策以及居民资产配置行为变化的共同影响。今年 7-9 月存款增速有所 修复，如何看待其持续性？我们认为可以观察到积极因素，但尚有一定不确定性： 1）7 月以来新增存款结构偏弱，非银存款持续大幅同比高增有难度，一是股市再现 极致行情可能较难，二是银行同业负债成本若有所压降，也可能冲击非银存款。2） 企业存款的走势更多依赖于贷款，以及财政存款的转化。年内看，财政存款的转化 确定性更强。 3）居民存款的走势存在不确定性，需关注资本市场的变化，以及 2022 年左右新增的三年定存在 2025 年到期重定价过程中存款的稳定性。 ⚫ 存款利率受自律机制约束，并已建立市场化调整机制。2015 年 10 月起，央行放开 对人民币存款利率上限的行政管制，由自律机制形成自律约定上限，并逐步指导建 立了存款利率市场化调整机制。现行监管体制下，存款利率实际上分为存 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][19]. Core Insights - The company's total revenue for Q3 2024 reached 7.31 billion CNY, representing a year-over-year increase of 26% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 19%. The growth was primarily driven by advertising and gaming businesses [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 34.9%, an increase of 9.9 percentage points year-over-year and 5.6 percentage points quarter-over-quarter. Non-GAAP operating profit turned positive for the first time at 272 million CNY, with expectations of reaching 400 million CNY in Q4 2024 [1][2]. - The advertising revenue for Q3 2024 was 2.09 billion CNY, up 28% year-over-year and 3% quarter-over-quarter, contributing to an increase in overall gross profit [1][2]. - The gaming revenue for Q3 2024 was 1.82 billion CNY, showing a significant year-over-year increase of 84% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 81%, mainly due to the performance of the new game "Three Kingdoms: Strategize the World" [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2024 total revenue: 7.31 billion CNY (yoy +26%, qoq +19%) [1]. - Q3 2024 gross margin: 34.9% (yoy +9.9pp, qoq +5.6pp) [1]. - Q3 2024 Non-GAAP operating profit: 272 million CNY, first positive result [1]. - Q4 2024 revenue forecast: 7.66 billion CNY (yoy +20.67%, qoq +4.86%) [7]. Revenue Breakdown - Advertising revenue in Q3 2024: 2.09 billion CNY (yoy +28%, qoq +3%) [1]. - Live streaming and VAS revenue in Q3 2024: 2.82 billion CNY (yoy +9%, qoq +10%) [1]. - Gaming revenue in Q3 2024: 1.82 billion CNY (yoy +84%, qoq +81%) [1]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026: 26.76 billion CNY (2024), 31.47 billion CNY (2025), 34.11 billion CNY (2026) [2][11]. - Target price set at 166.43 HKD (approximately 153.73 CNY) based on a 2.4x adjusted PS ratio for 2024 [2].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The terminal sales performance is impressive, with demand growth maintaining a positive trend. In the first nine months of 2024, China's new energy vehicle sales reached 8.32 million units, a year-on-year increase of 33%, and the installed capacity of power batteries was 346.6 GWh, up 36% year-on-year. The terminal demand continues to grow, and the penetration rate is consistently breaking through [11][23] - The third-quarter report summary indicates a stable and slightly upward trend in overall profitability. Both upstream lithium resources and downstream batteries have shown significant recovery. However, midstream materials such as ternary and lithium iron phosphate cathodes and electrolytes are still affected by the impairment of lithium carbonate, with ternary materials facing a larger negative impact [11][23] - The upward trend in profitability remains unchanged, highlighting the configuration value. Since early 2022, the lithium battery sector has experienced continuous performance declines, but since the first quarter of 2024, it has entered a recovery phase. Observations indicate that the upstream resource prices have bottomed out, and industry consolidation and improvements in processing fees and product structure are expected to support a sustained improvement in profitability [11][24] Summary by Sections Industry News - EHang has partnered with Xinjie Energy to achieve the world's first eVTOL solid-state battery flight test, marking a significant technological breakthrough for urban air mobility [27] - Nord shares have developed a 3-micron ultra-thin lithium battery copper foil, which enhances energy density while reducing the amount of copper foil required per GWh [29] Price Tracking of Lithium Battery Products - Cobalt products: Electrolytic cobalt (178,500 CNY/ton, +0.56%); Cobalt tetroxide (116,000 CNY/ton, -0.09%); Cobalt sulfate (27,000 CNY/ton, +0.18%) - Lithium products: Lithium carbonate (79,000 CNY/ton, +4.77%); Lithium hydroxide (67,000 CNY/ton, +0.45%) - Nickel products: Electrolytic nickel (126,000 CNY/ton, -3.79%); Nickel sulfate (32,000 CNY/ton, 0.00%) [10][51]

Market Performance - Global stock markets experienced a broad decline, with technology stocks showing weakness, while Bitcoin continued to surge, increasing by 19.26% week-to-date (WTD) and 117.16% year-to-date (YTD) [7] - The U.S. 10-month Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, up from 2.4% the previous month, while core CPI remained steady at 3.3% [13] - U.S. retail sales rose by 0.4% month-on-month in October, exceeding market expectations, driven primarily by automotive and electronics sales [19] Economic Dynamics - The market is adjusting its expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, leading to a rebound in U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar [3] - The tightening trade is currently resonating across expectations, realities, and transactions, with growth and inflation expectations being revised upward [20] - The upcoming December FOMC meeting will likely see the Fed update its economic forecasts based on recent data and the implications of Trump's new policies [3] International Factors - Weak fundamentals in Europe and Japan, along with political instability in Germany, have contributed to the strengthening of the dollar and intensified tightening trades [3] - The European Central Bank faces increased pressure for rate cuts, with economic risks diverging from the U.S. [3] Future Outlook - The end of the Trump trade's expectation phase may shift market focus back to fundamental factors, with key indicators such as employment and inflation being closely monitored [20] - The potential for stagflation-like macro shocks in the early stages of Trump's new policies could significantly impact market and policy directions in 2025 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the electric vehicle industry in China [1]. Core Viewpoints - The demand for electric vehicles (EVs) remains strong, with sales in China reaching 8.32 million units from January to September 2024, a year-on-year increase of 33%. The installed capacity of power batteries reached 346.6 GWh, up 36% year-on-year [11][23]. - The overall profitability trend is stabilizing and slightly improving, with upstream lithium resources and downstream batteries showing significant recovery. However, midstream materials are still affected by the depreciation of lithium carbonate [11][24]. - The lithium battery industry is entering a phase of sustained profitability improvement, supported by resource price stabilization, industry consolidation, and product structure enhancement. Many companies in the supply chain are expected to have a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio below 20 times for 2025, indicating investment value [11][24]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights significant technological advancements, including the global first eVTOL solid-state battery flight test conducted by EHang in collaboration with Xinjie Energy, which achieved a flight duration of 48 minutes and 10 seconds, improving energy density by 60% to 90% compared to traditional batteries [10][27]. - Nord Holdings has developed a 3-micron ultra-thin lithium battery copper foil, which enhances energy density while reducing the amount of copper foil required per GWh [10][29]. Market Trends - The report notes that the penetration rate of EVs continues to rise, with strong growth momentum expected in lithium demand across various segments, including power, storage, and exports [11][23]. - The third-quarter reports indicate a slight upward trend in profitability, with upstream lithium resources and downstream batteries recovering significantly, while midstream materials face challenges due to lithium carbonate depreciation [11][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as CATL (300750, Buy), Shengtai Technology (001301, Not Rated), and others in the charging infrastructure and solid-state battery sectors [11][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 15.09 HKD based on a PE valuation of 18.92 times for comparable companies [2][5]. Core Insights - The company's revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 22% and 41% respectively in the first half of the fiscal year, with growth of 24% and 44% in the second fiscal quarter, reaching 178.5 million and 359 million USD [1]. - The IDG smart device business group saw a revenue growth of 15% in the first half of the fiscal year, driven by strong performance in personal computers and smartphones, with PC revenue up 12% and smartphone revenue up 43% [1]. - The ISG infrastructure solutions business group achieved a record revenue growth of 65% to 6.5 billion USD in the first half of the fiscal year, with significant contributions from storage, software, and services [1]. - The SSG solutions services business group reported a 12% increase in revenue to 4 billion USD, benefiting from strong demand for "as-a-service" and AI-driven solutions, maintaining a high operating profit margin of 21% [1]. Financial Summary - The company's projected earnings per share for the fiscal years 2024/25 to 2026/27 are 0.10, 0.12, and 0.14 USD respectively, with adjustments made to revenue and pre-tax profit margin forecasts [2][11]. - The company's revenue for FY24E is estimated at 65,259 million USD, with a projected growth rate of 15% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to reach 1,271 million USD in FY24E, reflecting a growth rate of 26% [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 11.28 yuan [2][9] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 6.182 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.84%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 98 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 73.02% [1] - In Q3 2024, the company's revenue was 1.795 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.12%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was -77 million yuan, turning negative compared to the same period last year [1] - Domestic demand remains weak, with the overall retail sales of small kitchen appliances in China declining by 4.6% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024 and 2.7% in Q3 [1] - Export business is under pressure due to the end of overseas restocking and a high base from the previous year [1] - The company adjusted its annual related-party transaction amount to 231 million USD, a decrease of 20.5% compared to the previous year, and added R&D service-related transactions worth 24 million yuan [1] - The gross profit margin in Q3 2024 was 21.85%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6 percentage points, while the operating expense ratio increased by 10.7 percentage points year-on-year to 27.89% [1] - The company plans to sell 68.4517% of its equity in Shenzhen Beetle Intelligent Co Ltd for 169 million yuan, expecting an investment income of 35 million yuan [1] Financial Forecasts - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 164 million yuan, 361 million yuan, and 387 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.21 yuan, 0.47 yuan, and 0.50 yuan [2][9] - Revenue is forecasted to be 8.74 billion yuan, 9.254 billion yuan, and 9.81 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -9.1%, 5.9%, and 6.0% [7] - The gross profit margin is expected to be 24.8%, 25.6%, and 25.5% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [7] - The net profit margin is projected to be 1.9%, 3.9%, and 3.9% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [7] Industry and Market Context - The small kitchen appliance market in China is experiencing low demand, with retail sales declining by 4.6% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024 [1] - The company faces challenges in both domestic and export markets, with domestic demand remaining weak and export growth slowing due to high base effects [1] - The industry is characterized by intensified competition and rising raw material costs, which have impacted the company's profitability [1] Valuation and Peer Comparison - The company is valued at 24 times the 2025 P/E ratio, based on comparable companies, with a target price of 11.28 yuan [2][9] - Comparable companies in the industry include Supor, Bear Electric, and Roborock, with adjusted average P/E ratios of 24.49 for 2025 [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 14.37 CNY [4][8]. Core Views - The company's revenue continued to decline in the third quarter, with a year-on-year decrease of 29.09%, resulting in a net profit attributable to the parent company of -0.08 million CNY [2][3]. - The company is undergoing channel and organizational adjustments, compounded by a low overall industry sentiment and intensified competition, leading to a sustained downward trend in revenue [2][3]. - The introduction of government subsidies is expected to gradually improve the home furnishing market, potentially boosting the company's revenue [2][3]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.732 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 22.22%, with a net profit of -114 million CNY [2][3]. - The third quarter revenue was 1.022 billion CNY, down 29.09% year-on-year, with a net profit of -8 million CNY [2][3]. Profitability Analysis - The gross margin for the third quarter of 2024 was 34.18%, a decrease of 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a reduction in the proportion of direct sales revenue following channel adjustments [2][3]. - The operating expense ratio increased to 34.82%, up 6.4 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a significant decline in revenue [2][3]. - The net profit margin for the third quarter was -0.81%, down 5.5 percentage points year-on-year, indicating pressure on profitability [2][3]. Future Outlook - The recent implementation of "old-for-new" policies for home products is expected to enhance consumer traffic and conversion rates, positively impacting the company's revenue growth [2][3]. - The company is also enhancing its subsidy policies and expanding online payment channels to increase consumer reach and improve market conditions [2][3]. Financial Forecast - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are -68 million CNY, 51 million CNY, and 58 million CNY respectively, with adjustments made to revenue growth assumptions for custom furniture and related products [3][8].