Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baidu with a target price of HKD 124.15 [5][11] Core Views - Baidu's total revenue for Q3 2024 was RMB 33.56 billion (YoY -2.6%), in line with Bloomberg expectations, while adjusted net profit was RMB 5.89 billion (YoY -19%) [3] - Core advertising revenue remains under pressure, with ad revenue at RMB 18.8 billion (YoY -4.6%), while non-marketing revenue grew 12.4% YoY to RMB 7.7 billion, driven by intelligent cloud business [3] - Baidu's gross margin for Q3 2024 was 51.1% (YoY -1.6pct), with core gross margin at 58.8% (YoY -1.3pct) [3] - AI capabilities are a long-term strategic focus, with Ernie Bot daily calls reaching 1.5 billion and user base at 430 million [3] - Intelligent driving commercialization is progressing, with RoboTaxi completing 988,000 rides in Q3 2024 (YoY +20%) and cumulative rides exceeding 8 million as of October 28, 2024 [3] Financial Performance - Baidu's core revenue for Q3 2024 was RMB 26.5 billion (YoY -0.2%), slightly better than Bloomberg's expectation of -0.8% YoY [3] - Adjusted operating profit margin for Baidu core was 25.1% in Q3 2024 (YoY +0pct, QoQ -1.1pct) [3] - For 2024E, Baidu's revenue is expected to be RMB 131.9 billion (YoY -2.0%), with adjusted net profit of RMB 26.5 billion [11] - The company's 2024E adjusted PE is maintained at 12x, implying a market cap of RMB 317.7 billion [11] AI and Cloud Business - Ernie Bot ecosystem has attracted 150,000 enterprises and 800,000 developers, with PaddlePaddle ecosystem serving 430,000 enterprises and creating 1.01 million models [3] - Over 60% of central state-owned enterprises and large private enterprises have chosen Baidu Intelligent Cloud for AI innovation [3] - Cloud business revenue in Q3 2024 was RMB 4.922 billion (YoY +11.0%), contributing significantly to non-marketing revenue growth [10] Intelligent Driving - RoboTaxi service completed 988,000 rides in Q3 2024 (YoY +20%), with cumulative rides exceeding 8 million as of October 28, 2024 [3] - The sixth-generation autonomous vehicle RT6 has been deployed in multiple cities [3]

孙金霞 021-63325888*7590 sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 曹靖楠 021-63325888*3046 caojingnan@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860520010001 王仲尧 021-63325888*3267 wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 彭楚榕 pengchurong@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860524080005 东方战略周观察：大选结束后需关注的几 个问题 2024-11-12 东方战略周观察：美国大选投票倒计时 2024-11-05 宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2024 年 11 月 26 日 东方战略周观察：俄乌局势阶段性升级 研究结论 战略动向复盘：近期俄乌冲突进一步升级，乌克兰使用美制陆军战术导弹打击俄境内的 战略纵深目标，俄方以发射新型中程导弹做出回应。 俄罗斯总统普京在电视讲话中强 调，使用西方制造的导弹袭击俄罗斯本土已使俄乌冲突 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 61.62 per share, based on a 14x PE valuation for 2024 [1][6][10]. Core Insights - The company's performance in Q3 2024 met expectations, with a focus on the release of synergistic effects in e-commerce across multiple domains [1][9]. - Daily Active Users (DAU) reached 408 million, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, while Monthly Active Users (MAU) grew by 4.3% to 714 million [1][9]. - Advertising revenue increased by 20.0% year-on-year to CNY 176 billion, accounting for 56.6% of total revenue [1][9]. - E-commerce Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) rose by 15.1% year-on-year to CNY 334.2 billion, with a monthly paid user count of 133 million [1][9]. Summary by Sections User Growth - DAU reached 408 million, MAU at 714 million, and average daily usage time increased by 1.8% to 132 minutes [1][9]. - The company expects DAU to maintain slight growth in Q4 2024, around 400 million [1][9]. Advertising Performance - Q3 2024 advertising revenue was CNY 176 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 20.0% [1][9]. - The internal advertising cycle showed stable growth, while external advertising growth was significant, particularly in media and local life sectors [1][9]. E-commerce Insights - E-commerce GMV grew by 15.1% year-on-year to CNY 334.2 billion, with a monthly paid user count of 133 million [1][9]. - The company anticipates a 14% year-on-year growth in GMV for Q4 2024, driven by e-commerce commissions [1][9]. Financial Performance - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2024 reached CNY 39.5 billion, with a gross margin of 54.3% [1][9]. - The report projects adjusted net profits of CNY 175.51 billion for 2024, with a slight upward revision due to better-than-expected cost control [6][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the new energy vehicle industry in China [1]. Core Insights - The demand for new energy vehicles continues to grow, with sales reaching 8.32 million units in the first nine months of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 33%. The installed capacity of power batteries reached 346.6 GWh, up 36% year-on-year. The report anticipates strong growth momentum for lithium battery demand through 2025 [3][18]. - The overall profitability trend is stabilizing and slightly improving, with upstream lithium resources and downstream batteries showing significant recovery. However, midstream materials are still affected by lithium carbonate impairment, particularly in ternary materials [3][18]. - The lithium battery industry has entered a phase of continuous improvement in profitability since the first quarter of 2024, following a period of decline. The report notes that many companies within the industry still have a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio below 20 times for 2025, indicating investment value [3][19]. Summary by Sections Industry News - Northvolt has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection to restructure its debts while continuing operations. The company aims to secure new funding during this period [22][23]. - LG Energy Solution has signed a contract to provide up to 8 GWh of energy storage systems (ESS) to Terra-Gen, which could power over 800,000 households. The estimated value of this contract is approximately $1.4 billion [26][29]. Price Tracking of Battery-Related Products - Lithium carbonate is priced at 79,000 CNY per ton, showing a 0.89% increase from the previous week, while lithium hydroxide is at 68,000 CNY per ton, up 1.05% [5][58]. - The price of nickel electrolytic is 129,000 CNY per ton, reflecting a 3.29% increase, while cobalt products remain stable [5][58]. Important Announcements - Enjie Co., Ltd. has signed a global strategic cooperation framework agreement with Yiwei Lithium Energy, aiming to procure no less than 3 billion square meters of battery separators from 2025 to 2031 [50][51].

Northvolt 申请破产保护，LG 获 8GWh 储 能大单 新能源汽车产业链行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 | --- | --- | |--------------|-------------------------------| | | | | | 看好 （维持） | | 国家 / 地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 新能源汽车产业链行业 | | 报告发布日期 | 2024 年 11 月 25 日 | | --- | --- | |--------|-----------------------------------------------------------| | | | | 卢日鑫 | 021-63325888*6118 | | | lurixin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号： S0860515100003 | | 李梦强 | limengqiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号： S0860517100003 | | 杨雨浓 | yangyunong@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号： S0860524090005 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 61.62 [1] Core Views - The company achieved its DAU target of 400 million, with DAU increasing by 5.4% YoY to 408 million and MAU growing by 4.3% YoY to 714 million in 3Q24 [1] - User engagement improved, with daily average time spent per user increasing by 1.8% YoY to 132 minutes, and total user time spent growing by 7.3% YoY [1] - Advertising revenue grew by 20.0% YoY to RMB 17.6 billion, accounting for 56.6% of total revenue, with significant growth in external loop advertising, particularly in short drama marketing [1] - E-commerce GMV increased by 15.1% YoY to RMB 334.2 billion, with monthly paying users (MPU) reaching 133 million, up 10.8% YoY [1] - Live streaming revenue declined by 3.9% YoY to RMB 9.3 billion, better than expected, with the number of signed agencies and hosts increasing by over 40% and 60% YoY, respectively [1] - Adjusted net profit for 3Q24 reached RMB 3.95 billion, with a gross margin of 54.3%, up 2.6 percentage points YoY [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow by 12.1% YoY in 2024E, reaching RMB 127.2 billion, with a gross margin of 54.7% [6] - Adjusted net profit for 2024E is forecasted at RMB 17.55 billion, with a net margin of 13.8% [6] - The company is valued at 14x PE for 2024E, with a target valuation of RMB 245.7 billion (HKD 265.8 billion) [6][10] Operational Highlights - The company leveraged its position as the official broadcaster for the 2024 Paris Olympics, with related content exposure reaching 310.6 billion views and 640 million users engaging with Olympic content [1] - Search functionality saw significant growth, with MAU exceeding 500 million and daily searches increasing by 20% YoY to over 700 million, peaking at over 800 million searches per day [1] - E-commerce initiatives, including the "818" promotion, saw GMV grow by over 24% YoY, with short video-driven GMV increasing by over 40% YoY [1]

Group 1: Research Focus - The report is part of the "Macro Reading" series, focusing on the cultivation of engineering and science talent in the context of macroeconomic development[5] - It highlights the importance of optimizing higher education and establishing a world-class university system in China, as outlined in the Central Committee's decisions[5] Group 2: Talent Development Initiatives - The "Top Talent Cultivation Program" has led to a 17.4% increase in the number of graduates choosing engineering and science careers, indicating its effectiveness in enhancing talent supply[5] - Various educational reforms and initiatives have been implemented to strengthen the training of high-level talent in engineering and science fields[5] Group 3: International Comparisons - Similar talent development policies are observed in renowned overseas universities, such as the "Excellence Scholar Program" at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore[5] - MIT's approach to cultivating interdisciplinary thinking skills among engineering students includes a series of interconnected projects and industry collaboration[5]

- The report discusses the performance of quantitative products, including active quantitative products and quantitative hedging products[5][21] - Active quantitative products had an average return of -1.72% last week, while quantitative hedging products had an average return of 0.15%[21] - Year-to-date, active quantitative products have an average return of 3.03%, and quantitative hedging products have an average return of -2.53%[24][25] - The top-performing active quantitative fund year-to-date is Tongtai Financial Selection A with a return of 37.19%[25] - The top-performing quantitative hedging fund year-to-date is Guangda Sunshine Hedging Strategy 6-month Holding A with a return of 2.21%[25] - The top-performing enhanced index fund year-to-date is Chuangjin Hexin Beizheng 50 Component Index Enhanced A with an excess return of 26.23% relative to the benchmark[25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating for the automotive and parts industry [5] Core Insights - The China Passenger Car Association estimates that retail sales of narrow-sense passenger cars in November will be approximately 2.4 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.4% and a month-on-month increase of 6.1% [2][15] - Retail sales of new energy passenger cars are expected to reach about 1.28 million units in November, with a year-on-year growth of 52.2% and a month-on-month growth of 7.0%, leading to a penetration rate of approximately 53.3% [2][15] - The effects of the vehicle replacement and trade-in policies continue to be released, with over 2 million applications for subsidies submitted by November 18, contributing to a more than 50% year-on-year increase in the number of scrapped vehicles recovered from January to October [2][15] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to develop next year's vehicle replacement policies in advance, which is expected to stabilize market expectations and promote a steady recovery in the automotive market [16] - The launch of the Zun Jie S800, a luxury sedan developed by Huawei and JAC Motors, is scheduled for November 26, 2024, and is anticipated to compete strongly in the high-end market [17] Summary by Sections Market Trends - The automotive sector's performance is expected to remain strong due to the ongoing effects of the vehicle replacement policies and events like "Double Eleven" and the Guangzhou Auto Show [2][15] - The automotive industry has seen a positive trend in sales, with significant growth in both traditional and new energy vehicles [18] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong performance in the third quarter and those with high growth certainty, particularly in the automotive and parts sectors [18] - Recommended companies include BYD, JAC Motors, Changan Automobile, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, SAIC Motor, and Yutong Bus, among others [19] Sales Tracking - From November 1 to 17, the wholesale sales of passenger cars reached 1.271 million units, a year-on-year increase of 37% [30] - Retail sales during the same period were 1.106 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30% [30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the furniture and home appliance retail industry [4] Core Insights - In October 2024, retail sales of furniture and home appliances showed year-on-year growth, with furniture retail sales reaching 15.2 billion yuan, a 7.4% increase, and home appliances and audio-visual equipment retail sales totaling 99.3 billion yuan, a 39.2% increase [51][58] - The report highlights a divergence in the price trends of upstream raw materials for furniture and home appliances, with TDI prices down 1.5% and MDI prices stable [16][21] - Domestic real estate demand is under pressure, with new residential sales area in October 2024 down 0.5% year-on-year, and cumulative sales area down 17.7% for the first ten months [43][47] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The report notes that all sectors in the post-real estate cycle, except for white goods and service robots, outperformed the market, with the kitchen appliance sector rising 2.21% [16][24] 2. Domestic Sales Data Tracking - Retail sales of furniture and home appliances in October 2024 showed positive growth, with furniture sales at 15.2 billion yuan (up 7.4%) and home appliances at 99.3 billion yuan (up 39.2%) [51][58] - Upstream raw material prices for furniture and home appliances exhibited mixed trends, with TDI prices down 1.5% and MDI prices stable [21][22] - The report indicates a decline in real estate transactions, with new home sales area down 0.5% year-on-year in October 2024 [43][47] 3. Export Data Tracking - Exports of home appliances and furniture also saw year-on-year growth in October 2024, with furniture exports at $5.388 billion (up 2.5%) and home appliance exports at $8.576 billion (up 22.8%) [58][59] - The report mentions that U.S. existing home sales increased by 2.9% year-on-year in October 2024, while new private housing starts decreased by 4.0% [57][58]