本报告仅供 Choice 东方财富 使用，请勿传阅。 行业周报 2024 年 07 月 28 日 有色金属 998345837 美国 GDP 数据缓和衰退预期，工业金属 价格震荡企稳 工业金属：美国 GDP 数据缓和衰退预期，工业金属震荡企稳 国内来看，央行 7 月 MLF 操作中标利率 2.30%，环比下降 20bp，多 家国有大行宣布下调存款利率。海外来看，美国 7 月标普全球制造 业 PMI 初值 49.5，创 7 个月新低，且低于预期的 51.7，但服务业 PMI 初值 56 创 28 个月新高。欧元区 7 月制造业 PMI 初值 45.6，环 比下降触及七个月低点。美国二季度实际 GDP 年化季环比初值 2.8%，高于市场预期的 2%，市场对海外衰退预期有所缓和，工业金 属在调整后逐渐震荡企稳。印度莫迪新政府首份预算案出炉，将提 供 2 万亿卢比的一揽子计划来增加就业、刺激经济，新兴市场国家 需求前景可期。建议关注：洛阳钼业、金诚信、西部矿业、藏格矿 业、河钢资源、江西铜业、铜陵有色、云南铜业、华锡有色、锡业 股份、兴业银锡、神火股份、云铝股份、中国铝业、天山铝业、创 新新材、南山铝业、索通发展等。 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|-------|--------------------------|---------------------------------------------| | | | | | | | | | | 国投证券研究报告 | 2024年7月27 日 | | | | | 2024W30 | 国投证券消费 一 周 看 图 | | | | | 家电\|食饮\|医药 家电 Q2 | \|轻工\| 纺服 前瞻：内销 趋缓，外销延续高增 | 本报告仅供 Choice 东方财富 使用，请勿传阅。 | --- | --- | |-------|----------------------------| | | | | | 家电行业首席分析师李奕臻： | 2021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q2 80% 空调内销量同比增速 本报告仅供 Choice 东方财富 使用，请勿传阅。 空调外销量同比增速 本报告仅供 Choi ...

2024 年 07 月 28 月 生物區的II 园行业周报 新药周观点: 科伦博泰 TROP2 ADC 有望 子 ESMO 2024 披露多个数据, 多项 3 期 临床积极开展中 ▨★周新商行情闻源: 2024 年 7 月 22 日-2024 年 7 月 26 日，新药板块涨幅前 5 企业： 歌 礼制药（10. 19%）、华领医药（7. 44%）、药明巨诺（3. 45%）、科奇 (3. 36%)、贝达药业 (1. 39%)，陕幅前５企业：永泰生物 (-17. 88%)、 省药控股（−16.55%）、徐琪医药（−13.85%）、艾力新（−13.84%）、 邊悠臣 药（−11. 64%）。 日本周新商行业重点分析： 根据近日拔露的 ESMO 2024 大会病务标题，科伦博泰有望手 ESMO 2024 大会技篮共 TROP2 ADC 产康沙实珠单抗（SKB264/MK-2870/sac- TMT）的 3 项临床数据，包括 2 项口头报告（分别针对子官内疑虑&卵 果焼、宮領焼）及１项壁报（针对三阴孔腺焼），期待后续具体数据 坊 28. 目前科伦博泰 TROP2 ADC 产康沙实味半抗 （SKB264/MK-2870/ ...

本报告仅供 Choice 东方财富 使用，请勿传阅。 行业周报 2024 年 07 月 28 日 生物医药Ⅱ 998345837 新药周观点：科伦博泰 TROP2 ADC 有望 于 ESMO 2024 披露多个数据，多项 3 期 临床积极开展中 本周新药行情回顾： 2024 年 7 月 22 日-2024 年 7 月 26 日，新药板块涨幅前 5 企业：歌 礼制药（10.19%）、华领医药（7.44%）、药明巨诺（3.45%）、科笛 （3.36%）、贝达药业（1.39%），跌幅前 5 企业：永泰生物（-17.88%）、 首药控股（-16.55%）、德琪医药（-13.85%）、艾力斯（-13.84%）、 迪哲医药（-11.64%）。 本周新药行业重点分析： 根据近日披露的 ESMO 2024 大会摘要标题，科伦博泰有望于 ESMO 2024 大会披露其 TROP2 ADC 芦康沙妥珠单抗（SKB264/MK-2870/sacTMT）的 3 项临床数据，包括 2 项口头报告（分别针对子宫内膜癌&卵 巢癌、宫颈癌）及 1 项壁报（针对三阴乳腺癌），期待后续具体数据 披露。 目前科伦博泰 TROP2 ADC 芦康沙妥 ...

Sales Performance - In Q2 2023, Midea's refrigerator domestic sales growth outpaced the industry average[1] - Haier's refrigerator external sales showed significant growth in Q2 2023[4] - TCL's washing machine internal sales in April-May 2023 grew faster than the industry average[5] Market Trends - The overall domestic sales growth for home appliances is slowing, while external sales continue to show high growth[44] - Air conditioning and refrigerator internal sales decreased by 2% and 1% respectively, while external sales increased by 39% and 19%[44] - Kitchen appliances like range hoods and gas stoves maintained steady growth, with internal sales increasing by 4% and 5% respectively, while integrated stoves saw a decline of 17%[44] Future Outlook - The home appliance industry is expected to benefit from a new round of replacement policies in the second half of the year, potentially boosting domestic sales[44] - External sales are anticipated to maintain high growth driven by emerging markets[44]

2024 年 07 月 27 日 东睦股份(600114.SH) 粉末冶金龙头，三大新材料技术平台融合驱动： 折叠屏市场正经历快速增长，2024Q1 中国折叠屏手机出货量增速达 83%。铰链是折叠屏手机的核心部件，由结构复杂且尺寸微小的金属 零件组装而成。由于 MIM 技术能够制造复杂形状的零件，且能够进行 高精度、自动化加工，因此折叠屏手机的铰链件大多用 MIM 进行生 产。公司借助子公司上海富驰和东莞华晶在 MIM 行业的深厚积淀，取 得行业领先地位，有望深度受益折叠屏手机的快速发展。 粉末冶金龙头行稳致远，折叠屏手机铰 链助推成长 公司秉持"P&S、SMC 和 MIM 三大新材料技术平台为基石，致力于为 新能源和高端制造提供最优新材料解决方案及增值服务"的发展战 略，下游覆盖包括汽车、消费电子、光伏等在内的多个领域。 P&S 和 SMC 业务下游应用广泛，成长空间广阔： SMC 方面，据 Business Research Insights，2028 年全球软磁粉芯 市场规模将达到 38 亿美元，公司 2023 年软磁材料收入达 8.26 亿人 民币，在国内领先，但全球市占率仍有较大提升空间。下游光伏、 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a Buy-A rating to the company with a 6-month target price of 17.64 yuan, equivalent to a 2024 dynamic P/E ratio of 18x [4][13] Core Views - The company's core product, Reduning Injection, is expected to continue its strong sales growth, while secondary products are poised for accelerated growth [2] - The company's R&D achievements are outstanding, and its sales reforms are worth anticipating [2] - The company is expected to see new sales increments as several products enter the NDA or late-stage clinical phases and are expected to be approved in the coming years [4] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 4.801 billion yuan, 5.451 billion yuan, and 6.121 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 572 million yuan, 655 million yuan, and 740 million yuan [4] - The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is projected to be 0.98 yuan, 1.13 yuan, and 1.27 yuan, respectively [16] - The company's ROE is expected to improve from 10.2% in 2024 to 11.5% in 2026 [16] Operational Highlights - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 74.5%-74.7% from 2024 to 2026 [8] - The company's R&D expenses are forecasted to increase from 758.5 million yuan in 2024 to 967.1 million yuan in 2026, maintaining a high R&D intensity [8] - The company's asset turnover efficiency is expected to improve, with fixed asset turnover days decreasing from 170 days in 2024 to 127 days in 2026 [8] Recent Performance - In H1 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.26 billion yuan, down 11.49% YoY, and net profit of 265 million yuan, down 3.73% YoY [11] - The performance pressure is attributed to decreased demand for flu-related products and the impact of ongoing marketing reforms [12] R&D Pipeline - The company has 3 new traditional Chinese medicine drugs submitted for NDA and 2 completing Phase III clinical trials as of H1 2024 [19] - The company maintains high R&D investment, with R&D expenses reaching 339 million yuan in H1 2024, accounting for 15.01% of revenue [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the home appliance industry, indicating an expected investment return that will exceed the performance of the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [10]. Core Insights - The introduction of the "old-for-new" policy is expected to significantly stimulate demand for home appliance upgrades, with a central government allocation of approximately 278 billion yuan for subsidies [1][7]. - The policy emphasizes greater subsidies for high-efficiency appliances, which is anticipated to enhance product structure upgrades within the industry [1][7]. - The report suggests that the home appliance sector has accumulated substantial unmet demand during the pandemic, which will be accelerated by the new subsidy measures [7]. Summary by Sections Policy Impact - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance have issued measures to support large-scale equipment updates and the "old-for-new" program, with around 300 billion yuan in special bonds allocated [1]. - The central government will provide approximately 1,500 billion yuan in long-term special bond funds to support the implementation of these measures, with a focus on home appliances and automobiles [1]. Subsidy Details - Consumers purchasing appliances with energy efficiency ratings of 2 or higher will receive a 15% subsidy on the sales price, while those buying appliances rated 1 or higher will receive an additional 5% subsidy [1]. - Each consumer can receive a subsidy for one unit of each product category, capped at 2,000 yuan per unit [1]. Market Projections - The report forecasts that the subsidy policy could lead to a significant increase in the sales volume of major appliance categories, with projected year-on-year growth rates for air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines, and televisions expected to improve significantly under various subsidy scenarios [8][9]. - The total sales volume for major appliances is projected to increase by 12% in 2024, driven by the subsidy policy [7]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends leading companies in the home appliance sector, including Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, and Gree Electric Appliances, as they are expected to benefit the most from the new policies [5][7]. - Additionally, upstream component manufacturers, particularly those producing electronic expansion valves, are also expected to see increased orders due to the anticipated rise in appliance sales [2][7].

本报告仅供 Choice 东方财富 使用，请勿传阅。 行业快报 2024 年 07 月 26 日 家电 998345839 以旧换新支持政策出台，利好家电更新 需求 投资评级 领先大市-A 维持评级 事件：7 月 25 日，国家发改委、财政部印发《关于加力支持大 规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新的若干措施》（下文简称《措施》）， 统筹安排 3000 亿元左右超长期特别国债资金，加力支持大规模设 备更新和消费品以旧换新。 中央财政对本次以旧换新补贴活动的支持力度较大：据《措施》 显示，国家发改委直接向地方安排 1500 亿元左右超长期特别国债 资金，用于落实其中六条所列支持政策，包括家电、汽车等产品。 对家电、汽车等产品以旧换新的支持资金按照总体 9:1 的原则实 行央地共担。假设平均分配资金，预计央地两级政府对家电产品 以旧换新支持资金约 278 亿元（计算方法： 1500 ÷ 6 × 10 9 ≈ 278）。中央财政对本次以旧换新补贴活动的支持力度较大，预计 将有效刺激家电更新需求释放。 本次政策对高能效家电的补贴力度更大：《措施》提出，对个人 消费者购买 2 级及以上能效或水效标准的冰箱、洗衣机、电视、 空调 ...

本报告仅供 Choice 东方财富 使用，请勿传阅。 24Q2 业绩亮眼，订单饱满延续 大客户 PMI 订单表现仍优秀：我们取平均数 2.08 亿元作为净利 润值，同时以 2024Q4 的历史高位利润率 28.9%为假设进行回推， 得到收入值或为 7.2 亿元。以公司 2023 年收入/销量得到的均价 45.2 元进行计算，嘉益 2024Q2 或销售了 1593 万只保温杯，仍保 持订单饱满的态势。考虑到公司第一大客户 PMI 业务占比较高， 我们认为当前嘉益的业绩表现反映出 PMI 订单仍保持旺盛。 投资建议：嘉益股份是保温杯壶制造领先企业，海外大客户产 品销售持续火热利好嘉益订单表现。基于销售情况的火热超出我 们此前的预期，我们适当上调了盈利预测。维持买入-A 投资评级， 给予公司 2024 年 15x PE,6 个月目标价 102.15 元。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|---------------------------------|---------|---------|--------- ...