公司快报 2024 年 07 月 15 日 歌尔股份(002241.SZ) 24H1 业绩预告亮眼,深度布局 XR 前景 广阔 事件: 公司发布业绩预告,2024H1 公司预计实现归母净利润 11.81~12.65 亿元,同增 180%–200%;扣非归母净利润 11.47~12.35 亿元,同增 160%–180%。其中 24Q2 单季度,公司预计实现归母净利润 8.01~8.86 亿元,同增 154-181%。公司业绩预告亮眼,主要系在强化精益运营、 修复提升盈利能力的经营导向下,智能声学整机和智能硬件业务的盈 利能力得到改善。 AI 赋能,AR 眼镜终端正迎来蓬勃发展: 据 IDC,2023 年,宏观经济压力疲软以及商业领域的支出放缓阻碍了 XR 市场的出货量增长,全球 VR/MR/AR 增强现实设备出货量约为 670 万台,同比下滑约 23.5%。IDC 预计 2024 年将成为复苏的一年,XR 头 显的出货量预计将增长 46.4%。分品类来看,AR/ER 产品凭借其相对 亲民的售价、更轻便的佩戴感受和更广泛的使用场景取得了相较 MR/VR等设备更好的成长。据IDC,国内的AR产品(含Extend R ...

本报告仅供 Choice 东方财富 使用,请勿传阅。 2024 年 07 月 15 日 通富微电(002156.SZ) 下游需求回暖,24Q2 净利润环比大幅 提高 事件:公司发布 2024 年半年度业绩预告,报告期内实现归属于 公司股东净利润 2.88-3.75 亿元,比上年同期增长 253.44%- 299.79%;扣除非经常性损益后的净利润 2.65-3.55 亿元,比上年 同期增长 201.37%-235.80%。 下游需求回暖,24Q2 净利润环比大幅提高:半导体行业于 2024 年上半年迎来复苏,市场需求回暖,公司产能利用率提高,带动 24H1 营业收入同比大幅增长。从 24Q2 来看,公司营业收入同比 2023 年第二季度、环比 2024 年第一季度,均明显增长。同时, 得益于加强管理及成本费用的管控,公司整体效益显著提升, 2024Q2 公司预计实现归母净利润 1.90-2.77 亿元,同比实现扭亏 为盈,环比增长 92.41%-180.74%。 AMD 推出 MI 350,性能大幅提高: 在2024年Computex大会上,AMD展示了其最新的AI芯片Instinct MI350,该 GPU ...

行业专题 2024 年 07 月 15 日 传媒 英伟达入局加速产业进程,特斯拉等积 极推动量产及应用落地 人形机器人落地速度或将最快。人形机器人或是中国 AI 技术方 向上弯道超车的节点,它既是技术又是落地应用,作为硬件更被 国内偏好,在特斯拉带领下,人形机器人的发展路线、产业链合 作分工也均较为清晰;而相比较之下,AI PC、AI 手机等只出现 产品雏形,在产业链上还面临主机厂商与头部应用厂商的边界划 分,仍有待进一步发展。因此我们预判 6 大空间的 AI 落地速度排 序:人形机器人/MR 眼镜>PC/垂类硬件>手机/出海,人形机器 人是 6 个空间中 AI 落地最快的。 端到端方案日趋主流,关注仿真平台能力进化。类似于自动驾 驶方案,以谷歌 RT-1、Plam-E、RT-2 的演进方向来看,人形机器 人正在从两段式端到端走向一段式端到端方案。但考虑考虑人形 机器人方案复杂度高,预计短期内仍以两段式端到端为主。从数 据层面,采集数据质量高但采集难度大且成本高,仿真数据质量 对缩短模型训练周期、提升模型质量至关重要,强调关注仿真平 台在大模型加持下的持续进化。 特斯拉全栈自研,英伟达入局降低研发门槛。英伟达 ...

行业周报 2024 年 07 月 15 日 农林牧渔 猪价易涨难跌,仔猪价持续下跌或传导 能繁增长幅度趋缓 生猪养殖:猪价易涨难跌,关注二育轮换节奏及养殖情绪对猪 价的影响 价格端:本周生猪均价 18.62 元/kg,周环比+3.16%,两周环比+2.62%; 仔猪价格 666 元/头,周环比-5.13%,两周环比-6.20%。根据 iFinD 数据,本周猪肉批发价格 24.55 元/kg,周环比+1.01%。 供给端:本周生猪日均屠宰量为 13.22 万头,周环比+0.88%。 周观点:猪价易涨难跌,关注二育轮换节奏及养殖情绪对猪价的影响。 涌益咨询点评显示,本周猪肉批发价格及屠宰量环比持平略增,终端 需求仍低位,但生猪价格维持小幅上涨趋势。二育群体前期抛压离场 后存栏压力缓解,近期养殖端惜售和涨价情绪渐强,支撑周内生猪价 格上涨。仔猪价格开始回落,7 月后仔猪对应 25 年春季淡季出栏, 仔猪价持续下跌或传导能繁增长幅度趋缓。 经历 2023 年养殖深度亏损和能繁母猪去化,产能去化幅度已足以支 撑周期反转。今年一季度仍有产能去化,根据产能传导节奏,预期今 年二季度至春节前供需趋紧,猪价将保持上涨趋势。猪周 ...

本报告仅供 Choice 东方财富 使用,请勿传阅。 行业专题 2024 年 07 月 15 日 传媒 英伟达入局加速产业进程,特斯拉等积 极推动量产及应用落地 人形机器人落地速度或将最快。人形机器人或是中国 AI 技术方 向上弯道超车的节点,它既是技术又是落地应用,作为硬件更被 国内偏好,在特斯拉带领下,人形机器人的发展路线、产业链合 作分工也均较为清晰;而相比较之下,AI PC、AI 手机等只出现 产品雏形,在产业链上还面临主机厂商与头部应用厂商的边界划 分,仍有待进一步发展。因此我们预判 6 大空间的 AI 落地速度排 序:人形机器人/MR 眼镜>PC/垂类硬件>手机/出海,人形机器 人是 6 个空间中 AI 落地最快的。 端到端方案日趋主流,关注仿真平台能力进化。类似于自动驾 驶方案,以谷歌 RT-1、Plam-E、RT-2 的演进方向来看,人形机器 人正在从两段式端到端走向一段式端到端方案。但考虑考虑人形 机器人方案复杂度高,预计短期内仍以两段式端到端为主。从数 据层面,采集数据质量高但采集难度大且成本高,仿真数据质量 对缩短模型训练周期、提升模型质量至关重要,强调关注仿真平 台在大模型加持下的持续 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" for the agricultural sector [3][56]. Core Insights - The report highlights that pig prices are easier to rise than to fall, with a focus on the impact of breeding rotation and farming sentiment on prices [2][17]. - The average price of live pigs this week is 18.62 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 3.16% and a two-week increase of 2.62%. In contrast, the price of piglets has decreased to 666 CNY/head, down 5.13% week-on-week and 6.20% over two weeks [2][17]. - The report anticipates a tightening supply and demand situation from the second quarter to the Spring Festival, leading to a sustained upward trend in pig prices [2][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The agricultural sector experienced a decline of 2.02% this week, underperforming compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen indices [9][10]. - Sub-sectors such as feed saw the largest decline at -3.49%, while planting showed a slight increase of +0.04% [12]. 2. Industry Data Tracking 2.1. Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs is 18.62 CNY/kg, with a slight increase observed. The average daily slaughter volume is 132,200 pigs, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.88% [17]. 2.2. Poultry Farming - The average price of white feather broilers is 7.29 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 2.24%. The price of broiler chicks has risen to 2.12 CNY/chick, up 12.77% week-on-week [23]. 2.3. Planting Sector - The average price of corn is 2,477.74 CNY/ton, showing a slight decrease of 0.09%. In contrast, the average price of domestic soybeans is 4,478.42 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.67% [28]. 2.4. Aquaculture - Prices for various aquatic products remain stable, with carp averaging 19.00 CNY/kg and shrimp at 300.00 CNY/kg, both showing year-on-year increases [33]. 3. Industry Events - New corn variety "Linyu 6" has been approved for cultivation, showcasing significant yield potential and resilience [36]. - China has purchased 132,000 tons of new U.S. soybeans, marking the first purchase of the year [38].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperforming the Market - A" [2] Core Viewpoints - The market size of artificial grass is steadily increasing due to the rising penetration rate, and the competitive landscape is continuously improving [2] - Artificial grass has significant performance and water-saving advantages compared to natural grass [3] - The cost-saving advantage of artificial grass over natural grass is notable, with a projected 65% savings over 12 years [5][6] Summary by Sections Performance Comparison - Artificial grass has a longer lifespan of 8-15 years compared to natural grass, which lasts about 5-6 years [4] - The installation period for artificial grass is approximately 1.5 months, while natural grass requires 3-4 months of maintenance before use [4] Cost Analysis - Initial installation costs for artificial grass are higher, but maintenance costs are significantly lower compared to natural grass [3][5] - Over a 12-year period, the total cost of artificial grass installation is approximately $82.59 thousand, while natural grass costs around $235.70 thousand, resulting in total savings of $153 thousand [6] Market Dynamics - The global market for artificial grass is expected to continue growing, with leading companies like Gongchuang Turf and Qingdao Qinghe expanding their overseas production capacity [21] - The competitive landscape is divided into four tiers, with established players having solid qualifications and certifications [16]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The national building materials and home furnishings prosperity index (BHI) shows a year-on-year decline of 6.8%, but the rate of decline is narrowing [27] - The online sales of smart toilets reached 1.26 billion yuan in June, with a year-on-year growth of 5.5%, indicating a slowdown in growth [20] - The market for artificial turf is expected to grow at an 8% CAGR from 2021 to 2025, driven by increasing penetration rates and cost advantages over natural grass [60][70] Group 2: Price Trends - TDI and MDI prices decreased by 3.6% and 1.1% respectively compared to the previous week [29] - Paper prices remained stable week-on-week, with specific paper types showing varied year-on-year changes [49] - The price of Kweichow Moutai has rebounded, indicating a recovery in the premium liquor market [14] Group 3: Market Share and Competition - The market share of the brand R&T in the smart toilet segment is 7.7% as of June [23] - The competitive landscape for artificial turf is improving, with the top five companies' market concentration (CR5) increasing to 41% from 2019 to 2021 [66][70] - The overseas production capacity of leading companies in the artificial turf market is expanding, with significant investments in Vietnam and Mexico [86]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy - A" with a target price of 13.14 CNY, corresponding to a dynamic PE of 18X for 2024 [4][7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to maintain high growth in performance, with a gross margin of 20.82% and a net margin of 3.42% for 2023, showing year-on-year increases of approximately 4 percentage points and 1 percentage point respectively [2]. - The company is focusing on "profit growth, business growth, and capability growth" as its core tasks for 2024, aiming for significant improvements in operational efficiency and profitability [2]. - The electric loader penetration rate is rapidly increasing, with sales growth of electric loaders expected to continue leading the industry [3]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting revenues of 304.1 billion CNY, 345.3 billion CNY, and 404.3 billion CNY, with corresponding net profits of 14.5 billion CNY, 20.0 billion CNY, and 26.7 billion CNY [3]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 275.2 billion CNY, with net profit expected to reach 8.7 billion CNY [8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated to be 0.73 CNY, with a net profit margin of 4.8% [10][30]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 5.2% in 2023 to 8.3% in 2024 [30]. Market Position and Trends - The company holds the largest market share in the domestic loader market and has successfully launched electric and "National IV" products [3]. - The domestic demand for earth-moving equipment is recovering, and the company is expected to benefit from the positive trends in the excavator and loader markets [16].

本报告版权属于国投证券股份有限公司，各项声明请参见报告尾页。 2 策略定期报告 图 41. 美国 6 月服务端 CPI 继续放缓，商品端 CPI 维持负增长 ......................23 图 42. 美国 6 月 PPI 数据超预期反弹 ............................................24 策略定期报告 结合近期与市场投资者的交流，复盘本周全球和 A 股的行情与市场环境，有以下几个特征值 得关注： 本周主要美股普涨。其中纳指收涨 0.25%，标普收涨 0.87%，道指收涨 1.59%。盘面上，本周 共十个板块累涨，能源板块涨 0.22%，金融板块涨 0.22%，必选消费板块涨 0.42%，工业板块 涨 0.53%，医疗保健板块涨 0.59%，房地产板块涨 0.69%，公用事业板块涨 0.73%，科技板块 涨 0.92%，原材料板块涨 0.93%，可选消费板块涨 0.96%。共一个板块下跌，标普电信板块跌 0.75%。消息面上，美国 6 月消费者物价指数(CPI)环比下降 0.1%，这是自 2020 年 5 月以来 首次下滑，此前市场预期为增长 0.1 ...