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上海建工:上海地区建筑龙头,国改市值管理催化
国泰君安· 2024-11-18 23:45
国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.11.19 | --- | |-----------------------------------| | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 韩其成 ( 分析师 ) | | 021-38676162 | | hanqicheng8@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 S0880516030004 | | --- | --- | |---------------------------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | 郭浩然 ( 分析师 ) | | | 010-83939793 | | | guohaoran025968@gtjas.com | | | S0880524020002 | | 本报告导读: 上海建工是中国建筑行业先行者和排头兵,证监会发布《上市公司监管指引第 10 号 —市值管理》,PB 破净公司估值有望回归,同时受益上海市国企改革政策催化。 投资要点: 上海 ...
通信设备及服务2024年第50周周报:一线核心标的有望迎来估值修复
国泰君安· 2024-11-18 12:27
国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.11.17 ——2024 年第 50 周周报 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------------------|-------------------------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 王彦龙 ( 分析师 ) | 苏哲西 ( 研究助理 ) | | | | | 010-83939775 | 021-38031652 | | | | | wangyanlong@gtjas.com | Suzhexi028697@gtjas.com | | | | 登记编号 | S0880519100003 | S0880123070147 | | | 本报告导读: 价投龙头优势明显,有望上行修复;建议关注光模块、运营商、交换机设备等细分 领域龙头 ...
阿里巴巴-W:阿里巴巴FY25Q2业绩点评:淘天货币化率企稳,AI布局亮眼
国泰君安· 2024-11-18 11:58
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Alibaba-W (9988 HK) with a target price of 121 HKD for FY2025 [2] Core Views - Alibaba's Take Rate has stabilized due to service fees and full-site promotion, with continued investments in supply chain and user experience improvement [1][2] - Cloud Intelligence segment's profitability significantly exceeded expectations, with multiple businesses showing substantial reductions in losses [1][2] - The company's share repurchase program is progressing steadily, with a 24% YoY increase in repurchase amount to $4.1 billion in the quarter [2] Financial Performance - Alibaba's FY2025E-FY2027E revenue is forecasted at 10218/11234/12049 billion RMB, with adjusted net profit of 1441/1825/1905 billion RMB [2] - Taobao and Tmall Group's revenue reached 990 billion RMB in CY24Q3, a 1% YoY increase, with customer management revenue up 2% to 704 billion RMB [2] - Cloud Intelligence revenue grew 7% YoY to 296 billion RMB, with adjusted EBITA surging 89% to 26.6 billion RMB [2] Business Segment Analysis Taobao and Tmall Group - Revenue increased 1% YoY to 990 billion RMB in CY24Q3, driven by double-digit order growth and 88VIP membership reaching 46 million [2] - Take Rate remained stable YoY, with a 0.6% service fee introduced in September expected to contribute fully in CY24Q4 [2] Cloud Intelligence Group - AI-related revenue has maintained triple-digit growth for five consecutive quarters [2] - The group reduced Tongyi Qianwen API prices while advancing scale effects and technological advantages [2] International Commerce - Revenue grew 29% YoY, primarily driven by strong growth in Choice [2] - Adjusted EBITA improved significantly to -29 billion RMB, better than the expected -36 billion RMB [2] Local Services and Digital Media - Local services revenue increased 14% YoY to 177 billion RMB, with adjusted EBITA margin improving by 14 percentage points to -2% [21] - Digital media and entertainment revenue decreased 1% YoY to 57 billion RMB, with adjusted EBITA margin improving by 0.4 percentage points to -3.1% [25] Share Repurchase - The company repurchased $4.1 billion worth of shares in the quarter, a $2.4 billion YoY increase [2] - FY2025 cumulative net share reduction reached 4.4%, with $22 billion remaining in the repurchase program [2] Valuation - The sum-of-the-parts valuation for FY25E stands at 2696 billion RMB, with a 20% holding discount applied [28] - The target price for US-listed BABA is $125, while the HK-listed 9988 HK target is 121 HKD [28]
传媒行业周报2024年45期:AI应用落地效果积极,关注营销、情感、教育领域
国泰君安· 2024-11-18 11:56
股 票 研 究 [table_Authors] 陈筱(分析师) 杨昊(分析师) 李芓漪(分析师) 021-38675863 021-38032025 021-38038428 chenxiao@gtjas.com yanghao029514@gtjas.com liziyi@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880515040003 S0880524020001 S0880523080004 行 业 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.11.16 AI 应用落地效果积极,关注营销、情感、教育领域 [Table_Industry] 传播文化业 [Table_Invest] 评级: 增持 上次评级: 增持 ——传媒行业周报 2024 年 45 期 [Table_Report] 相关报告 传播文化业《TikTok 在美发展或迎拐点,AI 出海 应用实现高增》2024.11.09 传播文化业《TikTok:商业化拐点或在即,万亿 市场可期》2024 ...
航空行业策略:24Q3航空盈利再超预期,盈利中枢上升可期
国泰君安· 2024-11-18 11:55
24Q3盈利再超预期,盈利中枢上升可期 -航空行业策略 行业评级: 增持 2024/ 11 / 17 姓名:岳鑫 (分析师) 邮箱: yuexin@gtjas.com 电话: 0755-23976758 证书编号: S0880514030006 姓名: 陈亦凡(研究助理) 邮箱: chenyifan029909@gtjas.com 电话:0755-23976666 证书编号: S0880124070025 《24Q3盈利再超预期,盈利中枢上升可期》 投资要点 (行业评级: 增持) 01 中国航空具长逻辑,淡季逆向布局正当时 · 中国航空业具超预期大逻辑。待供需恢复,考虑票价市场化与机队增速放缓,中国航司盈利中枢上升将超预期 · 目前市场预期仍处低位,提示油价下跌期权,建议淡季逆向布局 · 增持评级:中国国航、吉祥航空、南方航空、春秋航空、中国东航 中国航空业Q3连续两年盈利高于2019年,好于预期 02 · 估算2024Q3全行业盈利同比下降约两成,A股航司归母净利同比下降14%,再次高于2019Q3,扣汇业绩仍超预期 · 收入:24Q3同比增长5%,反映航空需求持续增长。周转继续恢复,座收同比降幅好于预期, ...
2024年10月上市险企保费数据点评:寿险阶段性回调,财险增长改善
国泰君安· 2024-11-18 11:55
股 票 研 究 行 业 事 件 快 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------| | | | —— 2024 年 10 月上市险企保费数据点评 | | | [table_Authors] 刘欣琦 ( 分析师 ) | 李嘉木 ( 分析师 ) | | | 021-38676647 | 021-38038619 | | | liuxinqi@gtjas.com | lijiamu026075@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880515050001 | S0880524030003 | 本报告导读: 1-10 月寿险保费增速阶段性回落,预计为产品切换及业务策略转向开门红筹备所致; 财险保费增速边际改善,车险及非车均回暖;看好全年 NBV 增长及盈利改善。 投资要点: [Table_Summary] 10 月寿险保费有所回落,预计为产品切换及业务策略转换所致。1- 10 月上市险企寿险累计保费 ...
农业行业周报:寒潮将至,等待猪价的需求提振
国泰君安· 2024-11-18 11:55
股 票 研 究 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.11.17 [table_Authors] 王艳君(分析师) 林逸丹(分析师) 021-38674633 021-38038436 wangyanjun022998@gtjas.com linyidan030085@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880520100002 S0880524090001 行 业 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 寒潮将至,等待猪价的需求提振 [Table_Industry] 农业 [Table_Invest] 评级: 增持 上次评级: 增持 [Table_Report] 相关报告 本报告导读: 种子:生物育种技术推广力度加大。宠物:双 11 彰显宠物经济景气,看好国产品牌 崛起。生猪养殖:等待寒潮降温带来需求提振。 投资要点: [种子Table_Summary] :粮食安全自主可控是确定方向,生物育种技术推广力度加大。 美国若再度对中国加征关税,中国自美国进口大豆玉米或持续减少。 根据农业 ...
海外科技行业2024年第67期:AI智能体升温,英伟达与软银合作
国泰君安· 2024-11-18 11:54
国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.11.17 [table_Authors] 秦和平(分析师) 钟吉芸(研究助理) 0755-23976666 0755-23976666 qinheping027734@gtjas.com zhongjiyun029768@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880523110003 S0880124060021 证 券 研 究 报 告 AI 智能体升温,英伟达与软银合作 [Table_Industry] 海外科技 [Table_Invest] 评级: 增持 上次评级: 增持 ——海外科技行业 2024 年第 67 期 本报告导读: AI 智能体升温,OpenAI、谷歌均计划发布相关产品。英伟达与软银合作打造日本 AI 基建,并考虑供应链多元化,或与日本 Rapidus 合作。 投资要点: [Table_Summary] 大盘行情上,(2024.11.10 -2024.11.16)恒生指数下跌 6.28%,恒生 科技指数下 ...
军工行业周报:第十五届珠海航展开幕,加贺号完成F-35起降测试
国泰君安· 2024-11-18 10:08
股 票 研 究 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.11.18 [table_Authors] 彭磊(分析师) 周明頔(研究助理) 010-83939806 010-83939792 penglei018712@gtjas.com zhoumingdi028698@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880518100003 S0880123070156 行 业 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 第十五届珠海航展开幕,加贺号完成 F-35 起降测试 [Table_Industry] 军工 [Table_Invest] 评级: 增持 上次评级: 增持 [Table_subIndustry] 细分行业评级 [Table_Report] 相关报告 本报告导读: 投资要点: [Table_Summary] 军工板块回调,到 2043 年中国民航机队规模将超 1 万架。1) 上周 (11.11-11.15)上证综指下跌 3.52%,创业板指数下跌 3.36%,国防军 工指数下跌 9.3 ...
家纺行业更新:家纺补贴范围扩大,有望拉动消费热潮
国泰君安· 2024-11-18 10:08
Industry Investment Rating - The report assigns an **Overweight** rating to the textile and apparel industry [1] Core Views - Recent government subsidies for home textiles have expanded from Shanghai to nationwide, potentially boosting consumer confidence [4] - The subsidy policy is expected to drive a consumption boom in the home textile sector [2] - Leading home textile brands with strong cash flows and low capital expenditure needs are likely to maintain high dividend payouts [5] Subsidy Policy Details Online Subsidies - **Phase 1 (Double 11 period)**: Subsidies of 15% were available on Taobao for products like bedding sets, down quilts, silk quilts, and pillows, but limited to Shanghai [5] - **Phase 2 (Post-Double 11)**: Taobao subsidies expanded to cover all mainland China, while JD.com introduced a nationwide subsidy of 20% across all categories [5] Offline Subsidies - **Shanghai**: Home textile products were included in the city's consumption subsidy policy in late October, offering a 15% subsidy with a maximum of CNY 2000 per transaction [5] - **Xiamen**: Bedding products were added to the subsidy list with a 20% subsidy and a maximum of CNY 2000 per transaction [5] Company Participation - Leading brands like **Luolai**, **Mercury**, and **Fuanna** have actively participated in both online and offline subsidy activities [5] - **Luolai**: 40% of revenue comes from East China, with 38% from online sales [9] - **Mercury**: 57% of revenue comes from online sales, with 17% from East China (excluding online) [9] - **Fuanna**: 26% of revenue comes from East China, with 40% from online sales [9] Valuation and Recommendations - **Luolai**: 2024E PE of 16x, 2025E PE of 13x, 2026E PE of 12x [9] - **Fuanna**: 2024E PE of 12x, 2025E PE of 11x, 2026E PE of 11x [9] - **Mercury**: 2024E PE of 10x, 2025E PE of 9x, 2026E PE of 8x [9] - The report recommends **Luolai** and **Fuanna**, with **Mercury** as a beneficiary [5] Market Impact - The subsidy policy is expected to boost terminal sales for home textile brands, particularly benefiting leading brands with strong brand power and product quality [5]