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纺织服装及黄金珠宝2026年策略报告:品牌端分化加剧,出口制造明年有望呈弱复苏态势-20251216
CMS· 2025-12-16 09:32
Group 1: Brand Segment - High-End Leading, Mass Market Under Pressure - Luxury goods in China have shown sequential improvement in sales, driven by a low base in 2024 and the wealth effect from the capital market, leading to stable purchasing power among high-net-worth individuals [2][13] - High-end jewelry is experiencing rapid growth due to rising gold prices and the integration of traditional Chinese culture into high-end brand craftsmanship, with companies like Lao Pu and Chao Hong Ji achieving significant revenue increases [2][17] - High-end sportswear brands are meeting the demands of affluent consumers for running, outdoor activities, and casual wear, with brands like ON and Amer Sports reporting over 100% and 40% growth in the Greater China region, respectively [2][25] Group 2: Mass Market Pressure - Mass market apparel brands like Hailan and Semir are expected to see low single-digit growth, with discounting not significantly improving [3] - Traditional mass-market jewelry brands are facing revenue declines due to rising gold prices and a decrease in purchasing power among their consumer base, leading to a noticeable downward trend in income [3][61] Group 3: Manufacturing Segment - Weak Recovery Expected - The demand for apparel in the U.S. is showing steady growth, with retail inventory levels at a low point, suggesting a potential for inventory replenishment in 2026 [4][64] - Major OEM manufacturers are expected to see improved order growth and marginal profit recovery in 2026, despite cautious expansion due to previous tariff impacts [4][73] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The trend towards high-end jewelry is solidifying, with industry leaders shifting from channel expansion and product homogeneity to focusing on product differentiation and quality [5] - Recommended brands include Lao Pu for its unique gold craftsmanship, and Chow Tai Fook for its brand and channel upgrades [9] - In the sportswear sector, Li Ning is highlighted for its marketing upgrades and product innovations, with a focus on serving the Chinese Olympic Committee and launching new technologies [9][56]
纺织服饰周专题:部分服饰制造商公布11月营收表现
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-12-14 12:34
Investment Rating - The report recommends "Buy" for Shenzhou International and Huali Group, with respective 2026 PE ratios of 12x and 18x [2][30]. Core Views - The textile and apparel industry is experiencing fluctuations in revenue, with notable declines in some manufacturers' performance due to changing international trade environments and tariff policies [1][13]. - The report anticipates a recovery in orders and shipments for apparel manufacturers in 2026, driven by improved demand and healthy inventory levels [23][28]. - Key brands like Nike are expected to show gradual improvement in their operational performance, which may positively impact their suppliers [23][24]. Summary by Sections Recent Revenue Performance - In November 2025, revenue for Feng Tai Enterprises, Ruo Hong, and Yu Yuan Group decreased by 11.8%, increased by 1.5%, and decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, respectively [1][13]. - Cumulatively from January to November 2025, Feng Tai's revenue declined by 4.9%, while Ruo Hong and Yu Yuan reported increases of 3.8% and 0.9% [1][13]. Industry Outlook - The report indicates that the apparel manufacturing sector is expected to see a recovery in orders in 2026, with a focus on companies with integrated and international supply chains [28][29]. - The report highlights that the competitive landscape is improving, with leading manufacturers likely to gain market share [2][27]. Key Investment Opportunities - Recommended stocks include Shenzhou International and Huali Group, with a focus on companies that are expected to benefit from improved customer trends and operational efficiencies [2][28]. - Other companies to watch include Weixing Co., Kairun Co., and Jingyuan International, which are also positioned well for future growth [2][28]. Brand Performance - The report emphasizes the importance of brand performance, particularly for Nike in the Greater China region, which is expected to show a turnaround [28]. - Other recommended brands include Anta Sports and Li Ning, with respective 2026 PE ratios of 14x and 16x [28].
纺织服装 12 月投资策略:10 月服装社零同比增长 6%,11 月越南中国纺服出口持续承压
Guoxin Securities· 2025-12-13 09:17
Market Overview - The textile and apparel sector in A-shares has underperformed the broader market since December, with textile manufacturing showing better performance than branded apparel, declining by -3.3% and -4.4% respectively [1][13] - The Hong Kong textile and apparel index rose by 2.9% in November but has since turned negative in December [1] Brand Apparel Insights - Retail sales of clothing in October grew by 6.3% year-on-year, with a stable growth rate compared to the previous month, increasing by 1.6 percentage points [2] - E-commerce performance varied significantly between categories from October to November, with outdoor leisure leading, while home textiles and personal care faced declines. Year-on-year growth rates for various categories were: outdoor (+20%), sportswear (0%), leisurewear (+8%), home textiles (-9%), and personal care (-2%) [2] - Notable brands with strong growth included Descente (74%), Lululemon (69%), and Asics (8%) in sportswear; and brands like Atour Planet (43%) and Luolai Home Textile (26%) in home textiles [2] Textile Manufacturing Insights - In November, Vietnam's textile and footwear exports faced a high base effect from the previous year, resulting in a decline of -2.6% and -3.8% respectively. China's textile exports showed a slight recovery at +1.0%, while apparel and footwear exports fell by -10.9% and -17.2% respectively [3] - The macroeconomic environment remains challenging, with fluctuations in cotton prices and a slight increase in wool prices by +4.8% month-on-month and +32.0% year-on-year in November [3] - Taiwanese manufacturers reported improved revenue in November, driven by World Cup-related orders and a return to normalcy in brand ordering rhythms [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the recovery of consumer spending and the rebound in textile manufacturing. It highlights the potential for high-end consumer recovery and the strong outlook for the light luxury outdoor segment [5][6] - Key brands recommended for investment include Anta Sports, Li Ning, and Xtep International, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing trends in high-end consumption and outdoor sports [6] - In textile manufacturing, companies like Shenzhou International and Huayi Group are highlighted as beneficiaries of tariff reductions and Nike's recovery, while New Australia and Weixing Holdings are noted for their potential gains from rising wool prices and improved order visibility [7]
申洲国际(02313) - 有关租赁协议之关连交易
2025-12-08 08:33
香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責 ,對其準確性或完 整性亦不發表任何聲明,並明確表示,概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因依賴該等內 容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 SHENZHOU INTERNATIONAL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (申洲國際集團控股有限公司* ) ( 於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司) (股份代號:2313 ) 有關租賃協議之 關連交易 茲提述本公司日期為二零二二年十二月二十九日之公告,內容有關續訂租賃協議。 上述公告所述協議將於二零二五年十二月三十一日屆滿。 董事會宣佈, 於二零二五年十二月八日(交易時段結束後),申洲針織( 本公司全資 附屬公司 )與申洲置業訂立租賃協議,據此,申洲置業同意向申洲針織出租物業。 租賃協議為期三年,自二零二六年一月一日開始至二零二八年十二月三十一日屆 滿。 申洲置業為本公司之關連人士。因此,根據上市規則第14章,租賃協議項下擬進行 交易構成本公司之關連交易。 根據香港財務報告準則第16號,本集團需確認與租賃協議有關之使用權資產價值, 而根據上市規則,是次交易將被當作本集團收購資產。 由於本集 ...
周专题:PVH集团FY2025Q3营收同比增长2%,中国业务表现优异
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-12-07 08:24
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies such as Shenzhou International and Huali Group, with specific price-to-earnings (PE) ratios projected for 2026 [9][38]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel industry is experiencing a weak recovery in the Chinese consumer market, while the U.S. and European markets show steady growth. The overall industry inventory is considered healthy, with expectations for upstream order growth driven by stable downstream replenishment [31][32]. - The report highlights the strong performance of direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly in China, where DTC revenue growth is driven by e-commerce [18][23]. - Key investment themes include a focus on high-quality stocks in apparel manufacturing, brand apparel with stable growth or reversal logic, and strong alpha candidates in the gold and jewelry sector [21][22][33]. Summary by Sections Weekly Topic - PVH Group reported a 2% year-over-year revenue increase for FY2025Q3, reaching $2.294 billion, with a notable decline in gross margin due to increased tariffs and a challenging promotional environment [1][14]. Regional Performance - Asia-Pacific: FY2025Q3 revenue decreased by 1% year-over-year, but DTC business showed low single-digit growth, particularly in China [18][23]. - EMEA: Revenue grew by 4% year-over-year, but DTC and wholesale businesses faced declines due to a weak consumer environment [23]. - Americas: Revenue increased by 2%, driven by adjustments in the women's product line, although direct sales faced challenges [23]. Investment Themes - **Apparel Manufacturing**: Recommendations include Shenzhou International (PE of 12x) and Huali Group (PE of 18x), with expectations for improved core customer orders in 2026 [21][31]. - **Brand Apparel**: Focus on companies like Tmall and Anta Sports, with PE ratios of 15x and 16x respectively, and a recommendation for Bosideng (PE of 14x) [21][32]. - **Gold and Jewelry**: Companies like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Hong Ki are highlighted for their strong product differentiation and brand strength, with PE ratios of 17x and 21x respectively [22][33]. Recent Reports - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining a long-term perspective in the apparel manufacturing sector, with expectations for revenue growth exceeding 10% CAGR from 2025 to 2026 for Shenzhou International [34][38].
花旗:微降申洲国际目标价至94港元 维持“买入”评级
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-05 03:39
花旗发布研报称,将申洲国际(02313)2025至27年盈利预测下调2%,目标价相应由95港元降至94港元, 维持"买入"评级,并认为股价下跌或反映管理层对销量展望较为保守,反而提供买入机会,因2026财年 预期股息率达4.8%,且未来3年每股盈利年均复合增长率达12%。 该行将今年申洲国际下半年的销量增长预测,由高单位数降至中单位数,主要因第三季销量增长近乎持 平,两大主要品牌仍需时与集团商讨分摊关税。不过,该行观察到10月及11月的交付量已加速增长,以 追赶第三季落后的进度。另外,该行预期毛利率按季扩张的指引维持不变,而且2026财年毛利率超过 28%的目标亦大致不变。 ...
申洲国际再跌超4% 机构下调公司下半年销量增长预测 产量释放有望于明年继续体现
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-05 03:15
但国盛证券(002670)认为,过去行业需求及客户订单存在波动,申洲国际始终坚持长期资产建设、稳 步扩张产能。该行判断2026年伴随着核心客户订单的修复,公司有望步入产能驱动增长、工厂利用率饱 和、订单结构优化带来盈利质量优化的阶段。2024年末公司员工达到10.3万人,同比增长12%;2025H1 末达到11万人,同比增长9%,该行判断过去数年内成衣工厂招聘员工带来的产能提升、产量释放将在 2026年继续体现。 申洲国际(02313)再跌超4%,截至发稿,跌4.12%,报64.05港元,成交4.99亿港元。 花旗发布研报称,将申洲国际2025至27年盈利预测下调2%,目标价相应由95港元降至94港元,维持"买 入"评级,并认为股价下跌或反映管理层对销量展望较为保守,反而提供买入机会,因2026财年预期股 息率达4.8%,且未来3年每股盈利年均复合增长率达12%。该行将今年申洲国际下半年的销量增长预 测,由高单位数降至中单位数,主要因第三季销量增长近乎持平,两大主要品牌仍需时与集团商讨分摊 关税。该行观察到10月及11月的交付量已加速增长,以追赶第三季落后的进度。 ...
港股异动 | 申洲国际(02313)再跌超4% 机构下调公司下半年销量增长预测 产量释放有望于明年继续体现
智通财经网· 2025-12-05 03:15
花旗发布研报称,将申洲国际2025至27年盈利预测下调2%,目标价相应由95港元降至94港元,维持"买 入"评级,并认为股价下跌或反映管理层对销量展望较为保守,反而提供买入机会,因2026财年预期股 息率达4.8%,且未来3年每股盈利年均复合增长率达12%。该行将今年申洲国际下半年的销量增长预 测,由高单位数降至中单位数,主要因第三季销量增长近乎持平,两大主要品牌仍需时与集团商讨分摊 关税。该行观察到10月及11月的交付量已加速增长,以追赶第三季落后的进度。 智通财经APP获悉,申洲国际(02313)再跌超4%,截至发稿,跌4.12%,报64.05港元,成交4.99亿港元。 但国盛证券认为,过去行业需求及客户订单存在波动,申洲国际始终坚持长期资产建设、稳步扩张产 能。该行判断2026年伴随着核心客户订单的修复,公司有望步入产能驱动增长、工厂利用率饱和、订单 结构优化带来盈利质量优化的阶段。2024年末公司员工达到10.3万人,同比增长12%;2025H1末达到11 万人,同比增长9%,该行判断过去数年内成衣工厂招聘员工带来的产能提升、产量释放将在2026年继 续体现。 ...
大行评级丨花旗:微降申洲国际目标价至94港元 维持“买入”评级
Ge Long Hui· 2025-12-05 02:53
花旗将申洲国际2025至27年盈利预测下调2%,目标价相应由95港元降至94港元,维持"买入"评级,并 认为股价下跌或反映管理层对销量展望较为保守,反而提供买入机会,因2026财年预期股息率达 4.8%,且未来3年每股盈利年均复合增长率达12%。 该行将今年申洲国际下半年的销量增长预测,由高单位数降至中单位数,主要因第三季销量增长近乎持 平,两大主要品牌仍需时与集团商讨分摊关税。该行观察到10月及11月的交付量已加速增长,以追赶第 三季落后的进度。 ...
港股消费ETF(159735)跌1.43%,成交额2602.48万元
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-03 12:01
Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Consumption ETF (159735) has experienced significant growth in both share volume and fund size in 2023, despite a recent decline in market performance [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Performance - As of December 2, 2023, the Hong Kong Consumption ETF (159735) has a total share volume of 926 million and a total fund size of 779 million yuan, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 140.06% in share volume and 198.09% in fund size compared to the end of 2022 [1]. - The fund's management fee is set at 0.50% annually, while the custody fee is 0.10% annually [1]. - The fund manager, Li Yixuan, has managed the ETF since its inception on May 25, 2021, with a performance return of -15.87% during the management period [1]. Group 2: Trading Activity - The Hong Kong Consumption ETF (159735) recorded a total trading volume of 1.143 billion yuan over the last 20 trading days, averaging 57.17 million yuan per day [1]. - Year-to-date, the ETF has accumulated a total trading volume of 22.285 billion yuan over 223 trading days, with an average daily trading volume of 99.93 million yuan [1]. Group 3: Top Holdings - The ETF's top holdings include Alibaba-W (19.54%), Tencent Holdings (16.59%), and Pop Mart (7.99%), among others, with their respective market values and share counts detailed [2]. - The fund's significant positions reflect a diversified exposure to major players in the Hong Kong consumer market, indicating a strategic focus on high-growth companies [2].