股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.10.11 ——兴发集团 2024 年三季报预告点评 | --- | |---------------------------------| | | | [table_Authors] 沈唯 ( 分析师 ) | | 0755-23976795 | | shenwei024936@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 S0880523080006 | | --- | |----------------------------| | | | 钱伟伦 ( 分析师 ) | | 021-38038878 | | qianweilun027712@gtjas.com | | S0880523040003 | 本报告导读： 公司三季度业绩环比持续提升，一方面得益于农化基本盘景气修复，一方面特种化 学品板块发力明显。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 维持"增持"评级。三季度公司业绩环比继续提升，主要系磷矿石 景气持稳同时草甘膦行情有所回暖，另外特种化学品板块持续发力。 目前磷矿石景气持续，农化景气修复符合预期，故我们维持 20 ...

Group 1: Scientific Research Advances - A new method for the controlled liquid-phase synthesis of nitrogen-doped amorphous carbon with a doping concentration of up to 9% has been revealed, providing a unique experimental platform for studying the effects of atomic doping on electronic localization phenomena in two-dimensional materials[1] - The research team constructed a spatiotemporal single-cell transcriptome atlas of the cerebellar cortex across species, identifying species-specific Purkinje neuron subtypes and establishing a relationship between transcriptomic spatial heterogeneity and functional connectivity in the cerebellum[1] - A study on the stability of anode materials for alkaline seawater electrolysis achieved 10,000 hours of stable hydrogen production, addressing the lifespan limitations of anodes in this technology, which is crucial for commercialization[2] - The cellulose-based solid-state electrolyte developed exhibits a lithium-ion conductivity of 1.09×10^-3 S cm^-1 and a mechanical strength of 12 MPa, showing compatibility with most commercial cathode materials[2] Group 2: Health and Medicine Innovations - A study revealed that cholesterol enhances the interaction of exosomes with target cell membranes, improving RNA drug delivery efficiency, with exosomes containing 30% cholesterol showing superior performance compared to traditional transfection reagents[9] - Research on Duchenne muscular dystrophy identified key mechanisms of early skeletal muscle pathology, emphasizing the importance of immune response suppression in treatment strategies[9] - A new DNA-encoded chemical library technology allows for the automated synthesis and testing of billions of compounds, significantly advancing drug discovery capabilities[10] - A triple antibody therapy has shown potential for long-term control of HIV in patients, maintaining viral suppression even after stopping antiretroviral therapy[11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive industry, particularly focusing on domestic mid-to-high-end brands [1] Core Insights - Domestic mid-to-high-end automotive brands are accelerating their entry into the market, with an increase in quality supply expected to lead to simultaneous growth in volume and price for both complete vehicles and parts [1] - The domestic market for passenger vehicles priced above 300,000 RMB reached 4.162 million units in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.5%, indicating a continuous upgrade in consumer preferences [1] - There is a notable preference for larger space models (B-class, C-class) within the mid-to-high-end vehicle segment, with brands like Li Auto, Huawei Hongmeng, and others achieving rapid sales growth in this category [1] - German luxury brands still hold a significant market share, particularly in the large space, long wheelbase luxury sedan market, with BMW and Audi's single-vehicle net profits reaching 36,000 RMB and 25,000 RMB respectively in 2023 [1] - The ongoing advancement in smart technology is expected to enhance consumer recognition of domestic brands, with improvements in hardware configurations narrowing the gap with traditional foreign luxury brands [1] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The mid-to-high-end passenger vehicle market in China is substantial, with a clear trend towards larger models and increasing sales of domestic brands [1] Competitive Landscape - German luxury brands maintain a strong presence, but domestic brands are making significant inroads, particularly in the SUV and MPV segments [1] Consumer Trends - Smart technology is becoming a critical factor in consumer purchasing decisions, with domestic brands leveraging advancements in intelligent driving and cockpit systems to improve brand perception [1]

Investment Rating - The report rates the construction engineering industry as "Overweight" with a previous rating of "Overweight" as well [1]. Core Viewpoints - Fiscal policies are expected to enhance cash flow and receivables quality in infrastructure projects, leading to improved performance speed [1][4]. - The report highlights that central state-owned enterprises in infrastructure have low valuations and performance expectations, with potential upside of 12-93% for leading companies [2][5]. - Recommended stocks include those with a price-to-book (PB) ratio less than 1 and a dividend yield greater than 2.25%, particularly focusing on central state-owned enterprises with low performance bases in Q3 2023 [4][10]. Summary by Sections Fiscal Policy Impact - Recent fiscal policies, including the early release of a 100 billion yuan central budget investment plan for 2025, are set to support local governments in accelerating project implementation [3]. - The report notes that the central state-owned enterprises are the primary beneficiaries of these policies, with significant elasticity in their operations and low valuations [3][4]. Company Recommendations - Specific companies recommended include: - China State Construction (PB 0.6, dividend yield 4.3%) - China Railway Construction (PB 0.51, dividend yield 3.7%) - China Communications Construction (PB 0.61, dividend yield 2.9%) [4][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting companies with strong order growth and low PB ratios, particularly those with a solid performance in Q3 2023 [10][23]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that leading companies in the construction sector have historically traded at higher valuations, suggesting potential for revaluation in the current market context [5][12]. - It also highlights the expected acceleration in project approvals and implementations due to improved government fiscal health, which is likely to enhance the overall performance of the construction sector [4][10]. Performance Metrics - The report provides detailed performance metrics for recommended companies, including order growth rates and profit margins, indicating a positive outlook for those with low PB ratios and high dividend yields [4][10][23]. - For instance, China Energy Engineering reported a 14% increase in orders, while China Railway's orders decreased by 15% [10][23]. Conclusion - The report concludes that the construction engineering industry is poised for growth driven by supportive fiscal policies and the potential for revaluation of leading companies, making it an attractive investment opportunity [1][4][10].

股 票 研 究 公 司 更 新 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 ——2024Q3 业绩预告点评 [table_Authors]訾猛(分析师) 021-38676442 zimeng@gtjas.com 登记编号S0880513120002 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | 陈力宇 ( 分析师 ) | | | | | 021-38677618 | | | | | chenliyu@gtjas.com | | | | | S0880522090005 | | | | 本报告导读： 公司"高端性价比"战略引领下，利润改善超预期，全渠道保持持续增长，线下分 销完成首轮铺市，未来增量可期。 投资要点： 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.10.11 利润超预期，奋进正当时 三只松鼠(300783) 食品饮料 [Table_Industry] /必需 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the computer industry, consistent with the previous rating [2][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the imminent release of public data operation guidelines, expected to first impact the meteorology, transportation, social security, and natural resources sectors [4]. - It anticipates that these sectors will become the initial pilot areas for public data resource development and utilization [4]. - The report emphasizes the potential for significant business opportunities for companies involved in the development and operation of public data in these fields [4]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report recommends companies that support the development of public data in meteorology, transportation, social security, and natural resources, specifically naming Guoneng Rixin, Tongxingbao, and Digital Zhengtong as key targets [4]. - Beneficiary companies include Desheng Technology, Jiuyuan Yinhai, ChaoTu Software, Aerospace Hongtu, and Shanda Diwei [4]. Market Context - A press conference held by the National Data Bureau indicated that the release of the "Opinions on Accelerating the Development and Utilization of Public Data Resources" is expected to yield four main effects: significantly expanding public resource data supply, stimulating societal data utilization, increasing effective investment recovery, and promoting data industry development [4]. - The report notes that the management guidelines will effectively address policy bottlenecks and release the value of data elements in the aforementioned sectors [4]. Company Valuation - The report includes a valuation table for recommended stocks, with specific metrics such as closing prices and projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026, along with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [7]. - For instance, Guoneng Rixin (301162.SZ) has a closing price of 39.66 yuan with a 2024E EPS of 1.29 yuan, resulting in a PE of 30.74 [7].

Monetary Policy Insights - The monetary policy introduced on September 24 aims to narrow the gap between the decline rates of real financing rates and bond rates, establishing a market-oriented adjustment mechanism for housing loan rates[3] - Government bonds are positioned as a key link between monetary and asset markets, enhancing their role as a monetary anchor[3] - The central bank's actions include absorbing or injecting liquidity, signaling price changes, and providing low-cost liquidity support to the stock market in emergencies[3] Fiscal Policy and Liquidity Outlook - October is expected to see a liquidity gap of approximately CNY 710 billion due to increased fiscal deposits, as it is a tax month[20] - The government bond issuance pressure in October is projected to decrease by about CNY 700 billion compared to September, with an estimated fiscal shortfall of CNY 2.8 trillion for the first eight months of the year[20] - If CNY 2 trillion in new government bonds are issued, the liquidity gap could increase by an additional CNY 500 billion, potentially leading to a further 25 basis points cut in the reserve requirement ratio[20] Economic Stability Measures - Enhancing exchange rate flexibility is crucial for achieving "currency stability," with the third quarter monetary policy meeting emphasizing this goal[3] - The policy reflects a coordinated effort between monetary and fiscal strategies, with measures to stabilize housing prices and support stock buybacks[3] - The report indicates that the recovery of private sector balance sheets is essential for addressing insufficient demand, with risk assets (stocks) identified as a potential common anchor for monetary and fiscal policies[3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Dongpeng Beverage (605499) is maintained at "Buy" [4][10]. Core Views - The company has exceeded performance expectations, driven by new product launches and channel expansion, leading to an upward revision of EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 to 6.31, 8.20, and 10.48 CNY, representing year-on-year growth of 60.8%, 30.1%, and 27.8% respectively [10]. - The target price has been raised to 249.50 CNY from the previous 206.78 CNY, reflecting a PEG ratio of 1.01X based on comparisons with competitors like Nongfu Spring and Yanjing Beer [10]. - The company expects to achieve revenue of 12.4 to 12.72 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 43.5% to 47.2%, and a net profit of 2.6 to 2.73 billion CNY, up 57% to 65% [10]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 8.505 billion CNY, with projections of 11.263 billion CNY for 2023 and 16.233 billion CNY for 2024, indicating a growth rate of 32.4% and 44.1% respectively [11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 1.441 billion CNY in 2022 to 2.040 billion CNY in 2023 and 3.279 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting growth rates of 41.6% and 60.8% [11]. - The company’s net profit margin is projected to improve to a range of 19.2% to 20.6% in Q3 2024, an increase of 2 to 3.4 percentage points year-on-year [10]. Market Position and Strategy - Dongpeng Beverage is capitalizing on the growing demand for energy drinks and electrolyte water, aligning with consumer trends towards health and wellness [10]. - The company is enhancing its market share through aggressive channel management and product placement strategies, particularly during peak seasons [10]. - The introduction of the "Buli La" product line is expected to become a significant growth driver, appealing to both energy drink consumers and those seeking hydration solutions [10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" for ASML (ASML.US) with a target price of $1100 based on a FY2025 Forward PE of 36x [3][12]. Core Insights - ASML is positioned as a monopolistic manufacturer of high-end lithography machines, benefiting from increased capital expenditure in the semiconductor industry driven by AI demand and process iteration [2][3]. - The company is expected to achieve revenues of €272 billion, €349 billion, and €381 billion for FY2024, FY2025, and FY2026 respectively, with GAAP net profits of €73 billion, €108 billion, and €121 billion for the same periods [3][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - ASML's revenue is projected to be stable in FY2024, with strong growth anticipated in FY2025 due to increased AI demand and semiconductor industry recovery. The company expects to ship 53, 74, and 85 EUV machines in FY2024, FY2025, and FY2026 respectively, with EUV revenue projected at €9.9 billion, €15.6 billion, and €19 billion [8][10]. - The total system sales revenue is expected to be €215 billion, €280 billion, and €299 billion for FY2024, FY2025, and FY2026, reflecting a year-on-year change of -2.2%, +30.6%, and +6.8% [8][10]. 2. Historical and Cyclical Review - The revenue cycle of semiconductor equipment manufacturers is closely tied to process breakthroughs and the evolution of Moore's Law, with ASML being a direct beneficiary [15][16]. - ASML's self-reinforcing mechanism links process breakthroughs with increased capital expenditure from downstream customers, creating a closed loop that enhances its revenue [16][18]. 3. Lithography Demand and Moore's Law - The demand for lithography machines is expected to continue alongside the extension of Moore's Law, with ASML maintaining its leading position through continuous technological advancements [21][30]. - The introduction of High-NA EUV lithography machines is anticipated to significantly enhance chip performance, with ASML receiving numerous orders from major clients [44][47]. 4. Advanced Process Iteration and Expansion - The advanced process requires EUV lithography machines, with the demand for EUV expected to grow significantly as logic chips evolve towards 2nm and below [33][34]. - Major memory manufacturers are also adopting EUV technology, with HBM entering a significant expansion phase, further driving demand for lithography machines [43][41]. 5. Company Overview - ASML's revenue structure is heavily reliant on system sales, with a significant contribution from both logic and memory chips. The company reported system revenue of €219 billion and service revenue of €56 billion in 2023 [62][63]. - The company has a strong customer base, with significant revenue contributions from Taiwan, China, and South Korea, driven by the expansion of advanced and mature processes [62][65].

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an **Overweight** rating for the automotive industry, driven by the strong performance of domestic mid-to-high-end car brands [2][4] Core Views - Domestic mid-to-high-end car brands are gaining momentum, with significant growth in sales and market share, particularly in the SUV and MPV segments [4][11] - The luxury car market in China is substantial, with 30+ RMB models accounting for 18.6% of total passenger car sales in 2023, reaching 4.162 million units, a 23.5% YoY increase [11][12] - German luxury brands still dominate the market, but domestic brands are rapidly catching up, especially in the 30-40 RMB price range, where sales grew by 129.5% in 2023 [16][28] - Smart driving and intelligent cabins are becoming key differentiators for domestic luxury brands, with brands like Huawei, Li Auto, and NIO leading the charge [41][42] Market Size and Growth - The 30+ RMB passenger car market in China reached 4.162 million units in 2023, with a 23.5% YoY growth, driven by strong demand for mid-to-high-end models [11][12] - The 30-40 RMB segment saw the highest growth, with sales increasing by 35.8% to 2.203 million units, while the 40-60 RMB segment grew by 14.3% to 1.456 million units [12] - Domestic brands accounted for 22.3% of the 30+ RMB market in 2023, up from 12.5% in 2022, indicating rapid market penetration [28] Competitive Landscape - German brands (BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Audi) still lead the luxury car market in China, with a combined market share of 55.2% in the 30+ RMB segment [16][17] - Domestic brands like Li Auto, NIO, and Huawei's Harmony Smart Drive are rapidly gaining traction, with Li Auto's L series and NIO's ES6 leading in the SUV segment [20][21] - In the MPV segment, Denza D9 leads with 119,000 units sold in 2023, followed by Toyota Sienna with 77,000 units [22] Profitability and Pricing - Luxury car brands like BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Audi maintain strong profitability, with BMW's net profit per vehicle at 36,000 RMB in 2023, and Mercedes-Benz's EBIT per vehicle at 53,000 RMB [25][26] - Domestic brands like Li Auto and Zeekr are improving profitability, with Li Auto achieving a 22.2% gross margin in 2023, up 2.8 percentage points YoY [32][33] Smart Driving and Intelligent Features - Smart driving and intelligent cabins are becoming key selling points for domestic luxury brands, with brands like Huawei, Li Auto, and NIO leading in innovation [41][42] - Li Auto's AD Max system and Huawei's Harmony Smart Drive are pushing the boundaries of autonomous driving, with plans for nationwide coverage and advanced AI integration [42] Global Luxury Car Market - The global luxury car market is dominated by BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Audi, with combined sales of 6.49 million units in 2023, accounting for 10-12% of the global passenger car market [43][44] - Asia, particularly China, is the largest market for luxury cars, with BMW and Mercedes-Benz each selling over 750,000 units annually in China [45][47] Historical Performance and Market Expansion - BMW's historical performance shows significant growth during market expansion phases, such as its rapid growth in the North American market from 1995-1998 [52][53] - Toyota's success in the luxury car market was driven by differentiated product offerings and targeted marketing, as seen with the Lexus brand [55][56]