股 票 研 究 [table_Authors] 肖群稀(分析师) 张越(分析师) 0755-23976830 0755-23976385 xiaoqunxi027589@gtjas.com zhangyue025639@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880522120001 S0880522090004 行 业 更 新 证 券 研 究 报 告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.10.09 气体价格逐步企稳，下游需求有望回升 其他机械设备 [Table_Industry] [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 ——工业气体行业更新 [Table_Report] 相关报告 其他机械设备《AI 算力需求高增，液冷技术加速 发展》2024.07.25 本报告导读： 大宗气体价格逐步企稳，主要稀有气体价格环比持平；随着国内经济政策发力，下 游需求复苏，气体价格有望回暖，气体厂商有望受益。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 投资建议：工业气体下游以钢铁、化工、机械制造等为主， 具有顺周期属性，有望随下游需求复苏而稳步增长。短期来 看，大宗气体价格受下游需求影响短期承压， ...

Economic Indicators - The U.S. added 254,000 non-farm jobs in September, significantly exceeding the revised August figure of 159,000 and the market expectation of 150,000[3] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, the lowest since June 2024[3] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI remained stable, while the services PMI increased by 3.4%[3] Market Trends - Chinese assets continued to outperform globally, with A-shares leading H-shares, followed by precious metals and the U.S. dollar[3] - The valuation comparison shows Chinese markets > U.S. markets > developed markets > Japanese stocks > Indian stocks, with Hong Kong and A-share valuations still at the lowest percentiles[3] - The U.S. financial conditions index has been rising, indicating improved liquidity, while the LIBOR-OIS spread has slightly decreased[3][13] Interest Rate Expectations - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November have risen to 88.7%, with a 11.3% chance of no change[3][11] - The probability of further rate cuts this year has narrowed significantly, approaching 100%[3][12] - The People's Bank of China lowered the reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points and the 7-day reverse repo rate by 20 basis points in September[12] Commodity Performance - Commodity prices have generally risen, with energy prices leading the gains, followed by rebar steel, agricultural products, and precious metals[3][8] - Recent trends show a broad increase in commodity prices over the past month, particularly in energy and silver[3][8] Credit Risk - Credit risk indicators have risen across major economies, with North American CDS, European ITRAXX, and Japanese ITRAXX all trending upwards[15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the tourism industry, including segments such as dining, hotels, tourist attractions, travel agencies, and chain dining [1][2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the National Day holiday saw visitor numbers exceed expectations, with a year-on-year increase in prices. Long-distance travel has significantly recovered, and traditional scenic spots experienced higher-than-expected visitor flows despite high base comparisons [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policy catalysts in driving cyclical sectors, recommending investments in dining, hotels, and duty-free sectors. It also notes improvements in the competitive landscape for vertical O2O companies and suggests focusing on sustainable earnings in the education sector [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Tourism Sector - National Day travel reached 765 million trips, a 5.9% increase year-on-year compared to 2023 and a 10.2% increase compared to 2019. Total spending during the holiday was 700.82 billion yuan, up 6.3% year-on-year [3]. - The report indicates that traditional scenic spots performed better than expected, with notable increases in visitor numbers for locations like Jiuhua Mountain and Huangshan [3]. Dining Sector - Dining consumption during the National Day holiday increased by 33.4% compared to 2023, with nighttime dining seeing a 44.8% increase. The average spending per customer was 916.1 yuan, recovering to 100.38% of 2023 levels [3]. - Major dining chains like Haidilao reported over 1.9 million customers on October 1, 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of over 5% [3]. Hotel Sector - The hotel industry is expected to benefit from the recovery in travel and increased consumer spending during holidays, with several hotel chains receiving "Overweight" ratings [1][3]. Education Sector - The report identifies a potential bottoming out in the education sector, recommending undervalued stocks with sustainable earnings such as Zhuoyue Education and Thinking Education [3]. Retail Sector - The report notes that the retail sector, particularly in affordable overseas retail, remains highly prosperous, with recommendations for companies like Miniso and China Duty Free Group [3].

股 票 研 究 [细分行业评级 Table_subIndustry] libolun@gtjas.com 计算机 增持 证 券 研 究 报 告 新兴事物在牛市中弹性最大 [Table_Industry] 计算机 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 [table_Authors] 李博伦(分析师) 0755-23976516 登记编号 S0880520020004 本报告导读： 牛市弹性首选前所未有的新事物，近期数据要素，自动驾驶将迎来强催化，看好相 关板块 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 投资建议：牛市中新新事物弹性最大，看好近期将在自动驾驶、数 据要素板块中诞生的新兴事物。推荐标的：通行宝、千方科技、新 点软件、数字政通。受益标的：开勒股份、金溢科技、万集科技、 易华录、太极股份、国新健康。 牛市中弹性最大的往往是新兴事物。我们在过去的报告中提到主题 投资的三大方向，分别是前所未有的新事物、一致认可的大方向、 应对危机的解决办法。这其中，前所未有的新事物代表着一个新兴 行业的崛起，按照生命周期属于行业导入期，参与者体量小，商业 模式尚未完全形成，未来成长空间广阔。我们认 ...

- The report discusses the construction of a capacity cycle analysis framework, focusing on supply-demand dynamics and simplifying influencing factors into three elements: demand, investment, and capacity. The cycle is divided into five stages: shortage, prosperity, surplus, de-capacity, and reversal. This framework applies to both traditional industries and advanced manufacturing, aiming to assess industry prosperity and stock price trends by identifying cycle stages and transition points [2] - Historical analysis highlights how surplus capacity pressure in traditional industries (e.g., cement, steel, chemicals) and advanced manufacturing (e.g., specialized equipment, electric vehicles) has been alleviated. For traditional industries, administrative restrictions on supply and price bottoming signals are key indicators. For advanced manufacturing, demand recovery driven by economic growth or technological innovation serves as the primary catalyst [3] - Current surplus capacity pressure in traditional industries is linked to weak downstream demand, particularly in construction-related sectors. Administrative measures to reduce supply, such as slowing new capacity releases and shutting down existing capacity, are emphasized as critical strategies. Price turning points remain a vital signal for alleviating surplus pressure and stock price recovery [5] - Advanced manufacturing exhibits structural surplus characteristics, with demand acceleration being the key signal for alleviating surplus pressure. Catalysts include new technologies, overseas market expansion, and domestic replacement initiatives. Industries such as semiconductors, engineering machinery, batteries, and automotive are highlighted for investment opportunities based on demand recovery [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aviation industry, consistent with the previous rating [1]. Core Insights - The demand for travel during the 2024 National Day holiday was robust, with air passenger traffic reaching a historical high for the same period, estimated to exceed the passenger load factor of 2019 [2][3]. - The report highlights that short-term fluctuations in oil prices do not alter the long-term value of airlines, as the impact of oil prices on profitability depends on supply and demand dynamics [3]. Summary by Sections National Day Holiday Travel Demand - The 2024 National Day holiday saw significant travel demand, with over 2 billion people moving across regions, a 3.9% increase from 2023 and a 23% increase from 2019 [3]. - Major transportation modes recorded historical highs in passenger flow: railways up 28%, civil aviation up 22%, and highways up 23% compared to 2019 [3]. Airline Performance - Air passenger traffic during the holiday increased by 11% year-on-year and 22% compared to 2019, achieving a new historical high [3]. - The passenger load factor rose approximately 4 percentage points to 86%, surpassing the level of 2019, despite a nearly 10% year-on-year decline in ticket prices [3]. Oil Price Impact - Fuel costs account for nearly 40% of airline expenses, but fluctuations in oil prices do not change the long-term value of airlines [3]. - The report suggests that airlines possess a "downside protection" against falling oil prices, as the recovery of supply and demand in the Chinese aviation market is expected to elevate profitability beyond market expectations [3]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends a contrarian investment approach during the off-peak season, as the long-term value of airlines is becoming more apparent [3]. - It maintains "Overweight" ratings for specific airlines, including Air China, Juneyao Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has prioritized support for underground pipeline construction projects, indicating a significant investment opportunity in the pipeline industry [5]. - The underground pipeline construction is expected to accelerate, with a projected total of 600,000 kilometers of pipeline construction and renovation over the next five years, requiring an investment of 4 trillion yuan [5]. - The report highlights the substantial market potential in urban sewage pipeline construction, with a projected investment scale of over 100 billion yuan, benefiting leading water service companies [5]. Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Highlights - The NDRC's support for urban renewal projects, particularly underground pipeline construction, is expected to enhance the pipeline industry's growth [5]. - The report notes that the current sewage treatment capacity has improved, but the construction and renovation of sewage pipelines remain lagging, creating a significant market opportunity [5]. - The report recommends companies such as Chongqing Water, Xingrong Environment, Zhongshan Public Utilities, and Hongcheng Environment as beneficiaries of the sewage pipeline market [5]. Market Data - As of 2022, the lengths of various urban pipelines in China are as follows: water supply pipelines at 1,103,000 kilometers, drainage pipelines at 913,500 kilometers, natural gas pipelines at 980,400 kilometers, and heating pipelines at 493,400 kilometers [5]. - The report anticipates that the renovation of urban sewage pipelines will require the addition of 80,000 kilometers during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [5].

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 [table_Authors] 蔡雯娟(分析师) 樊夏俐(分析师) 谢丛睿(分析师) 021-38031654 021-38676666 021-38038437 caiwenjuan024354@gtjas.com fanxiali@gtjas.com xiecongrui@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880521050002 S0880523090006 S0880523090004 行 业 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_Report] 相关报告 本报告导读： 投资要点： 家用电器业《政策组合拳催化，超跌板块有望迎 来反弹》2024.09.25 家用电器业《高频数据好转，短期有望持续回 暖》2024.09.23 家用电器业《政策带动短期数据好转，龙头优先 受益》2024.09.18 家用电器业《贸易摩擦催化产能转移，多元布局 公司占优》2024.09.11 家用电器业《外销贡献增长动能，多数企业注重 收入》2024.09.09 兼顾考虑以旧换新政策与地产链改 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Postal Savings Bank of China (601658) is "Buy" with a target price of 6.31 CNY, up from the previous target of 5.79 CNY [7][5]. Core Views - The adjustment of the savings agency fee rate is expected to significantly enhance the company's profits. The net profit growth forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 0.49%, 3.12%, and 4.87%, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.82, 0.85, and 0.89 CNY [5][4]. - The comprehensive fee rate for savings agencies is projected to decrease by 151 billion CNY to 1,006 billion CNY, leading to a reduction in the cost-to-income ratio by 4.4 percentage points to 60.4% [5][4]. - The differentiated adjustment of fee rates is beneficial for the healthy development of agency savings business, as 69% of effective personal customers and 80% of personal deposits come from agency financial services [5][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecasts - The financial summary indicates that operating income is expected to grow from 342,507 million CNY in 2023 to 375,072 million CNY in 2026, with a net profit of 86,270 million CNY in 2023 projected to reach 93,742 million CNY by 2026 [14][16]. - The core tier one capital adequacy ratio is reported at 11.19% [9]. Market Data - The total market capitalization of Postal Savings Bank is 521,587 million CNY, with a current price of 5.26 CNY [8][7]. - The stock has traded within a range of 4.24 to 5.26 CNY over the past 52 weeks [8]. Business Operations - The bank's total assets amount to 15,726,631 million CNY, with total loans at 8,148,893 million CNY and total deposits at 13,955,963 million CNY [9][16]. - The bank's strategy includes a passive adjustment mechanism for fee rates based on the average net interest margin of the four major banks, which has been shortened from ten years to five years to enhance effectiveness [5][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company and raises the target price to 121.30 CNY, up from the previous 101.55 CNY [4][2]. Core Insights - The company benefits from high demand from downstream customers, leading to increased volume and profit. The implementation of stock incentives reflects confidence in future growth [1][2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024-2026 are projected at 6.77 CNY, 8.09 CNY, and 10.01 CNY respectively, indicating a strong growth trajectory that is expected to exceed industry averages [1][2]. - The stock incentive plan targets high-quality growth, with performance metrics set for revenue or profit growth of no less than 50%/80%/120% from 2023 levels over the next three years [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 1,775 million CNY in 2023 to 3,803 million CNY by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.6% [2][9]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 472 million CNY in 2023 to 1,041 million CNY in 2026, with a CAGR of 23.8% [2][9]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to remain strong, with estimates of 41.1% in 2024 and 37.6% in 2026 [2][9]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is expanding its product lines and enhancing brand visibility, particularly with the Stanley brand, which has shown significant sales growth on platforms like Amazon [1][2]. - The establishment of a production base in Vietnam is aimed at optimizing supply chain capabilities and strengthening relationships with key clients [1][2]. - The company is actively penetrating emerging markets such as South America and Australia, while also expanding its offline retail presence [1][2].