国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.11.15 拓展数字文化产业，BIM 与装配式设计领先 华阳国际(002949) 建筑工程业 [Table_Industry] /工业 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------------------|---------------------------| | | | | | | [table_Authors] 韩其成 ( 分析师 ) | 郭浩然 ( 分析师 ) | | | 021-38676162 | 010-83939793 | | | hanqicheng8@gtjas.com | guohaoran025968@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880516030004 | S0880524020002 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------| ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an **Overweight** rating to the company with a target price of **57.00 CNY**, compared to the current price of **42.04 CNY** [4] Core Views - The company has transitioned from a single e-commerce operation model to a full-chain and full-ecosystem e-commerce service provider, with a strong foothold in the apparel sector and expansion into new consumer categories like Jellycat [2] - The company's brand incubation business is expected to drive a second growth curve, with significant potential for future growth [2] - Revenue and net profit have shown strong recovery, with revenue growing at a CAGR of 25.9% from 2018 to 2023, and net profit growing at a CAGR of 3.9% over the same period [9] - The company's gross and net profit margins have improved, with gross margin reaching 51.1% and net margin at 8.5% in the first three quarters of 2024 [9] Business Model and Growth Drivers - The company has evolved from a pure e-commerce operator to a comprehensive e-commerce service provider, covering apparel, health, pet food, and personal care categories [9] - The company's equity structure is concentrated, with the founder and co-founder holding approximately 38.8% of the shares [9] - The proportion of revenue from e-commerce operations has decreased from 76.9% in 2017 to 51.4% in H1 2024, while brand incubation revenue has increased from 16.7% to 38.5% over the same period [9] - The company has established long-term partnerships with major brands like Skechers and ECCO, solidifying its position in the apparel sector [9] Financial Performance - Revenue grew from **306 million CNY** in 2018 to **967 million CNY** in 2023, with a CAGR of 25.9% [9] - Net profit grew from **43 million CNY** in 2018 to **52 million CNY** in 2023, with a CAGR of 3.9% [9] - In the first three quarters of 2024, revenue and net profit grew by **23.5%** and **170%**, respectively [9] - The company's gross margin improved to **51.1%** in the first three quarters of 2024, while the net margin reached **8.5%** [9] Industry Outlook - The domestic e-commerce industry is transitioning from a focus on quantity to quality, with the brand e-commerce service market expected to grow from **407.7 billion CNY** in 2023 to **586.2 billion CNY** in 2028, at a CAGR of 7.5% [9] - The rise of new consumer brands, such as Jellycat, is expected to drive growth, with Jellycat's domestic sales expected to double in 2024 [9] - The company has added Jellycat as an online operation partner in H1 2024, which is expected to catalyze the launch of more new consumer projects [9] Competitive Advantages - The company has a strong brand presence, particularly in the apparel sector, with long-term partnerships with major brands like Skechers and ECCO [9] - The company has built a robust data system and developed proprietary software, enabling it to provide high-quality, full-chain services to clients [9] - The company has established a comprehensive service ecosystem, including cross-platform integration and deep business exploration, which is expected to drive its second growth curve [9] Valuation and Forecast - The report forecasts EPS for 2024-2026 to be **1.63**, **2.17**, and **2.70 CNY**, with growth rates of **189%**, **33%**, and **25%**, respectively [9] - The company's target price is set at **57.00 CNY**, based on a PE valuation of **42x** for 2024 [26] - The PS valuation method suggests a target price of **47.87 CNY**, with a PS multiple of **3.5x** for 2024 [29]

Investment Rating - Maintain Overweight rating with a target price of 23.8 yuan, corresponding to a 2024 PE of 19x [2] - The target price remains unchanged despite a downward revision in EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 to 1.26/1.40/1.54 yuan from the previous 1.92/2.15/2.39 yuan [2] Core Views - The company's Q1-Q3 2024 steel structure production increased by 0.58% YoY to 3.25 million tons, with Q3 production up 1.42% YoY to 1.14 million tons [2] - New contract signings for Q1-Q3 2024 decreased by 4.34% YoY to 21.9 billion yuan, with Q3 signings down 3.74% YoY to 7.57 billion yuan [2] - Revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 declined by 6.37% YoY to 15.887 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders dropping 26.29% YoY to 655 million yuan [2] - The company is expected to reach a production capacity of 5.2 million tons by the end of 2024, with a focus on improving intelligent manufacturing to reduce costs [2] Industry Outlook - According to the "14th Five-Year Plan" for the steel structure industry, China's steel structure usage is expected to reach 140 million tons by 2025 and 200 million tons by 2035, accounting for 15% and 25% of crude steel production, respectively [2] - The National People's Congress approved a 6 trillion yuan debt limit to replace local government implicit debt, with 2 trillion yuan allocated annually from 2024 to 2026, which is expected to benefit the industry [2] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024E is projected at 21.927 billion yuan, a 6.8% decline YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to drop 26.3% YoY to 869 million yuan [3] - EPS for 2024E is forecasted at 1.26 yuan, down from 1.71 yuan in 2023A [3] - ROE for 2024E is expected to be 8.8%, down from 12.8% in 2023A [3] Production and Orders - Steel structure production for Q1-Q3 2024 increased by 0.58% YoY to 3.25 million tons, with Q3 production up 1.42% YoY to 1.14 million tons [2] - New contract signings for Q1-Q3 2024 decreased by 4.34% YoY to 21.9 billion yuan, with Q3 signings down 3.74% YoY to 7.57 billion yuan [2] Valuation and Peers - The company's 2024E PE is 13.10x, compared to peers like Jinggong Steel Structure (11.3x) and Hangxiao Steel Structure (26.9x) [15] - The company's 2024E EPS is 1.26 yuan, higher than peers such as Jinggong Steel Structure (0.27 yuan) and Hangxiao Steel Structure (0.11 yuan) [15]

2024年9月，新发权益产品环比大增，居民增配权益产品。1）截至2024年9月，全市场公募基金总份额增量为-3151.58亿份，环比增 长-1.06%，其中权益型基金总份额增量为352.05亿份，环比0.56%，债券型基金总份额增量为269亿份，环比0.46%。货币型基金份额增量 为-3589.18亿份，环比-2.68%。权益类新发基金276.53亿份，环比164.06%，债券类新发基金566.96亿份，环比44.3%。2）2024年9月居 民私募基金配置规模维持稳定，环比-0.05%，新发私募基金规模环比小幅度下降。3）2024年9月，权益类私募资管规模环比5.77%，固收类私募 资管规模环比-2.99%。权益类私募资管新发规模环比16.46%，固收类私募资管新发规模环比-33.91%。4）2024年9月，中国上市保险公司保费 收入合计2489.44亿元，同比9.11%，同比较上月-20.61%。 利率下行空间打开，居民预期收益率下行；市场流动性改善，居民风险偏好略有提升。1）9月19日，美联储公布最新利率决议，将基准利率下调50 个基点，开启降息周期。9月24日，金融政策组合拳出台，中国人民银行决定自20 ...

11月13日，财政部、税务总局、住建部发布《关于促进房地产市场平稳健康发展有关税收政策的公告》，税务总局发布《关于降低土地增值税预征率下限的公 告》，就契税、增值税、土地增值税的征收做出调整，政策力度基本符合预期。继10月财政部新闻发布会"正在研究与取消普宅标准相关的税收政策"、 11月8日 人大新闻发布会 "支持房地产市场发展的相关税收政策将于近期推出"后，此次终迎税收新政落地，主要内容包括：1）加大住房交易环节契税优惠力度，将现行享 受1%低税率优惠的面积标准由90平方米提高到140平方米，2）统一降低各地区土地增值税预征率下限0.5个百分点，3）明确与取消普通住宅和非普通住宅标准 相衔接的增值税、土地增值税优惠政策。 新政以购房成本、交易成本的有效降低来引导需求的进一步释放，对地产销售有提振作用，且除当前可见的税收优惠外，后续部分城市普宅和非普宅标准的取消将 进一步扩大政策效力。契税的调整对应的是购房成本的直接调降，从调整涉及的范围看，对改善型需求购房者和一线城市二套房购房者的利好最大。同时，关于增 值税调整，明确一线城市在取消普通住宅和非普通住宅标准后，销售已购买2年及以上的住房免征增值税，目前来看， ...

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 证 券 研 究 报 告 评级： ——地产 10 月观察 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------------------|----------------------|---------------------------| | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 谢皓宇 ( 分析师 ) | 白淑媛 ( 分析师 ) | 黄可意 ( 研究助理 ) | | | 010-83939826 | 021-38675923 | 010-83939815 | | | xiehaoyu@gtjas.com | baishuyuan@gtjas.com | huangkeyi028691@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880518010002 | S0880518010004 | S0880123070129 | 本报告导读： 10 月是地产新政后的典型月份，整体呈现出销售量价修复 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aviation industry, with a positive outlook on the sector's recovery and profitability [4][9] Core Views - The Chinese aviation industry has long-term growth potential, with a clear trend of supply-demand recovery and an expected rise in profit margins [2][5] - The industry's profitability in Q3 2024 exceeded expectations, with A-share airlines' profits surpassing Q3 2019 levels [4][5] - The report recommends a counter-cyclical investment strategy during the off-season, citing low market expectations and potential benefits from falling oil prices [5][9] Industry Overview - The Chinese aviation industry is one of the few sectors with long-term growth potential, driven by significant demand growth and constraints on airspace and time slots [8][10] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has seen gradual marketization of ticket pricing and a significant slowdown in fleet growth, which will support profit margin expansion [10][15] - The industry's recovery trend is expected to continue, with international flight increases helping to absorb domestic capacity [10][21] Profitability Analysis - A-share airlines' Q3 2024 revenue grew by 5% YoY and 11% compared to Q3 2019, reflecting sustained growth in aviation demand [5][29] - Fuel costs are expected to improve significantly from Q4 2024, with international oil prices declining in Q3 2024 [5][24] - Non-fuel costs are also improving faster than expected, driven by the recovery of international flights and economies of scale [5][60] Airline Performance - Major airlines (Air China, China Southern, China Eastern) saw a 18% YoY decline in Q3 2024 net profit but still grew nearly 10% compared to Q3 2019 [5][68] - Smaller airlines (Spring Airlines, Juneyao Airlines) saw a 30% YoY decline in Q3 2024 net profit but grew 33% compared to Q3 2019, in line with expectations [5][68] - Major airlines' cost improvements are accelerating, with better-than-expected performance in seat revenue and cost management [68][72] Revenue Management Strategy - Airlines shifted from a "price-first" strategy in 2023 to a "load factor-first" strategy in 2024, leading to higher load factors but lower ticket prices [5][72] - The industry's load factor in Q3 2024 increased by 4.5 percentage points YoY, with September's load factor even exceeding 2019 levels [5][72] - The report anticipates further positive changes in revenue management strategies, which could accelerate profit recovery [88][89] Fleet and Capacity - A-share airlines' fleet size reached 3,297 aircraft by September 2024, up 2% YoY and nearly 8% compared to September 2019 [38][40] - Narrow-body aircraft utilization has surpassed 2019 levels, while wide-body aircraft utilization is still recovering [38][62] - The recovery of international flights is expected to continue driving the utilization of wide-body aircraft, improving cost efficiency [84][85]

股 票 研 究 公 司 更 新 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 ——新希望 10 月出栏月报点评 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------------------|--------------------------| | | | | | | [table_Authors] 王艳君 ( 分析师 ) | 林逸丹 ( 分析师 ) | | | 021-38674633 | 021-38038436 | | | wangyanjun022998@gtjas.com | linyidan030085@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520100002 | S0880524090001 | 本报告导读： 养殖效率改善，成本下降有路径可循。猪料周期复苏和出海先发优势，饲料业务稳 健发展。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 维持"增持"评级，下调目标价至 11.97 元。下调此前对于公司 2024~2025 年生猪出栏量预测，预计 2024~2025 年 EPS 分别为 0.22/0.64(前值 0.85/1.37 元)， ...

Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating with an upward revision of the target price to 23.06 RMB (previously 19.50 RMB) [2][3][5] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance aligns with market expectations, driven by growth in the power grid and marine sectors [3] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 42.399 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 20.79%, with net profit attributable to shareholders growing by 28.32% to 2.314 billion RMB [3] - Marine business is expected to contribute significantly, with a year-on-year growth exceeding 40%, while the power grid business is projected to maintain steady growth of 15%-20% [3] - The company has a robust order backlog, including approximately 20 billion RMB in energy interconnection projects and 6 billion RMB in marine communication orders [3] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024E is forecasted at 50.663 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4% [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024E is projected at 2.738 billion RMB, with an EPS of 1.11 RMB [4] - ROE is expected to improve from 6.7% in 2022A to 10.6% in 2026E [4] Business Performance - Q3 2024 revenue reached 15.8 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 32.38%, with net profit attributable to shareholders growing by 27.25% to 705 million RMB [3] - The marine communication sector has seen significant revenue recognition in 2024, contributing to the strong performance [3] Order Backlog - The company holds orders worth approximately 20 billion RMB in energy interconnection projects, including submarine cables and marine engineering [3] - Marine communication orders stand at around 6 billion RMB, with additional orders exceeding 300 million USD for the PEACE transoceanic cable system [3] Valuation and Market Data - The company's current market capitalization is 43.76 billion RMB, with a total of 2.467 billion shares outstanding [6] - The stock's 52-week price range is between 10.64 RMB and 19.17 RMB [6] Industry Comparison - The company's 2024E PE ratio is 17.03x, lower than the industry average of 24.43x [10] - Compared to peers like Oriental Cable and Zhongtian Technology, the company shows competitive valuation metrics [10]

股 票 研 究 公 司 更 新 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 拟投建青岛电子大宗气体项目，加速布局电子气体 杭氧股份(002430) [Table_Industry] 资本货物/工业 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------------------|--------------------------| | | | ——杭氧股份事件点评 | | | [table_Authors] 肖群稀 ( 分析师 ) | 张越 ( 分析师 ) | | | 0755-23976830 | 0755-23976385 | | | xiaoqunxi027589@gtjas.com | zhangyue025639@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880522120001 | S0880522090004 | | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|----------|-------| | | | | | | | | | [Table_Invest] | | | | 评级 ...