国泰君安晨报 20250320 [周津宇 Table_Authors] 电话：021-38674924 邮箱：zhoujinyu011178@gtjas.com 登记编号：S0880516080007 期指引好、Scaling 没有放缓、B 卡需求大，且 AI Agent 和推理的百倍长期算力需求推演，都比 较正面的，仍然看好国内外算力链条，推荐中芯国际，华丰科技。 4、机械，人形机器人万亿蓝海，规模量产后有望复制 3C"零部件-模组-整机"代工模式，其供 应链与 3C 重叠度较高，3C 供应链企业凭借快速迭代创新与规模化制造能力有望切入人形机器 人塑造第二成长曲线，推荐标的博众精工、兆威机电和奥普特。 5、汽车，汽车吴晓飞团队认为，小米发布 2024 年业绩公告，汽车业务 Q4 净亏损环比显著减 少。小米亦宣布上调 2025 年交付量目标，销量有望加速增长，小米汽车产业链有望持续受益， 推荐标的无锡振华、模塑科技、拓普集团、沪光股份。 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 A 股策略专题：《南下的势头：由防守向进攻》2025-03-19 方奕（分析师）021-38031658、黄维驰（分 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The company's performance in Q4 2024 met expectations, with revenue of HKD 11.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6%, and a net profit of HKD 1.3 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 21% [9] - The decline in net profit is attributed to a 1.3 percentage point drop in gross margin due to changes in product mix and a 3.1 percentage point increase in sales expense ratio due to increased marketing investments in proprietary brands [9] - The company is focusing on long-term strategies, continuous R&D investments, and strengthening its technological moat while binding with international leading clients [9] Financial Summary - Revenue and profit figures for the company from 2021 to 2027 are as follows: - Revenue: HKD 13,755 million (2021), HKD 12,157 million (2022), HKD 11,177 million (2023), HKD 11,799 million (2024), projected HKD 12,423.9 million (2025E), HKD 14,311 million (2026E), HKD 16,699 million (2027E) [7] - Net Profit: HKD 5,287 million (2021), HKD 2,510 million (2022), HKD 1,645 million (2023), HKD 1,303 million (2024), projected HKD 1,300 million (2025E), HKD 1,653 million (2026E), HKD 2,178 million (2027E) [7] - The company’s PE ratio is projected to be 58.0 (2024E), 46.0 (2025E), and 34.7 (2026E) [7] Business Segments - The company's OEM business showed positive growth in H2 2024, with revenue increasing by 11% year-on-year, particularly in the U.S. market, which saw a 5% increase [9] - The proprietary brand segment continued to grow, with an 11% year-on-year increase in revenue in H2 2024, driven by product line expansion and enhanced brand recognition in the U.S. and U.K. markets [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for WuXi AppTec (603259) with a target price of 93.84 CNY, up from the previous forecast of 71.82 CNY [1][11]. Core Views - The report highlights strong growth in backlog orders and a significant increase in peptide business, indicating a positive long-term growth outlook for the company [1][11]. - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 39.24 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a decrease of 2.7% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is projected at 9.45 billion CNY, down 1.6% [2][11]. - The report notes that the fourth quarter of 2024 is expected to show a revenue of 11.54 billion CNY, representing a 6.9% increase, with an adjusted net profit of 3.234 billion CNY, up 20.3% [11]. Financial Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2023A: Revenue 40.34 billion CNY, Net Profit 9.607 billion CNY - 2024A: Revenue 39.241 billion CNY, Net Profit 9.450 billion CNY - 2025E: Revenue 42.602 billion CNY, Net Profit 11.778 billion CNY - 2026E: Revenue 47.327 billion CNY, Net Profit 12.846 billion CNY - 2027E: Revenue 52.801 billion CNY, Net Profit 14.749 billion CNY [2][13]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS) Forecasts: - 2023A: 3.33 CNY - 2024A: 3.27 CNY - 2025E: 4.08 CNY - 2026E: 4.45 CNY - 2027E: 5.11 CNY [2][13]. - Return on Equity (ROE) Forecasts: - 2023A: 17.4% - 2024A: 16.1% - 2025E: 17.5% - 2026E: 16.8% - 2027E: 17.0% [2][13]. Market Data - The stock has a 52-week price range of 36.87 to 69.68 CNY, with a total market capitalization of 201.235 billion CNY [3][11]. - The company has a net asset value per share of 20.30 CNY and a price-to-book ratio of 3.4 [4][11]. Business Performance - The report indicates that the chemical business is expected to grow by 11.2% in 2024, excluding the impact of COVID-19 commercialization orders, with an adjusted gross margin of 46.4% [11]. - The peptide business (TIDES) is projected to achieve a revenue of 5.8 billion CNY in 2024, marking a 70.1% increase, with backlog orders growing by 103.9% [11].

| | 国泰君安证券 | | --- | --- | | | GUOTAI JUNAN SECURITIES | 目 录 | | 每日报告回放（2025-03-18 09:00——2025-03-19 15:00） | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | |  | A 股策略专题：《南下的势头：由防守向进攻》2025-03-19 | 2 | |  | A 股策略观察：《新房销售增速放缓，乘用车销售景气延续》2025-03-18 | 3 | |  | 行业事件快评：汽车《油电同智全球同行，智能化全面加速》2025-03-19 | 3 | |  | 行业事件快评：海外科技《GTC2025，迈向 Agentic AI 新时代》2025-03-19 | 4 | |  | 行业日报/周报/双周报/月报：石油《石化行业数据跟踪 20250317》2025-03-19 | 5 | |  | 行业更新：公用事业《用电需求放缓，风电增速加快》2025-03-19 | 5 | |  | 行业事件快评：机器人《Figure 发布人形机器人工厂 BotQ，商业化量产提速》2025-03-18 | 6 | | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][29] Core Insights - NVIDIA held its annual GTC conference from March 17 to 21, 2025, focusing on the release of Blackwell Ultra and Vera Rubin chips, as well as advancements in Physical AI and Agentic AI [2][7] - The Blackwell Ultra chip is set to achieve a 1.5x performance increase and is expected to enter mass production in the second half of 2025, creating 50 times the revenue opportunities for data centers compared to the previous Hopper architecture [7][10] - The next-generation Vera Rubin chip will begin shipping in the second half of 2026, featuring a memory capacity 4.2 times that of the Grace CPU and a performance increase of 2 times [12][13] - NVIDIA announced a long-term technology roadmap for its AI chips, outlining a progression from Blackwell (2024) to Feynman (2028) [13] Summary by Sections Blackwell Ultra and Rubin Chip Release - The Blackwell Ultra chip will be equipped with up to 288GB of HBM3e memory and enhanced FP4 performance, achieving a 1.5x increase in FP4 inference performance [7][10] - The Blackwell Ultra NVL72 cabinet will include 72 Blackwell Ultra GPUs and 36 Grace CPUs, with a total memory of 20TB and a bandwidth of 576TB/s [10][11] Vera Rubin Chip - The Vera Rubin platform will feature a CPU with 88 cores and a memory bandwidth 2.4 times that of Grace, with overall performance expected to be 3.3 times greater than the previous generation [12][13] - The Vera Rubin Ultra chip is projected to be released in 2027, with performance capabilities reaching 900 times that of the Hopper architecture [12][13] NVIDIA Photonics and CPO System Update - NVIDIA introduced three new switch products under the "NVIDIA Photonics" platform, significantly enhancing performance and deployment efficiency compared to traditional switches [18] - The Quantum 3450-LD switch features 144 ports with a bandwidth of 115TB/s, while the Spectrum SN6800 switch has 512 ports with a bandwidth of 409.6TB/s [18] NVIDIA Dynamo Release - NVIDIA Dynamo is an open-source software designed to enhance inference performance across data centers, claiming to double the performance of standard models and increase token generation by over 30 times for specialized models [19][21]

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 36.29 CNY [2][11]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in automotive thermal management and a core supplier of components for robotics, continuously expanding its business boundaries and achieving sustained high growth [3][11]. - The report highlights the significant growth potential driven by the electric vehicle market, which is reshaping the supply chain and increasing the value of thermal management components [11][16]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 24.56 billion CNY in 2023 to 34.80 billion CNY in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.7% [8][18]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 2.92 billion CNY in 2023 to 4.31 billion CNY in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of about 14.6% [8][18]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 0.78 CNY in 2023 to 1.16 CNY in 2026 [8][18]. Business Overview - The company has a strong foothold in the refrigeration market, with leading global market shares in key components such as electronic expansion valves and four-way valves [11][25]. - The automotive parts segment is benefiting from the electrification of vehicles, with the value of thermal management components in electric vehicles being approximately three times higher than that in traditional vehicles [11][50]. - The company is also expanding into emerging markets such as energy storage and robotics, which are expected to provide new growth avenues [11][19]. Market Position - The company serves a diverse range of high-profile clients in both the refrigeration and automotive sectors, including major brands like Panasonic, Mitsubishi, and BMW [11][35]. - The report emphasizes the company's commitment to innovation and quality, which has established it as a trusted partner in the global thermal management industry [11][25].

拟发行可转债，加速整装能力构建 志邦家居(603801) —志邦家居公司更新报告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.03.16 林纸产品 [Table_Industry] /原材料 | | —志邦家居公司更新报告 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [table_Authors] 刘佳昆(分析师) | 毛宇翔(分析师) | [Table_Target] | 上次评级: | 增持 | | 021-38038184 | 021-38038672 | 目标价格： | 上次预测: | 15.61 17.85 | | liujiakun029641@gtjas.com | maoyuxiang029547@gtjas.com | | | | | 登记编号 S0880524040004 | S0880524080013 | Table_CurPrice] [当前价格： | | 12.51 | 本报告导读： 公司发行可转债打造智能生产基地，有望提高柔性生产能力、加速南方市场布局。 投资要点： | [Table_Fina ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yili Co., Ltd. is "Accumulate" with a target price of 35.00 RMB, up from the previous forecast of 33.53 RMB [2][13]. Core Views - The dairy industry is expected to reach a turning point in 2025, benefiting leading companies like Yili to increase market share. The company is projected to experience healthy growth in liquid milk, with other business segments contributing to revenue growth. Profit elasticity is anticipated to be released following a reduction in impairments, and policy-driven improvements in liquid milk market conditions are expected to act as a catalyst [3][13]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2022A: 123,171 million RMB - 2023A: 126,179 million RMB - 2024E: 120,414 million RMB - 2025E: 124,520 million RMB - 2026E: 132,564 million RMB - Revenue growth rates: 11.4% (2022A), 2.4% (2023A), -4.6% (2024E), 3.4% (2025E), 6.5% (2026E) [4]. - **Net Profit (Attributable to Parent)**: - 2022A: 9,431 million RMB - 2023A: 10,429 million RMB - 2024E: 11,826 million RMB - 2025E: 11,099 million RMB - 2026E: 12,499 million RMB - Net profit growth rates: 8.3% (2022A), 10.6% (2023A), 13.4% (2024E), -6.1% (2025E), 12.6% (2026E) [4]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2022A: 1.48 RMB - 2023A: 1.64 RMB - 2024E: 1.86 RMB - 2025E: 1.74 RMB - 2026E: 1.96 RMB [4]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2022A: 18.8% - 2023A: 19.5% - 2024E: 21.0% - 2025E: 19.0% - 2026E: 20.6% [4]. Market Data - **Current Price**: 29.75 RMB - **Market Capitalization**: 189,386 million RMB - **52-week Price Range**: 21.37 - 30.23 RMB [5]. Industry Outlook - The dairy industry is expected to face challenges in 2024 due to oversupply, weak demand, and high inventory levels, leading to a decline in fresh milk prices. However, the report suggests that the worst phase for the industry has passed, with expectations for stabilization in milk prices by Q3 2025, which could improve the competitive landscape [13]. - Yili is expected to achieve healthy growth in liquid milk and other segments, with infant formula benefiting from a slight rebound in birth rates and adult formula focusing on functional product development [13]. - The report emphasizes that cost reductions and lower impairment losses are expected to enhance profit elasticity, with a maintained target net profit margin of 9% for 2025 [13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Wuliangye (000858.SZ) is "Accumulate" with a target price of 171.54 CNY, maintaining the previous rating of "Accumulate" [2][14]. Core Views - The report highlights that Wuliangye has been implementing a series of marketing reforms since the 1218 conference, leading to improved management efficiency and execution. The company aims for steady growth through these changes [3][14]. - The marketing transformation is expected to yield results gradually, supporting stable growth. The company has focused on enhancing manufacturer relationships and addressing volume and price issues [14]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections show a steady increase from 73,969 million CNY in 2022 to 99,462 million CNY by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.7% for 2022-2023 and 5.6% for 2025-2026 [5][15]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 26,690 million CNY in 2022 to 33,599 million CNY in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of 14.2% for 2022-2023 and 3.9% for 2025-2026 [5][15]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 6.88 CNY in 2022 to 8.66 CNY in 2026 [5][15]. Market Data - The current price of Wuliangye shares is 132.69 CNY, with a 52-week price range of 107.69 CNY to 164.05 CNY [6][14]. - The total market capitalization is approximately 515,051 million CNY [6]. Balance Sheet Summary - Shareholder equity stands at 136,362 million CNY, with a net asset value per share of 35.13 CNY [7][15]. - The company has a negative net debt ratio of -89.68%, indicating a strong financial position [7][15]. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of price stability through inventory control measures, which have led to a rise in wholesale prices. The company has implemented strategies to enhance channel confidence and manage supply effectively [14]. - The establishment of specialized companies by distributors is expected to strengthen direct sales channels and improve resource allocation, thereby enhancing overall operational efficiency [14].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5][29]. Core Views - The company is deeply engaged in the cardiovascular field, with a stable cash flow from its generic drug business and multiple core innovative drugs recently approved, leading to an expected increase in the proportion of innovative revenue [3][29]. - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 40.1 billion, 44.2 billion, and 54.3 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +19%, +10%, and +23% [14][21]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 6.4 billion, 6.9 billion, and 8.31 billion yuan for the same years, with year-on-year growth rates of +10%, +8%, and +20% [14][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company focuses on drug development in the chronic disease field, particularly cardiovascular diseases, with core products like Xinlitai, S086, and Ennadustat expected to contribute significantly to cash flow [21][29]. - The innovative drug revenue share is anticipated to increase as the company accelerates its transformation [21][29]. 2. Focus on Chronic Disease Field - The company has a comprehensive layout in the cardiovascular field, with a gradual clearing of the impact from centralized procurement, leading to stable cash flow from generic drugs [29][36]. - The innovative product pipeline is progressing steadily, with several new products expected to be launched soon [29][36]. 3. Commercial Potential of S086 and JK07 - The company maintains good growth with its core product Xinlitai, while S086 is expected to be a significant innovative product in the ARNI category, with a market potential exceeding 35 billion yuan [29][36]. - JK07, as a long-acting heart failure treatment, shows promising clinical data and is expected to read out complete Phase II data by Q4 2026 [29][36]. 4. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2022 was 3.48 billion yuan, with a net profit of 637 million yuan, and is projected to grow significantly in the coming years [14][21]. - The company has a total market capitalization of 33.266 billion yuan and a current price of 29.84 yuan, with a target price set at 35.33 yuan [5][6]. 5. Valuation Methods - The report employs both absolute and relative valuation methods, concluding a reasonable valuation of 35.33 yuan per share based on discounted cash flow (DCF) and comparable company analysis [23][27][29].