| | | 目 录 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 市 场 研 究 每 日 报 告 回 放 证 券 研 究 报 告 每日报告回放 |  | 行业日报/周报/双周报/月报：有色金属《情绪助燃现货，钴价升势延续》2025-03-15 | 39 | | --- | --- | --- | |  | 行业日报/周报/双周报/月报：基础化工《重点化工品价格每日跟踪数据库》2025-03-15 | 40 | |  | 行业日报/周报/双周报/月报：基础化工《重点化工品价格每日跟踪数据库》2025-03-15 | 41 | |  | 模型助力端侧 落地》 行业日报/周报/双周报/月报：海外科技《晶圆代工格局或生变，轻量级 Gemma3 AI | | | | 2025-03-15 | 41 | |  | 行业日报/周报/双周报/月报：基础化工《重点化工品价格每日跟踪数据库》2025-03-15 | 42 | |  | 行业事件快评：纺织服装业《生育政策加码，受益标的估值有望修复》2025-03-15 | 42 | |  | 行业更新：煤炭《下行风险释放，4 月有望进入上升通道》2025-03-14 | 43 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious approach towards investment, suggesting a neutral stance on the industry performance relative to the benchmark index [15]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's March FOMC meeting maintained interest rates, signaling a shift in policy focus from inflation to employment, which is interpreted as a dovish signal by the market [1][4]. - The Fed plans to slow down its balance sheet reduction starting in April, decreasing monthly Treasury redemptions from $250 billion to $50 billion, while keeping MBS redemptions unchanged [4][5]. - The Fed's economic growth forecast for Q4 2025 has been downgraded from 2.1% to 1.7%, while the unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.3% to 4.4% [4][6]. - Inflation expectations have been revised upward, with the PCE inflation forecast for Q4 2025 increased from 2.5% to 2.7% and core PCE from 2.5% to 2.8% [4][6]. - The market anticipates a higher likelihood of rate cuts, with futures indicating expectations for three rate cuts this year, despite the Fed's guidance suggesting only two [4][9]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Policy Changes - The Fed's recent policy shift emphasizes employment over inflation, reflecting a more cautious approach to monetary policy [1][4]. - The removal of language indicating a balance of risks between employment and inflation suggests a heightened focus on employment risks [4]. Economic Forecast Adjustments - The Fed has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 while raising inflation expectations, indicating concerns about potential stagflation [4][6]. - The adjustments in forecasts highlight the Fed's ongoing challenges in balancing economic growth and inflation control [4]. Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcements, there was a notable increase in both short-term stock and bond markets, reflecting investor optimism about the dovish signals [4][5]. - The market's reaction underscores the sensitivity of investors to changes in Fed policy and economic outlook [4].

固收新发放缓，中长期资金入市持续推进 投资银行业与经纪业 [Table_Industry] ——2025 年 1 月财富管理业务月报 | [table_Authors] 刘欣琦(分析师) | 王思玥(研究助理) | 吴浩东(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | 021-38676647 | 021-38031024 | 010-83939780 | | liuxinqi@gtjas.com | wangsiyue028676@gtjas.com | wuhaodong029780@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 S0880515050001 | S0880123070151 | S0880524070001 | 本报告导读： 2025 年 1 月，居民增配存款及理财，新发产品规模大幅下滑。产品收益率下行，同 时利率下行至低位。固收产品新发放缓。 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 [Table_Report] 相关报告 投资银行业与经纪业《支持科技创新和新质生产 力发展是长期主线》2025.03.16 投资银行业 ...

股票研究/[Table_Date] 2025.03.20 新股精要—国内有色行业工程设计领先企 业中国瑞林 [table 泰禾股份（ _NewStock] 301665.SZ）发行 4500 万股 泰鸿万立（603210.SH）发行 8510 万股 中国瑞林（603257.SH）是国内有色行业工程设计领先企业，有望受益于行业产能出 清，积极拓展装备集成业务前景广阔。2023 年公司实现营收/归母净利润 28.66/1.48 亿元。截至 2025 年 2 月 28 日，可比公司对应 2023/2024/2025 年平均 PE 分别为 26.14/37.23/34.44 倍。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 | 新股上市逐步常态化，申购收益环比提升 | | --- | | 2025.03.16 | | 科技企业 IPO 支持力度再强化，当周新股上市恢 | | 复 2025.03.11 | | 新股精要—国内领先的半导体第三方检测分析实 | | 验室胜科纳米 2025.03.10 | | 新股精要—国内主要的汽车座椅锁供应商之一浙 | | 江华远 2025.03.09 | | 新股精要—华南地区 ...

AI 赋能多品牌共建，海外提供持续增长空间 海尔智家(600690) ——海尔 2025 生态大会发布点评 | | ——海尔 | 2025 | 生态大会发布点评 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [table_Authors] 蔡雯娟(分析师) | | 谢丛睿(分析师) | 李汉颖(分析师) | [Table_Target] | 上次评级: | 增持 | | 021-38031654 | | 021-38038437 | 010-83939833 | 目标价格： | | 36.54 | | caiwenjuan024354@gtjas.com xiecongrui@gtjas.com | | | lihanying026725@gtjas.com | | 上次预测: | 36.54 | | 登记编号 S0880521050002 | | S0880523090004 | S0880524110001 | Table_CurPrice] [当前价格： | | 28.14 | 本报告导读： 公司举 ...

产能快速扩张，把握印度发展机遇 塔塔钢铁(500470.BO) ——塔塔钢铁（500470.BO）更新报告 | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 李鹏飞(分析师) | 魏雨迪(分析师) | 王宏玉(分析师) | [当前价格 Table_CurPrice] (印度卢比)： | 158.60 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 010-83939783 | 021-38674763 | 021-38038343 | | | | lipengfei@gtjas.com | weiyudi@gtjas.com | wanghongyu@gtjas.com | [Table_Market] | | | 登记编号 S0880519080003 | S0880520010002 | S0880523060005 | | | 本报告导读： 公司作为印度最大民营钢企，未来将持续扩张本土产能，以把握印度经济快速发展 机遇。未来中长期来看，我们认为印度经济增长仍有较强支撑，公司将充分受益。 投资要点： 风险提示：公司产能扩张不及预期，印度经济增速下降。 [Table_Rep ...

风险提示：需求断崖式下滑、供给侧调控放松。 -23% -5% 13% 31% 49% 67% 2024/3 2024/4 2024/5 2024/6 2024/7 2024/8 2024/9 2024/10 2024/11 2024/12 2025/1 2025/2 2025/3 52周内股价走势图 华润建材科技 恒生指数 [Table_Report] 相关报告 | [table_Authors] 鲍雁辛(分析师) | 花健祎(分析师) | 巫恺洋(研究助理) | [当前价格 Table_CurPrice] (港元)： | 1.85 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0755-23976830 | 0755-23976858 | 0755-23976666 | | | | baoyanxin@gtjas.com | huajianyi@gtjas.com | wukaiyang028675@gtjas.com | [Table_Market] | | | 登记编号 S0880513070005 | S0880521010001 | S0880123070145 | 交易数 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.03.20 利润符合预期，分红政策稳健 中国平安(601318) [Table_Industry] 保险/金融 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 上次评级: | 增持 | | [Table_Target] 目标价格： | | 67.26 | | | 上次预测: | 67.26 | | Table_CurPrice] [当前价格： | | 54.07 | 本报告导读： 公司 24 年净利润同比 47.8%，OPAT 同比 9.1%，符合预期；分红政策延续稳健。 个银渠道共同推动 NBV 稳健增长，产险 COR 改善，投资收益率显著提振。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 913,789 | 1,028,925 | 1,051,215 | 1,114,283 | 1,191,983 | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the robotics industry, consistent with the previous rating [1]. Core Insights - The NVIDIA GTC 2025 conference highlighted significant advancements in robotics, including the release of the GROOT N1 open-source model, which greatly enhances training efficiency and accelerates the mass production of humanoid robots [8]. - The Blackwell architecture shows a remarkable performance leap, achieving up to 900 times improvement in certain scenarios compared to the previous Hopper architecture, enabling real-time processing of multi-dimensional data streams for robots [8]. - NVIDIA is building a collaborative ecosystem for robotics, partnering with 14 humanoid robot companies globally, which is expected to standardize and scale production in the robotics industry [8]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Hengli Hydraulic, Zhaowei Machinery, Best, Landai Technology, Shuanghuan Transmission, Top Group, and Sanhua Intelligent Control, with beneficiaries including Changying Precision, Mingzhi Electric, Obsidian Light, and Zhongdali De [8][11]. Technological Advancements - The GROOT N1 model utilizes a dual-system architecture for efficient training in virtual environments, akin to an "Android system" for robotics, lowering development barriers and fostering a global developer community [8]. - The collaboration with Google DeepMind and Disney Research on the Newton physics engine significantly boosts training efficiency through high-precision simulations [8]. Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes the potential for physical AI to empower various types of robots across industries, with NVIDIA's partnerships enhancing the commercial viability of entertainment and industrial robots [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for China Resources Beer [1][11]. Core Views - The company's performance met expectations, with operational data for January and February exceeding forecasts. The management emphasizes entering the "Three Precision" era, aiming for quality improvement and efficiency enhancement, which is expected to lead to sustained profit margin improvements. The current stock price corresponds to a PE of 16X for 2025 [3][11]. Financial Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 38.635 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.76%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.739 billion yuan, down 8.03% year-on-year. EBITDA increased by 2.9% [11]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 5.190 billion yuan, 5.483 billion yuan, and 5.814 billion yuan, respectively [11]. - The company plans to increase its dividend payout, with a projected dividend of 0.387 yuan per share for 2024, resulting in a payout ratio of 52.1% [11]. Operational Performance - The company reported a beer sales volume of 10.874 million kiloliters in 2024, a decrease of 2.5% year-on-year, while the unit price increased by 1.5% to 3,355 yuan per kiloliter. The gross profit margin improved by 0.9 percentage points to 41.1% [11]. - The management has set a short-term sales target of 1 million kiloliters for Heineken and aims to double this figure in the second five-year plan starting from 2024 [11].