宏观研究 / 2025.03.17 平稳开局后,关注政策落地与外部风险 -2025年1-2月经济数据点评 本报告导读: 2025年1-2月经济数据整体平稳开局,1-2月月度 GDP 拟合结果为5.3%,消费和投 资均有改善的积极信号。下一阶段将进入两会部署的各项扩内需政策的验证期,二 李度经济内外都面临更大的不确定性,可能小幅走弱但预计不会明显失速。后续终 端服务价格将是判断居民部门预期是否改善的重要标准。 投资要点: 资增速回升的主导因素是土地购置费的回落和竣工回暖,延续了 12月以来土地购置对地产投资的扰动,地产市场的回暖仍需谨慎 判断;广义基建增速提升,延续2024年四季度以来中央主导的水 利投资增速高,而地方主导的交运、公共设施低的特征,表明甚建 投资增量仍主要由中央财政支出支撑;设备购置投资增速延续 12 月的回升趋势,增量两新资金的落地使用将持续支撑投资。 信贷弱并非降息的充分条件 2025.03.16 通胀降温或为暂时,仍需警惕"滞胀交易" 2025.03.13 春节错位并非通胀回落的主因 2025.03.09 关税并非出口回落主因 2025.03.08 "五个统筹"下的七大亮点 2025.03 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 30.80 CNY per share, up from the previous forecast of 28.61 CNY [2][15]. Core Views - The report highlights that active trading in the fourth quarter has driven the company's performance growth, with a continued optimistic outlook for the company's earnings due to high market trading volumes and the integration of AI capabilities to enhance competitiveness [3][15]. Financial Summary - For 2023, the company reported a revenue of 11,081 million CNY, which is expected to increase to 11,604 million CNY in 2024, reflecting a growth of 4.7%. By 2025, revenue is projected to reach 13,743 million CNY, marking an 18.4% increase [6][16]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 8,193 million CNY, anticipated to rise to 9,610 million CNY in 2024, representing a 17.3% growth. By 2025, net profit is expected to reach 12,213 million CNY, a 27.1% increase [6][16]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to grow from 0.52 CNY in 2023 to 0.61 CNY in 2024, and further to 0.77 CNY in 2025 [6][16]. Market Data - The company's total market capitalization is reported at 385,641 million CNY, with a current share price of 24.43 CNY [7]. - The stock has traded within a range of 9.96 CNY to 30.00 CNY over the past 52 weeks [7]. Investment Drivers - The report identifies active trading in the capital markets and a sustained demand for wealth management among residents as key catalysts for growth [5][15]. - The company’s commission income is expected to increase by 23.07% to 61.13 million CNY in 2024, contributing significantly to revenue growth [15]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the active trading environment will continue to support the company's performance, with daily average stock trading volumes reaching 1.56 trillion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 80% [15]. - The integration of the "Miaoxiang" financial AI model is expected to enhance the company's competitive edge and open up new growth opportunities [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 23.06, while the current price is 16.90 [1][13]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leader in marine communication, breaking the oligopoly in the industry. The government has included "deep-sea technology" in its development plans, indicating a growing focus on marine economy and technology [2][19]. - The company has a comprehensive product capability across the entire industry chain, which may be undervalued by the market. The marine communication and observation capabilities are expected to benefit from future policy developments [2][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Marine Economy and Technology - The government report emphasizes the development of the marine economy and the inclusion of "deep-sea technology" in its new industrial policies, highlighting the increasing attention on marine technology [19]. - The company has rapidly enhanced its marine communication deployment, which is crucial for global connectivity, with over 95% of data transmission occurring via marine communication systems [20][21]. 2. Marine Communication Business - The company has established itself as a top-tier integrator in the marine communication sector, having begun self-research on submarine cables in 2009 and integrating downstream operations [48]. - The company has successfully completed the PEACE submarine cable project, which connects Asia, Africa, and Europe, and has begun commercial operations, providing high-quality communication networks [53]. 3. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 47.62 billion in 2023 to 59.22 billion in 2026, with net profit expected to increase from 2.15 billion to 3.73 billion during the same period [12]. - The company has a strong order backlog in marine communication, exceeding 6 billion, indicating robust future revenue potential [34]. 4. Market Position - The company’s subsidiary, Huahai Communication, is ranked among the top four global players in providing submarine cable network solutions, effectively breaking the overseas oligopoly [13][28]. - The company has a significant market share in the domestic marine communication sector, having installed seven submarine systems over the past four years, second only to NEC [32]. 5. Future Outlook - The report anticipates substantial growth in the marine observation sector, driven by government policies and the company’s capabilities in providing comprehensive marine communication solutions [44][45]. - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing investment in marine observation networks, with a projected total investment of approximately 533 billion for comprehensive coverage along China's coastline [44].

策 略 研 究 生育补贴加速落地，内需与科技轮动前行 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) ---主题风向标 3 月第 3 期 本报告导读： 热点主题仍呈现轮动特征，顺周期方向在当下具备更小交易阻力，看好政策催化密 集的内需消费和涨价周期品。推荐：人口战略/AI 智能体/自主可控/并购重组。 投资要点： 主题三：自主可控。政府工作报告指出，推进高水平科技自立自强， 强化关键核心技术攻关和前沿性、颠覆性技术研发。国家创业投资 引导基金设立在即，引导金融资本投早、投小、投长期、投硬科技， 有望带动地方资金、社会资本近 1 万亿元，将聚焦人工智能、量子 科技、氢能储能等前沿领域。推荐：1、受益政企端 AI 资本开支提 升拉动的服务器电源/液冷等领域国产化；2、受益自主化水平提升 和关键技术突破的先进半导体、军工装备和前沿新材料。 主题四：并购重组。上交所提出完善适应科技型企业特点的再融资、 并购重组、股权激励、股份减持等配套制度。发改委主任郑栅洁指 出，完善并购重组、份额转让等政策，鼓励发展并购基金，畅通创 业投资退出渠道，实现技术链、产业链、供应链的市场化重构。并 购重组有望推动资本市场行业结构升级，引 ...

需关注 2 月社融的两面：数据本身和政策导向 [Table_Authors] 唐元懋(分析师) 利率策略周报 本报告导读： 2 月社融数据显示实体融资需求仍有待提振，但央行货币政策表态相对谨慎，这在 短期中可能导致 3 月债市持续承压，但二季度"择机降准降息"落地可期，引导债 市新一轮下行行情。 投资要点： 债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.03.16 | | 0755-23976753 | | --- | --- | | | tangyuanmao026130@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | | | 孙越(研究助理) | | | 021-38031033 | | | sunyue028687@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880123070142 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 | 再论网格策略：加仓节奏和止损线设置 | | --- | | 2025.03.10 | | 降息从不确定到谨慎，3-4 月降准更可期待 | | 2025.03.10 | | 一季度末，配置力量可能偏好止盈大于支撑 | | 2025.03.09 | ...

| [table_Authors] 蔡雯娟(分析师) | 曲世强(研究助理) | 樊夏俐(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | 021-38031654 | 021-38031025 | 021-38676666 | | caiwenjuan024354@gtjas.com qushiqiang028674@gtjas.com fanxiali@gtjas.com | | | | 登记编号 S0880521050002 | S0880123070132 | S0880523090006 | 各地积极发布育儿补贴细则，政策超出预期 [Table_Industry] 家用电器业 ——家电行业 2025W11 周报 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 投资要点： 家用电器业《平台费率正优化，小家电利润率有 望改善》2025.03.12 家用电器业《3000 亿特别国债支持以旧换新，楼 市回稳奠基》2025.03.09 家用电器业《楼市健康发展奠基，国补拉动内销 稳增》2025.03.06 家用电器业《厨电告别成长股模式，转型价值股 新征程》2025.03.04 家用电器 ...

[Table_Market] 交易数据 | 52 周内股价区间（元） | 22.41-28.81 | | --- | --- | | 总市值（百万元） | 91,883 | | 总股本/流通A股（百万股） | 3,465/3,464 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万股） | 0/0 | [Table_Balance] 资产负债表摘要(LF) | 股东权益（百万元） | 19,934 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 5.75 | | 市净率（现价） | 4.6 | | 净负债率 | 9.14% | | | | ——双汇发展更新报告 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [table_Authors] 訾猛(分析师) | 陈力宇(分析师) | 李美仪(分析师) | [Table_Target] | 上次评级: | 增持 | | 021-38676442 | 021-38677618 | 021-38038667 | 目标价格： | | 31.70 | | zimeng@gtjas.co ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the hydrogen industry or specific companies within it. Core Insights - The report highlights significant developments in the hydrogen sector, including government policies and corporate activities aimed at advancing hydrogen technology and infrastructure [11][14][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Policy - The National Energy Administration has outlined key focus areas for energy industry standards by 2025, including hydrogen production, storage, transportation, and fuel cells [11]. - Beijing Daxing District is positioning itself as a core hub for hydrogen industry collaboration within the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, aiming to attract global hydrogen innovation enterprises [11]. - The European Union has approved national aid plans for Austria and Lithuania to promote local green hydrogen production, with a total funding of €400 million [11]. 2. Industry Dynamics - Shanghai Hydrogen Technology has established operations in Hefei, focusing on third-generation anion exchange membrane water electrolysis technology [14]. - Fudan University has made advancements in proton exchange membrane electrolysis for green hydrogen production, publishing significant research findings [14]. - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) has launched an expanded hydrogen fuel cell supply center in Guangzhou, capable of producing 15 tons of hydrogen daily [14]. - A new "Liquid Hydrogen Technology Alliance" has been formed in China, involving over 20 organizations to promote liquid hydrogen technology [14]. 3. Investment and Financing Events - No domestic investment or financing events were reported [20]. - No foreign investment or financing events were reported [20]. 4. Industry Conference Preview - The Fourth China International Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Industry Exhibition is scheduled for March 26-28, 2025, focusing on promoting new energy development [21].

核能周见 | 能量奇点 21.7 特斯拉经天 产业研究中心 产业政策及动态 | ર્ | 陈磊(分析师) | | --- | --- | | S | 021-38038037 | | ಡಿ | chenlei022459@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880522060001 | | ર્ | 王浩(分析师) | | 8 | 0755-23976068 | | ம் | wanghao013539@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880513090004 | 安装系统通过专家组验收,系统研制水平及运行能力达到国际先进水平。 (中国核电网) | ર | 鲍雁辛(分析师) | | --- | --- | | 8 | 0755-23976830 | | E | baoyanxin@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880513070005 | 往期回顾 【数字经济周报】全球首款通用型 AI Agent 产品 Manus 发布 2025.03.10 【智能车产业跟踪】东风本田 S7上市,一汽奔腾 悦意 03 开启预售 2025.03.10 混合动力助力支线物流无人机商业化加速 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 13.20, up from the previous forecast of 12.20 [1][13]. Core Views - The company is actively promoting brand upgrades and channel optimization, awaiting business stabilization and recovery [2]. - The report highlights a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with revenue expected to be 39.41 billion and net profit at 2.2 billion, reflecting a decrease of 13.8% and 33.9% respectively compared to the previous year [13]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023A: 4,570 million - 2024A: 3,941 million - 2025E: 4,336 million - 2026E: 4,723 million - 2027E: 5,102 million - Revenue growth rates: -13.8% in 2024, followed by 10.0% in 2025 [4][14]. - **Net Profit (Attributable to Parent)**: - 2023A: 333 million - 2024A: 220 million - 2025E: 243 million - 2026E: 265 million - 2027E: 286 million - Net profit growth rates: -33.9% in 2024, followed by 10.5% in 2025 [4][14]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: 0.82 - 2024A: 0.54 - 2025E: 0.60 - 2026E: 0.65 - 2027E: 0.71 [4][14]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2023A: 10.0% - 2024A: 6.5% - 2025E: 7.0% - 2026E: 7.5% - 2027E: 7.9% [4][14]. Market Data - **Current Price**: 11.03 - **52-week Price Range**: 8.61 - 11.53 - **Market Capitalization**: 4,476 million - **Total Shares**: 406 million, with 365 million in circulation [5][14]. Valuation Overview - The company is valued at a PE of 22 times for 2025, leading to a reasonable valuation of 13.20 [15][17].