国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.11.14 Q3 经营短期波动，Q4 有望边际改善 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 ——新秀丽 2024Q3 业绩点评 新秀丽(1910) [Table_Industry] 纺织服装业 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------------------|------------------------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 刘佳昆 ( 分析师 ) | 赵博 ( 分析师 ) | | | | | | 021-38038184 | 010-83939831 | | | | | | liujiakun029641@gtjas.com | zhaobo026729@gtjas.com | | | ...

股 票 研 究 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.11.14 行 业 事 件 快 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 ——对房地产市场税收政策调整的点评 评级： | --- | |--------| | | | 房地产 | | 增持 | | 增持 | 决心彰显，税收政策如期落地 [Table_Invest] | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------------------|---------------------------|-------|-------|----------------------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 谢皓宇 ( 分析师 ) | 研究助理 ) | | | 白淑媛 ( 分析师 ) | | | | | 010-83939826 | | | | 021-38675923 | | | | | xiehaoyu@gtjas.com | huangkeyi028691@gt ...

节假日政策落地，符合预期。修改后节假日安排符合预期，法定假日明显延长，本地消费时间增加，且利用年假 形成超长假期可能性增加，利好本地消费：超市、百货以及餐饮，以及利好出境游旅行社，国内长线游也有望受 益。 事件：国务院近日决定对《全国年节及纪念日放假办法》作如下修改：1）法定节假日增加两天，分别为除夕和5 月2日。2）可合理安排统一放假调休，结合落实带薪年休假等制度，实际形成较长假期。法定节假日假期前后连 续工作一般不超过6天。 法定假日延长，本地消费时间增加。 24年与25年假期安排对比： 2024年放假安排：元旦3天+春节8天+清明3天+劳动节5天+端午节3天+中秋节3天+国庆节7天；法定节假日 天数：11天；可连成小长假天数：32天（单独休1天的不计算）。 2025年放假安排：元旦1天+春节8天+清明3天+劳动节5天+端午3天+国庆/中秋8天；法定节假日天数：13 天；可连成小长假天数：27天。 ①法定休假天数增加两天，更利好本地消费。②根据最新假日安排，2025年实际可连成小长假的天数为27天， 2024年为32天，主要差异来自元旦不调休和国庆中秋重合。③增加的春节和五一实际可连成假期天数与24年一 ...

Investment Rating - Recommended: Focus on retail types with high matching efficiency, channel brand recognition, and the ability to aggregate orders efficiently to achieve SKU scale effects [1] Core Views - The retail industry is evolving towards a model where demand creation and fulfillment are key, with a focus on matching efficiency and SKU scale effects [1] - The Chinese retail market is highly competitive, with a focus on capturing consumer wallet share and leveraging public supply chains and fulfillment systems [2] - The success of retail models in China will depend on the ability to adapt to local market conditions and maintain a long-term operational focus [3] Industry Analysis Retail Models and Efficiency - Retail models can be categorized into demand creation and demand fulfillment types, with the former focusing on matching efficiency and the latter on order aggregation and SKU scale effects [1] - The evolution of retail models is moving from single-store to single-customer unit economics, with a focus on reducing complexity to achieve growth [1] Competitive Landscape in China - The Chinese retail market is characterized by intense competition for consumer wallet share, with a focus on category dominance and scene-based fulfillment [2] - Online platforms are dominating in category share, while offline category killers are emerging, leading to a trend towards scale and low-price competition [2] Localization and Long-term Focus - The success of retail models in China will depend on the ability to adapt to local market conditions and maintain a long-term operational focus [3] - Traditional supermarkets face challenges due to complex interests and high operational costs, while internet companies struggle with unclear positioning and strategy [3] Future Trends - The future of retail in China will likely see the emergence of various discount retail formats, with different categories and target audiences, similar to Costco [3] - The combination of successful retail elements and adaptation to local conditions will be key to the success of future retail models in China [3]

推荐半导体自主可控板块。持续推荐半导体制造龙头；光刻机领域相关标的；持续推荐半导体设备企业。 先进制程代工或将收紧，重点关注半导体自主可控。近期，根据集微网，台积电可能将暂停向中国大陆AI/GPU客户供 应所有7纳米（nm）及更先进工艺的芯片，主要包括AI/GPU相关芯片。特朗普上台后，向台积电施压趋势或将愈加明 朗，先进制程在外代工可能面临压力，提高半导体自主可控能力、打造国产生产链愈加重要。中芯国际作为中国大陆 技术最先进、规模最大的专业晶圆代工企业，拥有稀缺先进制程产线，如果科技摩擦升级、供应链制裁加剧，预计国 内AI/GPU公司的芯片代工将由中芯国际承接，且供需紧俏下具备价格上涨弹性，公司或将直接受益。 美国众议院问询五大设备厂，或影响国内半导体制造设备供应。据11月8日美国众议院公告，美国众议院中美战略竞 争特别委员会主席约翰·莫勒纳尔和自身成员拉贾·克里希纳莫蒂致信半导体制造设备行业前五大设备厂，KLA、应材、 Lam、东京电子、ASML，讨论其对中国大陆业务销售情况，包括相关收入、客户名字、设备类型及数量，尤其对实 体清单客户及先进制程设备提出详细问询。目前前五大设备厂占全球半导体设备市占率约6 ...

两部门联合发文完善医保预付金制度。11月，医保局和财政厅联合发布《关于做好医保基金预付工作的通知》，支持 有条件的地区进一步完善预付金管理办法，符合条件的医疗机构于每年1月自愿申请预付金，预付规模在1个月左右。 预付金制度原则上按照统筹地区医保统筹基金累计结余和医保基金运行风险等级作为拨付预付金的条件和标准，在保 障基金安全的前提下尽力而为、量力而行。目前我国医保统筹基金整体运行平稳，2024年1-7月统筹基金收入15755 亿元（+4.0%），统筹支出13829亿元（+14.9%），截止7月新增累计结余1926亿元。因居民医保收支时序性不 同，多为年底及年初集中缴费，按月支出，单月结余呈现年底年初为正/年中为负的规律性波动。 预付金制度此前已有尝试，部分地区已推动落实。此前国家医保局及部分省份已有关于预付金制度的探索与试点。4 月，医保局新闻发布会上提出向符合条件的医疗机构提供1-3个月的医保结算预付金，减轻其运行压力。7月，医保局 发文，加快推进年度基金清算工作，确保次年6月底前全面完成清算，鼓励通过基金预付缓解医疗机构资金压力。1 月，湖北医保局发文优化基金预付及结算管理机制，截至10月中旬，累计预付医 ...

投资建议：若国内7nm及更新进工艺芯片进口受限，国内高端手机及高性能运算相关的发展势必受损。7nm及更 新进工艺芯片的突破口主要集中在：①前道制程设备加速升级迭代与国产化进程；②先进封装发展提速。上述举措 均有望加速半导体设备国产替代进程，当前国产化率较低环节（量检测、离子注入、涂胶显影、刻蚀、沉积等） 受益将更为明显。 事件：根据集微网消息，台积电拟从11月11日起暂停向中国大陆AI/GPU客户供应7nm及更先进工艺芯片。 半导体设备国产替代有望加速，瓶颈环节设备有望充分受益。目前，全球具备7nm制程逻辑芯片批产能力的晶圆 厂主要为台积电、三星、英特尔。7nm及以下制程芯片主要应用于高端手机、AI/GPU等领域，当前上述制程国产 芯片受制于设备和工艺等瓶颈尚无法满足国内需求。若以台积电为主的非美系晶圆厂受美国芯片出口管制政策影 响，收紧7nm及以下制程芯片对华出口，则国内7nm及以下制程芯片将存在加大供需缺口。当前，国内主流晶圆 厂7nm及以下制程芯片的扩产仍受限于无法配齐整套前道设备。故若上述举措落地，将进一步加速国产半导体设 备的迭代升级及国产替代进程。我们认为目前国产化率较低的光刻机、量检测设备、离子 ...

股 票 研 究 行 业 事 件 快 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.11.14 ——2024 年 9 月财富管理业务月报 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------------------|---------------------------|---------------------------|-------| | | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 刘欣琦 ( 分析师 ) | 王思玥 ( 研究助理 ) | 吴浩东 ( 分析师 | ) | | | 021-38676647 | 021-38031024 | 010-83939780 | | | | liuxinqi@gtjas.com | wangsiyue028676@gtjas.com | wuhaodong029780@gtjas.com | | | 登记编号 | S0880515050001 | S0880123070151 | S0880524070001 | | 本报告导读： 20 ...

Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price raised to 23.06 CNY (+2.62) [4][6] Core Views - The company's cost optimization in 2024Q1-Q3 has significantly improved Q3 gross margin, and with continued cost control, the performance is expected to exceed expectations [1] - The company's revenue in 2024Q1-Q3 was 333 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 0.40%, with a net profit of -0.38 million CNY, slightly worse than the previous year [4] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 139 million CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 17.24%, and a net profit of 12 million CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 8.00% [4] - The gross margin in Q3 2024 was 53.96%, a significant increase of 18.17 percentage points year-on-year, and the expense ratio for the first three quarters was 58.68%, a decrease of 4.90 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The company has made strategic deployments in Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) since 2021, with products and solutions already in pilot applications in several banks, poised for rapid growth once PQC standards are released [4] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022A, 2023A, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected to be 660, 561, 631, 738, and 868 million CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.9%, -14.9%, 12.4%, 17.0%, and 17.6% [3] - Net profit (attributable to parent company) for 2022A, 2023A, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected to be -9, 37, 63, 96, and 124 million CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -110.9%, 524.3%, 69.3%, 52.7%, and 29.4% [3] - EPS for 2022A, 2023A, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected to be -0.04, 0.16, 0.27, 0.40, and 0.52 CNY, respectively [3] - ROE for 2022A, 2023A, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected to be -0.6%, 2.6%, 4.3%, 6.3%, and 7.8%, respectively [3] - P/E ratios for 2023A, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are 94.76, 55.96, 36.66, and 28.33, respectively [3] Business Segments - Revenue from general security products is expected to grow by 10%, 17%, and 17% in 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, respectively [15] - Revenue from PKI infrastructure products is expected to grow by 12%, 15%, and 18% in 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, respectively [15] - Revenue from PKI security application products is expected to grow by 15%, 18%, and 18% in 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, respectively [15] Valuation - The company is valued at 57.0 times 2025E P/E, with a reasonable market value of 5.444 billion CNY [16] - Comparable companies in the cybersecurity industry have an average 2025E P/E of 55.30, with the company receiving a premium due to its leading position in the PKI sector [16][18]

& UFF 略研究 / 2024.11.13 | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------|------------------------------| | | | | | 地产销售增长延续，乘用车零售超出预期 | | 方奥(分析师) | | | | 021-38031658 | | ——行业景气度观察系列 11月第 2 期 | | fangyi020833@gtjas.com | | | | S0880520120005 | | 本报告导读: | | | | 新房、二手房销售面积同比增幅扩大,乘用车零售超出市场预期;建筑施工需求仍 | | 张逸飞(分析师) | | 编弱,工业金属价格上涨;物流货运景气改善,高港船舶载重同比圆升。 | | 021-38038662 | | 投资要点: | | zhangyifei()26726(@gtjas.com | | | 登记编号 | S0880524080008 | 股 策 略 ○ 地产销售增长延续,乘用 ...