——工业金属周报 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.08.03 海外衰退预期骤升，价格淡季承压 [Table_Industry] 有色金属 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------|-------------------------| | | 于嘉懿(分析师) | 兰洋(研究助理) | | | 021-38038404 | 021-38031027 | | | yujiayi@gtjas.com | lanyang028684@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880522080001 | S0880123070158 | 本报告导读： 美国 7 月 ISM 制造业继续降温，且 7 月失业率意外走高并触发"萨姆法则"，市场 衰退预期骤升。另外，日本央行再度加息导致全球流动性边际收紧，工业金属的金 融属性继续压缩，叠加国内消费淡季，整体价格或延续承压。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 周期研判：美国 7 月 ISM 制造业 PMI 降至 46.8，低于 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Apple Inc (AAPL O) with a target price of $274 based on FY2025 P/E of 36x [16][24][29] Core Views - Apple's FY24 Q3 revenue reached $85 8 billion (+4 9% YoY) exceeding consensus estimates of $84 5 billion Net profit was $21 5 billion (+7 9% YoY) also above expectations of $20 7 billion [29] - iPhone revenue declined slightly by 0 9% YoY to $39 3 billion but exceeded expectations of $39 billion iPad revenue surged 23 7% YoY to $7 2 billion beating estimates of $6 63 billion [29] - Services revenue grew 14% YoY to $24 2 billion higher than the expected $24 billion contributing to a 1 7 percentage point increase in gross margin to 46 3% [29] - Apple Intelligence is expected to drive a new upgrade cycle particularly with the iPhone 16 launch in CY24 Q4 (FY25 Q1) potentially reshaping the operating system ecosystem and creating new monetization opportunities [29] Financial Performance - Revenue for FY2024E is forecasted at $389 5 billion (+1 6% YoY) with GAAP net profit of $103 4 billion (+6 6% YoY) [18][24] - For FY2025E revenue is projected at $420 9 billion (+8 1% YoY) with GAAP net profit of $113 8 billion (+10% YoY) [18][24] - FY2026E revenue is estimated at $453 9 billion (+7 8% YoY) with GAAP net profit of $123 7 billion (+8 7% YoY) [18][24] Product Performance - iPhone revenue decreased 0 9% YoY to $39 3 billion in CY Q2 but exceeded expectations of $39 billion [29] - iPad revenue increased 23 7% YoY to $7 2 billion surpassing estimates of $6 63 billion [29] - Mac revenue grew 2 5% YoY to $7 billion [29] - Wearables Home & Accessories revenue declined 2 3% YoY to $8 1 billion [29] Market and Industry Analysis - Apple Intelligence is expected to drive a new upgrade cycle particularly with the iPhone 16 launch in CY24 Q4 (FY25 Q1) potentially reshaping the operating system ecosystem and creating new monetization opportunities [29] - The integration of ChatGPT into Apple Intelligence is anticipated by the end of the year with some features expected to be rolled out in phases [29] Financial Projections - Revenue for FY2024E is forecasted at $389 5 billion (+1 6% YoY) with GAAP net profit of $103 4 billion (+6 6% YoY) [18][24] - For FY2025E revenue is projected at $420 9 billion (+8 1% YoY) with GAAP net profit of $113 8 billion (+10% YoY) [18][24] - FY2026E revenue is estimated at $453 9 billion (+7 8% YoY) with GAAP net profit of $123 7 billion (+8 7% YoY) [18][24]

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 [table_Authors] 刘源(分析师) 021-38677818 liuyuan023804@gtjas.com [当前价格： Table_CurPrice] 10.28 登记编号 S0880521060001 52 周内股价区间（元） 7.11-10.43 总市值（百万元） 104,886 总股本/流通A股（百万股） 10,344/9,213 流通 B 股/H 股（百万股） 0/0 资产总额（百万元） 2,288,276 贷款总额（百万元） 1,099,073 存款总额（百万元） 1,396,366 核心一级资本充足率 9.39% 证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_Trend] 升幅(%) 1M 3M 12M 绝对升幅 -1% 15% 25% 相对指数 1% 21% 36% [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入 44,606 45,160 49,842 52,880 57 ...

近平鎮身：S0880513120002 投资建议：1）白酒建议增持：2）饮料：低价高频消费需求较为刚性、录气持续，建议增持：3）啤酒建议增持、4）大众品建议增持：①高增长标 的；②餐饮带来压力释放后，建议增持供应砥标的；③低估值、高殷息、泛稳定标的。 分母婚对板块估值的影响明显加强。当前，各种地嫁政治、宏观经济因素错综复杂，投资者预期未来的时间尺度缩短，因此我们认为短期行情走势与 投资风格的主导因素并不在于盈利成长和价值发现，而在于如何认识风险和不确定性以及对风险的接纳程度，体现在交易层面，表现为此前的泰道投 资主要是文易分子墙的盈利成长，而近期红利投资则主要交易分母墙，更加注重确定性，由此，我们认为对于食品饮料板块而言，当前分子墙成长对 估值的影响力相对下降，分母端风险预期对估值的影响占据主导。 风险偏好低位，确定性享受溢价。食品饮料尤其是白酒等板块相对具有既两期的属性，由于对板块后续需求预期仍相对偏弱，风险评价相对较高，同 时风险偏好处于低位，投资者对不确定性要求的风险补偿上升，更愿意给确定性以估值溢价。从短期板块交易维度看，成长性对估值的影响权重下 降，估值空间受到压制，市场更加注重增长的稳定性和持续性 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: OLS Regression Model **Model Construction Idea**: Utilize macroeconomic and fundamental factors to predict gold prices, incorporating high-frequency data and shorter lag periods for better recent market fit[4][23][27] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Select macroeconomic and fundamental factors such as the US Dollar Index, US 10-year Treasury yield, Federal Reserve total assets, global gold reserves, and quantitative price momentum indicators (e.g., 120-day momentum and DT strategy signals)[4][27][51] 2. Perform regression analysis using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method 3. Incorporate additional quantitative factors like momentum and DT signals to improve prediction accuracy[27][30][47] **Formula**: $ Y = -6492.97 - 11.776 X1 + 55.694 X2 + 0.00003005 X3 + 0.2596 X4 + 246800 X5 - 49.237 X6 $ - $ Y $: London gold price - $ X1 $: US Dollar Index - $ X2 $: US 10-year Treasury yield - $ X3 $: Federal Reserve total assets - $ X4 $: Global gold reserves - $ X5 $: 120-day price momentum - $ X6 $: DT strategy timing signal[51] **Model Evaluation**: Improved prediction accuracy with added quantitative factors, capturing non-macro and non-fundamental drivers[30][50] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Momentum Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Analyze price trends by calculating average returns over a specific period, assuming price movements persist[9][13][19] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Define daily logarithmic returns: $ r_i = \ln(P_i / P_{i-1}) $ 2. Calculate cumulative or average returns over $ N $ days: $ Momentum_T = \sum_{i=T-N}^{T} r_i $ or $ Momentum_T = \frac{1}{N} \sum_{i=T-N}^{T} r_i $ 3. Use thresholds to determine trading signals: - Open long positions when momentum exceeds a positive threshold - Open short positions when momentum falls below a negative threshold[12][13][19] **Factor Evaluation**: Effective for capturing long-term trends but less sensitive to short-term fluctuations[39][42] - **Factor Name**: Dual Thrust (DT) Strategy Signal **Factor Construction Idea**: A rule-based timing strategy derived from historical price ranges to generate buy/sell signals[3][19][20] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate $ HH $, $ LC $, $ HC $, and $ LL $: - $ HH $: Highest high of $ N $ days - $ LC $: Lowest close of $ N $ days - $ HC $: Highest close of $ N $ days - $ LL $: Lowest low of $ N $ days 2. Compute upper and lower bounds: $ Upper = Open + K1 \cdot \max(HH - LC, HC - LL) $ $ Lower = Open - K2 \cdot \max(HH - LC, HC - LL) $ 3. Generate signals: - Open long positions when price exceeds $ Upper $ - Open short positions when price falls below $ Lower $[19][20] **Factor Evaluation**: Provides predictive timing signals with moderate Sharpe and Calmar ratios[20][22] Model Backtesting Results - **OLS Regression Model**: - R-squared: 0.950 - Adjusted R-squared: 0.947 - F-statistic: 288.8 - Prob(F-statistic): 5.41e-66[47][50] - **Momentum Factor**: - R-squared (120-day momentum): 0.909 - Adjusted R-squared: 0.909 - F-statistic: 563.1 - Prob(F-statistic): 5.23e-171[35][39] - **DT Strategy Signal**: - Sharpe Ratio: 0.61 - Calmar Ratio: 0.26 - Annualized Return: 6% - Total Return: 89.1%[20][22] Factor Backtesting Results - **Momentum Factor**: - R-squared (250-day momentum): 0.921 - Adjusted R-squared: 0.921 - F-statistic: 563.1 - Prob(F-statistic): 5.23e-171[39][42] - **DT Strategy Signal**: - Sharpe Ratio: 0.61 - Calmar Ratio: 0.26 - Annualized Return: 6% - Total Return: 89.1%[20][22]

AI 端侧系列推荐之十四 | --- | --- | |----------|--------------------| | | 文紫妍(分析师) | | | 021-38038321 | | | wenziyan@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880523070001 | 本报告导读： Apple Intelligence 测试版增加 Writing Tools 等多项 AI 功能，预计 2025H1 推出完 整 AI 功能，未来或推出付费订阅，带动业绩上涨，看好果链业绩上行。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 投资建议。Apple Intelligence 测试版新增多项 AI 功能，性能表现出 色，后续将进行多次更新并预计 2025H1 推出完整 AI 功能。目前发 布机型仅 iphone 15 Pro 与 iphone 15 Pro Max 支持 Apple Intelligence， 驱动用户更换 iPhone 16 等最新终端，拉动上游果链业绩上行。推荐 标的立讯精密、鹏鼎控股、东山精密、世华科技，受益标的蓝思科 技、环旭电子、歌尔股份、领益智造。 Apple Intel ...

股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 ——2024 半年报点评 业绩稳健提升，海外产能蓄势待发 威胜信息(688100) 电信运营 [Table_Industry] /信息技术 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------------------|-------------------------| | | | | | | [table_Authors] 王彦龙 ( 分析师 ) | 苏哲西 ( 研究助理 ) | | | 010-83939775 | 021-38031652 | | | wangyanlong@gtjas.com | Suzhexi028697@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880519100003 | S0880123070147 | 本报告导读： 维持盈利预测，上调目标价，维持增持评级；业绩稳健提升，国际业务增长显著； 新型能源系统建设有望提振国内业务，出海业务超预期。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 维持盈利预测，上调目标价，维持增持评级。考虑到公司在国内市 场竞标成绩超预期及海外市场持续 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for WuXi AppTec (603259) [2][7] Core Views - The company has shown strong growth in its order backlog and is accelerating the development of its TIDES business. The company reaffirms its annual performance guidance, indicating a positive long-term growth outlook [7][8] - The target price has been adjusted down to 52.96 from the previous 65.17, reflecting a revised earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024-2026 [7] Financial Summary - For 2024H1, the company reported revenue of 17.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.6%, and a non-IFRS net profit of 4.41 billion yuan, down 8.3% year-on-year [7] - The revenue from the chemical business was 12.21 billion yuan, with a 2.1% year-on-year increase when excluding COVID-19 related orders [7] - The TIDES business revenue reached 2.08 billion yuan in 2024H1, showing a significant growth of 57.2% year-on-year, with a backlog increase of 147% [7] Order Backlog and Growth - As of 2024H1, the order backlog stands at 43.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 33.2% when excluding specific commercial production projects [7] - The company has added 644 new molecules in 2024H1, with growth rates of 7% for R&D, 18% for D, and 20% for M segments [7] Market Position and Competitiveness - The company continues to maintain its leading position in the industry, with significant contributions from its peptide business and ongoing improvements in operational efficiency [7][8] - The report highlights the potential for long-term growth driven by the expansion of the TIDES business and the addition of new clients and projects [7]

Investment Rating and Core Views - The report initiates coverage on Sinomed with an **Overweight** rating and a target price of **10.37 CNY**, representing a potential upside of **25.5%** from the current price of **8.26 CNY** [3][6] - The core investment thesis revolves around the **strong recovery of Sinomed's coronary business** and the **differentiated products in the neurovascular intervention market**, which are expected to drive growth [1][6] - The company's coronary business has rebounded strongly, with sales growing **99% YoY in 2023**, driven by new stent products that won bids in the 2022 national procurement [6][43] - The neurovascular intervention business is poised for growth, supported by a **comprehensive product portfolio** and **differentiated flagship products**, with the market expected to grow at a **CAGR of 28.9% from 2020 to 2026E** [6][57] Financial Projections and Valuation - Revenue is projected to grow from **476 million CNY in 2024E** to **934 million CNY in 2026E**, with a **CAGR of 38.7%** [6][10] - Net profit is expected to turn positive in **2024E at 3 million CNY**, and grow significantly to **119 million CNY in 2026E**, with a **CAGR of 274.2%** [6][10] - The valuation is based on a **PS multiple of 9X**, derived from comparable companies in the medical device sector, resulting in a target price of **10.37 CNY** [13][14] Coronary Business Recovery - Sinomed's coronary business has recovered strongly, with **coronary stent sales growing 99.1% YoY in 2023**, driven by new products that won bids in the 2022 national procurement [6][43] - The company's **HT Supreme and HT Infinity stents** were successfully bid in the 2022 national procurement, with a combined purchase volume of nearly **50,000 units**, and have been selected by over **1,000 hospitals** [43][44] - The company's **coronary balloon products** are also expanding, with the **first domestically produced spiked balloon** approved in September 2023, which won the top bid in the "3+N" alliance procurement, expected to contribute **45 million CNY in sales in 2024E** [10][48] Neurovascular Intervention Market Opportunity - The **neurovascular intervention market** in China is in a **rapid growth phase**, with the number of procedures expected to grow from **161,000 in 2020** to **741,000 in 2026E**, at a **CAGR of 28.9%** [6][57] - Sinomed has a **comprehensive product portfolio** in the neurovascular space, including **intracranial stents, balloons, and thrombectomy devices**, with **13 products approved in China** as of May 2024 [61] - The company's **NOVA stent**, the **only drug-eluting intracranial stent in China**, is in a **rapid growth phase**, with sales expected to grow **16% YoY in 2024E** [10][12] - The company is also developing a **self-expanding drug-eluting intracranial stent (COMETIU)**, which is expected to be approved by the end of 2024 and contribute **56 million CNY in sales in 2025E** [10][12] Competitive Advantages and Catalysts - Sinomed has a **strong R&D pipeline**, with **22 products in development** across coronary, neurovascular, and structural heart disease fields, supported by **160 global patents** [28] - The company's **differentiated products** and **early-mover advantage** in the neurovascular market position it well to capture market share as the industry grows [6][61] - Key catalysts include the **approval of new products** and **faster-than-expected sales growth** of recently launched products, particularly in the neurovascular intervention market [6][61]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 32.37 CNY, reflecting an increase in EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company reported record high revenue in Q2 2024, achieving 2.691 billion CNY in sales for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.43%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 368 million CNY, up 43.82% year-on-year [3]. - The growth in revenue is attributed to several factors, including a robust performance in consumer electronics, accelerated growth in automotive electronics, and rapid expansion in the photovoltaic and energy storage markets [3]. - The company is focusing on high-end product development and has seen an increase in market share, particularly in the automotive electronics and energy sectors [3]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company reported a net profit of 368 million CNY, with a non-recurring net profit of 348 million CNY, reflecting increases of 43.82% and 49.53% year-on-year, respectively [3]. - The Q2 2024 revenue reached 1.432 billion CNY, marking a 9.6% year-on-year increase and a 13.78% quarter-on-quarter increase, with a gross margin of 36.98% [3]. - The company has adjusted its EPS forecasts to 1.12 CNY for 2024, 1.43 CNY for 2025, and introduced a new forecast of 1.72 CNY for 2026 [3][10]. Market Trends - The report highlights the increasing demand for electronic components driven by AI applications in both edge and cloud computing, which is expected to significantly boost the usage of passive components [3]. - The automotive electronics segment has achieved comprehensive coverage of top global automotive and new energy vehicle clients, with a broad product line and increasing market share [3]. - The photovoltaic and energy storage sectors are also experiencing rapid growth, with the company gaining recognition from leading domestic and international enterprises [3].