国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 高股息逻辑的演绎和扩散 | | | | | |----------------|-------------------|--------------------|-----------------------| | [table_Authors | 徐强](分析师) | 邵潇(分析师) | 于歆(分析师) | | | 010-83939805 | 0755-23976520 | 021-38038345 | | | xuqiang@gtjas.com | shaoxiao@gtjas.com | yuxin024466@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880517040002 | S0880517070004 | S0880523050005 | 本报告导读: 上周 CEA 周成交 27 万吨,周成交均价 91 元/吨。地方碳配额周成交 47 万吨,周成 交均价 59 元/吨。全国 CCER 周成交 1.14 万吨。 投资要点: [Table环保板块上周 ...

股 票 研 究 关注暑期出游旺季数据催化 | | | | |----------------|---------------------|----------------------------------| | | | ——商社行业周报(2024.07.01-07.07) | | [table_Authors | 刘越男](分析师) | 庄子童(研究助理) | | | 021-38677706 | 021-38032683 | | | liuyuenan@gtjas.com | zhuangzitong026312@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880516030003 | S0880122050050 | 本报告导读: 关注暑期旺季客流催化。 投资要点: [Table投资观点: _Summary]继续重点推荐垂直 O2O+出海。①互联网龙头从单一追求 规模到重视盈利,垂直 O2O 公司的竞争格局显著改善,服务类行业 未来有望量价齐升,推荐途虎-W;②教育底部反转,推荐业绩可持 续兑现的低估值个股:卓越教育、思考乐教育、粉笔、行动教育 等;③平价出海零售仍维持高景气,推荐:名创优品、小商品城 ...

A 股 策 略 观 察 摘要： [Table旅游出行热度延续，二手房表现优于新房。 _Summary] 上周（07.01-07.07）中观 景气表现分化，值得关注：1）年中冲量后新房成交环比回落明显，同 比增长转负；二手房销售环比回落，但受低基数影响同比仍延续正增， 后续销售回暖仍需更多政策支持；2）暑期旅游出行热度延续，百度迁 徙规模指数，国内/国际航班执飞架次环比继续提升，海南旅游价格指 数环比上涨，交通、住宿类涨价是主要贡献；3）受专项债发行偏缓， 以及雨水天气影响，建筑施工需求仍偏弱，钢材水泥需求、石油沥青 开工率磨底，全国公路货运流量指数环比下滑；4）耐用品内需仍待改 善，6 月乘用车销量同比负增，7 月家用空调排产下调。 风险提示：海外高利率持续时间超预期，全球地缘政治的不确定性。 ● 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 of 13 旅游出行热度延续，二手房表现优于新房。上周（07.01-07.07）中观景气表 现分化，值得关注：1）年中冲量后新房成交环比回落明显，同比增长转负； 二手房销售环比回落，但受低基数影响同比仍延续正增，后续销售回暖仍需 更多政策支持；2）暑期旅游出行热度延续，百度迁徙 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company, with an upgraded target price of 113.10 CNY, up from the previous forecast of 95.36 CNY [4][8]. Core Insights - The second quarter (Q2) performance exceeded expectations, indicating that the market bottom was reached in Q1. Demand continued to rise in Q2, leading to improved profitability due to price increases in storage products [8]. - The company is positioned at the bottom of the storage and MCU cycle, with production rates gradually increasing. Prices for SLC NAND and niche DRAM are rising moderately, benefiting from capacity expansion and new product iterations [8]. - The company reported a revenue of approximately 3.609 billion CNY for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 21.69%, and a net profit of around 518 million CNY, up 54.18% year-on-year [8]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be 7.343 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 27.5%. Net profit is expected to reach 1.161 billion CNY, reflecting a significant recovery from the previous year's 161 million CNY [8]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 have been revised to 1.74 CNY, 2.45 CNY, and 3.43 CNY respectively, up from previous estimates of 1.49 CNY, 2.28 CNY, and 3.24 CNY [8]. - The company’s market capitalization stands at 64.717 billion CNY, with a current price of 97.04 CNY and a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 55.75 for 2024 [5][8]. Market Trends - The report highlights a recovery in demand from the consumer and networking markets, which has positively impacted the sales and revenue growth of the company's storage chips [8]. - Price increases are expected to continue across various product lines, including niche DRAM and SLC NAND, driven by recovering demand and capacity transfers from larger manufacturers [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company with a target price of 15 RMB per share [4][19]. Core Insights - The company has over 20 years of experience in the resin lens industry, establishing itself as a leading exporter with a market share of approximately 7.3% in China [4][19]. - The company is positioned as the second-largest resin lens manufacturer globally by volume and fifth by sales revenue in 2023 [4][19]. - The report forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.2%, 20.2%, and 17% for net profit from 2024 to 2026, with net profits projected at 4.09 billion, 4.92 billion, and 5.75 billion RMB respectively [4][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 20.1 billion, 22.7 billion, and 25.4 billion RMB from 2024 to 2026, with respective growth rates of 14.5%, 12.9%, and 11.8% [12][19]. - The report highlights the company's competitive advantages, including a strong C2M model and a diversified product matrix [11][19]. 2. Company Development - The company has three production bases in Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Japan, with capacity utilization rates exceeding 90% [20][109]. - The company has a concentrated shareholding structure, with the founder holding approximately 49.87% of the shares [4][29]. - The revenue from customized lenses has increased significantly, with a CAGR of 20.3% from 2019 to 2023 [4][32]. 3. Industry Outlook - The global lens market is projected to grow from 50.1 billion USD in 2023 to 67.7 billion USD by 2028, with a CAGR of 6.2% [51][62]. - The demand for customized lenses is expected to grow rapidly, driven by increasing consumer preferences for personalized and functional products [51][62]. - The report notes that the prevalence of myopia is rising globally, which is expected to drive demand for corrective lenses [57][62]. 4. Core Advantages - The company boasts a rich product matrix with over 700 SKUs, catering to diverse consumer needs [102][104]. - The company has a strong R&D capability, with a research expense ratio of around 4%, which is above industry standards [114][109]. - The C2M model enhances operational efficiency by connecting consumers directly with manufacturers, reducing costs and improving service delivery [126][129]. 5. Financial Performance - The company has shown resilience with a revenue increase from 1.07 billion RMB in 2019 to 1.78 billion RMB in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 10.7% [38][41]. - The net profit has grown from 112 million RMB in 2019 to 327 million RMB in 2023, with a CAGR of 23.9% [38][41]. - The gross margin has improved from 33% in 2019 to 37.4% in 2023, driven by a higher proportion of customized lenses [41][44].

邮编 200041 518026 100032 电话 （021）38676666 （0755）23976888 （010）83939888 E-mail：gtjaresearch@gtjas.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 4 of 4 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------|-----------------|----------------------------------------------------------| | | | | 评级 | 说明 | | | 投资建议的比较标准 | | 增持 | 相对沪深 300 指数涨幅 15% 以上 | | | 投资评级分为股票评级和行业评级。 | | 谨慎增持 | 相对沪深 300 指数涨幅介于 5% ～ 15% 之间 | | | 以报告发布后的 12 个月内的 ...

[Table_Industry] 建筑工程业 2024.07.11[Table_Invest] 评级: 增持 上次评级: 增持 [Table_subIndustry] 细分行业评级 | | |----------------------------------------| | [Table_Report] 相关报告 | | 建筑工程业《税改/土改/国改 | | 改革投资机会梳理》 | | | | 建筑工程业《财政地产等建筑产业链全景数 | | 据库 20240707》 | | | | 建筑工程业《财税改革利好中国中铁和中国 | | 交建,电力中国能建和中国电建》 | | | | 建筑工程业《财政地产等建筑产业链全景数 | | 据库 20240630》 | | | | 建筑工程业《电力中国能建和中国电建,车 | | 路协同华设集团和深城交》 | | | 股 票 研 究 车路云一体化业务华设集团、深城交有序推进 | | | | |-----------------|-----------------------|---------------------------| | [table_Authors] | 韩 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 21.32 CNY, reflecting an upward adjustment in earnings forecasts for 2024-2026 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 175-185 million CNY for H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 46%-55%. The growth is driven by high performance in Douyin and distribution channels, particularly in products like timed mosquito repellent and Xiaotaoxi cream [2][4]. - The company has a rich pipeline of new products for H2 2024, which is anticipated to sustain high growth trends, especially in the baby care segment [2][4]. - Long-term growth potential is supported by the company's competitive pricing strategy and channel expansion, positioning it as a leading domestic brand in personal care and baby products [2][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 1,033 million CNY in 2023 to 1,344 million CNY in 2024, reflecting a 30.2% increase. Net profit is expected to rise from 226 million CNY in 2023 to 309 million CNY in 2024, a growth of 36.9% [12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.56 CNY in 2023 to 0.76 CNY in 2024 [12]. - The company maintains a high gross margin of 56.3% in 2023, expected to improve to 58.1% in 2024 [12]. Market Data - The company's market capitalization stands at 7,315 million CNY, with a current share price of 18.08 CNY [14]. - The stock has traded within a range of 12.45-22.08 CNY over the past 52 weeks [14]. Product and Channel Performance - The Douyin channel is projected to see a GMV growth of 50%-100%, with Q2 growth accelerating compared to Q1 due to optimized strategies and strong product sales [2][4]. - The company has successfully launched new products in the mosquito repellent and baby care categories, which are expected to drive further revenue growth [2][4]. Long-term Outlook - The company is well-positioned to benefit from trends favoring cost-effective products and channel expansion, with significant growth potential in the personal care and baby product sectors [2][4].

1）实现全体人民共同富裕：以财税改革调节收入分配。逐步提高所得税、财产税和资源税为主的直接税比重，降低间接税（如增值税）的比重。 2）实现高质量发展：新型举国体制与要素市场化改革。新型举国体制是政府引导下实现科技产业突围的关键手段，而进一步要素市场化改革，推进全国统一大市 场是关键。 3）丰富人民精神世界：社会文化事业改革。科技产业吸纳就业能力低于传统劳动密集型产业导致就业存在压力的背景下，发展文化事业、提高服务业比重也是实 现高质量就业的必由之路。 4）人与自然和谐共生：继续推进节能降碳和绿色发展。2023年12月颁布建设美丽中国文件，节能降碳和绿色发展是促进人与自然和谐共生的重要途径。 5）构建人类命运共同体：高水平对外开放。一是促进贸易、资本和人员的双向流通；二是积极参与全球合作和全球治理；三是促进制度型开放，也有利于促进国 内制度改革与创新。 "奔着问题去、盯着问题改"，要求分析当前中国经济面临的现实问题，为全面深化改革定方案： 1）问题一：老龄化背景下全社会资本风偏下降与高风险资本发展科创之间的矛盾。改革方案包括：第一，培育耐心资本；第二，拓宽投融资渠道，引导扩大主权 财富基金、养老金、高校教育基金 ...

我们更新了最新（6月）的居民早偿率数据，发现：总量角度，居民的提前还贷强度有所放缓，呈现季节性回落的态势，条件早偿率（CPR）回到23.4%（前值 25.9%）；但结构分化明显，债务负担不重的居民（剩余本金在20%以内）提前还贷比例仍在上升，来到历史高位，而债务负担较重的（剩余本金在20%以上） 提前还贷比例却回落到偏低水位。极致分化的背后是两股力量在驱动。 2021年楼市见顶回落，但是居民早偿加速却从2023年才开始，这中间有1-2年的时滞，原因是高负债群体的提前还贷行为往往是被动的。当房价跌到资产负债表 失衡的状态时，为了防止失信，那么居民往往会主动压缩负债，修复资产负债表。6月份，高负债群体早偿率有所回落，可能由于"517"地产新政后，楼市阶段性 企稳，资产收缩预期缓解。当然，不排除居民手里没有太多闲钱所致（还不动）。 虽然目前总体早偿率较4月高点略有回落，但内部结构凸显配置需求的群体正在加速向提前还贷倾斜，也制约了当下风险资产的表现。因此，提前还贷是当下重要 的宏观命题（详见我们在2024年6月15日发布的报告：《"提前还贷"是当下重要的货币现象》）。而阻断这一循环的关键在于缩窄"5年期LPR"和"无 ...