股 票研 究 行业更新 证 券研究报告 2024.05.20 浆价偏强运行延续，自制浆成本优势放大 一造纸行业更新报告 刘佳昆(分析师) 毛宇翔(研究助理) 021-38038184 0755-23976668 liujiakun029641@gtjas.com maoyuxiang029547@gtjas.com 证书编号S0880524040004 S0880124030007 本报告导读： 海外需求及供给扰动继续支撑浆价强势表现，自制浆资产优势或放大。 摘要： 浆价强势延续、自制浆优势放大。当前看，海外需求及供给仍在主 导浆价，预计浆价继续偏强运行，向下空间有限。近期文化纸联合提 价，有助于稳定价格预期。往后看，随高价浆陆续到港，预计行业生 产成本开始分化，具备自制浆的厂商成本优势将被放大。 供给端：扰动延续。2024年4月以来纸浆产能扰频出，包括芬兰 工延长、以及芬林凯米浆厂爆炸停产，一度推高期货及现货价格。进 入5月，国内需求边际转弱，而海外供应扰动仍在延续，CMPC因暴 雨减产20%、Canfor停产北木浆线、加拿大准备铁路罢工、APP印 尼浆厂爆炸停产，叠加部分浆厂5月的常规检修，这进一步抑制了 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5]. Core Views - The company's FY2024 revenue and profit met expectations, with a revenue of 28.93 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, and a net profit of 2.21 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 20.5% [3]. - The gross profit margin improved to 41.8%, up 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin increased to 7.6%, up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company maintained a high dividend payout ratio of over 100%, with a total dividend of 0.20 RMB per share for FY2024 [3]. Financial Summary - FY2024 revenue: 28,933 million RMB, +6.9% YoY [2]. - FY2024 net profit: 2,211 million RMB, +20.5% YoY [2]. - FY2024 gross profit margin: 41.8%, +0.1 percentage points YoY [3]. - FY2024 net profit margin: 7.6%, +0.8 percentage points YoY [3]. - FY2025-2027 net profit forecasts adjusted to 2,480 million, 2,780 million, and 3,100 million RMB respectively [3]. Market Performance - The stock price has ranged between 4.91 and 7.43 HKD over the past 52 weeks, with a current market capitalization of 35,347 million HKD [4].

股 票 研 究 [Table_industryInfo] 传播文化业 [ Table_Main[ 2TI 0na 2fbo 4le] . _ 0T 5i .t 2le 3] [评Tab级le_：Inv est] 增持 上次评级: 增持 5 月版号下发，游戏公司产品节奏常态化 [细Ta分bl行e_业su评bI级nd ustry] 行 业 陈筱(分析师) 杨昊(分析师) 事 021-38675863 021-38032025 件 chenxiao@gtjas.com yanghao029514@gtjas.com 证书编号 S0880515040003 S0880524020001 快 评 本报告导读： 2024年第五批国产游戏版号共下发96个，5月网易“520”游戏发布会释放 [相Ta关ble报_D告oc Report] 积极产品布局、腾讯《DNF手游》上线，游戏公司产品节奏越发稳定可期。 传播文化业《AI多模态更进一步，剧综再 摘要： 度引爆收视热潮》 2024.05.19 [T abl事e_件Su：mm5a月ry]2 0日，国家新闻出版署官网发布2024年5月国产网络游 传播文化业《GPT-4o发布，关注 ...

股 票 研 究 [Table_industryInfo] 综合金融 [ Table_Main[ 2TI 0na 2fbo 4le] . _ 0T 5i .t 2le 3] [评Tab级le_：Inv est] 增持 上次评级: 增持 需求不足致信贷偏弱，政策加码促回暖 [细Ta分bl行e_业su评bI级nd ustry] 行 ——2024 年 4 月央行消费贷款数据点评 业 刘欣琦(分析师) 孙坤(分析师) 事 021-38676647 021-38038260 件 liuxinqi@gtjas.com sunkun024098@gtjas.com 证书编号 S0880515050001 S0880523030001 快 评 本报告导读： 2024 年 4 月金融机构居民短期消费贷款表现偏弱，需求偏弱仍是主因，政策持续加 [相Ta关ble报_D告oc Report] 码，看好政策推动后续消费增长。 综合金融《利差损边际缓解，继续推荐纯寿 摘要： 险》 2024.05.18 [T abl事e_件Su：m央ma行ry披] 露2024年4月金融机构居民短期消费贷款为99118.44 综合金融《固收稳中有升，权益新 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][4]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 2024 performance met expectations, with increased investment in international business impacting core OTA profit margins. The company continues to benefit from the rising travel demand in domestic and lower-tier markets [4]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is projected at 2.715 billion, 3.291 billion, and 4.002 billion RMB respectively. The target market capitalization is raised to 54.3 billion RMB, corresponding to 59.1 billion HKD, with a target price adjustment to 25.97 HKD [4]. - Q1 2024 revenue reached 3.866 billion RMB, a 49.5% increase year-on-year, with adjusted EBITDA of 820 million RMB, up 12% [4]. Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of 5,933 million RMB in 2020, which is expected to grow to 17,097 million RMB in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 43.72% [5]. - The adjusted net profit is projected to increase from 926 million RMB in 2020 to 2,715 million RMB in 2024, showing a significant recovery from previous years [5]. - The adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to stabilize around 18.10% in 2024, indicating a healthy operational performance [5].

股 票 研 究 [Table_industryInfo] 林纸产品/原材料 [ Table_Main[ 顾TIna 家fbole] 家 _T 居itle (] 6 03816) [评Tab级le_：Inv est] 增持 上次评级： 增持 软体龙头锐意进取，转型变革再出发 目标价格： 65.19 上次预测： 45.64 公 —顾家家居更新报告 当前价格： 37.50 司 刘佳昆(分析师) 毛宇翔(研究助理) 2024.05.23 更 021-38038184 0755-23976668 [交Ta易bl数e_据M arket] 新 liujiakun029641@gtjas.com maoyuxiang029547@gtjas.co 报 证书编号 S0880524040004 mS0 880124030007 52周内股价区间（元） 31.64-45.30 总市值（百万元） 30,821 告 本报告导读： 总股本/流通A股（百万股） 822/822 流通B股/H股（百万股） 0/0 外部环境波动加剧，公司积极夯实内功，推动业务结构变革，短期三大战术与长期三 流通股比例 100% 大战略结合，业务成长逻辑清晰。 ...

股 票 研 究 [Table_industryInfo] 汽车 [ Table_Main[ 2TI 0na 2fbo 4le] . _ 0T 5i .t 2le 3] [评Tab级le_：Inv est] 增持 上次评级: 增持 4 月中大排摩托销量创新高，国内同比转正 [细Ta分bl行e_业su评bI级nd ustry] 行 ——2024 年 4 月中大排摩托车数据点评 业 吴晓飞(分析师) 管正月(分析师) 事 0755-23976003 021-38032026 件 wuxiaofei@gtjas.com guanzhengyue@gtjas.com 证书编号 S0880517080003 S0880521030003 快 评 本报告导读： 中大排摩托车（250cc 以上）4 月国内销量同比转正，需求逐步企稳，出口持续强势 [相Ta关ble报_D告oc Report] 表现，内外共振下4月行业销量创单月新高。 汽车《插混驱动新能源乘用车销量稳步增 摘要： 长》 2024.05.15 [T abl维e_持Su行mm业a增ry]持 评级，内外共振下，继续看好中大排摩托车板块高景 汽车《增加关税靴子落地，对 ...

股 票 研 究 [Table_industryInfo] 新兴能源 [ Table_Main[ 2TI 0na 2fbo 4le] . _ 0T 5i .t 2le 2] [评Tab级le_：Inv est] 增持 上次评级： 增持 供需改善预期与价格底部临近，看好光伏行业边际向上 [细Ta分bl行e_业su评bI级nd ustry] 行 业 庞钧文(分析师) 周淼顺(分析师) 朱攀(分析师) 更 021-38674703 021-38038264 021-38031724 新 pangjunwen@gtjas.com zhoumiaoshun@gtjas.com zhupan027597@gtjas.com 证书编号 S0880517120001 S0880521040003 S0880523090001 本报告导读： 当前光伏行业已经处于预期底部位置，后续伴随供需改善预期与产业链价格底部企 [相Ta关ble报_D告oc Report] 稳，行业基本面有望边际向上。 新兴能源《中国需求韧性足，欧美销量待 摘要： 改善》 2024.05.21 [T abl投e_资Su建m议ma：ry我] 们判断当前光伏行业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ctrip Group [2][3]. Core Views - The company exceeded expectations in Q1 2024, benefiting from improvements in the OTA industry landscape and strong growth in outbound and overseas travel, with profit margins still on an upward trajectory [2]. - Adjusted net profit estimates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 have been raised to RMB 14.299 billion, RMB 17.075 billion, and RMB 19.580 billion, reflecting increases of +14.16%, +16.92%, and +19.40% respectively [2]. - The target market capitalization has been adjusted to RMB 328.9 billion, corresponding to a target price of HKD 528 based on a 23x PE valuation for 2024 [2]. Financial Summary - Q1 2024 revenue reached RMB 11.92 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of +29.42%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 4.312 billion, up +27.76% [2]. - Adjusted net profit for Q1 2024 was RMB 4.055 billion, showing a significant increase of +96.37%, and adjusted EBITDA was RMB 3.974 billion, up +40.92% with an EBITDA margin of 33.3%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points [2]. - The revenue growth slightly exceeded guidance (+29.42% vs. expected 24-29%), while adjusted EBITDA significantly surpassed expectations (RMB 3.974 billion vs. expected RMB 3.2-3.4 billion) [2]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company demonstrated strong performance in group travel, with a growth rate of +129%, driven primarily by outbound travel demand, as international flights have recovered to 70% of pre-pandemic levels [2]. - Ctrip's overseas segment, Trip.com, experienced rapid growth, with a revenue increase of 80% in Q1 2024, contributing to 10% of total revenue [2]. - The report highlights Ctrip's brand strength and product supply advantages, particularly in high-tier cities, where travel consumption remains resilient despite concerns over growth rates from a high base [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BOSS Zhipin [3][4]. Core Views - BOSS Zhipin's Q1 2024 performance exceeded expectations, showcasing its ability to gain market share through a versatile business model during a downturn in industry sentiment [3]. - The company is positioned in a growth cycle regarding scale, market structure, and profit margins, with a target market capitalization of 79.4 billion RMB for 2024, corresponding to 87.5 billion HKD, and a target price of 98.33 HKD per share [3]. - The report highlights that BOSS Zhipin's revenue and adjusted net profit growth are driven by its competitive advantages and business model, particularly in the blue-collar market, which accounts for 35% of its revenue [3]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2024, BOSS Zhipin reported cash income of 2.051 billion RMB, a 24.31% increase, and operating revenue growth of 17.03% [3]. - The adjusted net profit for Q1 2024 was 531 million RMB, reflecting a 117% increase compared to the same period in the previous year [3]. - The average monthly active users reached 46.6 million, up 17.4%, with the number of paying enterprise users increasing by 42.5% to 5.7 million [3]. Market Trends - The recruitment trends indicate a strong performance in the blue-collar segment, with significant growth in large enterprises compared to small and medium-sized enterprises [3]. - The report notes that BOSS Zhipin is in a phase of establishing brand recognition, leading to improved marketing ROI and profit margins [3]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with leading companies like BOSS Zhipin gaining substantial market share, potentially exceeding 50% in the online recruitment sector [3].