Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - The focus of the recent meeting held by the National People's Congress Standing Committee was on debt resolution, with a total scale mentioned of 12 trillion yuan, aimed at systematically addressing hidden debt issues, including risks in the real estate sector [3]. - Among the 12 trillion yuan, 6 trillion yuan is allocated for increasing local government debt limits, 4 trillion yuan for new local special bonds, and 2 trillion yuan for extending the funding for shantytown renovation [3]. - The debt resolution period is set for 5 years, with the balance expected to decrease to 2.3 trillion yuan after this period, indicating a manageable level of debt [3]. - The policy aims to lower the overall cost of financing for the society, with an estimated total saving of 600 billion yuan over 5 years, translating to an annual interest rate reduction of approximately 200 basis points [3]. - The absence of a set deadline for the debt could allow for a form of base currency effect, potentially leading to credit expansion similar to the shantytown renovation financing in 2016-2017 [3]. - The report anticipates that the current policies will stabilize housing prices, which are crucial for economic confidence, and improve market expectations for real estate prices [3]. Summary by Sections Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Vanke A (000002.SZ): Current stock price 9.51 yuan, market cap 108.7 billion yuan, 2023 EPS 1.02 yuan, 2024E EPS 0.74 yuan, 2025E EPS 0.82 yuan, PE 2024E 12.9, Investment Rating: Overweight [5]. - Poly Developments (600048.SH): Current stock price 11.18 yuan, market cap 133.8 billion yuan, 2023 EPS 1.01 yuan, 2024E EPS 0.95 yuan, 2025E EPS 1.01 yuan, PE 2024E 11.8, Investment Rating: Overweight [5]. - China Merchants Shekou (001979.SZ): Current stock price 12.01 yuan, market cap 108.8 billion yuan, 2023 EPS 0.70 yuan, 2024E EPS 0.79 yuan, 2025E EPS 0.85 yuan, PE 2024E 15.2, Investment Rating: Overweight [5]. - China New Group (601512.SH): Current stock price 7.86 yuan, market cap 11.9 billion yuan, 2023 EPS 0.91 yuan, 2024E EPS 0.92 yuan, 2025E EPS 0.99 yuan, PE 2024E 8.5, Investment Rating: Overweight [5]. - Binjiang Group (002244.SZ): Current stock price 10.24 yuan, market cap 31.9 billion yuan, 2023 EPS 0.81 yuan, 2024E EPS 0.98 yuan, 2025E EPS 1.10 yuan, PE 2024E 10.4, Investment Rating: Overweight [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the mechanical industry, consistent with the previous rating [1]. Core Viewpoints - The prices of major gases such as oxygen and nitrogen have slightly declined week-on-week but are expected to gradually recover with the anticipated revival in downstream demand due to national economic policies [2][3]. - The report highlights that the prices of rare gases are expected to remain relatively stable, while major gas prices are projected to gradually rebound [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Major Gas Prices - Oxygen price as of November 9 is 422.1 RMB/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.9%, monthly increase of 10.6%, and annual decrease of 2.7% [5]. - Nitrogen price is 440.7 RMB/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.2%, monthly increase of 6.9%, and annual decrease of 11.8% [5]. - Argon price is 661.7 RMB/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.2%, monthly increase of 13.2%, and annual decrease of 45.8% [5]. Rare Gas Prices - Neon price is 115 RMB/m³, with no weekly change, a monthly decrease of 4.2%, and an annual decrease of 47.7% [5]. - Krypton price is 330 RMB/m³, stable week-on-week, with an annual increase of 45.0% [5]. - Xenon price is 29,500 RMB/m³, stable week-on-week, with a monthly decrease of 3.3% and an annual decrease of 46.8% [5]. - Helium price for a 40L bottle is 633.5 RMB/bottle, stable week-on-week, with a monthly decrease of 0.6% and an annual decrease of 44.9% [5]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Hangzhou Oxygen, Shaanxi Blower, with beneficiary stocks being Huate Gas, Qiaoyuan Co., Guanggang Gas, and others [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Viewpoints - Current policy expectations remain strong, with the coal index likely to outperform individual coal stocks due to the focus on index core dividend leaders and cyclical elasticity [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on core dividend leaders such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, as well as recommending integrated coal and power companies like Xinji Energy [4]. Summary by Sections Thermal Coal Data Tracking - As of November 8, 2024, the price of thermal coal at Huanghua Port for Q5500 grade is 857 CNY/ton, down 1 CNY/ton (-0.1%) from the previous week [7]. - The overall daily consumption remains stable, with expectations for an increase as the northern region enters the heating season starting November 15 [4]. - The report anticipates that the upward price risk for coal will be greater than the downward risk as the year-end approaches, with a price floor established above 850 CNY/ton [4]. Coking Coal Data Tracking - Coking coal prices have decreased, with the main coking coal price at Jingtang Port for Shanxi production at 1640 CNY/ton, down 100 CNY/ton (-5.7%) [31]. - The report notes that the average daily iron and steel production has decreased slightly, but demand for coking coal remains supported [4]. - The report highlights that the cost of Shanxi-produced coking coal is now lower than that of imported Australian hard coking coal by 180 CNY/ton [37]. Inventory and Market Trends - As of November 9, 2024, the inventory at Qinhuangdao Port is 6.59 million tons, an increase of 610,000 tons (10.2%) from the previous week [21]. - The report indicates that the overall inventory levels at major northern and southern ports have also increased, reflecting a broader trend in the market [4]. - The report notes that the annual long-term contract price for thermal coal remains stable at 699 CNY/ton, with no change from the previous month [24].

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 [table_Authors] 韩其成(分析师) 郭浩然(分析师) 021-38676162 010-83939793 hanqicheng8@gtjas.com guohaoran025968@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880516030004 S0880524020002 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.11.10 12 万亿财政化债将提升基建公司盈利水平和资产质量 [Table_Industry] 建筑工程业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 ——建筑行业第 372 期周报 [Table_subIndustry] 细分行业评级 本报告导读： 推荐财政化债中国交建/中国铁建/中国中铁，新能源中国能建/中国电建，地产链中 国建筑，高股息隧道股份/四川路桥/中材国际，国改中工国际，低空经济苏交科等。 投资要点： [全国人大常委会批准《国务院关于提请审议增加地方政府债务限额置换 Table_Summary] 存量隐性债务的议案》。(1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price raised to 22.20 CNY from the previous 20.96 CNY [2][4]. Core Insights - The poultry industry is experiencing high profitability, and pig farming profits are substantial with decreasing costs. The company is expected to maintain strong profits in its farming operations and increase its dividend payout ratio [3][4]. - The report forecasts EPS for 2024 and 2025 to be 1.48 CNY and 1.50 CNY respectively, with a downward revision from previous estimates of 1.62 CNY and 1.33 CNY [4]. - The company sold 1.19 billion poultry in October and is expected to maintain sales of 1.1 billion poultry in 2024, indicating stable profitability [4]. - The report highlights a decrease in farming costs, with pig farming costs dropping to 6.9-7 CNY per pound, driven by lower feed prices and improved efficiency [4]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - Rating: Buy - Previous Rating: Buy - Target Price: 22.20 CNY (previously 20.96 CNY) - Current Price: 19.30 CNY [2]. Financial Forecast - Expected EPS for 2024: 1.48 CNY - Expected EPS for 2025: 1.50 CNY - Expected EPS for 2026: 0.97 CNY [4]. Market Data - Total Market Capitalization: 128,421 million CNY - Total Shares: 6,654 million (5,439 million circulating A shares) [5]. Profitability Insights - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 9.95 billion CNY, with a payout of 1.5 CNY per 10 shares [4]. - Historical dividend yields during profitable years were 4.26% and 3.87% in 2016 and 2019 respectively, indicating potential for increased dividends in the future [4].

021-38031658 田开轩(分析师) 021-38038673 tiankaixuan()26724@gtjas.com S0880524080006 登记编号 策略研究 / 2024.11.10 方奥(分析师) fangyi020833@gtjas.com S0880520120005 被动成交热度回升，价值赛道获资金流入 一被动资金流动性周观察 本报告导读: 上周被动资金净流入转负为正,成交占比略有四升,A500 ETF增量资金效应延续, 而双创 ETF 资金流出。行业展面,被动资金蟾续流入食品饮料、银行,流出电子。 投资要点: © 上周被动资金流入转负为正，全 A 成交占比有所回升,A500 发行 带来的增量效应持续。当前股票 ETF（即被动资金）总计 806 只, 总计规模2.95 万亿元,其中跟踪宽基指数的规模 ETF共245 只,规 模占比 59.7%，行业与主题 ETF 共 496 只，规模占比 17.4%。边际 上,上周被动资金份额减小 24.7 亿份,净值环比增加 1982.3 亿元。 从资金流动情况看,股票 ETF 上周资金净流入 23.2 亿元,自此前连 续三周净流出后首现净流入。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of CNY 8.4, up from the previous target of CNY 8.25 [4] Core Views - The company's 2024-2026 EPS forecasts have been revised downward to CNY 0.48/0.56/0.64 due to weak consumer demand impacting terminal sales [2] - The company's position as a leader in the home textile industry remains solid, and it is expected to achieve a higher-than-industry-average PE ratio of 15x for 2025 [2] - The company has launched a 2024 equity incentive plan, covering 148 key personnel, including vice presidents, CFO, and board secretary, with a total grant of 2.8% of the total shares [2] - The company's performance targets for 2025-2027 are set at a revenue or non-GAAP net profit growth rate of no less than 5%/10.25%/15.76% compared to 2024 [2] - The company's fundamentals are expected to bottom out and recover, with significant profit recovery anticipated in 2025, driven by promotional policies and improving US business [2] - The company is expected to maintain high dividend payouts, with a projected 2024 dividend yield of around 6% [2] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was CNY 5,314 million, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.7%, and is expected to decline by 12.6% in 2024 before recovering to CNY 5,268 million by 2026 [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company was CNY 581 million in 2022, with a year-on-year decrease of 18.6%, and is expected to decline by 30.6% in 2024 before recovering to CNY 532 million by 2026 [1] - EPS for 2022 was CNY 0.70, expected to drop to CNY 0.48 in 2024 before recovering to CNY 0.64 by 2026 [1] - ROE was 13.9% in 2022, expected to drop to 9.8% in 2024 before recovering to 13.9% by 2026 [1] - The current PE ratio is 10.33, expected to rise to 15.09 in 2024 before declining to 11.28 by 2026 [1] Industry and Market Position - The company operates in the textile and apparel industry, classified under the consumer discretionary sector [3] - The company's market cap is CNY 6,000 million, with a total of 831 million shares outstanding, of which 827 million are A-shares [5] - The company's 52-week stock price range is CNY 6.17-10.12 [5] Financial Ratios and Valuation - The company's net asset value per share is CNY 4.80, with a PB ratio of 1.5 [6] - The company's net debt ratio is -39.20%, indicating a strong financial position [6] - The company's ROIC is expected to improve from 7.8% in 2024 to 11.4% by 2026 [9] - The company's EV/EBITDA is expected to decline from 8.91 in 2024 to 6.92 by 2026 [9] Historical Performance and Trends - The company's stock price has declined by 21% over the past 12 months, underperforming the index by 32% [7] - The company's revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 decreased by 15% year-on-year, primarily due to inventory reduction in the franchise channel and losses in overseas furniture business [2] - The company has been actively optimizing its overseas business and controlling costs, with a 0.4 percentage point decrease in the expense ratio and a 17% reduction in inventory in Q3 2024 [2] Dividend Policy - The company paid an interim dividend of CNY 166 million in 2024, with a payout ratio of approximately 105% [2] - The company has a history of high dividend payouts, with payout ratios of 141%/88%/58% in 2021-2023, and is expected to continue this trend [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the building materials industry [2][3][6] Core Views - The building materials industry has digested pessimistic expectations in the Q3 2024 report, with leading companies showing stronger resilience. The revenue growth of the consumer building materials sector is expected to bottom out, with companies actively improving cash flow and expenses. The cement sector is seeing a seasonal price stabilization strategy, and there is an expectation of substantial improvement in Q4 and year-on-year comparisons for 2025. Glass profitability is accelerating towards a bottom, and cold repairs are gradually starting. The price recovery effects in fiberglass are differentiated, with leading companies outperforming [2][3][6] Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - Consumer building materials are expected to see revenue growth bottoming out, with companies proactively improving cash flow and expenses. In Q3, the revenue growth rate of the consumer building materials sector showed increased pressure compared to Q2, with sales volume dragging down more significantly. The industry is maintaining a strategy of expanding market share through lower-tier channels and adjusting the structure to increase retail [6][11] 2. Consumer Building Materials - The revenue growth rate in Q3 is under pressure, but the overall gross margin is stabilizing. Companies are controlling expenses, and leading firms are showing significant year-on-year improvements in operating cash flow. The impact of credit impairment losses on profitability remains, but the extent of aging impairment has been sufficiently addressed [6][11][12] 3. Cement Sector - The cement sector is implementing a "price stabilization through increases" strategy, laying a solid foundation for the peak season. The industry is seeing a gradual start to seasonal price increases, with a notable improvement in cooperation among companies. The release of the capacity replacement implementation plan is expected to set a tone for limiting overproduction, which could improve supply-demand dynamics [7][8] 4. Glass and Fiberglass - Glass profitability is accelerating towards a bottom, with high inventory leading to price declines. The industry is stabilizing prices through cold repairs and production cuts. In fiberglass, leading companies are significantly outperforming the industry in both volume and profit due to their differentiated product offerings and pricing power [8][9] 5. Recommended Companies - Recommended leading companies in the consumer building materials sector include Dongfang Yuhong, Beixin Building Materials, Weixing New Materials, and Tubao. In the cement sector, recommended companies are Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, and Shangfeng Cement. For glass and fiberglass, recommended companies include China Jushi, Xinyi Glass, Qibin Group, and Fuyao Glass [3][9][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the utility sector [4]. Core Insights - The improvement of energy regulations supports the development of renewable energy, with the National Grid Research Institute projecting that by 2030, the national installed power capacity will exceed 5 billion kilowatts, with a 7-year CAGR of 8.0%. Renewable energy generation capacity is expected to exceed 2.8 billion kilowatts, with a 7-year CAGR of 15.0% [3][7]. - The formal issuance of the Energy Law in November 2024 emphasizes the priority of developing renewable energy and improving the consumption guarantee mechanism for renewable energy [3][7]. - The assessment of renewable energy consumption responsibility weights for 2023 shows a good completion rate, with national total/non-hydropower renewable energy consumption responsibility weights achieving 32.0%/18.1%, up by 0.4/2.2 percentage points year-on-year [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Key Events and Industry Views - The report highlights the completion of consumption responsibility weights and the flexibility in target setting across provinces, indicating a rational approach to energy consumption [2][8]. - The Energy Law is seen as a foundational step for sustainable development in renewable energy, filling a gap in the energy regulatory framework [3][7]. 2. Market Review - From November 4 to November 8, 2024, the electricity sector saw a modest increase of 1.38%, while the gas sector rose by 5.59%. The overall market performance was positive, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 5.50% [14][15]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining an "Overweight" rating, with specific recommendations for various segments: - Hydropower: Focus on high-quality large hydropower projects, recommending companies like Yangtze Power and Sichuan Investment Energy [12]. - Thermal Power: Select companies with advantageous locations and attractive dividends, recommending Guodian Power and Shenneng Shares [12]. - Nuclear Power: Highlighting the long-term return potential, recommending China General Nuclear Power and China Nuclear Power [12]. - Renewable Energy: Waiting for policy-driven improvements, recommending Yunnan Energy Investment for its high wind power ratio [12]. - Gas: Focusing on companies with improving free cash flow and dividend value, recommending China Resources Gas [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the chemical industry, reflecting a positive outlook due to the acceleration of debt resolution policies and the potential benefits from declining crude oil prices [4][6]. Core Insights - The introduction of a 10 trillion yuan local debt resolution policy is expected to stimulate economic recovery, benefiting related sectors. The report recommends leading cyclical companies with resilient performance and long-term growth potential, as well as new material leaders with stable demand growth [6][11]. - The outcome of the U.S. elections is anticipated to strengthen expectations for declining crude oil prices, which could benefit related fine chemical products [6][11]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - During the week of November 4-8, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 5.51%, the ChiNext Index increased by 9.32%, and the basic chemical index (CI005006) gained 6.96%, ranking 11th among 30 sectors [9][10]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended cyclical growth leaders include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Yangnong Chemical, Longbai Group, Yuanxing Energy, and Xingfa Group. Beneficiary stocks include Chuanheng Co. and Yuntianhua. New material leaders recommended are Ruifeng New Materials, Bluestar Technology, and Guoci Materials [12][26]. - For beneficiaries of declining oil prices, recommended stocks include Juhua Co., Jinhe Industrial, Dongyue Group for refrigerants, and Garden Biotech, New and Chengdu Pharmaceutical for vitamins [12][26]. Key Company Tracking - **Wanhua Chemical**: Q3 performance was below expectations, with revenue of 147.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, and a net profit of 11.093 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.67% [14][15]. - **Hualu Hengsheng**: Q3 performance met expectations, with revenue of 25.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.16%, and a net profit of 3.049 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.16% [19][20]. - **Juhua Co.**: Maintained an "Overweight" rating, with Q3 revenue of 5.826 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.53%, but a net profit increase of 64.76% [21][22]. - **Sailun Tire**: Q3 performance met expectations, with net profit of approximately 3.21-3.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58.52%-61.98% [24][25]. Important Sub-Industry Tracking - The new materials sector is viewed positively, particularly for companies with high growth potential and technological advantages, such as Bluestar Technology and Ruifeng New Materials [26][27].