[table_Authors] 秦和平(分析师) 钟吉芸(研究助理) 0755-23976666 0755-23976666 qinheping027734@gtjas.com zhongjiyun029768@gtjas.com 登记编号S0880523110003 S0880124060021 证 券 研 究 报 告 国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.11.03 云厂商资本开支展望积极，AI 赋能逐步落地 [Table_Industry] 海外科技 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 ——海外科技行业 2024 年第 64 期 [Table_subIndustry] 细分行业评级 [Table_Report] 相关报告 本报告导读： 云厂商资本开支展望积极，AI 赋能逐步落地。xAI 正在寻求融资，估值有望突破 400 亿美元。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 大盘行情上，（2024.10.27-2024.11.02）恒生指数下 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel sector, consistent with the previous rating [1]. Core Viewpoints - The steel sector is currently at a bottoming phase, with expectations for demand improvement and supply restructuring, leading to enhanced competitive advantages for industry leaders [2]. - Recent government policies are expected to continue boosting demand expectations, with mergers and acquisitions likely accelerating in the industry [5]. Summary by Sections Steel Market Overview - The apparent consumption of major steel products was 8.917 million tons, a decrease of 0.23% week-on-week and a year-on-year decline of 7.71% [12]. - The total inventory of major steel products decreased, with social inventory at 8.2795 million tons, down 0.2018 million tons week-on-week [9][11]. Production and Profitability - The production of steel decreased to 8.6728 million tons, a week-on-week decline of 0.133 million tons [20]. - The simulated profit for rebar production increased to 308.6 CNY/ton, up 36.8 CNY/ton week-on-week, while hot-rolled coil profit rose to 208.6 CNY/ton, an increase of 26.8 CNY/ton [23]. Raw Materials - Iron ore spot prices decreased slightly, while futures prices increased, indicating a mixed market [27]. - The port inventory of iron ore rose to 154.1998 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.51% [31]. Industry Dynamics - The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills increased to 82.44%, a rise of 0.30 percentage points week-on-week [15]. - The profitability rate of steel companies was reported at 61.04%, down 3.9 percentage points from the previous week [15].

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.11.03 [table_Authors] 刘越男(分析师) 庄子童(分析师) 021-38677706 021-38032683 liuyuenan@gtjas.com zhuangzitong026312@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880516030003 S0880524070002 行 业 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 股 票 研 究 ——商社行业周报（2024.10.28-11.3） [Table_Report] 相关报告 投资要点： 政策预期继续加码，免签政策推进 [Table_Industry] 旅游业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 旅游业《整合序幕拉开，旅游资产重估》 2024.10.27 旅游业《发布会稳经济政策频出，关注三季报确 定性》2024.10.20 旅游业《国庆假期量超预期，价同比提升》 2024.10.08 旅游业《政策落地超预期，顺周期加速修复》 2024.09. ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industrial gas sector [3] Core Viewpoints - The prices of bulk gases such as oxygen, nitrogen, and argon have risen for four consecutive weeks, indicating a positive trend that gas manufacturers are expected to benefit from [3][4] - Rare gases like neon, krypton, xenon, and helium have remained stable on a weekly basis [4] Summary by Relevant Sections Bulk Gases - As of November 2, 2024, the average prices for bulk gases are as follows: - Liquid oxygen: 425.9 RMB/ton, with a weekly increase of 4.3% and a monthly increase of 17.6% [4][7] - Liquid nitrogen: 446.2 RMB/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.9% and a monthly increase of 10.3% [4][7] - Liquid argon: 660.5 RMB/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.9% and a monthly increase of 13.7% [4][7] Rare Gases - As of November 2, 2024, the average prices for rare gases are as follows: - Neon: 115 RMB/m³, stable on a weekly basis, with a monthly decrease of 4.2% [4][7] - Krypton: 330 RMB/m³, stable on a weekly basis, with no monthly change [4][7] - Xenon: 29,500 RMB/m³, stable on a weekly basis, with a monthly decrease of 3.3% [4][7] - Helium (40L bottle): 633.5 RMB/bottle, stable on a weekly basis, with a monthly decrease of 0.6% [4][7] Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the prices of bulk gases will continue to recover, while rare gas prices are expected to remain relatively stable. The recovery in demand from downstream industries, particularly in steel production, is expected to support this trend [4][6]

| --- | |-------| | | | | | | | --- | |-------| | | | | | | 证 券 研 究 报 告 国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------|---------------|------------------------------------------------------| | | 股票研究 /[ | Table_Date] 2024.11.02 \n[Table_Industry] 公用事业 | | [Table_Invest] 评级： | | 增持 | | | 上次评级 : | 增持 | 用电需求增势强劲，多措并举护航消纳 ——公用事业行业周报（2024.10.28-2024.11.1） | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------------------|--------------------- ...

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 本报告导读： [Table_Market] 交易数据 投资要点： [Table_PicQuote] 52周股价走势图 一心堂 深证成指 -49% -35% -21% -8% 6% 19% 2023-11 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------|-------|-------|-------| | [Table_Trend] 升幅 (%) | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 绝对升幅 | -2% | 9% | -32% | | 相对指数 | -2% | -11% | -39% | [Table_Report] 短期利润承压，未来有望改善 一心堂(002727) [Table_Industry] 医药/必需消费 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|------ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the home appliance subsidy has shown significant results, and the policies for home furnishings and two-wheeled vehicles are expected to drive industry growth, with leading companies' valuations and performance elasticity being promising [3][5]. Summary by Sections Home Appliance and U.S. Consumption Stimulus Review - The previous home appliance replacement policy cycle from 2007 to 2023 included initiatives like "Home Appliances Going to the Countryside," "Energy-Saving Benefits for the People," and "Old for New," which collectively boosted domestic appliance consumption [8]. - The report notes that the core categories of home appliances saw significant growth in sales volume during the last policy cycle, with air conditioners and refrigerators experiencing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16% from 2008 to 2013 [9]. Home Furnishings and Two-Wheeled Vehicles Replacement - The current home furnishings and two-wheeled vehicle replacement policy involves a total funding of approximately 1,500 billion yuan, aimed at various sectors including home appliances and electric bicycles [13][14]. - The report estimates that the replacement subsidies could drive terminal sales of 1,905 billion yuan for home furnishings and 952 billion yuan for two-wheeled vehicles, corresponding to a 27% and 26% increase in terminal sales scale for 2023 [16][17]. Home Furnishings: Margin of Safety and Performance Improvement Expectations - The report indicates that the valuation recovery in the home furnishings sector is closely linked to real estate policies, with historical data showing a strong correlation between new construction starts and valuation trends [20][22]. - The report emphasizes that the home furnishings sector has seen a significant improvement in terminal sales since the implementation of the replacement policy, with a notable increase in retail sales growth [16][28]. Two-Wheeled Vehicles: Policy Resonance and Supply-Demand Optimization - The two-wheeled vehicle sector is expected to benefit from the new national standards and replacement policies in 2025, which will enhance terminal demand and optimize market structure [5][20]. - The report suggests that leading brands in the two-wheeled vehicle market are well-prepared to capitalize on the anticipated industry recovery [5][20].

Investment Rating - The report rates the cosmetics industry as "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The cosmetics sector experienced a slight revenue increase year-on-year in Q3 2024, but profits declined, indicating a growing divergence among brands. Strong brands continue to show high growth potential, particularly domestic brands [3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - In Q3 2024, the cosmetics retail sales decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, reflecting a seasonal downturn. The overall retail sales for cosmetics from January to September 2024 showed a decline of 1%, which is 4.3 percentage points lower than the overall retail growth rate [7][8] 2. Q3 Financial Reports - The overall performance of the cosmetics sector was weak, with Q3 revenue slightly increasing by 0.5% year-on-year to 10.2 billion, while net profit fell by 24% to 800 million. For the first three quarters of 2024, the sector achieved revenues of 34.9 billion and net profits of 3.9 billion, reflecting year-on-year increases of 5.6% and 4.26% respectively [9][10] 3. Fund Holdings - The average holding ratio of domestic institutions in A-share cosmetics companies decreased to 5.99% in Q3 2024, down 3.59 percentage points from the previous quarter. In contrast, the holding ratio in Hong Kong stocks increased, particularly for companies like Giant Biological and Shumei [17][19] 4. Industry Valuation - The PE valuation for the cosmetics sector in 2024 is generally between 25-30x, with some small and mid-cap companies showing growth premiums. The report suggests that the current configuration of the sector presents significant investment value, especially with expected growth rates of 20-30% for many companies [21]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight" [2] Core Viewpoints - The overall net profit of listed securities firms in the first three quarters of 2024 met expectations, but investment performance is limited due to reduced directional exposure in equities. The rotation of market conditions reaffirms the advantages of comprehensive leading firms, suggesting an overweight position on top-tier securities firms with merger expectations [2][3] Summary by Sections 1. Performance Overview - In the first three quarters of 2024, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed securities firms decreased by 5.93% year-on-year, totaling 103.45 billion yuan. The decline in profit is primarily due to a 6.13% year-on-year drop in adjusted revenue, which amounted to 299.56 billion yuan. The net profit margin slightly increased by 0.07 percentage points to 34.53% [7][8][11] 2. Driving Factors - The overall performance of various business segments faced pressure, with only investment performance supporting the overall results. Investment business revenue increased by 24.35% year-on-year to 110.93 billion yuan, contributing 138.21% to the change in adjusted revenue. Other segments, including brokerage, investment banking, asset management, and credit business, faced declines [11][19][20] 3. Competitive Landscape - The concentration of the industry has strengthened, with the top five listed securities firms accounting for 48.55% of the total net profit, an increase of 5.24 percentage points year-on-year. Leading firms with strong comprehensive capabilities are better positioned to navigate market style rotations [25][27] 4. Investment Recommendations - It is recommended to overweight top-tier securities firms with merger and restructuring expectations, specifically highlighting China Galaxy and CITIC Securities as potential investment opportunities [2][3][29]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][4]. Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 revenue met expectations, but profits are under short-term pressure due to increased price discounts and heightened promotional efforts targeting small B-end customers. The company is actively maintaining market share and expanding channels, with expectations for gradual recovery [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.364 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.70%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 82 million yuan, down 13.49% year-on-year. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 81 million yuan, a decrease of 1.25% year-on-year. In Q3 2024 alone, revenue was 472 million yuan, down 1.17% year-on-year, with a net profit of 22 million yuan, down 42.08% year-on-year [4]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for Q3 2024 remained stable at 22.4%. Despite price declines in large B-end products, cost reductions partially offset this impact, leading to a slight decrease in gross margin. The small B-end benefited from new product launches, resulting in a slight margin increase [4]. Market Strategy - The company is focusing on new product launches to drive sales growth and optimize product structure. In Q3 2024, the company successfully introduced new products in the small B-end market. The strategy includes actively expanding channel customers and stabilizing market share, with increased price discounts and enhanced promotion of new categories [4]. Earnings Forecast - The EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised down to 1.18 yuan (-0.30), 1.46 yuan (-0.25), and 1.81 yuan (-0.27) respectively. The target price has been raised to 36.60 yuan, based on a 25x PE for 2025, reflecting the company's strong recovery potential and future growth prospects in the industry [4].