Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [4][35]. Core Insights - The non-bank financial sector index increased by 2.6%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.3 percentage points, with notable gains in brokerage and insurance indices [5][15]. - The new insurance asset risk classification regulations are expected to enhance risk management and asset quality, promoting high-quality development in the industry [3][31]. - The upcoming "opening red" for 2025, focusing on dividend insurance products, is anticipated to stabilize growth and improve product value [3][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The non-bank financial index rose by 2.6%, with the brokerage index up by 3.35% and the insurance index up by 0.54% [5][15]. - Average daily trading volume for stock funds was 17,332 billion, a decrease of 9.2% week-on-week [27][26]. 2. Market Data Tracking - Margin trading balance reached 1.84 trillion, with a slight increase of 0.6% week-on-week [26]. - The average turnover rate for the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 1.13%, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was 3.49% [27]. 3. Industry News - The Financial Regulatory Bureau and other departments issued guidelines to enhance agricultural insurance management and claims processes [31]. - The new insurance asset risk classification method expands the scope of asset risk classification and improves standards for fixed-income and equity assets [31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" rating for the power equipment and renewable energy sectors, indicating a cautious outlook on investment opportunities in these industries [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in the photovoltaic (PV) and wind power sectors, with specific attention to the stabilization of prices and an increase in demand for equipment [5][24]. - The photovoltaic sector is expected to see a gradual balance in supply and demand for silicon materials, while the wind power sector is experiencing a rise in bidding prices for onshore and offshore projects [6][8][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Highlights - **Photovoltaic Sector**: - Silicon material prices are slightly decreasing, with a forecast of supply-demand balance restoration. The number of companies in maintenance or reduced production is 15, with one company starting to reduce output [22]. - Silicon wafer prices remain stable, with a slight decrease in production in November. Inventory levels have notably decreased, and several manufacturers plan to increase production in December [6][22]. - Battery cell prices are stable, with a reported operating rate of 58.92% in November, and a 6.93% increase in total production compared to the previous month [22]. - Component prices are stable, with expectations of a 7-8% decrease in production in December due to year-end delivery schedules [22]. - **Wind Power Sector**: - Onshore wind power bidding has seen approximately 175 MW of new bids, with average bidding prices for complete units stabilizing around 1739 CNY/kW [24]. - Offshore wind projects are accelerating, with significant progress in projects in Shandong and Guangdong provinces, indicating a reduction in limiting factors for development [9][10]. - The report anticipates continued demand for wind power equipment, with a positive outlook for the performance of manufacturers in the sector [10]. 2. Market Performance - The report notes that the photovoltaic equipment sector rose by 4.25%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.93 percentage points, while the wind power equipment sector increased by 9.57%, surpassing the CSI 300 index by 8.25 percentage points [5][33]. 3. Recommendations - **Photovoltaic Sector**: - Companies like Fulete are recommended due to their cost advantages and improved cash flow, which are expected to enhance their market position as industry capacity clears [7][23]. - **Wind Power Sector**: - Companies such as Daikin Heavy Industries and Oriental Cable are highlighted for their strong positions in offshore wind projects, with expectations of benefiting from the rapid development of offshore wind energy [29].

Economic Indicators - November manufacturing PMI increased to 50.3%, up from 50.1% in October[1] - Non-manufacturing PMI slightly decreased to 50.0%, down from 50.2% in October[1] Supply and Demand - Production index rose to 52.4%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points month-on-month[3] - New orders index reached 50.8%, the first time above the threshold since April, with a month-on-month increase of 0.8 percentage points[3] Price Trends - Main raw material purchase price index fell to 49.8%, down 3.6 percentage points, indicating contraction[4] - Factory price index decreased to 47.7%, down 2.2 percentage points, also in contraction territory[4] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2%, indicating strong performance in new economic drivers[4] - Equipment manufacturing PMI remained stable at 51.3%, maintaining above the threshold for four consecutive months[4] Risks and Outlook - Risks include potential unexpected declines in overseas demand and slower-than-expected implementation of growth policies[5] - December meetings are anticipated to provide additional insights on monetary and fiscal policies[2]

晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Report] [Table_Reportdate] 2024年11月29日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20241129 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 于卓楠 S0630524100001 yzn@longone.com.cn [table_main] 重点推荐 ➢ 1.永臻股份（603381）：技术规模铸竞争优势，边框龙头迎长期成长——公司深度报告 ➢ 2.石化周期已达底部，左侧布局正当时——石油石化行业深度报告 财经要闻 ➢ 1.中办、国办发布数字贸易改革创新发展的意见，大力发展数字技术贸易 ➢ 2.习近平在中华全国供销合作总社成立70周年之际作出重要指示 ➢ 3.美国10月核心PCE物价指数同比升2.8% 符合预期 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Key Recommendations - The petrochemical cycle has reached its bottom, making it an opportune time for left-side positioning in the oil and petrochemical industry [7][9] - Tax rebate adjustments have stimulated shipments, stabilizing the prices of complete wind power units in the new energy power sector [11][12] - Initial policy effects have led to a slight improvement in industrial enterprise profits for October 2024 [20][21] Petrochemical Industry Insights - Historical analysis indicates that the petrochemical cycle typically lasts about 7 years, with extreme events causing short-term downturns without altering the cycle's logic [7] - China's new ethylene capacity is expected to hold a global cost advantage, with average cash costs projected at approximately $688 per ton by 2027 under a Brent oil price scenario of $65 per barrel [8] - The current petrochemical cycle is believed to have bottomed out, with expectations for a recovery phase beginning in the second half of next year as global demand improves [9] New Energy Sector Analysis - The photovoltaic equipment sector saw a decline of 4.68% during the week of November 18-22, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.08 percentage points [12] - The wind power sector experienced a 2.18% decline but outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.42 percentage points [12] - The adjustment of tax rebates is expected to enhance shipment rates, with upstream silicon wafer production showing signs of improvement [13] Industrial Profit Data - In October 2024, industrial enterprise profits showed a cumulative year-on-year decline but improved from -27.1% to -10.0%, aided by a low base and improved profit margins [20][21] - The profit margin for October rose to 5.4%, with industrial added value increasing by 5.3% year-on-year [21][22] - The equipment manufacturing sector continues to show a high profit share, indicating a stable performance in the midstream segment [22]

Group 1: Profit Performance - In October 2024, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, compared to a previous decline of 3.5%[1] - The monthly profit year-on-year improved from -27.1% to -10.0%, driven by a low base and improved profit margins[2] - The profit margin for October rose to 5.4%, slightly down from 6.3% to 6.2% year-on-year, indicating reduced drag on profitability[3] Group 2: Inventory and Demand - By the end of October, nominal inventory increased by 3.9% year-on-year, down from 4.6% in the previous period, reflecting faster inventory consumption[4] - Actual inventory growth also decreased to 6.8% year-on-year from 7.4%, suggesting improved expectations and accelerated inventory turnover[4] - The industrial added value for October showed a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, indicating stable production levels[3] Group 3: Sector Analysis - The profit share of midstream equipment manufacturing rose to 28.0%, reflecting policy support for equipment upgrades and advantages in the industrial chain[3] - Upstream raw material extraction profits decreased to 16.9%, while midstream raw material manufacturing remained stable at 17.9%[3] - Downstream profit share continued to decline, currently at 25.8%, indicating ongoing challenges in that sector[3] Group 4: Risks and Outlook - Potential risks include policy implementation falling short of expectations and demand recovery not meeting forecasts[5] - The upcoming political bureau meeting and economic work conference in December may provide additional policy insights and market dynamics[2]

Group 1: Key Recommendations - Yongzhen Co., Ltd. (603381) is positioned as a leader in the photovoltaic frame market, with a focus on technology and scale to enhance competitive advantages, expecting long-term growth [8][9][10] - Nvidia's Blackwell chip shows strong demand, with a 94% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3, indicating robust support for future revenue growth [14][15] Group 2: Financial Performance - Yongzhen Co., Ltd. achieved a revenue of 5.391 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 4.05%, and a net profit of 371 million yuan, up 50.74% [8] - In the first three quarters of 2024, Yongzhen Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 5.735 billion yuan, a 47.07% increase year-on-year, but a net profit decline of 29.35% to 178 million yuan [8] Group 3: Market Trends and Opportunities - The global photovoltaic aluminum frame market is expected to reach a demand of 3.19 million tons by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.88% from 2023 to 2026 [9] - Yongzhen Co., Ltd. is expanding its production capacity to 690,000 tons and is investing in recycled aluminum to reduce costs and enhance profitability [9][10] - The IC China 2024 event highlighted the recovery of the semiconductor market, with expectations of a 15% to 20% growth in the global semiconductor industry this year [16] Group 4: Investment Suggestions - Yongzhen Co., Ltd. is expected to achieve revenues of 8.541 billion, 12.580 billion, and 16.814 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding net profits of 197 million, 379 million, and 637 million yuan [10] - The report suggests focusing on AIOT, AI-driven sectors, and the semiconductor supply chain for potential investment opportunities [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" rating for the petrochemical sector, indicating a neutral outlook for investment opportunities in the industry [3]. Core Insights - The petrochemical cycle is believed to have reached its bottom, with expectations of a recovery phase beginning in the second half of the following year as global demand improves [5]. - The report highlights that the average cash cost of newly built or upgraded ethylene capacity in China is projected to be around $688 per ton by 2027, positioning it favorably on the cost curve compared to global peers [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, suggesting that a rate cut typically signals the bottom of a petrochemical cycle [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Review of Petrochemical Cycle - The petrochemical cycle typically spans about seven years, with extreme events causing short-term downturns without altering the overall cycle logic [23]. - Major negative events during downturns can accelerate the cycle, leading to the clearing of outdated capacities and hastening the onset of recovery [23]. - The report notes that the trend of de-globalization has led to a divergence in regional indices and oil price movements [23]. 2. Current Trends in the Refining Industry - Global refining capacity is projected to grow, with 2023 figures showing a capacity of 10349.8 million barrels per day, reflecting a year-on-year increase [29]. - The report indicates that while new refining projects are anticipated, the overall demand for traditional petrochemical products may not keep pace with capacity growth, leading to potential oversupply [33]. - The refining industry is expected to enter a slow growth phase, with significant capacity increases anticipated primarily in the Asia-Pacific and Middle East regions [36]. 3. Ethylene Production Landscape - The global ethylene production capacity has been on an upward trend, with Asia and North America being the primary contributors to this growth [54]. - The report forecasts that North America's ethylene production growth will slow down, with only a modest increase expected by 2030 [59]. - China's ethylene production is expected to benefit from lower operational costs and technological advancements, positioning it as a potential leader in the global ethylene market [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" rating for the power equipment and renewable energy sector, indicating a cautious outlook on investment opportunities in this industry [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a steady growth in electric vehicle demand and a high growth rate in the energy storage market, suggesting potential investment opportunities in battery and storage sectors [3]. - The adjustment of export tax rates is expected to drive shipments in the photovoltaic sector, while upstream silicon wafer production is showing signs of improvement [5][20]. - The report notes that the wind power sector is experiencing an increase in bidding and construction activities, particularly in offshore wind projects, which could catalyze growth in this segment [23][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Highlights - **Photovoltaic Sector**: The report indicates that the photovoltaic equipment sector has seen a decline of 4.68% in the past week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.08 percentage points. Key stocks in this sector include Suzhou Gohigh, Hengxing Technology, and Tuojin New Energy, which showed positive performance [4][32]. - **Wind Power Sector**: The wind power equipment sector declined by 2.18%, slightly outperforming the CSI 300 index. Notable stocks include Hezhong Electric, Sany Heavy Energy, and Zhenjiang Co., which performed well during this period [4][32]. 1.1 Photovoltaic Sector - **Silicon Material**: Prices remain stable, but inventory pressures are evident. Despite production cuts, the supply-demand relationship has not fundamentally improved, leading to a potential softening of silicon prices [20][21]. - **Silicon Wafer**: Production is improving due to demand mismatches and overseas demand. However, battery manufacturers are still facing losses, and prices are expected to remain stable in the short term [20][21]. - **Battery Cells**: The operating rate for battery production in November was 58.92%, with a 6.93% increase in total output. Export tax rate adjustments are prompting manufacturers to accelerate deliveries [20][21]. - **Modules**: Prices are stable, but manufacturers are under pressure due to a lack of significant installation peaks this year. The report anticipates a decline in module production as demand weakens [21][22]. 1.2 Wind Power Sector - **Onshore Wind**: Bidding for onshore wind power units reached approximately 2433.6 MW, with a steady increase in bidding and opening sizes supporting annual installation growth. Average bidding prices for complete units are stabilizing [23][24]. - **Offshore Wind**: The report notes significant progress in offshore wind project construction, particularly in coastal provinces, which is expected to catalyze overall growth in the wind power sector [24][25]. - **Market Dynamics**: The report suggests that the overall demand for offshore wind is strong, with opportunities for domestic products in international markets, enhancing the performance of component manufacturers [25][26]. 4. Industry Data Tracking - **Price Trends**: The report includes various price trends for key materials in the photovoltaic and wind power sectors, indicating stability in prices for silicon materials, wafers, and battery cells, while also tracking fluctuations in component prices [45][46].

晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Report] [Table_Reportdate] 2024年11月26日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20241126 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 于卓楠 S0630524100001 yzn@longone.com.cn [table_main] 重点推荐 ➢ 1.电车需求稳步增长，储能市场增速较高——电池及储能行业周报（20241118-20241124） ➢ 2.基本面筑底，静待政策催化——食品饮料行业周报（2024/11/18-2024/11/24） ➢ 3.宽基ETF费率下调，2025险企"开门红"启动——非银金融行业周报（20241118- 20241124） 财经要闻 ➢ 1.李强同第二届中国国际供应链促进博览会参展参会企业代表座谈 ➢ 2.中国人民银行等九部门联合召开科技创新和技术改造贷款工作推进会议 ➢ 3.央行开展9000亿元中期借贷便利操作 ➢ 4.特朗普计划向美国国会寻求资金以补充战略石油储备 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 | --- | |-- ...