行 业 研 究 汽 车 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年11月25日 行 业 周 报 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 黄涵虚 S0630522060001 hhx@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -37% -25% -14% -3% 9% 20% 31% 23-11 24-02 24-05 24-08 申万行业指数:汽车(0728) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.智能化与高端化并进，构建全球竞 争力——汽车零部件行业研究框架 专题报告 政策有望推出 [table_invest] 标配 [Table_NewTitle 乘用车零售维持高增速，以旧换新接续 ] ——汽车行业周报（2024/11/18-2024/11/24） [table_main] 投资要点： ➢ 本周汽车板块行情表现：本周沪深300环比下跌2.60%；汽车板块整体下跌2.17%，在31个 行业中排第20。细分行业中，（1）整车：综合乘用车、商用载货车、商用载客车子板块分 别变动-2.76%、-3.02%、-3.10%。（2）汽车零部件：车身附件及饰件、底盘 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3]. Core Views - The company is a leader in the photovoltaic frame sector, with continuous expansion in operational scale and a strong competitive advantage due to its technological capabilities [3][4]. - The global demand for photovoltaic aluminum frames is expected to grow significantly, driven by the increasing installation of solar power systems [4][63]. - The company is expanding its production capacity and is focusing on cost reduction through upstream integration into recycled aluminum [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company, established in August 2016, focuses on the research, production, and sales of green energy structural materials, primarily photovoltaic frames, BIPV products, and photovoltaic support structures [22][24]. - It has become one of the leading manufacturers of aluminum photovoltaic structural components in China, with a successful IPO on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in June 2024 [22][24]. 2. Market Demand and Growth - The global photovoltaic installation capacity continues to grow, with a 69.57% increase in 2023, leading to a sustained demand for aluminum frames [63]. - The report forecasts that the global demand for photovoltaic aluminum frames will reach 319 million tons by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.88% from 2023 to 2026 [4][63]. 3. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 5.391 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.05%, and a net profit of 371 million yuan, up 50.74% [28]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 5.735 billion yuan, a 47.07% increase year-on-year, but a net profit decline of 29.35% [28]. 4. Production Capacity and Cost Management - The company is expanding its production capacity to 690,000 tons, with five major production bases in China and Vietnam, which will enhance its scale advantages [4][5]. - The integration into recycled aluminum production is expected to significantly reduce material costs and improve profit margins [4][5]. 5. Product Diversification - The company is diversifying its product offerings by entering the BIPV and photovoltaic support structure markets, which will enhance its resilience against market fluctuations [5][30]. - In 2023, the revenue contributions from BIPV and support structures were 557,710 yuan and 1.45 billion yuan, respectively, indicating the initial formation of a product matrix [5][30]. 6. Future Projections - The report projects revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 8.541 billion yuan, 12.580 billion yuan, and 16.814 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 196.64 million yuan, 378.72 million yuan, and 637.11 million yuan [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [5][33]. Core Insights - The non-bank financial index experienced a decline of 3.6% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 by 1 percentage point, with both brokerage and insurance indices showing synchronized declines of -2.89% and -4.89% respectively [5][16]. - The average daily trading volume of stock funds was 1.9087 trillion yuan, a decrease of 21.2% week-on-week, indicating a slowdown in market activity [5][23]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized five key areas for capital market reform, including enhancing investment value and promoting cross-border cooperation [6][28]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The non-bank financial index fell by 3.6%, with the brokerage index down by 2.9% and the insurance index down by 4.9% [5][16]. - The average daily trading volume of stock funds decreased to 1.9087 trillion yuan, reflecting a significant drop in market activity [5][23]. 2. Market Data Tracking - The margin trading balance was 1.83 trillion yuan, slightly down by 0.2% from the previous week, indicating a stable but cautious market environment [5][23]. - The stock pledge market value was 2.81 trillion yuan, which also saw a decrease of 1.9% week-on-week [5][23]. 3. Industry News - Major insurance companies have initiated their 2025 "New Year" strategies, focusing on flexible product offerings and enhancing customer retention through innovative payment methods [7][28]. - The restructuring of brokerages is accelerating, with significant mergers and acquisitions expected to create competitive advantages for stronger firms [6][8]. 4. Investment Recommendations - For brokerages, the report suggests focusing on mergers and acquisitions, high asset returns, and improving return on equity (ROE) as key investment themes [8]. - In the insurance sector, attention is drawn to large comprehensive insurance companies that possess competitive advantages under the new regulatory framework [8].

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|---------------------------------------|-------|----------------------------------------------------------------------|----------|-------|-----------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 电子化学品国产化加速，聚焦核心竞争力 | | | | | 证券分析师：吴骏燕 证券分析师：张晶磊 | | 2024 年 执 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the food and beverage industry as "Overweight" [1]. Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 4.08% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.48 percentage points, ranking 30th among 31 sectors [1]. - The report highlights the need for policy catalysts to stimulate demand, particularly in the liquor segment, where production has been declining [2]. - The beer sector is expected to see a recovery in consumption scenarios due to improving costs and potential policy support [3]. - The snack segment is benefiting from rapid revenue and profit growth, driven by channel expansion and declining raw material costs [4]. - The dairy sector is seeing positive demand trends, with an emphasis on product upgrades and direct-to-consumer (DTC) channel penetration [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The food and beverage sector's performance last week was a decline of 4.08%, with all sub-sectors also experiencing downturns. The top five gainers were Guifaxiang (+13.20%), *ST Xifa (+8.80%), BeiYinMei (+7.71%), BaiHe Co. (+7.14%), and Meihua Biological (+6.41%). The top five losers included Xiangpiaopiao (-16.73%), Jiajia Food (-12.37%), Qinghai Spring (-12.21%), Three Squirrels (-10.82%), and Bairun Co. (-10.44%) [1][25]. Liquor Industry - In October, the production of liquor in China decreased by 12.1% year-on-year, with a notable focus on the impact of policy changes on demand. New product launches by companies like Jinshiyuan aim to enhance brand strength in the mid-price segment [2]. Beer Industry - The beer production in October was 180.7 million liters, down 2.3% year-on-year. Despite a weak demand environment, cost improvements are expected to enhance profitability, and there is optimism for a recovery in consumption scenarios [3]. Snack and Dairy Segments - The snack sector showed strong revenue and profit growth in Q3, attributed to channel expansion and lower raw material costs. The dairy sector is also seeing positive trends, with a focus on health-oriented products and increasing acceptance of low-temperature dairy products [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-end liquor brands and regional leaders, with specific stock recommendations including Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao. For the beer sector, Qingdao Beer is highlighted as a core investment target. In the snack segment, companies like Yanjinpuzi and Ganyuan Foods are recommended, while for the dairy sector, New Dairy is noted for its product upgrades and DTC channel growth [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" rating for the electric equipment and new energy sector, indicating a neutral outlook on investment opportunities in this industry [3]. Core Insights - The electric vehicle (EV) demand is steadily increasing, with the expected retail sales of new energy vehicles reaching 1.28 million units in November, translating to a penetration rate of approximately 53.3%. The overall market for new energy vehicles is projected to grow by 20.0% year-on-year, reaching 11.5 million units in 2024 [4][21]. - The supply side of the industry is undergoing orderly adjustments, leading to price stabilization across various materials, including lithium salts and battery components [22][4]. - The domestic energy storage market is experiencing high growth, with cumulative installed capacity reaching 23.42 GW/58.86 GWh by the end of October 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 118% [25][24]. Summary by Sections Battery Sector - **Market Performance**: The battery sector saw a slight decline of 0.71% in the week of November 18-24, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.89 percentage points. Major inflows were noted in companies like Shenghua New Materials and Putailai, while major outflows were observed in CATL and Shanghai Electric [29][3]. - **Demand Growth**: The demand for electric vehicles is supported by policies such as vehicle scrappage and trade-in programs, with new models launched at the Guangzhou Auto Show enhancing consumer interest [4][21]. - **Supply Adjustments**: The lithium salt market is characterized by ongoing price fluctuations, while the prices of cathode materials are stabilizing amid a supply surplus. The prices of anode materials remain close to cost levels, indicating limited downward potential [22][4]. Energy Storage Sector - **Tender Projects**: In the week ending November 22, 2024, there were 16 new tender projects in the energy storage market, with a total scale of 3.48 GW/13.57 GWh. The average winning bid for energy storage EPC projects was 1.13 yuan/Wh, showing a slight decrease [24][49]. - **Market Growth**: The energy storage market is maintaining a high growth rate, with new installations in October 2024 reaching 2.04 GW/5.50 GWh, marking a year-on-year increase of 236% [25][24]. - **Company Focus**: Companies like Sungrow Electric have established a full industry chain layout in energy storage, including upstream inverters and downstream power stations, positioning themselves favorably in the market [27][7]. Investment Recommendations - **CATL**: As a global leader in lithium batteries, CATL is expected to ship 480 GWh in 2024, with an estimated profit of 50.5 billion yuan. The company is increasing its self-supply ratio of lithium salts, which will support its production capacity [5][23]. - **Sungrow Electric**: The company is benefiting from the upgrade of power grid investment structures and has turned profitable, leveraging its advantages in the charging operation market [5][23].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the electronic sector, indicating a moderate recovery in demand and recommending focus on four main investment themes: AIOT, AI-driven technologies, equipment materials, and consumer electronics [3][8]. Core Insights - Nvidia reported a 94% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3, with a net profit increase of 100%. The Blackwell chip is expected to significantly support revenue growth in the upcoming quarters [4][20]. - The IC China 2024 event highlighted key themes such as AI industry transformation, semiconductor market recovery, and international cooperation within the semiconductor supply chain [5]. - The electronic industry is currently experiencing a mild recovery phase, with a recommendation to pay attention to specific sectors that are expected to benefit from technological advancements and market trends [3][8]. Summary by Sections Industry News - Nvidia's Q3 revenue reached $35.08 billion, up 94% year-on-year, with a net profit of $19.31 billion, marking a 109% increase. The demand for the Blackwell chip is described as "amazing," with shipments expected to accelerate in 2025 [20][21]. - The IC China 2024 event forecasted a 15% to 20% growth in the global semiconductor industry for the year, with the market size projected to exceed $600 billion [5]. - Huawei is set to launch its Mate 70 series on November 26, featuring significant upgrades in design and performance [20]. Market Performance - The report notes that the electronic sector underperformed the broader market, with the Shanghai Shenzhen 300 Index down 2.60% and the Shenwan Electronic Index down 3.29% [7][28]. - As of November 22, various sub-sectors within the electronic industry showed declines, including semiconductors (-2.86%) and consumer electronics (-3.93%) [28][29]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the following sectors: 1. AIOT sector, with companies like Lexin Technology and Hengxuan Technology. 2. AI innovation-driven sector, including computing chips and optical devices. 3. Domestic supply chain replacement in semiconductor equipment and materials. 4. Consumer electronics, which are expected to rebound [8].

晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Report] [Table_Reportdate] 2024年11月25日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20241125 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 张帆远 S0630524070002 zfy@longone.com.cn [table_main] 重点推荐 ➢ 1. 珠海航展显实力，特朗普效应影响国际市场——宏观双周报（20241111-20241122） ➢ 2. 黄金定价逻辑的变与不变——商品深度研究专题（一） 财经要闻 ➢ 1.李强主持召开国务院常务会议 研究推动平台经济健康发展有关工作 ➢ 2.稳外贸新举措 ➢ 3.国家数据局：到2029年基本建成国家数据基础设施主体结构 ➢ 4.特朗普拟选择美联储前理事凯文·沃什担任财政部长 ➢ 5.日本首相石破茂：政府将从一般账户中拨出13.9万亿日元用于经济刺激计划 ➢ 6.美国11月全球制造业PMI符合预期 ➢ 7.欧元区11月制造业PMI终值低于预期 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 | --- | --- | |--- ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [4] Core Insights - The short-term growth rate of the domestic automation equipment market is slowing down, with key sub-industries such as industrial robots facing price competition despite a 13.3% year-on-year increase in production from January to October 2024 [5][15] - Domestic leading companies are expected to expand overseas, supported by policies promoting automation and intelligent upgrades in manufacturing [6][21] - Companies like Estun and Huichuan Technology are actively pursuing international markets, with Estun's overseas revenue reaching 730 million yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [6][26] Summary by Sections Data Tracking - The average revenue growth rate in the automation equipment sector has slowed since 2021, with specific products like low-voltage inverters and PLCs showing a decline in market size in the first half of 2024 [5][15] - The average sales gross margin for the industrial robot sector has decreased from 35.0% in 2019 to 26.5% in Q3 2024, indicating pressure on profitability [5][15] Overseas Expansion of Domestic Automation Companies - Estun has established a global presence through multiple acquisitions, with 11 manufacturing bases and 75 service points worldwide, achieving significant growth in overseas revenue [21][24] - Huichuan Technology's overseas revenue grew from 340 million yuan in 2019 to 1.74 billion yuan in 2023, with a strong growth momentum and higher gross margins compared to domestic sales [26][29] Industry Dynamics - The machine tool industry experienced a revenue decline of 6.6% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, with significant drops in profitability [33] - Fixed asset investments in sectors like water conservancy and transportation equipment manufacturing have shown strong growth, influenced by policy support [19][20] Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.60%, while the machinery equipment sector outperformed with a decline of only 0.33%, ranking 6th among 31 sectors [36][37]

Group 1 - The report highlights that in October 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 453.96 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, exceeding the consensus expectation of 3.9% [10][11] - Urban and rural markets both showed growth, with urban retail sales at 392.55 billion yuan (up 4.7% year-on-year) and rural retail sales at 61.41 billion yuan (up 4.9% year-on-year) [10][11] - Online consumption growth outpaced offline, with online retail sales of goods and services increasing by 8.8% and 8.3% year-on-year respectively [10][11] Group 2 - The automotive parts industry is experiencing significant changes due to the acceleration of electric and intelligent vehicle trends, leading to a reshaping of customer structures [14][15] - Investment themes include the penetration of advanced driving technologies (L2.9) and the acceleration of L3/L4 industrialization, with a focus on related segments such as domain controllers and steer-by-wire systems [14][15] - The report suggests that the domestic supply chain is gaining a stronger position in the global market, driven by local suppliers expanding overseas and breaking the traditional dominance of multinational Tier 1 suppliers [15]