Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Bullish" outlook for the industry, indicating a potential increase in the Shanghai Composite Index by 20% or more within the next six months [86]. Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of tariff policies on oil prices, leading to significant fluctuations and a focus on self-sufficient petrochemical chain targets [1][5]. - It predicts that Brent crude oil prices will fluctuate between $55 and $80 per barrel in 2025, with a potential average price of $70 per barrel [9][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of integrated refining and chemical companies, suggesting that those with cost advantages will benefit from price recovery in the oil market [80][81]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Review and Outlook - Brent crude oil maintained a volatile upward trend, closing at around $74 per barrel at the end of March 2025. The OPEC+ countries are set to gradually ease production cuts starting in April [3]. - The report anticipates a V-shaped recovery in oil prices, with a range of $55 to $80 per barrel for the year [9][10]. Commodity, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates - The report notes a decrease in the U.S. dollar index, which fell by 3.16% to 104.2 in March 2025, indicating potential impacts on trade and currency stability [35]. - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was approximately 4.01% as of April 4, 2025, reflecting market expectations of economic slowdown [28]. Polyester Industry Chain - The report discusses the decline in prices across the polyester supply chain, with the naphtha-ethylene spread at $162 per ton, down $3 from the previous month [53]. - It highlights that the overall profit margin for the PX-PTA-polyester chain is approximately -136 yuan per ton, indicating a decrease in profitability [81]. Conclusion and Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on integrated refining and chemical companies with cost advantages, such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Tongkun Co., which are currently undervalued [81]. - It suggests that while short-term commodity prices may be under pressure due to trade tensions, the long-term outlook remains positive due to China's competitive advantages in the petrochemical industry [82].

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年04月08日 标配 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 吴骏燕 S0630517120001 wjyan@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 张晶磊 S0630524090001 zjlei@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -29% -19% -9% 1% 11% 20% 30% 24-04 24-07 24-10 25-01 申万行业指数:基础化工(0722) 沪深300 [Table_NewTitle] PPS，性价比突出的"塑料黄金" ——化工系列研究（二十四） [table_main] 投资要点： 究 行 业 深 度 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 行 业 研 基 础 化 工 [table_invest] [table_product] ➢ 聚苯硫醚PPS综合性能优异，应用领域广泛，2023年消费占比居六类特种工程塑料之首： PPS具有优良的耐高温 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The international oil price in 2025 may show a V-shaped trend. It is under short - and medium - term pressure but is expected to rebound from the bottom in the second half of the year, with an annual fluctuation range of $55 - 80 per barrel [3]. - It is recommended to focus on petrochemical chain targets with low valuations, complete industrial chains, and integrated cost advantages, such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Tongkun Co., Ltd. [81]. - In the face of Trump's tariff policy, there is an increased expectation of economic growth slowdown. Interest - rate bonds' safe - haven demand rises, and the RMB exchange rate is under short - term pressure, but the risk of large - scale unilateral depreciation is controllable. It is short - term bearish on commodities but optimistic about domestic consumption recovery and self - controllable industrial chains [82]. Summary by Directory 1. Oil Price Review and Outlook - **Price Trend**: In March 2025, Brent crude oil fluctuated upward and closed at around $74 per barrel at the end of the month. After Trump's tariff policy was announced in early April, the oil price dropped significantly [3]. - **Supply**: OPEC +'s additional 1.65 million barrels per day production cut agreement will be extended until the end of 2026, while the 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary production cut agreement will end at the end of April. The United States' oil production in the Gulf of Mexico will reach a record 2 million barrels per day [3]. - **Demand**: US refinery processing volume in March was at a low level, and commercial crude oil inventory was repaired but lower than the same period last year. China's crude oil consumption improved in January - February 2025, with a 2.1% year - on - year increase in the processing of above - scale industrial crude oil [3]. - **Prediction**: The oil price is expected to fluctuate between $55 - 80 per barrel in 2025. The supply increase by the end of this year will lead to inventory accumulation and put downward pressure on prices [3][8][9]. 2. Commodities, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates - **Interest Rates**: As of April 4, 2025, the yield of the US 10 - year Treasury bond was about 4.01% and declined again. The 10 - year - 2 - year US Treasury bond yield spread has basically ended the inversion, but there was an intensified inversion with the 3 - month Treasury bond in early April [28][34]. - **Exchange Rates**: In March, the US dollar index fluctuated downward, closing at 104.2, a 3.16% decline from the end of the previous month. The offshore RMB appreciated against the US dollar, closing at 7.27, a 0.39% appreciation from the end of the previous month [35]. - **Inflation**: In February, the US CPI increased by 2.8% year - on - year, lower than market expectations. The PPI increased by 3.2% year - on - year, with the smallest month - on - month increase since July last year [44]. - **Manufacturing PMI**: In March 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The US 3 - month ISM manufacturing PMI index was 49.0, showing the first contraction this year [3][48]. 3. Polyester Industry Chain - **Profit**: In March, the price of international crude oil continued to decline, driving down the prices of industrial chain products. The ethylene cracking spread from naphtha was $162 per ton, a $3 per ton decline from the previous month. The profit of the PX - PTA - polyester filament full industrial chain was about - 136 yuan per ton, a 39 - yuan per ton decrease from the previous month [53]. - **Supply and Demand**: The terminal textile and clothing orders were less than expected, and the inventory of polyester filament enterprises increased. The PTA industry was still in a loss state, and only leading or integrated enterprises could maintain positive cash flow [59][68]. - **Export**: From January to February 2025, the export of polyester filament increased, while the export of textile and clothing decreased [73]. 4. Conclusion and Investment Suggestions - **Petrochemical Enterprises**: Optimistic about petrochemical enterprises with low valuations, complete industrial chains, and integrated cost advantages, such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Tongkun Co., Ltd. [81]. - **Asset Allocation**: In terms of interest - rate bonds, the demand for safe - haven assets increases. In terms of commodities, short - term bearish due to the trade war, but the domestic petrochemical industry chain has cost - competitive advantages. In terms of equities, optimistic about domestic consumption recovery and self - controllable industrial chains [82].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Market Weight" indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a stable growth in tourism during the Qingming Festival, with domestic travel reaching 126 million trips, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, and tourism revenue of 57.549 billion yuan, up 6.7% [4]. - The report suggests that the tourism market is likely to continue its recovery due to increasing consumer travel willingness, favorable weather, and upcoming holidays such as Labor Day and Dragon Boat Festival [4]. - The report emphasizes the popularity of short trips and outdoor activities, with surrounding travel accounting for 40% of the market during the Qingming Festival [4]. Summary by Sections Tourism Data - During the Qingming Festival, domestic tourism saw 126 million trips, with a revenue of 57.549 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.3% and 6.7% increase respectively [4]. - Average spending per person during the three-day domestic travel was 456.74 yuan, showing a slight increase compared to the previous year [4]. Travel Trends - Short trips, flower viewing, and light outdoor activities are leading the tourism consumption trends, with nearly 50% of surrounding travel users opting for 2-3 day trips [4]. - International travel is also on the rise, with popular destinations including Japan, Indonesia, and Thailand, showing significant increases in order volumes [4]. Scenic Spots and Visitor Numbers - Notable scenic spots like Huangshan received over 95,000 visitors during the holiday, marking a 26% increase year-on-year [4]. - Shanghai welcomed 7.0027 million visitors, a 5.45% increase, while Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces reported significant growth in both visitor numbers and tourism revenue [4]. Movie Consumption - The box office performance during the Qingming Festival was disappointing, with total revenue of 378 million yuan, significantly lower than the previous year's 843 million yuan [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on OTA platforms, scenic spots, and hotels as beneficiaries of the anticipated tourism market recovery [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [35]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector showed a 1.20% increase in performance from March 31 to April 3, ranking third among 31 industries and outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.57 percentage points [11][16]. - Year-to-date, the sector has risen by 4.77%, ranking seventh among 31 industries and surpassing the CSI 300 index by 6.64 percentage points [16]. - The current PE valuation for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector stands at 27.2 times, which is at a historically low level, with a 130% premium compared to the CSI 300 index [20]. Market Performance - The top three sub-sectors in terms of growth last week were chemical pharmaceuticals (3.45%), traditional Chinese medicine II (1.53%), and pharmaceutical commerce (1.48%) [11]. - A total of 344 stocks (72.57% of the sector) experienced price increases last week, with the top five performers being Duorui Pharmaceutical (56.32%), Weisi Medical (31.80%), Hasanlian (31.15%), Rundu Co. (27.01%), and Shengnuo Biological (21.54%) [25][26]. Industry News - On April 4, the Ministry of Commerce announced investigations into the competitiveness of imported medical CT tubes and initiated anti-dumping investigations against imports from the United States and India [27][30]. - The investigations will assess the impact of these imports on the domestic industry and its competitiveness, covering the period from January 1, 2024, to December 31, 2024, for dumping and from January 1, 2022, to December 31, 2024, for industry damage [29][30]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as innovative drugs, medical services, and domestic market-oriented businesses, which are less affected by trade frictions [31]. - It highlights the potential for accelerated domestic substitution in high-end medical equipment and blood products due to ongoing tariff disputes [31]. - Recommended stocks include Beida Pharmaceutical, Laobaixing, Lingrui Pharmaceutical, Huaxia Eye Hospital, and Boya Biological, with additional stocks to watch being Tebao Biological, Kelun Pharmaceutical, International Medicine, Kaili Medical, and Nuotai Biological [32].

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年04月08日 超配 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 杜永宏 S0630522040001 dyh@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 ——医药生物行业周报（2025/3/31-2025/4/6） [table_main] 投资要点： ➢ 市场表现： 上周（3月31日-4月3日）医药生物板块整体上涨1.20%，在申万31个行业中排第3位, 跑赢沪深300指数2.57个百分点。年初至今，医药生物板块整体上涨4.77%，在申万31个 行业中排第7位，跑赢沪深300指数6.64个百分点。当前，医药生物板块PE估值为27.2倍， 处于历史中低位水平，相对于沪深300的估值溢价为130%。上周，子板块涨幅前三的为化 学制药(申万)、中药Ⅱ(申万)、医药商业(申万)，涨幅分别为3.45%、1.53%、1.48%。个股 方面，上周上涨的个股为344只（占比72.57%），涨幅前五的个股分别为多瑞医药 （56.32%）、伟思医疗（31.80%）、哈三联（31.15%）、润都股份（27.01%）、圣诺生物 （21.54%）。 伍可心 S0630522120001 ...

Group 1: Impact of Tariffs on Agricultural Products - The Chinese government announced a 34% tariff on all imported goods from the US, effective from April 10, 2025, following previous tariffs on specific agricultural products [7] - In 2024, China imported approximately $249 billion worth of agricultural products from the US, accounting for about 15% of total imports from the US and 12% of China's total agricultural imports [8] - The reliance on US imports is significant for certain products, with soybeans making up 48% of agricultural imports from the US, while cotton and sorghum have high dependency rates of 35% and 67% respectively [8][9] Group 2: Yangjie Technology (300373) Overview - Yangjie Technology reported a revenue of 6.033 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 11.53% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.002 billion yuan, up 8.50% year-on-year [12] - The company experienced a strong Q4 in 2024, achieving a revenue of 1.610 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.57%, and a net profit of 333 million yuan, reflecting a 36.47% quarter-on-quarter growth [13] - The demand for automotive electronics is robust, with a significant increase in orders, leading to a projected revenue growth of over 60% in this segment for 2024 [13][14] Group 3: Semiconductor Industry Insights - The US has imposed unexpected tariffs on Chinese imports, which may increase procurement costs for semiconductor components in the short term, but could accelerate domestic production in the long term [20] - The semiconductor industry is currently experiencing a mild recovery, with a focus on AIOT, AI-driven technologies, and consumer electronics as key investment themes [22] - The overall electronic sector has underperformed the market, with the semiconductor sub-sector showing a decline of 0.59% [21]

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年04月07日 [table_invest] 超配 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 3.劲仔食品（003000）：鱼制品势能 强劲，线下渠道稳健增长——公司简 评报告 [Table_NewTitle 关税波动加剧，重视内需改善 ] ——食品饮料行业周报（2025/3/31-2025/4/6） [table_main] 投资要点： ➢ 风险提示：宏观经济增长不及预期；竞争加剧的影响；食品安全的影响。 行 业 研 究 姚星辰 S0630523010001 yxc@longone.com.cn 联系人 吴康辉 wkh@longone.com.cn -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2024-03 2024-05 2024-07 2024-09 2024-11 2025-01 2025-03 食品饮料(申万) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.青岛啤酒（600600）：整装待发， 修复可期——公司简评报告 2.年报陆续发布，关注基本面表现— —食品饮料行业周报（2025/3/24- 2025/3/30） 证券研 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年04月07日 [table_invest] 超配 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 姚星辰 S0630523010001 yxc@longone.com.cn 联系人 吴康辉 wkh@longone.com.cn -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2024-03 2024-05 2024-07 2024-09 2024-11 2025-01 2025-03 食品饮料(申万) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.青岛啤酒（600600）：整装待发， 修复可期——公司简评报告 2.年报陆续发布，关注基本面表现— —食品饮料行业周报（2025/3/24- 2025/3/30） 3.劲仔食品（003000）：鱼制品势能 强劲，线下渠道稳健增长——公司简 评报告 [Table_NewTitle 关税波动加剧，重视内需改善 ] ——食品饮料行业周报（2025/3/31-2025/4/6） [table_main] 投资要点： ➢ 风险提示：宏观经济增长不及预期；竞争加剧的影响；食品安全的影响。 行 业 研 究 证券研 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" for the non-banking financial sector, indicating a positive outlook for the next six months [1][33]. Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of mergers and acquisitions in the brokerage sector, driven by the merger of Xiangcai and Dazhihui, which is expected to enhance business synergy and customer acquisition [4][31]. - The insurance sector is seeing an expansion in the scope of equity investments by insurance funds, which is anticipated to benefit both the new productive forces and the returns on insurance capital [4][31]. - The report emphasizes the importance of regulatory support for the development of private enterprises and the capital market, which is expected to foster high-quality companies and promote continuous reform [4][31]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-banking financial index fell by 1.3% last week, with the brokerage index down 1.8% and the insurance index down 0.7%, while the multi-financial index increased by 0.3% [8][9]. - The average daily trading volume for stock funds was 13,897 billion, a decrease of 7% week-on-week [17]. Brokerage Sector - The brokerage index's decline was offset by Xiangcai's significant increase of 21.8% due to merger expectations, which is expected to enhance customer acquisition and digital transformation [4][31]. - New A-share accounts reached 3.07 million in March, a year-on-year increase of 27%, indicating sustained market enthusiasm despite potential impacts from U.S. tariff policies [4][31]. Insurance Sector - The regulatory authority has expanded the scope of equity investments for insurance funds to include technology and modern agriculture, aligning with national strategic industries [4][31]. - The report predicts that the expansion of equity investments will lead to stable investment returns for insurance funds, enhancing overall yield expectations [4][31]. Investment Recommendations - For brokerages, the report suggests focusing on mergers and acquisitions, high financial ratios, and improving return on equity (ROE) as key investment themes [4][31]. - In the insurance sector, attention is recommended for large comprehensive insurance companies with competitive advantages under the new regulatory framework [4][31].