本季度，我们的基金表现依然较差，面临着前所未有的挑战。我们持有不少科创类的公司， 市场杀估值力度超出我们预计，这段时间的困难与痛苦前所未有，但是，我们仍会坚持我们 的选择和风格，也会不断优化和改进我们的持仓组合，希望不断通过企业的利润增长慢慢爬 出这轮成长股的低谷。 我们过去一直是相对乐观派，但是，这轮成长股熊市的长度和深度远超出我们预期，这对我 们的挑战也是前所未有的艰巨。我们投资的成长股的利润增长无法抵消估值下降，这轮成长 股的负 beta 实在太剧烈了，这也让我们投资成长股的短期胜率大幅度下降，现时的市场对 成长股的情绪也是前所未有的冰点。我们过去对市场风格的判断错误让组合吃尽苦头，哪怕 我们不断积极的调整，局部的胜利无法弥补整体的下行。现状已如此，不少真成长股的估值 也杀到原来难以想象的程度，我们只能争取一步一个脚印寻找真正高成长的个股，希望通过 这些优质成长股的高成长性一步步收复失地。 尽管当下我们体感并不太好，但是，我们不少的新兴产业的确正在崛起，全产业链优势的雏 形已现。尤其以我们的半导体产业为例，经过五年的打压之后不断加速前行，Mate60 的推 出更是说明了轻舟已过万重山。但是，现实中依然是 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than the market" rating for the traditional Chinese medicine industry, indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the market in the next six months [21]. Core Insights - The traditional Chinese medicine industry outperformed the market by 1.12 percentage points during the week of July 29 to August 2, 2024, with a 1.62% increase compared to a 0.50% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index and a 0.73% decrease in the CSI 300 [4][6]. - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the traditional Chinese medicine industry is 25.1X, down from a median of 30.60X since the beginning of 2023, indicating that the industry is still valued at a relatively low level [10]. - The PE ratio of the traditional Chinese medicine industry compared to the CSI 300 is currently at 2.17, which is below the median of 2.61, suggesting that the industry remains undervalued [10]. - The traditional Chinese medicine material price index decreased by 0.93% week-on-week, indicating a slight decline in material costs [13]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The traditional Chinese medicine industry outperformed the broader market by 1.12 percentage points during the specified week, with significant gains in the sector [4]. - The industry has shown a low valuation level, with the current PE ratio at 25.1X compared to a historical median of 30.60X [10]. Industry Dynamics - The report highlights the release of the "Guiding Opinions on Improving the Long-term Mechanism for Basic Medical Insurance Participation" by the State Council, which aims to enhance the basic medical insurance system [15]. - The National Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine introduced the "Standardization Action Plan for Traditional Chinese Medicine (2024-2026)" to improve standardization in the industry [15][16].

Group 1: Political Landscape and Election Dynamics - Trump's presidency marked a significant shift in U.S. politics, emphasizing nationalism and protectionism, which contributed to his electoral success[1] - Harris's political stance appears to align closely with Biden's, particularly in areas such as taxation, immigration, and clean energy[1] - As of July 2024, Harris's support in key swing states is uncertain, with polls indicating she lags behind Trump in four out of five swing states[1] Group 2: Economic Policies and Trade Relations - Trump's tax reform in 2017 reduced corporate tax rates from 35% to 21%, aimed at boosting investment and economic growth[1] - Despite efforts to reduce trade deficits, the U.S. trade deficit expanded during Trump's term, indicating limited success in reversing trade imbalances[1] - Since 2018, China's export dependence on the U.S. has decreased, with the share of exports to the U.S. dropping from 19.22% in 2018 to 14.81% in 2023[2] Group 3: Export Trends and Market Shifts - The share of Chinese electronics in U.S. imports fell from 41.5% in 2018 to 29.0% in 2022, as competitors like Vietnam and Japan gained market share[2] - In the automotive sector, despite trade tensions, China's share of U.S. imports for transportation equipment rose from 6.7% in 2018 to 8.1% in 2022[2] - The resilience of certain export sectors, such as machinery and automotive, is attributed to their focus on markets outside the U.S. and establishing overseas production facilities[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [14]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2024 met expectations, with revenue and net profit showing positive growth. The growth is attributed to the recovery in demand for MLCC dielectric powder products and the increasing market demand for catalytic materials and precision ceramics [2][3]. - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 46.23 billion, 55.97 billion, and 61.18 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 7.55 billion, 9.37 billion, and 11.62 billion yuan [8]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.953 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.57%, and a net profit of 330 million yuan, up 3.60% year-on-year. The net cash flow from operating activities increased significantly by 61.25% year-on-year to 154 million yuan [1][2]. - The overall gross margin for the first half of 2024 was 39.89%, an increase of 2.39 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2]. - The company's revenue and net profit are projected to grow at compound annual growth rates (CAGR) of 19.8% and 32.6% respectively from 2023 to 2024 [10]. Business Segment Performance - The electronic materials segment reported revenue of 279 million yuan in the first half of 2024, a decrease of 2.19% year-on-year, while the gross margin improved to 35.58% [3]. - The catalytic materials segment achieved revenue of 406 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.20%, with a gross margin of 43.56% [7]. - The precision ceramics segment is expected to benefit from the rapid development of the global new energy industry, with multiple products gradually releasing performance [7]. Future Outlook - The company is focusing on enhancing product applications in automotive and AI-related fields, which is expected to drive continued recovery in performance [7]. - The report highlights the ongoing trend of domestic substitution in various product lines, particularly in MLCC dielectric powder and electronic materials [3][8].

比亚迪、长城汽车7月销量交流会 比亚迪在七月份售出34万辆乘用车，同比增长31%，其中包括13万辆纯电动汽车，增长 4%，以及21万辆插电式混合动力汽车，增长67%。此外，比亚迪的零售销量达近30万台 ，环比增长约2万。长城汽车的批发销量为9.1万台，环比下滑7%，同比下滑16%，而其 新能源车的批发量和零售销量均有所下滑。尽管如此，长城汽车的出口销售量约3.8万 台，同比增长60%-41%，坦克品牌的销量增长38%，哈弗品牌销量下滑16%。两公司均表 现出对新能源汽车市场的乐观态度，并计划通过新产品发布和市场策略调整来增强竞 争力。 汽车7月销量点评：比亚迪、长城表现各异 比亚迪7月份共销售乘用车34万辆，同比增长31%，其中纯电动汽车销售13万辆，同比 增长4%，插电式混合动力汽车销售21万辆，同比增长67%。比亚迪零售销量达到近30万 台，环比增长约2万。长城汽车的具体销量未予公布，但比亚迪部分车型如驱逐舰05、 宋PLUS等有所下滑或波动，与新产品上市有关。同时，海狮07稳定销售，得益于其独 特的快充技术。 新能源汽车市场分析与展望 新能源汽车销量稳定及增长，特别是比亚迪表现突出：出口销售增长显著，得 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the solar energy sector, indicating a potential recovery in profitability and demand in the second half of the year [2][3]. Core Insights - The export performance of solar inverters is strong, with a notable increase in demand expected in the second half of the year. In June 2024, China's total solar component exports reached $2.9 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 29.5% but a month-on-month increase of 2.6%. The total export volume was 27.5 GW, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 25.8% [2][12]. - The inverter exports in June 2024 totaled $918 million, a year-on-year decrease of 3.77% but a month-on-month increase of 17.66%. The number of inverters exported reached 5.85 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 19.91% [14][20]. - The report highlights that the solar energy industry is approaching a recovery phase, with the first half of 2024 potentially marking the bottom of profitability for the sector. The resilience of global solar installations in 2023 is supported by favorable domestic policies and international energy transitions [3][12]. Summary by Sections Export Analysis - In June 2024, China's solar component exports amounted to 27.5 GW, with Europe experiencing a decline in demand due to inventory adjustments and seasonal factors. However, emerging markets in Asia and Africa continue to show robust growth, with countries like the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan maintaining over 100% year-on-year growth [12][13]. - The inverter export market is also showing signs of recovery, with significant month-on-month increases in exports to Europe and Asia. In June, 1.23 million inverters were exported to Europe, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 30.4% [20][33]. Provincial Performance - Provinces such as Guangdong and Zhejiang are leading in inverter exports, with Guangdong exporting 1.59 million units and achieving an export value of 2.39 billion yuan, while Zhejiang's exports reached 2.97 million units [20][28]. - The report emphasizes the importance of distributed energy products in driving export growth, with companies like Sungrow and others in Anhui and Jiangsu showing positive trends in their export performance [20][28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [1] Core Views - The company's performance is impacted by increased expenses and provisions, while its channel structure continues to optimize [1][6] - Revenue for the first half of 2024 reached 5.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.42%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 32.38% [1] - The company is actively expanding its channels, with main product sales driving slight revenue growth [1][6] Financial Summary - Revenue (in million yuan): 2022A: 11,338, 2023A: 12,476, 2024E: 13,163, 2025E: 14,379, 2026E: 15,782 [1] - Net profit (in million yuan): 2022A: 330, 2023A: 174, 2024E: 601, 2025E: 795, 2026E: 1,030 [1] - ROE (%): 2022A: 12.5, 2023A: 6.6, 2024E: 18.2, 2025E: 19.7, 2026E: 20.7 [1] - EPS (latest diluted, in yuan): 2022A: 0.63, 2023A: 0.33, 2024E: 1.14, 2025E: 1.51, 2026E: 1.95 [1] - P/E (times): 2022A: 55.4, 2023A: 105.2, 2024E: 30.4, 2025E: 23.0, 2026E: 17.7 [1] Product Performance - The company reported sales volumes for various products in the first half of 2024: - Home decoration wall paint: 252,300 tons (+24.04%) - Engineering wall paint: 501,700 tons (-0.95%) - Adhesives: 34,200 tons (+28.02%) - Base materials and auxiliary materials: 1,077,000 tons (+34.81%) - Waterproof membranes: 4,350,880 square meters (+22.92%) [1] - Revenue from these products showed varied growth rates, with home decoration wall paint revenue increasing by 20.12% [1] Cost and Margin Analysis - The average prices of most products decreased, with home decoration wall paint down by 3.03% and engineering wall paint down by 9.85% [2] - The company's gross margin and net margin were 28.64% and 3.61%, respectively, both showing year-on-year declines [2] - Operating cash flow for the first half of 2024 was negative 42 million yuan, a decline of 121.41% year-on-year [2] Strategic Developments - The company is focusing on high-end retail strategies and optimizing its channel structure, with significant growth in retail business [6] - The company is expanding its presence in e-commerce platforms and enhancing its online retail capabilities [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for TSMC, expecting the stock price to outperform the industry index by over 15% in the next six months [10]. Core Insights - TSMC has confirmed a growth trend in the semiconductor industry and has raised its revenue growth guidance for the year to approximately 25% [5]. - The company reported Q2 2024 revenue of NT$673.51 billion, a year-on-year increase of 40.1%, and a net profit of NT$247.85 billion, up 36.3% year-on-year [1]. - Advanced process technology (3nm and 5nm) demand has significantly contributed to revenue, with high-performance computing (HPC) now accounting for over 50% of revenue [2]. Financial Performance - Revenue (in million USD): - 2022: 73,670 - 2023: 70,599 - 2024E: 88,851 - 2025E: 110,815 - 2026E: 133,985 [1] - Net Profit (in million USD): - 2022: 32,311 - 2023: 27,816 - 2024E: 34,319 - 2025E: 43,599 - 2026E: 53,179 [1] - The company expects a long-term gross margin of 53% or higher, driven by strong demand and pricing power in advanced packaging and process technologies [2]. Market Dynamics - The advanced process technology utilization rate has reached 100%, prompting TSMC to increase production capacity and adjust pricing for certain products [2]. - The semiconductor manufacturing market is projected to grow by approximately 10% in 2024, with TSMC's revenue growth rate expected to be around 25% [5]. - TSMC plans to increase its capital expenditure budget to $30-32 billion to support future growth trends, particularly in AI and high-end smartphones [2].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential for the brokerage sector, particularly those trading at 1x PB, to stabilize and break through market resistance, driven by new real estate policies and anticipated market reforms [1][7] - The insurance sector is experiencing a recovery in premium income, with major companies reporting a 3% year-on-year increase in original insurance premium income for the first half of the year, totaling CNY 1.7 trillion [7][8] Summary by Sections 1. Main Views - The market is influenced by fluctuations in exchange rates, geopolitical tensions, and changes in capital flows, with trading volumes around CNY 600 billion [6][7] - The 20th Central Committee's Third Plenary Session is expected to enhance market confidence through reforms, particularly in the capital market [6][7] 1.1 Next Week's Outlook - The report notes the importance of monitoring the recovery slope of the domestic economy and the impact of demand-side policies on the market [7] - The report highlights the need for coordination with financial regulatory bodies for any major policy changes affecting the capital market [7] 1.2 Key Investment Portfolio 1.2.1 Insurance Sector - The insurance sector is currently undervalued, with a focus on companies like China Ping An and China Pacific Insurance for potential recovery [8] - The report suggests monitoring the sales performance in the real estate sector and reforms in life insurance [7][8] 1.2.2 Brokerage Sector - The report recommends focusing on mid-sized brokerage firms benefiting from innovation and transformation, such as East Money and Zhejiang Securities [10] - It also highlights the potential of leading brokerage firms like Huatai Securities and China Galaxy Securities, which are currently undervalued [10]

证券研究报告 | 公司深度报告 2024 年 07 月 08 日 五粮液(000858.SZ) 重新认识五粮液 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------|--------|--------|--------|---------|---------| | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入(百万元) | 73,969 | 83,272 | 91,674 | 102,033 | 114,277 | | 增长率 yoy(%) | 11.7 | 12.6 | 10.1 | 11.3 | 12.0 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 26,690 | 30,211 | 33,874 | 38,298 | 43,581 | | 增长率 yoy(%) | 14.2 | 13.2 | 12.1 | 13.1 | 13.8 | | ROE(%) | 24.0 | 23.8 | 23.7 | 23.4 | 23.1 | | EPS 最新摊薄(元) | 6.88 | 7.78 | 8. ...