证券研究报告| 公司动态点评 2024 年 09 月 03 日 桐昆股份（601233.SH） 1H24 业绩大幅改善，看好长丝盈利逐步改善 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|--------|--------|--------|--------|---------| | | | | | | | | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入（百万元） | 61,993 | 82,640 | 93,084 | 99,232 | 107,114 | | 增长率 yoy （ % ） | 4.8 | 33.3 | 12.6 | 6.6 | 7.9 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 125 | 797 | 2,469 | 3,875 | 4,709 | | 增长率 yoy （ % ） | -98.3 | 539.1 | 209.7 | 57.0 | 21.5 | | ROE （ % ） | 0.4 | 2.3 | 6.6 | 9.4 | 10.4 | | EPS 最 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2024 年 09 月 04 日 伊利股份（600887.SH） 终端表现优于报表，下半年轻装上阵、改善可期 买入（维持评级） 股票信息 行业 食品饮料 2024 年 9 月 3 日收盘价（元） 22.21 总市值（百万元） 141,388.02 流通市值（百万元） 140,036.14 总股本（百万股） 6,365.96 流通股本（百万股） 6,305.09 近 3 月日均成交额（百万元） 1,062.33 股价走势 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------| | | | | | | | | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入（百万元） | 122,698 | 125,758 | 126,846 | 132,649 | 137,909 | | 增长率 yoy （ % ） | 11.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 4.6 | 4 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2024 年 09 月 04 日 涪陵榨菜（002507.SZ） H1 榨菜稳健&渠道调整，H2 成本红利可期 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-----------------------------------------|-----------| | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 增持（维持评级） | | | 营业收入（百万元） | 2,548 | 2,450 | 2,593 | 2,783 | 2,972 | 股票信息 | | | 增长率 yoy （ % ） | 1.2 | -3.9 | 5.9 | 7.3 | 6.8 | | | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 899 | 827 | 888 | 956 | 1,026 | 行业 | 食品饮料 | | 增长率 yoy （ % ） | 21.1 | -8.0 | 7. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [1][2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 41.04 billion RMB for H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.55 billion RMB, a decrease of 9.3% [1][2] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.40 RMB per share, totaling 650 million RMB, which accounts for 25.51% of the net profit for H1 2024 [2] - The company is focusing on a major brand strategy, with four business segments forming a complete industrial chain, enhancing brand value from pharmaceuticals to health products [2] Financial Summary - Revenue (in million RMB): - 2022A: 70,788 - 2023A: 75,515 - 2024E: 79,410 - 2025E: 83,117 - 2026E: 86,410 [1][5] - Net Profit (in million RMB): - 2022A: 3,967 - 2023A: 4,056 - 2024E: 4,245 - 2025E: 4,499 - 2026E: 4,739 [1][5] - EPS (in RMB): - 2022A: 2.44 - 2023A: 2.49 - 2024E: 2.61 - 2025E: 2.77 - 2026E: 2.92 [1][5] Business Segment Performance - Revenue by segment for H1 2024: - Traditional Chinese Medicine: 4.06 billion RMB, +8.2% YoY - Chemical Medicine: 2.12 billion RMB, -17.1% YoY - Health Products: 6.54 billion RMB, -7.2% YoY - Commercial Business: 27.82 billion RMB, +6.1% YoY [2] Profitability Metrics - Gross Margin for H1 2024: 19%, down 1.8 percentage points YoY [2] - Net Margin for H1 2024: 6.5%, down 0.8 percentage points YoY [2] - ROE (Return on Equity) projections: - 2024E: 11.3% - 2025E: 11.0% - 2026E: 10.6% [1][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting the stock price to outperform the industry index by over 15% in the next six months [12]. Core Views - The company's performance in the refining sector has significantly improved, driven by high oil prices and steady demand in the chemical fiber industry [2][6]. - The company is advancing multiple quality enhancement projects to increase product value, which is expected to further boost performance [6][7]. - The controlling shareholder has initiated a share buyback plan to enhance investor confidence and stabilize the company's development [6][7]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 354.25 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.0% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 3.17 billion in 2024, reflecting a significant recovery with a year-on-year growth of 173.3% [1][7]. - The company's operating cash flow has improved dramatically, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 8.39 billion in the first half of 2024, up 468.29% year-on-year [2][6]. Segment Performance - The refining segment remains the largest contributor to revenue, with a revenue of 59.84 billion in the first half of 2024, up 8.68% year-on-year [2][6]. - The chemical products segment showed a slight decline in revenue, but profitability has improved, indicating a recovery in margins [2][6]. - The company has successfully launched a new α-olefin pilot plant, which is expected to enhance the supply of high-value products in the domestic market [6]. Market Position - The company has a total market capitalization of approximately 87.59 billion, with a circulating market value of about 82.16 billion [3]. - The stock price as of September 4, 2024, was 8.65, reflecting the market's response to the company's recent performance and strategic initiatives [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 401.04 billion and 451.37 billion in 2025 and 2026, respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [1][7]. - The projected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.31, 0.46, and 0.55, respectively, suggesting a recovery in profitability [1][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guotou Electric Power, expecting a price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index within the next six months [12]. Core Views - The company's hydropower fundamentals remain solid in H1 2024, while cost reductions in thermal power have improved profitability [1]. - The report anticipates revenue growth from 62.39 billion yuan in 2024 to 69.60 billion yuan in 2026, with net profit expected to rise from 7.74 billion yuan to 9.41 billion yuan during the same period [2]. - The complementary advantages of various power sources and the rhythm of project planning and implementation will sustain growth [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 27.102 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.79%, and a net profit of 3.744 billion yuan, up 12.19% year-on-year [1]. - For Q2 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 12.994 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.89% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.708 billion yuan, down 0.87% year-on-year [1]. - The hydropower generation from the Yalong River increased by 37.24% in Q2 2024, while the average on-grid electricity price decreased by 9.65% [2]. - The thermal power generation decreased by 10.82% in Q2 2024, but profitability improved due to lower fuel costs [2]. Future Projections - The report projects operating revenues of 62.39 billion yuan, 66.74 billion yuan, and 69.60 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 7.74 billion yuan, 8.76 billion yuan, and 9.41 billion yuan [2]. - The expected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.04 yuan, 1.17 yuan, and 1.26 yuan, respectively, with P/E ratios of 14.8, 13.1, and 12.2 [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index within the next six months [10]. Core Views - The company achieved a steady growth in net profit in H1 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 21.88%, driven by technological innovation and product diversification [2][3]. - The gross margin for H1 2024 was 25.22%, up by 1.03 percentage points year-on-year, indicating an improvement in profitability [2]. - The company has successfully developed over 1,000 product models, including high-precision TCXO and OCXO series, which are essential for automotive applications [3]. - The global market for new energy vehicles is projected to grow significantly, providing a substantial opportunity for the company's automotive business [2][3]. Financial Summary - In H1 2024, the company reported revenue of 393 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.98%, and a net profit of 57 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 21.88% [1][2]. - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 875 million yuan in 2024E to 1,300 million yuan in 2026E, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20.7% [1][6]. - The projected net profit for 2024E is 125 million yuan, increasing to 220 million yuan by 2026E [1][6]. Product Development and Market Position - The company has enhanced its R&D capabilities, focusing on high-end products and optimizing production processes to meet the growing demand in the automotive sector [2][3]. - The automotive electronics market is expanding due to trends in vehicle intelligence, electrification, and connectivity, which increases the demand for high-grade crystal oscillators [3]. - The company has established partnerships with several major automotive manufacturers and Tier 1 suppliers, positioning itself well in the market [3].

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2024 年 09 月 03 日 创耀科技（688259.SH） 24H1 收入短期承压，布局工业互联与新短距通信领域助力公司发 展 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------|----------|-----------|----------|----------|------------|-----------------------------------------|----------| | | | | | | | | | | 财务指标 营业收入（百万元） | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 买入（维持评级） | | | 增长率 yoy （ % ） | 932 45.4 | 661 -29.0 | 767 16.0 | 900 17.3 | 1,066 18.5 | 股票信息 | | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 91 | 58 | 72 | 94 | 113 | 行业 | ...

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2024 年 09 月 01 日 五粮液（000858.SZ） 高质量增长释放转向信号 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|--------|--------|--------------------------|---------|---------| | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入（百万元） | 73,969 | 83,272 | 92,265 | 102,415 | 112,656 | | 增长率 yoy （ % ） | 11.7 | 12.6 | 10.8 | 11.0 | 10.0 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 26,690 | 30,211 | 34,277 | 38,662 | 43,035 | | 增长率 yoy （ % ） | 14.2 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 12.8 | 11.3 | | ROE （ % ） | 24.0 | 23.8 | 23.9 | 23.5 | 22.7 | ...

证券研究报告 | 行业动态点评 2024 年 09 月 02 日 电力设备及新能源 国网第二批次计量设备中标公示，整体集中度由降转升 事件：2024 年 8 月 28 日，国家电网公示 2024 年第二次电能表（含用电信 息采集）招标采购推荐的中标候选人，本次招标设备共 1595 万只，总中标 金额约 45.32 亿元，共 73 家企业中标。 全年总体需求或将持续高增，本批次招标价格同比降幅较大。数量方面，除 D 级三相智能电能表需求同比大幅增长，同比增长约 51.50%，其他分标物资 需求量均呈现下降状态，但由于 2024 年国家电网计划集采计量设备共 3 个 批次，较往年增加一个批次，参考 2022 年同样增加集采批次的情况，且本 年度前两批招标量已经超过 2023 年的 83%，我们预计全年需求总量仍将保 持同比快速增长的状态。价格方面，本批次价格下降幅度较大，A 级单相智 能电能表、B 级三相智能电能表分标降幅约 5%，C 级三相智能电能表分标降 幅约 8%，D 级三相智能电能表分标单价下降至 700 元以内，降幅高达 26%。 电能表中标集中度由连续下降转为上升，用电信息采集终端集中度仍保持下 降趋 ...