Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The report highlights Tencent's dual efficiency engines of "Intelligentization" and "Globalization" as key strategies for growth, with a focus on AI capabilities and international market expansion [4][6] - Tencent's AI development platform has seen significant enhancements, with nearly 600 new features added, enabling users without programming experience to create AI products [5] - The report emphasizes Tencent Cloud's robust growth in international business, with a doubling of overseas customer numbers over the past three years, indicating strong demand for its services [4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index level is 5617.07, with a 52-week high of 5841.52 and a low of 2855.49 [1] Recent Developments - Tencent has launched its "Intelligent Agent Strategy" and is enhancing its AI capabilities across various business sectors, including advertising and gaming, leading to significant revenue growth [5][6] - The AI capabilities are integrated into Tencent's advertising business, resulting in a 20% increase in marketing service revenue in Q2 [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in AI agents and domestic computing power, listing several key players in these sectors [8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Views - The company has experienced significant revenue growth driven by the demand for AI computing, particularly in the high-speed optical communication components market, with a revenue increase of 24.29% year-on-year in H1 2025 [5][6]. - The company is increasing its R&D investment to enhance its foundational optical technology capabilities, with a 30.71% year-on-year increase in R&D spending in H1 2025 [7]. - The company is actively expanding its domestic and international business, focusing on vertical integration and enhancing production capabilities, including the establishment of a production base in Thailand [8][9]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 263 million yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 36.59 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.47% [5][6]. - The company forecasts revenues of 602 million yuan, 786 million yuan, and 1.012 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits expected to reach 98 million yuan, 137 million yuan, and 186 million yuan in the same years [10][12]. Growth Projections - The company anticipates a revenue growth rate of 35.34% in 2025, followed by 30.45% in 2026 and 28.72% in 2027 [12]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from 0.76 yuan in 2025 to 1.44 yuan in 2027 [12].

宏观观点 证券研究报告：宏观报告 研究所 分析师:李起 SAC 登记编号:S1340524110001 Email:liqi2@cnpsec.com 研究助理:高晓洁 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020001 Email:gaoxiaojie@cnpsec.com 海外宏观周报：美国通胀无虞为降息扫清障碍 ⚫ 核心观点： 上周美国CPI数据基本符合预期，通胀对降息的约束进一步解除， 美股随即全线走高。但市场关注的焦点更在于同一时间公布的失业金 申领数据。初请失业金人数超预期上行，其中大部分增量由德克萨斯 州贡献，论证更加广泛的企业裁员正在发生还需要更多证据。导致当 前美国就业市场走弱的核心原因依然是较低的招聘而非裁员。7 月的 JOLTS 数据显示招聘率和解雇率依然维持低位，说明就业市场尚未进 入深度衰退。 近期研究报告 《破内卷困局，离不开扩内需支撑》 - 2025.07.08 | 1 海外宏观数据跟踪 4 | | --- | | 1.1 上周重要事件与数据跟踪 4 | | 1.2 本周重要数据与事件 7 | | 2 美联储观点跟踪 8 | | 3 风险提示 8 | ⚫ 风险提示： 就业市场意外强劲复 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that the consumer market is experiencing stable growth, with August retail sales data showing a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, while the actual growth, excluding price factors, is 4.1% [4][5][8] - The report highlights a trend of recovery in consumer spending, particularly in the categories of upgraded consumer goods and essential items, with a notable increase in sales of furniture and home appliances [6][9] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index level is 2395.83, with a 52-week high of 2501.51 and a low of 1442.73 [1] Retail Sales Data - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,668 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%. Excluding automobiles, the retail sales amounted to 35,575 billion yuan, growing by 3.7% [4][5] - For the first eight months of the year, the total retail sales reached 323,906 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 4.6% [4] Consumer Behavior Trends - The report notes a deceleration in apparent growth but an acceleration in actual growth when price factors are excluded. The month-on-month growth in August was 0.17%, which is faster than the growth rates in June and July [5][8] - The report identifies a strong performance in upgraded consumer goods, with furniture sales growing by 18.6% year-on-year, and significant growth in sports and entertainment products [6][7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a cautious optimism regarding consumer recovery, recommending attention to new consumption opportunities such as trendy toys and gold jewelry, as well as cyclical sectors like liquor and travel if consumer stimulus policies continue [9][10]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Stronger than the market, maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - Focus on the geopolitical disturbance affecting Russian oil shipments, leading to a rise in crude oil prices. EIA reports show increases in both crude oil and refined product inventories. Continuous attention is required on domestic commodity prices and the progress of phasing out outdated facilities in the petrochemical industry [2][5] - The petrochemical index underperformed this week, declining by 0.41% compared to the previous week, while oilfield services showed the best performance within the sector, with a rise of 3.98% [3][5] - Crude oil prices increased, with U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories also rising [6][13] - In the polyester segment, the price of polyester filament remained stable, with price spreads increasing. The inventory days for polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased, while the operating rate remained stable [18][25] - For olefins, the spot prices of sample polyolefins remained stable, with inventory levels decreasing [26][29] Summary by Sections Crude Oil - Crude oil prices rose, with Brent crude futures closing at $67.43 per barrel, up 3.3% from last week. U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 15,430 thousand barrels, while gasoline inventories rose by 1,220 thousand barrels [8][17] Polyester - The prices of polyester filament (POY, DTY, FDY) were stable at 6,860, 8,040, and 7,135 yuan per ton, respectively, with price spreads increasing by 150 yuan per ton [20][25] - Inventory days for polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were reported at 27.6, 31.1, and 19.3 days for FDY, DTY, and POY, respectively [25] Olefins - Sample prices for polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) were reported at 7,850 and 8,050 yuan per ton, with no change from the previous week. The total petrochemical inventory for polyolefins was 65.5 million tons, down by 1.5 million tons from last week [29]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant improvement in performance, with a notable increase in new business growth. For the first half of 2025, it achieved a revenue of 783 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.7%. The net loss attributable to shareholders was reduced to 151 million yuan, a decrease of 43.9% compared to the previous year. The gross profit margin improved from 13.6% in the same period last year to 25.9% [4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Latest closing price: 42.74 HKD - Total shares: 484 million, circulating shares: 473 million - Total market capitalization: 20.7 billion HKD, circulating market capitalization: 20.2 billion HKD - 52-week high/low: 53.50 / 12.54 HKD - Debt-to-asset ratio: 22.21% - Largest shareholder: BlackPearl Global Limited [3]. Business Segments ADAS Business - Revenue from ADAS-related lidar products reached 500 million yuan in H1 2025. Despite a 6.0% year-on-year decline in overall sales volume to 220,500 units, Q2 2025 saw a 4.6% increase in shipments to 123,800 units. The average price of ADAS lidar decreased from approximately 2,600 yuan to 2,300 yuan due to a higher proportion of lower-priced MX products. The gross margin for ADAS lidar improved from 11.2% to 17.4% [5]. Robotics Business - The robotics segment emerged as a major growth driver, with lidar product revenue reaching 221 million yuan, and sales skyrocketing from 8,900 units in 2024 to 46,300 units, a staggering increase of 420.2%. Q2 2025 sales were 34,400 units, up 631.9% year-on-year. The gross margin for robotics lidar rose from 26.1% to 45.0% [6]. Robotaxi Business - The company has a competitive edge in the Robotaxi sector with its self-developed SPAD-SOC chip and the E platform for solid-state lidar. The first mass-produced solid-state lidar, E1, has been launched, marking a significant step in commercializing solid-state lidar technology. The EM4+E1 product combination has completed mass production validation with eight leading Robotaxi clients, covering over 90% of the global L4 sector [7][8]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2.433 billion yuan in 2025, 3.739 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.221 billion yuan in 2027. The expected net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be -180 million yuan in 2025, 63 million yuan in 2026, and 403 million yuan in 2027 [9][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in shipments and is making orderly progress in solid-state battery development [4] - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 19.394 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.48%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 367 million yuan, up 35.22% year-on-year [4] - The company is focusing on innovation and R&D, with a reported R&D investment of 1.382 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.34% [5] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company shipped approximately 40 GWh, a year-on-year increase of about 48% [5] - The revenue from power products was 14.034 billion yuan, up 19.94% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 14.24%, an increase of 2.16 percentage points [5] - The company expects revenues of 45.050 billion, 56.908 billion, and 69.227 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.29%, 26.32%, and 21.65% [6][8] Profitability Forecast - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 1.547 billion, 2.435 billion, and 3.241 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 28.23%, 57.37%, and 33.07% [6][8] - The projected PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 53.62, 34.07, and 25.61, respectively [6][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within six months [7][12]. Core Insights - The company reported strong growth in H1 2025, with revenue reaching 2.441 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.44%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 233 million yuan, up 47.38% year-on-year [4][5]. - The 3C business segment showed significant demand, driven by AI innovations and increased penetration of titanium alloy frames and foldable screens, leading to a revenue of 896 million yuan, a 34.07% increase year-on-year [5][6]. - The company successfully launched its Vietnam production base, enhancing its global competitiveness and reducing operational costs, with overseas revenue growing by 89.45% to 161 million yuan [6][7]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 25.06%, an increase of 2.10 percentage points, and a net margin of 9.76%, up 1.75 percentage points [6]. - The company forecasts revenue growth from 5.317 billion yuan in 2025 to 7.100 billion yuan in 2027, with net profit expected to rise from 465 million yuan to 667 million yuan during the same period [7][10]. - The projected PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 36.99, 29.88, and 25.74 respectively, indicating a positive outlook on valuation [7][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the bond market continued to adjust, with credit bond sentiment generally pessimistic and the adjustment amplitude greater than that of interest rates. The overall decline of credit bonds has exceeded the previous round of adjustment at the end of July, and some maturities have even exceeded the bear - flat stage at the end of February this year. Coupon assets have a certain cost - effectiveness [2][5][10][33]. - Currently, there are some opportunities to participate in 2 - 5 - year bank secondary capital bonds after adjustment. The sinking of weak - quality urban investment bonds with maturities of 1 - 3 years can continue to be participated in, and the riding income of varieties with a yield of more than 2.2% and a maturity of about 3 years is quite considerable. For ultra - long - term bonds, the yield has a certain cost - effectiveness after adjustment, but only allocation - type institutions are recommended to participate moderately [5][33]. - The second batch of science - innovation ETFs was listed last week, with enthusiastic subscription sentiment, which may become a marginal stabilizing force for the credit market. However, the boosting effect on the bond market is currently limited [30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Bond Market Adjustment - In the first half of last week, the stock - bond "see - saw" effect was still evident, and the news of fund fee adjustment made the market sentiment sluggish, with yields rising continuously. The 10Y Treasury bond interest rate exceeded the phased top point of 1.80%. In the second half of the week, the expectation of the central bank restarting bond purchases increased, and yields recovered somewhat, but overall, it closed down for the whole week [2][10]. - Credit bonds weakened in sync with interest rates, and the decline of most maturities of credit bonds exceeded that of interest rates. The anti - decline attribute of credit bonds was weak in this long - lasting bear market [2][10]. - From September 8th to September 12th, 2025, the yields of 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, 4Y, and 5Y Treasury bonds increased by 0.4BP, 2.1BP, 1.0BP, 0.5BP, and 0.2BP respectively, while the yields of the same - maturity AAA medium - term notes increased by 3.8BP, 4.8BP, 6.2BP, 3.1BP, and 2.5BP respectively, and the yields of AA + medium - term notes increased by 4.8BP, 5.8BP, 6.2BP, 7.1BP, and 3.5BP respectively [10]. - The market of ultra - long - term credit bonds weakened synchronously, with the decline mostly exceeding that of the same - maturity interest - rate bonds. The yields of AAA/AA + 10Y medium - term notes increased by 8.53BP and 7.53BP respectively, the yields of AAA/AA + 10Y urban investment bonds increased by 6.36BP and 5.35BP respectively, the yield of AAA - 10Y bank secondary capital bonds increased by 10.61BP, while the yield of 10Y Treasury bonds increased by 4.10BP [12][13]. 3.2 Performance of Secondary Perpetual (Er Yong) Bonds - The market of secondary perpetual bonds weakened synchronously, and the "volatility amplifier" feature was very obvious. The decline of 1Y - 5Y was significantly higher than that of ordinary credit bonds, and the decline of the ultra - long - term part was also higher than that of ultra - long - term credit bonds [3][16]. - From the perspective of the curve term structure, the parts within 1 year and over 7 years were relatively flat, and the curve steepened the most from 2 to 6 years. The yields of 1 - 5 years, 7 years, and 10 years of AAA - bank secondary capital bonds increased by 6.09BP, 8.75BP, 9.97BP, 10.32BP, 9.71BP, 8.81BP, and 10.61BP respectively [16]. - Currently, the part of the curve with a maturity of 3 years and above is still 32BP - 42BP away from the lowest yield point since 2025. Compared with the sharp decline at the end of July, the yield points of maturities over 2 years have reached new highs, and the adjustment amplitude is higher than that of the sharp decline at the end of July. The yields of maturities over 4 years have even exceeded the bear - flat position at the end of February this year [3][16]. - In terms of active trading, the sentiment was the most pessimistic in the first half of the week and improved marginally in the second half, but overall, the short - selling force was stronger. From September 8th to September 12th, the low - valuation trading proportion of secondary perpetual bonds was 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%, 27.50%, 100.00% respectively; the average trading duration was 0.66 years, 0.65 years, 0.57 years, 3.67 years, 6.54 years respectively [17]. 3.3 Ultra - long - term Credit Bonds - The institutional selling market of ultra - long - term credit bonds strengthened for 4 consecutive days and only improved on Friday. Institutions were more eager to sell ultra - long - term credit bonds last week. The discount amplitude of ultra - long - term credit bonds was not small, and there were also transactions with a discount of more than 4BP. About 25% of the discount trading amplitudes were over 4BP last week [4][21]. - The market's willingness to buy ultra - long - term credit bonds was very weak. High - activity trading was mainly concentrated in some short - term real - estate and financial defective individual bonds, as well as weak - quality urban investment bonds. About 35% of the trading amplitudes below the valuation were over 4BP last week, mainly real - estate bonds such as Vanke and Longfor, and there were also central - enterprise bonds like AVIC Industry Finance, all of which were short - term. In addition, many weak - quality urban investment bonds, such as AA(2), AA, AA - with maturities of 2 - 5 years, also had relatively large trading amplitudes below the valuation [4][25]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior - Public funds significantly sold secondary perpetual bonds last week. They reduced their holdings of credit bonds overall, with a net selling scale of 26.2 billion yuan, mainly selling bonds with maturities of 3 - 5 years. They significantly reduced their holdings of secondary perpetual bonds, with a total net selling of 64.3 billion yuan of bank secondary capital bonds [4][27]. - Allocation - type institutions had strong buying power after the adjustment. Wealth management, insurance, and other types of institutions net - bought 14.3 billion, 15.3 billion, and 29.2 billion yuan of bank secondary capital bonds respectively. In addition, insurance and wealth management institutions net - bought 12.8 billion and 20.9 billion yuan of credit bonds respectively, mainly bonds with maturities within 3 years [4][27]. 3.5 Impact of Science - innovation ETFs - The second batch of science - innovation ETFs was listed last week, with enthusiastic subscription sentiment. On September 12th, the second batch of 14 science - innovation bond ETFs started to raise funds, and most products had good subscription situations. It is expected that the raised funds can exceed 40 billion yuan, and the product scale is expected to continue to grow this week, pushing up the valuation of component bonds [30]. - However, the boosting effect of the second batch of science - innovation ETFs on the bond market is currently limited. The performance of listed credit ETF products was average last week. The weekly -环比 scale of credit benchmark - making ETF products has shrunk for 4 consecutive weeks since the market adjustment in the second week of August, and the weekly -环比 scale of science - innovation ETF products last week was significantly weaker than that in August. The unit net values of the above two types of credit bond ETFs were still in the red last week [30].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that real estate development investment in China decreased by 12.9% year-on-year in the first eight months of 2025, totaling 60,309 billion yuan. The sales area of newly built commercial housing also fell by 4.7% year-on-year, with sales amounting to 55,015 billion yuan, down 7.3% [1] - The report suggests that real estate companies capable of diversifying their operations are likely to achieve excess returns in the future [1] Industry Fundamentals Tracking New Housing Transactions and Inventory - In the last week, the new housing transaction area in 30 major cities was 1,208,700 square meters, with a cumulative area of 6,228,620 square meters for the year, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.1%. The average transaction area over the past four weeks was 1,503,900 square meters, down 2.4% year-on-year and 1.1% month-on-month [2][11] - The average transaction area for first-tier cities was 421,800 square meters, down 9% year-on-year but up 2.7% month-on-month. For second-tier cities, it was 776,900 square meters, up 6.3% year-on-year and 1.1% month-on-month. Third-tier cities saw an average of 305,300 square meters, down 11.9% year-on-year and 10.7% month-on-month [11] Second-Hand Housing Transactions and Listings - In the last week, the transaction area for second-hand housing in 20 cities was 199,480 square meters, with a cumulative area of 7,969,590 square meters for the year, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.9% [3][16] - The listing index for second-hand housing was 12.02 as of September 1, 2025, up 1.3% month-on-month, while the listing price index was 152.14, down 0.35% month-on-month [20] Land Market Transactions - In the last week, 87 residential land plots were newly supplied in 100 major cities, with 37 plots successfully sold. The average floor price for residential land was 4,720 yuan per square meter, with a premium rate of 3.65%, down 1.37 percentage points month-on-month [23][24] Market Review - The A-share real estate index rose by 5.98% last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 1.38%, by 4.6 percentage points. The Hong Kong property service and management index rose by 7.53%, outperforming the Hang Seng Composite Index by 3.46 percentage points [4][28]