丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 信用债策略转向"以守为攻" 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 6 月上中旬信用债建议转向防御性票息策略，聚焦中高等级品种以规避利率波动风险，静待超 长地方债及优质产业债配置窗口；当前信用利差收窄空间相对有限，需适当缩短久期并优选抗 跌性强的品种。存款降息推动资金向理财和保险迁移，结构性利好 AA+及以上城投债，但需警 惕弱区域城投及低等级产业债的分化风险。利率债市场尚处"预期真空期"，波动可能通过估 值、流动性及利差路径冲击信用债，建议小幅降低久期、避免资质过度下沉，静待情绪企稳期 择机布局国企产业债价值洼地。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 cjzqdt11111 2025-06-06 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title2] 信用债策略转向"以守为攻" [Table_Summa] 防 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Banks are significant participants in the bond market, and changes in their investment strategies can greatly impact the market [3][17] - The analysis is based on 135 sample banks, revealing a trend of reduced allocation to self-operated investments while increasing the proportion of trading accounts, particularly OCI assets, in a low-interest-rate environment [5][7] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the marginal changes in the investment strategies of state-owned banks due to their substantial influence on the bond market [8] Summary by Sections Bank Self-Operated Investment Overview - The self-operated investment business of banks accounted for 30.7% of total assets by the end of 2024, showing a significant upward trend from 2022 to 2024 [5][15] - The increase in self-operated investment is driven by the need for performance management amid pressure on net interest margins and weak growth in interest income and fees [32][29] Accounting Classification of Self-Operated Investments - Self-operated investments are classified into three accounting categories: AC (Amortized Cost), OCI (Other Comprehensive Income), and TPL (Trading Profit and Loss), each affecting the profit and loss statement differently [6][43] - The structure of these accounts varies among different types of banks, with state-owned banks having the highest proportion of AC accounts, while rural commercial banks lead in OCI assets [56][57] Impact of Low-Interest Rates on Investment Strategies - In a low-interest-rate environment, banks are reducing the proportion of AC accounts to mitigate passive holding risks and expanding trading accounts to capture market fluctuations [65][66] - The report notes that banks can realize gains from OCI and AC accounts to support their performance during periods of profit pressure, with a contribution of 2.2% to operating income from such actions in 2024 [71][72] Focus on State-Owned Banks' Investment Strategy Changes - The report highlights that changes in the trading account proportions of state-owned banks can lead to increased market predictability and reduced volatility in the bond market [8][86] - However, unexpected events can lead to significant market fluctuations due to differing interpretations among market participants [8]

[Table_Title] 风格轮动策略（四）：成长、价值轮动的基本面 金融工程丨深度报告 信号 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 本文尝试融合主观研判与量化分析视角来构建风格轮动框架，主要基于五大维度来构建核心风 格轮动模型，最终将会考虑运用于实际可投资组合（不同风格的个股、风格主题 ETF，以及匹 配特定风格特征的主动管理型基金）。本文仅基于基本面维度的成长价值风格轮动进行展开，后 续系列研究将聚焦其他维度进行风格轮动的展开。从结果来看，基本面视角下成长价值风格轮 动策略相较其均衡配置基准能够跑出长期超额，但受限于基本面视角各指标传导路径不一、传 导时滞在不同背景下有所差异，最终策略的表现还有所局限。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490513030001 SAC：S0490524080006 SFC：BUT353 覃川桃 邓元哲 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 24 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_Title 风格轮动策略（四）：成 ...

从AI上下半场切换看产业后续投资机会 长江证券研究所计算机研究小组 2025-06-05 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 分析师 宗建树 联系人 宋浪 SAC执业证书编号：S0490520030004 SFC执业证书编号：BUX668 分析师及联系人 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • 评级 看好 维持 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 01 AI本质是生产力革命，模型进步驱动每一轮产业周期 AI是典型的周期性成长行业，历史上共经历三次"浪潮"起伏： 人工智能三要素 1950 1980 2000 未来 萌芽时期 探索时期 高速发展时期 2016 AlphaGO战胜 人类顶级国棋 2012 选手李世石 深度学习算法 在语音、图像 识刚上取得重 大突破 2006 Hinton提出深 度学习算法模 型 1986 Hinton等提出 反向传播算法 90年代 日本的第五代 计算机失败 1982 Hopfied神经 网格模型提出 1957 心理学家罗森布拉特 发明感知机的模型 1956 达特茅斯会议提出人 工智能概念 信息系统早 期专家系统 专家系统广泛应 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨建材 [Table_Title] 特种玻纤高端品紧缺，继续推荐非洲建材 ——建材周专题 2025W21 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 特种玻纤高端品紧缺，继续推荐非洲建材 基本面：水泥价格计划提涨，玻璃库存小幅累积 推荐非洲链和国产替代链，存量龙头为全年主线 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 范超 张佩 李金宝 李浩 董超 SAC：S0490513080001 SAC：S0490518080002 SAC：S0490516040002 SAC：S0490520080026 SAC：S0490523030002 SFC：BQK473 SFC：BVZ972 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 Low CTE 玻纤布紧缺，下游载板基材厂商三菱瓦斯发布延迟交货通知。全球 BT 载板用基材 龙头日本三菱瓦斯近日向客户发出延迟交付通知，交期延长至 4-5 个月。台积电 CoWoS 先进 封装需求火爆，推动 AI GPU 所用的 ABF 载板材料供应紧张，现在进一步向 BT 载板蔓延。当 前上游材料供应 ...

[Table_Title] 自强者胜——关税应对策略三部曲（三） %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 联合研究丨行业深度 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 在宏观环境持续扰动的大背景下，世界"新格局"逐步显现，中国有望在各个领域得到长足发 展。在科技领域，我国明确提出自主可控发展路线，着力解决各"卡脖子"领域面临的技术和 产业化难题。在本篇报告中，长江策略联合金属、化工、机械、军工、电子、计算机、通信和 医药组，构建自上而下的自主可控行业研究框架，再结合自下而上视角梳理自主可控领域的核 心细分赛道和核心标的，以期得到较为完整的自主可控领域的投资图谱。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 戴清 王鹤涛 马太 SAC：S0490524010002 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490516100002 SFC：BTR264 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUT911 赵智勇 王贺嘉 杨洋 SAC：S0490517110001 SAC：S0490520110004 SAC：S0490517070012 SFC：BRP550 SFC ...

Investment Rating - The report emphasizes the importance of self-reliance in key technology sectors, indicating a positive outlook for investment in industries aligned with national strategic needs [3][9][18]. Core Insights - The report outlines a framework for self-reliant industry research, highlighting the need for China to overcome "bottleneck" issues in various sectors due to ongoing geopolitical tensions [9][18][21]. - It identifies several key sectors such as electronics, computing, metals, communications, machinery, military, pharmaceuticals, and chemicals as critical areas for investment and development [10][12][21]. Summary by Relevant Sections Strategy: Constructing a Self-Reliant Research Framework - The report establishes a multi-dimensional evaluation system to identify beneficiary industries and key stocks, focusing on both industry-level and individual stock-level analyses [10][31][36]. Electronics - The demand for core processors like GPU, CPU, and NPU is increasing, with significant investment opportunities in semiconductor manufacturing and packaging due to external technological restrictions [10][12]. Computing - The computing sector is experiencing growth driven by AI applications, with a broad market potential for domestic products as the industry transitions from usable to highly functional [10][12]. Metals - The military sector's focus on domestic production of titanium and high-temperature alloys is highlighted, with expectations for rapid growth in these materials due to increasing demand [11][12]. Communications - The strategic importance of satellite internet has been underscored, particularly in light of recent geopolitical events, indicating a significant opportunity for development in this area [11][12]. Machinery - The report notes a substantial market space for high-end equipment, with a low current domestic production rate, suggesting significant potential for domestic replacements [11][12]. Military - The global commercial aerospace engine market is projected to exceed 650 billion annually, with China expected to capture a significant share, emphasizing the need for independent development in this sector [11][12]. Pharmaceuticals - The life sciences sector is identified as a key area for domestic innovation, particularly in medical instruments and consumables, driven by supply chain security concerns [12][21]. Chemicals - The report highlights the urgency for domestic alternatives in certain chemical sub-industries, particularly in semiconductor materials, due to high technical barriers and low current domestic production rates [12][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the bond - allocation strategies of banks from the perspective of the three - account classification of bank financial investments. It finds that in a low - interest - rate environment, banks reduce the proportion of the allocation portfolio and increase the proportion of the trading portfolio, especially OCI - type assets that have less impact on the income statement. It also suggests paying attention to the marginal changes in the behavior of state - owned large - scale banks, as their investment scale is large and their behavioral changes have a significant impact on the bond market [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Bank as an Important Participant in the Bond Market - The report uses 135 banks as samples, with a representativeness of 93.5% in terms of total assets. Bank self - operated investment in the asset side has been increasing marginally since 2022, with a significant increase in 2024. In April 2025, commercial banks' bond custody accounted for 53%, making them the largest custody institution type. The self - operated investment of sample banks at the end of 2024 was 106.8 trillion yuan, directly participating in the bond market through bond allocation and indirectly through outsourcing [23][26][29]. 3.2 Performance Contribution Driving Banks to Increase Self - Operated Investment Proportion - Among different types of banks, state - owned large - scale banks had the most obvious increase in the proportion of self - operated investment in the asset side in 2024. From the perspective of asset allocation, banks' asset allocation is structurally inclined to self - operated investment during the recovery of effective credit demand. From the perspective of performance management, due to the pressure on net interest margins and the reduction of intermediate business fees, banks have a strong demand to increase the performance contribution of self - operated investment [10][35]. 3.3 Accounting Classification and Performance Impact of Bank Self - Operated Investment 3.3.1 Account Classification of Bank Self - Operated Investment - Based on the business model and contract cash - flow characteristics of financial assets, bank self - operated investment is classified into three types of accounts in accounting: AC, OCI, and TPL. AC corresponds to bond investment, OCI corresponds to other bond investments and other equity instrument investments, and TPL corresponds to trading financial assets. Based on the measurement methods and trading constraints of the three types of accounts, bank self - operated investment can be divided into the allocation portfolio (AC - type assets) and the trading portfolio (OCI and TPL - type assets) [11][50]. 3.3.2 Impact of Three Accounts on the Bank's Income Statement - TPL - type assets' fair - value fluctuations and coupon income are immediately reflected in the income statement. The coupon income of OCI and AC - type assets is included in the interest income in the income statement, and the capital gains from disposal are included in the investment income. During the holding period, the fair - value fluctuations of OCI - type assets are reflected in other comprehensive income, affecting the bank's capital adequacy ratio, while AC - type assets are not measured at fair value during the holding period [11]. 3.3.3 Differences in the Structure of Three Accounts among Different Types of Banks - At the end of 2024, state - owned large - scale banks had the highest proportion of AC accounts among the four types of banks, rural commercial banks had the highest proportion of OCI - type assets, and joint - stock banks and city commercial banks had a relatively high proportion of TPL accounts [11]. 3.4 Reflection of the Three - Account Structure on Bank Self - Operated Investment Strategies 3.4.1 Reducing the Allocation Portfolio and Expanding the Trading Portfolio in a Low - Interest - Rate Environment - In a low - interest - rate environment, banks gradually reduce the proportion of AC accounts in self - operated investment to reduce passive holding risks. They expand the trading portfolio to capture spread - earning opportunities in market fluctuations. Four types of banks all show the characteristics of compressing the TPL account and increasing the OCI account proportion [75]. 3.4.2 Realizing Floating Profits by Disposing of Assets in AC and OCI Accounts - Banks can sell bonds in OCI or AC accounts when profits are under pressure to realize floating profits and support current performance. In 2024, the investment income from disposing of OCI and AC account assets contributed 2.2% to the current operating income of listed banks [81]. 3.5 Attention to the Changes in the Self - Operated Investment Strategies of State - Owned Large - Scale Banks - Since 2024, the proportion of the trading portfolio of state - owned large - scale banks has been gradually increasing. Their trading can increase market consensus, reduce the volatility of regular trading days in the bond market, but may lead to large fluctuations in the bond market after unexpected events. In the long run, it is beneficial for state - owned large - scale banks to play a greater role in guiding the reasonable pricing of the bond market [97][98].

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨通信设备Ⅲ [Table_Title] 通信行业周观点：海外算力链信心强化，国内算 力互联网建设提速 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年第 22 周，通信板块上涨 2.02%，在长江一级行业中排名第 4 位；2025 年年初以来， 通信板块下跌 2.78%，在长江一级行业中排名第 24 位。上周英伟达发布 FY26Q1 业绩，数据 中心主业强劲增长，微软、谷歌推理 Token 用量爆发，海外算力链信心持续增强。IDC 预测中 国智算规模快速扩张；工信部发布《算力互联互通行动计划》，支持算力互联建设。AI 与算力 主线景气延续，带动数据中心通信需求上行，当前板块估值仍处低位，配置性价比较高。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于海宁 祖圣腾 SAC：S0490517110002 SAC：S0490523030001 SFC：BUX641 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 通信设备Ⅲ cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 通信行业周观点：海外算力链信心强化，国内算 2] ...

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 震荡市，寻找可能的边际变化 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 当前债市震荡行情已经维持较长时间，债市为何震荡——当前债市的估值偏贵，这使得债市难 以对一般的利好信息进行定价反映；债市将出现哪些边际变化——债市对中美贸易摩擦已逐渐 脱敏，当前资金价格已基本接近上沿，且当前债市对基本面的变化也并不十分敏感。预计在稳 增长政策出台前债市收益率整体依然震荡下行，建议 10 年期国债收益率在 1.65%-1.7%之间逢 调配置，另外关注短端同业存单的配置机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 SAC：S0490524080003 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 cjzqdt11111 2025-06-04 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title2] 震荡市，寻找可能的边际变化 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 今年以来债市的典型特点是快速走完行情+随后长时间窄幅震荡，直到后一个超预期事件发生， 债市再次短时 ...