丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨房地产 [Table_Title] 好房子的关键在于定价 [Table_Summary] 最顶端的豪宅市场，从典型样本跟周边次新的比价去看，定价已趋于合理区间，但市场容量相 对有限，核心矛盾在于潜在供应量较大；中高端改善市场，大多数产品定价已不低，且周边二 手竞品仍面临较大的补跌压力，好房子去化逐步承压，但部分定价具备性价比的项目，去化依 然相对较好，定价是项目去化的关键。综合而言，好房子是中长期阿尔法，只要定价合理，去 化不是问题，今年部分高地价项目的兑现有不确定性，短期盈利改善进程有一定波折；但近期 土地市场逐步降温，这对后续拿地构成利好，房企中期盈利结构性改善的置信度在提高。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 刘义 侯兆熔 SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490525060001 SFC：BUV416 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% ——房地产行业周度观点更新 报告要点 research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 好房子的关键在于定价 2] ——房地产行业周度观点更新 [Table_Summ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the software and services industry [12] Core Insights - The current AI narrative is viewed as a new industrial revolution, with Nvidia's founder Jensen Huang predicting the creation of a $100 trillion market driven by the transformation of existing industries and the emergence of new markets for AI manufacturers [7][24] - AI is expected to enhance productivity by freeing humans from mundane tasks, with significant implications for both consumer and enterprise applications [50][55] - Major players in the AI space are focusing on vertical integration, with model manufacturers and chipmakers collaborating to create AI factories and enhance system capabilities [9][10] Summary by Sections Current AI Expectations - The AI transformation is seen as a new industrial revolution, with potential market size reaching $100 trillion driven by changes in large-scale enterprises and the emergence of AI manufacturers [7][24] - AI is reshaping how large companies operate, with significant revenue streams now driven by AI technologies [24][28] Birth of Super Applications - Super applications are likely to emerge from major tech giants, focusing on traffic entry points and user engagement [8][55] - The ultimate goal of technological advancement is to liberate humans from necessary labor, allowing for a focus on higher-value tasks [55][56] Strategic Positioning of Major Players - Major AI companies are pursuing vertical integration strategies, combining model development with platform and operating system creation [9][10] - The competition for traffic entry points is intensifying, with companies vying for control over user interactions and data [58][59] Focus Areas for Investment - The report highlights three key areas for investment: AI factories, traffic entry points, and companies that can quickly realize labor revolution scenarios [10] - Companies that can leverage AI for long-term value, particularly in cloud computing and hardware supply, are recommended for investment [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Viewpoints - Since November, the coal price has declined due to weak demand, leading to a sector pullback. Despite high inventory levels at power plants limiting price increases, low port inventories and tight supply conditions suggest limited downside for prices. The current market presents value in dividend-paying stocks with stable earnings, especially considering year-end demand for insurance capital allocation [2][7] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal index (Yangtze) fell by 0.51%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.15 percentage points. The thermal coal price at Qinhuangdao port was 816 CNY/ton, down 18 CNY/ton week-on-week [6][16] Supply and Demand Analysis - As of November 27, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 25 provinces was 5.41 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7%. Power plant inventories were 137 million tons, with an available days supply of 25.2 days, up 0.6 days year-on-year. Port inventories showed a year-on-year decline of 9.5% [17][37] Price Trends - The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port decreased by 2.16% week-on-week. The price of coking coal at Jingtang port was 1,670 CNY/ton, down 110 CNY/ton week-on-week. The market remains resilient due to low port inventories and seasonal demand [6][44] Investment Recommendations - Stock selection should focus on three strategies: defensive and offensive stocks like Yancoal Energy and Electric Power Investment Energy; stable leaders such as China Coal Energy and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical; and elastic growth stocks like Jinkong Coal and Lu'an Environmental Energy [8]

Group 1: Metal Sector - Huaxi Nonferrous is expected to see net profit growth from CNY 6.58 billion in 2024 to CNY 11.40 billion in 2026, with a PE ratio decreasing from 37.28 to 21.52[10] - The company has a projected capacity increase to 0.6 million tons of tin and 1 million tons of antimony by 2027, benefiting from resource consolidation trends in Guangxi[12] Group 2: Construction Materials - Huaxin Cement's net profit is forecasted to rise from CNY 24.16 billion in 2024 to CNY 36.73 billion in 2026, with a PE ratio dropping from 17.21 to 11.32[10] - The company has diversified its growth strategy, focusing on overseas markets and stabilizing its aggregate business[28] Group 3: Transportation - ZTO Express is projected to achieve net profits of CNY 88.17 billion in 2024, increasing to CNY 104.11 billion by 2026, with a PE ratio improving from 13.39 to 11.34[10] - The "anti-involution" measures in the express delivery sector have led to a recovery in profitability, with significant improvements in average ticket prices since August 2025[33] Group 4: Energy Sector - ChuanTou Energy's net profit is expected to grow from CNY 45.08 billion in 2024 to CNY 52.59 billion in 2026, with a PE ratio decreasing from 15.93 to 13.65[10] - The company benefits from its stake in Yalong River Hydropower, which contributes significantly to its earnings[73] Group 5: Chemical Sector - Yara International's net profit is projected to increase from CNY 9.50 billion in 2024 to CNY 39.34 billion in 2026, with a PE ratio decreasing from 42.50 to 10.27[10] - The company is positioned as a leader in overseas potash mining, with significant reserves in Laos[49]

Economic Outlook - Domestic policy expectations are rising in December, and the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut is increasing, which may lead to improved external liquidity and a potential market rebound[5] - Key focus areas include the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference and the potential for a Federal Reserve rate cut, which could lead to a valuation recovery in the technology sector[5] Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes three main investment themes: 1. Technology growth sectors, particularly AI hardware like optical modules and semiconductors, as well as energy storage and lithium battery sectors[5] 2. Market hot spots such as robotics and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are expected to rebound[5] 3. Chemical industries benefiting from "anti-involution" policies that optimize supply-demand dynamics[5] Recommended Stocks - Key recommended sectors include metals, chemicals, electric new energy, machinery, banking, automotive, pharmaceuticals, electronics, communications, and media[5] - Specific stock recommendations include: - Metals: Huaxi Nonferrous (华锡有色) with an expected EPS growth from 1.04 in 2024 to 2.17 in 2027[28] - Chemicals: Yara International (亚钾国际) with an expected EPS growth from 1.02 in 2024 to 5.87 in 2027[28] - Electric New Energy: Slin (斯菱股份) with an expected EPS growth from 1.73 in 2024 to 2.21 in 2027[28] - Machinery: Hengli Hydraulic (恒立液压) with an expected EPS growth from 1.87 in 2024 to 3.18 in 2027[28] - Banking: Bank of Communications (交通银行) with a projected PB of 0.58x in 2025[18] - Automotive: Top Group (拓普集团) with an expected EPS growth from 1.78 in 2024 to 2.38 in 2027[28] - Pharmaceuticals: Junshi Biosciences (君实生物) with a projected EPS turnaround by 2027[28] - Electronics: Dongshan Precision (东山精密) with an expected EPS growth from 0.64 in 2024 to 3.72 in 2027[28] - Communications: Zhongji Xuchuang (中际旭创) with projected net profits of 105.19 billion in 2025[26] - Media: Kaiying Network (恺英网络) with a projected EPS growth from 0.76 in 2024 to 1.47 in 2027[28] Risk Factors - Economic recovery may fall short of expectations due to slow employment growth, declining corporate revenues, and reduced market demand[30] - Significant changes in individual stock fundamentals could adversely affect performance[30]

Investment Rating - The report provides a recommendation for the technology sector, specifically highlighting key stocks for December 2025 [4][8]. Core Insights - The report identifies several companies within the technology sector that are expected to perform well, including Zhaoyi Innovation, Dongshan Precision, Fourth Paradigm, Tax Friend, Zhongji Xuchuang, Huafeng Technology, Kaiying Network, and Perfect World [12][14][15][16][19]. Summary by Category Electronics - **Zhaoyi Innovation**: The company is in a price increase cycle for storage products, with NOR Flash expanding its market share and SLC NAND Flash improving its process technology. The revenue is expected to continue growing as it captures high-end markets [14]. - **Dongshan Precision**: The company is entering a growth phase driven by AI technology, with increased demand for data servers. It has made strategic acquisitions to enhance its position in optical communication and PCB sectors [14]. Computer - **Fourth Paradigm**: The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing penetration of AI across various industries. Its core product, the AI platform, is experiencing rapid revenue growth, and it holds a leading market share in machine learning platforms in China [15]. - **Tax Friend**: As a leader in financial and tax information technology, the company is leveraging AI to enhance its service offerings, which is expected to drive significant growth in high-value business segments [16]. Communication - **Zhongji Xuchuang**: The company is a leader in optical modules, with strong R&D capabilities and a robust overseas production capacity. It is expected to see significant profit growth from 2025 to 2027 [16]. - **Huafeng Technology**: The company is well-positioned to benefit from the high demand for AI computing power, with expectations of profit growth in the coming years [17]. Media - **Kaiying Network**: The company has a rich product pipeline and is expected to see growth from new game launches and collaborations. Its investments in AI gaming applications are also anticipated to drive future revenue [19]. - **Perfect World**: The company is focusing on developing new games and hosting major esports events, which are expected to contribute to its growth trajectory [19].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [9]. Core Insights - The company, North Navigation, is backed by the China Ordnance Industry Group and focuses on building three industrial ecosystems: navigation and control, military communication, and intelligent integrated connectivity, aiming to seize the high ground in the modernization of national defense and military equipment [2][5]. - The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has highlighted the effectiveness of the HIMARS system, prompting the U.S. to increase its procurement of long-range fire systems, which North Navigation is well-positioned to benefit from due to its capabilities in navigation and control for consumable equipment [9][6]. - The construction and application of a comprehensive network information system is a key focus of the "14th Five-Year Plan" for national defense and military modernization, with the company strategically investing in military communication and intelligent integrated connectivity [9][2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - North Navigation Control Technology Co., Ltd. is a subsidiary of the China Ordnance Industry Group, primarily engaged in dual-use products focusing on navigation control and ammunition information technology [5][18]. - The company aims to develop eight specialized technical systems, including guidance and control, AI target recognition, advanced materials, and intelligent manufacturing, to support its three industrial ecosystems [5][18]. Market Dynamics - The U.S. military has significantly increased its procurement of long-range fire systems, planning to acquire 500 HIMARS systems by 2028, up from a pre-conflict plan of only 105 units [6][53]. - Military communication networks are crucial for modern warfare, serving as the "nervous system" of the military, with a market space for data links potentially exceeding $40 billion [7][9]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to see substantial growth, with projected net profits of 213 million, 296 million, and 386 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 261%, 39%, and 30% [9][35].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Positive" investment rating for the semiconductor industry, marking it as the first rating of its kind [11]. Core Insights - Since early 2025, the semiconductor sector has experienced a surge driven by AI, followed by a brief adjustment period due to geopolitical tensions, slowing AI technology iterations, and macroeconomic uncertainties, leading to weakened growth expectations [4][19]. - The demand for inference computing power has rapidly increased with the proliferation of generative AI and large models, alongside strengthened localization strategies, resulting in a sustained rise in the prosperity of semiconductor hardware resources, particularly AI chips and storage chips [4][19]. - The valuation of the semiconductor sector has significantly recovered under the influence of AI, with the dynamic price-to-earnings ratios for semiconductor equipment and materials currently at the 85.2% and 95.9% percentiles, respectively [7][19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the domestic AI industry chain upgrade logic, suggesting that the deep integration of technology and applications is expected to create greater commercial value and accelerate industry growth [4][19]. Industry Overview - The global demand for semiconductors is driven by AI, with structural opportunities emerging domestically [8][29]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, revenue growth rates for major semiconductor equipment companies such as ASML, AMAT, LAM, TEL, and KLA were 20.8%, 3.6%, 28.6%, 10.0%, and 21.6%, respectively, indicating a continuation of a positive growth trend [8][29]. - The demand for storage devices has notably rebounded, with significant revenue growth in storage business segments for these companies [29]. - The report forecasts that global capital expenditures for 300mm wafer fab equipment will increase from $100 billion in 2025 to $138 billion in 2028, driven by AI computing clusters and advanced packaging demands [8][47]. Company-Specific Insights - In the equipment sector, companies with a high proportion of storage equipment, such as Tuojing Technology and Zhongwei Company, are expected to benefit from the expansion trend due to strong demand for storage chips [9]. - Long-term growth is anticipated for platform companies like North Huachuang, which have a significant leading advantage in the domestic market and can quickly strengthen their capabilities through mergers and acquisitions [9]. - In the materials sector, companies like Anji Technology and Xingfu Electronics have successfully achieved product substitution in the domestic market and are expected to further expand into overseas markets [9]. Market Demand - The report highlights a shift in market demand, with AI's share of semiconductor demand increasing significantly [29][55]. - AI semiconductor demand is projected to grow rapidly, with AMD estimating that the total market size for AI data centers will increase from $200 billion in 2025 to over $1 trillion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of over 40% [55][62]. Future Outlook - The semiconductor industry is expected to see a structural expansion in demand, particularly in AI data centers, which will significantly drive the need for advanced memory technologies like HBM [55][59]. - The report notes that the transition to HBM4 technology will begin in 2026, further increasing the demand for wafers and memory capacity in AI servers [59].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.272 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 43.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 151 million yuan, down 15.8% year-on-year but up 197.0% quarter-on-quarter. The non-recurring net profit was 139 million yuan, up 6.7% year-on-year and up 265.7% quarter-on-quarter [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.272 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 43.0% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 5.0%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 151 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 15.8% but a significant quarter-on-quarter increase of 197.0%. The non-recurring net profit was 139 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 265.7% [2][4]. Business Segments - The automotive parts business showed stable revenue growth in Q3 2025, with expected steady increases in profitability. The iron-lithium business is anticipated to see an increase in shipments both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter due to downstream customer demand and capacity expansion. The company reported an operating cash inflow of 174 million yuan and capital expenditures of 226 million yuan, with inventory rising to 1.36 billion yuan [11]. Strategic Developments - The company is expanding its iron-lithium production capacity through its subsidiary, Jiangxi Shenghua, which is investing in a new project with an annual capacity of 350,000 tons of high-density lithium iron phosphate, with a total investment of 4 billion yuan. This project is expected to enhance the company's market share in the iron-lithium sector [11]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve over 100% growth in shipments by 2026, driven by capacity expansion and cooperative agreements. The profitability in the iron-lithium segment is on a recovery trend, supported by increased high-density product ratios and reduced costs of lithium dihydrogen phosphate. The robotics business is also showing promising developments, indicating significant future potential [11].

- The report aims to enhance the original "Defensive and Offensive Dividend Strategy" by incorporating a rotation mechanism based on macroeconomic expectations, adjusting the weights of defensive and offensive scores during the second screening step[3][11][18] - The original strategy involves a two-step stock selection process: first, selecting the top 30% of stocks with high defensive scores from a high-dividend stock pool, and second, selecting the top 30 or 50 stocks based on offensive scores[18] - Defensive score is calculated as: $ 0.5 \times \text{3-year average dividend yield TTM} + 0.3 \times \text{480-day downside volatility} + 0.2 \times \text{3-year non-recurring ROE mean/standard deviation} $[75] - Offensive score is calculated as: $ 0.5 \times \text{forecast dividend yield} + 0.3 \times \text{relative momentum 240_20} + 0.2 \times \text{single-quarter non-recurring net profit year-on-year} $[75] - The enhanced strategy retains the first step of the original strategy and adjusts the weights of defensive and offensive scores based on macroeconomic expectations in the second step[11][74] - When macroeconomic expectations are revised upwards, the strategy selects the top 30 stocks based on offensive scores; when revised downwards, it selects the top 30 stocks based on a combination of 50% offensive and 50% defensive scores[74] - The enhanced strategy shows improved drawdown control, with the maximum drawdown reduced from 27.88% to 24.37% over the entire period from early 2016 to November 7, 2025[11][80][81] - The annualized return of the enhanced strategy is slightly improved, and the annualized volatility is slightly reduced compared to the original strategy[11][80][81] - The enhanced strategy's performance is evaluated by comparing annual returns, maximum drawdowns, and annualized volatility with the original strategy[80][81][82]