丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨海螺水泥（600585.SH） [Table_Title] 下行周期的成本优势凸显 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司披露三季报：实现收入 613 亿元，同比下降 10.06%；归属净利润 63 亿，同比增长 21%； 其中 25Q3 公司收入 200 亿元，同比下降 11.4%；归属净利润 19.4 亿元，同比增长 3.4%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] [Table_scodeMsg2] 海螺水泥（600585.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 下行周期的成本优势凸显 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 范超 李金宝 SAC：S0490513080001 SAC：S0490516040002 SFC：BQK473 SFC：BVZ972 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 公司披露三季报：实现收入 613 亿元，同比下降 10.06%；归属净利润 63 亿，同比增长 21%； 其中 25Q3 公司收入 200 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 22.53 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 14.63% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.01 billion yuan, down 49.03% year-on-year - In the third quarter alone, revenue was 6.78 billion yuan, a decline of 25.81% year-on-year, with net profit at 159 million yuan, down 71.01% year-on-year - The decline in performance is attributed to falling coal prices and increased water and soil conservation fees, alongside pressure on natural gas prices and a decrease in long-term contract gas sales - The approval and progress of the Marang coal mine project are expected to support future production growth, while the Zaisang oil and gas project is set to become a significant growth point after coal and natural gas [2][5][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 22.53 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.63% year-on-year - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.01 billion yuan, down 49.03% year-on-year - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 6.78 billion yuan, a decline of 25.81% year-on-year, and a net profit of 159 million yuan, down 71.01% year-on-year [2][5] Market Conditions - The domestic coal market saw a rebound in prices in Q3 2025, with the average price for 5000 kcal coal at 599.48 yuan/ton, up 6.77% quarter-on-quarter but down 20.32% year-on-year - The average price for 5500 kcal coal was 673.68 yuan/ton, up 5.16% quarter-on-quarter but down 20.95% year-on-year - Despite a 75.97% year-on-year increase in coal sales volume in the first half of 2025, Q3 saw a decline in both production and sales volume due to previous low prices [11] Future Growth Prospects - The Marang coal mine has received necessary approvals and is progressing well, which is expected to enhance production capacity - The Zaisang oil and gas project is advancing, with geological research and drilling activities ongoing, positioning it as a future growth driver [11]

丨证券研究报告丨 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 魏凯 王岭峰 SAC：S0490520080009 SAC：S0490521080001 SFC：BUT964 SFC：BWF918 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨中国石油（601857.SH） [Table_Title] 天然气销售大幅增利，凸显对冲油价能力 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2025 年三季度报告。2025 年前三季度，公司实现营业收入 21,692.56 亿元，同比下 降 3.9%；实现归母净利润 1,262.94 亿元，同比下降 4.9%。单三季度，公司实现营业收入 7,191.57 亿元，同比增长 2.3%；实现归母净利润 422.87 亿元，同比下降 3.9%。油气产量小 幅增长叠加降本增效，油气和新能源业务业绩变动优于同期油价变动；化工产品价格下跌，但 炼油业务带动炼油和化工板块业绩改善；销量增加及采购成本控制良好，天然气销售业务盈利 能力持续提高；注重股东回报，增持彰显公司信心。 research.95579.com ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The growth style's strong performance has weakened recently, while the value style may show stable performance, especially the dividend style which has better stability in the fourth quarter [18][21] - Value and high - dividend strategies are effective, and their combination can diversify return sources and enhance portfolio stability [8] - In a low - interest - rate environment, high - dividend products have greater allocation value, and both A - share and Hong Kong - stock high - dividend index products can serve as bond substitutes [30][34][37] - Value and high - dividend strategies have the advantage of being "offensive and defensive", with lower volatility and stronger stability [42] - Different value - based indices have their own characteristics. The CSI Dividend Low Volatility Index has high - dividend and low - volatility attributes; the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend Index is prominent in high - dividend attributes; the Guosen Free Cash Flow Index focuses on free cash flow and has growth potential [9] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Growth Style Slowdown and Value Style Potential - The growth style was strong at the beginning of 2025 but weakened from September to October 2025. The dividend style has stronger trend persistence and stability [18][21] - Historically, the growth style has higher return elasticity in the first three quarters but greater volatility in the fourth quarter. The dividend style has better stability throughout the year, especially in the fourth - quarter drawdown control [27][28] 2. Effectiveness of Value and High - Dividend Strategies - From the investor perspective, the value strategy focuses on undervalued assets, and the high - dividend strategy emphasizes dividend income. From the corporate fundamentals, value - investing targets companies with competitive advantages, and high - dividend companies have strong profitability. In the valuation system, the value strategy uses P/E and P/B, and the high - dividend strategy uses the dividend rate [8] 3. Value of High - Dividend Products in a Low - Interest - Rate Environment - Since 2006, China's 10 - year Treasury yield has mostly fluctuated between 2.8% - 4.6% and has been in a downward trend since 2017. In 2024, it entered the 1.0% era, making high - dividend assets more valuable [30] - High - dividend strategies perform well in a low - interest - rate environment. The Hong Kong - stock and A - share high - dividend index products can be used as bond substitutes when their dividend rates are significantly higher than Treasury yields [34][37] 4. "Offensive and Defensive" Advantage of Value and High - Dividend Strategies - Value and high - dividend strategy products have low volatility and stability. Their defensive ability comes from corporate fundamentals, investor structure, and valuation [42] - Comparing the net - value trends of common dividend indices and broad - based indices in Hong Kong and A - shares, the dividend indices have stronger long - term stability [42] 5. Importance of Value - Based Indices - Value - based indices mainly include dividend and free - cash - flow types. Hong Kong - stock and A - share dividends have different characteristics and industry distributions [51] - The CSI Dividend Low Volatility Index has low volatility and relatively stable returns. The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend Index has high volatility and greater return elasticity [56][57] 6. Specific Value - Based Indices CSI Dividend Low Volatility Index - It selects 50 securities with high dividends and low volatility, mainly concentrated in the banking, transportation, and construction industries [59][62] - It combines dividend and low - volatility strategies, with a stable dividend rate from 2018 - 2024, and has low volatility and stable returns [66][72][75] CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend Index - It selects high - dividend central - enterprise stocks in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, mainly concentrated in the financial, industrial, and energy industries [76][79] - It is prominent in high - dividend attributes, with a long - term dividend rate above 5% from 2017 - 2024, and has low valuation and high - dividend characteristics [84][91] Guosen Free Cash Flow Index - It selects 100 securities with high free - cash - flow rates, with a relatively dispersed industry distribution [93][95][97] - It focuses on free cash flow, has growth potential in revenue and net profit, and also has high - dividend and profitability attributes [103][106][111] 7. Yongying Fund's Value - Based Index - Related ETFs - Yongying Fund has three value - based index - related ETFs: Yongying CSI Dividend Low Volatility ETF, Yongying CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend ETF, and Yongying Guosen Free Cash Flow ETF, all using an index - based investment strategy [10][117]

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨招商轮船（601872.SH） [Table_Title] 业绩迎来拐点，有望油散共振 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 三季度，公司实现营业收入 67.3 亿，同比+32.2%；归母净利润 11.8 亿，同比+34.8%；扣非 归母净利润 9.9 亿元，同比+17.9%。油运、散运景气修复，经营符合预期；亚洲内集运景气回 调，经营业绩仍有韧性。业绩迎来拐点，有望油散共振。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 韩轶超 SAC：S0490512020001 SFC：BQK468 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 招商轮船（601872.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 业绩迎来拐点，有望油散共振 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 2025 年前三季度，公司实现营业收入 193.1 亿，同比+0.1%；归母净利润 33.0 亿，同比-2.1%； 扣非归母净利润 29.0 亿，同比-11.8 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2][7]. Core Views - The company has seen a recovery in the foreign trade oil transportation sector, with a narrowing decline in performance in the third quarter of 2025. The LNG business continues to show resilience due to long-term contracts, and the company is expected to benefit from increased LNG capacity and new acquisitions in the LPG sector [2][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 171.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 27.2 billion yuan, down 21.2% year-on-year. For the third quarter alone, revenue was 54.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.5% year-on-year, while net profit was 8.5 billion yuan, an increase of 4.4% year-on-year [5][11]. Business Segments - The foreign trade oil transportation sector has shown signs of recovery, with third-quarter revenues of 33.1 billion yuan, down 1.7% year-on-year. The gross profit was 4.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.2% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 14.9%, down 2.0 percentage points [11]. - The domestic trade segment saw a revenue of 13.6 billion yuan, down 7.1% year-on-year, but the gross margin improved to 26.5%, up 2.5 percentage points from the previous quarter [11]. - The LNG transportation segment generated 6.3 billion yuan in revenue, a decrease of 3.7% year-on-year, but gross profit increased by 4.7% year-on-year to 3.2 billion yuan, with a gross margin improvement [11]. Market Outlook - The company is expected to see profit growth from the continued deployment of LNG capacity and the acquisition of LPG transportation assets. The foreign trade oil transportation sector is at a turning point, with VLCC freight rates significantly rebounding due to OPEC+ production increases and other market dynamics [11]. - The average TCE for the Middle East to China route reached 77,000 USD/day in September and October, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 141.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 116.2% [11]. - Forecasted earnings for 2025-2027 are 48.4 billion, 61.7 billion, and 64.5 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 14.0, 11.0, and 10.5 times [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company reported a record high revenue in Q3, with total revenue for the first three quarters reaching 6.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.02 billion yuan, a decrease of 41.2% year-on-year [2][6]. - The Q3 revenue alone was 2.32 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.4%. The net profit for Q3 was 340 million yuan, down 47.0% year-on-year but up 10.6% quarter-on-quarter [2][6]. - The company is a leading domestic tire manufacturer with global leadership in intelligent manufacturing. The gradual release of domestic and overseas production capacity, combined with tariff advantages and high-end products backed by aviation tire technology, is expected to help the company establish a strong brand advantage and drive continuous growth in performance and brand [12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, the overall gross margin was 24.0%, down 11.4 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 15.8%, also down 11.4 percentage points year-on-year. This decline is attributed to rising raw material prices and fluctuations in overseas trade tariffs [12]. - The Q3 gross margin was 23.0%, down 16.3% year-on-year and 3.4% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to raw material price fluctuations and product mix adjustments [12]. Project Developments - The Morocco project is expected to continue ramping up production in Q4. The first phase of the project began operations on September 30, 2024, with a total annual production capacity of 12 million high-performance passenger car tires [12]. - The company is also expanding its international production capacity, with the second phase of its Thailand factory and the Morocco project being significant steps in its global development strategy [12]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.43 billion yuan, 2.13 billion yuan, and 2.51 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [12].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [9] Core Insights - The recent guidance from the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration emphasizes that by 2030, the new electricity demand will primarily be met by new energy generation, reinforcing the commitment to the "dual carbon" goals. The annual addition of over 200 million kilowatts of new capacity aligns with the overall target of reaching 3.6 billion kilowatts of wind and solar capacity by 2035 [2][12] - The report highlights that the market system will be improved to accommodate the characteristics of new energy output, which will alleviate pricing pressures and stabilize long-term revenue expectations for projects. The adjustment of pricing mechanisms for regulating power sources is expected to provide marginal support for industry value [12][12] Summary by Sections Policy Developments - The recent policy aims to enhance the consumption and regulation of new energy, supporting the construction of a new energy system and power system [6] - The policy sets a target for significant new energy capacity additions, indicating a shift towards high-quality development rather than merely increasing capacity [12] Market Mechanisms - The report discusses the need for a market system that adapts to the volatility of new energy output, including shortening trading cycles and promoting long-term purchase agreements to stabilize revenue expectations [12] - The development of a green certificate market and the integration of "electricity-certificates-carbon" markets are expected to effectively realize the environmental value of green electricity [12] Pricing Mechanisms - The report emphasizes the need to improve pricing mechanisms for regulatory resources, which will enhance the profitability of adjustment resources and stabilize revenue expectations [12] - The promotion of time-of-use pricing for residential users is expected to facilitate the reform of the electricity system and improve cost-sharing mechanisms [12] Investment Recommendations - As 2025 marks the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, the report suggests focusing on wind power over solar energy and recommends companies such as Longyuan Power, New Energy Green, and Huadian International for investment opportunities [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in net profit by 31.28% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, reaching 3.209 billion yuan, driven by improved operational efficiency and reduced financial costs [2][5] - The drilling business has seen a substantial improvement in day rates due to the commencement of high-day-rate projects, contributing to the overall revenue growth [2][5] - The company is committed to a "technology-driven" strategy, which is expected to support stable growth in its oilfield technology services business in the future [2][5] - The potential of offshore oil and gas resources is significant, and the company is expected to benefit from China National Offshore Oil Corporation's (CNOOC) ongoing efforts to increase reserves and production [2][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 34.854 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.54% [2][5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the third quarter was 1.246 billion yuan, reflecting a 46.13% year-on-year growth [2][5] - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters reached 18.20%, an increase of 0.96 percentage points year-on-year [11] Drilling Business - The company’s drilling platforms operated for 14,784 days in the first three quarters, a 12.3% increase year-on-year [11] - The average day rate for platforms in the first half of 2025 was 91,000 USD/day, up 5.8% year-on-year, with semi-submersible platform day rates increasing by 27.6% [11] Technology and Market Strategy - The oilfield technology service business has seen a growth in operational volume despite a slight decline in market size [11] - The company aims to increase the revenue share of its oilfield technology services from 57% in 2024 to 60% by 2030 [11] Market Outlook - The global exploration and development of offshore and unconventional oil and gas resources are expected to be key growth areas, with CNOOC's capital expenditure budget for 2025 set between 125 billion and 135 billion yuan [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Insights - Geely Automobile reported a total sales volume of 307,000 units in October 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 35.5% and a month-on-month increase of 12.5% [2][4]. - Cumulative sales from January to October 2025 reached 2.477 million units, up 44.3% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company is expected to enter a new product era supported by the GEA architecture, with positive developments across its brands including Zeekr, Lynk & Co, and Galaxy [7]. - The transition to new energy vehicles is progressing smoothly, with scale effects expected to enhance profitability [7]. - Geely's strong foundation in fuel vehicles and innovative overseas expansion strategies are opening new markets [7]. - The company is set to launch 10 new energy models in 2025, with significant advancements in smart driving capabilities [7]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - October 2025 sales reached 307,000 units, with Geely brand, Lynk & Co, and Zeekr sales at 245,000, 40,000, and 21,000 units respectively [7]. - Galaxy brand achieved 127,000 units in October, marking a 100.8% increase year-on-year [7]. - Exports in October totaled 42,000 units, up 22.6% year-on-year [7]. - New energy vehicle sales in October were 178,000 units, accounting for 57.9% of total sales, a year-on-year increase of 63.6% [7]. Product Strategy - Geely plans to launch 10 new energy models in 2025, including five new models and several facelifts [7]. - The company is enhancing its smart driving capabilities, with new models expected to feature advanced driving technologies [7]. Financial Outlook - The projected net profit for 2025 is 16.1 billion yuan, with a corresponding price-to-earnings ratio of 10.6X [7].