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理想汽车-W:年报点评:毛利率短期受优惠政策影响有所波动,看好后续新车周期贡献增量-20250317
长江证券· 2025-03-17 09:20
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [4]. Core Views - The report highlights that the gross profit margin is temporarily affected by preferential policies, but the upcoming new vehicle cycle is expected to contribute to incremental growth [4]. - In Q4 2024, the company achieved sales of 159,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 20.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.8%, generating revenue of 44.27 billion yuan, which is a 6.1% increase year-on-year and a 3.3% increase quarter-on-quarter [2][4]. - The vehicle gross margin reached 19.7%, down 3.0 percentage points year-on-year and 1.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to the impact of a December interest-free car purchase policy [4]. Summary by Sections Sales and Revenue - In Q4 2024, the average selling price per vehicle was approximately 269,000 yuan, with total vehicle sales revenue of 42.64 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.2% [4]. - The company expects Q1 2025 delivery volumes to be between 88,000 and 93,000 vehicles, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.5% to 15.7% [4]. Profitability - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.52 billion yuan in Q4 2024, a decrease of 37.7% year-on-year [4]. - The net profit margin was 9.1%, down 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, while the profit per vehicle was 25,000 yuan, a decrease of 9,000 yuan year-on-year [4]. Product Strategy - The company has a clear product planning strategy with a lineup of "four range-extended electric vehicle models and one high-voltage pure electric model," covering the market above 200,000 yuan [4]. - The company has optimized its direct sales channel structure, with 500 retail centers across 150 cities as of the end of February 2025 [4]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates strong new vehicle cycles starting in 2025, which will open up sales opportunities for the company [4]. - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 9.77 billion, 14.18 billion, and 19.65 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 22.7X, 15.6X, and 11.3X [4].
贝壳-W深度覆盖报告:房屋经纪王者归来,三翼齐飞开拓未来
长江证券· 2025-03-17 09:19
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [10] Core Views - The company's brokerage business has a strong competitive moat that is difficult for competitors to surpass, with its direct brand, Lianjia, occupying a core market position. The company is expanding its market share in lower-tier cities through its platform, Beilian. The second-hand market is improving while the new housing market in lower-tier cities remains sluggish, providing a comfortable operating environment for the company. The second-hand business is expected to increase in volume, while the new housing business is expected to see price increases, leading to continuous performance growth and amplified profit elasticity due to operational leverage. The home decoration and rental businesses may not contribute significantly to profits in the short term but are expected to provide substantial performance growth in the medium term. Given its competitive advantages, relative scarcity, potential performance elasticity, and the influx of incremental funds post-listing, the company is expected to enjoy a certain valuation premium in the short term. From a medium to long-term perspective, there is still room for improvement in brokerage business share, and the home decoration and rental sectors can contribute to potential growth, with data assets holding significant value elasticity, making the company a strategic allocation target [2][9][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leading integrated online and offline real estate transaction and service platform, focusing on digitalizing and smartening the residential service industry. It provides a one-stop, high-quality, and efficient service including second-hand and new housing transactions, rentals, home decoration, and home services. In 2023, the company's total transaction volume (GTV) reached 3.14 trillion yuan, with the proportion of second-hand and new housing brokerage business maintaining over 95% [18][22]. Competitive Moat - The company has built a competitive moat through high and lengthy infrastructure construction, creating a barrier that competitors find hard to cross. The ACN network breaks traditional competitive dilemmas, enabling a win-win cooperation model and expanding single-store economies to regional economies. The company's self-operated brand, Lianjia, has successfully captured customer mindshare through its property dictionary, genuine listings, and service commitments, resulting in significant premium in customer acquisition and commission rates compared to industry averages [6][36]. Market Share and Profit Elasticity - The company’s market share in the second-hand and new housing GTV was 28.6% and 9.7% respectively in 2023. The brokerage business is transitioning from scale victory to efficiency priority, with Lianjia promoting a large store model and leveraging the Beilian platform for continuous expansion. The impact of commission reductions in Beijing is gradually diminishing, and the commission rate for second-hand transactions has shown signs of recovery [7][9]. Business Expansion and Future Growth - The home decoration business has rapidly grown, with revenue exceeding 10 billion yuan in 2023. The company is shifting focus from blind expansion to solidifying internal capabilities and enhancing management efficiency. The rental business, "Shengxin Rent," has also expanded rapidly, contributing over 15% to rental income, and is expected to maintain good growth momentum. The company is exploring new profit points through its data assets and partnerships with developers [8][9][10]. Financial Performance - The company achieved revenue of 77.8 billion yuan in 2023, with the second-hand and new housing businesses accounting for 36% and 39% respectively. The home decoration business saw significant growth, reaching 10.9 billion yuan, while rental income reached 9.8 billion yuan, accounting for 16%. The overall gross margin improved to 27.9%, and the company successfully turned a profit with a net profit of 5.9 billion yuan in 2023 [30][32]. Valuation and Shareholder Returns - The company emphasizes shareholder returns through substantial dividends and buybacks, ensuring a solid bottom-line return for shareholders. The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are 8.11 billion, 8.91 billion, and 10.23 billion yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 25.8, 23.4, and 20.4 times. Given its competitive advantages and potential performance elasticity, the company is expected to enjoy a valuation premium in the short term [9][10].
濮耐股份:海外新市场,镍钴新领域,质变开启-20250317
长江证券· 2025-03-17 09:18
报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司是国内耐火材料龙头,过往行业高度分散的格局和下游需求端的整体承压,导致主业增长 较为平稳。当前公司迎来两大显著变化:1、加速海外扩张,公司选择在美国和塞尔维亚建厂, 海外耐材竞争环境和盈利水平均优于国内,跨区域布局有望带来整体增长的加速。2、公司依托 西藏高品位菱镁矿,积极布局活性氧化镁产品,其可用于金属镍和钴的沉积,进而为公司带来 新的增长曲线;当前公司和格林美公司的合作已经迈出破冰第一步,期待更多客户取得进展。 联合研究丨公司深度丨濮耐股份(002225.SZ) [Table_Title] 海外新市场,镍钴新领域,质变开启 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC:S0490512070002 SAC:S0490513080001 SAC:S0490516040002 SFC:BQT626 SFC:BQK473 肖百桓 SAC:S0490522080001 王鹤涛 范超 李金宝 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 28 %% %% %% %% research.9 ...
运输行业2025夏秋时刻表点评:时刻同比负增,冗余供给“挤水分”
长江证券· 2025-03-17 09:17
[Table_Title] 2025 夏秋时刻表点评:时刻同比负增,冗余供 给"挤水分" 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 夏秋时刻表点评:时刻同比负增,冗余供给"挤水分" 出行链:国内运量小幅增长,价格跌幅持续收窄 海运:油运小幅反弹,散运延续上涨 物流:大宗运价同比转正,蒙煤运量环比走弱 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨运输 SAC:S0490512020001 SAC:S0490520020001 SAC:S0490519060002 SAC:S0490520080027 SAC:S0490524120001 SFC:BQK468 韩轶超 赵超 鲁斯嘉 张银晗 胡俊文 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 2025 夏秋时刻表点评:时刻同比负增,冗余供 2] 给"挤水分" [Table_Summary2] 2025 夏秋时刻表点评:时刻同比负增,冗余供给"挤水分" 民航局近日披露 2025 年夏秋航季民航计划飞行时刻表。整体来看,2025 夏秋航季,民 ...
耀看光伏第4期:产业链加速涨价,强现实的超预期
长江证券· 2025-03-17 08:28
丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨电气设备 [Table_Title] 耀看光伏第 4 期—— 产业链加速涨价,强现实的超预期 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 近期光伏产业链持续涨价,涨价幅度和速度均优于预期。展望短期供需两侧走势,我们认为产 业链涨价持续,高点价格有望进一步超出预期。 分析师及联系人 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Author] 邬博华 曹海花 王耀 任佳惠 SAC:S0490514040001 SAC:S0490522030001 SAC:S0490524120006 SAC:S0490524070005 SFC:BQK482 [Table_Title 耀看光伏第2]4 期—— 产业链加速涨价,强现实的超预期 [Table_Summary2] 产业链涨价提速,组件攀至 0.75 元/W 近期,光伏产业链价格持续、多次上涨,涨价速度、幅度超出市场此前预期。具体来看:1)组 件环节,Infolink Consulting 口径,国内分布式项目组件均价 0.73 元/瓦,周环比上涨 1 分/W, 春节后 ...
电力设备与新能源行业周观点:主线涨价超预期,新方向关注GTC大会
长江证券· 2025-03-17 08:28
周观点0316:主线涨价超预期,新方向 关注GTC大会 长江证券研究所电力设备与新能源研究小组 2025-03-16 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • 评级 看好 维持 分析师及联系人 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 本周电新板块行情回顾 00 图:本周电新板块行情回顾 分析师 邬博华 分析师 曹海花 分析师 司鸿历 分析师 叶之楠 SAC执业证书编号:S0490514040001 SAC执业证书编号:S0490522030001 SAC执业证书编号:S0490520080002 SAC执业证书编号:S0490520090003 SFC执业证书编号:BQK482 SFC执业证书编号:BUD284 分析师 袁澎 分析师 王耀 分析师 任佳惠 分析师 周圣钧 SAC执业证书编号:S0490524010001 SAC执业证书编号:S0490524120006 SAC执业证书编号:S0490524070005 SAC执业证书编号:S0490524120003 CJ电新指数 光伏 储能 锂电 风电 电力设备 其他电源 ...
红利银行时代系列十四:险资再举牌,瑞众人寿增持中信银行
长江证券· 2025-03-17 08:27
丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨银行 [Table_Title] 险资再举牌,瑞众人寿增持中信银行 ——红利银行时代系列十四 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 从红利投资价值角度,虽然 2 月以来国债收益率持续触底回升,但我们认为这是对去年四季度 下行速率过快、预期过于极致的一种修复和调整。从中长期角度,低利率环境仍将持续存在, 而金融机构尤其保险公司的负债成本下降依然比较缓慢,因此对于大型资本而言资产荒的压力 将持续存在。科技产业超预期的上行周期能够有效解决部分投资机构的投资需求,但对于低风 险偏好、追求稳定回报率的大型资本而言,依然难以满足配置需求。因此,我们认为稳定高股 息的银行股依然是核心红利配置资产。 分析师及联系人 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 险资再举牌,瑞众人寿增持中信银行 2] ——红利银行时代系列十四 [Table_Summary2] 瑞众人寿举牌中信银行 H 股,港股大型银行连续获增持 [Table_Author] 马祥云 盛悦菲 SAC:S0490521120002 SAC:S04 ...
福能股份:控股股东计划增持,彰显长期发展信心-20250317
长江证券· 2025-03-17 08:14
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The controlling shareholder, Fujian Energy Group, plans to increase its stake in the company by investing between RMB 100 million and RMB 200 million within six months from the announcement date, demonstrating confidence in the company's long-term development [2][5]. - As of March 13, the company's PE (TTM) valuation has decreased to 9.08 times, which is at the 7.94% percentile of the past ten years, while the PB valuation has fallen to 1.03 times, at the 8.29% percentile, indicating that the stock price is close to breaking net asset value [2][10]. - The company has a robust project reserve, with a total installed capacity of 6.07 million kilowatts approved by the National Development and Reform Commission, which is expected to significantly enhance its growth potential [10]. Summary by Sections Shareholder Actions - Fujian Energy Group and its affiliates plan to increase their holdings in the company through centralized bidding, with no set price range for the purchase, reflecting a strong commitment to maintaining the company's market value [5][10]. Financial Performance - The company reported total revenue of RMB 14.695 billion for 2023, with projected revenues of RMB 14.455 billion, RMB 14.043 billion, and RMB 15.439 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [13]. - The net profit for 2023 was RMB 3.197 billion, with forecasts of RMB 3.510 billion, RMB 3.531 billion, and RMB 3.918 billion for the following three years [13]. Growth Potential - The company is actively expanding its project portfolio, including offshore wind power and thermal power projects, which are expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth [10]. - The company’s EPS is projected to be RMB 1.04 for 2024 and 2025, and RMB 1.16 for 2026, with corresponding PE ratios of 8.71, 8.66, and 7.81 [10][13].
中远海能:地缘重构破局油运,油轮巨头筑基扬帆-20250317
长江证券· 2025-03-17 08:14
公司研究丨深度报告丨中远海能(600026.SH) [Table_Title] 地缘重构破局油运,油轮巨头筑基扬帆 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 中远海能专门从事能源运输,自有油轮运力规模 2,050 万 DWT,运力规模居全球首位。公司目 前主要有内贸油运、LNG 运输和外贸油运三大业务,分别具有牌照化、项目制和周期性的特征。 内贸与 LNG 业务为盾,随着未来 4 年公司船队规模扩张,利润(含投资收益)增长约 55%, 夯实基本盘。外贸业务为矛,具有显著利润弹性。俄乌冲突缓解、对伊制裁趋严,将助推油运 景气周期形成闭环,提振合规市场油运需求,同时拆船加速消除供给焦虑。投资角度,二手船 价较高且新老船价差收窄体现了产业的乐观情绪,基于二手船价的重置成本提供估值支撑。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 韩轶超 SAC:S0490512020001 SFC:BQK468 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 26 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 2 中远海能(600026.S ...
投资银行业与经纪业行业周报:业绩集中披露在即,增配高景气个股
长江证券· 2025-03-17 08:13
行业研究丨行业周报丨投资银行业与经纪业 [Table_Title] 业绩集中披露在即,增配高景气个股 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 本周板块大幅上涨,低基数下非银板块 Q1 业绩增速预计延续高位,建议乐观以待。我们建议重点关注低 估值绩优个股,短期内可适当参与主题投资,中长期布局板块相应红利风格个股。 分析师及联系人 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Author] 吴一凡 谢宇尘 SAC:S0490519080007 SAC:S0490521020001 SFC:BUV596 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 投资银行业与经纪业 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 业绩集中披露在即,增配高景气个股 2] [Table_Summary2] 核心观点: 2025 年年初以来日均成交额同比+78.4%,融资余额同比+28.1%,万得全 A 指数上涨 6.4%, 近期权益市场热度维持高位,本周板块整体大幅上涨,后续仍看好高景气低估值行情延续。1、 板块行情节奏上持续在回调中配置高景气低估值个股,耐心等待催化;2、金融供给侧改革加 ...