Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [6] Core Insights - Lithium prices have once again broken through, indicating a potential second round of upward movement in equity [2] - The expected recovery in supply and demand fundamentals is strengthening, with the cancellation of mining licenses for 27 expired mining rights having a minimal impact on actual supply [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of positioning in lithium equity given the current price misalignment [4] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Inflation data is lower than expected, increasing the probability of interest rate cuts, leading to a continued upward trend in gold and silver [4] - The report anticipates significant gold purchases by central banks towards the end of the year, driving gold prices higher [4] - Silver is expected to outperform due to macroeconomic conditions and low inventory levels, with a focus on silver stocks' elasticity [4] Industrial Metals - Copper and aluminum are expected to see a spring rally, supported by enhanced interest rate cut expectations [4] - Recent data shows a rise in copper and aluminum prices, with LME three-month copper up by 2.8% and aluminum by 2.4% [4] - The report suggests that the copper and aluminum sectors still have low valuations, making them attractive for investment [4] Energy and Minor Metals - The report highlights a turning point for lithium rights in 2026, with a strong demand cycle anticipated [4] - Strategic metals like rare earths and tungsten are expected to see a revaluation, with significant improvements in company performance [4] - The cobalt market is projected to face shortages from 2025 to 2027, with prices expected to rise significantly [4]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨房地产 [Table_Title] 如何理解高质量发展的政策导向和内涵？ ——房地产行业周度观点更新 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 房地产行业高质量发展，要系统性处理好长期和短期、顶层设计与因城施策、市场和保障、增 量和存量、促发展与防风险等关系，短期、因城施策和防风险等维度的政策指向依然比较清晰， 需求端的支撑不可或缺。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490525060001 SFC：BUV416 刘义 侯兆熔 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 中央：住建部长发表署名文章指出，党的十八大以来，我国房地产市场快速发展，城镇人均住 房建筑面积超过 40 平方米，户均住房超过 1.1 套，建设各类保障性住房和棚改安置住房 6800 多万套。全面落实推动房地产高质量发展的重点任务，提出几点要求：优化保障性住房供给， 完善以公租房、保租房和配售型保障房为主的多层次住房保障体系；科学安排土地供应、引导 配置金融资源，坚持因城施策、精准施策、一城 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [9] Core Insights - In the first three quarters of 2025, the Chinese fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) market exhibited distinct characteristics of "price reduction, volume increase, structural differentiation, and channel reshaping." The overall market average price decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed, indicating price stabilization. Third to fifth-tier cities have become the main drivers of sales recovery, while competition in first and second-tier cities has intensified. Notably, packaged food sales led with a growth rate of 3.4%, although the momentum is slowing due to price sensitivity. Beverages are the only category to experience a decline, significantly impacted by price wars and competition from freshly brewed tea drinks [2][4][27]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The FMCG market in China is characterized by a "price reduction, volume increase" trend, with a 2.4% year-on-year decline in average prices, which is stabilizing. Sales growth in lower-tier cities contributed approximately 80% to market growth, with a year-on-year increase of 4-6% [17][21][27]. Category Performance - Packaged food sales grew by 3.4% year-on-year, driven by stable demand for core and snack food categories. However, growth momentum is slowing, with quarterly growth rates of 4.6%, 4.2%, and 2.9%. In contrast, the beverage category saw a 1.1% decline in sales, despite a 3.6% increase in volume, primarily due to a 4.6% drop in average prices [21][25][27]. Channel Dynamics - The channel landscape is evolving, with traditional offline channels continuing to shrink. Emerging formats such as warehouse membership stores and snack collection stores are experiencing rapid growth, with increases of approximately 40%, 51%, and 92% respectively. E-commerce channels also showed resilience with a growth rate of about 7% [22][27]. Subsector Performance - The food and beverage sector has seen a mixed performance, with the overall index down 3.66% since the beginning of the year, lagging behind the CSI 300 index. However, subsectors like snack foods, food composites, and soft drinks have shown relative strength in recent weeks [29][35]. Industry Trends - The liquor industry is undergoing strategic adjustments, with major companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye implementing market reforms. Fast food and coffee brands are leveraging price adjustments and co-branding initiatives to attract consumers. The soft drink sector is focusing on product innovation and brand exposure, while the dairy sector is investing in capacity expansion and governance changes [35][36][37].

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨钢铁 [Table_Title] 回顾反内卷政策，2026 年钢铁分级管理怎么走？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 回顾 2025 年，反内卷无疑是钢铁行业最受关注的交易主线。作为低价内卷的典型行业，也是 过往供改的重点行业，市场期待随着反内卷的渐进深化，钢铁的供给侧具有出清的预期。尽管 2025 年暂未看到反内卷的具体举措落地，但通过对重点政策的系统性梳理，可以清晰地理出 "分级管理、扶优劣汰"的调控思路。随着 2026 年政策抓手和配套政策的进一步完善，行业 有望迎来供给侧出清的机遇。考虑到近年来产量压减政策的延续性和"扶优劣汰"的思路，不 规范企业或具有更大的产量压减幅度，从而具有市场化出清的预期。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 赵超 易轰 吕士诚 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490520080012 SAC：S0490525080005 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUY139 SFC：BUZ394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research ...

- The report focuses on the performance of stock selection factors in 2025, highlighting the effectiveness of factors such as transaction count, liquidity, crowding, price stability, and reversal in stock selection across the market [1][5][15] - Factors are categorized into two main groups: volume-price factors and growth factors. Volume-price factors are further divided into two representative categories: price stability and reversal, while liquidity, crowding, and transaction count serve as average representatives of volume-price factors [6][24] - The construction of major factors involves market capitalization and industry neutrality, outlier removal, and standardization, followed by equal-weight synthesis into major factors [13] - Sub-factors are detailed with their calculation methods, such as residual volatility derived from the Fama-French three-factor model regression residual volatility, turnover rate variation coefficient calculated as turnover rate divided by the standard deviation over the mean, and entropy of transaction volume proportion using the entropy formula [13] - The report provides statistical data on the performance of major factors, including IC, ICIR, excess returns, maximum drawdowns, IR, long-short returns, long-short maximum drawdowns, and long-short Sharpe ratios. For example, liquidity factor achieved an IC of 9.72%, ICIR of 1.08, excess return of 23.67%, and IR of 3.43 [15][16] - Sub-factors with notable performance include short-term reversal (IC 6.27%, ICIR 1.21, excess return 4.86%), residual volatility (IC 9.42%, ICIR 1.22, excess return 1.53%), and turnover rate (IC 10.75%, ICIR 1.29, excess return 17.46%) [17] - The report highlights the time-series performance of factors, noting that the main profit periods for all factors were concentrated between January and November 2025, with significant drawdowns occurring between September and December 2025. Growth, SUE, and price stability factors had lower profit levels and higher drawdowns, while liquidity factors had higher profit levels and higher drawdowns [19][20][23] - The correlation analysis of excess returns among factors shows that price stability has a high correlation with other factors, while reversal has a low correlation with other factors. Liquidity, crowding, and transaction count factors exhibit low mutual correlation [21][24]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" and is maintained [15] Core Insights - The report provides a forward-looking analysis of the transportation industry for Q4 2025, highlighting improvements in passenger demand and operational efficiencies across various sub-sectors [2][6] Aviation - The aviation sector is expected to see marginal demand improvements, with significant reductions in losses anticipated for Q4 2025. Domestic business demand is stabilizing, and international flights continue to perform well despite short-term disruptions from flight cancellations [6][23] Airports - Domestic airport traffic is projected to increase, with international flights also climbing. Revenue is expected to improve as a result of rising passenger volumes and operational efficiencies [7][26] Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is experiencing a slowdown in growth but is improving profitability through price adjustments and a focus on high-value services. The net profit is expected to turn positive in Q4 2025 [8][29] Logistics - The logistics sector is stabilizing at the bottom of its performance cycle, with cross-border logistics showing signs of recovery. However, overall demand remains weak, leading to a slight decline in performance for major supply chain players [9][31] Maritime Transport - The maritime sector is witnessing a divergence in profitability among different vessel types. While container shipping faces pressure on earnings, oil and bulk shipping are expected to see improvements due to increased demand and operational efficiencies [10][32] Ports - Port operations are expected to benefit from improved handling of bulk goods and stable container throughput, supported by easing trade tensions and increased exports to ASEAN and EU regions [11][38] Highways - The highway sector is projected to see limited growth, with stable profitability expected as truck traffic shows slight improvements compared to the previous year [12][40] Railways - The railway sector is experiencing a split in performance, with passenger transport growth accelerating while freight transport growth is slowing down. The focus on expanding non-coal business is expected to impact profitability negatively [13][42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [9] Core Insights - The express delivery industry is experiencing a slowdown in price increases, leading to accelerated differentiation among leading companies. The average price of express delivery in November has shown signs of recovery, while the growth rate of delivery volume has significantly decreased, driving faster market share differentiation. The report is optimistic about leading companies such as Zhongtong Express and YTO Express. Additionally, SF Express has initiated a "post-advantage" policy to optimize its product structure, with expectations of a profit rebound in Q4 [2][6][16] Logistics Sector Summary - In the logistics sector, the express delivery industry saw a price recovery in November, with the average delivery price decreasing by 8.3% year-on-year. The delivery volume growth rate fell to 5.0%, down 2.9 percentage points month-on-month. Major players like YTO, Yunda, and Shentong reported varying performance, with YTO's volume increasing by 13.6% year-on-year, while Yunda's volume decreased by 4.2% [15][16] - The average daily traffic volume for coal transport in Ganci Maodu was 1,388 vehicles, a decrease of 93 vehicles from the previous week, while the average price for short-distance transport remained stable [19] Passenger Transport Sector Summary - In the passenger transport sector, domestic passenger volume showed a 4% year-on-year increase, while international passenger volume increased by 9%. The average seat occupancy rate for domestic flights improved by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, and the same for international flights also increased by 0.8 percentage points [7][31] - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in travel demand, with expectations of marginal revenue improvement due to tightening supply and significant cost improvements [7][29] Maritime Sector Summary - In the maritime sector, oil transportation rates have decreased, with the average VLCC-TCE rate dropping by 11.2% to $102,000 per day. The market is currently experiencing limited new cargo availability, leading to a cautious outlook. The SCFI index for foreign trade container shipping rose by 3.1% to 1,553 points, while the domestic container shipping index also saw an increase [8][55] - The report highlights the impact of the reopening of the Red Sea on long-distance shipping routes and suggests monitoring regional small and medium-sized shipping companies like Haifeng International due to changes in regional shipping patterns following the closure of Hainan Island [8][55]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] AI 产业跟踪：谷歌正式发布 Gemini 3.0 Flash， 关注大模型降本与商业化落地进展 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 12 月 18 日，谷歌正式发布 Gemini 3.0 Flash，旨在用更低的成本提供前沿的智能水平，面向 所有用户推出。我们认为基模是模型家族的根基，Flash 版本强的核心还是建立在强基模的基 础上进行蒸馏。当前时点 AI 行业进入商业化落地阶段，成本仍是限制用户使用的核心因素，因 此降本是产业的系统性工作与大趋势。从变现角度来说，AI 的变现还是依赖现有互联网商业模 式，过往生态依然重要、头部玩家马太效应更加显著，也是这一轮 AI 商业化落地的关键。 分析师及联系人 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Author] 宗建树 刘思缘 SAC：S0490520030004 SFC：BUX668 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 软件与服务 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title AI 产业跟踪：谷歌正式发布 2] Gemini 3.0 Fl ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] 蚂蚁阿福验证赛道高景气，医疗或将成为原 生 AI 垂类应用突破点 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 12 月 15 日，蚂蚁集团正式宣布旗下 AI 健康应用"AQ"完成品牌升级，全新命名为"蚂蚁阿 福"，目前月活跃用户已经达到 1500 万，稳居健康管理类 AI 应用首位。当前时点，医疗信息 化正从 B 端建设迈向 C 端价值再造的新阶段，放眼全球，AI+Healthcare 也是巨头重点投资方 向， AI 医疗有望成为 AI 垂类应用破局点，建议重点关注具备场景卡位优势与技术落地能力的 医疗信息化龙头。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520030004 SFC：BUX668 宗建树 刘思缘 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 软件与服务 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 蚂蚁阿福验证赛道高景气，医疗或将成为原生 2] AI 垂类应用突破点 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 12 月 15 日，蚂蚁集团正式 ...

[Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨四川路桥（600039.SH） [Table_Title] 大股东蜀道新董事长到位，关注公司红利价值 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 12 月 17 日下午，蜀道投资集团有限责任公司召开干部大会，任命张胜同志任蜀道投资集团有 限责任公司党委书记、董事长。 分析师及联系人 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Author] 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% [Table_scodeMsg2] 四川路桥（600039.SH） cjzqdt11111 research.95579.com 1 SAC：S0490520080022 SAC：S0490522060005 SAC：S0490525070008 SAC：S0490525080003 SFC：BUT917 张弛 张智杰 袁志芃 龚子逸 [Table_Title2] 大股东蜀道新董事长到位，关注公司红利价值 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 公司拟以支付现金 6.28 亿元的方式收购关联方新筑股份持有的新筑交科 100%股权、新筑股 份其它与桥梁功能部件业务有关的资产和 ...