长江证券研究所电力设备与新能源研究小组 2025-11-26 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 分析师 邬博华 分析师 曹海花 SAC执业证书编号：S0490514040001 SAC执业证书编号：S0490522030001 SFC执业证书编号：BQK482 分析师及联系人 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • 评级 看好 维持 新能源作为产业发展新增长的现状与 未来 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 01 现状：全球竞争力突出，供需矛盾导致盈利承压 02 未来：迈向高质量发展，业务延伸打造新增长点 目 录 2.1 从高速发展迈向高质量发展 2.2 企业谋求出海带动量利齐升 2.3 业务延伸打造第二增长曲线 %% research.95579.com 3 01 现状：全球竞争力突出，供需矛盾导致盈利承压 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 在光伏需求爆发背景下，供给端迎来快速扩张，目前各环节产能均超过1000GW，产能利用率大幅下降，其中硅料环节甚至低于50%。 图：2020年以来全球光伏装机快速增长 0% 10% 20 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the advertising industry [7]. Core Insights - In August 2025, outdoor advertising spending totaled 22.718 billion yuan, representing an 8% year-on-year increase and a 1% month-on-month increase, with a net value growth of 2% after excluding scope and list price changes [2][10]. - The outdoor traditional media sector continues to show growth, driven by increased spending in subway, airport, and bus station media, with a total advertising expenditure of 7.199 billion yuan in August, reflecting a 6.4% year-on-year increase [10]. - The top five industries for outdoor video media spending in August were websites, beverages, software, cosmetics, and services, accounting for 64% of total spending, with significant increases in the website and software sectors [10]. Summary by Sections Outdoor Advertising Market - The outdoor advertising market showed signs of recovery in August, with a total expenditure of 22.718 billion yuan, an 8% increase year-on-year and a 1% increase month-on-month [2][5]. - Traditional outdoor media, particularly subway advertising, remains dominant, with a 59% share of total spending [10]. Media Performance - The performance of building LCD media is robust, with a 13% year-on-year increase and a 3% month-on-month increase in August [10]. - High-speed rail video advertising saw a 3% year-on-year decrease but a 15% month-on-month increase, indicating a slight recovery [10]. Industry Trends - The report highlights a continued increase in the share of spending by leading industries, particularly in the website and software sectors, which saw significant growth due to increased investments from major players like Taobao and Meituan [10]. - Building media is expected to maintain high demand due to its effective targeting of high-consumption demographics, supported by a recovering economy [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba is "Buy" and is maintained [8][9]. Core Insights - The recent financial report highlights several strengths: first, the controllable investment in Taobao Flash Sale has significantly boosted the main site, with expectations for continued improvement in user experience (UE) through scale effects and operational efficiency optimization. Second, the cloud business is experiencing sustained acceleration in growth, with potential for high growth momentum in the future. From a medium to long-term perspective, investments in instant retail are expected to drive high-frequency consumer spending, while the cloud business opens a second growth curve. Overall, the report is optimistic about the company's investment opportunities, projecting Non-GAAP net profits of 109.5 billion, 167.2 billion, and 195.4 billion yuan for FY2026-2028 [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY2026Q2, the company reported revenue of 247.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%. Excluding the disposed businesses of Sun Art Retail and Intime, revenue grew by 15%. Operating profit reached 5.4 billion yuan, down 85% year-on-year, while Non-GAAP net profit was 10.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 72% [6][8]. - The EBITA for the Chinese e-commerce group was 10.5 billion yuan, down 76% year-on-year, primarily due to profitability pressure from investments in instant retail. However, the main e-commerce site saw customer management revenue grow by 10% year-on-year, driven by increased penetration and traffic from instant retail [10]. - Instant retail revenue reached 22.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60%, with significant improvements in unit economics since September [10]. - Alibaba Cloud's revenue grew by 34% year-on-year, with a stable EBITA margin. The growth is largely attributed to AI-driven products, which have seen triple-digit year-on-year growth for nine consecutive quarters [10]. Financial Forecast - The financial forecast for Alibaba indicates projected revenues of 1,051.9 billion yuan for FY2026, 1,215.6 billion yuan for FY2027, and 1,364.5 billion yuan for FY2028. Non-GAAP net profits are expected to be 109.5 billion yuan for FY2026, 167.2 billion yuan for FY2027, and 195.4 billion yuan for FY2028 [11].

丨证券研究报告丨 固收资产配置丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 转债波动率压缩，静待方向突破 ——可转债周报 20251122 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 当周转债表现偏弱，市价中位数震荡下行但仍处相对高位，整体溢价率有所拉伸，隐含波动率 小幅走强。结构上，大盘品种相对更具韧性，银行、钢铁及家电等防御方向表现较稳健，成交 仍集中于电力设备、基础化工、钢铁和有色金属板块。市场波动率整体回落或与投资者结构更 趋稳定及 ETF 波段配置有关，波动率压缩或为后市趋势性行情积蓄力量。一级市场推进平稳， 条款事件频发，对估值与交易节奏的短期扰动仍需关注。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 熊锋 朱承志 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120004 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BWI629 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 转债波动率压缩，静待方向突破 2] ——可转债周报 20251122 [Table_Summary2] 当周核心观点 当周转债表现偏弱，市价中位 ...

行情的级别与走向 长江证券研究所金融工程研究小组 research.95579.com 2 2025-11-26 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 分析师 覃川桃 SAC执业证书编号：S0490513030001 SFC执业证书编号：BUT353 分析师及联系人 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • %% %% %% %% 算法说明 区间最大涨幅：该时间段内从最低点到最高点曾经涨过的最大幅度 第一轮牛市：2005年6月6日至2007年10月16日 数据及算法说明 数据说明 若无特别说明，本文所用数据时间段均为2005至2025年11月14日 %% research.95579.com 3 第二轮牛市：2012年12月4日至2015年6月3日 第三轮牛市：2018年10月19日至2021年7月21日 本轮牛市：2024年2月5日至2025年11月14日 剔除检测服务行业 以一轮周线级别的行情的起点和终点定义牛熊市 全面牛市 vs 结构性牛市：不在不均，而在寡 通常认为前两轮为全面牛市，第三轮为结构性牛市 表1：四轮牛市中长江一级行业区间最大涨幅 | 名称 | 第一轮区间最大涨幅 | ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that A-shares are expected to gradually emerge from a structural "slow bull" market, with potential liquidity support from resident deposits and institutional funds in the medium to long term [3][18] - By 2030, the reallocation of resident assets is projected to bring in approximately CNY 5.4 to 12.0 trillion into the market, with contributions from deposit "migration" estimated at CNY 3.5 to 6.2 trillion and asset reallocation contributing CNY 1.9 to 5.7 trillion [3][7] - Insurance funds are expected to cumulatively increase their allocation to stocks and funds by about CNY 4.5 to 6.5 trillion over the next nine quarters [3][8] Group 2 - The potential "migration" space for resident deposits in China by 2030 is estimated to be between CNY 15.1 trillion and 24.0 trillion, based on different GDP growth scenarios and historical deposit decline rates [6][30] - The report outlines two scenarios for deposit migration: a rapid transfer scenario (2013Q1-2015Q2) leading to an upper limit of CNY 23.8 to 24.0 trillion, and a moderate transfer scenario (2020Q2-2021Q4) resulting in a lower limit of CNY 15.1 to 15.2 trillion [6][31] - The potential incremental funds from resident asset reallocation to the A-share market could range from CNY 3.5 to 6.2 trillion under different scenarios of deposit migration [7][34] Group 3 - The report estimates that by 2026, the potential incremental funds for the A-share market could be around CNY 6.0 to 9.6 trillion, with contributions from various channels including the primary market, active funds, private equity, and ETF funds [9][20] - The primary market is projected to contribute approximately CNY 347.2 to 559.4 billion, while private equity funds could contribute CNY 1.25 to 2.32 trillion, and ETF funds could add CNY 2.61 to 3.95 trillion [9][20] - The current margin balance as a percentage of the circulating market value remains healthy, indicating further potential for leverage funds to be released [9][35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report focuses on the practical applications of bond indices in investment, systematically exploring their three core functions: serving as a tool for measuring asset performance, acting as a benchmark and tracking target for fund performance, and facilitating the construction of investment portfolios. It also introduces the Campisi and Brinson performance attribution models to analyze the logic of portfolio return decomposition and practical application steps [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Index Application: Analytical Tools in Investment Decision - Making Index Application One: Measuring Asset Performance - The interval price change of an index provides a reference for comparing the returns of different indices. By comparing the performance of wealth and net - price indices, bond returns can be split into coupon income and capital gains. Coupon income is relatively stable, with a slow downward trend in recent years, while capital gains are more volatile and significantly impact overall bond asset returns [17]. - Different - duration indices show distinct performance in various market conditions. Long - duration indices perform well in bull markets, and short - duration indices are more defensive in bear markets. Across different asset classes, there is a rotation relationship between bond indices and stocks, commodities, etc., which provides important references for asset allocation [7][24]. - Bond indices can be used as benchmarks for measuring the performance of fund portfolios. Different types of funds have different performance characteristics. Bond funds generally show better risk - dispersion and drawdown control capabilities compared to direct bond investments [27][34]. - Customized indices can be constructed to observe their risk and return performance [37]. Index Application Two: Performance Benchmark and Tracking Target - For actively managed funds, bond indices are performance benchmarks, and fund managers use strategies such as credit downgrading and duration management to outperform the benchmark. For passive index funds, bond indices are tracking targets, with requirements for daily average tracking deviation not exceeding 0.2% and annual tracking error not exceeding 2%. In practice, most index bond funds do not reach these upper limits [8][42]. - Fund performance comparison benchmarks can be divided into four types: index - based, interest - rate - based, numerical, and hybrid. The choice of performance benchmark affects the objective evaluation of fund managers' investment capabilities. Using wealth or total return indices as benchmarks can more comprehensively reflect the actual returns of investors [49][50]. - Index bond funds usually use full replication or sampling replication methods to construct portfolios. Sampling replication is more commonly used, and there are different specific methods. Tracking errors are mainly caused by subjective and objective factors [51][54]. - Index - enhanced bond funds are relatively scarce. They seek excess returns by adjusting the proportion of non - index component bonds and investing in other assets such as stocks [55]. Index Application Three: Flexible Construction of Investment Portfolios - Based on interest - rate forecasts, a duration - timing strategy can optimize portfolio performance. When yields are falling, the portfolio shifts to the ChinaBond 7 - 10 - year Treasury Bond Index to lengthen the duration; when yields are rising, it switches to the ChinaBond 1 - 3 - year Treasury Bond Index to shorten the duration [9]. - Incorporating bond indices into the stock - bond equilibrium framework can capture rebalancing signals through relative price changes between assets. A multi - asset timing strategy can continuously generate excess returns by switching between bond holdings and cash positions [9]. Performance Analysis Campisi Attribution Model - The Campisi model decomposes bond returns into holding income, price income, and bond residual income. Holding income includes coupon income and discount/premium convergence income; price income can be further split into Treasury curve riding income, Treasury curve movement income, and spread change income [70][71]. - Through the analysis of a simulated portfolio A, it is found that the portfolio failed to outperform the benchmark mainly due to insufficient exposure to interest - rate risks, resulting in lower price income [78][82]. Brinson Attribution Model - The Brinson model can be divided into the BHB model and the BF model, which differ in the calculation of industry allocation income. The model decomposes excess returns into industry allocation, individual security selection, and cross - income [83][84]. - Through the analysis of a simulated portfolio B, it is found that the total excess return of the portfolio in the second quarter of 2025 was 0.2995%. The main source was individual security selection income, followed by cross - income, which offset the small negative impact of industry allocation [90][93].

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨环保 [Table_Title] 双碳跟踪：钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼配额方案正 式印发，化工等行业扩围准备中 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 11 月 17 日，生态环境部印发《2024、2025 年度全国碳排放权交易市场钢铁、水泥、 铝冶炼行业配额总量和分配方案》，《方案》聚焦生产过程直接碳排放，自 2025 年起实施碳排 放强度控制思路，核心管控单位产品碳排放。后续碳市场扩围将持续进行，配额分配机制预计 逐步收紧，利于绿证、CCER 需求扩张，看好绿证需求上行带来垃圾焚烧企业现金流改善；看 好绿色燃料替代逻辑。 分析师及联系人 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% [Table_Author] SAC：S0490517090001 SAC：S0490520070003 SAC：S0490524080004 SAC：S0490525070006 SFC：BUV415 徐科 贾少波 李博文 盛意 %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 双碳跟踪：钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼配额方案正式印 2] 发，化工等行业扩围准备中 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.402 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 36.8%. The gross profit reached 1.621 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 36.8% [2][4]. - The company's R&D expenses amounted to 1.468 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.4% increase year-on-year, while the R&D expense ratio decreased by 8.9 percentage points to 33.8% [2][4]. - The enterprise-level Agent expansion has led to significant growth in the company's "Prophet AI" platform, which generated 3.692 billion yuan in revenue, a 70.1% increase year-on-year, accounting for 83.9% of total revenue [2][4]. Summary by Sections Business Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a quarterly revenue of 1.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.4%. The demand for AI applications that deliver tangible business value has surged among enterprise clients, leading to the acquisition of new business opportunities across key industries such as energy, manufacturing, finance, and retail [8]. - The number of benchmark users increased to 103, with an average revenue contribution of 25.49 million yuan per user, marking a 71.4% year-on-year growth [8]. Product Development - The "Prophet AI" platform's revenue share continues to rise, with a reported 36.92 billion yuan in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, up 70.1% year-on-year. The revenue from SHIFT intelligent solutions decreased by 12.5% to 6.02 billion yuan due to increased standardization in existing scene deliveries [8]. - The company has enhanced its core products and expanded downstream applications, launching ModelHub XC and the AI engine system EngineX, which are compatible with various domestic chips [8]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a leader in AI, benefiting from the ongoing penetration of AI across various industries. The potential for digital transformation in Chinese enterprises is significant, with traditional sectors like finance and automotive leading the way, while energy and manufacturing present substantial market opportunities [8]. - The company has maintained its position as the market leader in China's machine learning platform sector for seven consecutive years, with projected revenues of 6.937 billion, 9.062 billion, and 11.797 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 30% [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 14.56 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.58 billion yuan, up 75.5% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.53 billion yuan, reflecting an 81.5% increase [2][4] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.80 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 5.6%, with a net profit of 500 million yuan, marking a 62.5% increase year-on-year, and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 490 million yuan, up 78.8% [2][4] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, motorcycle sales contributed significantly, with revenue from motorcycle sales reaching 3.44 billion yuan, accounting for 71.6% of total revenue. The "Wujie" brand generated 1.06 billion yuan in revenue, with export sales of 53,000 units, making up 50.0% of total revenue [11] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 18.8%, with a net margin of 10.5%, indicating improvements in profitability driven by an optimized product matrix and increased overseas sales [11] - The company has established 1,292 overseas sales outlets, with a focus on expanding into European, Central and South American, and Southeast Asian markets, contributing to a 24.9% year-on-year increase in sales revenue for the "Wujie" series [11] Future Earnings Projections - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 1.917 billion yuan, 2.386 billion yuan, and 2.652 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 13.97, 11.22, and 10.10 [11]