Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Insights - The central economic work conference's statements regarding real estate provide important clues for understanding next year's industry policies. The policy goals continue to focus on risk prevention and market stabilization, with the potential for policy windows to open as thresholds approach. Inventory reduction may involve traditional demand support measures and tools like old renovation or storage. Supply optimization aims to enhance the quality of new residential buildings. The reform of the housing provident fund system may involve higher-level considerations beyond basic aspects like withdrawal, limits, and interest rates [2][8] - The policy goal of stabilizing the market has significantly boosted market expectations, but since April, marginal downward pressure has increased. The probability of easing industrial policies is gradually rising, and the pace of implementation is merely a timing issue. The rapid decline in industry volume and price may have passed, with structural highlights in core areas and quality properties. The current stock prices of quality real estate companies are not far from their bottom, providing room for rebound as market valuations rise. Emphasis should be placed on quality real estate firms with low inventory, good locations, and product strength, as well as stable cash flow from leading brokerage firms, commercial real estate, and state-owned property management companies [4][8] Market Performance - This week, the Yangtze River Real Estate Index decreased by 2.55%, with an excess return of -2.47% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 29th out of 32 industries. Year-to-date, the real estate index has increased by 3.87%, with an excess return of -12.55% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 27th out of 32 [5][14] - The performance of the real estate sector was poor this week, primarily driven by declines in development-related stocks, while property management and rental stocks showed mixed results [5] Policy Developments - The central economic work conference emphasized city-specific policies to control increments, reduce inventory, optimize supply, and deepen the housing provident fund system reform. It aims to stabilize the real estate market and encourage the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [6][16] - Local policies include Shenzhen's optimization of housing provident fund withdrawal regulations, allowing full withdrawals for families with one property and 60% for those with two. Shandong has introduced a housing "old-for-new" program, including three models: selling old for new, exchanging old for new, and demolishing old for new [6][16] Sales Data - This week, the sample cities' new housing transaction area saw a four-week rolling year-on-year decline of 45.6%, while second-hand housing transactions dropped by 28.6%. Year-to-date, new housing transaction area has decreased by 15.8%, while second-hand housing has increased by 4.2% [7][17] - As of December 12, the new housing transaction area in 37 cities showed a month-on-month decline of 41.7%, while second-hand housing transactions decreased by 36.3% [7][17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [9]. Core Viewpoints - Since late November, thermal coal prices have significantly declined due to abnormal weather, accelerated production resumption, and concerns over potential electricity price reductions in 2026. Despite the recent rapid price drop, the report anticipates an improvement in coal demand in 2026, with limited supply capacity utilization, suggesting a potential increase in the price baseline [2][7]. - The report emphasizes that while coal prices are currently under pressure due to weak demand, factors such as cold weather and snowfall could stabilize and potentially increase prices in the future [6][31]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal index (Yangtze) fell by 3.71%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.63 percentage points, ranking last among all industries [30]. - As of December 12, the market price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao was 745 RMB/ton, down 40 RMB/ton week-on-week [6][58]. Supply and Demand Outlook - The report outlines that the recent decline in coal prices is attributed to several factors: warmer weather leading to lower electricity consumption, increased coal supply from resumed production, and concerns regarding electricity price negotiations for 2026 [7]. - The demand outlook for 2026 is optimistic, with expectations of stable or slightly positive growth in thermal power generation, despite potential long-term impacts from energy storage technologies [7][8]. - On the supply side, the report notes that while there may be new production capacity in 2026, overall supply growth is expected to remain limited due to ongoing regulatory controls on excessive production [7][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with a balanced risk-reward profile, recommending stocks such as Yanzhou Coal Mining Company and China Shenhua Energy for their strong fundamentals and dividend potential [7][8]. - It also highlights the potential for higher returns from currently undervalued stocks if demand improves and coal prices rise unexpectedly, suggesting companies like Huayang Co. and Jinkong Coal Industry as potential targets [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-bank financial sector [7]. Core Insights - The non-bank financial sector has shown strong overall performance this week, with brokerage firms experiencing an increase in market activity, maintaining historical highs. It is expected that the sector will continue to see high growth trends in earnings through 2025, suggesting a focus on the sector's future allocation value [2][4]. - In the insurance sector, the third-quarter reports have confirmed the logic of deposit migration, increased equity allocation, and improved new policy costs. The long-term return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve, leading to a potential acceleration in valuation recovery. The overall cost-effectiveness of allocations is gradually increasing, indicating a revaluation of the sector is underway [2][4]. - Recommendations include focusing on companies with stable earnings growth and dividend rates, such as Jiangsu Jinzu, China Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance, which have clear advantages in business models and market positions. Additionally, companies like Xinhua Insurance, China Life, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, CITIC Securities, Dongfang Wealth, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings are also recommended based on their performance elasticity and valuation levels [4]. Market Performance - The non-bank financial index increased by 0.8% this week, with an excess return of 0.9% relative to the CSI 300, ranking high in the industry [5]. - Year-to-date, the non-bank financial index has risen by 6.7%, but with an excess return of -9.7% compared to the CSI 300, ranking lower in the industry [5]. - The average daily trading volume in the two markets reached 19,530.44 billion yuan, a week-on-week increase of 15.14%, with a daily turnover rate of 2.03%, up by 26.88 basis points [5]. Key Industry News & Company Announcements - China Life's cumulative total premium income has exceeded 700 billion yuan [6]. - Guosen Securities plans to distribute cash dividends totaling approximately 1.024 billion yuan, accounting for 11.21% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters [6]. - Industrial Securities announced a mid-term profit distribution plan, with a total cash dividend of 432 million yuan based on a total share capital of 8.636 billion shares [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [8] Core Insights - The U.S. announced the lifting of sanctions on Belarusian potash fertilizers, aiming for normalization of relations with Minsk, which may have limited direct impact on global potash supply-demand balance [2][6] - Potash demand remains strong while supply growth is limited, indicating a favorable outlook for the industry [2][12] - Key companies to watch in the potash sector include Yara International, Salt Lake Potash, Oriental Tower, and Zangge Mining [2] Summary by Sections Event Description - On December 13, 2025, U.S. Special Envoy John Coale met with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, announcing the lifting of sanctions on potash fertilizers [6] Market Dynamics - The price of cyclical products is primarily determined by supply and demand rather than costs. The lifting of sanctions by the U.S. is not expected to significantly alter the global potash supply-demand balance but may reduce Belarusian potash costs [12] - Belarus is the third-largest potash producer globally, with a market share of approximately 16%. Sanctions in 2022 led to a significant reduction in supply and a surge in global potash prices [12] Supply Recovery - Belarusian potash production, which fell to 5.408 million tons in 2022 due to sanctions, has been recovering, reaching 11.559 million tons in 2024, close to its historical peak of 13 million tons in 2021 [12] - The lifting of U.S. sanctions is expected to have a limited overall impact, as Belarusian potash costs remain high due to ongoing EU and Lithuanian sanctions [12] Demand Outlook - The demand for potash is expected to remain robust, driven by high prices of phosphate and nitrogen fertilizers, with potash prices being competitive [12] - In the first half of 2025, potash exports from Canada, Russia, and Belarus increased by 26%, 5%, and 18% respectively, indicating strong demand [12] Capital Expenditure and Supply Constraints - The potash industry has seen limited capital expenditure due to prolonged periods of low prices, leading to constrained future supply growth [12] - The cyclical nature of the industry means that prices are more influenced by supply-demand dynamics than by production costs [12]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨食品、饮料与烟草 [Table_Title] 解码威士忌系列报告二：透过进口数据，拆解中 国威士忌发展趋势 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 纵观近十年，中国进口威士忌实现了量价齐升，苏威、日威逐步培养起国内消费者对威士忌产 品的认知。2025 年，中国威士忌进口量首次超过白兰地进口量，问鼎进口烈酒新王。本文通过 分析烈酒进口数据，探索进口威士忌量、价、结构的变化，梳理威士忌发展脉络。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] research.95579.com 1 食品、饮料与烟草 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 解码威士忌系列报告二：透过进口数据，拆解中 2] 国威士忌发展趋势 董思远 冯萱 SAC：S0490517070016 SAC：S0490524060001 SFC：BQK487 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% [Table_Summary2] 中国进口威士忌十年间实现量价齐升 纵观近十年，中国进口威士忌实现了量价齐升。2024 年中国威士忌进口金额达到 451.43 百万 美元，对比 2015 年增长 2 ...

[Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨深度报告丨振华股份（603067.SH） [Table_Title] 铬盐全球龙头，规模效应逐步提升 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司作为全球铬盐全产业链一体化龙头企业，采取市场份额优先、低成本扩张的发展策略，规 模优势显著，同时清洁化生产技术使其跨越壁垒，一方面不断提高开工率实现铬盐产销增长， 另一方面公司产能即将再次扩张，抬高未来成长上限。铬盐需求增长驱动力从低速增长的革鞣、 电镀、颜料等行业逐渐转向金属铬、高端电镀添加剂等高增长行业，同时铬盐供给扩张受限， 预计供给趋向紧张，行业开启景气周期，公司有望充分受益。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马太 王呈 SAC：S0490516100002 SAC：S0490525040004 SFC：BUT911 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 34 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_scodeMsg2] 振华股份（603067.SH） cjzqdt11111 ...

Group 1: Economic Policy Directions - The meeting proposed five new "musts," which are an iteration of last year's five "musts," reflecting a deeper understanding of economic work[16] - Fiscal policy continues to be described as "more proactive," focusing on improving fiscal revenue, maintaining debt intensity, and optimizing expenditure structure[18] - Monetary policy remains "appropriately loose," with an emphasis on policy effectiveness, balancing between broad money supply and credit[22] Group 2: Key Economic Tasks - Expanding domestic demand remains the top priority, with expectations for a "rural and urban resident income increase plan" and efforts to stabilize investment[24] - Risk prevention in key areas, particularly in real estate, focuses on stabilizing housing prices and improving supply-demand dynamics, with "deepening housing fund system reform" as a major highlight for next year[28]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the investment themes for 2026 in the environmental sector, focusing on overseas expansion, carbon reduction, and pollution control as key strategies under the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3][6] - The environmental industry is experiencing a transition as domestic infrastructure peaks, with a projected 4.9% year-on-year growth in sector performance for the first three quarters of 2025 [6][28] Policy Guidance - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has not yet met carbon reduction targets, indicating a need for continued efforts in this area, while other environmental goals have been largely achieved [22][24] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to synergize carbon peak and neutrality goals with pollution reduction and green growth initiatives [6][24] Overseas Expansion - The report identifies significant market opportunities in Southeast Asia and Central Asia for waste incineration, with a potential market size in the hundreds of billions [7] - Indonesia's upcoming waste incineration projects are highlighted, with expectations for rapid development starting in Q1 2026, supported by sovereign fund investments [7] - Key companies positioned for overseas expansion include Weiming Environmental, China Everbright, and others [7] Carbon Reduction - The carbon market is evolving, with ongoing improvements in the carbon emission control system and an expected rise in carbon prices [8] - Non-electric green energy sectors, such as renewable energy heating and biofuels, are anticipated to benefit from policy support and growing domestic demand [8] - Companies like Zhuoyue New Energy are noted for their potential in the biofuel sector, particularly in the context of EU anti-dumping influences subsiding [8] Pollution Control - The water and air sectors are expected to see continued investment in pollution control, with companies like Xingrong Environment and Aofu Technology highlighted for their growth potential [9] - The report notes that the implementation of the National VI emissions standards will create opportunities in the automotive emissions control market [9] Diverse Investment Opportunities - The report outlines various investment opportunities arising from new production capabilities, cyclical trends, and debt management strategies within the environmental sector [10] - Companies involved in smart technologies and battery materials are identified as potential beneficiaries of these trends [10]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the securities industry experienced high growth in 2025, with a shift from self-operated brokerage as the main contributor to a more diversified support structure across various business lines [3][6] - Looking ahead to 2026, the industry is expected to enter a phase of high-quality development, with sustained slow bull market conditions and opportunities for investment in improved segments [3][8] Review of 2025 - In the first three quarters of 2025, the securities firms underperformed the market, with a cumulative increase of 1.2% compared to a 13.8 percentage point underperformance against the CSI 300 index [6][18] - The total operating revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders for listed securities firms reached CNY 4,196.08 billion and CNY 1,684.50 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 16.9% and 62.8% [6][26] - The average return on equity (ROE) for the industry was 5.6%, up by 2.02 percentage points year-on-year [6][30] Outlook for 2026 - The self-operated and brokerage businesses are likely to continue supporting performance, although brokerage income may be less elastic due to declining commission rates [8][9] - Investment banking and asset management businesses are showing signs of cyclical recovery, with the investment banking sector adapting to regulatory changes and the asset management sector experiencing its first year-on-year growth since 2024 [8][9] - International business contributions are increasing, with leading firms enhancing their overseas operations and capital support [8][9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on individual stocks in improved segments, particularly: 1. High-quality leaders in investment banking, such as China International Capital Corporation (CICC) [9] 2. Leaders in asset management, like Orient Securities [9] 3. Industry leaders with strong international business layouts, including CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, and China Galaxy Securities [9]

[Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨深度报告丨中工国际（002051.SZ） [Table_Title] 国际工程领跑者，科工贸一体化打造第二曲线 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 张弛 张智杰 袁志芃 SAC：S0490520080022 SAC：S0490522060005 SAC：S0490525070008 SFC：BUT917 龚子逸 SAC：S0490525080003 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 中工国际深耕"一带一路"，聚焦设计咨询与工程承包、关键核心装备研发与制造业务、工程投 资与运营三大业务板块，通过整合设计咨询与高端装备制造双重优势，已构建起覆盖 70 余国 的全球化业务网络，实现从传统工程承包商向科工贸一体化跨国企业的转型升级。 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 23 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_scodeMsg2] 中工国际（002051.SZ） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 国际工程领 ...