Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the insurance sector [11]. Core Insights - In the short term, investment yield is the dominant factor for valuation, while asset allocation ratio is the decisive factor for investment yield. In the medium to long term, the spread between the asset and liability sides of insurance is expected to improve due to policy and market changes, with sufficient long-term space in the industry leading to continuous improvement in ROE [3][9]. - Recommended stocks include China Life, New China Life, Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance as quality targets [3][9]. Summary by Sections 2025 Review - The insurance sector's performance was generally flat compared to the market, with the CSI 300 index rising by 15% and the Yangtze Insurance Index increasing by 14.5%, underperforming the market by 0.6 percentage points. Individual stocks like Ping An, New China Life, and China Pacific outperformed the market [6][23]. - The liability side is undergoing a transformation towards dividends, with new policy growth slightly slowing but value rates improving, driving new business value growth. The asset side performed well due to strong equity market performance, contributing to good total investment returns [6][23]. Investment Yield Analysis - The primary determinant of insurance companies' investment yield is asset allocation. As of Q3 2025, listed insurance companies had total investment assets exceeding 20 trillion yuan, indicating that investment yield is mainly influenced by asset allocation rather than significant and sustained alpha generation [6][39]. - Even in an extremely low-interest-rate environment, yields can remain above 2%, demonstrating that the risk of spread loss for listed insurance companies is minimal [6][39]. Pricing of the Insurance Sector - Over the past decade, expected investment yield has been the anchor for insurance industry valuation. The short-term valuation is primarily influenced by yield expectations, as the liability cost rate fluctuates less in the short term [7][71]. - The report emphasizes that the asset side, particularly equity assets, has a stronger influence on investment yield than the liability side, which has limited impact due to its long-term nature [7][71]. Future Demand and Market Dynamics - The report anticipates that insurance demand will remain high in 2026, driven by a significant amount of fixed deposits and wealth management products maturing. The comparative advantage of insurance products in terms of yield is expected to attract funds from fixed deposits without requiring an increase in risk appetite [8][84]. - The industry landscape is expected to continue improving, with leading listed insurance companies benefiting more from this trend [8][84].

Group 1: Dividend Index Changes - The recent rebalancing of the dividend indices, including the CSI Dividend and Low Volatility Dividend indices, indicates a shift towards "quality dividend" assets, reflecting a trend from traditional dividend assets[2] - The number of stocks added to the CSI Low Volatility Dividend index was 18, while the CSI Dividend index saw 20 stocks added, showing a higher turnover rate in the Low Volatility Dividend index[20] - The weight of quality dividend assets has marginally increased in the Low Volatility Dividend index, suggesting a transition towards quality-focused investments[6] Group 2: Sector and Dividend Yield Changes - New sectors such as healthcare, non-metal materials, and public utilities have been added to the indices, indicating a diversification of included industries[6] - The weight of stocks with dividend yields between 5% and 8% has significantly increased in the CSI Dividend index after adjustments[7] - The CSI Low Volatility Dividend index has also seen a notable increase in the proportion of stocks with dividend yields above 5%[30] Group 3: Market Conditions and Investment Strategy - The report suggests that in a declining interest rate environment, bond-like and stable dividends are more beneficial, while quality and cyclical dividends perform better in a rising interest rate and liquidity phase[8] - The analysis indicates that the quality dividend assets are better suited for a stable or rising interest rate environment, enhancing their investment appeal[36]

Group 1: Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" achievements are the foundation for the "15th Five-Year Plan," which aims to connect to the 2035 vision, focusing on technological innovation as the core driver for activating the domestic market and ensuring strategic security for high-quality development [3] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes self-reliance in technology, enhancing original innovation, and laying out future industries to create new engines for development [6][35] - The plan aims to establish a unified national market and boost consumption to activate internal dynamics, providing a solid foundation for economic growth [7] Group 2: Technological Innovation - High-tech manufacturing shows resilience, with the share of the "three new economies" (new industries, new business formats, new models) in GDP steadily increasing, making technology a core engine for economic growth [15] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" suggests accelerating the development of strategic emerging industries such as new energy, new materials, aerospace, and low-altitude economy [6][35] - The transition from traditional to new energy vehicles indicates that the latter has moved past its explosive growth phase, while industries like robotics are on the verge of significant penetration [24][29] Group 3: Domestic Circulation - A strong domestic market is crucial for China's modernization, with the "15th Five-Year Plan" focusing on enhancing the internal dynamics and reliability of domestic circulation [7][55] - The plan proposes a unified national market as a key strategy to strengthen the domestic market, addressing competition issues and restoring industry profits to normal levels [55] - The focus on quality upgrades in key industries aims to consolidate and enhance the competitiveness of sectors like mining, metallurgy, and textiles in the global division of labor [55] Group 4: Strategic Security - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes building security barriers in three areas: industrial security, national defense security, and trade security, enhancing the national security system and capabilities [8] - Key areas of focus include original innovation, core technology breakthroughs, and improving the self-control level of industrial chains [8] - The plan also highlights the importance of expanding institutional openness and maintaining a multilateral trade system to address uncertainties in the global trade environment [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the medical device industry [3]. Core Insights - The medical device industry is expected to return to positive growth in 2025 after two consecutive years of decline in 2023 and 2024, driven by increased demand for hospital equipment due to equipment renewal policies [10]. - Monthly procurement data shows a continuous recovery trend, with November 2025 procurement amounting to 208.76 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 26.93% [18]. - The domestic production rate of medical devices has increased from 19% in 2019 to 48% in November 2025, indicating a significant shift towards local manufacturing [21]. Summary by Sections Equipment Procurement - The medical device procurement is showing a sustained recovery, with a projected annual procurement scale for 2025 estimated between 1,884 billion yuan and 2,422 billion yuan based on the first half's performance [14]. - The procurement amount for November 2025 was 208.76 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.25% but a month-on-month increase of 26.93% [18]. Market Segmentation - The procurement scale for ultrasound devices in November 2025 reached 22.40 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 17.60% and a month-on-month growth of 41.67% [27]. - CT device procurement in November 2025 was 25.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 27.58% and a month-on-month increase of 22.82% [28]. - MRI procurement in November 2025 was 23.94 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.68% and a month-on-month growth of 29.94% [31]. - Digestive endoscope procurement in November 2025 was 7.30 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.26% and a month-on-month increase of 41% [36]. - Surgical robot procurement in November 2025 was 5.60 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 8.33% but a month-on-month decrease of 11.53% [37]. Company Performance - Mindray Medical's procurement in November 2025 was 13.18 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 12.16% and a month-on-month increase of 38.34% [44]. - United Imaging's procurement in November 2025 reached 14.33 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.40% and a month-on-month growth of 31.15% [46]. - KAILI Medical's procurement in November 2025 was 2.47 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 62.15% and a month-on-month increase of 17.95% [50]. - Aohua Endoscopy's procurement in November 2025 was 1.09 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 59.95% and a month-on-month growth of 62.14% [54].

[Table_scodeMsg1] 港股研究丨公司点评丨小鹏汽车-W（09868.HK） [Table_Title] 小鹏汽车获 L3 级自动驾驶测试牌照，开启 L3 测试新阶段 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 小鹏汽车在广州市获 L3 级自动驾驶道路测试牌照，并启动常态化 L3 道路测试，主要适用范围 为广州市智能网联测试高快速路上进行有条件自动驾驶测试。小鹏汽车 AI 应用历史积淀深厚， 当前全面转向 AI 战略，定位面向全球的 AI 汽车公司，并明确未来十年将转型为 AI 汽车智能科 技企业，AI 业务全面起势。 分析师及联系人 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 张扬 SAC：S0490517060001 SAC：S0490524030004 SFC：BUW101 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 小鹏汽车-W（09868.HK） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 小鹏汽车获2]L3 级自动驾驶测试牌照，开启 L3 测试新阶段 [Table_Summary2] ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central government has shifted from "overall resolution and risk prevention" to more proactive "active debt resolution", strictly controlling the source of risks and emphasizing the optimization of debt restructuring and replacement methods. It has also clearly distinguished "operating debts of financing platforms" and included the risk of such debts in the key resolution scope [7][19]. - The resolution of local government implicit debts has advanced steadily, with the risk being continuously mitigated. However, the market has begun to focus on the operating debt risks of financing platforms, especially the disposal methods for such debts after 2028 [2][7]. - There are three possible paths for resolving the operating debts of financing platforms in the future: fiscal replacement after re - identification, financial debt resolution, and market - based disposal [7][31]. - The large - scale fiscal management reform in Hubei Province provides an important reference for local debt resolution and the market - oriented transformation of urban investment platforms [7][36]. - The disposal methods for the operating debt risks of financing platforms after 2028 are uncertain. If fiscal replacement is used again, a new round of inventory and statistics of local government off - balance - sheet debts may start from 2026 - 2027. If market - based resolution is adopted, attention should be paid to the creditworthiness of state - owned enterprises, especially the valuation risks of urban investment entities in relatively weak regions and with weak credit qualifications [7][36]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Implicit Debts Significantly Resolved, but Operating Debts of Financing Platforms Grow Significantly - The resolution of local government implicit debts has advanced steadily. Since 2024, a total of 10 trillion yuan of debt replacement resources have been arranged, and the implicit debt that local governments need to digest before 2028 has decreased from 14.3 trillion yuan to 2.3 trillion yuan [12]. - The scale and proportion of debt - resolution funds have increased significantly. Policy support has effectively matched the needs of local debt resolution, and most implicit debts are expected to be resolved by 2028 [14]. - Since 2018, the interest - bearing debts of urban investment entities have continued to expand. As of November 2025, they have reached about 78.8 trillion yuan, and it is estimated that they will reach nearly 83.5 trillion yuan by 2028. The stock of urban investment bonds has remained stable but decreased slightly, while the bonds of "pan - urban investment" entities have increased [19]. 2. New Ideas for Debt Resolution in the Central Economic Work Conference - By comparing the statements of the Central Economic Work Conferences from 2023 to 2025 on local government debt risks, it can be seen that the policy goals have evolved from "prevention and resolution" to "resolution", from "overall resolution" to "active and orderly resolution", and from "holding the bottom line" to "urging active debt resolution", reflecting a more proactive and targeted policy orientation [27][30]. 3. After 2028, for the Operating Debts of Financing Platforms: Restructuring or Replacement? - The central government's debt - resolution measures are becoming more market - oriented and professional. There are three possible paths for resolving the operating debts of financing platforms: fiscal replacement after re - identification, financial debt resolution, and market - based disposal [31]. - The large - scale fiscal reform in Hubei Province provides a sample for local debt resolution. By introducing social capital through asset securitization, it effectively alleviates the current debt - repayment pressure of local governments and enhances fiscal sustainability [36].

Group 1: Core Insights - The future narrative for thermal power is expected to shift towards enhanced profitability stability and increased dividends due to rising capacity prices and deeper assessments by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) [2][60] - In the short term, integrated coal power companies are likely to have a comparative advantage as coal prices rise, with a consensus forming around an increase in the coal price baseline for next year [2][6] - Renewable energy companies, despite facing challenges such as supply-demand imbalance and subsidy delays, have shown considerable absolute returns, supported by improving policies for green energy development [6][8] Group 2: Thermal Power Analysis - Historical performance of thermal power shows a certain "counter-cyclical" nature, with earnings often moving inversely to coal prices, which are now market-driven [19][26] - The current policy framework limits the duration of profitability expectations for thermal power, leading to a "high first, low second" characteristic in the market for 2023 and 2024 [6][45] - The expected increase in capacity prices across provinces by 2026 will enhance the fixed cost recovery ability of coal power plants, significantly improving profitability stability [60][64] Group 3: Renewable Energy Insights - The renewable energy sector is currently facing multiple issues, including market price pressure and subsidy delays, but the gradual improvement in policy support is expected to create investment opportunities [6][8] - Companies with low valuations, high wind power ratios, and strong regional price certainty are still worth considering for investment despite the uncertain timing of policy impacts [2][6] Group 4: Hydropower and Nuclear Power - Leading hydropower companies exhibit high earnings certainty and dividend ratios, making them attractive for long-term investment [7] - Nuclear power is anticipated to see significant capacity growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with stable long-term price expectations despite some market price fluctuations [8][60] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include quality thermal power operators such as Huaneng International, Datang Power, and China Power, as well as leading hydropower firms like Yangtze Power and Guotou Power [9] - In the renewable sector, companies like Longyuan Power and China Nuclear Power are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [9]

Group 1 - The report forecasts that the Brent crude oil price will fluctuate around $60-65 per barrel in 2026, with potential short-term increases due to geopolitical factors [3][6][7] - The midstream and downstream sectors are expected to improve, driven by a global economic resonance from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and supply-side contractions due to anti-involution policies [3][7] - Investment opportunities are highlighted in cyclical growth stocks, coal chemical equipment investments, and high-dividend sectors [3][8] Group 2 - In 2025, oil prices are projected to oscillate between $60-70 per barrel, with a slight recovery in midstream and downstream sectors [6][7] - The report outlines a three-phase oil price trend in 2025, characterized by initial declines, a subsequent recovery, and a final drop influenced by geopolitical tensions and OPEC's production decisions [6][27] - Natural gas prices are expected to decrease due to increased LNG supply, with the JKM and TTF gas prices showing a downward trend compared to the previous year [6][30] Group 3 - The chemical industry is experiencing a weak recovery, with structural improvements in end-consumer demand, particularly in the textile sector, although domestic consumption remains under pressure [7][56] - The report anticipates an upward trend in industry prosperity as global interest rate cuts stimulate economic activity [7][8] - Key investment themes include cyclical opportunities, growth stocks, and companies benefiting from the coal chemical investment cycle [8][9] Group 4 - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality growth stocks, particularly in the coal chemical sector and energy companies with stable cash flows and high dividend yields [8][9] - Specific companies highlighted for potential investment include Satellite Chemical, Baofeng Energy, and high-dividend firms like CNOOC, PetroChina, and Sinopec [8][9] - The report also notes the expected benefits for companies involved in high-end material imports and coal chemical equipment investments as the domestic coal chemical investment cycle unfolds [8][9]

Core Insights - The chemical industry is currently at the bottom of its cycle, with expectations of gradual recovery driven by global economic growth and demand increase [2][5][20] - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-side dynamics, noting the retreat of foreign investment and the slowdown of domestic capacity expansion, which may lead to a turning point for the industry [2][5][36] - Key recommendations include focusing on cyclical resilient and growth sectors such as industrial silicon, organic silicon, PTA, spandex, caprolactam, soda ash, and chlor-alkali, as well as high-demand products like refrigerants and potassium fertilizers [2][5][6] Demand Side Analysis - The chemical industry is closely tied to global economic performance, with a projected global GDP growth of 3.09% in 2026, driven mainly by developing countries like India [22][25] - China's GDP growth is expected to be 4.16% in 2026, indicating robust domestic demand [22][25] - Emerging sectors such as new energy and AI are expected to drive material consumption, with significant growth in electric vehicle sales and energy storage capacity anticipated [27][29] Supply Side Dynamics - The report highlights the challenges faced by foreign chemical giants due to rising energy costs and increased competition, leading to significant profit declines [36][41] - Major foreign companies are closing high-cost production facilities in Europe, which may create opportunities for domestic players [36][41][47] - Domestic chemical companies are experiencing pressure on investment returns, leading to a slowdown in capital expenditure growth and a pause in new capacity plans [49] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a focus on cyclical resilient products and growth sectors, with specific attention to high-quality companies that possess competitive advantages [6][36] - The potential for price increases or stable prices with volume growth in bottom-tier products is emphasized, particularly in industrial silicon and organic silicon [6][36] - The report also identifies opportunities in the tire and civil explosives sectors, particularly as companies expand internationally [7][36] Emerging Opportunities - New material sectors, including humanoid robots and AI materials, are highlighted as areas of potential growth, driven by domestic policy support and the need for localized supply chains [8][36] - The report notes the increasing importance of domestic production capabilities in high-end materials due to international trade tensions [8][36]

[Table_Author] 赵增辉 熊锋 朱承志 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120004 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BWI629 丨证券研究报告丨 固收资产配置丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 临期低价转债风险或已基本定价 ——可转债周报 20251213 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 当周受外部信用事件扰动，部分低价临期转债显著回调，市场正逐步定价偿债风险。鉴于宏观 稳健与债底坚实，若因担忧过度导致超调或提供布局良机，整体信用风险可控。当周 A 股窄幅 震荡，创业板及中盘风格相对占优，通信、军工等科技制造板块回暖明显，周期类行业相对较 弱，板块拥挤度呈分化特征。可转债市场整体略有走强，大盘与小盘表现优于中盘，估值整体 拉伸，隐含波动率维持高位，行情主要由高价券及科技板块带动。一级市场发行平稳，审核有 序推进，条款博弈仍是焦点，下修分化与强赎频现并存，需警惕情绪扰动对估值结构的影响。 分析师及联系人 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 临期低价转债风险或已基本定价 ...