Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the rail transit equipment sector [2][4]. Core Insights - The recent tender announcement by the National Railway Group for 80 sets of high-speed trains slightly exceeded expectations, reflecting strong demand in the rail transit equipment sector [2]. - The procurement of high-speed trains in 2024 is expected to surpass previous years due to a recovery in passenger traffic, with a year-on-year increase of 49.39% in tendered sets compared to 2023 [3]. - The peak of new rail lines and vehicle deliveries is anticipated in 2025, with a projected increase in new vehicle demand driven by the completion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3]. - The profitability of the National Railway Group has improved significantly, with total revenue reaching 900.7 billion yuan and a net profit of 12.9 billion yuan in the first three quarters of the year [3]. - The rail investment is expected to maintain above 800 billion yuan in 2025, with a focus on vehicle investments that are likely to convert into performance [4]. Summary by Sections Tender Announcement - On November 5, the National Railway Group announced a tender for 80 sets of high-speed trains, including various configurations, which slightly exceeded market expectations [2]. Passenger Traffic and Demand - The railway passenger volume from January to September reached 3.338 billion people, a year-on-year increase of 13.8%, indicating that peak demand is still not fully met [3]. Future Projections - In 2025, the new rail lines are expected to increase by 50%, with a significant demand for new vehicles as the industry approaches the completion of its five-year plan [3]. Financial Performance - The National Railway Group's revenue and profit have shown significant improvement, with a total fixed asset investment of 561.2 billion yuan in the first nine months, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.3% [3]. Key Companies to Watch - Key companies in the rail transit equipment sector include CRRC Corporation, Times Electric, Siwei Control, and China Railway Signal & Communication [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Outperform" to the company, indicating a relative strength compared to the market performance [2][4]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 performance met expectations, with a revenue of 100.19 billion yuan for the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.51 billion yuan, down 25.4% year-on-year [2][3]. - Q3 revenue reached 42.87 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 23.6% and a year-on-year increase of 35.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 was 2.81 billion yuan, showing a slight decrease of 0.3% quarter-on-quarter but a significant increase of 155.2% year-on-year [2][3]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Q3 sales were strong, with total sales of 153,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 45% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 41%. The L6 model contributed significantly, with sales of 75,000 units, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 92%, accounting for 49.2% of total sales [3][4]. Financial Metrics - The gross margin for Q3 was 21.5%, with the automotive business gross margin at 20.9%, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.2 percentage points. The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle was 270,000 yuan, slightly down by 0.9 thousand yuan [3][4]. - R&D expenses for Q3 were 2.59 billion yuan, with a rate of 6.0%, down 3.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating effective cost control [3][4]. Future Outlook - The company expects Q4 delivery volumes to be between 160,000 and 170,000 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.4% to 29.0%. Projected revenue for Q4 is between 43.2 billion and 45.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5% to 10.0% [3][4]. - The company has developed and operated 1,000 supercharging stations, leading the industry in the number of self-built high-speed charging stations, which supports the sales of high-end pure electric products [4][5]. Revenue Projections - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2026 are revised to 145.98 billion, 194.13 billion, and 215.65 billion yuan respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is adjusted to 7.52 billion, 12.60 billion, and 16.43 billion yuan for the same period [4][5].

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a **positive outlook** on the smart car industry, particularly focusing on the AD/ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) sector, with expectations of significant penetration rate changes by 2025 [2][14] Core Views - **Smart Equalization**: BYD and other leading automakers are pushing AD/ADAS into the 100,000 RMB price range, making advanced driving features more accessible [2][14] - **Domestic Automakers' Upgrades**: Companies like Chery, Geely, and Zeekr are accelerating their intelligent driving capabilities, with plans to mass-produce high-level autonomous driving systems by 2025 [3][19] - **Tesla's FSD Progress**: Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) system has surpassed 2 billion miles, with significant advancements in AI training and computational power. Tesla expects to launch its Robotaxi, Cybercab, by 2026 [4][29] - **NVIDIA's Thor Platform**: NVIDIA's upgraded Thor platform, with 1000T+ computing power, is expected to be integrated into vehicles by 2025, with companies like Li Auto, XPeng, and BYD already confirmed as early adopters [5][36] Domestic AD/ADAS Market - **BYD's AD/ADAS Strategy**: BYD's AD team has grown from 100 to 4,000 members, focusing on high-speed NOA (Navigate on Autopilot) and urban NOA for affordable models. BYD plans to offer AD/ADAS features in the 100,000 RMB price range by 2025 [15][16] - **Other Domestic Players**: Chery aims to mass-produce high-level autonomous driving systems across more than a dozen models by 2025, while Geely and Zeekr are also advancing their NOA systems and integrating NVIDIA's Thor chip [19][23] Overseas AD/ADAS Market - **Tesla's FSD Expansion**: Tesla's FSD has achieved over 2 billion miles, with AI training computational power increasing by 75% in Q3 2024. Tesla plans to launch FSD in China and Europe by Q1 2025, pending regulatory approval [4][29] - **Robotaxi Development**: Tesla's Cybercab, a fully autonomous vehicle without a steering wheel or pedals, is expected to enter production in 2026, with a target of producing 2 million units annually, potentially scaling up to 4 million [29][32] Upstream Chip Market - **NVIDIA's Thor Platform**: NVIDIA's Thor platform, with 1000T+ computing power, is set to replace the Orin chip, offering 4x the performance. Companies like Desay SV and Horizon Robotics are developing domain controllers based on Thor [36][38] - **Domestic Chip Alternatives**: Horizon Robotics' Journey 6 series is expected to gain traction, with BYD and Li Auto among the automakers likely to adopt its solutions. Other domestic players like Huawei and Black Sesame are also advancing in the autonomous driving chip market [42][49] Investment Recommendations - **AD Smart Penetration**: Recommended companies include BYD Electronics, Xiaomi Group, and Horizon Robotics, which are expected to benefit from the downward trend in AD/ADAS pricing [6][53] - **Stimulating Smart Upgrades**: Companies like Desay SV, Huace Navigation, and Luxshare Precision are recommended for their role in driving intelligent upgrades among automakers [6][53]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its performance in the market [4][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 2.544 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 16.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 504 million yuan, down 6.0% year-on-year. However, the third quarter showed a slight improvement with a revenue of 883 million yuan, a decrease of only 1.9%, and a net profit of 201 million yuan, which increased by 16.8% [4][5]. - The increase in waste processed has led to an improvement in gross margin, which reached 47% in the third quarter, up 2 percentage points from the previous quarter. The waste processed in the first three quarters was 10.7075 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7% [5][6]. - The company has significantly improved its free cash flow, which rose from 51 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2023 to 763 million yuan in the same period of 2024, reflecting a 60% increase in operating cash flow [5][6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 3.372 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 14.8%. The net profit is expected to be 697 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 10.7% in 2024 [7][9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.50 yuan in 2024, increasing to 0.60 yuan by 2026. The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 13 in 2024 to 11 in 2026 [7][9]. - The company has committed to increasing its dividend payout, with a target of at least 50% by 2026, up from 33% in 2023 [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 7.47 billion in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-over-year decrease of 0.77%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 499 million, down 52.7% year-over-year [5][9]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 2.71 billion, an increase of 8.44% year-over-year and 2.53% quarter-over-quarter, with a net profit of 219 million, down 21.3% year-over-year and 11.4% quarter-over-quarter [5][6]. Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price as of November 5, 2024: 51.18 yuan - Market capitalization: 67,738 million yuan - Price-to-book ratio: 3.1 - Dividend yield: 0.22 [2]. Financial Data - As of September 30, 2024, the company's net asset per share is 16.69 yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 17.43% [3]. - The total share capital is 1,324 million shares [3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts total revenue of 10.30 billion for 2024, with a year-over-year growth rate of 4.1%, and a net profit of 810 million, down 45.2% year-over-year [9]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 1.28 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 57.6% [9]. Research and Development - R&D expenses accounted for over 11% of revenue, with a focus on high-end applications, and the gross margin increased by 2.09 percentage points [6][7]. - R&D investment rose from 710 million in 2021 to 1.15 billion in 2023, with Q3 2024 R&D expenses reaching 315 million [7]. Market Position - The company is increasing its market share in high-end sectors such as automotive, communication, and industrial control, with significant growth in motor drive revenue and stable growth in automotive-grade products [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the brokerage sector, indicating a strong potential for both profitability and valuation improvement in the coming quarters [10]. Core Insights - The brokerage sector's performance in Q3 2024 showed significant improvement, with a year-on-year profit increase of 41% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14%. The overall net profit for the first nine months of 2024 decreased by 3% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe compared to the first half of the year [2][13]. - The investment business was the only segment to show positive year-on-year growth in the first nine months of 2024, contributing 45% to the main revenue [3][9]. - The report highlights a trend of improving profitability and valuation for the brokerage sector, driven by favorable policies and market conditions [10]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance Overview - In the first nine months of 2024, 43 listed brokerages achieved operating revenue of 371.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 103.4 billion yuan, down 6% year-on-year, but the decline rate significantly narrowed compared to the first half of the year [2][13]. - In Q3 2024, the same group of brokerages reported operating revenue of 136.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6%. The net profit for this quarter was 39.5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 41% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14% [2][13]. 2. Business Breakdown - The investment business was the only segment with positive year-on-year growth, while other segments like brokerage and investment banking faced declines. The brokerage income decreased by 14% year-on-year, and investment banking income dropped by 38% [3][6]. - The report indicates that the brokerage sector's financial investment scale increased to 6.4 trillion yuan, with an annualized investment return rate of 3.90%, showing significant improvement compared to the first half of 2024 [9][22]. 3. Investment Analysis Opinion - The report recommends focusing on the brokerage sector, highlighting the potential for improved performance throughout 2024. Key stocks to watch include China Galaxy, Huatai Securities, Citic Securities, and others that may benefit from market reforms and M&A activities [10][18].

行 业 及 产 业 - 证 券 研 究 报 告 石油石化 2024 年 11 月 06 日 24Q3 油价下降叠加需求不及预 期，石化产业链业绩整体下滑 看好 ——石油化工 2024 三季报业绩总结 本期投资提示： ⚫ 2024Q3 原油价格同比、环比下降，成品油价格下调：2024 年 7、8、9 月 Brent 原油 均价分别为 83.9、78.9、72.9 美元/桶，波动区间为 69—87 美元；2024Q3 均价为 78.7 美元/桶，环比下降 7.4%，同比下降 8.4%，收于 71.77 美元/桶。2024Q3 汽油、 柴油价格累计上调 1 次，下调 4 次，累计汽油、柴油价格累计下调 805 元/吨、775 元/ 吨。 ⚫ 2024Q3 原油催化裂化价差、苯乙烯-纯苯-乙烯、PTA-PX 环比扩大，丙烯-丙烷、聚丙 烯-丙烷、PX-石脑油以及环氧丙烷-丙烯环比收窄：2024Q3 原油催化裂化价差为 1074 元/桶，环比扩大 259 美元/桶；新加坡催化裂化价差为 9 美元/桶，炼油价差环比持 平。2024Q3 乙烷乙烯平均价差为 712 美元/吨，环比扩大 26 美元/吨；聚丙烯-丙烷平 均价差 ...

行 业 及 产 业 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 樊夏沛 A0230523080004 fanxp@swsresearch.com 联系人 邵翼 (8621)23297818× shaoyi@swsresearch.com 汽车 行 业 研 究/ 行 业 点 评 2024 年 11 月 06 日10+重点公司三季报更新 看好 ——一周一刻钟，大事快评（W080） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 行业整体情况：1、营收增长，但净利润和净利率兑现存在压力，板块呈现增收不增利 的情况。2、头部企业展现虹吸效应，刨除头部企业后，板块面临竞争压力。 ⚫ 比亚迪：销量超预期，Q3 单车净利润约 9,300 元。预计明年将是比亚迪车型周期的拐 点，车型密度高，预计今年销量可达 400 万辆。 ⚫ 吉利：吉利汽车的业绩报告预计将在 11 月中旬发布，市场对其业绩表现持乐观态度。 极氪品牌的业绩表现良好，特别是在 Q3 极氪 009 车型的销量占比显著提升，毛利率水 平表现优秀。银河 E5 等车型的盈利贡献下，公司整体盈利状况有望得到改善。 ⚫ 经纬恒 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, reflecting an expectation of strong performance relative to the market [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for Q3 2024, with revenue reaching 38.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 67.49%, and net profit of 3.13 billion yuan, up 34.70% year-on-year [6][8]. - The earnings forecast has been revised upwards for 2024-2026, with expected net profits of 12.81 billion yuan, 17.21 billion yuan, and 22.97 billion yuan respectively, indicating robust growth potential [6][8]. - The company is focusing on three core business areas: intelligent manufacturing, optical connectivity, and perception technology, which are all progressing well and contributing to revenue growth [8][9]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 90.02 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.42% [6][8]. - The projected total revenue for 2024 is 124.32 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 21.8% [7]. - The net profit for 2024 is estimated at 12.81 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.2% [7][11]. Business Performance - The company has effectively controlled expenses, with a slight decrease in the comprehensive period expense ratio to 12.21% for the first three quarters of 2024, down 1.51 percentage points year-on-year [8]. - The R&D expense ratio has decreased to 5.96%, indicating improved efficiency in research and development spending [8]. - The company is expanding its market presence in key sectors such as new energy vehicles and AI, which are expected to drive future growth [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yangnong Chemical (600486) [5] Core Views - Yangnong Chemical's Q3 2024 performance met expectations, with revenue of 8,016 million yuan (YoY -14%) and net profit of 1,026 million yuan (YoY -25%) [5] - The company's Q3 2024 revenue was 2,317 million yuan (YoY +5%, QoQ -8%), with net profit of 263 million yuan (YoY +11%, QoQ -21%) [5] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 23.51%, with a net profit margin of 12.01% [5] - The Huludao Youchuang project is progressing as expected, with the first phase in trial production and the second phase in electromechanical installation [5] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1,255, 1,603, and 1,962 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5] Business Performance - In Q3 2024, the company's active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) business generated revenue of 1,497 million yuan (YoY +4%, QoQ -6%), with sales volume of 26,100 tons (YoY +12%, QoQ +4%) [5] - The formulation business revenue was 184 million yuan (YoY -5%, QoQ -46%), with sales volume of 6,200 tons (YoY +29%, QoQ -53%) [5] - Key product prices in Q3 2024: Bifenthrin 132,000 yuan/ton (YoY -17%, QoQ -3%), Cypermethrin 107,000 yuan/ton (YoY -16%, QoQ -0%), Glyphosate 25,100 yuan/ton (YoY -23%, QoQ -4%) [5] Financial Summary - The company's total operating income for 2024E is projected at 10,985 million yuan, with a net profit of 1,255 million yuan [6] - The gross profit margin for 2024E is expected to be 23.7%, with ROE at 11.8% [6] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are forecasted at 3.08, 3.94, and 4.82 yuan, respectively [6] Project Development - The Huludao Youchuang project involves an investment of 4,238 million yuan to produce 15,650 tons of pesticide APIs, 7,000 tons of intermediates, and 66,133 tons of by-products annually [5] - The project is expected to generate annual revenue of 4,083 million yuan, with an ROI of 17.16% and an internal rate of return of 15.65% [5] - The project includes production of 4,500 tons/year of insecticides, 8,050 tons/year of herbicides, and 3,100 tons/year of fungicides [5]