Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.087 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.48%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.422 billion yuan, up 15.10% year-on-year. The net profit for Q3 alone was 2.120 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 21.55% year-on-year, which aligns with expectations [4] - The company plans to increase its investment in its associate companies, including a 7.2 billion yuan investment in Yalong River Hydropower Development Co., Ltd. (holding 48%) and a 248 million yuan investment in Guoneng Dadu River Hydropower Development Co., Ltd. (holding 20%) [4] - The company experienced a favorable water supply and increased electricity prices during the flood season, leading to improved profitability in hydropower operations. From January to September 2024, the company generated 4.345 billion kWh of electricity, a year-on-year increase of 8.87%, with hydropower generation at 4.119 billion kWh, up 8.00% [4] - Investment income rose by 11% year-on-year to 4.505 billion yuan, benefiting from improved water supply and higher electricity prices [4] - The company forecasts net profits of 5.151 billion yuan, 5.491 billion yuan, and 5.981 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 17, 16, and 15 [4] Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue is projected at 1.578 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 5.151 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 17.1% [5] - The average on-grid electricity price for hydropower increased by 2.55% year-on-year, supporting the company's performance [4] - The company maintains a dividend commitment of no less than 0.4 yuan per share, resulting in a current dividend yield of 2.2% based on the closing price on October 14 [4]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the aviation sector, highlighting that the industry is in a recovery phase with stable domestic demand and a resurgence in international travel [63]. Core Insights - The 2024 winter flight schedule shows a 22% increase in domestic flight slots compared to 2019, with an average of 17,189 daily slots planned [2][4]. - International and regional flight slots have recovered to nearly 80% of 2019 levels, with daily international flights averaging 2,424, representing a 77% recovery [3][49]. - The report emphasizes the optimization of core resources among major domestic airlines, with a focus on improving operational efficiency [5][62]. Summary by Sections Domestic Flight Schedule - Domestic airlines are set to operate an average of 15,717 flights daily in the winter season, a 22% increase from 2019 [4][6]. - The total daily flight slots for domestic, international, and regional routes are projected to be 17,189, reflecting a 17% increase from 2019 [3][4]. - Coordinated airport slots have also increased, with a daily average of 4,808 slots, up 24% from 2019 [3][6]. International and Regional Flight Recovery - The report notes that international and regional flight schedules have been restored to approximately 77% of pre-pandemic levels, with specific regions like Australia and Southeast Asia showing recovery rates of 84% and 78% respectively [3][54]. - The recovery of international flights is expected to continue, with airlines planning to increase their flight offerings as demand grows [49][54]. Airline Performance and Market Dynamics - Major airlines such as China Southern, China Eastern, and Air China are expected to maintain significant market shares, with their flight volumes showing substantial year-on-year growth [10][62]. - The report highlights that the aviation sector is sensitive to macroeconomic factors and oil price fluctuations, but the current demand trends suggest a favorable environment for growth [63].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive industry, indicating an "Overweight" investment rating [2][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights the commercial viability of Robotaxi, with optimistic expectations for its rollout in China, despite a slightly higher than expected pricing of $30,000 [3]. - The operational cost of $0.2 per mile is deemed feasible, with potential for lower costs in China [3]. - The report anticipates that the production of Robotaxi will commence in 2026, with significant cost reductions expected through new manufacturing techniques [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Tesla Robotaxi Launch - Tesla's Robotaxi launch event on October 11 showcased its potential commercial viability, with a pricing strategy that may lead to lower costs in China [3]. - The operational cost analysis suggests profitability at $0.2 per mile, with further reductions possible in the Chinese market [3]. - The anticipated production timeline for 2026 includes engineering challenges that need to be addressed [3]. 2. Q3 Earnings Forecast - Great Wall Motors is expected to maintain stable performance with a projected net profit of 36-38 billion yuan, despite a slight decline in domestic sales [4]. - Xpeng Motors is forecasted to reduce losses, with a net profit estimate of -11 to -9 billion yuan, driven by increased deliveries and export ratios [4][5]. - Geely and BYD are expected to report strong sales growth, with Geely's Q3 sales at 534,000 units and BYD's at 1,135,000 units, reflecting significant year-on-year increases [5]. 3. Component Industry Insights - Baolong Technology is projected to see a sequential improvement in Q3 earnings, with net profit estimates between 0.95-1.05 billion yuan [6]. - Jifeng Automotive is expected to face significant losses due to asset impairment, but its seating business is anticipated to show revenue growth [6]. - Silver Wheel and Double Ring Transmission are noted for their stable performance, with Silver Wheel expected to achieve a net profit of 2.5-2.7 billion yuan in Q3 [6]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on domestic leading manufacturers like BYD and Great Wall Motors, as well as companies involved in the smart technology trend [4][6]. - It emphasizes the importance of companies with strong growth potential or overseas expansion capabilities in the parts sector, such as Fuyao Glass and New Spring [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the banking sector, anticipating policy implementation to catalyze cyclical opportunities [4][20]. Core Insights - The financial data for September 2024 indicates a continued weak credit environment, with new social financing (社融) of 3.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 369.2 billion yuan. The total social financing for the first three quarters reached 25.7 trillion yuan, down 3.7 trillion yuan year-on-year [3][7]. - The report emphasizes that while credit growth remains weak, the implementation of incremental policies is expected to stimulate effective demand recovery. The focus should shift to the improvement of high-frequency economic indicators and the optimization of credit structure [3][4]. - Government bond issuance continues to be a major contributor to social financing, with 1.5 trillion yuan issued in September, an increase of 543.7 billion yuan year-on-year. The report anticipates that government bonds will remain a crucial support for social financing in the near future [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Data Overview - In September, new credit amounted to 1.59 trillion yuan, a decrease of 720 billion yuan year-on-year, with the stock credit growth rate declining to 7.8% [3][7]. - M1 decreased by 7.4% year-on-year, while M2 grew by 6.8%, reflecting a recovery in M2 growth rate [3][7]. Credit Structure - Corporate loans showed a mixed performance, with medium to long-term loans decreasing by 294.4 billion yuan year-on-year, while short-term loans also saw a decline [3][4]. - Residential medium to long-term loans decreased by 317 billion yuan year-on-year, but there are signs of recovery in housing sentiment in major cities [3][4]. Government Policy Impact - The report highlights a more proactive fiscal stance, with expectations of increased government debt issuance to support social financing. The Ministry of Finance has indicated plans to enhance debt limits to alleviate local government debt pressures [3][4]. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on smaller, high-quality banks with strong performance and resilience, such as Suzhou Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and others, as they are expected to benefit from cyclical recovery [4][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the basic chemical industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The traditional off-season in Q3 2024, combined with weakening energy costs, is expected to pressure downstream replenishment demand, leading to a gradual decline in price differentials for basic chemicals [4][5]. - The domestic chemical demand is anticipated to bottom out under policy support, while external demand continues to materialize under a "soft landing" scenario [5]. - Key sectors to watch include phosphoric fertilizers, coal chemicals, vitamins, spandex, fluorochemicals, tires, titanium dioxide, explosives, semiconductors, and packaging materials, with significant year-on-year profit growth expected in Q3 2024 for these sectors [4][5]. Summary by Relevant Sections Q3 2024 Performance Forecast - The average EPS for the first three quarters of 2024 is projected to be 0.68 CNY, an increase of 8.4% year-on-year, with Q3 EPS expected at 0.23 CNY, up 14.9% year-on-year but down 10.6% quarter-on-quarter [4]. - Specific companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Luxi Chemical are highlighted for their expected performance, with Wanhua's Q3 net profit forecasted at 3.8 billion CNY, down 8% year-on-year [4][5]. Key Company Insights - **Fluorochemical Sector**: Companies like Juhua Co. and Sanmei Co. are expected to see significant profit increases due to the implementation of quota systems and rising demand for refrigerants [4][5]. - **Tire Sector**: Companies such as Sailun and Linglong are projected to benefit from strong order and production demand, with Q3 profits expected to rise significantly year-on-year [4][5]. - **New Materials Sector**: The semiconductor materials segment is expected to show steady growth, with companies like Yake Technology and Huate Gas projected to perform well [4][5]. Traditional Industry Focus - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring leading companies in traditional sectors, including Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng, as they navigate the challenges of the off-season and fluctuating energy costs [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [4]. Core Insights - The company reported better-than-expected performance in Q3 2024, with a revenue of 46.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12%, but a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.42 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19% [4]. - The integration of the phosphate group has positively impacted profits, contributing approximately 1 billion yuan to the quarterly net profit [4]. - The company is expected to benefit from the high demand for phosphate fertilizers and the integration of its operations, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2024-2026 [4]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 16.99%, an increase of 2.86 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The financial expenses decreased by 1.68 billion yuan year-on-year, contributing to improved profitability [4]. - The company's total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 64.38 billion yuan, with a net profit of 5.53 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.3% [5][6]. Market Performance - The company's stock price closed at 22.69 yuan, with a market capitalization of 41.62 billion yuan [1]. - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE) for the company is projected to be 8x for 2024, indicating a favorable valuation compared to earnings [5][6]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue benefiting from the high profitability of phosphate fertilizers and the integration of its operations, with profit forecasts adjusted to 55.32 billion yuan for 2024, 58.15 billion yuan for 2025, and 61.23 billion yuan for 2026 [4]. - The report highlights the company's ongoing efforts to optimize its debt structure and reduce financial expenses, which is expected to further enhance its financial stability [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [3][4][8]. Core Insights - The real estate industry is currently experiencing a bottoming phase, with performance expected to improve gradually. The report anticipates a slow recovery trajectory characterized by an "L"-shaped pattern due to ongoing macroeconomic and industry policy support [3][4]. - The report highlights that the industry's fundamentals remain weak, with sales volume and prices under pressure. However, recent policy measures are expected to stabilize the market and support a gradual recovery [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, including interest rate cuts on existing mortgages and adjustments to down payment requirements for second homes [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The report notes that the real estate sector's performance is still at a low point, with expectations for Q3 2024 performance to remain under pressure. The anticipated recovery is expected to be slow and uneven [3][4]. - Sales data indicates a significant decline, with major developers experiencing a year-on-year sales area drop of 41% from Q1 to Q3 2024. Monthly sales declines were reported at -27%, -29%, and -35% for July, August, and September respectively [3][4]. Company Profitability - The report provides projections for net profit growth for major companies in Q3 2024, with expected growth rates ranging from +5% to -40%: - Companies with growth of +5% to +10%: China Merchants Jinling [5] - Companies with growth of -10% to 0%: New Dazheng [5] - Companies with growth of -30% to -40%: China Merchants Shekou, Binjiang Group, Poly Developments, New Town Holdings [5] - Companies with growth below -40%: Jianfa Group [5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong product capabilities and those poised for valuation recovery, including Binjiang Group, Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, Jianfa Group, and others [3][4]. - It also suggests monitoring second-hand housing intermediaries and property management firms such as I Love My Home and China Resources Vientiane [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the aviation sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry in the near term [75]. Core Insights - The aviation sector is characterized as a typical cyclical industry, sensitive to macroeconomic conditions, supply-demand dynamics, and fluctuations in oil prices and exchange rates. The current supply-demand fundamentals are improving, with stable domestic demand and a continuous recovery in international demand, suggesting a high certainty of long-term supply-demand differences [2][74]. - Historical analysis shows that each upward cycle in aviation stocks is typically accompanied by a bull market in the broader market, with significant price increases during these periods. The report highlights five historical upward cycles in aviation stocks prior to the pandemic, with the aviation index often outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [2][24][61]. Summary by Sections 1. Factors Influencing Aviation Stock Volatility and Historical Performance - The aviation sector's performance is influenced by macroeconomic conditions, supply-demand relationships, and oil price fluctuations. Historical data indicates that aviation stocks generally require multiple supporting factors for price increases, with expectations often driving performance more than actual earnings [2][4]. 2. Review of Historical Upward Cycles in Aviation - The report reviews five significant upward cycles in aviation stocks, noting that during these periods, the aviation index typically outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index. For instance, from 2006 to 2008, the aviation index rose by 695% compared to 340% for the Shanghai Composite [24][25][49]. 3. Outlook for the Aviation Sector and Influencing Factors - The current environment for the aviation sector shows a low growth rate in market supply, with domestic passenger aircraft fleet numbers increasing by 2.9% year-on-year. Demand for air travel is on the rise, with both domestic and international passenger volumes expected to improve. The report anticipates that as international routes normalize, the supply-demand gap will widen, benefiting the sector [64][68][71].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The report discusses the acquisition of various assets and equity stakes by the company, which is expected to enhance its fleet structure and expand its chemical and LPG transportation business [6] - The integration of liquid bulk transportation supply chains is highlighted, with the company gaining control over a specialized fleet of LPG and chemical vessels [6] - The report maintains profit forecasts for the company, projecting net profits of 5.812 billion, 6.959 billion, and 8.414 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [7][8] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Data - Closing price: 14.24 CNY - One-year high/low: 18.63/11.49 CNY - Market capitalization: 49,481 million CNY - Dividend yield: 2.46% [2] Financial Data - Total revenue for 2023: 22,091 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 18.4% - Net profit for 2023: 3,351 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 130.0% - Earnings per share for 2023: 0.70 CNY [7][8] Acquisition Details - The company plans to acquire 70% of Shenzhen Longpeng, 87% of Hainan Zhaogang, and 15% of Xizhong Island Port, along with two LPG vessels for a total of approximately 1.26 billion CNY [6] - The acquisition is expected to contribute over 1 billion CNY in profit, with a return on equity (ROE) close to 10% [6] Fleet Expansion - Post-acquisition, the company's fleet will increase to 168 vessels with a total deadweight tonnage of 20.99 million [6] - The report details the operational and order status of the LPG and chemical vessels, indicating a robust expansion strategy [6]

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究/ 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 有色金属 2024 年 10 月 14 日 金价上行，工业金属、能源金属承 压 看好 —— 有色金属 2024 年三季报前瞻 相关研究 《金属价格表现强势，业绩同比普遍增长 —— 有色金属&钢铁行业 2024 年中报前 瞻 》 2024/07/10 《有色大宗价格上涨，一季度业绩普遍环 比增长-有色金属 2023 年一季报前瞻》 2023/04/13 证券分析师 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 马焰明 (8621)23297818× maym@swsresear ...