上 市 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 汽车 2024 年 09 月 04 日 岱美股份 (603730) ——半年报符合预期，关注产品集成化趋势 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 09 月 04 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 9.12 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 18.69/8.18 | | 市净率 | 3.5 | | 息率（分红/股价） | 4.39 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 15,073 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 2,784.28/8,226.24 | | | | | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|-------------------------------| | | | | 基础数据 : | 2024 年 06 月 30 日 | | | 2.63 | | 每股净资产（元） | | | 资产负债率 % | 34.64 | | 总股本 /流通 A 股（百万） | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the construction industry, indicating optimism for improvement in operations in the second half of 2024 [5][7]. Core Insights - The construction industry experienced a decline in revenue and profit in the first half of 2024, with total revenue of CNY 3.97 trillion, down 2.7% year-on-year, and net profit of CNY 933 billion, down 11.1% year-on-year [4][11]. - The industry is expected to see operational improvements in the latter half of 2024, driven by strong economic growth targets and increased infrastructure investment [5][7]. - The report highlights that the industry is focusing on enhancing asset quality rather than aggressive growth, influenced by local government debt pressures and a downturn in the real estate sector [4][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Financial Overview of the Construction Industry - In 2024H1, the construction industry reported a revenue of CNY 3.97 trillion, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.7%, and a net profit of CNY 933 billion, down 11.1% [4][11]. - The quarterly breakdown shows Q1 revenue at CNY 1.96 trillion (+2.0% YoY) and Q2 at CNY 2.01 trillion (-6.9% YoY) [4][11]. 2. ROE Analysis - The overall Return on Equity (ROE) for the industry decreased by 0.55 percentage points in 2024H1, with state-owned enterprises experiencing a decline of 0.45 percentage points [21][22]. 3. Profitability Metrics - The industry’s gross margin improved to 10.1%, up 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin decreased to 2.35%, down 0.22 percentage points [4][11][24]. - The report notes that the decline in net margin is primarily due to increased expense ratios and higher impairment provisions [4][11]. 4. Cash Flow Analysis - The industry faced a significant cash outflow, with operating cash flow netting CNY 4,906 billion, a year-on-year increase in outflow of CNY 2,761 billion [4][16]. - The cash collection ratio for Q1 was 102% and for Q2 was 75%, indicating a decline in payment capabilities from clients [4][16]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on state-owned enterprises such as China Railway and China State Construction, highlighting their competitive advantages and potential for value [5][7]. - It also suggests monitoring companies like China Communications Construction and China Metallurgical Group for investment opportunities [5][7].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for companies in the shipping and shipbuilding sector, particularly highlighting China Shipbuilding, China Heavy Industry, and China Ship Defense as key investment opportunities [66]. Core Insights - The shipping and shipbuilding sector is currently in the early stages of a long cycle, with supply chain disruptions and aging fleets driving demand for new vessels [2][16]. - The report emphasizes that the shipbuilding capacity is expected to remain constrained, with current capacity at approximately 65.88% of the peak levels seen in 2012 [22]. - The report notes that the average age of the global fleet is increasing, which typically precedes a new cycle of vessel orders and deliveries [31][32]. - The relationship between shipping rates and newbuild prices is highlighted, with newbuild prices expected to reach new highs, indicating strong profitability potential for shipbuilders [42]. Summary by Sections 1. Shipping and Shipbuilding Analysis Framework - The analysis framework focuses on high-dimensional factors affecting the shipping industry, including geopolitical events, supply chain disruptions, and technological advancements [4][5]. - The report identifies that the current market dynamics are influenced more by supply constraints than by demand fluctuations, marking a shift from previous cycles [7][8]. 2. Shipping and Shipbuilding Cycle Position Review - The report indicates that the shipping sector is in the early stages of a long cycle, with shipyard capacity tightening and demand for new vessels increasing due to fleet aging [16][21]. - Current shipyard capacity is significantly lower than historical peaks, with only 13% of the total fleet represented by current orders compared to 55% during the peak in 2008 [31][32]. 3. Shipping Stock Price Review and Core Cycle Indicators - The report tracks the correlation between shipping stock prices and core cycle indicators, noting that stock prices are expected to rise as shipping rates increase [52][66]. - The report highlights that the market is currently in a phase of validating stock prices against operational performance, with potential for significant upside as demand continues to grow [66]. 4. Shipping Valuation Analysis - The valuation analysis indicates that the current market valuation of shipping companies is at a historical low relative to their order book, suggesting substantial upside potential [66]. - The report emphasizes that the price-to-orderbook ratio for key companies is currently at 0.98, indicating a strong buy signal for investors [66].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [4][14]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.35 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-over-year decrease of 13.94%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -80.82 million yuan, marking a significant decline from profitability [3][6]. - The decline in revenue is primarily attributed to non-strategic business areas, while strategic business segments have remained stable, with financial sector revenue showing a slight decrease of 0.83% year-over-year [3][6]. - The asset management software business has seen substantial growth, with a year-over-year increase of 58.74% in revenue, indicating potential future business opportunities [3][6]. - Cost control measures have been effective, with a notable decrease in employee compensation and lower expense ratios in sales, management, and R&D [3][6]. - The gross profit margin has increased due to a shift in business structure, with the financial business gross margin at 40.11% despite a year-over-year decline [3][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 2.35 billion yuan, with a year-over-year decline of 13.94% [3][6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -80.82 million yuan, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 233.19% [3][6]. - The company’s financial sector revenue was stable, while non-financial sector revenue decreased by 21.14% year-over-year [3][6]. - The forecast for total revenue from 2024 to 2026 is adjusted to 58.20 billion yuan, 64.11 billion yuan, and 72.07 billion yuan, respectively [4][14]. Strategic Focus - The company is focusing on its core business in financial IT, particularly in securities and asset management, while reducing its non-financial business operations [15]. - The core products are continuously being iterated, with successful implementations in the securities and asset management sectors [12][14]. - The company is leveraging its technology platform and core products to enhance its market position in the financial IT sector [12][14].

上 市 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 交通运输 2024 年 09 月 03 日 中谷物流 (603565) ——业绩符合预期，外贸改善对冲内贸压力 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 09 月 03 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 8.10 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 10.45/6.54 | | 市净率 | 1.7 | | 息率（分红/股价） | 8.89 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 17,011 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 2,802.98/8,268.05 | | 注："息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|-------------------------------| | | | | 基础数据 : | 2024 年 06 月 30 日 | | 每股净资产（元） | 4.75 | | 资产负债率 % | 58.83 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company has shown significant recovery in coal power performance and steady growth in diversified energy business [5] - The company reported a revenue of 13.68 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 18.66% to 2.19 billion yuan [5] - The average on-grid electricity price decreased by 0.016 yuan/kWh to 0.511 yuan/kWh in the first half of 2024, while the average coal price dropped by 163 yuan/ton to 984 yuan/ton [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of 136.80 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, with a net profit of 21.91 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 18.66% [5] - The basic earnings per share (EPS) for the first half of 2024 was 0.447 yuan, up 17.94% year-on-year [5] - The company’s coal power segment saw a gross profit increase of 148.55% to 905 million yuan, while gas power gross profit slightly decreased by 0.49% to 353 million yuan [5] Energy Production - The company generated 264.09 billion kWh of electricity in the first half of 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [5] - The installed capacity for renewable energy reached 5.2784 million kW, accounting for 30.86% of the company's total installed capacity [5] - Wind power generation decreased by 2.62% to 27.53 billion kWh, while solar and distributed generation increased by 29.71% to 14.54 billion kWh [5] Upstream Resource Expansion - The company is actively expanding upstream resources in oil and gas, achieving a revenue of 1.748 billion yuan from oil and gas pipeline transportation, a year-on-year increase of 38.36% [5] - Investment income from associates and joint ventures reached 923 million yuan, up 5.72% year-on-year, with a significant increase of 69.13% in investment income from joint ventures [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are 3.958 billion, 4.476 billion, and 4.836 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 10, 9, and 8 times [5] - The expected dividend payout ratio for 2024 is 55%, leading to a projected dividend yield of 5.7% based on the current stock price [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company's H1 2024 performance met expectations, with revenue of 906 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.40%, and a net profit of 236 million yuan, up 35.51% year-on-year [2][3] - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by the photovoltaic sector, which contributed 905 million yuan in revenue, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 35.94% [2] - The company has maintained robust profitability, with a gross margin of 48.06% and a net margin of 26.07% in H1 2024 [2] - The demand for laser equipment is expected to rise due to advancements in photovoltaic technology, particularly with the large-scale industrialization of N-type battery technologies [2] - The company is also actively expanding into non-photovoltaic sectors, including high-end consumer electronics and integrated circuits, which may provide new growth opportunities [2] Financial Summary - For H1 2024, the company reported total revenue of 906 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 34.4% [4] - The projected net profits for 2024 to 2026 are 562 million yuan, 689 million yuan, and 858 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 21.9%, 22.7%, and 24.4% [4][3] - The earnings per share are expected to increase from 2.06 yuan in 2024 to 3.14 yuan in 2026 [4] - The company's gross margin is projected to remain stable around 48.4% to 48.9% over the next few years [4] Market Data - As of September 3, 2024, the company's closing price was 41.17 yuan, with a market capitalization of 6.88 billion yuan [5] - The company has a price-to-earnings ratio projected at 20, 16, and 13 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4][5]

计算机 证 券 研 究 报 告 2024 年 09 月 03 日 深信服 (300454) ——24Q2 降幅收窄，企业端展现韧性 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 09 月 03 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 45.32 | | 一年内最高 / 最低（元） | 107.99/44.04 | | 市净率 息率（分红/股价） | 2.4 0.11 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 12,520 | | 上证指数 / 深证成指 | 2,802.98/8,268.05 | | 注："息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | --- | --- | |------------------------------|-------------------------------| | | | | | | | 基础数据 : | 2024 年 06 月 30 日 | | 每股净资产（元） | 19.24 | | | | | 资产负债率 % | 44. ...

上 市 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 汽车 公 司 研 究/ 公 司 点 评 2024 年 09 月 03 日 长城汽车 (601633) ——半年报净利润超预期，出海持续性值得关注 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 09 月 03 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 22.42 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 31.30/19.11 | | 市净率 | 2.6 | | 息率（分红 / 股价） | 1.34 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 138,501 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 2,802.98/8,268.05 | | 注："息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|-------------------------------| | | | | | | | 基础数据 : | 2024 年 06 月 30 日 | | 每股净资产（元） ...

上 市 公 司 传媒 证 券 研 究 报 告 2024 年 09 月 04 日 上海电影 (601595) ——IP 业务持续兑现，集团管理层焕新，三大战略继续 推进 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 09 月 03 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 18.97 | | 一年内最高 / 最低（元） | 36.42/16.12 | | 市净率 | 5.1 | | 息率（分红/股价） | 0.60 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 8,502 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 2,802.98/8,268.05 | | | | 投资要点： | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|-------------------------------| | | | | | | | 基础数据 : | 2024 年 06 月 30 日 | | 每股净资产（元） | 3.72 | | | | | 资产负债率 % | 35. ...