Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for companies in the shipping and shipbuilding sector, particularly highlighting China Shipbuilding, China Heavy Industry, and China Ship Defense as key investment opportunities [66]. Core Insights - The shipping and shipbuilding sector is currently in the early stages of a long cycle, with supply chain disruptions and aging fleets driving demand for new vessels [2][16]. - The report emphasizes that the shipbuilding capacity is expected to remain constrained, with current capacity at approximately 65.88% of the peak levels seen in 2012 [22]. - The report notes that the average age of the global fleet is increasing, which typically precedes a new cycle of vessel orders and deliveries [31][32]. - The relationship between shipping rates and newbuild prices is highlighted, with newbuild prices expected to reach new highs, indicating strong profitability potential for shipbuilders [42]. Summary by Sections 1. Shipping and Shipbuilding Analysis Framework - The analysis framework focuses on high-dimensional factors affecting the shipping industry, including geopolitical events, supply chain disruptions, and technological advancements [4][5]. - The report identifies that the current market dynamics are influenced more by supply constraints than by demand fluctuations, marking a shift from previous cycles [7][8]. 2. Shipping and Shipbuilding Cycle Position Review - The report indicates that the shipping sector is in the early stages of a long cycle, with shipyard capacity tightening and demand for new vessels increasing due to fleet aging [16][21]. - Current shipyard capacity is significantly lower than historical peaks, with only 13% of the total fleet represented by current orders compared to 55% during the peak in 2008 [31][32]. 3. Shipping Stock Price Review and Core Cycle Indicators - The report tracks the correlation between shipping stock prices and core cycle indicators, noting that stock prices are expected to rise as shipping rates increase [52][66]. - The report highlights that the market is currently in a phase of validating stock prices against operational performance, with potential for significant upside as demand continues to grow [66]. 4. Shipping Valuation Analysis - The valuation analysis indicates that the current market valuation of shipping companies is at a historical low relative to their order book, suggesting substantial upside potential [66]. - The report emphasizes that the price-to-orderbook ratio for key companies is currently at 0.98, indicating a strong buy signal for investors [66].

上 市 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 计算机 2024 年 09 月 04 日 金证股份 (600446) — 战略业务进一步聚焦，信创案例券商、资管持续落地 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 09 月 03 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 9.53 | | 一年内最高 / 最低（元） | 14.15/8.85 | | 市净率 | 2.4 | | 息率（分红/股价） | 0.63 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 9,018 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 2,802.98/8,268.05 | | 注："息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | --- | --- | |------------------------------|------------------------| | | | | | | | 基础数据 : 2024 | 年 06 月 30 日 | | 每股净资产（元） | 3.99 | | | | | 资产负债率 ...

上 市 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 交通运输 2024 年 09 月 03 日 中谷物流 (603565) ——业绩符合预期，外贸改善对冲内贸压力 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 09 月 03 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 8.10 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 10.45/6.54 | | 市净率 | 1.7 | | 息率（分红/股价） | 8.89 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 17,011 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 2,802.98/8,268.05 | | 注："息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|-------------------------------| | | | | 基础数据 : | 2024 年 06 月 30 日 | | 每股净资产（元） | 4.75 | | 资产负债率 % | 58.83 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company has shown significant recovery in coal power performance and steady growth in diversified energy business [5] - The company reported a revenue of 13.68 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 18.66% to 2.19 billion yuan [5] - The average on-grid electricity price decreased by 0.016 yuan/kWh to 0.511 yuan/kWh in the first half of 2024, while the average coal price dropped by 163 yuan/ton to 984 yuan/ton [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of 136.80 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, with a net profit of 21.91 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 18.66% [5] - The basic earnings per share (EPS) for the first half of 2024 was 0.447 yuan, up 17.94% year-on-year [5] - The company’s coal power segment saw a gross profit increase of 148.55% to 905 million yuan, while gas power gross profit slightly decreased by 0.49% to 353 million yuan [5] Energy Production - The company generated 264.09 billion kWh of electricity in the first half of 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [5] - The installed capacity for renewable energy reached 5.2784 million kW, accounting for 30.86% of the company's total installed capacity [5] - Wind power generation decreased by 2.62% to 27.53 billion kWh, while solar and distributed generation increased by 29.71% to 14.54 billion kWh [5] Upstream Resource Expansion - The company is actively expanding upstream resources in oil and gas, achieving a revenue of 1.748 billion yuan from oil and gas pipeline transportation, a year-on-year increase of 38.36% [5] - Investment income from associates and joint ventures reached 923 million yuan, up 5.72% year-on-year, with a significant increase of 69.13% in investment income from joint ventures [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are 3.958 billion, 4.476 billion, and 4.836 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 10, 9, and 8 times [5] - The expected dividend payout ratio for 2024 is 55%, leading to a projected dividend yield of 5.7% based on the current stock price [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company's H1 2024 performance met expectations, with revenue of 906 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.40%, and a net profit of 236 million yuan, up 35.51% year-on-year [2][3] - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by the photovoltaic sector, which contributed 905 million yuan in revenue, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 35.94% [2] - The company has maintained robust profitability, with a gross margin of 48.06% and a net margin of 26.07% in H1 2024 [2] - The demand for laser equipment is expected to rise due to advancements in photovoltaic technology, particularly with the large-scale industrialization of N-type battery technologies [2] - The company is also actively expanding into non-photovoltaic sectors, including high-end consumer electronics and integrated circuits, which may provide new growth opportunities [2] Financial Summary - For H1 2024, the company reported total revenue of 906 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 34.4% [4] - The projected net profits for 2024 to 2026 are 562 million yuan, 689 million yuan, and 858 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 21.9%, 22.7%, and 24.4% [4][3] - The earnings per share are expected to increase from 2.06 yuan in 2024 to 3.14 yuan in 2026 [4] - The company's gross margin is projected to remain stable around 48.4% to 48.9% over the next few years [4] Market Data - As of September 3, 2024, the company's closing price was 41.17 yuan, with a market capitalization of 6.88 billion yuan [5] - The company has a price-to-earnings ratio projected at 20, 16, and 13 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4][5]

计算机 证 券 研 究 报 告 2024 年 09 月 03 日 深信服 (300454) ——24Q2 降幅收窄，企业端展现韧性 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 09 月 03 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 45.32 | | 一年内最高 / 最低（元） | 107.99/44.04 | | 市净率 息率（分红/股价） | 2.4 0.11 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 12,520 | | 上证指数 / 深证成指 | 2,802.98/8,268.05 | | 注："息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | --- | --- | |------------------------------|-------------------------------| | | | | | | | 基础数据 : | 2024 年 06 月 30 日 | | 每股净资产（元） | 19.24 | | | | | 资产负债率 % | 44. ...

上 市 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 汽车 公 司 研 究/ 公 司 点 评 2024 年 09 月 03 日 长城汽车 (601633) ——半年报净利润超预期，出海持续性值得关注 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 09 月 03 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 22.42 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 31.30/19.11 | | 市净率 | 2.6 | | 息率（分红 / 股价） | 1.34 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 138,501 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 2,802.98/8,268.05 | | 注："息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|-------------------------------| | | | | | | | 基础数据 : | 2024 年 06 月 30 日 | | 每股净资产（元） ...

上 市 公 司 传媒 证 券 研 究 报 告 2024 年 09 月 04 日 上海电影 (601595) ——IP 业务持续兑现，集团管理层焕新，三大战略继续 推进 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 09 月 03 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 18.97 | | 一年内最高 / 最低（元） | 36.42/16.12 | | 市净率 | 5.1 | | 息率（分红/股价） | 0.60 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 8,502 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 2,802.98/8,268.05 | | | | 投资要点： | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|-------------------------------| | | | | | | | 基础数据 : | 2024 年 06 月 30 日 | | 每股净资产（元） | 3.72 | | | | | 资产负债率 % | 35. ...

行 业 及 产 业 房地产 行 业 研 究/ 行 业 深 度 2024 年 09 月 03 日板块报表再走弱，供给出清更加剧 看好 ——2024H1 房地产板块财报综述 本期投资提示： ⚫ 24H1 板块营收放缓，毛利率下行、费率提升、少数股东损益高位，房企业绩大幅下滑。 24H1 板块营收同比-18.1%，较 23 年-20.4pct，主要由于 22 年销售增速开始回落；从 房企结构来看营收增速：二线-13%>一线-15%>三线-29%。24H1 净利润同比-172%， 较 23 年-259pct，各线房企业绩均值均出现亏损；多数房企业绩大幅下降源于结算偏 弱、结转毛利率下行、费率提升、叠加少数股东损益规模相对高位；从房企结构来看业绩 增速：一线-122%>三线-125%>二线-4156%。展望后续，尽管 22-23 年大部分房企业 绩大幅下降形成了低基数，但房企资金端仍显紧张、影响竣工结算节奏，毛利率仍将略有 下行、三项费用率有望高位回落，综合考虑预计 24 年板块业绩仍将偏弱。 ⚫ 24H1 毛利率和净利率均再下降，三项费率提升、少数股东损益高位、减值高位略降。 24H1 板块毛利率 14.8%，较 2 ...

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究/ 行 业 点 评 - 证 券 研 究 报 告 国防军工/ 航海装备Ⅱ 2024 年 09 月 03 日 上行周期初期，同业竞争问题解决 第一步开启 看好 ——中国船舶、中国重工重组点评 相关研究 证券分析师 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 联系人 王晨鉴 (8621)23297818× wangcj@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： ⚫ 事件：中国船舶、中国重工发布公告，正在筹划由中国船舶通过向中国重工全体股东发 行 A 股股票的方式换股吸收合并中国重工。自 2024 年 9 月 3 日（星期二）开市起开 始停牌，预计停牌时间不超过 10 个交易日。本次交易的具体交易方案、换股价格、债 权债务处理、员工安置、异议股东保护机制等安排将由双方沟通、论证、协商后，在正 式签署的交易协议中进行约定。双方应积极给予另一方以必要的配合，全力推进本次合 并，并完成正式交易协议的签署。 ⚫ 同业竞争问题解决第一步启动，关注后续中船防务与沪东中华造船同业竞争问题解决节 奏。参考中船防务 2024 年半年报，中国船舶集团 2021 ...