上 市 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 食品饮料 2024 年 09 月 02 日 三只松鼠 (300783) ——上半年收入亮眼 盈利持续改善 | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 09 月 02 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 17.53 | | 一年内最高 / 最低（元） | 27.53/14.68 | | 市净率 | 2.6 1.43 | | 息率（分红/股价） | 4,901 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） 上证指数/深证成指 | 2,811.04/8,172.21 | | 注："息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|------------------------| | | | | | | | 基础数据 : 2024 | 年 06 月 30 日 | | | | | 每股净资产（元） | 6.83 | | 资产负债率 % | ...

上 市 公 司 电子 证 券 研 究 报 告 公 司 研 究/ 公 司 点 评 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 09 月 02 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 14.74 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 25.00/14.17 | | 市净率 | 1.6 | | 息率（分红/股价） | 0.68 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 877 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 2,811.04/8,172.21 | | --- | --- | |------------------------------|------------------------| | | | | 基础数据 : 2024 | 年 06 月 30 日 | | 每股净资产（元） | 9.54 | | 资产负债率 % | 22.95 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 75/60 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 09-0410-0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company has shown significant recovery across its factories, with steady progress in major project constructions. The revenue for the first half of 2024 reached 11.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.83%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 323 million yuan, marking a return to profitability [6]. - The company is actively expanding its high-performance packaging business, particularly in the server and high-computing product markets, leveraging long-term partnerships with industry leaders like AMD [6]. - The acquisition of 26% equity in Jinglong Technology for 1.378 billion yuan is expected to enhance the company's competitive edge in the high-end integrated circuit testing sector [6]. - The profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been raised, with net profit estimates adjusted to 879 million yuan, 1.087 billion yuan, and 1.402 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 34, 28, and 22 [6]. Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price as of August 30, 2024: 19.90 yuan - One-year high/low: 27.60/17.11 yuan - Market capitalization: 30,197 million yuan [3][4]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for H1 2024: 11.08 billion yuan, YoY +11.83% - Net profit for H1 2024: 323 million yuan, with a significant QoQ increase of 127.6% in Q2 [6]. - Revenue projections for 2024E: 25.265 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 13.5% [8]. Business Segments - The company is focusing on the recovery of various business segments, including mobile and consumer markets, with a notable increase in revenue from emerging markets such as RF products and advanced packaging [6]. - The new base for MCU and power devices has shown rapid growth, with a revenue increase of 140% YoY in H1 2024 [6]. Profitability Metrics - Gross margin for H1 2024: 14.2% - Return on equity (ROE) for 2024E: 5.9% [8].

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Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" investment rating for Jiuyang Co., Ltd. [4][5] Core Views - Jiuyang's performance in H1 2024 was below expectations, with revenue of 4.387 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 175 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 29% [4][5] - Domestic sales outperformed the industry, while external sales were impacted by base effects. Domestic revenue reached 3.555 billion yuan, up 4.66% year-on-year, while external sales were 832 million yuan, down 9.69% year-on-year [4][5] - The company is expected to benefit from channel reforms and an increase in market share in core categories, despite a challenging industry environment [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - H1 2024 revenue was 4.387 billion yuan, with a net profit of 175 million yuan, reflecting a decline in profitability [4][5] - The company anticipates revenue growth in the coming years, with projections of 10.272 billion yuan in 2024, 11.283 billion yuan in 2025, and 12.185 billion yuan in 2026 [5][7] - The net profit forecast for 2024 is 414 million yuan, with expected growth rates of 6.4% in 2024, 17.1% in 2025, and 11.2% in 2026 [5][7] Market Position - Jiuyang's core product categories, such as food processors and nutrition pots, have shown growth despite a general decline in the kitchen appliance market [4][5] - The company has successfully increased its market share in domestic sales channels, with a focus on traditional sales channels and direct sales [4][5] Future Outlook - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2024-2026, with expected earnings per share of 0.54 yuan in 2024, 0.63 yuan in 2025, and 0.70 yuan in 2026 [5][7] - Long-term growth is anticipated from new product categories and improved supply chain efficiencies [5][7]

行 业 及 产 业 食品饮料/ 证 券 研 究 报 告 白酒Ⅱ 2024 年 09 月 02 日白酒 2024 年中报总结 看好 ——24Q2 增速放缓，基本面压力开始显现 本期投资提示： ⚫ 投资分析意见：受宏观经济影响，行业整体需求短期仍有压力，但头部集中、分化加剧 的大趋势不变。从 24Q2 的基本面表现看，增速普遍放缓，现金流明显承压。由于 24Q2 需求进一步走弱，如果 24Q3 需求无法得到改善，预计库存会进一步增加，或者 企业会主动调整全年增长目标。从中长期来看，我们认为当下增长速度不是最为重要 的，企业的战略定力和执行力更加重要，维持良性健康的渠道质量，才能在行业重回上 行周期阶段更具增长弹性。展望 24 年下半年，若外部环境不出现明显改善，预计白酒 基本面仍有一定压力。结合潜在分红水平和中长期的结构性空间，头部公司具备性价比 和长期投资价值。重点推荐：贵州茅台、山西汾酒、迎驾贡酒、五粮液、今世缘、古井 贡酒。 重要信息回顾： ⚫ 基本面分析：24Q2 增速放缓，基本面压力开始显现 ⚫ 1、白酒行业 2024H1 实现营业收入 2347.04 亿元，同比增长 14.23%，净利润 952.50 ...

行 业 及 产 业 公用事业 行 业 研 究/ 行 业 点 评 - 2024 年 09 月 02 日 7 月天然气消费保持高增 气价联动 机制日益成熟 看好 ——申万公用环保周报(24/08/25~24/08/31) 本期投资提示： ⚫ 天然气： 7 月全国天然气表观消费量增长 7.7%，销气量利齐升助力城燃业绩改善。 2024 年 7 月，全国天然气表观消费量 351.5 亿 m³，同比增长 7.7%，1-7 月消费量达 2489.6 亿 m³，同比增长 9.7%。7 月单月我国天然气进口量 1086 万吨，同比增长 5.6%。天然气产量 200 亿 m³, 同比增长 7.9%，天然气购销两端继续维持高景气度。供 给端，国际各主消费区天然气库存充足，欧洲提前两个多月完成储气目标，虽供给端扰 动导致近期全球气价波动较大，但进口气经济性较前两年仍逐步凸显。国内天然气产量 稳步提升，保障我国天然气供给渠道多元、量价稳定。消费端，高毛差的工商气消费需 求持续反弹。近期多地居民气价密集调整，尤其是天津市连续两年调增居民气价，标志 气价联动机制的趋于成熟，有效性逐步提升，利好城燃居民气价毛差持续修复。1H24 城燃公司 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the Hong Kong stock market, particularly on the technology sector, indicating a favorable investment environment post mid-year earnings reports [3][4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential for liquidity improvement in the Hong Kong market following the release of mid-year earnings, with expectations for a rebound in large-cap company fundamentals and a favorable global interest rate environment [4][5]. - The healthcare sector, particularly the Hong Kong pharmaceutical companies, has shown strong performance with significant revenue growth reported in the first half of 2024 [7][8]. - The report highlights the positive earnings results from major companies in the consumer services and education sectors, indicating a recovery in consumer demand and industry profitability [12][20]. Summary by Sections Overseas Consumption Services - The report notes the performance of major companies like Haidilao, which reported a 14% increase in revenue to 21.5 billion RMB in the first half of 2024, and a core operating profit growth of 13% [13][15]. - Ctrip's second quarter 2024 revenue grew by 14% to 12.8 billion RMB, with a significant recovery in outbound travel bookings [16]. Overseas Pharmaceuticals - The Hong Kong healthcare index rose by 3.72%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 1.58 percentage points [7]. - Notable earnings from companies include: - Innovent Biologics: 1H24 revenue of 3.952 billion RMB, up 46% year-on-year [8]. - Hansoh Pharmaceutical: 1H24 revenue of 6.506 billion RMB, up 44% year-on-year [8]. - The report also mentions the approval of innovative drugs like Regeneron's CD3/CD20 bispecific antibody in the EU [10]. Overseas Education - The report indicates a positive trend in the education sector, with companies like New Oriental and TAL Education showing potential for revenue growth as regulatory conditions stabilize [20][25]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with nationwide reach and those adapting to new educational policies [20]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates a favorable macroeconomic environment characterized by a potential soft landing for the US economy and the commencement of a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle, which could enhance liquidity in the Hong Kong market [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the industry, indicating that it is expected to outperform the overall market performance [3][24]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of AI-driven computing needs and the opportunities for extending the industrial chain, particularly in the context of the construction of intelligent computing centers in China [3][4][10]. - Operators are accelerating the construction of computing networks, with significant investments in national computing networks and intelligent computing scale [3][6]. - The IDC sector is evolving, with AIDC emerging as a new growth driver, leading to a shift in demand towards high-density computing solutions [4][10]. Summary by Sections Operators - Operators are focusing on the rapid development of computing networks, particularly in the context of the "East Data West Computing" initiative, with significant investments in nationwide computing networks and intelligent computing scales [3][6]. - In the first half of the year, mobile computing scale reached 8.2 EFLOPS (FP32), while intelligent computing scale reached 19.6 EFLOPS (FP16), exceeding annual construction targets [3][6]. IDC Sector - AIDC is identified as a new growth pole for the industry, with traditional IDC resources undergoing transformation due to the increasing demand for high-density computing [4][10]. - The report notes that the majority of existing data centers cannot meet intelligent computing demands, necessitating new constructions that align with power density and temperature control requirements [10][12]. - Companies like Runze Technology and Aofei Data are effectively leveraging their IDC capabilities to attract AI companies and enhance their service offerings [7][9]. Industrial Chain Extension - The report highlights the critical need for liquid cooling and DCI networks in the context of rising computing demands [4][15]. - The liquid cooling market is projected to experience significant growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 59% from 2023 to 2027, driven by the need for efficient cooling solutions in high-density computing environments [15][17]. - DCI networks are also expected to see increased demand as multiple data centers require efficient interconnectivity to form computing clusters [15][17]. Related Companies - Key players in the IDC segment include Baoxin Software, Aofei Data, Runze Technology, and Guanghuan New Network, while upstream players include Yingweike, Kehua Data, and Zhongtian Technology [5][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [4][5]. Core Insights - The company's revenue performance aligns with the mid-year forecast, achieving a revenue of 4.75 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 602 million yuan, up 1% year-on-year [4][5]. - The ODM (Original Design Manufacturer) business shows a recovery with over 30% growth in both home appliance exports and cross-border e-commerce. The core components business also grew by over 10%, with motor sales increasing by over 20% [4][5]. - The company is expanding its overseas manufacturing presence in Southeast Asia to mitigate trade risks, with ongoing investments in Thailand and Vietnam to enhance production capacity [4][5]. - The core components business continues to grow steadily, with a year-on-year increase of over 10% in H1 2024, supported by a robust order book from major automotive clients [4][5]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve total revenue of 10.31 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 17.2%. The net profit is expected to reach 1.22 billion yuan, a growth of 8.8% compared to the previous year [5][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 2.12 yuan, with a projected PE ratio of 10 times [5][7]. - The gross margin is forecasted to be 25.4% for 2024, with a return on equity (ROE) of 24.7% [5][7].