农林牧渔 2025 年 02 月 11 日 一号文"临近，对农业板块影响几何？ 看好 证券分析师 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 券 研 究 胡静航 (8621)23297818× hujh@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： 行 业 深 度 证 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 报 告 联系人 总结历年一号文的核心内容，我们发现了以下趋势：（1）粮食安全重要性日益凸 显。2020 年以来，"粮食安全"在中央一号文中提及的次数明显增加，2021 年至 2023 年均提及 4 次及以上。（2）生物育种成为农业科技创新重点。2021-2024 年， 有序推进→全面实施→扩面提速。2025 年中美贸易关系或再次发生变动，粮食安全主 题大概率再获得强化，农业科技创新、生物育种的重要性凸显。在经历了 3 年试点，1 年商业化推广后，转基因玉米种植效果良好，2025 年销售有望进一步"扩面提速"， 种业板块将迎来主题与基本面的双 ...

行 业 及 产 业 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 基础化工 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 周超 A0230123090004 zhouchao@swsresearch.com 联系人 周超 (8621)23297818× zhouchao@swsresearch.com 2025 年 02 月 11 日 DeepSeek 加速 AI 端侧落地，重 视材料端投资机会 看好 ——AI 端侧材料行业点评 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 - ⚫ DeepSeek 催化 AI 竞争从算力军备竞赛转向效率优化，低成本及开源属性加快 AI 走向 场景化，产业链从云端基础建设阶段进入 AI 应用和端侧 AI 快速阶段。2024 年底， DeepSeek 发布 V3 版本，同时宣布开源；2025 年 1 月 20 日，DeepSeek-R1 模型发 布，迅速霸榜全球全球下载排行榜，截至目前包括报读智能云、华 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has fully integrated the DeepSeek large model, aiming to reshape the intelligence of process industries through AI and industry know-how [8] - The company has a strong market presence, covering over 30,000 process enterprise customers and achieving a domestic market share of nearly 40% in DCS, over 55% in the chemical sector, and nearly 50% in the petrochemical sector [8] - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 1.256 billion, 1.512 billion, and 1.822 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 37X, 30X, and 25X [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 8,620 million yuan in 2023 to 13,586 million yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 16.4% [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 1,102 million yuan in 2023 to 1,822 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of about 20.5% [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 1.44 yuan in 2023 to 2.30 yuan in 2026 [7]

上 市 公 司 报告原因：首次覆盖 买入（首次评级） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 02 月 10 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 9.33 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 7946.81 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 9.58/1.08 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 355.03 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 3,805.28 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0863 | 公 计算机 2025 年 02 月 11 日 金山云 (03896) ——金山小米生态核心云厂，AI+智驾乘风而上 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -15% 985% 02/14 03/14 04/14 05/14 06/14 07/14 08/14 09/14 10/14 11/14 12/14 01/14 HSCEI 金山云 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 黄忠煌 A0230519110001 huangzh@swsresearch.com 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj ...

报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 02 月 10 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 16.46 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 17.49/12.36 | | 市净率 | 1.0 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 5.45 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 69,643 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,322.17/10,631.25 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | 2025 年 02 月 11 日 成都银行 (601838) ——业绩双位数释放，优质高股息重申买入 | 基础数据: | 2024 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 18.49 | | 资产负债率% | 93.69 | | 总股本/流通 A 股(百万) | 4,238/4,231 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 02-19 03-19 04-19 05-19 06-19 07-19 08-19 09-19 10-19 11-19 12-19 0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Suzhou Bank [2][7]. Core Insights - Suzhou Bank reported a revenue of 12.2 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.1 billion yuan, up 10.2% year-on-year. The asset quality is better than expected, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio decreasing to 0.83% and a provision coverage ratio increasing to 483% [5][7][8]. Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - The total operating income for 2024 is projected at 12.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.0%. The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 5.1 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 10.2% [6][10]. - The forecast for net profit growth from 2024 to 2026 is 10.2%, 8.4%, and 9.2% respectively [7][10]. - The bank's total loans are expected to reach approximately 333.4 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 13.6% [10]. Asset Quality and Capital Position - Suzhou Bank's NPL ratio is at 0.83%, with a provision coverage ratio of 483%, indicating strong asset quality and risk management [7][8]. - The bank's loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) is projected to be 79.95% in 2025, reflecting a stable capital position [10]. Market Comparison - As of February 10, 2025, Suzhou Bank's closing price is 7.60 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 30.2 billion yuan. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2024 is 6.02, and the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is 0.69 [2][12].

传统基建投资承压，建筑企业 24 年利润探底 看好 ——建筑装饰行业 2024 年报前瞻 证券分析师 及 产 业 建筑装饰 2025 年 02 月 11 日 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 唐猛 (8621)23297818× tangmeng@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： 1）增速在-10%以下的公司：中国中冶、中国铁建、四川路桥、鸿路钢构、东南 网架、德才股份； 2）增速在-10%-0%的公司：中国中铁、安徽建工； 3）增速在 0%~10%的公司：中国化学、中国交建、中国电建、上海建工、中工 国际、中钢国际、中材国际、北方国际； 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 | 证券简称 | 证券代码 | 收盘价（元/股） | | EPS（元/股） | | | 市盈率 PE | | | 归母净利润 ...

行 业 及 产 业 机械设备 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 深 度 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 王珂 A0230521120002 wangke@swsresearch.com 李蕾 A0230519080008 lilei@swsresearch.com 刘建伟 A0230521100003 liujw@swsresearch.com 胡书捷 A0230524070007 联系人 胡书捷 (8621)23297818× husj@swsresearch.com 2025 年 02 月 11 日 灵巧手：技术集大成者，边际增量 方向 看好 ——机器人系列报告之二十二 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 husj@swsresearch.com ⚫ 灵巧手是人形机器人标配部件，技术壁垒极高。人形机器人的价值在于适应人类所有环 境，而灵巧手是人形机器人的末端执行器，理想状态是能执行各种各样的任务，需要具 备负载能力、运动能力、控制能力和感知能力等等，在设计和生产方面均有极高难度。 ⚫ 灵巧手是机器人公司的重要发力点，特斯拉 Optimus 对灵巧手持续研发和升级。特斯 拉的第一代机器 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on major US cloud computing and internet giants, indicating a favorable investment rating for the sector [1]. Core Insights - The cloud computing industry is experiencing a temporary slowdown in growth due to capacity constraints, but the capital expenditure (Capex) for 2025 is expected to remain high, reflecting strong demand for AI computing power [2][9]. - Major players like Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and META are projected to significantly increase their Capex in 2025, with a total expected to reach approximately $340 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of around 35% [10][30]. - The report highlights the importance of AI applications and the return on investment (ROI) associated with them, suggesting that advancements in AI will drive further penetration into various user scenarios [15][23]. Summary by Sections Cloud Computing Performance - Google Cloud's revenue growth for FY24Q4 was 30.1%, which was below Bloomberg's expectations due to capacity constraints [2][3]. - Microsoft Azure's revenue growth guidance for FY25Q3 is projected at 31%-32%, indicating no significant improvement from the current quarter [2][3]. - Amazon AWS's growth remained stable, aligning with expectations, but faced a reduction in operating profit margin due to early server replacements [2][3]. Capital Expenditure (Capex) - The total Capex for Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and META in 2024 is estimated at $250.4 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 63.2% [9][10]. - Google has provided a more optimistic Capex guidance for FY25, expecting it to reach $75 billion, a growth of over 40% compared to FY24 [25][30]. - Amazon's FY24Q4 Capex was $27.8 billion, with expectations for FY25 to exceed $83 billion, reflecting a growth of over 30% [10][30]. AI Applications and ROI - The report emphasizes the declining cost of computing power for AI applications, which is expected to enhance the ROI of AI implementations [9][15]. - The optimization of AI large model algorithms is anticipated to accelerate the adoption of AI applications in internet and SaaS companies [15][23]. - The report notes that the integration of AI into traditional search functions, such as Google's AI Overview, is gradually increasing its penetration rate, although the speed is still limited by computing costs [23][26]. ASIC Chip Development - Major cloud providers are accelerating the development of ASIC chips, with a focus on optimizing for AI inference workloads [21][23]. - Google is set to launch its TPU v6 Trillium chip, designed specifically for AI inference, which is expected to lower the cost of internal AI workloads [21][23]. - Amazon is advancing its Rainier project to build a large-scale Tranium2 chip cluster for AI training and inference, which is expected to enhance AWS's performance [30].

行 业 及 产 业 国防军工 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 韩强 A0230518060003 hanqiang@swsresearch.com 武雨桐 A0230520090001 wuyt@swsresearch.com 穆少阳 A0230524070009 musy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 联系人 达邵炜 (8621)23297818× dasw@swsresearch.com ⚫ 近期市场风险偏好逐渐提升，且随着军工装备采购进入十四五计划最后收官年份，军工 订单近期开始逐渐落地，预期后续将进入 2025-2027 年机械化建设的订单冲刺和 2028-2030 年智能化建设的主题预期的双重逻辑驱动的上涨行情，所以即使军工出现短 期波动调整，但整体仍会延续上行趋势，所以我们建议加大军工关注度。 ⚫ 军工行业成长弹性巨大。随着建军百年目标临近，军工机械化+信息化建设将进入冲刺 阶段，提质增量仍是核心任务，尤其是叠加消耗等扩张需求，预计未来几年军工仍然保 持高速增长；同时随着 2028 年后军队 ...