Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Suzhou Bank [1][8]. Core Views - The significant increase in shareholding by the major shareholder, Guofa Group, from 9% to 14% through multiple rounds of purchases, enhances market confidence and indicates strong long-term investment value [4][6]. - The bank's current price-to-book (PB) ratio is approximately 0.66, with a dynamic dividend yield of 5.1%, suggesting an attractive valuation compared to peers [6][8]. - The bank's asset quality is robust, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio below 1% and a provision-to-loan ratio around 4%, positioning it favorably in the market [6][8]. Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue for Suzhou Bank is projected to grow from 11,762.96 million RMB in 2022 to 13,144.77 million RMB by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.4% [5][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 3,918.44 million RMB in 2022 to 5,990.06 million RMB in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 9.2% [5][9]. - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to remain stable, with slight fluctuations, maintaining a level around 11.7% to 11.8% from 2024 to 2026 [5][9]. Shareholder Activity - Guofa Group has committed to further increasing its stake by at least 300 million RMB over the next six months, which is expected to raise its ownership to over 15% [4][6]. - The recent share purchases by the major shareholder are seen as a strong endorsement of the bank's long-term growth potential and stability [6][8]. Market Position - Suzhou Bank's credit growth has outpaced its peers, with a 14% year-on-year increase in loans as of the third quarter of 2024, indicating strong demand and effective management [6][8]. - The bank's strategy focuses on leveraging local project resources and expanding into key regional markets, which is expected to support sustainable growth [6][8].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][8]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a high-end beauty brand, leading the trend of Eastern aesthetics. It has a strong personal IP and a well-established product matrix, focusing on both color cosmetics and skincare [2][6][23]. - The Chinese beauty market is experiencing rapid growth, particularly in the high-end segment where domestic brands are gaining traction. The company is expected to benefit from this trend, with significant revenue growth projected for the coming years [8][51][56]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company was founded in 2000 by renowned makeup artist Mao Geping and has grown into a leading high-end domestic beauty group. The founders hold a combined 47.9% stake in the company, ensuring stable governance and strategic continuity [6][27]. - The company reported a revenue of 2.89 billion yuan in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35% from 2021 to 2023 [34]. Market Potential - The overall Chinese beauty market is projected to grow significantly, with the market size expected to reach 876.3 billion yuan by 2028, driven by a CAGR of approximately 8.6% [51][54]. - The skincare segment is particularly strong, accounting for nearly 80% of the beauty market, while the color cosmetics market is also expanding rapidly [54][56]. Competitive Advantages - The company's core competitive edge lies in its unique combination of personal IP, product offerings, distribution channels, and marketing strategies that resonate with consumers [7][10]. - The product matrix includes a wide range of color cosmetics and skincare products, with star products like the "Light Sensation No-Trace Powder" and "Luxury Caviar Mask" driving sales [7][100][105]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 40.2 billion yuan, 52.7 billion yuan, and 64.2 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 39.36%, 31.08%, and 21.72% [8][145]. - The projected net profit for the same period is 9.3 billion yuan, 12.4 billion yuan, and 15.4 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 40.56%, 33.52%, and 23.80% [8][145]. Sales Channels - The company employs a multi-channel sales strategy, with a strong emphasis on direct sales. As of 2024, offline sales accounted for 46.1% of total revenue, while online sales reached 38.8% [112][116]. - The company has successfully expanded its presence in both offline and online markets, leveraging platforms like Douyin and Tmall to enhance brand visibility and sales [134][138]. Brand Strategy - The company aims to enhance its brand reputation through strategic brand management and product innovation, focusing on high-quality offerings that cater to the needs of Chinese consumers [139][140]. - The brand's marketing strategy includes engaging with consumers through social media and influencer partnerships, which have significantly increased brand awareness and consumer interaction [119][121].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [3][4]. Core Views - The company is expected to see significant growth in its revenue and net profit, with a projected net profit of 1.28 billion, 2.56 billion, and 4.61 billion for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 171.01%, 99.97%, and 80.03% [4][5]. - The company is benefiting from strong demand in the instant delivery sector, particularly in the tea and coffee markets, with a 51% year-on-year revenue growth in lower-tier markets and a 60% increase in tea delivery revenue [4][5]. - The expansion of the company's operational capacity and the increase in order density are expected to enhance profitability as scale effects are realized [4]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue (in million) is projected to grow from 12,400 in 2023 to 22,364 in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20.33% [2]. - Net profit is expected to turn positive in 2023 with 47 million, reaching 461 million by 2026, indicating a strong recovery trajectory [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.06 in 2023 to 0.50 in 2026 [2].

基础化工 2025 年 01 月 08 日 云天化 (600096) 上 市 公 司 ——Q4 业绩符合预期，磷矿价格高位震荡，尿素同环比 下行 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） 投资要点： 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2023 | 2024Q1-3 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 69,060 | 46,724 | 63,418 | 63,018 | 59,827 | | 同比增长率（%） | -8.3 | -12.3 | -8.2 | -0.6 | -5.1 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 4,522 | 4,424 | 5,321 | 5,815 | 6,123 | | 同比增长率（%） | -24.9 | 19.4 | 17.7 | 9.3 | 5.3 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 2.47 | 2.41 | 2.90 | 3.17 | 3.34 | | 毛利率（%） | 15.2 | 17.0 | 16.6 | 17.5 | 18.5 | | ROE（%） | ...

行 业 及 产 业 2025 年 01 月 08 日 微软 800 亿美元投建 AI 数据中 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 《算电协同：重视 AIDC 新周期内供电设 备增量机会！ —— 申万宏源通信周专题 （20241230-20250103） 》 2025/01/05 《云端共振：IDC 结构性反转，端侧 AI 爆 发在即——申万宏源通信周专题 （20241223-20241227）》 2024/12/28 《润泽科技（300442）深度：高度景气的 AIDC 成长先锋》 2024/12/13 证券分析师 李国盛 A0230521080003 ligs@swsresearch.com 刘菁菁 A0230522080003 liujj@swsresearch.com 联系人 陈力扬 (8621)23297818× chenly@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： ⚫ 事件：据微软副董事长兼总裁布拉德·史密斯官方博客，微软计划在 2025 财年投资 800 亿美元用于处理 AI 负载的数据中心建设，其中超过一半的资金将用于美国本土。此外， 史密斯还呼吁新一届美国政府避免对 ...

策 略 研 究 新股研究 2025 年 01 月 07 日 富岭股份：国内领先的塑料餐饮具制 造企业 ——注册制新股纵览 20250107 投资提示： 任奕璇 (8621)23297818× renyx2@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 ⚫ AHP 得分——剔除流动性溢价因素后，富岭股份 1.36 分，位于总分的 18.1%分位。富岭 股份于 2025 年 1 月 3 日招股，将在主板上市。剔除、考虑流动性溢价因素后，我们测算富 岭股份 AHP 得分分别为 1.36 分、1.49 分，分别位于非科创体系 AHP 模型总分的 18.1%、 31.6%分位，分别处于下游偏下、下游偏下水平。假设以 90%入围率计，中性预期情形下， 富岭股份网下 A、B 两类配售对象的配售比例分别是：0.0203%、0.0125%。 ⚫ 国内塑料餐饮具制造企业排名前列，深耕北美市场。富岭股份主营塑料餐饮具及生物降解材 料餐饮具。公司 20-22 年在全国塑料一次性餐饮具制造企业中名列前二，23 年是中国轻工 业塑料行业（塑料家居）十强企业。公司产品主要销往北美市场，其中，21-24H1 对 ...

行 业 及 产 业 交通运输 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 研究支持 张慧 A0230524100001 zhanghui@swsresearch.com 王晨鉴 A0230123030001 wangcj@swsresearch.com 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 王易 A0230123050001 wangyi@swsresearch.com 刘衣云 A0230524100007 liuyy@swsresearch.com 范晨轩 A0230123070006 fancx@swsresearch.com 联系人 范晨轩 (8621)23297818× fancx@swsresearch.com 2025 年 01 月 07 日 Q4 预期下修完毕，重视节后复工 行情 看好 ——交运行业 2024 年报业绩前瞻 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 | 板块 | 股票代码 | 公司简称 | 总市值 ( ...

行 业 及 产 业 有色金属/ 贵金属 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 联系人 马焰明 (8621)23297818× maym@swsresearch.com 2025 年 01 月 07 日 央行连续 2 个月增持黄金，板块估 值低位，建议积极关注 看好 ——近期贵金属板块点评 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 ⚫ 黄金本质为金融产品，具备收益性、安全性和流动性三重属性，2022 年前的十余年， 美元信用处于主导地位，安全和流动性属性稳定，收益性是黄金的核心定价逻辑，故 10 年期美债收益率与金价呈现明显的负相关关系。 ⚫ 2022 年下半年之后，黄金核心定价因素由收益性转向安全性。2022 年后在俄乌冲突的 催化下，美元储备信用弱化，全球信用格局开启重塑周期，黄金下游需求中央行购金占 比变化最大、增速最快，央行购金需求占比超过 20%，或反映美元储备信用的弱化，从 影响权重上看，安全性对应的本金风险远大于收益性对应的利率风 ...

上 市 公 司 社会服务 2025 年 01 月 07 日 新东方-S (09901) 联系人 黄哲 (8621)23297818× huangzhe@swsresearch.com 投资要点： —— 网点持续扩张，静待教育业务增长提速 报告原因：强调原有的投资评级 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 01 月 07 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 48.70 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 7049.71 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 77.05/41.80 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 828.87 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 1,701.99 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0816 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 黄哲 A0230513030001 huangzhe@swsresearch.com 我们预计新东方 25 财年第二季度（2QFY25，2024.9-2024.11）收入 9.93 亿美元，同比增长 14.2%，Non-GAAP 归母净利润 0.53 亿美元，同比小幅增长 4.7% ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company is expected to maintain double-digit revenue growth, with a slight adjustment in profit forecasts due to macroeconomic pressures. The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 3.584 billion, 3.888 billion, and 4.222 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.3%, 8.5%, and 8.6% [7] - The company has a clear and pragmatic target for 2025, focusing on mid-to-high-end market segments and expanding its presence outside its home province [7] - The company’s brands, including Guo Yuan and Jin Si Yuan, are well-positioned to benefit from the consumption upgrade trend in Jiangsu province, with a solid market foundation and room for further optimization [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 10,100 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 28.1%. For 2024, the revenue is expected to be 11,693 million, reflecting a growth rate of 15.8% [6] - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 3,136 million, with a growth rate of 25.3%. The forecast for 2024 is 3,584 million, with a growth rate of 14.3% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to be 2.86, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 15 [6] Market Performance - The company’s stock price closed at 43.38 yuan, with a market capitalization of 54,420 million yuan. The stock has a dividend yield of 2.31% [2] - The company’s stock price has fluctuated between a high of 61.05 yuan and a low of 35.35 yuan over the past year [2]