Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home appliance industry, indicating an "Overweight" rating, suggesting that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [2][8]. Core Insights - The 2025 consumption upgrade and replacement policy is set to enhance the home appliance market, with new subsidies for four additional product categories, including microwave ovens and dishwashers [2][3]. - The white goods sector is characterized by "low valuation, high dividends, and stable growth," with significant production adjustments anticipated in response to the old-for-new policy, leading to a bullish outlook for the white goods supply chain [2][3]. - Export orders remain robust, with expectations for substantial revenue and performance improvements for companies like Ousheng Electric and Dechang Shares, driven by large customer orders and recovering overseas demand [2][3]. Summary by Sections Policy Changes - The 2025 policy expands the scope of old-for-new subsidies to include eight existing categories and four new ones, with each consumer eligible for a subsidy of up to 2,000 yuan per item [2][3]. - The policy aims to optimize funding distribution based on regional demographics and economic factors, ensuring effective support for the home appliance sector [2][3]. Market Performance - As of December 19, 2024, the old-for-new program has facilitated the sale of 52.1 million units, generating approximately 239.09 billion yuan in sales, with over 90% of sales attributed to first-level energy efficiency products [2][3]. - Multiple provinces have confirmed the seamless continuation of the old-for-new policy into 2025, which is expected to sustain consumer demand for home appliances [2][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report identifies three main investment themes within the home appliance sector, focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential, such as Midea, Gree, Haier, and others in the major and small appliance segments [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Suzhou Bank [1][8]. Core Views - The significant increase in shareholding by the major shareholder, Guofa Group, from 9% to 14% through multiple rounds of purchases, enhances market confidence and indicates strong long-term investment value [4][6]. - The bank's current price-to-book (PB) ratio is approximately 0.66, with a dynamic dividend yield of 5.1%, suggesting an attractive valuation compared to peers [6][8]. - The bank's asset quality is robust, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio below 1% and a provision-to-loan ratio around 4%, positioning it favorably in the market [6][8]. Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue for Suzhou Bank is projected to grow from 11,762.96 million RMB in 2022 to 13,144.77 million RMB by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.4% [5][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 3,918.44 million RMB in 2022 to 5,990.06 million RMB in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 9.2% [5][9]. - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to remain stable, with slight fluctuations, maintaining a level around 11.7% to 11.8% from 2024 to 2026 [5][9]. Shareholder Activity - Guofa Group has committed to further increasing its stake by at least 300 million RMB over the next six months, which is expected to raise its ownership to over 15% [4][6]. - The recent share purchases by the major shareholder are seen as a strong endorsement of the bank's long-term growth potential and stability [6][8]. Market Position - Suzhou Bank's credit growth has outpaced its peers, with a 14% year-on-year increase in loans as of the third quarter of 2024, indicating strong demand and effective management [6][8]. - The bank's strategy focuses on leveraging local project resources and expanding into key regional markets, which is expected to support sustainable growth [6][8].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][8]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a high-end beauty brand, leading the trend of Eastern aesthetics. It has a strong personal IP and a well-established product matrix, focusing on both color cosmetics and skincare [2][6][23]. - The Chinese beauty market is experiencing rapid growth, particularly in the high-end segment where domestic brands are gaining traction. The company is expected to benefit from this trend, with significant revenue growth projected for the coming years [8][51][56]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company was founded in 2000 by renowned makeup artist Mao Geping and has grown into a leading high-end domestic beauty group. The founders hold a combined 47.9% stake in the company, ensuring stable governance and strategic continuity [6][27]. - The company reported a revenue of 2.89 billion yuan in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35% from 2021 to 2023 [34]. Market Potential - The overall Chinese beauty market is projected to grow significantly, with the market size expected to reach 876.3 billion yuan by 2028, driven by a CAGR of approximately 8.6% [51][54]. - The skincare segment is particularly strong, accounting for nearly 80% of the beauty market, while the color cosmetics market is also expanding rapidly [54][56]. Competitive Advantages - The company's core competitive edge lies in its unique combination of personal IP, product offerings, distribution channels, and marketing strategies that resonate with consumers [7][10]. - The product matrix includes a wide range of color cosmetics and skincare products, with star products like the "Light Sensation No-Trace Powder" and "Luxury Caviar Mask" driving sales [7][100][105]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 40.2 billion yuan, 52.7 billion yuan, and 64.2 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 39.36%, 31.08%, and 21.72% [8][145]. - The projected net profit for the same period is 9.3 billion yuan, 12.4 billion yuan, and 15.4 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 40.56%, 33.52%, and 23.80% [8][145]. Sales Channels - The company employs a multi-channel sales strategy, with a strong emphasis on direct sales. As of 2024, offline sales accounted for 46.1% of total revenue, while online sales reached 38.8% [112][116]. - The company has successfully expanded its presence in both offline and online markets, leveraging platforms like Douyin and Tmall to enhance brand visibility and sales [134][138]. Brand Strategy - The company aims to enhance its brand reputation through strategic brand management and product innovation, focusing on high-quality offerings that cater to the needs of Chinese consumers [139][140]. - The brand's marketing strategy includes engaging with consumers through social media and influencer partnerships, which have significantly increased brand awareness and consumer interaction [119][121].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [3][4]. Core Views - The company is expected to see significant growth in its revenue and net profit, with a projected net profit of 1.28 billion, 2.56 billion, and 4.61 billion for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 171.01%, 99.97%, and 80.03% [4][5]. - The company is benefiting from strong demand in the instant delivery sector, particularly in the tea and coffee markets, with a 51% year-on-year revenue growth in lower-tier markets and a 60% increase in tea delivery revenue [4][5]. - The expansion of the company's operational capacity and the increase in order density are expected to enhance profitability as scale effects are realized [4]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue (in million) is projected to grow from 12,400 in 2023 to 22,364 in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20.33% [2]. - Net profit is expected to turn positive in 2023 with 47 million, reaching 461 million by 2026, indicating a strong recovery trajectory [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.06 in 2023 to 0.50 in 2026 [2].

基础化工 2025 年 01 月 08 日 云天化 (600096) 上 市 公 司 ——Q4 业绩符合预期，磷矿价格高位震荡，尿素同环比 下行 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） 投资要点： 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2023 | 2024Q1-3 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 69,060 | 46,724 | 63,418 | 63,018 | 59,827 | | 同比增长率（%） | -8.3 | -12.3 | -8.2 | -0.6 | -5.1 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 4,522 | 4,424 | 5,321 | 5,815 | 6,123 | | 同比增长率（%） | -24.9 | 19.4 | 17.7 | 9.3 | 5.3 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 2.47 | 2.41 | 2.90 | 3.17 | 3.34 | | 毛利率（%） | 15.2 | 17.0 | 16.6 | 17.5 | 18.5 | | ROE（%） | ...

行 业 及 产 业 2025 年 01 月 08 日 微软 800 亿美元投建 AI 数据中 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 《算电协同：重视 AIDC 新周期内供电设 备增量机会！ —— 申万宏源通信周专题 （20241230-20250103） 》 2025/01/05 《云端共振：IDC 结构性反转，端侧 AI 爆 发在即——申万宏源通信周专题 （20241223-20241227）》 2024/12/28 《润泽科技（300442）深度：高度景气的 AIDC 成长先锋》 2024/12/13 证券分析师 李国盛 A0230521080003 ligs@swsresearch.com 刘菁菁 A0230522080003 liujj@swsresearch.com 联系人 陈力扬 (8621)23297818× chenly@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： ⚫ 事件：据微软副董事长兼总裁布拉德·史密斯官方博客，微软计划在 2025 财年投资 800 亿美元用于处理 AI 负载的数据中心建设，其中超过一半的资金将用于美国本土。此外， 史密斯还呼吁新一届美国政府避免对 ...

策 略 研 究 新股研究 2025 年 01 月 07 日 富岭股份：国内领先的塑料餐饮具制 造企业 ——注册制新股纵览 20250107 投资提示： 任奕璇 (8621)23297818× renyx2@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 ⚫ AHP 得分——剔除流动性溢价因素后，富岭股份 1.36 分，位于总分的 18.1%分位。富岭 股份于 2025 年 1 月 3 日招股，将在主板上市。剔除、考虑流动性溢价因素后，我们测算富 岭股份 AHP 得分分别为 1.36 分、1.49 分，分别位于非科创体系 AHP 模型总分的 18.1%、 31.6%分位，分别处于下游偏下、下游偏下水平。假设以 90%入围率计，中性预期情形下， 富岭股份网下 A、B 两类配售对象的配售比例分别是：0.0203%、0.0125%。 ⚫ 国内塑料餐饮具制造企业排名前列，深耕北美市场。富岭股份主营塑料餐饮具及生物降解材 料餐饮具。公司 20-22 年在全国塑料一次性餐饮具制造企业中名列前二，23 年是中国轻工 业塑料行业（塑料家居）十强企业。公司产品主要销往北美市场，其中，21-24H1 对 ...

行 业 及 产 业 交通运输 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 研究支持 张慧 A0230524100001 zhanghui@swsresearch.com 王晨鉴 A0230123030001 wangcj@swsresearch.com 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 王易 A0230123050001 wangyi@swsresearch.com 刘衣云 A0230524100007 liuyy@swsresearch.com 范晨轩 A0230123070006 fancx@swsresearch.com 联系人 范晨轩 (8621)23297818× fancx@swsresearch.com 2025 年 01 月 07 日 Q4 预期下修完毕，重视节后复工 行情 看好 ——交运行业 2024 年报业绩前瞻 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 | 板块 | 股票代码 | 公司简称 | 总市值 ( ...

行 业 及 产 业 有色金属/ 贵金属 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 联系人 马焰明 (8621)23297818× maym@swsresearch.com 2025 年 01 月 07 日 央行连续 2 个月增持黄金，板块估 值低位，建议积极关注 看好 ——近期贵金属板块点评 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 ⚫ 黄金本质为金融产品，具备收益性、安全性和流动性三重属性，2022 年前的十余年， 美元信用处于主导地位，安全和流动性属性稳定，收益性是黄金的核心定价逻辑，故 10 年期美债收益率与金价呈现明显的负相关关系。 ⚫ 2022 年下半年之后，黄金核心定价因素由收益性转向安全性。2022 年后在俄乌冲突的 催化下，美元储备信用弱化，全球信用格局开启重塑周期，黄金下游需求中央行购金占 比变化最大、增速最快，央行购金需求占比超过 20%，或反映美元储备信用的弱化，从 影响权重上看，安全性对应的本金风险远大于收益性对应的利率风 ...

上 市 公 司 社会服务 2025 年 01 月 07 日 新东方-S (09901) 联系人 黄哲 (8621)23297818× huangzhe@swsresearch.com 投资要点： —— 网点持续扩张，静待教育业务增长提速 报告原因：强调原有的投资评级 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 01 月 07 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 48.70 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 7049.71 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 77.05/41.80 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 828.87 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 1,701.99 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0816 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 黄哲 A0230513030001 huangzhe@swsresearch.com 我们预计新东方 25 财年第二季度（2QFY25，2024.9-2024.11）收入 9.93 亿美元，同比增长 14.2%，Non-GAAP 归母净利润 0.53 亿美元，同比小幅增长 4.7% ...