证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 10 25 年 月 日 费用率持续优化，盈利能力持续提升。公司 25Q3 实现毛利率 45.21%， 同比-0.60pct，我们预计主要与产品品类占比变化相关。25Q3 公司销售费 用/管理费用率同比分别-2.60/+0.13pct 至 15.26%/2.54%，销售费用率 下降我们判断主要与去年同期费用基数高以及投入产出效率提升相关，管 理费用率同比略微提升主要系公司管理人员薪酬、折旧与摊销、业务招待 费等支出增加所致；最终公司 25Q3 取得归母净利率 22.70%，同比+1.8 5pct。 投资建议：多品类势能强劲，积极拓展海外市场。功能饮料作为饮料板块 增长最快的子赛道，随着消费人群、场景持续拓圈，行业空间广阔，东鹏 有望凭借产品性价比、数字化方面优势持续强化龙头地位。在传统大单品 东鹏特饮的基础上，积极布局东鹏补水啦、果之茶等第二产品曲线，势头 强劲。此外，港股上市有助于公司积极拓展海外市场，有望带来新的市场 增量空间，基于此， 们预计公司 我 2025-2027 年归母净利润分别同比 +34.5%/+31.1.2%%/+至2144.8 ...

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 10 25 年 月 日 风险提示：上游原料价格大幅上涨，钢材需求不及预期，新业务发展存在不确定 性。 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 114,019 | 109,203 | 113,091 | 119,132 | 122,837 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 15.9 | -4.2 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 3.1 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 5,721 | 5,126 | 5,980 | 6,502 | 6,860 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | -19.5 | -10.4 | 16.7 | 8.7 | 5.5 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.13 | 1.02 | 1.18 | 1.29 | 1.36 | | 净资产收益率（%） | 14.8 | 12.5 | 13.6 | 13.8 | 13.5 | | P/E（倍） | 12.4 | 13.8 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company is experiencing demand pressure, but profitability is showing continuous improvement. The revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 is 2.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 16.7%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is 81 million yuan, down 42.7% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue reached 1.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 14.2%, but net profit increased by 48.8% year-on-year [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: The company's revenue from distribution channels for the first three quarters is 2.49 billion yuan, down 7.8% year-on-year, while strategic project revenue is 490 million yuan, down 44.1% year-on-year. The Q3 distribution revenue accounted for 85% of total revenue, an increase of 9.3 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - **Profit Margins**: The gross margin for the first three quarters is 27.1%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin is 3.2%, down 0.8 percentage points year-on-year. In Q3, the gross margin improved to 31.0%, up 2.0 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin rose to 8.7%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - **Cash Flow**: As of the end of September, the company's receivables totaled 590 million yuan, a decrease of 42.6% year-on-year. The net operating cash flow for Q3 is 270 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 96.2% [3]. Future Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to generate revenues of 3.98 billion yuan, 4.13 billion yuan, and 4.38 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 112 million yuan, 146 million yuan, and 189 million yuan for the same years, indicating a compound annual growth rate of 29.9% over three years [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with a 53.9% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, reaching 640 million yuan, and a 99.2% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, amounting to 80 million yuan [1] - The company is actively expanding its production capacity and has positioned itself strategically in the optical communication sector, which is expected to benefit from the growing demand for optical modules driven by AI computing [2][3] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 260 million yuan, representing a 74.5% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 29.34 million yuan, up 86.5% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for Q3 was 24.5%, slightly down by 3.4 percentage points from the previous quarter due to increased equipment purchases during the capacity expansion phase [1] - The company's prepayments increased by 111.2% compared to the beginning of 2025, indicating active business expansion and significant raw material procurement [1] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 130 million yuan, 250 million yuan, and 380 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 63, 33, and 22 times [3] - Revenue is expected to grow significantly, with estimates of 983 million yuan in 2025, 1.46 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.95 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 64.6%, 48.7%, and 33.3% respectively [4] Market Position and Strategy - The company has completed its product matrix layout in optical communication components and is entering a performance release phase, with plans for mass shipments of optical isolators in 2024 and WDM filters in 2025 [2] - The strategic positioning in the optical communication market is clear, with the company leveraging its expertise in coating technology to expand into this high-demand sector [2]

Company Overview - The report rates the company as "Buy" for the first time, indicating a positive outlook for investment [5] - The company, Aifenda, specializes in electric towel racks and has a stable shareholding structure, experienced management team, and strong financial performance [1][12] - Aifenda has shown steady revenue growth, with total operating income increasing by 7.53% year-on-year to 505 million yuan in the first half of 2025, and net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 35.53% to 60 million yuan in the same period [1][22] Industry Analysis - The electric towel rack market has significant growth potential, with low penetration rates and a fragmented competitive landscape [2][33] - The demand for heating and ventilation products remains strong, particularly in Europe and the US, driven by climate and urbanization factors [2][28] - The market for electric towel racks has seen an increase in penetration from 10.85% in 2012 to 13% in 2023, indicating room for further growth [2] Core Competitiveness - Aifenda's strengths include a comprehensive R&D system, deep collaboration with leading European clients, and significant advantages in intelligent manufacturing [3][12] - The company primarily focuses on export OEM, with 95% of sales expected to come from exports in 2024, and the UK being a key market, accounting for over 60% of revenue in 2022 [3][12] - Aifenda is enhancing its supply chain efficiency through increased capacity utilization and a strategic shift towards intelligent manufacturing [3][12] Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 147 million yuan, 172 million yuan, and 197 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 24.9%, 16.6%, and 14.7% [3][4] - Financial metrics indicate a stable growth trajectory, with operating income expected to rise from 830 million yuan in 2023 to 1.361 billion yuan in 2027 [4][22] - The company's net profit margin and return on equity are expected to remain robust, with net profit margins projected at 19.7% in 2023 and 14.5% in 2027 [11][22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.81 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 170 million yuan, a decrease of 19.5% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 680 million yuan, up 6.5% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders was 60 million yuan, down 14.8% year-on-year [1]. - The revenue growth is attributed to channel expansion and new product launches, particularly in the "Jingmen Baodu" and "Jingzhou Shuangshuang" product lines [1][2]. - The company is expected to see revenue growth rates of 3.2%, 12.5%, and 11.2% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reaching 2.49 billion, 2.80 billion, and 3.11 billion yuan [3][5]. Financial Performance Summary - The gross margin for Q3 2025 decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 28.9%, attributed to changes in channel structure and increased sales expenses [2]. - The net profit margin for Q3 2025 was 8.8%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, but showed a quarter-on-quarter improvement [2]. - The company’s net profit for 2025 is projected to be 249 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 14.6%, followed by a recovery in subsequent years with expected growth of 32.0% and 13.1% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [3][5].

Group 1: Macro Insights - The report highlights new goals and strategies from the Fourth Plenary Session, including a focus on enhancing national defense capabilities and international influence by 2035, and the establishment of a "strong aerospace nation" [4] - Key tasks have been prioritized, emphasizing the modernization of the industrial system, opening up to the outside world, and improving people's livelihoods, particularly in promoting high-quality development in real estate [4] - The report suggests that while short-term policies may intensify, the overall approach will lean towards gradual adjustments rather than immediate actions, with a focus on laying groundwork for the upcoming year [4] Group 2: Pharmaceutical Industry - The report on InnoCare Pharma (映恩生物-B) indicates that the company has rapidly advanced its clinical development through a self-built ADC platform, with HER2 ADC expected to file for listing in 2025 [5] - Revenue projections for InnoCare Pharma are set at 1.95 billion, 2.15 billion, and 2.90 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with growth rates of 0.5%, 10.3%, and 35.1% respectively, leading to a target market valuation of approximately 42.67 billion yuan [5] Group 3: Power Sector - The report notes a significant increase in electricity consumption in September, particularly in the secondary industry, which grew by 5.7%, driven by improved water conditions boosting hydropower generation [6] - The report recommends focusing on the thermal power sector, highlighting companies like Huaneng International and Huadian International as potential investment opportunities due to their strong performance and favorable market conditions [6] Group 4: Construction and Decoration - China National Materials (中材国际) has shown steady revenue growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with a strong overseas order intake and an attractive dividend yield [10] - The projected net profits for China National Materials are 3 billion, 3.3 billion, and 3.6 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting growth rates of 1.4%, 10.2%, and 9.2% respectively [10] Group 5: Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Guibao Pet (乖宝宠物) reported a revenue of 4.737 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 29.03%, while net profit reached 513 million yuan, up 9.05% [11] - The company is focusing on high-end brand strategies, with significant sales growth during the Double Eleven shopping festival, indicating a strong market position in the pet food sector [12] Group 6: Textile and Apparel - Tabo (滔搏) experienced a revenue decline of 5.8% in FY2026H1, but maintained a stable profit margin, with a focus on digital capabilities and operational efficiency [16] - Bosideng (波司登) is expected to achieve stable revenue and healthy profit growth as the winter season approaches, with projected net profits of 3.901 billion, 4.392 billion, and 4.951 billion yuan for FY2026-2028 [18] Group 7: Education Sector - Action Education (行动教育) reported a return to positive growth in Q3, driven by its "effectiveness + AI" strategy, with net profits projected to grow by 11.7%, 10.3%, and 10.3% for 2025-2027 [23] Group 8: Electronics - Shannon Semiconductor (香农芯创) reported a significant revenue increase of 59.9% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, with a strong outlook for Q4 driven by rising demand for enterprise-level SSDs and DRAM products [24][25] - Revenue forecasts for Shannon Semiconductor are set at 38.9 billion, 58 billion, and 79.7 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding net profits of 605 million, 1.204 billion, and 2.025 billion yuan [26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Bosideng (03998.HK) [6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve high-quality growth in the full fiscal year, driven by product innovation and a strong sales performance in the down jacket segment [3][4] - The company has successfully upgraded its product offerings and improved channel management, which is anticipated to enhance sales during the peak season [2][4] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - The sales season for down jackets has begun with recent temperature drops in North China, East China, and South China, leading to increased consumer demand for autumn and winter apparel [1] - The company has launched several innovative product lines, including high-end urban lines and outdoor jackets, which are expected to gain market recognition and drive revenue growth [1] Channel Management - The company has focused on refining its store operations, resulting in a net increase of 100 direct stores and 153 franchise stores by the end of FY2025, totaling 1,236 and 2,234 stores respectively [2] - Online sales are projected to account for over 30% of total sales in FY2025, indicating a significant growth channel for brand building and member marketing [2] Financial Projections - For FY2026, the company anticipates a revenue growth of approximately 10% and a net profit growth rate expected to exceed revenue growth [3] - The report estimates that the company's revenue for FY2026 will reach approximately 28.54 billion RMB, with a net profit of around 3.90 billion RMB [5] Operational Efficiency - The company maintains a low initial order ratio, with less than 40% of orders being first-time orders, allowing for flexible inventory management and quick replenishment [4] - The inventory turnover days increased by 3 days to 118 days, with a year-end inventory value rising by 24% to 39.5 billion RMB, indicating proactive inventory management [4] Investment Outlook - The report projects net profits for FY2026 to FY2028 at 3.90 billion, 4.39 billion, and 4.95 billion RMB respectively, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 13 times for FY2026 [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company has returned to positive growth in Q3 2025, driven by its "Effectiveness + AI" strategy, which is expected to accelerate the expansion of large clients [2][4]. - The company aims to enhance customer retention and acquisition, targeting a 90%+ repurchase rate and a 90% referral rate from large clients by 2025 [2]. - The financial outlook is optimistic, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 expected to grow by 11.7%, 10.3%, and 10.3% respectively [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 566 million yuan (YoY +0.52%) and a net profit of 215 million yuan (YoY +10.39%) [1]. - In Q3 2025 alone, revenue reached 222 million yuan (YoY +27.93%) and net profit was 83.4 million yuan (YoY +42.78%) [1]. - The overall gross margin for Q3 2025 was 80.16%, an increase of 4.78 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company’s cash receipts for Q1-Q3 2025 totaled 557 million yuan, with Q3 showing a significant recovery at 219 million yuan (YoY +53.31%) [3]. Strategic Initiatives Summary - The company is implementing a "System + AI" strategy to enhance operational efficiency and customer engagement [2]. - The "Production Factory Model" for curriculum development is being updated to meet industry demands, with a focus on continuous improvement [4]. - The company is expanding its channel network with over 30 branches across major cities, aiming to strengthen its market presence [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong investment opportunity based on its performance and growth prospects [4][6]. Core Insights - The company has announced a shareholder return plan for the next three years, with a minimum dividend payout ratio of 70% or a cash dividend of at least 400 million yuan, whichever is higher, showcasing its commitment to high dividends [1]. - The company is experiencing rapid revenue growth, with Q1 and Q2 2025 revenues of 48.2 billion yuan and 50.9 billion yuan, representing year-over-year increases of 41% and 20% respectively [2]. - The company has secured a significant overseas contract worth approximately 1.23 billion yuan, further validating its growth strategy in international markets [3]. Financial Performance - The projected average net profit for the company from 2025 to 2027 is estimated at 6.8 billion yuan, with year-over-year growth rates of 15%, 21%, and 22% respectively [4]. - The company's cash flow has improved significantly, with net inflows of 4.7 billion yuan, 7.7 billion yuan, and 4.2 billion yuan for the first halves of 2023, 2024, and 2025 [2]. - The company’s overseas revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 15.6 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 54.5%, indicating a growing contribution from international operations [3]. Valuation Metrics - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 0.30 yuan, 0.36 yuan, and 0.44 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 14, 11, and 9 times [4][5]. - The company’s total revenue is forecasted to grow from 16.5 billion yuan in 2023 to 26.5 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 14.8% [5].