- The report discusses the construction of the A-share prosperity index, which is based on the Nowcasting target of the year-on-year net profit of the Shanghai Composite Index's parent company. The index reflects the high-frequency prosperity trend of the A-share market. The current prosperity index is at 21.37, showing an increase of 15.95 compared to the end of 2023, indicating an upward cycle[30][33][34] - The A-share sentiment index is constructed by dividing the market into four quadrants based on the direction of changes in volatility and trading volume. Among these, the quadrant with rising volatility and declining trading volume shows significant negative returns, while the others show significant positive returns. The sentiment index includes bottom-warning and top-warning signals, with the current comprehensive signal being bullish[34][40][45] - The report applies the BARRA factor model to construct ten major style factors for the A-share market, including size (SIZE), beta (BETA), momentum (MOM), residual volatility (RESVOL), non-linear size (NLSIZE), valuation (BTOP), liquidity (LIQUIDITY), earnings yield (EARNINGS_YIELD), growth (GROWTH), and leverage (LVRG). Recent factor performance indicates that high-profitability stocks performed well, while leverage factors underperformed[60][61][62] - The pure factor returns for the past week show that industry factors such as non-ferrous metals, national defense, and telecommunications outperformed the market-cap-weighted portfolio, while banking and media factors experienced significant pullbacks. Among style factors, the earnings factor achieved high excess returns, while residual volatility showed significant negative excess returns[61][65][70] - The report evaluates the performance of enhanced index portfolios. The CSI 500 enhanced portfolio achieved a weekly return of 0.60%, underperforming the benchmark by 0.34%. Since 2020, the portfolio has generated an excess return of 49.21% relative to the CSI 500 index, with a maximum drawdown of -5.73%[48][50][52] - The CSI 300 enhanced portfolio achieved a weekly return of 1.40%, outperforming the benchmark by 0.12%. Since 2020, the portfolio has generated an excess return of 38.20% relative to the CSI 300 index, with a maximum drawdown of -5.86%[55][56][58]

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 12 05 年 月 日 量化点评报告 行业 ETF 配置模型 2025 年超额 16.4% 根据景气度-趋势-拥挤度框架，我们有"强趋势－低拥挤"和"高景气－ 强趋势"两套行业轮动方案。趋势拥挤模型本月推荐农业、传媒、建材、 轻工行业；景气趋势模型本月推荐非银、计算机、家电、煤炭等行业。相 较于上个月，模型明显由高切低，增配金融周期板块。 ① 行业主线模型：相对强弱指标。2024 年出现 RS>90 的行业有：煤炭、 电力及公用事业、家电、银行、石油石化、通信、有色金属、农林牧渔和 汽车。经过全年验证，这些行业确实阶段性地成为了市场的行情主线，上 半年主要是高股息、资源品和出海，下半年主要是 AI。截止到 2025 年 4 月底，共 17 个行业出现 RS>90 的信号，以 TMT 板块、银行、制造和部 分消费行业为主。今年 4 月底前几乎半数行业曾表现强势，行业主线判断 难度较大，四季度配置建议以均衡为主，目前与行业轮动模型选出行业基 本重合。 ② 行业轮动模型：景气度-趋势-拥挤度框架。12 月行业配置组合权重为： 传媒 16%、农林牧渔 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [5]. Core Insights - The commercial aerospace industry is approaching a critical point for closing the loop, with expectations for rapid growth. The core component of this industry is satellites, and the launch speed is primarily determined by launch costs. The key bottleneck lies in reusable rocket technology. A breakthrough in this technology will significantly accelerate the launch speed of low-orbit satellites in China. Coupled with the ongoing development of the AI industry, the construction of space computing power is becoming a trend, leading to a substantial opening of the commercial aerospace application market [1][9]. - The Chinese government has placed significant emphasis on the development of commercial aerospace, with supportive policies emerging frequently. The industry has been included in government work reports for two consecutive years, highlighting its importance as a new growth engine [12][14]. - The successful launch of the Zhuque-3 rocket marks a significant milestone in China's reusable rocket technology, which is expected to progress from stage 1 to stage 10. This development is crucial for the industry to reach a volume production critical point [16][15]. Summary by Sections Commercial Aerospace Industry Development - The commercial aerospace industry is nearing a critical point for closing the loop, with expectations for rapid growth driven by advancements in reusable rocket technology and the increasing demand for space computing power [1][9]. - The Chinese government has prioritized commercial aerospace in its development plans, with multiple supportive policies and initiatives aimed at fostering industry growth [12][13]. Reusable Rocket Technology - The Zhuque-3 rocket's successful launch demonstrates the potential for reusable rocket technology in China, with future goals to reduce launch costs to approximately 20,000 RMB per kilogram [16][15]. - The report draws parallels with SpaceX's Falcon 9, which has achieved significant cost reductions through reusable technology, suggesting that similar advancements in China could lead to a sustained decrease in launch costs [17][18]. Space Computing Power - The report highlights the increasing trend of deploying computing power in space, with companies like Starcloud leading initiatives to establish space-based data centers. This shift is expected to alleviate the growing demands on terrestrial data centers [19][20]. - The anticipated advancements in rocket technology and the establishment of space computing infrastructure are expected to create a robust ecosystem for commercial aerospace applications [30][31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies such as Shenzhou International and Huali Group, with specific price-to-earnings (PE) ratios projected for 2026 [9][38]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel industry is experiencing a weak recovery in the Chinese consumer market, while the U.S. and European markets show steady growth. The overall industry inventory is considered healthy, with expectations for upstream order growth driven by stable downstream replenishment [31][32]. - The report highlights the strong performance of direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly in China, where DTC revenue growth is driven by e-commerce [18][23]. - Key investment themes include a focus on high-quality stocks in apparel manufacturing, brand apparel with stable growth or reversal logic, and strong alpha candidates in the gold and jewelry sector [21][22][33]. Summary by Sections Weekly Topic - PVH Group reported a 2% year-over-year revenue increase for FY2025Q3, reaching $2.294 billion, with a notable decline in gross margin due to increased tariffs and a challenging promotional environment [1][14]. Regional Performance - Asia-Pacific: FY2025Q3 revenue decreased by 1% year-over-year, but DTC business showed low single-digit growth, particularly in China [18][23]. - EMEA: Revenue grew by 4% year-over-year, but DTC and wholesale businesses faced declines due to a weak consumer environment [23]. - Americas: Revenue increased by 2%, driven by adjustments in the women's product line, although direct sales faced challenges [23]. Investment Themes - **Apparel Manufacturing**: Recommendations include Shenzhou International (PE of 12x) and Huali Group (PE of 18x), with expectations for improved core customer orders in 2026 [21][31]. - **Brand Apparel**: Focus on companies like Tmall and Anta Sports, with PE ratios of 15x and 16x respectively, and a recommendation for Bosideng (PE of 14x) [21][32]. - **Gold and Jewelry**: Companies like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Hong Ki are highlighted for their strong product differentiation and brand strength, with PE ratios of 17x and 21x respectively [22][33]. Recent Reports - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining a long-term perspective in the apparel manufacturing sector, with expectations for revenue growth exceeding 10% CAGR from 2025 to 2026 for Shenzhou International [34][38].

证券研究报告 | 行业专题研究 gszqdatemark 2025 12 07 年 月 日 建筑装饰 明年预计有多少保险资金增配建筑板块？ 政策持续推动中长期资金入市，下调险企风险因子，二级市场有望持续迎 保险机构增量资金。今年初中央金融办、中国证监会等六部委联合印发《关 于推动中长期资金入市工作的实施方案》，提出力争大型国有保险公司从 2025 年起每年新增保费的 30%用于投资 A 股（对应每每年少少千亿新新增 长期资金）。本周金管局发布《关于调整保险公司相关业务风险因子的通 知》，应长期持仓的沪深 300 指数成分股、中证红利低波动 100 指数成分 股、科创板股票下调风险因子，同时降低出口信用与海外投资保险的保费 和准备金风险因子。长期持仓风险因子下调，一方面有助于减少险资投资 股票的资本消耗，腾出增持股票空间；另一方面有望提升险资长期持股意 愿，增强资本市场稳定性。2025 年 1-10 月我国实现保费收入 5.48 万新 元，同增 8.0%，2022 年以来我国保费收入持续增长。截少 2025Q3 末， 我国保险资金运用余额 37.5 万新元，同增 16.5%；其中投入少股票/基金 的资金分别为 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for selected stocks and sectors within the industry [4]. Core Insights - The white liquor sector is showing signs of recovery, with Shanxi Fenjiu focusing on national expansion, youth engagement, and internationalization strategies for 2026. The company is optimizing inventory and enhancing market capacity, which is expected to support growth [2]. - In the beverage sector, companies like Nongfu Spring are planning to strengthen their water and tea product lines while introducing new products. The beer segment is diversifying with new flavors to cater to changing consumer preferences [3]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in consumer staples, with companies like Three Squirrels expanding into a full-category strategy and Mengniu Dairy leading in deep processing innovations [7]. Summary by Sections White Liquor - Shanxi Fenjiu's 2026 marketing strategy focuses on nationalization, youth engagement, and precise consumer service. The company is targeting key markets and optimizing inventory to enhance growth potential [2]. - The white liquor industry is characterized by bottoming out in sales, clearing financial reports, and low expectations, suggesting a favorable environment for quality asset allocation [2]. Beer and Beverage - The beer sector is witnessing the launch of new products like Jin Xing Beer’s winter flavor, reflecting a shift in consumption patterns towards home and outdoor settings [3]. - Nongfu Spring's strategy for 2026 includes strengthening its core water products and expanding its tea offerings, indicating a focus on product diversification and market penetration [3]. Consumer Staples - Three Squirrels is advancing its full-category strategy with the opening of flagship stores, emphasizing community engagement and a wide range of products [7]. - Mengniu Dairy is enhancing its product line with deep processing innovations, which are expected to drive demand and improve the utilization of raw milk [7]. - The frozen food sector is recovering, with companies like Anjuke benefiting from new product launches and channel optimizations, indicating a positive market response [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [5] Core Insights - Recent "14th Five-Year Plan" proposals from various regions emphasize the need for "good housing" and a "market + guarantee" supply-side policy, aiming for high-quality urban renewal and improved housing supply for low-income families [1][10] - The real estate sector is under pressure, with a significant year-on-year decline in new home sales, indicating a challenging market environment [2][22] - The report suggests that the policy environment is expected to strengthen, with a focus on improving the competitive landscape, particularly benefiting leading state-owned enterprises and quality developers [3] Summary by Sections 1. "14th Five-Year Plan" Proposals - Multiple regions have released proposals highlighting the importance of quality housing and a balanced supply system, focusing on urban renewal and affordable housing for disadvantaged families [1][10] 2. Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index decreased by 2.2% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.43 percentage points, ranking 30th among 31 Shenwan primary industries [11] - A total of 30 stocks rose, while 82 stocks fell, indicating a challenging market sentiment [11] 3. New and Second-Hand Housing Transactions - New home sales in 30 cities totaled 176.6 million square meters this week, down 6.5% month-on-month and 47.7% year-on-year [2][22] - Second-hand home sales in 14 cities amounted to 190.7 million square meters, reflecting a 5.3% decrease from the previous week and a 40.8% decline year-on-year [33] 4. Credit Bond Issuance - This week, 9 credit bonds were issued by real estate companies, totaling 6.568 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.272 billion yuan from the previous week, with a net financing amount of -2.132 billion yuan [3][42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the computer industry [4]. Core Insights - The mobile interaction paradigm is transitioning from GUI to Agentic interaction, allowing users to express their intentions in natural language, which the mobile agent then executes [1][12]. - Two main technical routes for mobile agents are identified: API paradigm and GUI paradigm, each with distinct advantages and challenges [1][2][24]. - The rise of mobile agents signifies a reshuffling of mobile internet traffic among mobile manufacturers, large model manufacturers, and application developers, leading to complex interactions among these parties [3][26]. Summary by Sections Mobile Agent and Interaction Paradigm - The shift from GUI to Agentic interaction is driven by the increasing complexity of applications and the need for more efficient user interactions [1][12]. - Users can now communicate their needs through natural language, with mobile agents handling the execution of tasks across different applications [1][12]. API Paradigm Analysis - The API paradigm involves creating standardized semantic interfaces that require app developers to adapt and expose functionalities for agent use [16][18]. - Apple's App Intents framework exemplifies this approach, emphasizing privacy and structured integration [16][17]. GUI Paradigm Analysis - The GUI paradigm operates without developer cooperation, using visual models to simulate user actions on the screen [2][19]. - Recent advancements in multi-modal models, such as Google's Gemini 3 Pro, have significantly improved the ability to understand and interact with UI elements [19][21]. Comparison of API and GUI Agents - GUI agents offer higher generality, allowing them to operate across various applications without developer adaptation, while API agents excel in reliability, performance, and privacy [2][24]. - API agents can complete complex tasks in a single call, whereas GUI agents may require multiple steps, leading to higher computational costs and potential delays [24]. Evolution of Business Models - The emergence of mobile agents is reshaping the competitive landscape, with mobile manufacturers seeking to leverage traffic entry points and large model manufacturers aiming to create comprehensive applications [3][27][28]. - Application developers face a dual challenge of collaborating with mobile and model manufacturers while protecting their own interests [31]. Recommendations for Attention - Key players in the GUI agent space include ByteDance, Google, Alibaba, and ZTE, while Tencent, Alibaba, and Google are notable in the API agent domain [7][33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Viewpoints - Indonesia plans to impose a coal export tax starting in 2026 to increase national revenue, which has faced strong opposition from the coal mining association [2][8] - The report recommends companies with strong earnings elasticity such as Yancoal Energy, Jinkong Coal Industry, and focuses on Keda Automation in the smart mining sector [2] - Key companies to watch include major state-owned enterprises like China Coal Energy and China Shenhua, as well as turnaround candidates like China Qinfa [2] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Global energy prices have shown mixed trends, with Brent crude oil futures at $63.75 per barrel (+0.87%) and WTI at $60.08 per barrel (+2.61%) as of December 5, 2025 [1] - Coal prices have seen slight adjustments, with Newcastle coal at $109.5 per ton (-1.44%) and South African Richards Bay coal at $90.8 per ton (+5.13%) [1][36] Key Companies and Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - China Coal Energy: Buy with EPS estimates of 1.46, 1.21, 1.29, and 1.39 for 2024A to 2027E [7] - China Shenhua: Buy with EPS estimates of 2.95, 2.56, 2.71, and 2.86 for 2024A to 2027E [7] - Jinkong Coal Industry: Buy with EPS estimates of 1.68, 1.23, 1.47, and 1.62 for 2024A to 2027E [7] - Yancoal Energy: Buy with EPS estimates of 1.44, 0.99, 1.18, and 1.37 for 2024A to 2027E [7] - China Qinfa: Buy with EPS estimates of 0.20, 0.06, 0.27, and 0.47 for 2024A to 2027E [7] Market Trends - The coal industry is facing challenges due to the proposed export tax, which may impact its competitiveness in the global market [2][8] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring coal demand and pricing trends as the industry navigates these changes [2][36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the steel sector, including Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and New Steel [9]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a divergence in performance compared to non-ferrous metals, with non-ferrous metals benefiting more from manufacturing sectors like electrical machinery and telecommunications, while steel is more reliant on real estate and automotive industries [2]. - The average daily pig iron production has decreased, with a notable drop in steel output, particularly in rebar production [12][18]. - Total steel inventory has seen a significant reduction, with a week-on-week decline of 2.5% [24]. - Apparent consumption of steel has weakened, with rebar demand declining more than hot-rolled coil demand [40]. - Iron ore prices have strengthened, influenced by supply adjustments and market dynamics [50]. Summary by Sections Supply - Daily pig iron production has decreased by 23,000 tons to 2.323 million tons, with a significant drop in steel output [12][18]. - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces across 247 steel mills is at 87.1%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous week [18]. Inventory - Total steel inventory has decreased by 2.5% week-on-week, with social inventory down 2.9% and steel mill inventory down 1.6% [24][26]. Demand - Apparent consumption of the five major steel products is 8.642 million tons, down 2.7% week-on-week [51]. - Weekly average transaction volume for construction steel is 99,000 tons, reflecting a 5.3% decrease [41]. Raw Materials - The iron ore price index for 62% Fe is at $107.1 per ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1.0% [61]. - Australian iron ore shipments have decreased slightly, while Brazilian shipments have increased [61]. Prices and Profits - The comprehensive steel price index has increased by 0.6% week-on-week, indicating a slight improvement in the industry's profitability [75]. - The current cost of long-process rebar is 3,533 RMB per ton, with a loss of 233 RMB per ton [75][81].