Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the REITs sector [5] Core Insights - The REITs market is expected to benefit from a low interest rate environment in 2025, with three main investment strategies suggested: focusing on policy-driven projects, recognizing the value of weak-cycle assets, and monitoring the expansion of REITs alongside new issuances [4][5] - The C-REITs secondary market has shown a general pullback, with only the data center sector performing positively, while other sectors like transportation and consumer infrastructure have seen significant declines [12][4] REITs Index Performance - The CSI REITs total return index decreased by 0.85% this week, closing at 1031.5 points, while the CSI REITs index fell by 0.98% to 801.2 points [10][11] - Year-to-date, the CSI REITs total return index has increased by 6.57%, ranking fourth among major indices [2][10] Secondary Market Performance - As of December 5, the total market capitalization of listed REITs is approximately 217.37 billion yuan, with an average market cap of about 2.8 billion yuan per REIT [12] - This week, 17 REITs increased in value while 58 declined, with an average weekly decline of 0.86% [12] Trading Activity - The data center sector exhibited the highest trading activity, with an average daily turnover rate of 0.6% [3] - The average daily trading volume for listed REITs was 121.9 million shares, with a turnover rate of 0.4% [3] Valuation Performance - The internal rate of return (IRR) for listed REITs has shown significant differentiation, with the top three being China Communications Construction REIT (9.7%), Ping An Guangzhou Guanghe REIT (9.6%), and E Fund Guangkai Industrial Park REIT (8.8%) [3] - The price-to-net asset value (P/NAV) ratio for REITs ranges from 0.7 to 1.8, with the highest being 1.8 for Harvest Wumei Consumer REIT [3]

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the credit market will continue to exhibit a low valuation environment with a rate-driven trend, influenced by factors such as reduced supply and increased demand for credit assets [2][3][4] - The issuance of Sci-tech bonds and ETFs has been a highlight in the credit market, with a cumulative issuance of 1.99 trillion yuan by November 25, 2025, significantly surpassing the 1.22 trillion yuan issued in 2024 [2][3] - The report anticipates that the credit market will maintain a low valuation environment, with potential adjustments in long-term credit bonds due to redemption pressures from trading institutions [2][4] Group 2 - The report discusses the transformation year for local government financing platforms, with a focus on the orderly exit of high-level issuers and market-oriented transitions in 2026 [3][4] - It highlights that the net financing of the "two eternals" (二永) is expected to remain low, with a projected range of 200 billion to 400 billion yuan for 2026, reflecting ongoing asset scarcity [4][5] - The report notes that the issuance of local government bonds will not see a new round of overall expansion but will undergo structural reshaping, with a focus on higher-level issuers [3][4] Group 3 - The report indicates that the credit market has shown resilience amid market fluctuations, with credit spreads narrowing during recovery phases [2][3] - It emphasizes the need for credit asset management to seek breakthroughs in a low interest rate environment, including expanding investment directions and developing alternative investment products [6][2] - The analysis of default risks shows a significant decrease in the number of defaults in 2025, with only 8 companies defaulting compared to 19 in 2024, indicating improved credit conditions [20][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Overweight" for the electricity industry [3] Core Views - The introduction of the 2026 electricity trading scheme in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces aims to deepen market reforms, enhance price predictability, and encourage the consumption of renewable energy [14][6] - The "computing power and electricity synergy" strategy is being promoted at the national level to meet the growing electricity demand from the AI industry, with a focus on using clean energy [6][15] - The report recommends focusing on flexible thermal power resources, energy storage, and virtual power plants as investment opportunities [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37% to 3902.81 points, while the CSI 300 Index increased by 1.28% to 4584.54 points during the week [62] - The CITIC Power and Utilities Index reported a slight increase of 0.01% to 3114.45 points, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.26 percentage points [62] Key Developments - The 2026 electricity trading scheme in Zhejiang introduces a requirement that at least 70% of annual trading volume must be secured through long-term contracts, enhancing market stability [14] - In Jiangsu, the trading scheme allows for all renewable energy projects to enter the market, with a focus on signing long-term purchase agreements [14] - The report highlights a significant increase in computing power demand, with a 30% annual growth rate in total computing power scale in China [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests investing in thermal power companies such as Huaneng International, Guodian Power, and Datang Power, as well as in leading companies in flexible thermal power transformation [7] - It also recommends focusing on undervalued green energy companies, particularly in wind and solar power sectors, such as Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power [7] - For hydropower and nuclear power, companies like Yangtze Power and China Nuclear Power are highlighted as potential investments [7] Market Trends - The report notes that coal prices have decreased to 800 RMB per ton, which may positively impact thermal power generation costs [17] - The carbon market saw a price increase of 0.69% this week, with a closing price of 60.06 RMB per ton [57]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the environmental sector, including Huicheng Environmental, Gaoneng Environment, and Hongcheng Environment [6]. Core Insights - The environmental monitoring and air pollution control sectors are expected to benefit from new policies and regulations aimed at enhancing air quality management and performance evaluation [17][18]. - The report highlights the importance of the ecological environment department's new guidelines for air quality performance grading, which will create a favorable environment for companies involved in air pollution control and environmental monitoring [17]. - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the environmental sector due to low macroeconomic interest rates, recommending companies with strong cash flow and high dividend yields [2][29]. Summary by Sections Policy and Regulation - The ecological environment department has issued guidelines to strengthen air quality performance grading, establishing a four-tier evaluation system (A, B, C, D) to promote green and low-carbon transformation in key industries [10][17]. - The newly enacted Shanxi Province Environmental Protection Regulations aim to prevent and reduce pollution, which will positively impact the environmental monitoring sector [18]. Market Performance - The environmental sector has underperformed compared to the broader market, with a decline of 1.45% against a 0.37% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [32]. - Key stocks in the environmental sector showed varied performance, with China Tianying leading gains at 9.07% while Yishida faced a significant drop of 14.39% [32]. Key Companies - Huicheng Environmental is recognized for its strong growth potential, particularly in hazardous waste management and innovative recycling projects [31]. - Gaoneng Environment is positioned as a leading environmental system service provider, focusing on solid waste and hazardous waste resource utilization [31]. - Hongcheng Environment is noted for its consistent dividend payouts and robust growth in environmental services [31].

交通运输 快递行业增速红利消退，龙头企业有望迎来双击 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 12 07 年 月 日 周观点：看好快递两条投资主线。反内卷线：快递行业份额逐步向头部快 递集中，反内卷政策下恶性价格战得到有效遏制，头部快递份额、利润同 步提升，有望迎来双击。出海线：快递出海，天地广阔，海外电商 GMV 爆 发式增长，带动快递业务量迅猛增长，相关标的为极兔速递。 行情回顾：本周交通运输板块行业指数上涨 1.22%，跑赢上证指数 0.86 个百分点（上证指数上涨 0.37%）。从申万交通运输行业三级分类看，涨 幅前三名分别为公路货运、公交、航空运输板块，涨幅分别为 6.90%、 3.04%、2.31%；跌幅前三名分别为仓储物流、跨境物流、快递板块，对 应跌幅分别为-0.86%、-0.42%、-0.10%。 出行：继续看好航空板块中长期景气度。运力供给维持低增速、需求持续 恢复，供需缺口缩小叠加油价中枢下移及"反内卷"政策推进，静待票价 持续修复、航司盈利不断改善。持续跟踪需求修复情况，关注公商务出行 需求及国际航班恢复情况。 航运港口：油运，四季度运价维持高位，市场担心旺季结 ...

- The report discusses the construction of the A-share prosperity index, which is based on the Nowcasting target of the year-on-year net profit of the Shanghai Composite Index's parent company. The index reflects the high-frequency prosperity trend of the A-share market. The current prosperity index is at 21.37, showing an increase of 15.95 compared to the end of 2023, indicating an upward cycle[30][33][34] - The A-share sentiment index is constructed by dividing the market into four quadrants based on the direction of changes in volatility and trading volume. Among these, the quadrant with rising volatility and declining trading volume shows significant negative returns, while the others show significant positive returns. The sentiment index includes bottom-warning and top-warning signals, with the current comprehensive signal being bullish[34][40][45] - The report applies the BARRA factor model to construct ten major style factors for the A-share market, including size (SIZE), beta (BETA), momentum (MOM), residual volatility (RESVOL), non-linear size (NLSIZE), valuation (BTOP), liquidity (LIQUIDITY), earnings yield (EARNINGS_YIELD), growth (GROWTH), and leverage (LVRG). Recent factor performance indicates that high-profitability stocks performed well, while leverage factors underperformed[60][61][62] - The pure factor returns for the past week show that industry factors such as non-ferrous metals, national defense, and telecommunications outperformed the market-cap-weighted portfolio, while banking and media factors experienced significant pullbacks. Among style factors, the earnings factor achieved high excess returns, while residual volatility showed significant negative excess returns[61][65][70] - The report evaluates the performance of enhanced index portfolios. The CSI 500 enhanced portfolio achieved a weekly return of 0.60%, underperforming the benchmark by 0.34%. Since 2020, the portfolio has generated an excess return of 49.21% relative to the CSI 500 index, with a maximum drawdown of -5.73%[48][50][52] - The CSI 300 enhanced portfolio achieved a weekly return of 1.40%, outperforming the benchmark by 0.12%. Since 2020, the portfolio has generated an excess return of 38.20% relative to the CSI 300 index, with a maximum drawdown of -5.86%[55][56][58]

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 12 05 年 月 日 量化点评报告 行业 ETF 配置模型 2025 年超额 16.4% 根据景气度-趋势-拥挤度框架，我们有"强趋势－低拥挤"和"高景气－ 强趋势"两套行业轮动方案。趋势拥挤模型本月推荐农业、传媒、建材、 轻工行业；景气趋势模型本月推荐非银、计算机、家电、煤炭等行业。相 较于上个月，模型明显由高切低，增配金融周期板块。 ① 行业主线模型：相对强弱指标。2024 年出现 RS>90 的行业有：煤炭、 电力及公用事业、家电、银行、石油石化、通信、有色金属、农林牧渔和 汽车。经过全年验证，这些行业确实阶段性地成为了市场的行情主线，上 半年主要是高股息、资源品和出海，下半年主要是 AI。截止到 2025 年 4 月底，共 17 个行业出现 RS>90 的信号，以 TMT 板块、银行、制造和部 分消费行业为主。今年 4 月底前几乎半数行业曾表现强势，行业主线判断 难度较大，四季度配置建议以均衡为主，目前与行业轮动模型选出行业基 本重合。 ② 行业轮动模型：景气度-趋势-拥挤度框架。12 月行业配置组合权重为： 传媒 16%、农林牧渔 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [5]. Core Insights - The commercial aerospace industry is approaching a critical point for closing the loop, with expectations for rapid growth. The core component of this industry is satellites, and the launch speed is primarily determined by launch costs. The key bottleneck lies in reusable rocket technology. A breakthrough in this technology will significantly accelerate the launch speed of low-orbit satellites in China. Coupled with the ongoing development of the AI industry, the construction of space computing power is becoming a trend, leading to a substantial opening of the commercial aerospace application market [1][9]. - The Chinese government has placed significant emphasis on the development of commercial aerospace, with supportive policies emerging frequently. The industry has been included in government work reports for two consecutive years, highlighting its importance as a new growth engine [12][14]. - The successful launch of the Zhuque-3 rocket marks a significant milestone in China's reusable rocket technology, which is expected to progress from stage 1 to stage 10. This development is crucial for the industry to reach a volume production critical point [16][15]. Summary by Sections Commercial Aerospace Industry Development - The commercial aerospace industry is nearing a critical point for closing the loop, with expectations for rapid growth driven by advancements in reusable rocket technology and the increasing demand for space computing power [1][9]. - The Chinese government has prioritized commercial aerospace in its development plans, with multiple supportive policies and initiatives aimed at fostering industry growth [12][13]. Reusable Rocket Technology - The Zhuque-3 rocket's successful launch demonstrates the potential for reusable rocket technology in China, with future goals to reduce launch costs to approximately 20,000 RMB per kilogram [16][15]. - The report draws parallels with SpaceX's Falcon 9, which has achieved significant cost reductions through reusable technology, suggesting that similar advancements in China could lead to a sustained decrease in launch costs [17][18]. Space Computing Power - The report highlights the increasing trend of deploying computing power in space, with companies like Starcloud leading initiatives to establish space-based data centers. This shift is expected to alleviate the growing demands on terrestrial data centers [19][20]. - The anticipated advancements in rocket technology and the establishment of space computing infrastructure are expected to create a robust ecosystem for commercial aerospace applications [30][31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies such as Shenzhou International and Huali Group, with specific price-to-earnings (PE) ratios projected for 2026 [9][38]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel industry is experiencing a weak recovery in the Chinese consumer market, while the U.S. and European markets show steady growth. The overall industry inventory is considered healthy, with expectations for upstream order growth driven by stable downstream replenishment [31][32]. - The report highlights the strong performance of direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly in China, where DTC revenue growth is driven by e-commerce [18][23]. - Key investment themes include a focus on high-quality stocks in apparel manufacturing, brand apparel with stable growth or reversal logic, and strong alpha candidates in the gold and jewelry sector [21][22][33]. Summary by Sections Weekly Topic - PVH Group reported a 2% year-over-year revenue increase for FY2025Q3, reaching $2.294 billion, with a notable decline in gross margin due to increased tariffs and a challenging promotional environment [1][14]. Regional Performance - Asia-Pacific: FY2025Q3 revenue decreased by 1% year-over-year, but DTC business showed low single-digit growth, particularly in China [18][23]. - EMEA: Revenue grew by 4% year-over-year, but DTC and wholesale businesses faced declines due to a weak consumer environment [23]. - Americas: Revenue increased by 2%, driven by adjustments in the women's product line, although direct sales faced challenges [23]. Investment Themes - **Apparel Manufacturing**: Recommendations include Shenzhou International (PE of 12x) and Huali Group (PE of 18x), with expectations for improved core customer orders in 2026 [21][31]. - **Brand Apparel**: Focus on companies like Tmall and Anta Sports, with PE ratios of 15x and 16x respectively, and a recommendation for Bosideng (PE of 14x) [21][32]. - **Gold and Jewelry**: Companies like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Hong Ki are highlighted for their strong product differentiation and brand strength, with PE ratios of 17x and 21x respectively [22][33]. Recent Reports - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining a long-term perspective in the apparel manufacturing sector, with expectations for revenue growth exceeding 10% CAGR from 2025 to 2026 for Shenzhou International [34][38].

证券研究报告 | 行业专题研究 gszqdatemark 2025 12 07 年 月 日 建筑装饰 明年预计有多少保险资金增配建筑板块？ 政策持续推动中长期资金入市，下调险企风险因子，二级市场有望持续迎 保险机构增量资金。今年初中央金融办、中国证监会等六部委联合印发《关 于推动中长期资金入市工作的实施方案》，提出力争大型国有保险公司从 2025 年起每年新增保费的 30%用于投资 A 股（对应每每年少少千亿新新增 长期资金）。本周金管局发布《关于调整保险公司相关业务风险因子的通 知》，应长期持仓的沪深 300 指数成分股、中证红利低波动 100 指数成分 股、科创板股票下调风险因子，同时降低出口信用与海外投资保险的保费 和准备金风险因子。长期持仓风险因子下调，一方面有助于减少险资投资 股票的资本消耗，腾出增持股票空间；另一方面有望提升险资长期持股意 愿，增强资本市场稳定性。2025 年 1-10 月我国实现保费收入 5.48 万新 元，同增 8.0%，2022 年以来我国保费收入持续增长。截少 2025Q3 末， 我国保险资金运用余额 37.5 万新元，同增 16.5%；其中投入少股票/基金 的资金分别为 ...