证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 12 21 年 月 日 交通运输 关注元旦航旅出行预定数据与委内瑞拉油轮进展 周观点：航旅纵横大数据显示，截至 12 月 17 日，元旦假期国内、跨境航线 机票预订量同比分别增长 46%、18%；16 日，ICE 布油收 58.84 美元（盘中 最低 58.72 美元），为 5 月来首次。继续看好"扩内需"及"反内卷"下航空 板块中长期景气度，在油汇环境友好环境下航司盈利有望不断改善。基于周期 视角，在制裁趋严、OPEC+增产逐步反馈到出口的背景下，行业周期逻辑渐 明，可关注板块回调中的布局机会，重点关注招商轮船、中远海能 H/A。 行情回顾：本周交通运输板块行业指数上涨 2.04%，跑赢上证指数 2.01 个百 分点（上证指数上涨 0.03%）。从申万交通运输行业三级分类看，涨幅前三名 的板块分别为航空运输、跨境物流、公交，涨幅分别为 6.84%、3.10%、2.82%； 仅公路货运板块下跌，跌幅为-1.76%。 出行：航旅纵横大数据显示，截至 12 月 17 日，元旦假期国内、跨境航线机 票预订量同比分别增长 46%、18%。继续看好"扩内需 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 gszqdatemark 2025 12 21 年 月 日 通信 AI 走向太空：商业航天+太空算力 近期 Rocket Lab（RKLB）股价大幅上涨，我们认为，其背后反映的是资本市场对 商业航天成本曲线拐点的重新定价。在发射频次提升、单位运载成本持续下降的 背景下，围绕低轨与深空的应用场景正加速从"可行性验证"走向"工程化落地"。 我们认为：商业航天是决定太空算力能否成立的核心成本变量，太空算力是商业 航天释放价值弹性的关键应用场景。 一、为什么算力要"上天"：获取不受约束的能源 算力扩张的核心瓶颈正从芯片供给转向能源约束。超大规模 AIDC 建设带来的电力 需求呈指数级增长，未来单一训练集群功率需求或达数 GW 量级，超出现有电网 与发电体系的承载能力。美国部分核心数据中心区域电力接入排期长达数年，算 力建设节奏受到实质性限制。同时百万卡级集群下散热需求同步抬升，单位算力 用水成本提升，能源问题（电+水+土地）成为算力扩张的"硬约束"。 算力上天是能源获取路径的重构。晨昏轨道等特殊轨道可实现近乎全天候太阳能 获取，且不受土地、环保及电网接入限制，具备稳定可持续的能源供给力；同 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Add" rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The sports footwear and apparel sector shows strong operational resilience amid market fluctuations, with long-term growth potential [7] - Nike's FY2026Q2 results indicate a 1% year-on-year revenue increase to $12.4 billion, with a net profit decline of 32% to $800 million due to inventory issues in Greater China and increased tariffs in North America [1][14] - The report highlights a healthy inventory situation in North America and EMEA, while Greater China faces short-term sales pressure [2][17] Summary by Sections Nike FY2026Q2 Performance - Nike's North America revenue grew by 9% year-on-year, driven by wholesale growth of 24%, despite a 10% decline in direct sales [17] - EMEA revenue decreased by 1%, with direct sales down 3% and wholesale stable, but the market remains healthy [25] - Greater China revenue fell by 16%, with direct sales down 18% and wholesale down 15%, prompting inventory buybacks and financial write-downs [25][6] - APLA region revenue decreased by 4%, with mixed performance across countries [6] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Anta Sports and Li Ning, with respective 2026 PE ratios of 14 and 18 [26] - For apparel manufacturing, Shenzhou International is recommended with a 2026 PE of 11, and Huayi Group with a 2026 PE of 16 [26] - Brands like Bosideng and Hailan Home are highlighted for their stable growth potential [27] Market Trends - The textile and apparel sector outperformed the broader market, with a 1.77% increase compared to a 0.28% decline in the CSI 300 index [30] - The report notes a shift towards experience-based consumption and a growing demand for functional apparel, with an expected CAGR of 8.3% for functional clothing from 2023 to 2029 [37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the liquid cooling industry, including Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Yingweike, among others [10]. Core Insights - The liquid cooling industry is transitioning from a phase driven by expectations to one focused on performance realization, marked by the mass production of NVIDIA's GB300 and the upcoming Vera Rubin platform [1][19]. - The market is expected to see a significant shift as high-power cabinets (100kW+) become the norm, with major companies like AWS and Meta adopting liquid cooling solutions for their self-developed ASICs starting in 2026 [2][20]. - The competitive landscape is evolving from component-level competition to a focus on comprehensive system capabilities, emphasizing the importance of integrated thermal management systems [3][21]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on the computing power sector, particularly in optical communication and liquid cooling, highlighting companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Yingweike as key players [24][13]. Industry Trends - The liquid cooling industry is entering a second development phase characterized by confirmed orders and capacity realization, with a strong emphasis on system integration and operational capabilities [6][22]. - The competitive focus has shifted to complete thermal management systems, increasing customer reliance on solution providers [3][21]. Key Companies and Recommendations - Recommended companies include Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Yingweike, which are positioned to benefit from the industry's growth and the shift towards liquid cooling solutions [10][24]. - The report also highlights the importance of upstream and downstream partnerships within the liquid cooling supply chain, indicating a trend towards comprehensive solutions rather than standalone components [23][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4] Core Insights - The report emphasizes that there is significant potential for high-quality development in China's real estate sector, driven by both rigid and improvement housing demands. The urbanization rate for permanent residents is projected to reach 67% by 2024, while the registered population urbanization rate is below 50%, indicating ongoing housing demand [11][12] - A new model for real estate development is being proposed, focusing on controlling supply, revitalizing existing stock, and encouraging the transformation of real estate companies. This includes reforms in development, financing, and sales systems to facilitate a smooth transition from old to new models [12][4] - The report highlights that the real estate sector serves as an early economic indicator, suggesting that investing in real estate stocks is akin to investing in economic trends. The focus remains on first-tier and select second-tier cities, which are expected to perform better in terms of sales [4][12] Summary by Sections Central Economic Work Conference Insights - The central government outlines the need for high-quality development in real estate, addressing both rigid and improvement demands. The report notes that many urban residents are still unsatisfied with their housing conditions, indicating a strong potential for improvement demand [11][12] Market Review - The report notes that the Shenwan Real Estate Index decreased by 0.4% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.13 percentage points, ranking 24th among 31 Shenwan primary industries. A total of 71 stocks rose, while 40 fell [13][4] New and Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the latest week, 30 cities recorded new housing transaction areas of 208.7 million square meters, a 19.9% increase month-on-month but a 42.7% decrease year-on-year. First-tier cities accounted for 54.1 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 14.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 36.9% [24][26] - For second-hand housing, 14 sample cities saw a total transaction area of 200.4 million square meters, a 2.0% increase month-on-month but a 24.8% decrease year-on-year [30] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate-related stocks due to the anticipated policy support and the improving competitive landscape. Key stocks to watch include major developers and companies involved in property management and brokerage services [4][12]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights significant developments in the power equipment sector, particularly in renewable energy, including solar, wind, hydrogen, and energy storage technologies. It emphasizes the importance of price stability and supply chain dynamics in the solar industry, as well as the growth potential in offshore wind and hydrogen projects. The report also discusses the strategic initiatives of companies like Ningde Times in the electric vehicle sector, showcasing their innovative solutions for electric shipping [1][2][3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. New Energy Generation - **Solar Energy**: The price of polysilicon has been adjusted upwards, with the average transaction price for n-type polysilicon at 53,200 RMB per ton, remaining stable week-on-week. Most polysilicon companies have raised new order prices to above 65,000 RMB per ton, driven by expectations of improved demand by Q1 2026 [15][16]. - **Wind Power & Grid**: Oriental Cable has secured a 1.9 billion RMB order for underwater cables, enhancing its overseas market presence. The company’s total orders now exceed 20 billion RMB, with a significant portion attributed to underwater cables and high-voltage cables [2][17][20]. 2. Hydrogen & Energy Storage - **Hydrogen**: The world's largest green hydrogen and ammonia project has commenced operations, setting multiple records in hydrogen production capacity and technology. This project is expected to drive the commercialization of hydrogen energy in China [3][21]. - **Energy Storage**: The report notes a range of bidding prices for energy storage systems, with the average bid for W2 storage systems ranging from 0.4363 to 0.5331 RMB per Wh. The report suggests focusing on companies with high growth certainty in the large-scale storage sector [22][27][30]. 3. New Energy Vehicles - **Ningde Times**: The company has launched an integrated solution for electric shipping, addressing challenges such as high initial costs and complex operations. This includes partnerships with various companies to enhance the electric shipping ecosystem [4][31][32]. The cumulative delivery of electric ships by Ningde Times has reached nearly 900 units, covering various transport scenarios [32][33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the C-REITs sector [6] Core Insights - The C-REITs secondary market continues to show weakness, with the overall market experiencing a decline. The report highlights the ongoing challenges in the warehousing and logistics REIT segment [1][11] - The report suggests that the low interest rate environment in 2025 presents an opportunity for REIT market allocation, emphasizing three main investment strategies: focusing on policy themes, recognizing the value of weak-cycle assets, and monitoring the expansion of REITs alongside new issuances [3][11] Summary by Sections REITs Index Performance - The CSI REITs total return index fell by 2.85% this week, closing at 999.2 points. The CSI REITs closing index decreased by 3.06%, ending at 773.2 points. Other indices such as the CSI 300 and Hang Seng also experienced declines [1][9] - Year-to-date, the CSI REITs total return index has increased by 3.24%, while the closing index has decreased by 2.08% [2][9] C-REITs Secondary Market Performance - The secondary market for C-REITs has continued its downward trend, with a total market capitalization of approximately 212.36 billion yuan and an average market cap of about 2.7 billion yuan per REIT. Out of the listed REITs, only 2 saw an increase, while 76 experienced declines, averaging a weekly drop of 2.6% [2][11] - The performance of various REIT sectors this week includes declines in warehousing logistics (-1.62%), industrial parks (-1.92%), and transportation infrastructure (-4.65%) [11] REITs Valuation Performance - The internal rate of return (IRR) for listed REITs shows significant differentiation, with the top three being Ping An Guangzhou Guanghe REIT (10.9%), Huaxia China Communications Construction REIT (10.2%), and E Fund Guangkai Industrial Park REIT (9.2%) [3] - The price-to-net asset value (P/NAV) ratio for REITs ranges from 0.7 to 1.7, with the highest being Jiashi Wumei Consumption REIT at 1.7 and the lowest being Huaxia China Communications Construction REIT at 0.7 [3]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several construction companies, highlighting their potential for high returns based on expected dividend yields and low valuations [9][32]. Core Insights - The current policy environment is driving an increase in insurance capital allocation to the stock market, with a notable acceleration in Q3 this year. Insurance capital is favoring construction stocks with high ROE, high dividend yields, and low valuations, particularly focusing on companies like China Electric Power Construction, China State Construction, and Sichuan Road and Bridge [1][2][14]. - It is estimated that the construction sector will receive an additional allocation of 28.6 billion yuan by 2026, representing 3.5% of the free float market value. Key A-share stocks recommended include Sichuan Road and Bridge (6.3% yield), Jianghe Group (6.5%), and others, while H-share stocks include China State Construction International (7.2%) and China Communications Construction (6.0%) [1][8][32]. Summary by Sections Insurance Capital Trends - As of Q3 2025, the total balance of insurance capital in China reached 37.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%. The allocation to stocks and funds was 3.6 trillion and 2.0 trillion yuan, respectively, accounting for 15.5% of total investments, with a significant increase noted in Q3 [2][22]. - The top three construction stocks held by insurance capital are China Electric Power Construction, China State Construction, and Sichuan Road and Bridge, which together account for 75% of the insurance capital's construction sector holdings [2][22]. Expected Capital Allocation - The projected allocation of insurance capital to the construction sector is estimated at 50.8 billion yuan in 2025 and 79.4 billion yuan in 2026, with an incremental increase of 28.6 billion yuan in 2026 [3][28]. - The overall allocation ratio for the construction sector is expected to rise from 1.31% in 2025 to 1.60% in 2026, driven by the sector's attractive dividend yield compared to other sectors [3][28]. Recommended Stocks - Key A-share stocks with expected dividend yields over 5% include Sichuan Road and Bridge (6.3%), Jianghe Group (6.5%), and others. H-share stocks include China State Construction International (7.2%) and China Communications Construction (6.0%) [1][29][32]. - The report also highlights semiconductor cleanroom leaders such as Yaxiang Integration and Shenghui Integration, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing AI investment wave [1][8][32].

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2025 12 21 年 月 日 中国神华（601088.SH） 千亿资产收购方案落地，黑金航母扩容再启航 公司发布《发行股份及支付现金购买资产并募集配套资金暨关联交易报告书》 公告。中国神华拟通过发行 A 股股份及支付现金的方式购买国家能源集团持 有的国源电力 100%股权、新疆能源 100%股权、化工公司 100%股权、乌海 能源 100%股权、平庄煤业 100%股权、神延煤炭 41%股权、晋神能源 49% 股权、包头矿业 100%股权、航运公司 100%股权、煤炭运销公司 100%股权、 港口公司 100%股权，并以支付现金的方式购买西部能源持有的内蒙建投 100%股权。 ➢ 交易对价：最终交易价款 1335.98 亿元，其中现金对价 935.2 亿元， 发行股份对价 400.8 亿元，发行股份的价格为 29.4 元/股； 业务体量显著提升。通过本次交易， 中国神华煤炭保有资源量将提升至 684.9 亿吨，增长率达；煤炭可采储量将提升至 64.72% 345 亿吨，增长率达 97.71%； 煤炭产量将提升至 5.12 亿吨，增长率达 56.57%；发 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic research as a critical component of the investment system, suggesting that many past concerns about the Chinese economy were overblown, and a new narrative focusing on innovation and industrial manufacturing is emerging [1] - It highlights the cyclical nature of stock valuations, indicating that understanding undervaluation and overvaluation is essential for successful investment strategies [1] - The steel industry is currently positioned at an absolute undervaluation, presenting a significant opportunity for value investment, with expectations of recovery in capital returns as capacity utilization improves [4] Industry Trends - The report notes that the steel industry is entering a long-term decline phase following industrial maturity, characterized by stable demand and low capital returns, with a projected capacity utilization rate of 82% in 2026 [4] - It discusses the cyclical trajectory of the steel industry, indicating that the current low capital returns are conducive to supply adjustments and potential mergers within the industry [4] - The report anticipates that the marginal recovery in capacity utilization in 2026 will further enhance capital returns in the steel sector, contingent on effective policy implementation [4] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on companies that are likely to benefit from improving capital returns, such as Baosteel, Hesteel, Nanjing Steel, and Xinyu Steel, as they are expected to provide significant investment value despite having moved away from absolute undervaluation [4] - It emphasizes the need for a detailed approach to selecting specific stocks within the steel sector, as the overall market dynamics shift towards a more stable economic environment [4] - The report suggests that the investment strategy should adapt to the changing economic landscape, where excess capital in society will influence market trends and stock valuations [4]