Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an **Overweight** rating on the new energy vehicle (NEV) sector, particularly for the electric vehicle (EV) segment, driven by strong domestic and global EV adoption trends [2] Core Views - **Global EV Growth**: The report highlights the continued upward trend in global EV adoption, with China, Europe, and the US showing significant growth potential. China's EV penetration rate is expected to exceed 50% in 2025, while Europe and the US are projected to see 10% and 12% growth, respectively [2][11][23] - **Battery and Materials**: The battery sector is stabilizing as raw material price fluctuations converge, with lithium carbonate prices stabilizing in the 70,000-80,000 RMB range. Key materials like lithium iron phosphate (LFP) and ternary cathodes are expected to see improved profitability, driven by demand for high-voltage LFP and overseas EV demand recovery [2][47][55] - **New Technologies**: Solid-state batteries, composite current collectors, and sodium-ion batteries are identified as key emerging technologies with significant growth potential. Solid-state batteries are expected to see applications in EVs, consumer electronics, and energy storage, while sodium-ion batteries are projected to grow rapidly in the energy storage sector [2][102][132] Regional EV Market Analysis - **China**: China's EV market remains robust, with a 40% penetration rate in 2024 and expected to surpass 50% in 2025. Policy support, including subsidies and tax exemptions, continues to drive demand. Export growth is strong, particularly to Mexico, Brazil, and the UAE [2][11][29] - **Europe**: Stricter carbon emission standards in 2025 are expected to boost demand for mid-to-low-end EVs. Despite a slight decline in sales in 2024, the region is expected to see a recovery in demand, driven by regulatory changes [23][24] - **US**: The US EV market faces some policy uncertainty post-election, but long-term growth potential remains significant, with current EV penetration below 10%. Tariff adjustments and local production requirements are key factors to watch [25][27] Battery and Materials Sector - **Battery Prices**: Battery prices are stabilizing as lithium carbonate prices enter the 70,000-80,000 RMB range. The report expects further price declines to moderate, benefiting battery manufacturers [47] - **Cathode Materials**: LFP cathodes are expected to see improved profitability due to increased demand for high-voltage LFP, while ternary cathodes may benefit from overseas EV demand recovery [55][80] - **Anode Materials**: The anode sector is highly concentrated, with silicon-carbon anodes emerging as a key technology for future battery development [59][86] - **Electrolytes and Separators**: Electrolyte prices are expected to rise due to improved supply-demand dynamics for lithium hexafluorophosphate, while separator prices remain under pressure, with a focus on high-quality production capacity [64][93] Emerging Technologies - **Solid-State Batteries**: Solid-state batteries are expected to see significant adoption in EVs, consumer electronics, and energy storage due to their safety and energy density advantages. Companies like CATL and BYD are making progress in this area [102][106] - **Composite Current Collectors**: Composite current collectors are gaining traction, with companies like Baoming Technology and Yinglian Co. securing orders. The technology offers advantages in safety, cost, and energy density [108][131] - **Sodium-Ion Batteries**: Sodium-ion batteries are expected to complement lithium-ion batteries in energy storage and low-speed EVs, with CATL planning to launch its second-generation sodium-ion battery in 2025 [132][148] Investment Recommendations - **Battery Leaders**: The report recommends focusing on leading battery companies with strong performance, such as CATL, EVE Energy, and Ganfeng Lithium [113] - **Composite Current Collectors**: Companies involved in composite current collectors, including Yinglian Co. and Baoming Technology, are highlighted as promising investment opportunities [113] - **Solid-State Battery Materials**: The report suggests focusing on silicon-carbon anodes and conductive agents, with companies like Yuanli Co. and Zhongke Electric as key players [153]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tsingtao Brewery (600600 SH) with a target price of 78 23 CNY as of December 25 [4][17] Core Views - Tsingtao Brewery elected Mr Jiang Zongxiang as the new Chairman and President replacing Mr Huang Kexing who retired due to age [2] - The beer industry showed signs of recovery in Q4 2024 with China's beer production increasing by 1 7% YoY in October November compared to declines of 5 4% and 5 3% in Q2 and Q3 respectively [3] - The report expects the beer industry to achieve both volume and price increases in 2025 driven by policy catalysts and recovery in on premise channels like dining [3] - Tsingtao Brewery's beer sales declined by 7 0% YoY in the first three quarters of 2024 compared to the industry's 1 5% decline indicating pressure release [15] - The new leadership is expected to drive better volume and price performance than the industry in 2025 [15] - The company's dividend payout ratio was 64% in 2023 and is expected to increase steadily in the future [15] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to be 32 002 million CNY in 2024 a 5 7% YoY decline followed by 5 0% and 4 2% growth in 2025 and 2026 respectively [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at 4 443 million CNY in 2024 (+4 1% YoY) 4 907 million CNY in 2025 (+10 4% YoY) and 5 325 million CNY in 2026 (+8 5% YoY) [4][5] - EPS is expected to be 3 26 CNY in 2024 3 60 CNY in 2025 and 3 90 CNY in 2026 [5] - ROE is projected to remain stable at around 15 3% 15 9% and 16 3% from 2024 to 2026 [5] - The PE ratio is estimated at 24x 22x and 20x for 2024 2025 and 2026 respectively [4][5] Industry Outlook - The beer industry is expected to benefit from cost advantages in 2025 leading to improved profit performance [3] - Historically the beer sector has outperformed the food and beverage industry from March to June during 2020 2022 [3] - If the industry achieves volume and price recovery in 2025 it could lead to strong performance in the sector [3]

Industry Investment Rating - Overweight (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The building materials industry is expected to bottom out in 2025, with a focus on renovation materials as the main theme [2] - Historical performance shows that earnings are key, with the building materials sector outperforming the CSI 300 by 11.3% in 2016 during a real estate recovery [2] - The 2025 outlook suggests opportunities in both cyclical and consumer sectors, but flexibility is required [2] Historical Performance Analysis - The 2014-2015 bull market saw significant gains across major indices, with the building materials sector rising by 159.03% [15] - During the 2014-2015 period, the building materials sector followed the broader market, with no significant outperformance until the final months [41] - Earnings in the building materials sector began to recover in Q2 2016, with substantial growth in Q3 and Q4, leading to a 11.3% outperformance over the CSI 300 for the year [56] 2025 Outlook for Building Materials - 2025 is expected to be the bottoming year for renovation materials, driven by policies promoting stable real estate markets and increased demand for second-hand home renovations [2] - Second-hand home transactions in 30 key cities increased by 2.3% YoY in the first 11 months of 2024, indicating a recovery in demand [2] - Renovation demand from second-hand homes and existing properties is expected to account for over 60% of the market by 2026 [2] Sector-Specific Insights Cement - Cement price increases in 2024 were driven by industry self-regulation rather than demand, with 2025 focusing on supply-side adjustments and infrastructure projects [2] - Cement demand in 2024 remained weak, with a 31% YoY decline in shipments and a 12% decline in direct supply to large infrastructure projects [119] Glass - Glass demand is expected to decline by 8% in 2025, with prices likely to fall before stabilizing after cold repairs [2] - Glass production capacity decreased by 7.2% YoY in 2024, with 44 production lines undergoing cold repairs [80] Fiberglass - Fiberglass supply remained loose in 2024, but industry coordination improved profitability, with structural opportunities in wind power and electronics expected in 2025 [2] - Wind power-related fiberglass demand is expected to grow significantly in 2025, driven by a 93% YoY increase in wind power project tenders in 2024 [98] Consumer Building Materials - Consumer building materials are expected to bottom out in 2025, supported by renovation subsidies, stockpiling policies, and second-hand home transactions [2] - Companies with strong pricing power and a focus on second-hand home renovations, such as Beixin Building Materials and Weixing New Materials, are recommended [2] Key Companies and Financials - Beixin Building Materials (000786.SZ): Buy rating, with EPS expected to grow from 2.09 in 2023 to 2.59 in 2026 [7] - Weixing New Materials (002372.SZ): Overweight rating, with EPS expected to grow from 0.90 in 2023 to 0.82 in 2026 [7] - China Jushi (600176.SH): Buy rating, with EPS expected to grow from 0.76 in 2023 to 0.89 in 2026 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu (600809 SH) with a target price of 189 52 RMB as of December 24 2024 [11] - The current PE ratio is 19x for 2024 17x for 2025 and 15x for 2026 [2] Core Views - Shanxi Fenjiu is positioned as a leading light-flavor Baijiu company with strong brand heritage organizational efficiency and a well-structured product portfolio enabling it to navigate industry cycles effectively [2] - The company is expected to achieve steady growth in the future with sufficient growth tools and strong market regulation capabilities although growth may slow down it will not stall [2] - The company has set a tone of "steady development" for 2025 emphasizing stability over rapid expansion [3] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 36 664 million RMB in 2024 to 44 723 million RMB in 2026 with a CAGR of 10 9% [13] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 12 285 million RMB in 2024 to 15 414 million RMB in 2026 [13] - EPS is forecasted to rise from 10 07 RMB in 2024 to 12 63 RMB in 2026 [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to focus on four major product lines aiming to develop four 10-billion RMB products within 2-3 years including the Bolfen series Qinghua 20 series Laobaifen series and Qinghua 30 series [23] - In 2025 the company will prioritize stability with key growth drivers being the Laobaifen series Qinghua 20 and Qinghua 30+ products [23] Market Performance - As of October 2024 the company had already achieved its full-year sales target from the previous year with the number of distributors generating over 100 million RMB in sales increasing from 41 to 51 [3] - The company is actively pursuing national market expansion youth-oriented strategies and international development [3] Dividend Policy - The company announced a mid-term dividend of 3 billion RMB for 2024 equivalent to 2 46 RMB per share representing approximately 26% of the first three quarters' net profit [20] - The dividend payout ratio is expected to increase potentially reaching over 60% in the future [20] Financial Ratios - The ROE is projected to decline from 33 1% in 2024 to 26 0% in 2026 reflecting a gradual normalization of profitability [13] - The P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 18 8x in 2024 to 15 0x in 2026 indicating improving valuation metrics [13]

gszqdatemark 增持（维持） 通信 国内算力需求的黎明已经到来。AI 爆发两年以来，海外通过前期的算力积累和模 型建设，开启了 AI 的商业循环之路，这对于国内的互联网巨头来说，意味着大 规模部署 AI 业务的前提条件已经具备。今年以来，国内"豆包"、"可灵"等 优秀模型也开始商业化尝试，随着头部模型厂商开始走向放量与商业循环，我们 认为，对于中国互联网行业蛋糕的再一轮切分即将到来，而在本轮竞争之中，算 力的建设，尤其是自主可控的算力建设，将是一切的先决条件。 GPGPU 还是 ASIC-先解决能用的问题。近期，博通在业绩电话会上描述了未来 ASIC 芯片的宏伟蓝图，但对于国产算力来说，我们判断，"能用与易用"的 GPGPU 将是未来几年的主旋律。相较于 GPGPU，当下的 AIASIC 主流路线虽然 纸面效率较高，但是在编译器，生态软件上与国内客户需求的适配度较低。从当 下来看，随着国内以"豆包"为代表的大模型应用加速放量，各厂商需要的是能 够快速部署，抢占业务入口与用户的通用型算力，也就是 GPGPU。同时对于以 运营商，地方智算的建设者来说，通用算力代表着更好的用户接受度与投资回报 率。长期来 ...

2024 12 24 年 月 日 预计公司 2024-2026 年营业收入分别为 174.81/193.59/218.57 亿元，同比增速分别为 7.4%/10.7%/12.9%；2024-2026 年归母净利润为 20.07/23.18/26.93 亿元，同比增速分 别为 16.7%/15.5%/16.2%。 P.35 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 1）行业空间测算风险。公司所处行业市场空间测算基于行业增速假设，若宏观因素等 经济状况发生变化，将会对行业增速产生影响，可能造成行业空间测算产生偏差。 5）研发不及预期风险。若公司对自身强势产品以及其他扩充的产品品类研发进度不及 预期，将会给公司业绩增速造成影响，可能造成盈利预测产生偏差。 gszqdatemark 本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的资料、工具、意见、信息及推测只提供给客户作参考之用，不构成任何 投资、法律、会计或税务的最终操作建议，本公司不就报告中的内容对最终操作建议做出任何担保。本报告中所指的投资 及服务可能不适合个别客户，不构成客户私人咨询建议。投资者应当充分考虑自身特定状况，并完整理解和使用本报告内 容，不应视本报告为做出投资决策的 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | 现金流量表（百万元） 会计年度 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 经营活动现金流 | -12 | 273 | 236 | 401 | 337 | | 净利润 | -443 | -385 | 229 | 338 | 475 | | 折旧摊销 | 129 | 149 | 123 | 142 | 181 | | 财务费用 | 192 | 174 | 178 | 160 | 170 | | 投资损失 | -26 | -80 | -125 | -165 | -205 | | 营运资金变动 | -18 | 225 | -222 | -56 | -277 | | 其他经营现金流 | 153 | 189 | 54 | -19 | -8 | | 投资活动现金流 | -86 | -109 | -181 | -114 | -84 | | 资本支出 | 1 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 事件：公司于 12 月 23 日发布公告，公告称控股股东的一致行动人元素基 金拟将所持股份转让给新增一致行动人丰禾盈晖。我们认为，本次新增一 致行动人对于公司发展具有重大战略意义。 公司有望与新进战略股东形成协同，充分放大双方科技领域潜能。东阳光 是具备全产业链优势的氟化工、电容器材料龙头，更是市场上少有的可以 全面提供核心部件铝冷板、关键材料氟化冷却液以及冷板式和浸没式液冷 解决方案的头部企业。早在 2016 年时，公司就已提前对冷板式液冷和浸 没式液冷进行战略布局，申请多项专利并向市场推出多个牌号的电子氟化 液产品。同时，公司具有液冷核心材料铝冷板生产能力，掌握成熟液冷解 决方案，开发的功耗 1200W 芯片液冷散热案例可满足当前功耗最高的芯 片散热需求。基于双方优势，公司有望顺应人工智能浪潮，凭借产业链优 势、市场资源和技术储备快速抢占市场份额，充分挖掘与新进战略股东的 科技协同潜力。 投资建议：我们看好公司本次新增重大战略股东后液冷相关业务的发展前 景。向 2025 年展望，公司制冷剂产品价格连续提升、化成箔项目电费大 幅节约、积层箔项目后续成长动 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Western Materials with a "Buy" rating, citing its strong position in the rare metal materials industry and its potential for rapid growth in the military sector [7][150] Core Views - Western Materials is a leading rare metal materials platform in China, with a focus on titanium alloys and layered metal composites used in high-growth sectors such as next-generation fighter jets, missiles, naval equipment, and nuclear power [2][5] - The company is expected to benefit from the rapid expansion of downstream demand in military applications, particularly in missile, naval, and aviation equipment [2][6] - Western Materials has completed capacity expansion, with its military-grade titanium alloy production capacity doubling to 3,000 tons, positioning it to meet the growing demand in defense-related industries [6][100] Demand-Side Analysis - **Missiles**: Titanium alloys are widely used in missile casings to reduce weight and improve structural performance. After a period of suppressed demand, missile-related titanium alloy demand is expected to surge by 2025 [2][58] - **Naval Equipment**: Titanium alloys are ideal for naval applications due to their corrosion resistance and strength. The demand for titanium in naval equipment, particularly submarines and underwater vehicles, is expected to grow significantly [2][62] - **Aviation**: Titanium alloys are critical for military aircraft and engines, with usage ratios increasing as aircraft performance improves. The demand for titanium in aviation is expected to continue growing [2][64] - **Armored Vehicles**: Titanium alloys are increasingly used in armored vehicles for lightweighting and enhanced protection, presenting a significant market opportunity [2][97] Supply-Side Analysis - Western Materials has doubled its military-grade titanium alloy production capacity to 3,000 tons, with total titanium alloy capacity reaching 10,000 tons. This expansion is aimed at meeting the rapid growth in downstream demand [6][100] - The company has also initiated a project to produce large-scale, low-cost titanium alloys for marine engineering, which is expected to further enhance its production capabilities [100] Future Development Strategy - Western Materials follows a "1+3+X" development model, aiming to become a comprehensive rare metal materials platform. This includes focusing on titanium alloys, layered metal composites, rare and precious metals, and filtration materials [9][102] - Key subsidiaries include **Tianli Composite** (a leader in layered metal composites), **Xinorui** (the sole domestic supplier of nuclear-grade stainless steel and nickel-based alloys for nuclear reactor control rods), and **Feierte** (a pioneer in metal fiber products) [9][104][108] Financial Projections - The report forecasts Western Materials' net profit attributable to shareholders to reach 184 million, 409 million, and 606 million yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 48X, 22X, and 15X [7][150] - The company's titanium products are expected to see revenue growth of -2.40%, 51.00%, and 29.51% in 2024-2026, with gross margins of 23.01%, 26.27%, and 27.98%, respectively [111] Industry Comparison - Western Materials is compared with peers such as Western Superconductor, Baoti, and Gaona Aero Material. The company's valuation is considered reasonable, with a PE ratio of 48X for 2024, higher than peers but justified by its growth potential [142][150]

掘金优质资产，把握稀缺性+ 质价比主线 ◆ 4.投资建议：掘金优质资产，把握稀缺性+质价比主线 资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究所 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|------------------------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|---------------------|----------| | 2013 年 | 2014年 | 2015 年 | 2016年 | 2017 年 | 2018年 | 天猫 TOP10 \n2019 年 | 2020年 | | 2021 年 | 2022年 | 2023 年 | 2024年 | 2022 年 | 抖音 TOP10 \n2023年 | ...