Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is positioned as a global leader in AI PCB, benefiting significantly from the increasing demand for GPU and ASIC technologies [1][12] - The trend towards high-density interconnect (HDI) technology is expected to drive the company's growth, with plans for expanding production capacity and developing advanced HDI products [2][3] - The company's financial performance is projected to grow substantially, with expected revenues of 20.12 billion yuan in 2025, 28.20 billion yuan in 2026, and 34.57 billion yuan in 2027, alongside significant increases in net profit [3][4] Summary by Sections Section 1: AI PCB Demand - The demand for AI-related PCBs is driven by significant capital expenditures from major cloud service providers (CSPs), with a combined capital expenditure of 71.1 billion USD in Q1 2025, a 64% year-on-year increase [1][12] - Major CSPs like Meta and Amazon are expected to continue increasing their investments in AI infrastructure, with projected capital expenditures of 640-720 billion USD and 1000 billion USD respectively for 2025 [12][16] Section 2: HDI Technology - The report highlights the importance of HDI technology in PCB manufacturing, with the company expanding its production capabilities for 5-layer, 6-layer, and upcoming 10-layer HDI products [2] - The global demand for AI HDI is currently limited, providing the company with a competitive edge as it ramps up production and secures key customer partnerships [2][3] Section 3: Multi-layer PCB Development - The company has achieved mass production capabilities for 32-layer high multi-layer PCBs and is working on 70-layer precision multi-layer boards, which are expected to see significant price increases due to manufacturing complexities [3] - The company is also expanding its production capacity in Thailand, targeting an annual output of 1.5 million square meters of multi-layer boards, with a focus on boards with 14 layers or more [3] Section 4: Financial Projections - The company is expected to see a substantial increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with projected revenues of 20.12 billion yuan in 2025, 28.20 billion yuan in 2026, and 34.57 billion yuan in 2027, alongside net profits of 5.61 billion yuan, 8.50 billion yuan, and 10.61 billion yuan respectively [4][3] - The report anticipates a significant improvement in the company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, dropping from 129.5 in 2023 to 15.5 in 2025, indicating strong growth potential [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [8] Core Insights - The report highlights that the pharmaceutical sector, particularly the innovative drug segment, is experiencing a significant bull market, with the innovation drug index outperforming other indices [2][13] - The report emphasizes the strong liquidity in the market, which has led to increased investment in innovative drugs, particularly those related to PD1 and weight loss drugs [2][15] - Future outlook remains optimistic for 2025, focusing on innovative drugs, new technologies, and restructuring of the supply chain [3][16] Summary by Sections 1. Pharmaceutical Core Insights - The pharmaceutical index increased by 1.40% during the week of June 9-13, outperforming both the ChiNext and CSI 300 indices [13] - The innovative drug index rose by 3.07%, indicating strong market performance [50] 2. MNC Cash and Potential Layouts - MNCs have substantial cash reserves, with major companies like Johnson & Johnson and Merck holding over $10 billion in cash, indicating strong purchasing power for potential business development (BD) opportunities [27][25] - The report analyzes MNC revenue sources, highlighting a focus on oncology, metabolism, and mental health, which are areas of high market potential [25][27] 3. Investment Strategies and Thoughts 3.1 Broad Pharmaceuticals - Innovative drugs are a key focus, with a recommendation to explore opportunities in core stocks and those with BD expectations [3][16] - The report identifies specific companies for investment, including major players in the innovative drug space and smaller market cap stocks with promising pipelines [17][18] 3.2 Generic Drugs - The generic drug sector showed a weekly increase of 5.24%, outperforming the broader pharmaceutical index [59] - Top-performing stocks in the generic sector include Yiming Pharmaceutical and Sai Sheng Pharmaceutical, indicating strong market activity [62] 4. Market Review and Hotspot Tracking - The report notes that innovative drugs are becoming the most attractive sector, with significant price increases observed in several companies due to market catalysts [2][15] - Key events, such as the NMPA's inclusion of a new treatment for cardiovascular disease, are highlighted as important developments in the sector [57]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue decline of 17.5% year-on-year to HKD 89.656 billion for FY2025, while operating profit increased by 9.8% to HKD 14.746 billion, indicating a significant improvement in profit margins [1][6] - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure and enhancing its retail network, which is expected to support revenue growth of approximately 4% in FY2026 [2][6] - The sales of priced gold jewelry and products saw a remarkable increase of 105.5%, contributing to the improvement in profit margins [6] Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - FY2025 revenue from mainland China decreased by 16.9% to HKD 74.556 billion, with retail and wholesale channels declining by 16% and 17.5% respectively [1] - Revenue from Hong Kong, Macau, and other regions fell by 20.6% to HKD 15.1 billion, impacted by macroeconomic fluctuations and changes in consumer preferences [2] Profitability - The operating profit margin improved by 4 percentage points to 16.4% in FY2025, despite a decline in net profit attributable to shareholders by 9% to HKD 5.916 billion [1][6] - The company plans to maintain a high dividend payout ratio of approximately 87.8% for FY2025, with a proposed final dividend of HKD 0.32 per share [1] Market Strategy - The company is strategically expanding into Southeast Asia and beyond, with a notable 91% year-on-year growth in online sales in Hong Kong and Macau [2] - The company is expected to continue a cautious approach to store operations, with a focus on high-quality new store openings while reducing the number of underperforming stores [6] Financial Forecast - The forecast for FY2026 includes an expected net profit of HKD 7.546 billion, representing a 27.6% year-on-year increase, with a projected P/E ratio of 16 times [6][10]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The core conclusion of the report indicates that the US May CPI and core CPI were both below expectations, suggesting that overall inflationary pressure remains moderate. Following the data release, the market slightly adjusted its expectations for Fed rate cuts, anticipating two cuts within the year, with the first expected in September. It is noted that tariffs have not yet fully manifested their impact on inflation, and risks of inflationary pressure still exist in the US [3]. Group 2: Fixed Income Strategy - The report emphasizes a "barbell strategy" in fixed income investments, focusing on both technology and domestic demand defensive themes. The previous period's barbell strategy yielded a return of 15.98% for selected convertible bonds, with all holdings generating positive returns. The report suggests maintaining high-rated large base bonds while increasing holdings in mid-to-low priced convertible bonds and quality targets in popular themes [4]. Group 3: Construction Materials Industry - The construction materials sector is currently in a bottoming process, with cement companies experiencing a 16.99% decline in revenue and a 19.99% drop in net profit in 2024. The industry is relying on staggered production halts to stabilize prices, which often leads to increased average losses before prices recover. The glass industry also faced significant declines, with revenues down 11.1% and net profits down 88.6% in 2024. However, there are signs of potential recovery in 2025, particularly in the glass fiber sector, which has shown improved profitability in recent quarters [5][6][7]. Group 4: Electronics Sector - The report on Zhaoyi Innovation (603986.SH) highlights its diversified layout in storage, MCU, and sensor fields, with storage revenue expected to exceed 70% in 2024. The company is positioned as the second-largest player in the global NOR Flash market and is anticipated to see significant growth in its DRAM business. Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 9.36 billion, 11.46 billion, and 13.55 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.46 billion, 1.94 billion, and 2.38 billion yuan [8].

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 2025年06月12日 宏观点评 关税为何没有推升美国通胀? -- 美国 5月 CPI点评 事件: 北京时间 6月 11 日 20:30,美国公布 2025年5月 CPI。 核心结论:美国5月CPI和核心CPI 均低于预期,整体通胀压力依然较为 温和。数据公布后,美联储降息预期小幅上调,目前市场依然预期美联储 年内降息2次,首次在9月。往后看,关税对通胀并非没有影响、而是尚 未充分显现,美国通胀上行风险依然存在。未来两个月重点关注贸易谈判 进展、特朗普"大美丽法案"进展、美联储6/19 议息会议的表态。 1、美国5月 CPI和核心 CPI 双双低于预期,关税影响尚不显著。 >整体表现:美国 2025年5月未季调 CPI 同比 2.4%,低于预期值 2.5%, 高于前值 2.3%;核心 CPI 同比 2.8%,低于预期值 2.9%,持平前值,为 四年来最低。李调后 CPI 环比 0.1%,低于预期值、前值和 12个月均值 0.2%;核心 CPI 环比 0.1%,低于预期值 0.3%和前值、12个月均值 0.2%。 | 分析师 | 熊园 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 06 12 年 月 日 宏观点评 关税为何没有推升美国通胀？——美国 5 月 CPI 点评 事件：北京时间 6 月 11 日 20:30，美国公布 2025 年 5 月 CPI。 核心结论：美国 5 月 CPI 和核心 CPI 均低于预期，整体通胀压力依然较为 温和。数据公布后，美联储降息预期小幅上调，目前市场依然预期美联储 年内降息 2 次，首次在 9 月。往后看，关税对通胀并非没有影响、而是尚 未充分显现，美国通胀上行风险依然存在。未来两个月重点关注贸易谈判 进展、特朗普"大美丽法案"进展、美联储 6/19 议息会议的表态。 1、美国 5 月 CPI 和核心 CPI 双双低于预期，关税影响尚不显著。 >整体表现：美国 2025 年 5 月未季调 CPI 同比 2.4%，低于预期值 2.5%， 高于前值 2.3%；核心 CPI 同比 2.8%，低于预期值 2.9%，持平前值，为 四年来最低。季调后 CPI 环比 0.1%，低于预期值、前值和 12 个月均值 0.2%；核心 CPI 环比 0.1%，低于预期值 0.3%和前值、12 个月均值 0. ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5]. Core Insights - The company, Zhaoyi Innovation, is positioned as a leader in the semiconductor industry with a diversified product portfolio covering storage, MCU, and sensors. It is expected to benefit significantly from the AI and domestic substitution trends [12][19]. - In 2024, the company's storage revenue is projected to account for over 70% of total revenue, with a notable increase in product shipments and revenue growth across various sectors [12][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Zhaoyi Innovation operates under a Fabless model, focusing on integrated circuit design and outsourcing manufacturing processes [19][20]. - The company has a rich development history, having launched China's first SPI NOR Flash chip in 2008 and becoming a key player in the MCU market [20][22]. 2. Storage Market Dynamics - The semiconductor storage market is expected to reach a record high in 2024, with Zhaoyi Innovation's storage products, including NOR Flash and SLC NAND, showing strong growth potential [2][12]. - The company holds the second-largest market share in the global NOR Flash sector at 23%, benefiting from the increasing demand driven by AI applications [2][12]. 3. Financial Performance - In 2024, Zhaoyi Innovation achieved a revenue of 73.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.69%, with net profit rising to 11.03 billion yuan, reflecting a significant recovery from previous lows [30]. - The company anticipates continued revenue growth, projecting revenues of 93.6 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 27.3% [12][30]. 4. Product Segmentation - The company's product matrix includes storage solutions (NOR Flash, SLC NAND, DRAM), microcontrollers (MCU), and sensors, with a focus on high-performance and customized solutions for various applications [10][12]. - Zhaoyi Innovation is recognized as the leading domestic supplier of 32-bit Arm® MCU products, with a strong presence in the automotive sector [10][12]. 5. Market Trends and Future Outlook - The report highlights the optimization of the niche storage landscape, with increasing customization demands driven by edge AI applications [2][12]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing market for AI-driven applications, with ongoing developments in customized storage solutions [9][12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leader in the semiconductor industry, with a diversified product portfolio covering storage, MCU, and sensors. It is expected to benefit significantly from the AI trend and domestic substitution [12][19]. - The company's revenue and net profit have shown a strong recovery in 2024, with revenue reaching 7.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.69%, and net profit rising to 1.10 billion yuan, up 584.21% [30]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has a comprehensive layout in "storage + MCU + sensors," continuously deepening and expanding its product lines. It operates under a Fabless model, focusing on integrated circuit design and outsourcing manufacturing processes [19][22]. 2. Storage Market Dynamics - The storage market is witnessing a shift towards niche storage solutions, driven by AI at the edge, which is increasing customized demand. The company ranks second globally in NOR Flash market share, benefiting from the growing market size due to AI applications [2][12]. - The SLC NAND market is becoming more competitive, with domestic manufacturers like the company gaining traction as international giants shift focus to mainstream NAND markets. The company holds a 4% market share in SLC NAND [3][12]. - The DRAM market is evolving as major manufacturers exit DDR3 and DDR4 production, allowing domestic firms to fill the gap and achieve domestic substitution. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend [4][12]. 3. MCU and Sensor Segments - The company is the leading supplier of 32-bit Arm® MCU in China, with a robust product matrix and significant growth in the automotive sector. The global MCU market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.3% from 2023 to 2028 [10][12]. - In the sensor market, the company leads in touch and fingerprint sensor products, which are crucial for the IoT ecosystem. The global smart sensor market is projected to reach $57.25 billion by 2025 [11][12]. 4. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 9.36 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 27.3%. Net profit is projected to reach 1.46 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 32.5% [12][14].

Group 1: TMT Sector Insights - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the TMT sector's congestion has decreased, suggesting that a barbell strategy may be the optimal solution at present [3] - Based on the trend model, certain value sectors such as non-ferrous metals, agriculture, banking, and building materials are in the "strong trend - low congestion" area [3] - The report highlights that the building materials, non-bank financials, military industry, new energy, and steel sectors are in the "high prosperity + strong trend" quadrant, showing significant changes compared to the first quarter [3] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on stable value sectors (banking, non-bank financials, steel, agriculture, building materials) on one hand, and technology sectors (electronics, communications, military, new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals) on the other hand, as a barbell strategy [3] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - For Chipone Technology (688521.SH), the company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.18 billion, 4.06 billion, and 5.88 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 36.9%, 27.6%, and 45.0% [5] - The report anticipates that the net profit attributable to the parent company for Chipone Technology will be 10 million, 60 million, and 140 million yuan for the same years, reflecting significant growth rates of 101.8%, 505.1%, and 125.3% [5] - Eastroc Beverage (003012.SZ) is expected to generate revenues of 6.01 billion, 6.11 billion, and 6.58 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 17.8% [8] Group 4: Industry Performance Overview - The report lists the top-performing industries over the past year, with pharmaceuticals and biotechnology leading at 10.4%, followed by agriculture at 2.8% and textiles at 13.4% [1] - Conversely, the worst-performing industries include defense and military, food and beverage, and machinery, with declines of 17.5%, 3.1%, and 26.0% respectively over the past year [1] Group 5: Resource Expansion Insights - The report notes that Yubang Mining's silver resource has been confirmed to increase to 21,600 tons, with an additional 6,147 tons added, which is above expectations [9] - The projected revenues for Yubang Mining are expected to be 5.86 billion, 6.68 billion, and 8.32 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 2.06 billion, 2.41 billion, and 3.13 billion yuan respectively [9]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [4][5]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading provider of one-stop customized chip design and semiconductor IP licensing services, focusing on R&D to drive future growth [14][17]. - The demand for self-developed ASICs from cloud vendors is surging, presenting historical opportunities for the chip design service industry [2][38]. - There is a pressing need for domestic semiconductor IP, with the company ranked first in China and eighth globally in terms of sales revenue [3][4]. Summary by Sections One-Stop Customized Chip Design & IP - The company offers comprehensive chip customization services and semiconductor IP licensing, with a strong emphasis on R&D and talent development [14][17]. - As of Q1 2025, the company has a record high order backlog of 24.56 billion yuan, indicating robust future revenue potential [1][11]. ASIC Demand Surge - The chip design service industry is experiencing a significant demand increase for self-developed ASICs, particularly from major cloud service providers [2][38]. - The company has strong supply chain capabilities, enabling it to meet the self-development needs of large enterprises [2][38]. Semiconductor IP Localization - The company is the leading provider of semiconductor IP in China, with a wide range of applications for its NPU and GPU IP products [3][4]. - The localization of semiconductor IP is critical, and the company is well-positioned to benefit from the trend towards domestic alternatives [3][4]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue projections for the company are 31.8 billion yuan in 2025, 40.6 billion yuan in 2026, and 58.8 billion yuan in 2027, with expected growth rates of 36.9%, 27.6%, and 45.0% respectively [4][9]. - The company is expected to turn profitable by 2025, with a projected net profit of 0.1 billion yuan, growing significantly in subsequent years [4][9].