证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 06 15 年 月 日 电力 跨省跨区电力应急调度新规出台，" 疆电入渝"首批电源项目投产 本周行情回顾：本周（6.9-6.13）上证指数报收 3377.00 点，下跌 0.25%，沪深 300 指数报收 3864.18 点，下跌 0.25%。中信电力及公用事业指数报收 2947.49 点，上涨 0.29%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.54pct，位列 30 个中信一级板块涨跌幅榜 第 10 位。 本周行业观点： ➢ 跨省跨区电力应急调度新规出台，优先市场化，应急保供托底。6 月 13 日， 国家发改委发布公告，就《跨省跨区电力应急调度管理办法（征求意见稿）》 向社会公开征求意见。提出当电力运行中存在安全风险、电力电量平衡缺口 时，优先通过跨省跨区电力中长期交易、现货交易等市场化手段配置资源和 形成价格。当市场化手段不能完全解决问题时，电力调度机构方可在日前、 日内阶段组织实施应急调度。 应急调度电价结算规则： 投资建议：迎峰度夏已至，煤价持续下降，建议关注季度业绩具备弹性的火电板 块。随着电力市场化不断加深，辅助服务需求有望进一步提升，建议重视 ...

Group 1 - The coal mining sector is experiencing a slight decline, with the CITIC coal index at 3,236.71 points, down 0.34%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.09 percentage points [2][85] - The report highlights a significant business transformation opportunity for Anyuan Coal Industry due to its change in controlling shareholder to Jiangxi Tungsten Holdings, which may enhance the company's non-coal resource integration [2] Group 2 - In the coking coal market, prices are under pressure due to a combination of weak demand from steel companies and high inventory levels, with the average price for main coking coal reported at 1,070 CNY/ton [42][43] - The supply side is tightening slightly, but overall demand remains weak, leading to a continued accumulation of inventory in the coking coal sector [42][48] - The report emphasizes that the future performance of coking coal prices will depend on several factors, including domestic production cuts due to losses, significant disruptions in coking coal imports, and the implementation of strong stimulus policies [8][9] Group 3 - The thermal coal market is stable, with prices for thermal coal at the North Port reported at 618 CNY/ton, showing no change week-on-week [7][38] - The report notes that while supply is slightly tightening due to environmental inspections and production cuts, overall demand remains subdued, leading to limited price increases [19][39] - The report suggests that the coal market is currently buyer-driven, with procurement strategies significantly influencing coal price movements [7][39] Group 4 - The report identifies key investment targets in the coal sector, recommending companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Xinji Energy, among others, based on their performance and potential for recovery [12][11] - The focus is on companies that are expected to benefit from the ongoing structural changes in the coal industry, particularly those with strong financial performance and operational resilience [12][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining [6]. Core Views - The report highlights that gold prices have rebounded strongly due to expectations of interest rate cuts and rising geopolitical tensions, particularly following the breakdown of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran [1][34]. - Industrial metals, particularly copper, are experiencing price fluctuations due to weakening demand and ongoing negotiations between mining companies and smelters, with significant declines in processing fees [1][2]. - The lithium market is characterized by a stalemate in supply and demand, with prices showing slight fluctuations but overall remaining under pressure [2]. Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - **Gold**: Strong rebound in prices driven by lower inflation expectations and geopolitical tensions, with gold reaching new highs [1][34]. - **Copper**: Demand is weakening, leading to price stabilization; global copper inventory is at 515,000 tons, down by 22,400 tons week-on-week [1][2]. - **Aluminum**: Improved trading atmosphere due to eased trade tensions, with social inventory continuing to decline, supporting aluminum prices [1][2]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Prices are fluctuating within a range, with slight increases in supply but weak demand from downstream manufacturers [2]. - **Metal Silicon**: The market remains oversupplied, with prices under pressure due to high inventory levels and reduced production costs [2]. Key Companies to Watch - **Gold Sector**: Recommended companies include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, and others [1]. - **Industrial Metals**: Companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum, China Hongqiao, and Nanshan Aluminum are highlighted for potential investment [1][2]. - **Energy Metals**: Companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium are noted for their positions in the lithium market [2][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for selected stocks within the sector [5]. Core Insights - The white liquor segment is experiencing short-term price pressure, but the industry is gradually bottoming out, with leading brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye expected to show long-term value [2]. - The beverage sector is seeing intensified competition as companies like Uni-President re-enter the soda market, while new product launches continue to drive growth [3]. - The overall fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) market in China is projected to grow by 0.8% in sales and 4.4% in volume in 2024, with a notable trend towards "affordable alternatives" [4]. Summary by Sections White Liquor - Short-term price pressures are evident, with the industry expected to stabilize as inventory levels decrease and consumer demand shifts back to business and mass-market needs [2]. - Leading brands are anticipated to maintain their market share, providing a solid foundation for long-term investment opportunities [2]. Beer and Beverage - The beer sector is entering a peak season with increased competition, and companies are advised to focus on those with strong product momentum and stable operations [3]. - The beverage segment is characterized by a resurgence in product innovation, with Uni-President launching new flavors targeting the restaurant channel [3]. Food Sector - The food industry is witnessing significant innovation, with companies like Anjuke Foods successfully navigating the Hong Kong Stock Exchange listing process and launching new products to enhance revenue [4][8]. - The report highlights the importance of exploring new market channels and product opportunities, particularly in lower-tier cities where consumer spending is on the rise [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the media industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [6]. Core Insights - The media sector has shown a 1.38% increase during the week of June 9-13, driven by themes such as new consumption [10][18]. - Key areas of growth for 2025 include AI applications, IP monetization, and mergers and acquisitions, with a focus on multi-modal industry directions and companies with IP advantages [1][18]. - The report highlights the upcoming summer film season in 2025, with over 60 films scheduled for release, including a diverse range of genres [2][20]. - ByteDance's release of the Doubao model 1.6, a leading multi-modal model, marks a significant advancement in AI capabilities within the industry [3][20]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The media sector's performance is buoyed by new consumption trends, with a notable increase in stock prices for companies like Yuanlong Yatu and Chuanwang Media [10][13]. - The report identifies the top-performing stocks in the media sector, with Yuanlong Yatu leading at a 42.9% increase [13][16]. Sub-sector Insights - **Resource Integration**: Companies such as China Vision Media and Guangxi Broadcasting are highlighted for their potential in resource consolidation [18]. - **AI Focus**: Companies like Rongxin Culture and Aofei Entertainment are noted for their advancements in AI applications [18]. - **Gaming Sector**: Strong recommendations are made for companies with solid performance, including Shenzhou Taiyue and Giant Network [18]. - **State-owned Enterprises**: Companies like Ciweng Media and Anhui New Media are emphasized for their growth potential [18]. - **Education Sector**: Xueda Education is mentioned as a key player in the education sub-sector [18]. Key Events Recap - The report discusses the launch of the "China Film Consumption Year" initiative, aimed at boosting audience engagement during the summer film season [20]. - The performance of the domestic film market is highlighted, with significant box office figures reported for recent releases [22][24]. Data Tracking - The report provides insights into the gaming sector, noting popular upcoming games and their expected impact on the market [21]. - It also tracks viewership data for television series and variety shows, indicating audience preferences and trends [25][26].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 06 15 年 月 日 当前为何要重视建筑央企港股投资机会？ 央企港股估值极低，A/H 价差大，股息率具备较强吸引力 。截至 2024/6/13，中国中铁、中国铁建、中国交通建设的 H 股 PE（ TTM）均小 于 4 倍；中国中铁、中国铁建、中国交通建设、中国中冶、中国能源建设 PB（ MRQ）均小于 0.4 倍，建筑央企港股估值处于极低位置。从 A 股与 H 股的价差看，两地上市的中国中铁、中国铁建、中国交通建设、中国中冶、 中国能源建设 5 家公司 A/H 价差平均为 86% 所有两地上市公司 A/H 价 差平均为 73%），其中中国中冶、中国能源建设 A/H 价差超过 100%。从 股息率看，我们统计的 7 家建筑央企 见表 1）H 股的平均股息率 TTM） 为 5.16%，其中中国中铁、中国铁建、中国交通建设、中石化炼化工程 H 股股息率 TTM）均高于 5%，具备较强吸引力。 对保险等长周期资金来说，建筑央企港股配置性价比凸显。监管政策积极 引导中长期资金入市，证监会等六部委印发《关于推动中长期资金入市工 作的实施方案》，预计增量中长 ...

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Buy" rating for specific stocks, including Xining Steel, Nanjing Steel, Hualing Steel, and Baosteel, among others [8][7]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the financial attributes of commodities are strengthening, driven by geopolitical tensions and the long-term challenges faced by dominant reserve currencies [2]. - The steel industry is expected to see a recovery in profitability, primarily influenced by supply-side adjustments and the optimization of production capacity [2][7]. - The report highlights a significant increase in steel exports, with a net export of 45.916 million tons in the first five months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.3% [4][12]. Supply Analysis - The average daily pig iron production has decreased by 0.2 million tons to 2.415 million tons, indicating a slight decline in long-process production [11]. - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces is reported at 90.6%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points week-on-week but an increase of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year [3][17]. - Total steel inventory has decreased by 0.7%, with a more pronounced decline in the rate of decrease compared to the previous week [25][27]. Demand Analysis - Apparent consumption of the five major steel products has continued to weaken, with rebar consumption down by 4.0% week-on-week [42][43]. - The average weekly transaction volume for construction steel has decreased to 100,000 tons, reflecting a 4.0% decline [44][42]. Price and Profitability - Steel prices are running weakly, with the Myspic comprehensive steel price index at 119.3, down 0.6% week-on-week and down 14.0% year-on-year [71]. - The current spot prices for rebar in Beijing and Shanghai are reported at 3,200 yuan/ton and 3,070 yuan/ton, respectively, with slight fluctuations observed [72][73]. Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include: - Hualing Steel (600782.SH) with a projected EPS of 0.29 yuan for 2024 and a PE ratio of 17.20 [8]. - Nanjing Steel (600282.SH) with a projected EPS of 0.37 yuan for 2024 and a PE ratio of 11.60 [8]. - Baosteel (600019.SH) with a projected EPS of 0.34 yuan for 2024 and a PE ratio of 19.80 [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the expansion of AI themes from a single algorithm to diversified scenarios, including computing power, C-end applications, autonomous driving, robotics, and AI for Science, indicating a transition from the "technology trigger" phase to a "steady recovery" and "production maturity" phase in the computing power sector [1][22][24] - The report highlights significant performance growth in domestic optical communication manufacturers, with NewEase's net profit expected to increase by over 380% year-on-year in Q1 2025, demonstrating the realization of performance in the computing power sector [1][22][24] - The report suggests that downstream applications of AI, such as AI agents, autonomous driving, and AI for Science, are likely to accelerate into maturity stages, showcasing practical commercial value [2][23] Group 2 - The report identifies a shift in institutional holdings from high-risk preferences to value growth in the computing power sector, with notable reductions in holdings of companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Tianfu Communication [2][24] - The "pendulum effect" in the computing power sector is discussed, indicating a rebalancing of fundamentals and market chips, where lower-valued stocks may attract capital due to technological breakthroughs or order increases [3][24] - The report indicates that the optical module sector is entering a golden period of value growth, driven by product upgrades, connection value expansion, and a stable market structure [4][25][27] Group 3 - The report recommends focusing on key companies in the computing power supply chain, particularly in the optical module industry, such as Zhongji Xuchuang and NewEase, as well as smaller firms like Tianfu Communication and Shijia Photon [7][29] - It emphasizes the importance of technological barriers and high order visibility in the core segments of the computing power sector [3][24] - The report provides a detailed overview of the optical module industry, highlighting the demand for 800G optical modules in North America, projected to reach 20 million units by 2025 [4][27]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 06 15 年 月 日 2）社融结构：5 月单月新增社融 2.29 万亿，同比多增 2271 亿： A.对实体经济发放的人民币贷款增加 5960 亿，同比少增 2237 亿； B.新口径下企业债券融资净增加 1496 亿，同比多增 1211 亿，5 月公司债 发行利率在 4 月较低水平上进一步下行，企业发债意愿有所提高； C.表外融资方面，信托贷款净增加 173 亿，委托贷款净减少 167 亿，分别 同比少增 51 亿和同比多减 158 亿； D.政府债券净增加 1.46 万亿，同比多增 2367 亿，年内政府债券发行进度 明显加快，成为拉动社融增长的主要因素； E.未贴现银行汇票减少 1162 亿，同比少减 169 亿。 银行 本周聚焦—5 月社融数据：政府债支撑社融，新发放贷款利率保持不变 一、5 月社融数据 1、社融结构拆分 1）社融增速：2025 年 5 月新口径下社融增速 8.7%，较上月持平，剔除 政府债券后的社融增速 6.0%，较上月持平。 2、信贷、存款增长情况 1）贷款：5 月新增人民币贷款 6200 亿元，同比少增 3300 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the industry [5] Core Views - The offshore wind power sector is expected to see a performance inflection point in Q2 2025, with significant project developments and a total of 8GW of offshore wind projects expected to commence by 2025 [2][15] - The solar photovoltaic market is experiencing weak terminal demand, with a projected 15-20% decrease in component operating rates in June 2025, leading to a decline in component prices [1][14] - The hydrogen energy sector is witnessing the establishment of a green hydrogen project in Guizhou, with an expected annual production of 10,400 tons of green hydrogen [3][22] Summary by Sections New Energy Generation - **Solar Energy**: Component prices are declining, with current prices for ground-mounted TOPCon components at 0.670 RMB/W and HJT components at 0.730 RMB/W. Operating rates are expected to decrease by 15-20% in June [1][14] - **Wind Power & Grid**: A total of 8GW of offshore wind projects are set to start by 2025, with 2.55GW expected to be connected to the grid within the same year. The focus is on the performance inflection point in Q2 2025 [2][15][19] - **Hydrogen & Energy Storage**: The Guizhou green hydrogen project has a total investment of 715 million RMB and will produce 10,400 tons of green hydrogen annually. The energy storage sector is seeing competitive bidding with prices ranging from 0.484 to 1.299 RMB/Wh [3][22][28] New Energy Vehicles - **Solid-State Batteries**: A subsidiary of Huaya Intelligent has signed a contract for a 200MWh solid-state battery production line, with expected contributions to the parent company of approximately 42 million RMB in 2025 and 45 million RMB in 2026 [4][32] - **Investment Opportunities**: The report suggests focusing on solid-state battery technology and related equipment manufacturers, as well as established lithium battery leaders [32][33] Price Dynamics in the Photovoltaic Industry - The report highlights the price trends in the photovoltaic supply chain, indicating a downward trend in component prices and the need to monitor raw material prices [1][34] Important News - The report includes significant developments in the new energy sector, such as the launch of a heavy-duty truck battery swap system standard in Shenzhen and the announcement of new partnerships in the battery materials sector [36][38]