Economic Outlook - The central government emphasizes the need to maintain a stable growth tone in the second quarter, avoiding a "tightening then loosening" approach, to consolidate the positive economic recovery seen in the first quarter[20]. - The first quarter GDP exceeded expectations, indicating that macroeconomic policies will not weaken but may even strengthen in the second quarter[6]. Fiscal Policy - The central government plans to accelerate the issuance of special bonds and maintain necessary fiscal spending intensity to support economic momentum[22]. - The emphasis is on early issuance and effective use of ultra-long special government bonds, with a focus on increasing the pace of special bond issuance[6]. Monetary Policy - The meeting highlighted the need for flexible use of interest rates and reserve requirement ratios to support the real economy and reduce overall financing costs[8]. - There is an expectation of potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the second and third quarters to facilitate fiscal expansion[9]. Real Estate Policy - The government is entering a new phase in real estate policy, focusing on both digesting existing inventory and optimizing new housing supply[30]. - Initiatives like "old-for-new" housing exchanges are expected to expand, enhancing the supply of affordable housing and stimulating demand for new homes[31]. Domestic Demand - The meeting stressed the importance of expanding domestic demand, particularly through large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement programs[61]. - The automotive sector is identified as a key area for stimulating consumption, with expectations for further supportive measures to boost sales[39]. External Trade - The government encourages private enterprises to expand overseas and diversify foreign trade, with a focus on intermediate goods, service trade, and digital trade[42]. - Policies are set to support the integration of Chinese enterprises into global value chains, enhancing competitiveness in international markets[63].

Group 1 - The MSCI Information Technology Index fell by 5.6% in April, underperforming the MSCI Global Index by 2.2 percentage points, making it the worst-performing sector globally [4] - The Wind Information Technology Index in A-shares dropped by 1.8%, lagging behind the CSI 300 Index by 3.7 percentage points, primarily due to declines in software services and semiconductor equipment sectors [4] - The Hang Seng Information Technology Index rose by 10.3%, outperforming the Hang Seng Composite Index, indicating increased investor interest in growth stocks under improved market sentiment [4] Group 2 - In April, various local governments issued regulations and policies related to the low-altitude economy, with the issuance of the world's first production license for unmanned aerial vehicle systems to EHang being a significant milestone [5][67] - The demand for AI servers, particularly in the hardware sector, is robust, with companies like Inspur reporting a significant increase in contract liabilities, driven by high demand for AI servers [10][20] - The semiconductor design sector in mainland China has seen a notable increase in revenue, with a 4.7% year-on-year growth to 21 billion yuan, driven by a recovery in consumer electronics [13][29] Group 3 - The semiconductor equipment sector is experiencing significant growth due to policy support and the expansion of domestic wafer fabs, with leading companies showing resilience despite some profit declines in non-core businesses [30][22] - TSMC has lowered its revenue outlook for the semiconductor foundry industry, indicating ongoing weakness in downstream demand, particularly in automotive and industrial sectors [11][48] - The AI sector remains a key focus, with companies like Microsoft reporting strong growth in cloud services driven by AI, confirming the industry's leading position in generative AI [31][50]

Group 1 - The probability of no interest rate cuts in 2024 has increased further, with the market pricing in less than 1.5 cuts for the entire year, and the first cut expected in November [4][22][64] - Despite a slowdown in the US economy, private sector demand remains strong, supporting consumption and investment, with expectations of resilience in the economy during the second half of the year [3][15][47] - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate hikes indicates that the negative impact on risk assets has largely subsided, allowing for potential valuation recovery [26][37][56] Group 2 - The recent rebound in Hong Kong stocks is attributed to improving macroeconomic indicators in China and supportive policy measures, with expectations for this rebound to continue for several months [7][48] - The manufacturing cycle is expected to bottom out and rebound, driven by inventory replenishment, which could positively influence global economic cycles [67] - The market's adjustment of interest rate cut expectations has led to a more neutral pricing environment, reducing the likelihood of further pressure on risk assets [72][79]

Employment Data - In April 2024, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 175,000, significantly below the expected 243,000 and marking the smallest gain in six months[1] - The unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, higher than both the expected and previous value of 3.8%[1] - The labor force participation rate remained stable at 62.7%, consistent with expectations and the previous month[1] Wage Growth and Hours Worked - The year-on-year growth rate of average hourly earnings fell to 3.9%, below the expected 4.0% and the previous value of 4.1%[2] - Month-on-month average hourly earnings growth decreased to 0.2%, lower than the expected and previous rate of 0.3%[2] - Average weekly hours worked increased to 34.3, slightly below the expected and previous value of 34.4[1] Market Implications - The slowdown in employment data has eased market concerns about stagflation, with wage growth and hours worked declining[2] - The market's expectations for interest rate cuts have increased, with the first anticipated cut moving from November to September, and the overall expectation rising from 1.5 to 2 cuts for the year[15] - Despite the employment slowdown, it may not be sufficient to support a rate cut in Q3 2024, and caution is advised regarding the timing of potential cuts[5] Sector Contributions - Job gains in April were primarily driven by healthcare (+56,000), social assistance (+31,000), and transportation and warehousing (+22,000), while government and leisure sectors saw significant declines[14]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy" [1][3]. Core Views - The new business value growth exceeded expectations, and profitability is expected to rebound in the future [1]. - The company experienced a significant decline in profit, with a year-on-year decrease of 28.6% in Q1 2024, which is higher than the industry average [1]. - The premium structure has significantly improved, with a notable increase in the proportion of ten-year and above premium payments [1]. - The total investment return rate decreased year-on-year, while the comprehensive investment return rate increased by 1 percentage point [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 71,547 million, a year-on-year decrease of 33.8%, with a recovery expected in 2024 with an 8.7% growth [2]. - Net profit for 2023 is estimated at RMB 8,712 million, down 59.5% year-on-year, but expected to rise by 15.2% in 2024 [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to be RMB 3.22, with a growth of 15.2% [2]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 4.4 times in 2024, indicating a low valuation compared to historical levels [2]. - The company’s total assets are projected to reach RMB 1,525,141 million by the end of 2024, reflecting a growth of 8.7% [12]. Business Performance - The new business value for Q1 2024 increased by 51% year-on-year, outperforming peers, with significant growth in both bancassurance and individual insurance channels [1]. - The proportion of new single premium payments decreased by 4.2% year-on-year, but the ten-year and above premium payments surged by 83.9% [1]. - The company’s investment assets grew by 2.3% compared to the end of the previous year, but the investment income decreased by 4.6% year-on-year [1]. Market Outlook - The target price for the company is set at HKD 20.50, representing a potential upside of 35.6% from the current price [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from a stabilization in the real estate market and a potential recovery in the yield of 10-year government bonds [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haier Smart Home (6690 HK) with a target price of HKD 35.79, indicating a potential upside of 22.4% from the current price of HKD 29.25 [1][5]. Core Insights - Haier Smart Home's Q1 2024 profit growth exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 20.2% in net profit, reaching RMB 4.77 billion, driven by product mix upgrades and cost control measures [1]. - The company's revenue for Q1 2024 grew by 6.0% year-on-year to RMB 69 billion, with a gross margin improvement of 0.3 percentage points to 29.0% [1]. - Both domestic and overseas business profitability improved, with domestic revenue increasing by 8%, particularly in air conditioning and kitchen appliances, which saw double-digit growth [1]. - The high-end brand Casarte achieved a 14% revenue growth in Q1, aligning with the company's targets, and is expected to continue benefiting from new product launches and enhanced brand management [1]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Haier Smart Home are as follows: RMB 283.26 billion in 2024E, RMB 306.54 billion in 2025E, and RMB 331.05 billion in 2026E, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.0% [2]. - Net profit is expected to reach RMB 19.31 billion in 2024E, RMB 21.56 billion in 2025E, and RMB 23.84 billion in 2026E, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 16.4%, 11.7%, and 10.6% respectively [2]. - The report highlights a projected earnings per share (EPS) of RMB 2.08 for 2024E, increasing to RMB 2.57 by 2026E [2]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 32.65% as of the report date, with a 52-week high of HKD 29.25 and a low of HKD 20.55 [4][3]. - The market capitalization of Haier Smart Home is approximately HKD 289.79 billion [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating for the company, Xin Ao Energy (2688 HK), with a target price of HKD 66.30, indicating a potential downside of 1.8% from the current price of HKD 67.50 [3][9]. Core Insights - The company's operational performance shows a continued recovery trend, with retail gas volume experiencing a mild year-on-year growth of 2.7% in Q1 2024. The growth in industrial and commercial gas sales was 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively [3]. - The management has set a retail gas growth target of approximately 5% for 2024, supported by a favorable pricing ratio and expected decreases in procurement costs [3]. - LNG trading profits are expected to decrease starting in the second half of 2024, with projected profits of RMB 200 million in H1 and RMB 300 million for the entire year [3]. - The market has already priced in expectations of a bottoming out of the company's earnings, with a year-to-date stock performance of +17%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index [3]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections show a steady increase from RMB 110,051 million in 2022 to RMB 139,605 million by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.5% [2][13]. - Net profit is expected to grow from RMB 5,865 million in 2022 to RMB 8,502 million in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of around 8.3% [2][13]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to decline from RMB 7.04 in 2022 to RMB 6.08 in 2024, before recovering to RMB 7.52 by 2026 [2][13]. - The company maintains a dividend yield of approximately 3.8% in 2022, increasing to 5.4% by 2026 [2][13]. Operational Metrics - The company aims for a 20%-30% growth in its comprehensive energy business and a 10% increase in retail gas segment gross profit for 2024 [5]. - The total retail gas sales volume is projected to grow from 25,941 million cubic meters in 2022 to 28,818 million cubic meters by 2026 [5][6]. - The company plans to develop 1,200 to 1,400 million cubic meters per day of new industrial and commercial users and 1.4 to 1.6 million new residential users annually [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 2.00, indicating a potential upside of 19.8% from the current price of HKD 1.67 [1][2][8]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 earnings fell by 6% year-on-year, which was within expectations. The decline was attributed to a 3% drop in average on-grid electricity prices and a 5.4% increase in depreciation due to new installations [1][2]. - The management expects to add over 2 GW of new capacity in 2024, with a conservative estimate of 1.8 GW and 2.1 GW for 2024 and 2025, respectively [2][3]. - The projected earnings for 2024 show a modest increase of 4.6% year-on-year, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.7% from 2023 to 2026 [2][3]. Financial Overview - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 12,802 million in 2023 to RMB 13,025 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.7% [3][9]. - Net profit is expected to decrease from RMB 2,753 million in 2023 to RMB 2,856 million in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6% [3][9]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 5.0 in 2023 and 4.8 in 2024, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical averages [3][9]. Operational Data - The company reported a total installed capacity of 12,981 MW in 2023, with expectations to reach 13,831 MW by 2025 [6][9]. - The total electricity generation is projected to increase from 31,608 GWh in 2023 to 34,248 GWh in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 8.7% [6][9]. Dividend Policy - The dividend payout ratio has increased by 13 percentage points to 23% in 2023, but further increases are expected to be limited as the company focuses on achieving its installation targets [2][3].

交银国际研究 公司更新 新能源 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 2024年4月30日 港元5.80 港元4.98↓ -14.1% 凯盛新能 (1108 HK) 1 季度业绩低于预期，和龙头毛利率差距扩大，下调目标价  1 季度业绩低于预期，和龙头毛利率差距扩大：公司2024年1季度收入 个股评级 14.4 亿元人民币（下同），同比/环比+0.8%/-22.9%，归母/扣非净亏损 中性 0.06/0.09亿元，同比下降151%/419%，2022年以来首次单季亏损，低于 我们预期，主要是由于毛利率、销量低于预期。公司1季度冷修850吨老 1年股价表现 产线，光伏玻璃产量环比小幅下降，同时由去年4季度的销大于产转为产 大于销，导致销量下降。根据卓创资讯，1季度2.0毫米光伏玻璃均价环 1108 HK 恒生指数 10% 比下跌9%，导致毛利率创出8.2%的多年新低，同比/环比下降1.7/3.6个百 0% 分点，和龙头福莱特的差距环比扩大1.6个百分点至13.3个百分点。销售/ -10% -20% 管理/研发/财务费用率0.4%/2.6%/3.8%/1.4%，同比-0.2/+0.1/-0.3/+0.2个百 -30% 分点 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yili Co., Ltd. (600887 CH) with a target price raised to RMB 33.50, indicating a potential upside of 17.1% from the current price of RMB 28.61 [1][4]. Core Insights - Yili continues to expand its market share and profit margins despite a sluggish market, with a notable performance in fresh milk and ice cream segments [1]. - The company reported a decline in revenue for Q4 2023 and Q1 2024, with year-on-year decreases of 1.8% and 2.6%, respectively, primarily due to challenges in the liquid milk business [1]. - The management has guided for a revenue growth of 3% in 2024, targeting RMB 130 billion, with a pre-tax profit increase of 25% to RMB 14.7 billion [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 126.18 billion, with a modest growth of 2.4% compared to 2022. For 2024, revenue is expected to reach RMB 130.24 billion, reflecting a growth of 3.2% [2]. - Net profit for 2023 is estimated at RMB 10.43 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 10.6%. The forecast for 2024 anticipates a net profit of RMB 13.27 billion, representing a significant increase of 27.3% [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is projected at RMB 1.63, with an expected rise to RMB 2.07 in 2024 [2]. Market Performance - Yili's stock has shown resilience with a year-to-date increase of 6.95%, and its market capitalization stands at approximately RMB 180.39 billion [3]. - The stock has a 52-week high of RMB 30.67 and a low of RMB 25.33, indicating a stable trading range [3]. Product Performance - The liquid milk segment faced pressure, but fresh milk sales doubled year-on-year, while ice cream sales grew robustly by 11.7% in 2023, driven by expansion in lower-tier markets and Southeast Asia [1]. - For Q1 2024, sales in liquid milk, milk powder, ice cream, and other products showed varied performance, with liquid milk sales declining by 6.8% [1]. Strategic Outlook - The management aims to achieve a pre-tax net profit margin of no less than 9% by 2025, up from 8.3% in 2023, despite anticipated increases in operating expenses due to enhanced channel investments [1]. - The report emphasizes that Yili's ability to maintain and grow its market share in a challenging environment positions it favorably for future growth [1].