金融工程|定期报告 2025年1月19日 证券研究报告 | 金融工程:融资余额增加,ETF资 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金流入 | | | | | | | A 股量化择时研究报告 | | | | | | | 市场回顾(本期是指2025年1月13日—2025年1月17日) | | | | | | | 中证 结构表现 | 沪深 | 中证 | 中证 | 中证 | 国证 | | 100 (涨幅) | 300 | 500 | 800 | 1000 | 2000 | | 1.67% | 2.14% | 4.06% | 2.62% | 5.35% | 5.46% | | 强度前五:社会服务、传媒、计算机、通信、机械设备。 行业表现 | | | | | | | 强度后五:家用电器、银行、公用事业、煤炭、食品饮料。 | | | | | | | 市场估值 | | | | | | | 分析师: | 安宁宁 | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号: S0260512020003 | | | SFC CE No. BNW179 | | | 0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a current price of HKD 15.48 and a target value of HKD 19.11 [5]. Core Views - The company has partnered with the Chinese Olympic Committee, which is expected to enhance its brand value. It will provide official sportswear for major events from 2025 to 2028, including the Winter Olympics and Asian Games [10]. - The company is anticipated to achieve stable growth in 2025, with improvements in discount and gross margin. Despite increased marketing expenses, the net profit margin is expected to remain above 10% [10]. - The company is focusing on expanding its store network, particularly through direct sales, and is expected to launch more cost-effective products in response to consumer trends [10]. - The forecast for net profit from 2024 to 2026 is CNY 30.7 billion, CNY 30.4 billion, and CNY 33.7 billion, respectively. The report assigns a PE ratio of 15 for 2025, leading to a target value of HKD 19.11 per share [10]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from CNY 25.803 billion in 2022 to CNY 30.306 billion in 2026, with a growth rate of 14.3% in 2022, slowing to 6.0% by 2026 [4][14]. - EBITDA is expected to increase from CNY 5.162 billion in 2022 to CNY 6.906 billion in 2026, with a notable dip in 2023 [4][14]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to decline from CNY 4.064 billion in 2022 to CNY 3.374 billion in 2026, reflecting a challenging market environment [4][14]. - The company's EPS is projected to decrease from CNY 1.54 in 2022 to CNY 1.31 in 2026, indicating a potential decline in profitability [4][14]. Key Financial Ratios - The report highlights a decrease in ROE from 16.7% in 2022 to 10.1% in 2025, suggesting a decline in return on equity [13]. - The net profit margin is expected to decrease from 15.7% in 2022 to 11.1% in 2026, indicating potential profitability challenges [13]. - The company's debt-to-asset ratio is projected to improve from 27.7% in 2022 to 23.8% in 2026, reflecting a strengthening balance sheet [13].

Group 1 - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] - The report highlights that recent liquidity tightening in the interbank market has led to a significant rebound in short-term funding prices, driven by factors such as increased credit issuance, government bond issuance, tax settlements, and pre-Spring Festival cash demand [7] - The report suggests that the root cause of liquidity tightening is the depreciation of the RMB, which has exceeded the short-term volatility threshold, necessitating fiscal policy to stimulate demand and ultimately narrow long-term bond spreads [7] Group 2 - The report indicates that while liquidity pressure may stabilize long-term government bond rates in the short term, it could adversely affect banks' funding costs and impact equity market liquidity expectations [7] - The analysis emphasizes that the widening of the China-US interest rate differential is a key issue affecting the exchange rate, and that addressing this requires fiscal measures to boost demand rather than solely tightening monetary policy [7] - The report anticipates that the recent interest rate fluctuations are temporary, with the central bank likely to provide more liquidity support in response to market demand [7] Group 3 - The report includes a valuation and financial analysis of key banks, all rated "Buy," with reasonable values projected for major banks such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (6.68 CNY), China Construction Bank (8.46 CNY), and Agricultural Bank of China (5.10 CNY) [8] - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024 and 2025, along with price-to-earnings (PE) and price-to-book (PB) ratios for various banks, indicating a positive outlook for the banking sector [8] - The report also notes that the central bank's monetary policy framework will increasingly focus on price stability, with short-term price stability being a crucial component [7][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 11.20 CNY and a reasonable value of 14.41 CNY [2][3]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company's ongoing reforms are yielding results, leading to significant growth in annual performance. The expected net profit for 2024 is projected to be between 1.0 to 1.1 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 55.1% to 70.6% [7]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong performance trajectory, with revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 at 148.7 billion CNY, 156.6 billion CNY, and 164.0 billion CNY respectively, reflecting growth rates of 4.6%, 5.3%, and 4.7% [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the company's focus on operational efficiency and cost reduction, which has contributed to improved profitability metrics, including a projected net profit margin increase [7][8]. Financial Summary - Revenue (in million CNY) is forecasted to grow from 14,213 in 2023 to 15,657 in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4.6% [5][8]. - EBITDA is expected to rise from 1,509 million CNY in 2023 to 2,729 million CNY in 2025, indicating a strong operational performance [5][8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase significantly from 645 million CNY in 2023 to 1,450 million CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 37.9% [5][8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to grow from 0.23 CNY in 2023 to 0.51 CNY in 2025 [5][8]. Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 37.69 in 2023 to 21.77 in 2025, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [5][8]. - The report assigns a target P/E of 28 for 2025, leading to a reasonable value estimate of 14.41 CNY per share [7][8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Viewpoints - The global demand for new energy vehicles (NEVs) is expected to exceed expectations due to the increase in domestic penetration rates and the overseas new model cycle. In China, NEV sales from January to November 2024 reached 10.12 million units, a year-on-year increase of 40.3%. The forecast for 2024 includes 10.48 million passenger vehicles and 643,000 commercial vehicles sold in China, representing year-on-year growth of 33.6% and 42.6%, respectively [17][19] - The demand for power batteries is anticipated to grow at a rate higher than that of vehicle sales, with global power battery demand projected to reach 1,004 GWh in 2024, 1,316 GWh in 2025, and 1,737 GWh in 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 31% [20][19] Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles - In China, the "old-for-new" policy is expected to significantly boost passenger vehicle demand, with a potential consumption scale of 1.3 trillion CNY from replacing old vehicles. The policy is anticipated to stimulate demand for new energy commercial vehicles as well [20][24] - The overseas market is expected to grow, with an overall forecast of over 5.4 million units sold in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6%. The growth is driven by different policy environments and model cycles across regions [17][19] Energy Storage - The rapid development of new energy sources is creating opportunities in energy storage, with global energy storage capacity expected to reach 187 GWh in 2024, 269 GWh in 2025, and 365 GWh in 2026, representing year-on-year growth rates of 74%, 44%, and 36%, respectively [6][19] Supply Chain - The financial framework indicates that leading companies in the battery and lithium iron phosphate sectors are beginning to see improvements in return on equity (ROE). The capital expenditure has remained low since Q4 2022, but is expected to stabilize post-Q3 2024 [6][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of re-evaluating balance sheets and recommends focusing on battery and lithium iron phosphate materials, while also paying attention to leading companies in electrolyte, anode materials, copper foil, and separators [6][19]

Group 1 - Industry investment rating: Buy [3] - Core viewpoint: Demand growth outpaces supply, leading to significant increases in passenger load factors [2][8] - The industry saw a year-on-year improvement in supply and demand in December, with total supply and demand for five listed airlines improving by 7.6% and 13.7% respectively compared to the previous year [8] Group 2 - Domestic and international routes have shown strong recovery, with domestic supply and demand at 109.6% and 111.9% of 2019 levels respectively [8] - International routes experienced a substantial increase in supply and demand, with year-on-year growth of 34.7% and 47.2%, leading to a load factor increase of 6.9 percentage points [8] - The report highlights the robust recovery of major airlines, with significant improvements in operational data for airlines like Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines [8] Group 3 - The report anticipates that the long-term supply-demand dynamics in the industry will continue to improve, supported by government initiatives to boost tourism and simplified entry-exit policies [8] - The report recommends investment in specific airlines, including Air China, China Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines, while also monitoring Hainan Airlines and Huaxia Airlines [8] - The expected earnings of airlines are projected to rise, indicating potential investment opportunities in the aviation sector [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Viewpoints - The gas turbine market is expected to experience significant growth due to the increasing demand from overseas data centers, particularly in North America, where gas turbines are primarily used as the main power source [5][39] - The global market for gas turbines is estimated to be around 1200-1500 billion CNY, with annual sales of approximately 40-50 GW [30] - The construction of data centers by major cloud companies is projected to lead to a rapid increase in gas turbine demand, with a potential market elasticity of nearly 50% [5][61] Summary by Sections Section 1: Gas Turbines as Key Components in AI Infrastructure - Gas turbines are recognized as essential in the energy sector, offering advantages such as low pollution, high thermal efficiency, and quick startup times [16] - The global gas turbine market is dominated by power generation (67%), oil and gas (25%), and other industrial applications (8%) [30] Section 2: Growth of Overseas Data Centers - Major cloud companies have announced capital expenditures totaling 285.1 billion USD for data centers, with 198.5 billion USD allocated for the U.S. [39][41] - The expected construction capacity for data centers in the Americas is projected to reach 25 GW [5] Section 3: Market Dynamics and Opportunities - The gas turbine market is anticipated to see a 50% increase in annual orders by 2026, driven by the growth of data centers [5][56] - Domestic suppliers are positioned to benefit from the demand for gas turbine components, with companies like Yingliu Co., Linde Co., and Haomai Technology highlighted as key players [5] Section 4: Financial Analysis of Key Companies - Yingliu Co. (603308.SH) has a target price of 30.00 CNY per share, with a "Buy" rating [6] - Linde Co. (605060.SH) has a target price of 19.19 CNY per share, also rated as "Buy" [6] - Haomai Technology (002595.SZ) is rated "Buy" with a target price of 47.38 CNY per share [6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Jinkong Coal (601001 SH) with a target price of 14 90 yuan and a current price of 12 79 yuan [3] Core Viewpoints - Jinkong Coal has initiated the acquisition of a coal exploration right with a designed capacity of 10 million tons per year marking a significant step in the integration of group assets [1][8] - The company has sufficient cash on hand to complete the acquisition with net cash of 12 5 billion yuan after deducting interest-bearing liabilities of 3 48 billion yuan [8] - Upon completion and operation of the Panjiayao Mine the company's controlled coal production capacity is expected to increase by 29% [8] - The company is a small but high-quality coal platform under the Jinneng Holding Group with strong profitability and potential for capacity growth benefiting from long-term group asset integration [8] - The company has no large ongoing projects resulting in low capital expenditure pressure and a gradually increasing dividend payout ratio (14 4% in 2021 34 6% in 2022 and 40 0% in 2023) [8] Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue is projected to decline slightly from 15 34 billion yuan in 2023 to 14 53 billion yuan in 2025 with a growth rate of -2 9% in 2025 [7] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decrease from 3 30 billion yuan in 2023 to 2 77 billion yuan in 2025 with a growth rate of -3 0% in 2025 [7] - EPS is forecasted to be 1 71 yuan in 2024 1 66 yuan in 2025 and 1 67 yuan in 2026 [7] - The P/E ratio is expected to rise from 6 25 in 2023 to 7 73 in 2025 [7] - ROE is projected to decline from 19 5% in 2023 to 13 7% in 2025 [7] Asset and Liability Overview - The company's total assets are expected to increase from 37 68 billion yuan in 2023 to 45 28 billion yuan in 2026 [10] - Net cash from operating activities is projected to be 4 67 billion yuan in 2024 and 4 87 billion yuan in 2026 [10] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio is expected to decrease from 35 3% in 2023 to 28 6% in 2026 indicating improved financial health [12] Valuation and Dividend Yield - Based on a 9x P/E ratio for 2025 the company's fair value is estimated at 14 90 yuan per share [8] - Assuming a 40% dividend payout ratio for 2024 the current market value corresponds to a dividend yield of 5 3% [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Buy" with a current price of HKD 380.00 and a fair value of HKD 478.52 [5][20]. Core Views - The report anticipates a strong performance in gaming, resilient advertising, and a recovery in financial services for Tencent in Q4 2024. The expected revenue for Q4 2024 is RMB 169.1 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 9% [9][20]. - The gaming revenue is projected to accelerate, with expectations of reaching RMB 46.6 billion in Q4 2024, a 14% year-over-year increase. Domestic gaming is expected to grow by 16% while overseas gaming revenue is projected to increase by 10% [9][20]. - The report maintains a positive outlook on Tencent's core business driven by product innovation and social media traffic, suggesting that the company can gradually release its commercialization potential through innovations like WeChat stores [9][20]. Summary by Sections Earnings Forecast - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast for Tencent from 2022 to 2026, with revenue expected to grow from RMB 5,546 million in 2022 to RMB 7,685 million in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.8% [4][20]. - Non-GAAP net profit is projected to increase from RMB 1,149 million in 2022 to RMB 2,775 million in 2026, with a significant growth rate of 45.3% in 2024 [4][20]. Financial Metrics - The report highlights key financial metrics, including an expected EPS of RMB 24.10 in 2024, with a P/E ratio of 14.5, and a projected ROE of 22.4% [4][20]. - The EBITDA is forecasted to grow from RMB 1,612 million in 2022 to RMB 3,379 million in 2026, indicating a strong operational performance [4][20]. Valuation - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, estimating the core business value at HKD 404 billion and the investment business value at HKD 37.23 billion, leading to a total fair value of HKD 478.52 per share [17][20]. - The gaming business is valued at HKD 189.74 per share based on an 18x P/E ratio, while the advertising business is valued at HKD 104.73 per share using a 27x P/E ratio [17][20].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 19.80 CNY and a fair value of 29.37 CNY [4]. Core Views - The company's revenue growth remains resilient, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7% for 2024, although this is a decline of 1.1 percentage points compared to the first three quarters of 2024. The net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 0.1% year-on-year, showing a recovery of 3.1 percentage points compared to the previous quarters [8]. - The company is expected to benefit from good growth in interest-earning assets, effective control of net interest margin decline, narrowing declines in fee income, stable investment income growth, and reasonable control of expenses [8]. - The asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.07%, unchanged from the previous year, and a provision coverage ratio of 237.78%, which has increased by 4.24 percentage points from the previous quarter [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, total assets and loans increased by 3.5% and 5.1% year-on-year, respectively. The company is expected to allocate a significant amount to investment-type assets in Q4 2024, with an estimated total asset increase of approximately 203.3 billion CNY [8]. - The company’s total liabilities and deposits grew by 2.9% and 7.7% year-on-year, respectively, with deposits contributing significantly to the increase [8]. Profitability Forecast - The company’s net profit growth is projected to be 1.28% and 1.73% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with earnings per share (EPS) expected to be 3.56 CNY and 3.62 CNY [8]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 5.56X and 5.46X for 2025 and 2026, respectively, and a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.50X and 0.47X for the same years [8]. Asset Quality - The company’s non-performing loan balance is projected to increase to 61.4 billion CNY by 2026, with a stable non-performing loan ratio expected to remain around 1.07% [8]. - The provision for loan losses is expected to increase, enhancing the company's risk mitigation capabilities [8].