Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2]. Core Insights - The new regulations on market value management are favoring state-owned enterprises (SOEs) with low valuations and stable operations. The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) has issued guidelines to enhance the value of SOEs through mergers and acquisitions, dividends, and governance improvements. The full implementation of market value management by SASAC in 2024 and the conclusion of the three-year action plan for SOE reform in 2025 are expected to invigorate the M&A market [2][57]. - SOEs can enhance operational efficiency, profitability, and dividend levels through market value management tools, creating a virtuous cycle from fundamentals to valuation. The report emphasizes the potential of environmental SOEs to drive transformation and vitality through various strategies such as mergers, buybacks, equity incentives, business transformation, and asset securitization [2][31][57]. - The environmental sector includes 10 central SOEs and 38 local SOEs, with some companies having strong asset backing, making them candidates for asset injection and group asset integration due to industry competition issues [2][31]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Environmental Central SOEs - Rolling Debt and Active Transformation - The report highlights the role of environmental central SOEs as key players in rolling debt strategies and active transformation, focusing on companies with significant market value declines and strong reform demands [31][32]. - Specific companies such as Zhongyuan Environmental Protection and Yuanda Environmental are mentioned for their potential asset injection and integration opportunities due to overlapping business with their parent groups [32][50]. Section 2: Key Company Analysis - Zhongjie Energy Group reported a revenue of 557 billion CNY and a net profit of 25.24 billion CNY in 2023, with a total asset value of 2803 billion CNY. The group operates in three main business segments: ecological environment, energy conservation, and green engineering [18]. - The report provides detailed financial metrics for key companies in the environmental sector, including Hanlan Environment, Guangda Environment, and Hongcheng Environment, all rated as "Buy" with specific target prices and earnings projections [21][22]. Section 3: Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - The report discusses the competitive landscape among environmental SOEs, highlighting the overlapping business operations and potential for consolidation. For instance, the water treatment capabilities of various groups are compared, revealing significant operational overlaps [50][51]. - The report also addresses the market's concerns regarding historical receivables from local governments and future payment capabilities, suggesting that recent debt restructuring policies may alleviate these concerns [2][31].

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|建筑材料 [Table_Title] 建筑材料行业 | --- | --- | |--------------------------|------------| | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 持有 | | 前次评级 | 持有 | | 报告日期 | 2024-12-29 | 证券研究报告 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]谢璐 021-38003688 分析师： 张乾 gzzhangqian@gf.com.cn 请注意，张乾并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册 持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 继续看好板块机会 [Table_PageText] 投资策略周报|建筑材料 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------|-----------|-------|-----------------|-- ...

[Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 [Table_Page] 投资策略周报|煤炭开采 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 重点公司：（1）盈利稳健高分红的动力煤公司：陕西煤业、中国神华 （A、H）；（2）估值较低且长期具备增量公司：兖矿能源（A、H）、新 集能源、中煤能源（A、H）；（3）受益于需求预期向好且 PB 较低的： 淮北矿业、平煤股份、山西焦煤、潞安环能、山煤国际、晋控煤业、华 阳股份、广汇能源、首钢资源等。 [分析师： Table_Author] 沈涛 分析师： 安鹏 anpeng@gf.com.cn 021-38003691 煤炭行业周报（2024 年第 50 期）:北港库存继续回落， 煤价趋势或改善，央企市值 管理工作要求加强 重点公司估值和财务分析表 投资策略周报|煤炭开采 识别风险，发现价值 投资策略周报|煤炭开采 图 4: 内蒙地区动力煤价格走势（元/吨）. 图 8: 秦皇岛港煤炭库存（万吨） 图 12: 重点电厂煤炭库存（万吨） 图 15: 秦港街地船舶数据（艘） 图 19: 山西地区焦精煤价格走势（元/吨） 图 23: 88 家样本炼焦演矿精煤库存(万吨) . 图 ...

布局领先 [Table_Contacts] [Table_Page] 投资策略周报|家用电器 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 复盘家电指数，绝大多数年份均跑赢沪深 300，一二四季度胜率较高。 根据 wind 数据，2005 年至今申万家电指数跑赢沪深 300 指数 15 次， 期间仅 2005、2006、2014、2018、2021 年跑输，对应二十年间跑赢 概率为 75%。季度特征来看，二十年间 Q1、Q2、Q3、Q4 申万家电 指数上涨次数分别为 12、11、10、14 次，跑赢沪深 300 指数次数分 别为 13、14、9、14 次，对应跑赢概率分别为 65%、70%、45%、 70%，即一二四季度均有较高历史胜率。 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [Table_Author] 分析师： 曾婵 SFC CE No. BNV293 | --- | |---------------| | | | | | 陈尧 | | | | SAC 执证号： | | 021-38003786 | Xml | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------- ...

2024 年 12 月 29 日 ⚫ 新增和终止研发项目。根据礼来公司官网披露的 2024Q3 演示材料，2024Q3 公司有三款新药项目新进入 I 期 研究：MAPT siRNA(LY3954068)、SMARCA2 变构抑制剂 LY4050784、SNCA siRNA(LY3962681)；终止三 款新药项目的临床研究：LY3875383(APOC3 siRNA)、IL-17 小分子抑制剂 DC-806、PD-1 激动剂 PERESOL IMAB。 ⚫ 投资建议。礼来在代谢领域、肿瘤、风湿免疫、遗传性疾病基因治疗等领域布局了多款在研项目，建议关注国 内相关创新药企业和创新产业链企业：恒瑞医药、翰森制药、科伦药业、人福医药、恩华药业、信达生物、百 利天恒-U、科伦博泰生物-B、百济神州-U、石药集团、东诚药业、先声药业、海思科、和黄医药、康诺亚-B、 荣昌生物、君实生物-U、兴齐眼药、信立泰、亚盛医药-B、众生药业、泽璟制药-U、艾迪药业、金斯瑞生物科 技、一品红、百奥泰、中国生物制药，药明康德、药明生物、康龙化成、皓元医药、普洛药业、九洲药业等。 ⚫ 风险提示。研发失败风险，药品审评进度不及预期，销售不及 ...

⚫ 基本金属：需求淡季，预计基本金属价格震荡。12 月以来，25 年美联 储降息预期下降，国内财政政策对 25 年内需支撑预期逐渐明晰，淡季 影响下，基本金属价格有所回调。25 年 1 月份的核心焦点在于美联储 25 年的降息预期变化，预计需求淡季持续，强成本与低库存共同支撑 基本金属价格震荡，静待宏观环境进一步改善。建议关注：洛阳钼业 （A+H）、西部矿业、金诚信、中国宏桥（H）、云铝股份、天山铝业等。 ⚫ 钢铁：本月供需稳定，需求淡季预期钢材价利平稳。据 Wind，供给端， 12 月钢厂盈利率下降 2.29 PCT 至 49.68%，低盈利率有望约束供给。 需求端，上海线螺采购平稳。未来宏观增量利好政策有望提升需求改善 预期。成本端，铁水增量有限压制成本上行空间。价利方面，需求淡季 预期价利平稳。关注未来宏观增量政策提振预期，建议关注：宝钢股 份、华菱钢铁、久立特材、甬金股份等。 ⚫ 贵金属：美国换届落地或带来预期变化，金价有望重启上行。本周公布 [Table_Page] 投资策略月报|有色金属 -20% -11% -2% 6% 15% 24% 12/23 03/24 05/24 08/24 10/24 ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|公用事业 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1 / 21 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------|-----------|-------|-----------------|-----------------|-------|--------------------------|--------------|----------------|---------------|---------|----------------------------|---------|----------------|-------| | 股票简称 | 股票代码 | 货币 | 最新 \n收盘价 | 最近 \n报告日期 | 评级 | 合理价值 \n（元 / 股） | EPS( \n2024E | 元 ) \n2025E | PE(x) \n2024E | \n2025E | EV/EBITDA(x) \n202 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy," indicating an expectation that stock performance will exceed the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [86]. Core Viewpoints - The average price of live pigs in December 2024 is 15.7 CNY/kg, down 4.8% month-on-month but up 8.8% year-on-year. The industry's profitability continues to decline, with expectations for a rebound in pig prices before the Spring Festival [180][106]. - The feed and animal health sectors are experiencing a recovery, driven by increased demand from the livestock sector. The prices of major raw materials have continued to decline, which may positively impact profitability [181]. - The pet food market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size of 158.5 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting an 8.5% year-on-year increase. Attention is drawn to domestic leading brands and their market share growth [64]. Summary by Sections Market Review - In December 2024, the agricultural and forestry sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 3.2 percentage points, with a decline of 0.4% in the sector compared to a 2.8% increase in the index [22][101]. Livestock Breeding - The average price of live pigs decreased by 5.0% in December 2024, while chicken prices fell by 1.0%. The industry is expected to see a rebound in prices as the peak slaughter period passes [124][180]. Bulk Raw Materials - The spot price of corn in December 2024 is approximately 2143 CNY/ton, down 3.3% month-on-month and down 17.9% year-on-year. The soybean meal price is around 2940 CNY/ton, down 4.5% month-on-month and down 26.1% year-on-year [40][154]. Agricultural Products Processing - The price of white sugar decreased by 1.9% in December 2024, while the price of natural rubber increased by 1.8% [140][161]. Aquatic Products - The price of shrimp increased by 2.5% in December 2024, while the average price of sea cucumbers rose by 30.8% [54][55]. Pet Food - In November 2024, the export volume of pet food increased by 0.3% month-on-month and by 13.9% year-on-year. The total export value for the first 11 months of 2024 reached 9.6 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 35.9% [34][167]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the livestock sector, such as Wens Foodstuffs Group and Muyuan Foods, as well as companies in the pet food sector like Guai Bao Pet Food and Zhongchong Co., Ltd. [180][64].

识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 10 / 18 数据来源：工信部，广发证券发展研究中心 图11：新兴业务分业务收入增速 数据来源：工信部，广发证券发展研究中心 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 2022 年7月 2022 年8月 2022 年9月 2022 年10月 2022 年11月 2022 年12月 2023 年1月 2023 年2月 2023 年3月 2023 年4月 2023 年5月 2023 年6月 2023 年7月 2023 年8月 2023 年9月 2023 年10月 2023 年11月 2023 年12月 2024 年1月 2024 年2月 2024 年3月 2024 年4月 2024 年5月 2024 年6月 2024 年7月 2024 年8月 2024 年9月 2024 年10月 2024 年11月 云计算业务收入增速 大数据业务收入增速 数据中心业务收入增速 物联网业务收入增速 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 11 / 18 为深入贯彻国家关于加快发展"人工智能+"的战略部署，落实《上海市促进人工智 能产业发展条例》，加快建 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|-------|--------|---------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | 内资净流入 外资净流入 | 资本净流入 | | | 内资净流入 | 外资净流入 资本净流入 | | 1,500 | | | | 1,500 | | | | | | | | 1,000 | | | | 1,000 | | | | 500 | | | | 500 | | | | 0 | | | | ...