Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Jinkong Coal (601001 SH) with a target price of 14 90 yuan and a current price of 12 79 yuan [3] Core Viewpoints - Jinkong Coal has initiated the acquisition of a coal exploration right with a designed capacity of 10 million tons per year marking a significant step in the integration of group assets [1][8] - The company has sufficient cash on hand to complete the acquisition with net cash of 12 5 billion yuan after deducting interest-bearing liabilities of 3 48 billion yuan [8] - Upon completion and operation of the Panjiayao Mine the company's controlled coal production capacity is expected to increase by 29% [8] - The company is a small but high-quality coal platform under the Jinneng Holding Group with strong profitability and potential for capacity growth benefiting from long-term group asset integration [8] - The company has no large ongoing projects resulting in low capital expenditure pressure and a gradually increasing dividend payout ratio (14 4% in 2021 34 6% in 2022 and 40 0% in 2023) [8] Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue is projected to decline slightly from 15 34 billion yuan in 2023 to 14 53 billion yuan in 2025 with a growth rate of -2 9% in 2025 [7] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decrease from 3 30 billion yuan in 2023 to 2 77 billion yuan in 2025 with a growth rate of -3 0% in 2025 [7] - EPS is forecasted to be 1 71 yuan in 2024 1 66 yuan in 2025 and 1 67 yuan in 2026 [7] - The P/E ratio is expected to rise from 6 25 in 2023 to 7 73 in 2025 [7] - ROE is projected to decline from 19 5% in 2023 to 13 7% in 2025 [7] Asset and Liability Overview - The company's total assets are expected to increase from 37 68 billion yuan in 2023 to 45 28 billion yuan in 2026 [10] - Net cash from operating activities is projected to be 4 67 billion yuan in 2024 and 4 87 billion yuan in 2026 [10] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio is expected to decrease from 35 3% in 2023 to 28 6% in 2026 indicating improved financial health [12] Valuation and Dividend Yield - Based on a 9x P/E ratio for 2025 the company's fair value is estimated at 14 90 yuan per share [8] - Assuming a 40% dividend payout ratio for 2024 the current market value corresponds to a dividend yield of 5 3% [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Buy" with a current price of HKD 380.00 and a fair value of HKD 478.52 [5][20]. Core Views - The report anticipates a strong performance in gaming, resilient advertising, and a recovery in financial services for Tencent in Q4 2024. The expected revenue for Q4 2024 is RMB 169.1 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 9% [9][20]. - The gaming revenue is projected to accelerate, with expectations of reaching RMB 46.6 billion in Q4 2024, a 14% year-over-year increase. Domestic gaming is expected to grow by 16% while overseas gaming revenue is projected to increase by 10% [9][20]. - The report maintains a positive outlook on Tencent's core business driven by product innovation and social media traffic, suggesting that the company can gradually release its commercialization potential through innovations like WeChat stores [9][20]. Summary by Sections Earnings Forecast - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast for Tencent from 2022 to 2026, with revenue expected to grow from RMB 5,546 million in 2022 to RMB 7,685 million in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.8% [4][20]. - Non-GAAP net profit is projected to increase from RMB 1,149 million in 2022 to RMB 2,775 million in 2026, with a significant growth rate of 45.3% in 2024 [4][20]. Financial Metrics - The report highlights key financial metrics, including an expected EPS of RMB 24.10 in 2024, with a P/E ratio of 14.5, and a projected ROE of 22.4% [4][20]. - The EBITDA is forecasted to grow from RMB 1,612 million in 2022 to RMB 3,379 million in 2026, indicating a strong operational performance [4][20]. Valuation - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, estimating the core business value at HKD 404 billion and the investment business value at HKD 37.23 billion, leading to a total fair value of HKD 478.52 per share [17][20]. - The gaming business is valued at HKD 189.74 per share based on an 18x P/E ratio, while the advertising business is valued at HKD 104.73 per share using a 27x P/E ratio [17][20].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 19.80 CNY and a fair value of 29.37 CNY [4]. Core Views - The company's revenue growth remains resilient, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7% for 2024, although this is a decline of 1.1 percentage points compared to the first three quarters of 2024. The net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 0.1% year-on-year, showing a recovery of 3.1 percentage points compared to the previous quarters [8]. - The company is expected to benefit from good growth in interest-earning assets, effective control of net interest margin decline, narrowing declines in fee income, stable investment income growth, and reasonable control of expenses [8]. - The asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.07%, unchanged from the previous year, and a provision coverage ratio of 237.78%, which has increased by 4.24 percentage points from the previous quarter [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, total assets and loans increased by 3.5% and 5.1% year-on-year, respectively. The company is expected to allocate a significant amount to investment-type assets in Q4 2024, with an estimated total asset increase of approximately 203.3 billion CNY [8]. - The company’s total liabilities and deposits grew by 2.9% and 7.7% year-on-year, respectively, with deposits contributing significantly to the increase [8]. Profitability Forecast - The company’s net profit growth is projected to be 1.28% and 1.73% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with earnings per share (EPS) expected to be 3.56 CNY and 3.62 CNY [8]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 5.56X and 5.46X for 2025 and 2026, respectively, and a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.50X and 0.47X for the same years [8]. Asset Quality - The company’s non-performing loan balance is projected to increase to 61.4 billion CNY by 2026, with a stable non-performing loan ratio expected to remain around 1.07% [8]. - The provision for loan losses is expected to increase, enhancing the company's risk mitigation capabilities [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a current price of 9.21 CNY and a fair value of 13.37 CNY [2]. Core Views - The company reported a slight decline in revenue for 2024, with total revenue of 4.395 billion CNY, down 3.3% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 3.02% to 307 million CNY [3]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 shows a positive turning point, with revenue of 1.472 billion CNY, up 1.63% year-on-year, and net profit of 145 million CNY, reflecting a significant increase of 35.72% [3]. - The company is expected to achieve faster growth in 2025 due to favorable domestic policies, brand momentum, and ongoing channel innovations [3]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2022: 3.899 billion CNY - 2023: 4.545 billion CNY - 2024E: 4.395 billion CNY - 2025E: 4.868 billion CNY - 2026E: 5.392 billion CNY - **Net Profit**: - 2022: 71 million CNY - 2023: 298 million CNY - 2024E: 307 million CNY - 2025E: 357 million CNY - 2026E: 435 million CNY - **EPS**: - 2022: 0.21 CNY - 2023: 0.86 CNY - 2024E: 0.88 CNY - 2025E: 1.03 CNY - 2026E: 1.25 CNY [2][3][4]. Growth Potential - The company is expected to benefit from a reversal in domestic policy and an improving consumer environment, alongside the strengthening of its online and offline channels [3]. - The TeenieWeenie brand is gaining traction, and the VGRASS brand reform is showing positive results, while the Yuanxian brand is expected to maintain high growth due to its cultural influence [3]. - The company plans to issue shares to its controlling shareholder, indicating confidence in future growth [3].

[Table_Page] 深度分析|食品饮料 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 出海系列 初探东南亚调味品市场 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2025-01-15 | [Ta 相对市场表现 ble_PicQuote] -24% -13% -2% 8% 19% 30% 01/24 03/24 06/24 08/24 11/24 01/25 食品饮料 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]符蓉 | | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260523120002 | | 021-38003552 | | furong@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 廖承帅 | | SAC 执证号：S0260524070009 | | 021-38003816 | | liaochengshuai@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 钱浩 | | SAC 执证号：S0260517080014 | | SFC CE No. BND274 | | 021-380 ...

[Table_Title] 多元金融行业 长尾信贷 AI 应用专题：海外借鉴与国内趋势 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： chenfu@gf.com.cn [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] | 多元金融行业:支付行业专题 | 2024-08-28 | | --- | --- | | 报告：境内及出海行业格局 | | | 多元金融行业:五项资本市场 | 2024-04-21 | | 对港合作措施，有望巩固香 | | | 港国际金融中心地位 | | [联系人： Table_Contacts]李怡华 021-38003811 liyihua@gf.com.cn 1 / 26 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 [Table_Page] 深度分析|多元金融 证券研究报告 | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2025-01-15 | 相对市场表现 [Table_PicQuote] [分析师： Table_Author]陈福 SAC 执证号：S0260517050001 SFC CE No. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 17.88 CNY and a reasonable value of 20.94 CNY [2]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in performance, with a forecasted net profit for 2024 ranging from 198 to 225 million CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 91.76% to 117.91% [7]. - The revenue from pet disposable hygiene products is projected to grow significantly, driven by an increase in market penetration and customer expansion [8]. - The company's gross margin is expected to improve, with a forecasted gross margin of 20% for 2024-2026, supported by favorable raw material prices and effective cost management [8]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to increase from 1,337 million CNY in 2023 to 1,779 million CNY in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 33% [6]. - The net profit is expected to rise from 103 million CNY in 2023 to 211 million CNY in 2024, indicating a growth rate of 104.2% [6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.56 CNY in 2023 to 1.14 CNY in 2024 [6]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from pet disposable hygiene products is expected to grow from 1,253 million CNY in 2023 to 1,678 million CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 34% [9]. - The overall revenue for the company is projected to reach 1,779 million CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 33% [9]. Valuation and Investment Recommendation - The company is assigned a reasonable valuation of 15x PE for 2025, leading to a target price of 20.94 CNY per share, maintaining a "Buy" rating [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a current price of 22.11 CNY and a fair value of 26.02 CNY [3]. Core Views - The company is undergoing a change in control, with the major shareholder, China Four Union Instrument Group, transferring 19.25% of its shares to China National Machinery Industry Corporation at a premium of 10% over the market price, aimed at optimizing state capital layout [7]. - The report forecasts the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 7.93 billion CNY, 8.91 billion CNY, and 10.36 billion CNY respectively, and assigns a 15x PE valuation for 2025, leading to a fair value estimate of 26.02 CNY per share [7]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company's revenue is projected to grow from 6,370 million CNY in 2022 to 10,212 million CNY by 2026, with growth rates of 16.1% in 2022, 16.3% in 2023, and 14.3% in both 2025 and 2026 [2][10]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit is expected to increase from 579 million CNY in 2022 to 1,036 million CNY in 2026, with a growth rate of 7.5% in 2022 and 28.4% in 2023 [2][10]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is projected to rise from 1.47 CNY in 2022 to 2.02 CNY in 2026 [2][10]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The report indicates a decrease in the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio from 21.29 in 2022 to 10.96 in 2026, suggesting an improving valuation over time [2][10]. Balance Sheet Overview - **Total Assets**: Expected to grow from 7,456 million CNY in 2022 to 11,549 million CNY by 2026 [8]. - **Total Liabilities**: Projected to increase from 4,034 million CNY in 2022 to 5,854 million CNY in 2026 [8]. - **Shareholder Equity**: Anticipated to rise from 3,409 million CNY in 2022 to 5,670 million CNY in 2026 [8]. Cash Flow Analysis - **Operating Cash Flow**: Expected to increase from 569 million CNY in 2022 to 924 million CNY in 2026 [8]. - **Net Cash Increase**: The net cash increase is projected to be negative in 2022 at -510 million CNY, turning positive in subsequent years, reaching 601 million CNY by 2026 [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 694.01 CNY and a fair value of 713.98 CNY [3]. Core Views - The company is expected to enter a phase of scale realization in Q4 2024, with significant revenue growth anticipated due to improved supply and demand dynamics [10][11]. - The company forecasts a substantial increase in revenue for 2024, with estimates ranging from 1.07 billion to 1.2 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 50.8% to 69.2% [10][11]. - The company is projected to achieve profitability in Q4 2024, with net profit estimates between 240 million to 330 million CNY, reflecting a net profit margin of 27.2% to 32.4% [12]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecast - Revenue for 2022 was 729 million CNY, with a slight decline to 709 million CNY in 2023. A significant increase is expected in 2024, with projected revenue of 1.136 billion CNY, followed by 3.507 billion CNY in 2025 and 5.942 billion CNY in 2026 [2][16]. - The company anticipates a return to profitability by 2025, with net profit estimates of 170 million CNY and 812 million CNY for 2025 and 2026, respectively [10][17]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to improve from -1.05 CNY in 2024 to 1.95 CNY in 2026 [2][17]. Business Segments - The cloud product line is expected to see a revenue growth rate of 333.3% in 2024, with a projected revenue of 392.4 million CNY, and further growth in subsequent years [14][16]. - The intelligent computing cluster system business is projected to grow at rates of 21.7% in 2024, 165.4% in 2025, and 59.7% in 2026, with a high gross margin of around 72% to 74% [14][16]. - The edge product line is expected to decline, with revenue projections of -36.1% in 2024, indicating a shift in strategic focus towards cloud products [14][16]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company is positioned favorably in the domestic AI chip market, benefiting from early commercialization and a growing demand for AI applications [19]. - Recent U.S. regulations limiting the export of high-end AI chips are expected to enhance the company's competitive position in the domestic market [12][19]. - The company is expected to capture a significant market share due to its established presence and the increasing demand for AI chips driven by advancements in AI technologies [19].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A/Buy-H" rating for the company, with a current price of 39.32 CNY / 30.85 HKD and a fair value of 44.13 CNY / 36.23 HKD [3]. Core Views - The company is expected to maintain stable growth across its various business segments in 2024, with a projected coal production increase of 0.8% year-on-year and a 5.2% increase in electricity generation [6]. - The company has a robust cash dividend policy, planning to maintain a cash dividend payout ratio of no less than 60% from 2022 to 2024, with actual payout ratios of 72.8% and 75.2% for 2022 and 2023 respectively, resulting in a current dividend yield of over 5% [6]. - The company’s coal, electricity, and transportation business models are expected to continue growing through internal projects and acquisitions [6]. Financial Performance Summary Revenue and Profitability - Revenue for 2022 was 344,533 million CNY, with a slight decline projected to 343,074 million CNY in 2023 and further to 338,994 million CNY in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of -0.4% and -1.2% respectively [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decrease from 69,648 million CNY in 2022 to 59,694 million CNY in 2023, with a projected net profit of 58,096 million CNY in 2024, indicating a decline of 14.3% and 2.7% respectively [2]. - The EPS is projected to be 3.00 CNY in 2023 and 2.92 CNY in 2024, with a P/E ratio increasing from 7.88 in 2022 to 10.43 in 2023 [2][9]. Operational Metrics - The company’s coal production is projected to reach 327 million tons in 2024, with sales expected to be 459 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [6]. - Total electricity generation is expected to be 2,232 billion kWh in 2024, with a 5.2% increase from the previous year [6]. Cash Flow and Financial Ratios - Operating cash flow is projected to decrease from 109,734 million CNY in 2022 to 89,687 million CNY in 2023, with a slight recovery expected in subsequent years [8]. - The company maintains a strong liquidity position, with a current ratio of 2.17 in 2023, expected to improve to 2.42 in 2024 [9]. Investment Recommendations - The report maintains the fair value estimates for the company's A-shares at 44.13 CNY and H-shares at 36.23 HKD, reiterating the "Buy" rating for both share classes [6].