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寒武纪:24Q4进入规模落地阶段、落地兑现符合产业规律
广发证券· 2025-01-15 11:23
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 694.01 CNY and a fair value of 713.98 CNY [3]. Core Views - The company is expected to enter a phase of scale realization in Q4 2024, with significant revenue growth anticipated due to improved supply and demand dynamics [10][11]. - The company forecasts a substantial increase in revenue for 2024, with estimates ranging from 1.07 billion to 1.2 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 50.8% to 69.2% [10][11]. - The company is projected to achieve profitability in Q4 2024, with net profit estimates between 240 million to 330 million CNY, reflecting a net profit margin of 27.2% to 32.4% [12]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecast - Revenue for 2022 was 729 million CNY, with a slight decline to 709 million CNY in 2023. A significant increase is expected in 2024, with projected revenue of 1.136 billion CNY, followed by 3.507 billion CNY in 2025 and 5.942 billion CNY in 2026 [2][16]. - The company anticipates a return to profitability by 2025, with net profit estimates of 170 million CNY and 812 million CNY for 2025 and 2026, respectively [10][17]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to improve from -1.05 CNY in 2024 to 1.95 CNY in 2026 [2][17]. Business Segments - The cloud product line is expected to see a revenue growth rate of 333.3% in 2024, with a projected revenue of 392.4 million CNY, and further growth in subsequent years [14][16]. - The intelligent computing cluster system business is projected to grow at rates of 21.7% in 2024, 165.4% in 2025, and 59.7% in 2026, with a high gross margin of around 72% to 74% [14][16]. - The edge product line is expected to decline, with revenue projections of -36.1% in 2024, indicating a shift in strategic focus towards cloud products [14][16]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company is positioned favorably in the domestic AI chip market, benefiting from early commercialization and a growing demand for AI applications [19]. - Recent U.S. regulations limiting the export of high-end AI chips are expected to enhance the company's competitive position in the domestic market [12][19]. - The company is expected to capture a significant market share due to its established presence and the increasing demand for AI chips driven by advancements in AI technologies [19].
中国神华:24年各项业务量平稳增长,能源龙头股息率具备优势
广发证券· 2025-01-15 11:22
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A/Buy-H" rating for the company, with a current price of 39.32 CNY / 30.85 HKD and a fair value of 44.13 CNY / 36.23 HKD [3]. Core Views - The company is expected to maintain stable growth across its various business segments in 2024, with a projected coal production increase of 0.8% year-on-year and a 5.2% increase in electricity generation [6]. - The company has a robust cash dividend policy, planning to maintain a cash dividend payout ratio of no less than 60% from 2022 to 2024, with actual payout ratios of 72.8% and 75.2% for 2022 and 2023 respectively, resulting in a current dividend yield of over 5% [6]. - The company’s coal, electricity, and transportation business models are expected to continue growing through internal projects and acquisitions [6]. Financial Performance Summary Revenue and Profitability - Revenue for 2022 was 344,533 million CNY, with a slight decline projected to 343,074 million CNY in 2023 and further to 338,994 million CNY in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of -0.4% and -1.2% respectively [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decrease from 69,648 million CNY in 2022 to 59,694 million CNY in 2023, with a projected net profit of 58,096 million CNY in 2024, indicating a decline of 14.3% and 2.7% respectively [2]. - The EPS is projected to be 3.00 CNY in 2023 and 2.92 CNY in 2024, with a P/E ratio increasing from 7.88 in 2022 to 10.43 in 2023 [2][9]. Operational Metrics - The company’s coal production is projected to reach 327 million tons in 2024, with sales expected to be 459 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [6]. - Total electricity generation is expected to be 2,232 billion kWh in 2024, with a 5.2% increase from the previous year [6]. Cash Flow and Financial Ratios - Operating cash flow is projected to decrease from 109,734 million CNY in 2022 to 89,687 million CNY in 2023, with a slight recovery expected in subsequent years [8]. - The company maintains a strong liquidity position, with a current ratio of 2.17 in 2023, expected to improve to 2.42 in 2024 [9]. Investment Recommendations - The report maintains the fair value estimates for the company's A-shares at 44.13 CNY and H-shares at 36.23 HKD, reiterating the "Buy" rating for both share classes [6].
中煤能源:24年全面完成生产计划,苇子沟和里必矿有望贡献增量
广发证券· 2025-01-15 09:31
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A/Buy-H" rating for the company, with a current price of 11.44 RMB and a reasonable value of 14.18 RMB for A-shares, and 8.83 HKD with a reasonable value of 10.46 HKD for H-shares [3]. Core Views - The company is expected to fully complete its production plan for 2024, with the Weizigou and Libi mines anticipated to contribute additional output starting in 2025. The company has a robust resource reserve and potential for both organic and external growth [8]. Financial Summary - **Revenue**: The company's revenue is projected to decline from 220,577 million RMB in 2022 to 188,572 million RMB in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of -8.0% in 2022 and -12.5% in 2023, with a slight recovery expected in 2026 at 3.6% [7][11]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decrease from 18,259 million RMB in 2022 to 18,215 million RMB in 2024, with a growth rate of 32.9% in 2022 and a modest 0.6% in 2025 [7][11]. - **EPS**: Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.38 RMB in 2022, 1.47 RMB in 2023, and 1.37 RMB in 2024, with a gradual increase to 1.43 RMB by 2026 [7][11]. - **EBITDA**: The EBITDA is projected to decline from 51,143 million RMB in 2022 to 42,656 million RMB in 2024, with a slight recovery expected thereafter [7][11]. Production and Sales Data - **Coal Production**: The company is expected to produce 138 million tons of commercial coal in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. The total coal sales are projected to be 285 million tons, with a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year [8]. - **Chemical Production**: The chemical product output is expected to be 5.69 million tons in 2024, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%. However, Q4 production is expected to show a positive trend with a 4.9% increase year-on-year [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the company's medium to long-term growth will primarily come from the remaining under-construction mines and the expansion of high-quality mine capacities, alongside the completion of certain coal chemical projects. The company is expected to maintain its "Buy" rating for both A and H shares [8].
中航光电:液冷助力AI赋能,看好公司连接器供应商龙头地位
广发证券· 2025-01-15 09:31
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [2] Core Views - The report highlights the company's leading position as a connector supplier, driven by innovations in liquid cooling technology that support AI applications [7][9] - The company is expected to see a continuous improvement in its earnings per share (EPS), projected at 1.65, 1.95, and 2.36 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [9] - The reasonable value of the company's stock is maintained at 50.58 CNY, corresponding to a 26 times price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 [9] Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 20,074 million CNY in 2023 to 31,183 million CNY in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.5% [8] - EBITDA is expected to increase from 3,819 million CNY in 2023 to 6,257 million CNY in 2026 [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 3,339 million CNY in 2023 to 5,000 million CNY in 2026, with a growth rate of 21.1% [8] - The company's P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 24.13 in 2023 to 16.14 in 2026, indicating improving valuation metrics [8][12] Market Performance - The company has shown a relative performance of -9%, 2%, 13%, 24%, 35%, and 46% against the CSI 300 index from January to November 2024 [4]
微创脑科学:公司24年预期盈利水平稳健增长
广发证券· 2025-01-15 08:22
Investment Rating - Buy rating with a target price of HKD 11.30 [8] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve steady profit growth in 2024, driven by increased hospital coverage, market share expansion, and overseas revenue doubling [8] - Core products are accelerating their entry into hospitals, with new products enriching the product line [8] - The company's adjusted net profit CAGR from 2020 to 2024 is approximately 55% [8] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 547 million in 2022 to RMB 1,550 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 30.1% from 2024 to 2026 [3] - EBITDA is expected to increase from RMB 145 million in 2022 to RMB 596 million in 2026 [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to rise from RMB -22 million in 2022 to RMB 447 million in 2026 [3] - EPS is projected to grow from RMB -0.04 in 2022 to RMB 0.76 in 2026 [3] Product Performance - The company's products supported 190,000 neurointerventional surgeries in the first half of 2024 [8] - NUMEN® coils entered 240 new hospitals, Tubridge® stents entered 80 new hospitals, and WILLIS® covered stents entered 30 new hospitals [8] - Bridge® vertebral artery drug stents entered 230 new hospitals, and APOLLO™ intracranial stents entered nearly 120 new hospitals [8] - Neurohawk® thrombectomy stents entered over 150 new hospitals [8] Valuation Metrics - The P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 18.4 in 2024 to 10.0 in 2026 [3] - The EV/EBITDA ratio is projected to decline from 10.2 in 2024 to 4.3 in 2026 [3] - ROE is forecasted to increase from -1.7% in 2022 to 16.7% in 2026 [3] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - Total assets are expected to grow from RMB 1,817 million in 2022 to RMB 3,180 million in 2026 [9] - Cash and cash equivalents are projected to increase from RMB 828 million in 2022 to RMB 2,042 million in 2026 [9] - Operating cash flow is forecasted to rise from RMB 224 million in 2022 to RMB 555 million in 2026 [9] Key Financial Ratios - Gross margin is expected to remain stable, ranging from 73.0% to 75.0% from 2024 to 2026 [10] - Net margin is projected to increase from -4.5% in 2022 to 28.8% in 2026 [10] - The current ratio is forecasted to improve from 5.3 in 2022 to 8.7 in 2026 [10]
招商银行:非息增长与拨备回补推动四季度触底回升
广发证券· 2025-01-15 08:20
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A/Buy-H" rating for the company, with a current price of 39.85 CNY/39.90 HKD and a fair value of 55.63 CNY/55.70 HKD [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that non-interest income growth and provisioning recovery are driving a rebound in Q4, with a year-on-year revenue growth of -0.47% for 2024, which is an improvement of 2.4 percentage points compared to the first three quarters of 2024 [8]. - The bank's total assets and loan amounts increased by 10.2% and 5.8% year-on-year, respectively, indicating accelerated scale expansion [8]. - Asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.95%, unchanged from the previous year, and a provisioning coverage ratio of 411.98%, although it has decreased from previous quarters [8]. - The report forecasts a net profit growth of 5.56% and 6.43% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with earnings per share (EPS) projected at 6.03 CNY and 6.43 CNY [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the bank's revenue and net profit grew by 7.59% and 7.63% year-on-year, respectively, with significant contributions from non-interest income, which rose by 16.6% [8]. - The total liabilities and deposits increased by 9.8% and 11.5% year-on-year, respectively, with deposits accounting for 83.3% of total liabilities [8]. Asset Quality - The NPL ratio remained stable at 0.95%, with a total NPL amount increasing by 1.9 billion CNY in Q4 2024, while the cumulative NPL amount for the year increased by 3.6 billion CNY [8]. - The provisioning coverage ratio decreased by 20.17 percentage points from the previous quarter but remains at a high level, indicating sufficient risk coverage [8]. Profitability and Valuation - The report projects a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 6.61X for 2024 and 6.20X for 2025, with a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.89X and 0.81X for the same years [8]. - The bank's return on equity (ROE) remains high, supporting its ability to generate internal capital [8].
休闲食品行业行业专题研究:2025年“新渠道”有何看点?
广发证券· 2025-01-15 08:17
[Table_Page] 行业专题研究|休闲食品 2025 年 1 月 14 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 休闲食品行业 | | | | 2025 | 年"新渠道"有何看点? | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 分析师: [Tabl | 符蓉 | 分析师: | 胡慧 | 分析师: | 钱浩 | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号:S0260523120002 | | SAC 执证号:S0260524020002 | | SAC 执证号:S0260517080014 | | | | | | | SFC CE.no: BND274 | | | 021-38003552 | | | | 021-38003634 | | | furong@gf.com.cn | | huhui@gf.com.cn | | shqianhao@gf.com.cn | | | 请注意,符蓉,胡慧并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人,不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | | | | | [Table_Summary] 核心观点: 相关研究 [Table_Repo ...
恺英网络:新品储备丰富,IP实力强劲
广发证券· 2025-01-15 04:50
Investment Rating - Buy rating with a target price of 15.83 CNY [4] Core Views - The company has a rich pipeline of new products and strong IP capabilities, which are expected to drive future growth [2][9] - The company is expanding its game genres beyond its traditional MMO focus, which could help break through its growth ceiling [9] - The company's IP portfolio includes well-known titles such as "Dragon Nest," "Legend," "Digimon," and "Tomb Raider," which are expected to boost product launches [9] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 3,726 million CNY in 2022 to 7,199 million CNY in 2026, with a CAGR of 17.8% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 1,025 million CNY in 2022 to 2,374 million CNY in 2026, with a CAGR of 18.3% [3] - EPS is forecasted to rise from 0.49 CNY in 2022 to 1.10 CNY in 2026 [3] - ROE is expected to remain strong, ranging from 22.9% in 2022 to 25.0% in 2026 [3] Product Pipeline - The company has announced 22 new products across four categories: "Classic Continuation," "Fantasy Adventure," "Chinese Martial Arts," and "Casual Games" [9][10] - Key IPs include "Dragon Nest: World," "Legend 2," "Digimon: Source Code," and "Tomb Raider: Journey" [9][10] - The company is diversifying its game genres, including ARPG, SLG, and casual games, which could enhance its market position [9] Financial Ratios - The company maintains a high gross margin, projected to be around 82% from 2024 to 2026 [13] - The net profit margin is expected to remain stable at around 31-33% from 2024 to 2026 [13] - The P/E ratio is forecasted to decline from 13.39 in 2022 to 11.64 in 2026, indicating potential undervaluation [3][13] Market Performance - The company's stock has shown strong relative performance compared to the CSI 300 index, with significant outperformance in recent periods [6]
银行:12月金融数据点评:财政大幅发力,社融见底回升
广发证券· 2025-01-15 04:46
[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|银行 证券研究报告 | | | 财政大幅发力,社融见底回升 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师: Table_Author]倪军 -4% 4% 11% 19% 26% 34% 01/24 03/24 06/24 08/24 11/24 01/25 银行 沪深300 | | SAC 执证号:S0260518020004 | | --- | --- | | | 021-38003646 | | | nijun@gf.com.cn | | 分析师: | 许洁 | | | SAC 执证号:S0260518080004 | | | SFC CE No. BNU965 | | | 021-38003625 | | | xujie@gf.com.cn | 请注意,倪军并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册 持牌人,不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | DocReport] [Table_ 相关研究: | | | --- | --- | | 银行行业:央行调整跨境融资 | 2025-01-13 | | 参数点评 | | | 银行行 ...
风电设备行业跟踪:海风持续性超预期,高装机带来盈利修复
广发证券· 2025-01-15 04:46
[Table_Page] 深度分析|专用设备 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: 证券研究报告 | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2025-01-14 | [Table_Title] 风电设备行业跟踪 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 海风持续性超预期,高装机带来盈利修复 -30% -18% -6% 6% 18% 30% 01/24 03/24 06/24 08/24 10/24 01/25 专用设备 沪深300 | [分析师: Table_Author]代川 | SAC 执证号:S0260517080007 | | | --- | --- | --- | | SFC CE No. BOS186 | 021-38003678 | | | daichuan@gf.com.cn | 分析师: | 孙柏阳 | | SAC 执证号:S0260520080002 | 021-38003680 | | | sunboyang@gf.com.cn | 分析师: | 王宁 | | SAC 执证号:S02605 ...