[Table_Page] 跟踪研究|软件与服务 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 【广发计算机&海外】金山云（03896.HK） 前瞻：预计25Q4 AI云高增长，26年延续高资本开支 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 盈利预测：备注：报告中汇率为 1 港元=0.893 人民币；货币若无特别说明均为人民币。 | [Table_ 单位:Finance] 人民币百万元 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 7,047 | 7,785 | 9,481 | 12,215 | 14,687 | | 增长率 （ % ） | -13.8% | 10.5% | 21.8% | 28.8% | 20.2% | | 经调整EBITDA（百万元） | -265 | 639 | 2,292 | 4,072 | 5,657 | | 经调整净利润（百万元） | -1,291 | -825 | -567 | -519 | -387 | | EPS（元/股） | -0.61 ...

- The report introduces a quantitative model based on Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) to analyze price-volume data and predict future prices. The model standardizes price-volume data into graphical representations and maps learned features to industry theme indices, such as the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, CSI Subdivision Chemical Industry Theme Index, CSI Machine Tool Index, CSI Semiconductor Material Equipment Theme Index, and CSI Nonferrous Metals Index[78][80][81] - The construction process of the CNN model involves transforming individual stock price-volume data within a specific window into standardized graphical charts. These charts are then input into the CNN for feature extraction and prediction modeling. The learned features are subsequently applied to identify and allocate industry themes[78][80] - The evaluation of the CNN model highlights its ability to capture complex patterns in price-volume data and effectively map these patterns to industry themes. This approach provides a novel perspective for quantitative investment strategies[78][81] - Backtesting results indicate that the CNN model's latest configuration suggests a focus on themes such as petrochemicals, chemicals, machine tools, semiconductors, and nonferrous metals. Specific indices include the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, CSI Subdivision Chemical Industry Theme Index, CSI Machine Tool Index, CSI Semiconductor Material Equipment Theme Index, and CSI Nonferrous Metals Index[80][81]

Core Insights - The coal industry is experiencing a slight increase in coking coal prices while thermal coal inventories continue to decline, indicating a potential stabilization in prices moving forward [7][85][87]. Market Dynamics - Thermal coal prices have shown a slight decrease, with the CCI5500 thermal coal index reported at 691 RMB/ton, down 11 RMB/ton week-on-week [13][86]. - The production capacity utilization rate for thermal coal mines is at 89.8%, reflecting a 1.2 percentage point increase week-on-week [23]. - Inventory levels at major ports have decreased, with a reported 6.939 million tons, down 2.4% week-on-week [23][30]. Industry Outlook - The coal industry is expected to see a significant improvement in profitability in 2026, with a projected total profit of 2.97 billion RMB in 2025, down 47% year-on-year [7][87]. - The supply side is anticipated to experience a substantial decrease in growth rates compared to previous years, with coal prices expected to gradually rise [7][87]. - The long-term contracts for coal supply in 2026 are expected to remain stable, with stricter safety regulations likely to limit production [88][89]. Key Companies - Notable companies with stable profit distributions include China Shenhua, Yanzhou Coal, and Shaanxi Coal, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated demand recovery and supply constraints [7][87]. - Companies with high elasticity benefiting from improved demand expectations include Huabei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal [7][87]. - Long-term growth companies identified include Huayang Co., New Energy, and Baofeng Energy, which are expected to show significant growth potential [7][87].

Core Insights - The report highlights that the short-term changes in broad-based ETF shares are impacting weighted stocks, while long-term regulatory changes are constraining deviations in benchmarks [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 24, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.84%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.11%. The CSI 300 Index fell by 0.62%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.34% [10]. - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.80 trillion yuan, reflecting a 19% decrease compared to the previous period [5]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics and Weekly Commentary Insurance Sector - The performance of listed insurance companies is expected to continue high growth, with marginal improvements in long-term interest spreads. The 10-year government bond yield was 1.83%, down 1 basis point from the previous week, indicating a stable economic outlook [11][14]. - The insurance sector is benefiting from regulatory changes that enhance asset-liability management capabilities, which are expected to support high growth in 2026. Key stocks to watch include China Ping An, China Life, and New China Life [14][15]. Securities Sector - The report notes a significant decline in broad-based ETF shares, with the CSI 1000 dropping by 42%, the SSE 50 by 25%, and the CSI 300 by 23%. This decline is expected to have a direct impact on the trading volumes of associated leading stocks [15][19]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has introduced new guidelines for public fund performance benchmarks, effective March 1, 2026, aimed at enhancing stability and protecting investor interests [24][28]. Group 3: Key Company Valuations and Financial Analysis - China Ping An (601318.SH) has a current price of 68.40 CNY, with a target value of 85.17 CNY, indicating a buy rating. The expected EPS for 2025 is 8.91 CNY, with a PE ratio of 7.68x [6]. - New China Life (601336.SH) is rated as a buy with a target value of 94.21 CNY, and an expected EPS of 14.04 CNY for 2025, reflecting a PE ratio of 4.96x [6]. - China Pacific Insurance (601601.SH) is also rated as a buy, with a target value of 52.44 CNY and an expected EPS of 6.09 CNY for 2025, resulting in a PE ratio of 6.88x [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Buy" rating for the real estate industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with a notable increase in second-hand home subscriptions and a strengthening of transaction confidence [7][15]. - The average daily subscription for second-hand homes in 79 cities reached 3,404 units from January 1 to January 22, 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.1% compared to the same period in 2025 [16][27]. - The report highlights that the market is experiencing a self-driven recovery without significant large-scale stimulus policies being implemented [16]. Summary by Sections 1. Second-Hand Homes: Significant Growth in Subscriptions and Record High Conversion Rates - Overall transactions show a recovery in lower-tier cities, although this has not yet fully translated into net signing [15]. - In key cities, second-hand home subscriptions in first-tier cities like Guangzhou are relatively stable, while many lower-tier cities are experiencing growth [31]. - The conversion rate of visits to transactions has reached a new high, with a 5.6% conversion rate in 70 cities, up from the previous quarter [35]. 2. New Homes: Low Net Signing Levels Across All Tiers - The average daily net signing for new homes in 45 cities was 250,000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 42.1% [29]. - All tiers of cities are experiencing varying degrees of decline in new home net signing, with first-tier cities seeing the most significant drops [29]. 3. Price Trends and Market Dynamics - As of January 22, 2026, the average price of second-hand homes in 33 cities has decreased by 17.9% year-on-year compared to 2025 [41]. - The report indicates that the price adjustments in lower-tier cities are more pronounced, aligning closer to residents' psychological expectations, which has led to increased subscriptions [42]. - The report notes a decline in the number of second-hand listings, particularly in key cities, due to factors such as the removal of ineffective listings by agents and homeowners withdrawing listings amid falling prices [41].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 77.05 HKD and a target value of 102.81 HKD [4]. Core Insights - In Q4 2025, the main brand of the company faced pressure, while the FILA brand showed signs of recovery, and other brands maintained high growth rates. The main brand's retail sales experienced a low single-digit decline year-on-year, whereas FILA's retail sales grew in the mid-single digits. Other brands saw retail sales growth of 35-40% year-on-year [8]. - The company is expected to maintain steady growth in 2026, driven by the "Lighthouse Plan," continuous store renovations, and new business models. The FILA brand is anticipated to continue its growth momentum, while other brands are expected to sustain rapid growth despite increasing competition [8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are 4.70, 5.12, and 5.79 CNY, respectively. The company is assigned a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18 times for 2026, leading to a reasonable value of 102.81 HKD per share [8]. Financial Summary - Main revenue is projected to grow from 62,356 million CNY in 2023 to 94,684 million CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 16.2%, 13.6%, 9.4%, 10.0%, and 11.1% respectively [2]. - EBITDA is expected to increase from 19,708 million CNY in 2023 to 29,797 million CNY in 2027 [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to rise from 10,236 million CNY in 2023 to 16,198 million CNY in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 34.9% in 2023 followed by a 52.4% increase in 2024 [2]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 19.9% in 2023, peaking at 25.3% in 2024, and stabilizing around 19.4% to 19.8% in the following years [2].

[Table_Page] 金融工程|量化投资专题 2026 年 1 月 23 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 业绩预告与行业表现呈现分化 量化基本面系列之三 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： （如无特别说明，本文数据均来源于 wind，数据截至 2026/01/23） 2025 年业绩预告披露类型 | 业绩预告类型 | 公司数量 | 占比 | | --- | --- | --- | | 不确定 | 5 | 0.7% | | 扭亏 | 58 | 8.1% | | 略减 | 17 | 2.4% | | 略增 | 45 | 6.3% | | 续亏 | 247 | 34.4% | | 续盈 | 6 | 0.8% | | 预减 | 64 | 8.9% | | 预增 | 180 | 25.1% | | 首亏 | 95 | 13.2% | | 积极 | 289 | 40.3% | 数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心 2025 年业绩预告/快报/正式财报 | | 业绩预告/快报/ | 业绩预告/快报/ | 归母净利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 申万一级行业 | ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that SpaceX and Tesla plan to build a total of 200GW of photovoltaic capacity in the U.S. over the next three years, primarily for ground data centers and space AI satellites [6] - The advantages of space computing centers are emphasized, including better convenience and real-time service compared to ground data processing, as well as significant cost reductions in communication infrastructure [6] - The report predicts that global photovoltaic demand will continue to grow, with an expected 580GW of new installations in 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 6%. The total global photovoltaic demand is projected to reach 645GW, a year-on-year growth of 18.6% [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the emergence of new demand in the photovoltaic industry driven by space photovoltaic technology [1] Key Developments - Space photovoltaic technology is being developed in China, with three generations of solar battery technology tailored for different spacecraft, achieving international advanced performance levels [6] - Several domestic companies are accelerating their investments in space photovoltaic technology, including partnerships for the production of combined products [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that have established early advantages in space photovoltaic layouts, such as Junda Co., Oriental Sunrise, JinkoSolar, Longi Green Energy, Foster, and others [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [4] Core Insights - The report indicates that the construction industry continues to experience a low allocation in public funds, with a slight increase in heavy positions in Q4 2025. The total market value of the SW construction decoration sector rose to 1,845.9 billion CNY, a 2% increase quarter-on-quarter, accounting for 1.50% of the A-share market value [15][19] - The report highlights a shift in public fund allocations towards the decoration and other specialized engineering sectors, with significant increases in heavy positions for these sub-sectors [19][31] - Key companies in the sector include China State Construction, Honglu Steel Structure, Shanghai Port, Jianghe Group, and Yaxiang Integration, with notable changes in their heavy positions [44] Summary by Sections Section 1: Q4 2025 Construction Industry Allocation - The heavy stock allocation in the construction industry increased quarter-on-quarter, with the total market value of SW construction decoration reaching 1,845.9 billion CNY, a 2% increase [15][19] - The heavy stock allocation ratio for public funds in the construction decoration sector was 0.37%, up by 0.01 percentage points from the previous quarter [15][19] Section 2: Sub-sector Analysis - The report notes an increase in public fund heavy positions in the decoration and other specialized engineering sectors, while the housing construction and municipal engineering sectors saw a decrease [19][30] - The decoration sector's heavy position ratio rose to 0.029%, an increase of 0.017 percentage points, primarily due to increased holdings in Jianghe Group [31][40] Section 3: Individual Company Analysis - The top five companies by heavy stock value are China State Construction (19.64 billion CNY), Honglu Steel Structure (12.17 billion CNY), Shanghai Port (8.86 billion CNY), Jianghe Group (5.59 billion CNY), and Yaxiang Integration (4.25 billion CNY) [44] - Significant changes in heavy positions include a 485.4% increase for Shanghai Port and a 134.3% increase for Jianghe Group [44] Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on four key areas: technology (cleanroom sector), safety (industrial and nuclear power module manufacturers), overseas expansion (China National Materials and China Steel International), and undervalued state-owned enterprises in favorable regions [46]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of 127 regional banks in Jiangsu Province, highlighting their asset and liability structures, profitability, and asset quality [6][18] - Jiangsu's regional banks have shown a significant increase in asset growth, with major city commercial banks growing at 19.4%, surpassing the growth of listed city commercial banks at 14.2% [24][26] - The report indicates that the loan-to-asset ratio for city commercial banks is projected to reach 48.4% in 2024, reflecting a gradual increase in lending activities [30] - Jiangsu's regional banks exhibit better return on assets (ROA) compared to listed banks, with city commercial banks outperforming by 16 basis points and rural commercial banks by 9 basis points [6][42] - The asset quality of Jiangsu's regional banks is superior to that of listed banks, with lower non-performing loan ratios and higher provision coverage ratios [6][42] Summary by Sections 1. Economic Structure of Jiangsu Province - Jiangsu Province is focusing on new industrialization and strategic emerging industries, with significant contributions from cities like Nanjing and Suzhou [13][14] 2. Overview of 127 Regional Banks in Jiangsu - The report categorizes the banks into city commercial banks, rural commercial banks, and others, with a total of 127 banks established between 2006 and 2015 [18][20] 3. Asset/Liability Structure - The asset growth of major city commercial banks is accelerating, while rural commercial banks are experiencing a decline in growth rates [24][26] - The loan-to-asset ratio for city commercial banks is expected to increase to 48.4% by 2024, indicating a shift towards more lending [30] 4. Profitability - Jiangsu's regional banks have a higher ROA compared to listed banks, with city commercial banks showing a 16 basis point advantage [6][42] 5. Asset Quality/Capital Levels - Jiangsu's regional banks maintain a lower non-performing loan ratio compared to listed banks, with city commercial banks having a 30 basis point lower ratio [6][42]