[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|建筑装饰 证券研究报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

[Table_Contacts] [Table_Title] 建筑材料行业 政策定调积极，继续看好板块机会 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 12 月政治局会议和中央经济工作会议定调积极，"稳楼市"、"加强超 常规逆周期调节"、"适度宽松的货币政策"，从当前到明年两会前的重 大政策空窗期内，宽松的货币环境和积极的财政预期形成较强支撑， 更多的增量政策也有望跟进，有利于后续基本面企稳，我们继续看好 建材板块的投资机会。当前建材行业景气仍在左侧，但考虑到各板块 陆续筑底（水泥玻璃盈利底部震荡，消费建材收入和利润承压），且在 行业底部龙头经历了压力测试、经营韧性十足，如二手房和存量房翻 新需求支撑下零售建材韧性强、周期建材龙头在底部仍有显著的超额 利润。建议关注成长性较强、估值弹性大的消费建材板块，和盈利处 于底部、供给端出现积极变化的水泥玻璃龙头，以及玻纤龙头底部配 置机会，和部分结构性景气赛道（药玻、风电等）。 ⚫ 消费建材：政策持续发力，龙头经营韧性强。消费建材长期需求稳定 性好、行业集中度持续提升、竞争格局好的优质细分龙头中长期成长 空间仍然很大。下游地产仍在寻底，新开工面积预计已回落至中期较 ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|公用事业 证券研究报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

[Table_Contacts] Xml 家用电器行业 [Table_Title] 重磅会议强调提振消费，11 月家电出口增长较好 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 重磅会议再次强调提振消费。（1）政治局会议：会议提出要实施更加 积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策及加强超常规逆周期调节，要 大力提振消费、提高投资效益，全方位扩大国内需求。（2）中央经济 工作会议：大力提振消费扩内需被放在明年九项重点工作之首，作为 对比，去年首项是"以科技创新引领现代化产业体系建设"，足见此 次对居民端政策的重视，相关提法包括"促进居民收入增长和经济增 长同步"，"着力提振内需，特别是居民消费需求"，"实施提振消 费专项行动"，"推动中低收入群体增收减负，提升消费能力、意愿 和层级"。 ⚫ 11 月家电出口保持较好增长。根据海关总署数据，（1）人民币口径： 11 月中国出口金额同比+5.8%（增速环比-5.4pct），1-11 月累计同比 +6.7%。其中家电出口金额同比+9.1%（增速环比-12.1pct），1-11 月 累计同比+15.5%。（2）美元口径：11 月中国出口金额同比+6.7%（增 速环比-6. ...

（A/H）、中国人寿（A/H）、中国太平（H）、中国平安（A/H）、中 [Table_Contacts] 国财险（H）、新华保险（A/H）、友邦保险（H）。 资产端量价稳步上行、负债端成本有望下行的中银航空租赁。 [Table_Page] 投资策略周报|非银金融 证券研究报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [4] Core Insights - Policy stimulus boosts confidence and market sentiment is recovering. The recent Central Economic Work Conference prioritized "boosting consumption, improving investment efficiency, and expanding domestic demand," leading to various local dining consumption policies that are expected to release further potential in the dining sector. Supply chain companies in the dining industry play a crucial role in linking upstream and downstream, and improvements in domestic demand will have a significant impact on them, likely following a path of "short-term volume increase - mid-term efficiency optimization - long-term structural upgrade" [1][24][50] - The dining industry is undergoing structural adjustments, presenting new opportunities in the supply chain. Over the past decade, the dining industry has experienced rapid growth, branding, and chain development. However, in 2023, factors such as slow recovery in consumer demand and economic cycle changes have led to a slowdown in overall dining scale growth, creating new competitive dynamics. The industry is currently at a cyclical low point, but policy stimulus is expected to bring new opportunities [1][24][34] Monthly Focus - The dining market is showing signs of recovery, with policy stimulus enhancing consumer confidence. The issuance of consumption vouchers has a multiplier effect, significantly boosting dining consumption. For instance, during the issuance period in Shanghai, offline dining consumption increased by 11.4% year-on-year [25][26][28] - The dining supply chain companies are expected to benefit directly from the recovery of dining enterprises, with short inventory cycles and high turnover efficiency allowing for quick order responses [50] Market Review - In November, the food and beverage sector outperformed the market by 1.7 percentage points, with a 2.4% increase in the sector overall. The sub-sectors of leisure food and non-liquor beverages saw significant gains, while the liquor sector experienced smaller increases [2][97] - The valuation of the food and beverage sector is at historical lows, with the PE (ttm) at 21.62X, in the 17th percentile since 2010, and the PB (lf) at 4.57X, in the 33rd percentile since 2010 [114] Fundamental Tracking - The overall retail sales in November increased by 3.0% year-on-year, with essential consumer goods showing varied performance. The food and beverage retail sales saw a 10.1% increase for grain and oil products, while beverage sales declined by 4.3% [124] - The liquor industry entered its off-season in November, with prices showing slight recovery. The average price of high-end liquor has increased, indicating potential for recovery in the sector [131] Investment Recommendations - For the liquor sector, companies like Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Gujing Gongjiu are core recommendations, while attention should be given to leading companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye for their allocation value. In the consumer goods sector, companies such as Tianwei Food, Angel Yeast, and Yili Group are recommended, with a focus on their competitive landscape and product channel expansion [152]

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|房地产 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 房地产行业:24 年 11 月 REITs 月报 提高定期报告披露要求，行情平稳 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 11 月加强 REITs 定期报告披露要求。沪深交易所 11 月 29 日发布业 务指引，提高经营指标及经营情况的披露标准，各类资产须按照指定指 标披露经营情况且计算口径不得随意变更，须披露周边新增竞争性项 目对基金份额持有人权益的影响；项目公司重要资产负债指标需在季 报中披露；加强对非经常性损益进行分析（如减值、公允价值变动、资 本性支出等）；更加重视对可分配金额变化及兑现情况的分析；首次提 及投资性房地产可转化为公允价值模式计量。11 月 8 日，香港特区政 府豁免 REITs 转让和经销业务的印花税，降低香港 REITs 交易成本。 基础设施行业政策方面，养老、大宗商品储运、新型城市基建项目、冰 雪经济领域基础设施纳入试点。 常态化发行逐步落地，项目申报数量和规模有所上升。根据沪深交易 所的 REITs 项目动态，11 月共 6 单受理项目（较 10 月增加 5 单）， 评估价值 99.08 亿 ...

[Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2024-12-15 2024-12-08 [Table_Page] 投资策略周报|煤炭开采 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 煤炭行业周报（2024 年第 49 期） 沿海电厂日耗恢复至同期，北港库存继续回落，煤价趋势或改善 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 近期市场动态：煤价总体弱势，旺季电厂日耗延续回升，北港库存压 力持续缓解。根据汾渭能源，动力煤方面，CCI5500 动力煤价格指数 下跌 19 元/吨至 799 元/吨。本周国内港口动力煤价下跌约 20 元/吨， 各主产地煤价也有不同程度下跌，目前低卡市场煤价已经低于长协煤 价上限，不过好的方面在于随着各地气温进一步下降，电厂日耗延续回 升，北方港口库存压力也在逐步缓解。后期，12 月下旬随着各地气温 进一步下降，电煤需求有望持续好转，库存压力缓解后预计煤价有望企 稳回升。焦煤方面，本周国内港口主焦煤价保持平稳，产地市场稳中有 降。需求端，10 月中旬以来焦炭已连续落地四轮提降，钢材终端需求 减弱，焦煤价格也受到制约，下游依旧以消极采购为主，不过近期有补 库意愿 ...

年投资策略:库存周期续航， 黄金续创新高 [Table_Title] 金属及金属新材料行业 黄金继续稳步上行 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 基本金属：美联储降息与国内经济增量政策共筑需求底部，预计基本 金属价格震荡。美联储年内降息预期继续上升，国内期待 2025 年更加 积极的财政政策落地，支撑内需进一步回升，工业金属矿山供给较弱， 电解铝成本高企，预计淡季工业金属价格震荡。建议关注：洛阳钼业 （A+H）、西部矿业、金诚信、中国铝业（A+H）、云铝股份、天山铝 业、中国宏桥（H）等。 钢铁：供需平稳，钢价小幅上涨，盈利率继续回落，稳经济增量政策有 望修复预期。供给端，高炉开工率环比回升，钢厂盈利率回落，铁水供 给约束明显。需求端，上海线螺采购量环比平稳，关注稳经济政策落地 情况。成本端，盈利率转弱有望压制原料采购需求。价利方面，供需格 局短期平稳，预计短期钢价震荡为主。稳经济增量政策有望修复预期， 建议关注：宝钢股份、华菱钢铁、久立特材、甬金股份等。 贵金属：美国 12 月降息概率继续抬升，金价仍将震荡上行。据 Wind， 美国 11 月 CPI 同比升 2.7%，环比升 0.3%，均符合预期， ...

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