Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Buy" [2] Core Views - Hongguo Short Drama has emerged as a leader in the short drama market, leveraging its scale advantage and the Douyin ecosystem [2] - The domestic short drama industry has entered a phase of clear competition after initial business model innovation and rapid growth [2] - The market size of China's online micro-short dramas is expected to reach 504 billion yuan in 2024, a 35% year-on-year increase [2] - IAA (In-App Advertisement) short dramas are becoming the main driver of market growth, with IAP (In-App Purchase) short dramas reaching their peak [2] - Hongguo Short Drama's MAU exceeded 140 million and DAU exceeded 40 million in November 2024, far ahead of other short drama apps [2] Summary by Sections 1. Hongguo Short Drama's Rise - Hongguo Short Drama has taken the lead in the short drama market, with its MAU and DAU significantly surpassing competitors [2][18] - The app's "free + ads" model has strong scalability, and it has topped the Dataeye Short Drama Heat List since June 2024 [2] - Hongguo has partnered with over 600 short drama institutions and has more than 15,000 short dramas on its platform [2] 2. Short Drama Market Competition - The short drama market has shifted from IAP to IAA models, with IAA expected to dominate the market share [2][27] - The IAA model has higher user acceptance due to the weak content payment awareness among Chinese netizens [27] - The free short drama market is expected to be highly concentrated, with Hongguo leading the way [27][33] 3. Hongguo's Competitive Advantages - Hongguo benefits from the scale effect of the free short drama track and the Douyin ecosystem [44] - It has a strong content and channel advantage, with access to a vast library of IPs from Tomato Novel [44] - The integration with Douyin's advertising platform, Ocean Engine, provides Hongguo with efficient marketing resources [44] 4. Collaboration and Industry Empowerment - Hongguo has established partnerships with over 600 short drama institutions, providing a content budget of over 200 million yuan monthly [66] - The platform has a strong focus on female-oriented content, with 60 detailed tags to help users find preferred dramas [66] - Hongguo's revenue-sharing model benefits copyright holders, with total revenue sharing exceeding 250 million yuan in October 2024 [73] 5. Investment Recommendations - Investors should focus on professional media and film institutions that have partnered with Hongguo, as they are likely to benefit from the growth of the short drama business [85] - Companies like China Literature and Huace Film have already released multiple high-quality short dramas on Hongguo's platform [85] - Hongguo has also collaborated with major media groups like Mango TV, Xinhua News Agency, and Zhejiang TV [85]

[Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2024-12-15 环保行业深度跟踪:财政部大力支持 国产采购，环保公司利好频发 2024-12-08 水务行业系列深度之化债篇:水务行 2024-12-06 业三问：应收问题、未来增长、发 展趋势？ 生物柴油行业（三）:SAF 元年开 启，得"废油"者得天下 2024-12-01 [Table_Contacts] [Table_Page] 跟踪分析|环保 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 环保行业深度跟踪 UCO 价格持续上涨，环保企业积极变革 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 建议关注：聚光科技、中再资环、瀚蓝环境、金科环境、大地海洋、中 金环境、武汉控股、朗坤环境。 ⚫ UCO 价格持续上涨，餐厨/固废企业盈利弹性打开。根据生物柴油网数 据披露，12 月 13 日工业级混合油港口价格为 6700~6800 元/吨，较退 税取消前 11 月 1 日的 6100 元/吨涨幅明显。退税政策并未导致 UCO 价格下跌，反而稳中有升的原因主要系 SAF 产能加速投产下，废弃油 脂资源愈发匮乏，供需矛盾加剧。重申我们在"生 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 60.09 CNY per share [6] Core Views - The company focuses on original innovation in small molecule drugs, particularly in the oncology field, with 6 globally competitive product pipelines and 2 commercialized products [3] - Sunvozertinib (舒沃替尼) is the first domestically developed drug for EGFR Exon20ins mutation NSCLC, filling a treatment gap and has submitted an NDA to the FDA [4] - Golvatinib (戈利昔替尼) is the first JAK1 inhibitor approved for R/R PTCL, offering advantages in efficacy and safety [4] - Early-stage pipelines like DZD8586 (BTK/LYN inhibitor) and DZD2269 (A2aR antagonist) show potential for overcoming drug resistance and providing new treatment options [5] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow from 540 million CNY in 2024 to 1.684 billion CNY in 2026, driven by core product sales [5] - EPS is projected to improve from -2.19 CNY in 2024 to -0.50 CNY in 2026 [5] Company Overview - The company specializes in small molecule drug R&D, with a focus on oncology and immunology, and has a strong management team with extensive industry experience [44][45] - It has established 6 globally competitive product pipelines, with 2 products already commercialized [44] Product Pipeline - Sunvozertinib: Approved in China for EGFR Exon20ins mutation NSCLC, with global Phase III trials ongoing [4][44] - Golvatinib: Approved in China for R/R PTCL, with potential for first-line maintenance therapy [4][96] - DZD8586: A novel BTK/LYN inhibitor with potential to overcome BTK resistance, currently in Phase I/II trials [5][52] - DZD2269: A selective A2aR antagonist in Phase I trials for prostate cancer [5] - DZD1516: A HER2 inhibitor with blood-brain barrier penetration, effective for heavily pretreated HER2+ breast cancer [5] Market and Industry Analysis - EGFR Exon20ins mutation NSCLC represents a significant unmet clinical need, with Sunvozertinib being the first domestically developed drug targeting this mutation [57][58] - PTCL has a poor prognosis, and Golvatinib is the only JAK1 inhibitor approved for this indication, offering a new treatment option [96] - BTK inhibitors have revolutionized the treatment of B-cell lymphomas, but resistance remains a challenge, which DZD8586 aims to address [105][106]

走扩 [Table_Page] 跟踪分析|银行 [Table_Title] 银行行业 财政支出与降准预期推动年底宽松 ——银行资负跟踪 20241215 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 本期:2024/12/9~12/15,上期:2024/12/2~12/8,下期:2024/12/16~12/22。 ⚫ 央行动态：本期央行公开市场共开展 5,385 亿元 7 天逆回购操作，利率 1.50%，逆回购到期 3,541 亿元，整体实现净投放 1,844 亿元。下期央 行公开市场将有 5,385 亿元逆回购到期。另外，下周有 14,500 亿元 MLF 到期。本周央行小额净投放，政府债净缴款处于高位，叠加税期准备期 和债市火热非银融入需求上升，资金面边际转紧。下周政府债净缴款明 显缩量，但考虑到大额 MLF 到期和税期，预计央行公开市场操作将投放 流动性以对冲相应影响，关注降准可能性。 ⚫ 政府债融资：本期政府债净缴款 7,499 亿元，预计下期净缴款约-340.25 亿元，较本期明显回落。年内政府债供给高峰已过，财政支出高峰将至。 ⚫ 资金利率：本期末 DR001、DR007、DR014、DR021 ...

Industry Rating - The report assigns a **Buy** rating to the Defense and Military Industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3] Core Views - The industry is expected to see accelerated improvement as the "14th Five-Year Plan" concludes and the "15th Five-Year Plan" is formulated, with a focus on the aviation sector [18] - The shipbuilding sector is expected to maintain steady growth, with significant orders such as a 17 billion RMB contract for LNG dual-fuel container ships [19] - Satellite and rocket development is progressing rapidly, with multiple launches planned for late 2024 and early 2025, including the Long March 8A and Long March 5B rockets [19] - The report highlights four key investment strategies for 2025, focusing on ROE growth, turnaround opportunities, emerging trends, and state-owned enterprise reforms [20] Company Summaries Aero Engine Corporation (航发动力) - Expected to benefit from high-end aviation equipment production and long-term maintenance demand, with projected revenue of 497.62 billion RMB in 2024 [21] - Forecasted net profit for 2024-2025 is 15.22 billion RMB and 19.29 billion RMB, respectively, with a 2024 PE ratio of 71X [21] AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry (中航西飞) - A major manufacturer of military and civilian aircraft, with expected revenue growth of 11.9% in 2024 [24] - Forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is 10.21 billion RMB, 12.83 billion RMB, and 15.83 billion RMB, respectively, with a 2024 PE ratio of 72X [24] AVIC Heavy Machinery (中航重机) - Expected to benefit from the aviation equipment supply chain and global maintenance markets, with a projected profit target of 18.6 billion RMB in 2024 [25] - Forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is 15.76 billion RMB, 19.01 billion RMB, and 23.48 billion RMB, respectively, with a 2024 PE ratio of 19X [25] Raytron Technology (睿创微纳) - A leader in non-cooled infrared technology, with significant growth potential in military and civilian applications [27] - Forecasted net profit for 2024 is 6.52 billion RMB, with a 2024 PE ratio of 33X [27] Guorui Technology (国睿科技) - Focused on radar and low-altitude economy, with significant contracts in meteorological and low-altitude surveillance projects [28] - Forecasted net profit for 2024-2025 is 6.94 billion RMB and 9.89 billion RMB, respectively, with a 2024 PE ratio of 36X [28] Guangwei Composites (光威复材) - A key supplier in the aerospace carbon fiber market, with significant growth potential in satellite and missile applications [29] - Forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is 9.30 billion RMB, 12.84 billion RMB, and 15.84 billion RMB, respectively, with a 2024 PE ratio of 30X [29] China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (中国动力) - Expected to benefit from the shipbuilding cycle and engine technology advancements, with significant growth in maintenance and repair markets [31] - Forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is 11.88 billion RMB, 16.90 billion RMB, and 25.67 billion RMB, respectively, with a 2024 PE ratio of 47X [31] AVIC Shenyang Aircraft (中航沈飞) - A leading manufacturer of fighter jets, with significant growth potential in military trade and maintenance markets [32] - Forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is 37.59 billion RMB, 46.69 billion RMB, and 57.42 billion RMB, respectively, with a 2024 PE ratio of 36X [32] AVIC Optoelectronics (中航光电) - A leader in military connectors, with significant growth potential in aerospace, shipbuilding, and new energy sectors [33] - Forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is 36.97 billion RMB, 44.88 billion RMB, and 53.70 billion RMB, respectively, with a 2024 PE ratio of 22X [33] Unigroup Guoxin (紫光国微) - A leader in integrated circuits, with significant growth potential in military and civilian applications [35] - Forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is 28.07 billion RMB, 35.00 billion RMB, and 41.13 billion RMB, respectively, with a 2024 PE ratio of 39X [35] Zhongke Xingtu (中科星图) - Focused on the digital earth and low-altitude economy, with significant growth potential in satellite and AI applications [36] - Forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is 4.86 billion RMB, 6.83 billion RMB, and 9.30 billion RMB, respectively, with a 2024 PE ratio of 64X [36] CETC 712 (七一二) - A leader in military wireless communication, with significant growth potential in satellite and AI applications [38] - Forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is 1.75 billion RMB, 4.10 billion RMB, and 5.26 billion RMB, respectively, with a 2024 PE ratio of 89X [38] Haige Communications (海格通信) - A leader in military communication and navigation, with significant growth potential in satellite and AI applications [39] - Forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is 4.62 billion RMB, 9.20 billion RMB, and 12.92 billion RMB, respectively, with a 2024 PE ratio of 69X [39]

[TAblE_G rADE] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2024-12-15 2024-12-04 [TAblE_ContACts] [TAblE_TitlE] 农林牧渔行业 如何看待 11 月生猪公司出栏数据 [TAblE_SummAry] 核心观点： 本周专题：近期主要生猪养殖公司11月出栏数据基本披露完毕，根据 各公司月度经营数据公告，2024年11月上市公司整体生猪出栏小幅 增长，出栏均重环比提升。（1）出栏量：11月份，各上市公司商品 猪出栏量合计1406万头，环比增长0.5%，同比增长12.6%；剔除牧 原后的各上市公司商品猪出栏量合计768万头，环比增长2.5%，同比 减少2.8%。1-11月，各上市公司商品猪出栏量同比增长5.6%；剔除 牧原后的各上市公司商品猪出栏量同比增长2%。其中，11月牧原股 份、温氏股份和新希望分别出栏商品猪638.3万头、290.8万头和126 万头，环比分别减少1.8%、增长8.8%、增长0.5%，同比分别增长 20.5%、增长13%和减少24.8%。中小养殖企业方面，11月份，唐人 神、天康生物、华统股份、神农集团分别出栏商品猪49.5万头、28 ...

[Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2024-12-15 SAC 执证号：S0260522070007 SFC CE No. BVB342 Xm l [Table_Page] 跟踪分析|房地产 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 房地产及物管行业 24 年第 50 周周报 认购网签仍维持较高水平，中央稳楼市表态提级 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 本周政策情况：持续用力推动止跌回稳，提振房地产市场预期。中央方 面，政治局召开会议，强调要实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货 币政策，要积极稳妥化解房地产风险，一视同仁满足不同所有制房地产 企业的合理融资需求，促进房地产市场平稳健康发展。地方政策方面， 长沙收购 436 套存量房作保障房，昆明提出进一步盘活存量，提升空 间利用效率，促进土地集约复合利用，广西收购商品房作保障房，广 西、襄阳、运城出台房票安置相关政策。 本周基本面情况：新房成交环比有下降，二手成交热度维持高位。据 Wind 及克尔瑞，本周 50 城新房成交面积 541.2 万方，环比下降 2.5%， 同比上升 17.2%。二手房方面，本周 13 城 ...

Industry Rating - The industry rating is **Buy** [1][2] Core Views - The CITIC media sector rose by 3.18% this week (Dec 9-13), outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.54 percentage points [4] - AI models and applications continue to land, boosting sector confidence, with related stocks showing significant gains [4] - The Ministry of Finance announced a 4-year extension of tax incentives for cultural institutions transitioning to enterprises, benefiting publishing and broadcasting sectors [4] - The Politburo meeting emphasized boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand, with cyclical sectors expected to benefit from economic recovery [4] Investment Recommendations Internet - Internet companies' PE ratios are generally in the high single-digit to low double-digit range for 2025 earnings expectations [5] - Recommended stocks: Tencent Holdings, Tencent Music, NetEase Cloud Music, Meituan, Kuaishou, Bilibili, Weibo, and Pop Mart [5] Gaming - The gaming sector is recommended due to policy improvements and strong market growth [5] - Recommended stocks: Perfect World, Century Huatong,恺英网络,姚记科技,创梦天地,神州泰岳,三七互娱,吉比特,电魂网络,冰川网络 [5] Publishing - Tax exemption policies for state-owned publishing enterprises have been extended for 4 years, enhancing dividend capabilities and investment value [5] - Recommended stocks: 中南传媒,皖新传媒,长江传媒,凤凰传媒,时代出版 [5] Film - The film industry is expected to see a supply inflection point, with the 2025 Spring Festival lineup potentially setting new box office records [5] - Recommended stocks: 猫眼娱乐,万达电影,光线传媒,阿里影业,博纳影业 [5] Marketing - Advertising confidence is expected to strengthen with macroeconomic recovery [5] - Recommended stocks: 分众传媒,兆讯传媒,蓝色光标,易点天下,引力传媒,因赛集团,省广集团 [5] State-Owned Enterprise Reform - Focus on state-owned enterprise reform and market value management [5] - Recommended stocks: 新媒股份,华数传媒,东方明珠,芒果超媒,中广天择,上海电影,唐德影视,电广传媒 [5] Key Company Performance Meituan-W - Q3 revenue: RMB 93.577 billion, up 22.38% YoY [42] - Q3 GAAP net profit: RMB 12.865 billion [42] - Core local commerce revenue: RMB 69.373 billion, up 20.25% YoY [42] Tencent Holdings - Q3 revenue: RMB 65.79 billion, up 8.0% YoY [42] - Q3 adjusted net profit: RMB 221.8 billion, up 45.0% YoY [42] Baidu - Q3 revenue: RMB 33.557 billion, down 3% YoY [43] - Q3 non-GAAP net profit: RMB 5.886 billion, down 19% YoY [43] Kuaishou-W - Q3 revenue: RMB 31.1 billion, up 11% YoY [47] - Q3 non-GAAP net profit: RMB 3.948 billion, up 24% YoY [47] Bilibili - Q3 revenue: RMB 7.3 billion, up 26% YoY [48] - Q3 non-GAAP net profit: RMB 236 million [48] 37 Interactive Entertainment - Q3 revenue growth driven by small games and stable operation of old games [49] - Q3 cash dividend: RMB 0.21 per share [49] Focus Media - Q3 advertising revenue driven by FMCG and internet sectors [52] - Expected 2024-25 revenue: RMB 12.612 billion and RMB 13.341 billion [52] Industry Data Film Market - Weekly box office (Dec 8-14): RMB 298 million, down 12.22% week-on-week [56] - Top 5 films: "好东西" (RMB 83.205 million), "孤星计划" (RMB 52.143 million), "破·地狱" (RMB 29.821 million), "误判" (RMB 22.714 million), "因果报应" (RMB 16.684 million) [56] TV Drama Market - Top 5 dramas by broadcast index: "我是刑警" (84.4), "猎罪图签2" (82.5), "九重紫" (82.3), "永夜星河" (81.8), "白夜破晓" (81.7) [62] Variety Show Market - Top 5 variety shows by broadcast index: "再见爱人第四季" (80.1), "现在就出发 第2季" (77.9), "奔跑吧茶马古道篇" (77.7), "生生不息大湾区季" (77.0), "种地吧第二季" (75.1) [67] Gaming Market - Top 5 mobile games: "王者荣耀", "金铲铲之战", "地下城与勇士：起源", "无尽冬日", "和平精英" [70] VC/PE Investments - Total of 9 VC/PE investments this week (Dec 9-13) [78] - Education: 3 investments [78] - Gaming: 1 investment [78] - Entertainment: 1 investment [78] - Local services: 4 investments [78]

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