[Table_Title] 小熊电器（002959.SZ） 分析师： 袁雨辰 SAC 执证号：S0260517110001 SFC CE No. BNV055 021-38003640 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------|------------| | | | | [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] | | | 小熊电器（ 002959.SZ ） : 经营 | 2024-10-31 | | 承压，期待改善 | | | | | | 小熊电器（ 002959.SZ ） : 业绩 | 2024-09-01 | | 承压，期待改善 | | | 小熊电器（ 002959.SZ ） : 高基 | 2024-04-26 | | 数下，收入小幅下滑 | | [Table_Contacts] 受益于内需改善，有望迎来拐点 基本数据 [Table_BaseInfo] zengchan@gf.com.cn yuanyuchen@gf.com.cn 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1 / 22 2 / 22 图 14: 24Q1-3 家电细 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A and H shares of the company [2][3] Core Insights - The company is undergoing a leadership transition with the appointment of Jiang Zongxiang as the new chairman, which is expected to initiate a new development cycle [1] - The beer industry is anticipated to recover in 2025, driven by the new management team and a rebound in restaurant consumption, which will positively impact beer sales [1] - The company has a strong shareholder return strategy, with dividend payout ratios of 47.6%, 66.2%, and 63.9% from 2021 to 2023, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [1] - Profit forecasts for 2024-2026 project net profits of 44.3 billion, 50.1 billion, and 53.5 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 3.9%, 13.0%, and 6.7% respectively [1] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is expected to be 32.183 billion yuan, with a projected growth rate of -5.2%, followed by 33.748 billion yuan in 2025 and 34.565 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 4.9% and 2.4% respectively [33] - The company's net profit for 2024 is estimated at 4.433 billion yuan, with growth rates of 3.9%, 13.0%, and 6.7% for the following years [33] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is 3.25 yuan, increasing to 3.67 yuan in 2025 and 3.92 yuan in 2026 [33]

化工行业盈利仍处于历史同期底部。根据wind资讯，24Q3基础化工行业单季度加 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 [Table_PageText] 投资策略报告|基础化工 权ROE为1.33%，环比24Q2下降0.48pct，同比23Q3下降0.46pct；剔除季节性因 素，近十年来Q3行业单季度加权ROE与历史同期相比处于较低水平。 图18：化学子行业利润总额累计同比（%） 数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心 -400% -200% 0% 200% 400% 600% 800% 2012/2/12012/8/12013/2/12013/8/12014/2/12014/8/12015/2/12015/8/12016/2/12016/8/12017/2/12017/8/12018/2/12018/8/12019/2/12019/8/12020/2/12020/8/12021/2/12021/8/12022/2/12022/8/12023/2/12023/8/12024/2/12024/8/1 石油和天然气开采业：利润总额：累计同比 化学原料及化学制品制造业：利润总额：累计同比 化学纤维制造业： ...

[Table_Page] 行业专题研究|家用电器 2024 年 12 月 24 日 | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------| | 相关研究 [Table _ Report ： ] \n家用电器行业 : 微信小店将推送礼功能，小家电有望受益 | 2024-12-22 | | 家用电器行业 : 出口专题：新兴市场驱动增长，龙头全球布局领先 | 2024-12-16 | | 家用电器行业 : 重磅会议强调提振消费， 11 月家电出口增长较好 | 2024-12-15 | [Table_PageText] 行业专题研究|家用电器 行业专题研究|家用电器 识别风险，发现价值 图表索引 表 2：2024 年 6 月-11 月线上洗地机月度畅销机型及销量（台）........................13 数据来源：奥维云网，广发证券发展研究中心 数据来源：奥维云网、广发证券发展研究中心 2024年以来，在国补+大促的双 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 12.60 CNY per share based on a 17x PE valuation for 2024 [2][3]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in nuclear power engineering, with significant revenue and profit contributions expected to continue growing, enhancing overall profitability. The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 2.23 billion, 2.60 billion, and 2.92 billion CNY, respectively [2][5]. Company Overview - The controlling shareholder is the China National Nuclear Corporation, holding 56.67% of the company as of the end of H1 2024. The revenue contributions from nuclear engineering and industrial and civil engineering are 28% and 65%, respectively [5][37]. - The company has a strong market position in nuclear island construction, with a market share of 98% in civil engineering and 96% in installation engineering as of the end of 2015 [5][62]. Industry Analysis - The average annual market space for nuclear power station construction in China is estimated at 50.4 billion CNY, with high barriers to entry for nuclear island engineering services [5][72]. - The nuclear power sector is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market space of 352.8 billion CNY from 2024 to 2030, averaging 50.4 billion CNY annually [5][72]. Financial Performance - The company has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.5% in revenue and 14.3% in net profit from 2019 to 2023. For H1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 546.3 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 0.1% [5][42]. - The projected revenue for 2024 is 114.73 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 4.9% [6][42]. Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margins for nuclear engineering and industrial and civil engineering were 13.49% and 9.52%, respectively, in 2023, indicating stable profitability [5][48]. - The overall gross margin for the company was 11.35% in 2023, reflecting an increase of 1.28 percentage points year-on-year [5][48].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Buy" [3] Core Insights - The report highlights that the extension of the transition period for the "Second Generation Solvency" (偿二代) will alleviate the solvency pressure on some insurance companies and further guide long-term capital into the market [17][20] - The report emphasizes the restructuring of state-owned enterprise stock values due to new regulations from the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) and the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), which will broaden cross-border investment financing [23][28] - The report suggests that the current market activity remains stable, with M&A events attracting new capital attention, indicating potential for valuation recovery in the industry [20][23] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - As of December 13, the Shanghai Composite Index reported a decline of 0.70%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.62% [15] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.5 trillion yuan, a decrease of 21% week-on-week [3] 2. Insurance Sector Insights - The extension of the transition period for solvency rules until the end of 2025 is expected to ease the solvency pressure on insurance companies, allowing for a smoother transition to new regulations [17][18] - The report notes that the insurance sector is benefiting from strong demand for savings products, which is expected to support sales performance [17][20] 3. Securities Sector Insights - The acquisition of Minsheng Securities by Guolian Securities has been approved, which is expected to enhance scale and promote synergy in comprehensive financial services [23][24] - The new market value management guidelines issued by SASAC aim to improve the investment value of state-owned enterprises and enhance investor relations [28][31] 4. Regulatory Changes - The CSRC has revised the Hong Kong Mutual Recognition Fund Management Regulations, increasing the sales ratio from 50% to 80%, which is anticipated to expand the investment space for mainland investors [36][38] - The new regulations are expected to facilitate deeper integration and collaborative development between mainland and Hong Kong financial markets [36][38]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for major companies in the home appliance sector, including Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, and Hisense Home Appliances [5][46]. Core Insights - The home appliance industry is experiencing stable growth, with a focus on benefiting from the "old-for-new" policy, which is expected to stimulate demand [2][45]. - In November, the retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.0% year-on-year, while the home appliance and audio-visual equipment category saw a significant rise of 22.2% [22][41]. - The report highlights strong export growth in the home appliance sector, with a notable increase in air conditioning production and sales [43][68]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report indicates that the retail sales of consumer goods in November increased by 3.0% year-on-year, with home appliances and audio-visual equipment growing by 22.2% [22][41]. - The real estate data shows a mixed picture, with residential sales area increasing by 4.2% year-on-year in November, but new construction and completion areas declining significantly [42]. Sales Performance - In November, air conditioning production reached 16.71 million units, up 55.7% year-on-year, with sales of 15.38 million units, an increase of 44.2% [43][45]. - Domestic sales of air conditioners rose by 28.7%, while exports surged by 59.1% [43][45]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies with stable ROE and high dividend yields, specifically Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, Hisense Home Appliances, and leading two-wheeler companies like Aima Technology and Ninebot [2][45]. - The report also suggests that the black appliance leaders such as TCL Electronics and Hisense Visual, as well as XGIMI Technology, are worth considering for investment [2][45]. Market Performance - The report notes that during the week of December 16-20, 2024, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.1%, while the home appliance sector index decreased by 0.8% [49]. - The black appliance index rose by 0.3%, and the white appliance index increased by 0.1% during the same period [49].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 10.58 CNY per share, while the current price is 10.37 CNY [5]. Core Views - The acquisition of a 10% stake in Jianfa Real Estate from the controlling shareholder Jianfa Group is seen as a reasonable valuation, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.07x, which is lower than the previous acquisition's PB ratio of 1.27x [2]. - The acquisition is expected to enhance the company's share in quality assets, potentially improving profitability, as Jianfa Real Estate accounted for 82% of the company's total sales in 2023, with a sales amount of 188.9 billion CNY [2]. - The company has committed to a cash dividend payout ratio of no less than 30% for 2024-2025, with a minimum dividend of 0.7 CNY per share, which corresponds to a dividend yield of 6.75% based on the closing price on December 20 [2]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 3.49 billion CNY in 2024 and 4.1 billion CNY in 2025, with a significant drop in net profit expected in 2024 due to ongoing impacts from the supply chain business [3]. - Revenue is forecasted to decline from 763.68 billion CNY in 2023 to 673.07 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a decrease of 11.9% [4]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to drop to 1.18 CNY in 2024, before recovering to 1.39 CNY in 2025 [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [5] Core Insights - The extension of the transitional period for solvency regulations alleviates pressure on insurance companies, allowing for a smoother transition to new rules [26] - The solvency ratio of the life insurance industry has decreased significantly from 211.7% in Q4 2021 to 119.5% in Q3 2024, indicating a need for regulatory adjustments [26] - Insurance companies are expected to accelerate bond issuance to replenish capital, utilizing perpetual bonds and convertible bonds as tools for core capital supplementation [26] - The report recommends focusing on the insurance sector, particularly companies like China Pacific Insurance, China Life Insurance, and AIA Group, among others [9][26] Summary by Sections Regulatory Changes - The National Financial Regulatory Administration has extended the transitional period for solvency regulation until the end of 2025, which is crucial for companies facing significant impacts from the transition to new rules [8][26] - The new solvency rules include adjustments to the core capital ratio and the measurement of investment properties, among other changes aimed at optimizing risk assessments [26] Market Performance - The life insurance industry's solvency ratio remains above the regulatory minimum of 50%, but the downward pressure on long-term interest rates and market volatility poses challenges [26] - The report highlights the potential for improved investment returns from stable high-dividend and long-term equity investments as interest rates decline [9][26] Company Recommendations - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the insurance sector, including: - China Ping An (601318.SH) - New China Life Insurance (601336.SH) - China Pacific Insurance (601601.SH) - China Life Insurance (601628.SH) - AIA Group (01299.HK) [9][14][26]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [16][17]. Core Insights - The report highlights a focus on companies such as Waneng Power, Zheneng Power, CGN Power, Guotou Power, Changjiang Power, Huadian International, Sheneng Co., Longyuan Power, China Resources Power, Funiu Co., Kunlun Energy, and China Resources Gas [18]. - The growth rate of electricity consumption has declined due to high temperatures, base effects, and pressure on the secondary industry. In November, the growth rates for total electricity consumption, primary, secondary, and tertiary industries, and residential use were +2.8%, +7.6%, +2.2%, +4.7%, and +2.9% respectively [18]. - The report notes that the total installed capacity increased by 316.7 GW from January to November, with wind and solar accounting for 258 GW (up 26% year-on-year) and thermal power accounting for 44% of the total installed capacity [18]. - The report indicates that the market-oriented electricity prices are decreasing, with significant drops in provinces like Shandong, Shanxi, and Jiangsu [18]. - The report emphasizes the rapid decline in coal prices, with the latest Qinhuangdao thermal coal price at 780 CNY/ton, the lowest in the past year [18]. Summary by Sections Electricity Demand - The decline in electricity demand growth is attributed to high temperatures and economic weakness, with the secondary industry's growth rate affected by base effects [11][18]. - The report notes that the electricity generation growth rate for thermal power fell to 1.4% in November, while hydropower showed some improvement [18]. Installed Capacity - From January to November, the newly added installed capacity was 316.7 GW, with wind and solar accounting for 258 GW [18]. - The report states that 28 GW of thermal power was approved, and 79 GW of new thermal power construction commenced [18]. Water Conditions - The report indicates that water levels have been low since October, leading to a decline in electricity generation in major river basins [11][18]. Electricity Prices - The report highlights that market-oriented electricity prices are decreasing, with the largest year-on-year drop in Guangdong province [18]. Energy Prices - The report notes a rapid decline in coal prices, with high inventory levels maintained [18]. - Natural gas consumption increased by 9.9% year-on-year from January to October [18]. Recommended Stocks - The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from the decline in gas prices and the stabilization of electricity prices, including those in the public utility sector [18].