[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|银行 [Table_Title] 银行投资观察 20241215 利率市场和股息资产前景 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 本期观察区间：2024/12/9-2024/12/13。本文数据来源于 Wind 数据。 板块表现方面：本期 Wind 全 A 下跌 0.2%，银行板块整体下跌 0.5%， 排在所有行业第 17 位，跑输万得全 A。国有大行、股份行、城商行、 农商行变动幅度分别为+0.4%、-1.1%、-0.4%、-1.5%。恒生综合指数 上涨 0.4%，H 股银行涨幅 0.8%，跑赢恒生综合指数，跑赢 A 股银行。 个股表现方面：A 股银行涨幅前三为瑞丰银行上涨 1.92%、中国银行 上涨 1.57%、北京银行上涨 1.21%，跌幅靠前为渝农商行下跌 2.94%、 厦门银行下跌2.64%。H股银行涨幅前三为广州农商银行上涨12.18%、 中国银行上涨 2.15%、招商银行上涨 1.89%，跌幅前三为浙商银行下 跌 1.83%、重庆农村商业银行下跌 1.58%、重庆银行下跌 1.35%。 银行转债方面：本期银行转债平均价格上涨 0.45%，跑输中证转债 1. ...

建产业链 [Table_Contacts] [Table_Title] 通信行业 数据中心短距传输 AEC 需求有望高增，关注产业链投资机会 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 当地时间 12 月 2 日，Credo 发布 FY25Q2 财报，公司单季度营收创 记录，同比环比实现高增。预计 FY25 收入端将实现同比 100%或以上 的增长，FY26 收入实现 50%同比增长。 单季度营收创纪录，AEC 业务下游需求放量。公司 FY25Q2 营收 7203.4 万美元（YoY+63.6%，QoQ+20.6%），创单季度营收纪录；主 要受益于 AEC 业务下游需求放量。本季度有三家客户收入占比超过 10%，其中公司第二家 AEC 大型客户收入占比达到 33%，本季度有一 家新的新兴云厂商客户收入占比 14%，微软收入占比达到 11%。公司 预期 FY25Q3 收入 1.15~1.25 亿美元，按中值计算环比增长 67%； FY25Q4 实现双位数环比增长，FY26 收入实现 50%左右的同比增长。 AEC 是兼具功耗、部署灵活性、成本等优势的有源铜缆。AEC 是一种 内置信号增强组件的铜缆。AEC 在两 ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|银行 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 11 月金融数据点评 M1 增速继续回升，社融见底企稳 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 2024 年 12 月 13 日，央行公布 11 月金融数据。我们点评如下： 整体情况（表 1-11）：活期化加速支撑 M1 增速大幅回升。11 月单位 活期存款环比增长 1.58 万亿元（10 月：0.45 万亿元），M1 增速环比 回升 2.4pct 至-3.7%。社融增速环比持平，信贷增量延续前期偏弱趋 势，预计主要由于本轮政策更多支持财政化债和消费刺激，虽然直接改 善了企业流动性但相较于项目投资而言对信贷需求的拉动较慢，投资 部分对信贷需求的拉动可能在明年年初逐步体现。 政府部门（表 12-13，图 2-10）：财政力度退坡主要源于政府债发行与 财政支出存在时滞性。11 月政府债净融资 1.31 万亿元，同比多增 0.16 万亿元；财政存款净增加 0.14 万亿元，同比多增 0.47 万亿元；政府净 融资"政府债-财政存款"1.12 万亿元，同比少增 0.31 万亿元。增量财 政政策落地后政府债供给放量，而财政支出落地存 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A/Buy-H" [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the investment logic for bank stocks will shift from dividend logic to recovery logic by 2025, with companies like China Merchants Bank (CMB) being sensitive to economic recovery [13][36] - The report highlights several key factors driving the positive outlook for CMB, including a rebound in consumer demand, improved deposit dynamics, a favorable capital market environment, and resilient non-interest income [14][37][201] Summary by Sections Introduction - The report discusses the significant changes in the domestic and international policy and economic environment since Q3 2024, indicating a positive shift in policy direction and the potential for economic recovery [36][171] Value Banking: Profitability Across Cycles - CMB has maintained a leading position in return on equity (ROE) among peers, benefiting from a strong retail banking focus and effective risk management [72][117] - The bank's low-cost funding and high-quality non-interest income contribute to its robust profitability [72][117] Economic Recovery and CMB's Potential for Excess Returns - The report anticipates a recovery in retail demand and credit growth as economic policies take effect, particularly in key regions like the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta [37][173] - CMB's deposit structure is expected to improve, with a projected increase in the proportion of demand deposits, positively impacting net interest margins [14][195] - The capital market is expected to recover, leading to a rebound in wealth management income, which is a significant contributor to CMB's revenue [201][202] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts a net profit growth of 0.32% and 1.95% for 2024 and 2025, respectively, with earnings per share (EPS) projected at 5.65 and 5.76 CNY [231] - The report maintains a target price of 55.63 CNY for A-shares and 54.91 HKD for H-shares, suggesting a favorable valuation compared to current market prices [231][232]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 14.82 CNY per share, indicating an upside potential from the current price of 12.83 CNY per share [4]. Core Views - The company has been selected for a project with China Mobile for the development of integrated terminal chips, with a contract value of 31.06 million CNY, which is expected to enhance its collaboration in the Beidou field [2][3]. - The company is expanding its presence in the civilian market, particularly in satellite communication and low-altitude economy scenarios, leveraging its comprehensive industry chain layout [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 0.19 CNY, 0.37 CNY, and 0.52 CNY respectively, reflecting a positive outlook driven by advancements in aerospace information technology and the Beidou system [3]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - Current Price: 12.83 CNY - Target Price: 14.82 CNY - Previous Rating: Buy - Report Date: December 13, 2024 [4]. Project and Collaboration - The company has been awarded a contract for the development of integrated terminal chips, which is expected to accelerate its collaboration with China Mobile in the Beidou sector [2][3]. Market Expansion - The company is focusing on the civilian market, particularly in satellite communication and low-altitude economy, with a full industry chain layout that includes chips, modules, antennas, and terminals [3]. Financial Forecast - Projected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.19 CNY, 0.37 CNY, and 0.52 CNY respectively, indicating growth potential [3].

[Table_Contacts] [Table_Title] 非银金融行业 部署投融资综合改革，引领中长期资金入市 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 中央经济工作会议定调明年政策框架，为实现"十五五"良好开局打牢基 础。中央经济工作会议 12 月 11 日至 12 日在京举行，会议指出，实施更 加积极有为的宏观政策，"更加积极的财政政策"与"适度宽松的货币政 策"，较 2023 年的"积极的财政政策"与"稳健的货币政策"更加有力， 更加强调"以进促稳"。明确表示"把握政策取向，讲求时机力度，各项 工作能早则早、抓紧抓实，保证足够力度"，开年调控政策有望加速落地 以应对外部压力，注重内需提振，政策工具箱丰富，有力稳定市场预期。 ⚫ 资本市场投融资改革持续深化，重视资本市场的地位和功能。时隔三年再 次于中央经济工作会议提及"资本市场"，2021-2023 三年均未计提，"稳 住楼市股市"政策诉求下，当前资本市场承载着经济预期、提振内需、畅 通融资的重任，资本市场内在稳定性持续增强。会议指出"深化资本市场 投融资综合改革，打通中长期资金入市卡点堵点，增强资本市场制度的包 容性、适应性。"（1）融资端改 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight" with a focus on domestic ship power leaders such as China Power [3]. Core Viewpoints - The shipbuilding industry exhibits strong cyclical characteristics, with maintenance services extending the upward trend of the industry. The value of low-speed engines accounts for approximately 10% to 15% of total shipbuilding costs, driven by new ship orders and the increasing penetration of high-value dual-fuel engines [3][240]. - The maintenance market for low-speed engines is expected to gradually concentrate among leading manufacturers, as shipowners pursue both technical reliability and cost-effectiveness [3][242]. - The optimization of lifecycle costs is crucial for achieving a win-win situation between shipowners and maintenance providers, with innovative service models being developed [3][243]. - Maintenance services are characterized by light assets, high margins, and sustainability, providing cash flow support during downturns in the shipbuilding cycle [3][244]. Summary by Sections 1. Ship Diesel Engine Maintenance: Broad Space, High Value, Long Prosperity - Low-speed engines are the main power systems for maritime transport, accounting for 10% to 15% of shipbuilding costs [67]. - Regular maintenance is essential for the longevity and performance of ship equipment, with maintenance costs often being 1 to 2 times the purchase costs [3][79]. 2. Learning from Others: Optimizing Lifecycle Costs for Mutual Benefits - MAN Energy Solutions leads in market share and has established a comprehensive service network to support its products [99][100]. - Wärtsilä's lifecycle agreements are a key growth driver in marine services, with a significant increase in service orders and net sales [126][128]. 3. Competitive Landscape: Global Network, Advanced Technology, and Cost Advantages - The maintenance market is dominated by patent holders, manufacturers, and authorized service providers, with a focus on reliability and economic efficiency [165][169]. - Manufacturers are increasingly becoming the preferred choice for shipowners due to their reliability and cost advantages [184]. 4. Navigating Cycles: Maintenance Business Smooths Cycles and Enhances Efficiency - The maintenance business provides cash flow support during downturns, helping companies navigate through challenging periods [244][220]. - The integration of upstream design and downstream services is essential for enhancing competitiveness in the shipbuilding industry [233][234]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic ship power leaders like China Power, benefiting from the ongoing improvement in the shipbuilding industry and the transition to low-carbon shipping [3][240].

[Table_Contacts] [Table_Title] 保险Ⅱ行业 个金全面扩大+产品供给扩容，为市场注入 长期资金 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 12 月 12 日，人社部等五部门联合宣布从 2024 年 12 月 15 日起将个 人养老金制度由 2022 年 11 月的 36 个区域扩大至全国，并且从六个 方面提出具体的规定，包括扩大实施范围、优化产品供给、提高管理 服务水平、完善领取条件和办法、加强综合监管和做好组织实施工作。 首先，个人养老金制度的全面推广有助于推动第三支柱规模快速增长， 优化养老保险三大支柱结构。随着我国老龄化进程的加快，截至 23 年 底，65 岁以上人口比例已经达到了 15.4%（数据来源于 wind），而我 国养老保险体系又以第一和第二支柱为主，22 年占比分别高达 66.4%、 33.5%（数据来源于人社部和社保基金理事会），而第三支柱仅 0.1%， 人口老龄化加速后第一支柱的收支压力提升。参考美国经验，根据 IC I 数据，23 年第一、第二、第三支柱占比分别为 7%、51%、42%，其 中第三支柱中的个人退休账户 IRA 占养老金规模的比重为 35.8 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BOSS Zhipin (BZ) with a target price of $19.11 per ADS, based on a 20X PE multiple for 2025 [5] Core Views - BOSS Zhipin's 24Q3 revenue grew 18.98% YoY to RMB 19.12 billion, with recruitment services contributing RMB 18.89 billion (up 18.7% YoY) [2] - The company's adjusted net profit reached RMB 739 million in 24Q3, up 3.5% YoY and 2.8% QoQ [2] - BOSS Zhipin's MAU grew 30% YoY to 58 million in 24Q3, with 40 million new users added in the first nine months [3] - The company's blue-collar recruitment business now accounts for 38% of total revenue, showing significant growth potential [3] Financial Performance - Revenue is expected to grow 23.3% to RMB 7.34 billion in 2024 and 10.1% to RMB 8.08 billion in 2025 [4] - Non-GAAP net profit is projected to reach RMB 2.72 billion in 2024 and RMB 3.10 billion in 2025 [4] - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 22 in 2023 to 15 in 2025, indicating improving valuation metrics [4] Operational Highlights - Paid enterprise users reached 6 million in the past 12 months, up 22.4% YoY [3] - New job postings increased 18% YoY in 24Q3, driven by efficient business models and market share gains [3] - The company has been actively repurchasing shares, with $220 million repurchased this year and an additional $150 million authorized [3] Industry Position - BOSS Zhipin is recognized as a leading online recruitment platform in China, benefiting from strong network effects [3] - The company's focus on blue-collar recruitment is expected to drive further growth and market expansion [3]

[Table_Page] 投资策略报告|医药生物 请注意，李安飞,田鑫,杨微,王稼宸并非香港证券及期货事 务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活 动。 体现。在资本的助力下，大量新公司获得支持，企业也倾向于大幅扩张 产能和业务边界。2021 年 7 月资本退潮后，企业往往聚焦于核心主导 产业，将更多资源投入到有助于形成核心有竞争力的业务上。随着国内 需求的不断释放和全球市场的开拓，国内监管鼓励企业并购重组，产能 去化后更利于产业价值的体现。 yuanquan@gf.com.cn 联系人： 王少喆 021-38003564 wangshaozhe@gf.com.cn | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...