[Table_Page] 公司深度研究|有色金属 证券研究报告 | [Table_Title] 玉龙股份（601028.SH） | | --- | 黄金新秀，乘风起航 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | Table_Invest] [公司评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格 | 11.35 元 | | 合理价值 | 15.51 元 | | 报告日期 | 2025-01-03 | 基本数据 [Table_BaseInfo] | 总股本/流通股本（百万股） | 783.03/783.03 | | --- | --- | | 总市值/流通市值（百万元） | 8887.34/8887.34 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 15.88/7.11 | | 30 日日均成交量/成交额（百万） | 31.16/398.90 | | 近 3 个月/6 个月涨跌幅（%） | -21.56/-11.74 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]宫帅 SAC 执证号：S0260518070003 SFC CE No. BOB672 010-59 ...

[Table_Page] 公告点评|白酒Ⅱ 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 贵州茅台（600519.SH） 2024 圆满收官，经营韧性显现 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 请注意，符蓉并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册 持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 | DocReport] [Table_ 相关研究： | | | --- | --- | | 贵州茅台（600519.SH）:业 | 2024-10-27 | | 绩符合预期，稳步实现增长 | | | 目标 | | | 贵州茅台（600519.SH）:营 | 2024-08-09 | | 收略超预期，三年分红提信 | | | 心 | | | 贵州茅台（600519.SH）:营 | 2024-04-28 | | 收开门红，销售投入谋长远 | | | 盈利预测： | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_Finance] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [9] Core Insights - The company announced that the NDA for the combination therapy of Savolitinib and Osimertinib for treating MET-amplified EGFR-mutant NSCLC has been accepted by the National Medical Products Administration and is under priority review [5] - The company plans to use the proceeds from the sale of its 45% stake in Shanghai Henlius Biotech for further development of its internal product pipeline, including a new generation ADC platform [5] - The estimated reasonable value of the company is HKD 41.35 per share, with projected net profits of USD 0.05 million, USD 0.20 million, and USD 0.74 million for the years 2024 to 2026 respectively [5] Financial Summary - Main revenue is projected to grow from USD 426 million in 2022 to USD 838 million in 2023, followed by a decline to USD 641 million in 2024 [3] - EBITDA is expected to improve from a loss of USD 361 million in 2022 to a profit of USD 78 million in 2023, with a forecasted loss of USD 7 million in 2024 [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to turn from a loss of USD 361 million in 2022 to a profit of USD 101 million in 2023, and further to USD 5 million in 2024 [3] - The company’s EPS is expected to rise from -0.42 in 2022 to 0.12 in 2023, and reach 0.08 by 2026 [3] - The company’s ROE is projected to improve from -56.6% in 2022 to 13.6% in 2023, and reach 8.7% by 2026 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 37.36 CNY per share, corresponding to a PE of approximately 14x for 2025 [1][3][13]. Core Views - The company demonstrates strong confidence in its growth potential, as evidenced by its high performance targets for stock incentives, despite the pressure on new housing completion demand. The confidence stems from the comprehensive implementation of the "One Body, Two Wings, Global Layout" strategy and the potential for more external acquisitions encouraged by policy support [1][2][3]. Financial Projections - The projected net profits for the company from 2024 to 2026 are 38.9 billion CNY, 45.8 billion CNY, and 54.8 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 13.2, 11.2, and 9.3 [1][3]. - The company expects stable growth in its gypsum board business, with significant contributions from the waterproofing and coating segments following successful acquisitions and market expansion [2][3]. Business Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its core gypsum board business while expanding into complementary products such as light steel keel, powder mortar, mineral wool board, and other gypsum board-related products, which have shown significant growth in recent years [2]. - The waterproofing business has achieved high-quality growth since 2023, with revenue growth rates of 24% and 20% for 2023 and the first half of 2024, respectively [2]. - The coating business, bolstered by the integration of Jia Baoli, is expected to see substantial growth through both organic development and external acquisitions [2]. Stock Incentive Plan - The company announced a new stock incentive plan on January 1, 2025, proposing to grant up to 12.9 million shares, with performance targets set for net profit growth rates of no less than 14.22%, 16.12%, and 17.08% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [12][16].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several leading companies in the liquor industry, including Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, and others, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance [3][5][45]. Core Insights - The liquor industry has shown steady revenue growth, with the market share of leading companies significantly increasing from 20% in 2015 to 54% in 2023, while the top five companies' market share rose from 16% to 44% [12][57]. - Concerns about the sustainability of growth in the liquor sector have emerged, particularly regarding inventory levels and performance continuity, as evidenced by the divergence between ROE and stock price trends over the past two years [3][65]. - The report highlights a shift in investor sentiment, with some viewing the liquor industry as a "sunset industry," while others express concerns about high inventory levels and crowded trading positions [80][89]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Growth Potential of Leading Liquor Companies - The report discusses the growth potential of leading liquor companies, emphasizing the significant increase in market share and revenue among top players [57][91]. - It notes that the concentration ratio (CR5) in the liquor industry remains low compared to other consumer sectors, suggesting further growth opportunities [91]. Section 2: Analysis of Financial Statements - The report analyzes the financial statements of leading liquor companies, indicating a strong correlation between ROE and stock prices, with recent concerns about inventory and performance sustainability [3][65]. - It highlights that prepayments in the liquor industry have increased from 19.5 billion CNY in 2015 to 54.7 billion CNY in 2023, reflecting the industry's pricing power and future revenue potential [74]. Section 3: Fund Holdings and Market Positioning - The report examines the current positioning of liquor funds, noting that active equity funds have a relatively low allocation to liquor stocks compared to previous cycles, indicating a potential for reallocation [25][39]. - It mentions that the current fund holdings in the liquor sector are at 10.3%, higher than previous downturns, but still reflects a cautious approach from investors [39][45]. Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies for investment, including Jinshiyuan, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, and others, while also suggesting to keep an eye on Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye for their potential value [45][81].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 61.32 CNY per share based on a 2025 PS valuation of 9x [74]. Core Insights - The company has successfully broken the technological monopoly of Japanese firms and is now a leading global player in hybrid stepper motors. It has expanded its product matrix in servo motors and hollow cup motors, leveraging scale effects and cost advantages to steadily increase market share [73]. - The domestic replacement process for stepper motors is advancing, with the company expanding from low-end to high-end applications. The demand in traditional sectors is expected to recover, while new emerging sectors like factory automation and automotive electronics are driving growth [73]. - The company holds a first-mover advantage in the research and application of hollow cup motors, which are expected to meet the growing demand in humanoid robots. The global market for hollow cup motors is projected to grow significantly, with the company positioned as a potential supplier for leading robotics firms [74]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in motor products, breaking the monopoly of Japanese companies, with a wide range of applications in industrial automation, security, communication, automotive, and consumer sectors [6][5]. Product Segmentation - The company's revenue is primarily derived from control motors and their drive systems (82.29% of revenue, 39.0% gross margin), followed by power and lighting control systems (7.13% revenue, 37.1% gross margin), and trade-related activities (9.3% revenue, 20% gross margin) [8]. Market Position and Competitiveness - The company has made strategic acquisitions to enhance its technology and market presence, including AMP in 2014 and Technosoft Motion AG in 2018, which have expanded its product lines and customer base in North America and Europe [9][10]. Financial Performance - The company has maintained a high R&D expense ratio (9.40% in H1 2024), indicating a commitment to technological advancement and maintaining a competitive edge in core business areas [14]. Market Trends - The stepper motor market in China is expected to grow from 102.4 billion CNY in 2018 to 161 billion CNY in 2023, with a CAGR of 9.48%, driven by demand in consumer electronics, home appliances, and automotive electronics [20][21]. Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 2.42 billion CNY, 2.85 billion CNY, and 3.61 billion CNY from 2024 to 2026, with net profits reaching 84 million CNY, 178 million CNY, and 217 million CNY respectively [74].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 54.33 CNY per share, based on an 18x PE valuation for 2024 [1][2]. Core Insights - The company has established a strong brand presence in the U.S. market through its iHealth brand, particularly in home health monitoring devices, which has led to significant revenue growth [4][36]. - The company is expected to see a recovery in profitability driven by new product launches and the stabilization of its COVID-19 testing products, which have become mainstream [58][59]. - The home medical device market is experiencing a shift towards more personalized and intelligent health monitoring solutions, creating new opportunities for growth [33][61]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, originally focused on electronic blood pressure monitors, has extensive experience in overseas markets and has successfully expanded its product offerings [20][24]. - The iHealth brand has gained significant traction in the U.S. market, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to a substantial increase in overseas revenue [52][70]. Market Trends - The home medical device market is witnessing a trend of increased consumer adoption, driven by the need for convenient and easy-to-use health monitoring solutions [61][62]. - The demand for home diagnostic devices has surged, particularly for products like blood pressure monitors and glucose meters, as consumers become more health-conscious [33][61]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts a recovery in net profit, with expected figures of 1.481 billion CNY, 1.565 billion CNY, and 1.671 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][37]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 3.02 CNY, 3.19 CNY, and 3.41 CNY for the same years, indicating a positive growth trajectory [2][37]. Product Development and Strategy - The company has successfully launched new products, including a COVID-19 and flu combination test, which has received emergency use authorization in the U.S. [36][70]. - The diabetes care segment, particularly the O+O model, is showing promising growth, with significant partnerships established in the U.S. [36][70]. Competitive Position - The company has built a competitive edge in the U.S. market through its established brand and product offerings, which are well-positioned to meet ongoing health monitoring needs [36][70]. - The strategic focus on high-margin products, such as the new combination tests, is expected to enhance overall profitability [58][59].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" with a previous rating of "Buy" as well, reported on December 31, 2024 [40]. Core Insights - The automotive industry has seen a significant inventory reduction, with current inventory levels remaining low. As of November 2024, the passenger vehicle industry inventory stood at 3.774 million units, with a dynamic inventory-to-sales ratio of 2.0, indicating a robust inventory clearance [43]. - The domestic demand for passenger vehicles in November 2024 was 2.38 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24.1% and a month-on-month increase of 3.6%. Cumulative sales from January to November 2024 reached 20.192 million units, with an 8.2% year-on-year growth [40]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) continues to rise, with November 2024 NEV sales reaching 1.237 million units, a year-on-year increase of 61.1%. The penetration rates for NEVs were 48.3% and 52.0% for wholesale and insurance registration, respectively [40]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Policy Impact - The implementation of the vehicle replacement policy and local subsidies has shown positive effects, particularly for vehicles priced below 100,000 yuan, which saw significant sales increases [40]. Section 2: Market Performance - The report highlights the strong performance of domestic brands in the NEV segment, with a market share increase to 60.2% in 2024, up 9.0 percentage points from 2023 [40]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a "shelf-style" investment approach, recommending various companies based on their operational performance. Right-side targets include Geely, BYD, Li Auto, Seres, and Xpeng, while left-side targets include Great Wall Motors and Changan [24].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a "Hold" rating for the industry, expecting stock performance to fluctuate between -5% and +5% relative to the market over the next 12 months [71]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that AI large models are transforming business scenarios by enhancing value-added services, improving efficiency, and accelerating decision-making processes. This transformation is expected to significantly boost market competitiveness for enterprises [99]. - The concept of "Agent" is highlighted as a crucial trend for future development. AI Agents, as intelligent systems, can perceive and collect external data, recognize patterns, make decisions, and execute necessary actions. This adaptability makes them well-suited for B-end applications, where business scenarios are clearer and there is substantial industry knowledge and data accumulation [99]. Summary by Sections AI Large Models Empowering Business Scenarios - AI large models can analyze user behavior in real-time, creating detailed user profiles and matching suitable advertising content, thus enhancing marketing effectiveness [6][16]. - The integration of AI in CRM tools allows for more precise data analysis and personalized customer service, improving customer engagement and conversion rates [16][60]. Advertising and User Acquisition - Platforms like AppDiscovery have successfully improved user acquisition and advertising ROI for companies, demonstrating the effectiveness of AI in optimizing advertising strategies [9][10]. - The use of generative AI in advertising creative processes has significantly increased efficiency and quality, allowing for rapid adjustments based on market trends [10][11]. Software Development and Automation - AI large models are expected to automate traditional programming tasks, reducing error rates and development cycles by significant margins, such as a 20% reduction in development time [36][80]. - The report notes that the commercial value of AI applications in software development is higher due to their direct link to product development and revenue growth [80]. Future Trends and Market Dynamics - The report identifies that high ROI scenarios in B-end applications, such as software development, advertising, and CRM, will likely achieve product-market fit more rapidly due to their standardized tasks and clear efficiency demands [58][65]. - The competitive landscape is expected to intensify as AI-native startups emerge alongside traditional giants leveraging their resources and industry experience [67].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for multiple companies in the media industry, including Light Media, Mango Super Media, Wanda Film, and others, indicating a positive outlook on their stock performance [4]. Core Insights - ByteDance maintains a leading position in the generative AI era due to its internal competition mechanism, long-term traffic accumulation, strong monetization capabilities, and solid financial strength [3][7]. - The Doubao AI model family has rapidly gained traction, with daily token usage exceeding 4 trillion by December 2024, marking a growth of over 33 times since its launch [7][49]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the AI ecosystem being built by ByteDance, which includes large models, application development platforms, and various consumer applications [7][43]. Summary by Sections 1. ByteDance AI Layout - ByteDance's AI strategy is divided into four layers: large models (Doubao), intermediate layers (AI application development platforms), application layers (C-end apps and AI hardware), and underlying technology architecture (cloud and data) [7][43]. - The Doubao model family includes various models such as general models, visual understanding, and music models, with significant updates announced in December 2024 [7][49]. 2. Intermediate Layer - The "Kouzi" platform significantly lowers the barrier for AI application developers, allowing users without programming skills to create various bots easily [56][58]. - As of December 2024, the Kouzi platform has over 1 million active developers and has published more than 2 million intelligent agents, covering multiple application scenarios [56][58]. 3. Application Layer - ByteDance's AI Q&A app "Doubao" has become the second most used AI application globally and the top in China as of November 2024 [63]. - The report highlights the success of other C-end AI applications, including the AI companion app "Cat Box," which has seen significant downloads and daily active users [63]. 4. Financial Strength and Market Position - ByteDance's strong financial capabilities support its AI initiatives, allowing for continued investment in model training and inference needs [3][7]. - The report suggests that the ongoing improvements in AI model capabilities and decreasing computational costs will enhance the potential for various industry applications, including gaming, film, marketing, and education [20].